TE 4-6: fool’s gold or league winners? (3 Viewers)

[TripItUp]

Hock is the safest pick as his floor is TE5.  You also don't have to pay a premium to draft him so his value is high.  He also has upside to TE1.   Goff is going to make a lot of safe throws and that means a ton of targets to the TE and the slot.  Hock will have a significant point edge over any TE drafted after TE6. 

Devil's advocate on Hock

1) Offense could be terrible, as a result limited redzone targets and ulitmately low TD total for Hock

2) Couldn't stay healthy rookie season

 

[JohnnyU]

Hock is the safest pick as his floor is TE5.  You also don't have to pay a premium to draft him so his value is high.  He also has upside to TE1.   Goff is going to make a lot of safe throws and that means a ton of targets to the TE and the slot.  Hock will have a significant point edge over any TE drafted after TE6. 

....but the question is, at what cost?  The reason I say if you can't get one of the top 4 then wait until the end.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He's not a WR though...at least he won't be lining up as such.  

That's what he's been lining up as in practice, according to many reports by beat writers. He is a big WR. He is unlikely to block in this offense. He's been used in the slot, split out to both sides, and only occasionally in-line like a move TE. 

His primary role is as a WR. Once you accept that, you can start to see how his projections might be less susceptible to the "TE 1st year bust" dialogue. 

ETA: https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-draft-prep-how-kyle-pitts-practices-in-miami-shine-light-on-falcons-rookies-2021-potential/

 

[fightingillini]

First, I see Hock as the best receiver in Detroit.  I look at the 115 targets to Marvin Jones being vacated, the same way everyone seems to look at Julio Jones targets in ATL being distributed to Pitts' side.  If you take the receptions from the loss of Amendola/Marvin Jones and Golladay and give 20% of those targets that gives him around 95 targets.  I can conservatively say - 90 catches for 900 yards and with his 6 TD's from last year staying equal - 162 points.  That to me, is the floor for Hock.

You do know that Jared Goff is the QB and not Matthew Stafford?  DET is going to be a dumpster fire this year.

 

[TripItUp]

That's what he's been lining up as in practice, according to many reports by beat writers. He is a big WR. He is unlikely to block in this offense. He's been used in the slot, split out to both sides, and only occasionally in-line like a move TE. 

His primary role is as a WR. Once you accept that, you can start to see how his projections might be less susceptible to the "TE 1st year bust" dialogue. 

Okay, let's say he only lines up as a WR, which I find hard to believe since he's listed as a TE...but we'll go with it.

In the history of the NFL, what percentage of rookie first round WRs finished near the top of the TE position?

 

[TripItUp]

You do know that Jared Goff is the QB and not Matthew Stafford?  DET is going to be a dumpster fire this year.

correct...he might get the targets and receptions, he aint getting the TDs.

 

[jon_mx]

Devil's advocate on Hock

1) Offense could be terrible, as a result limited redzone targets and ulitmately low TD total for Hock

2) Couldn't stay healthy rookie season

He has played 28 of 32 games.  Even Goff at his worse will throw for 4,200 and 25 TDs.   Good offensive line.  Good RB.  There is zero chance the Lions offense is as bad as the experts say.  It is a mediocre mid-tier offense which only serious weakness is not having a stud WR.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You do know that Jared Goff is the QB and not Matthew Stafford?  DET is going to be a dumpster fire this year.

The negative hyperbole on DET is getting to the point that there's some value there. 

Take TyWill at the end of your draft & thank me later. He's likely to be the WR1 on a team desperate for weapons & will be a beneficiary of volume play. 

Hock will get peppered because they lack better targets. 

Goff is not a great QB. He doesn't have a big arm. He's at times been awful. But he is capable of running an offense to the point where his receivers had productive seasons. See: Woods, Kupp, for examples. 

If the OC is even halfway decent, they'll shorten routes for their receivers & have Hock as a safety valve, thus catering to Goff's strengths. I think Hock will be fine despite the downgrade from Stafford to Goff.  I do agree that there will be fewer RZ opportunities, but for PPR it's a little less important and could be off-set by more receptions. 

 

[sho nuff]

can’t remember the last time I saw 64 people vote in a poll & have it still be this close.

Thats crazy. 

Its a great topic...sort of polarizing as there are just so many ways to go.  Many are like me and its hard to give up that high draft capital on a top guy...so we go back and forth on the virtues of that 4-6 or punt and stream.  Ive gone back and forth and probably still won't know what I will do til its my pick on draft day.  Ive mocked with a top TE and like some aspects of my team and others not...same for the other positions.  I think depth at WR this year makes this something Im considering more and more trying to get a top guy or that 4-6 range.   I do the same thing when I start thinking when I might take a QB.

 

[TripItUp]

He has played 28 of 32 games.  Even Goff at his worse will throw for 4,200 and 25 TDs.   Good offensive line.  Good RB.  There is zero chance the Lions offense is as bad as the experts say.  It is a mediocre mid-tier offense which only serious weakness is not having a stud WR.  

Personally, I'm taking the under on offense #16 and it's not close.   

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Okay, let's say he only lines up as a WR, which I find hard to believe since he's listed as a TE...but we'll go with it.

In the history of the NFL, what percentage of rookie first round WRs finished near the top of the TE position?

Wow - that's....quite the logical leap. 

How about comparing him to rookie Calvin Johnson? That's been the most common comp. 

It's irrelevant what "rookie WR finished near the top of the TE position" - for FF purposes all we need to be concerned with is his usage. And if he's used as a WR primarily (see the link I added to the last post) then we would compare him to rookie WR production. 

Which should easily blow away most rookie TEs. 

That's why he's valuable in FF. I didn't think that would need explaining. 

 

[fightingillini]

....but the question is, at what cost?  The reason I say if you can't get one of the top 4 then wait until the end.

Agree.  Why take 75 rec for 800 yds and 5TDs in the 5th round, when you can get a QB like Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson at a similar ADP?

If you're going to go with a 4-6 TE, I think that you have to roll the dice and go with Pitts and his upside.  That said, is ADP is about 1 round higher than Hockenson and and 1/2 round higher than Andrews.

 

[TripItUp]

How about comparing him to rookie Calvin Johnson? That's been the most common comp. 

You want to compare Pitts to a Hall of Famer WR?

I'd start with highly drafted WRs over the past 5 years as my dataset for your "he's a WR argument"...but that's just me.

 

[TripItUp]

If you're going to go with a 4-6 TE, I think that you have to roll the dice and go with Pitts and his upside.  That said, is ADP is about 1 round higher than Hockenson and and 1/2 round higher than Andrews.

What do you think Pitts' upside is?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Its a great topic...sort of polarizing as there are just so many ways to go.  Many are like me and its hard to give up that high draft capital on a top guy...so we go back and forth on the virtues of that 4-6 or punt and stream.  Ive gone back and forth and probably still won't know what I will do til its my pick on draft day.  Ive mocked with a top TE and like some aspects of my team and others not...same for the other positions.  I think depth at WR this year makes this something Im considering more and more trying to get a top guy or that 4-6 range.   I do the same thing when I start thinking when I might take a QB.

Agree - the hardest part for me is that even if my build by BPA though 4 rounds is 2 RB, 2 WR, then that 5th pick could be 

1. elite QB (not really my style, but if a Murray falls to me in the 4th that's hard to pass up) 

2. one of the last "feature backs" - I've seen Jacobs, Henderson & Davis fall there frequently) - which gives valuable depth to a volatile and also limited position, and give you a flex player if that's your league format

3. last tier of really solid WR2s (some of whom have WR1 upside)

So...taking a TE misses all that, and potentially puts one behind the 8-ball playing catch-up at RB and WR. And if your next 2 picks are RB/WR, your QB is unlikely to be one of the elite guys either. 

It's a very difficult jigsaw puzzle to solve. 

 

[JohnnyU]

What do you think Pitts' upside is?

If you're talking about rookie upside, then I'll say 800/7.  I do however see his peak upside as 1000+/double digit TDs.

 

[sho nuff]

Agree - the hardest part for me is that even if my build by BPA though 4 rounds is 2 RB, 2 WR, then that 5th pick could be 

1. elite QB (not really my style, but if a Murray falls to me in the 4th that's hard to pass up) 

2. one of the last "feature backs" - I've seen Jacobs, Henderson & Davis fall there frequently) - which gives valuable depth to a volatile and also limited position, and give you a flex player if that's your league format

3. last tier of really solid WR2s (some of whom have WR1 upside)

So...taking a TE misses all that, and potentially puts one behind the 8-ball playing catch-up at RB and WR. And if your next 2 picks are RB/WR, your QB is unlikely to be one of the elite guys either. 

It's a very difficult jigsaw puzzle to solve. 

Part of why I love this little game.

 

[jon_mx]

Personally, I'm taking the under on offense #16 and it's not close.   

They will end up top 20.  It will be a ball control offense, the Lions will not put up big stats.  But they will be effective at moving the ball and eating up clock.  Goff will have a better rating than half the other starters.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You want to compare Pitts to a Hall of Famer WR?

I'd start with highly drafted WRs over the past 5 years as my dataset for your "he's a WR argument"...but that's just me.

Highly drafted WRs is fine, too. That's not exactly what you said. You also could have quoted the rest of my post for a better discussion. 

Also, I'm not the one making the Calvin Johnson comparison. I said it's the one I've seen most commonly since before the NFL draft & during the preseason. Physically it's not a bad comparison. He's long, fast and not as thickly built as Kittle, and he's got great hands & runs crisp routes. 

So saying he's going to be a bust because he's a TE seems a bit shortsighted. All due respect. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you're talking about rookie upside, then I'll say 800/7.  I do however see his peak upside as 1000+/double digit TDs.

I think his ceiling is 90/1200/12

I would draft him for 70/800/9 in the 5th in a heartbeat.  That would easily justify a 5th round selection. 

 

[TripItUp]

So saying he's going to be a bust because he's a TE seems a bit shortsighted. All due respect. 

I'm not saying he's a "bust"...haven't even implied that.

I do believe he is overvalued...and not only because he's a TE, but because he's a rookie Tightend with an alpha WR1...and of course I love some sleeper TEs like Logan Thomas/Irv Smith.

The value based drafting thing matters.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think his ceiling is 90/1200/12

I would draft him for 70/800/9 in the 5th in a heartbeat.  That would easily justify a 5th round selection. 

Sorry, I misread that.  I'll just say those in dynasty should consider Pitts early, but I understand those in redraft not wanting to use a high pick on him.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Agree.  Why take 75 rec for 800 yds and 5TDs in the 5th round, when you can get a QB like Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson at a similar ADP?

If you're going to go with a 4-6 TE, I think that you have to roll the dice and go with Pitts and his upside.  That said, is ADP is about 1 round higher than Hockenson and and 1/2 round higher than Andrews.

It's been climbing, yeah.  The last few mocks I've done had Pitts -> Hock -> Andrews. 

Pitts most frequently late 4th, but I've seen him make the 4.12 turn, and if I'm team 1.01 CMC, I'm likely rolling the dice on Pitts there 100/100 times. But it also depends on what else is on the board. 

But Andrews & Hock are both mid-to-late 5th pretty commonly & that seems like solid value. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You can't think that way in dynasty, but I understand that thinking in redraft.

Sure - in dynasty I'm good with whatever he gives me this year. I'm hoping he develops into that next TGonz/Kelce though long-term. 

Redraft I like the 70 reception projection, and he'd still have at shot at double digit TDs considering the way he's used. 

 

[TripItUp]

I think his ceiling is 90/1200/12

I would draft him for 70/800/9 in the 5th in a heartbeat.  That would easily justify a 5th round selection. 

Mike Clay, probably the most universally cited ff projector in the world has Pitts at 

72 Receptions

846 Yards

6 TDS

It's not a stretch to say your ceiling is crazytown.

 

[JohnnyU]

It's been climbing, yeah.  The last few mocks I've done had Pitts -> Hock -> Andrews. 

Pitts most frequently late 4th, but I've seen him make the 4.12 turn, and I'm teams 1.01 CMC, I'm rolling the dice on Pitts there 100/100 times. 

But Andrews & Hock are both mid-to-late 5th pretty commonly & that seems like solid value. 

I wouldn't spend a 5th on Andrews even with the injury issues in Baltimore.

 

[TripItUp]

But Andrews & Hock are both mid-to-late 5th pretty commonly & that seems like solid value. 

Terrible value if you have lower TEs projected similarly or even higher.

 

[TripItUp]

I wouldn't spend a 5th on Andrews even with the injury issues in Baltimore.

Nor would I, and it's not remotely close.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Mike Clay, probably the most universally cited ff projector has Pitts at 

72 Receptions

846 Yards

6 TDS

It's not a stretch to say your ceiling is crazytown.

It's a bit insulting  though. 

Mike Clay can have his opinion and I can have mine. I said "ceiling" - like "what is the best season he could possibly have"

When I look at the situation he's in and the way he's used, that's what I come up with. 

It might not be right, but it's not crazy either, thanks. 

 

[Anarchy99]

What's the best rookie TE season in the history of the NFL?

Let's start there for all the Pitts drafters.

Pitts is terrible at ADP IMHO...just terrible..

Since 2000, here are the Top 10 scoring rookie TEs in PPR leagues . . .

Shockey (2012) - 175.4 (2)
Engram (2017) - 173.6 (5)
Gronk (2010) - 156.6 (11)
Carlson (2008) - 147.7 (7)
Hernandez (2010) - 142 (14)
Wright (2013) - 141.3 (13)
Henry (2016) - 132.2 (19)
Miller (2005) - 120.9 (15)
Moeaki (2010) - 120.6 (17)
Herndon (2018) - 113.2 (16)

Pitts would basically have to be the highest scoring rookie TE in 20 years to earn back his draft position . . . and that still might not get him up to TE4.

 

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

You do know that Jared Goff is the QB and not Matthew Stafford?  DET is going to be a dumpster fire this year.

Appreciate the insight.  Even if the Lions fall to the bottom 10 offenses in the league - they still would post 350-ish yards with 250 of those yards being passing due to negative game script.  There are 3 guys in that offense worth owning at their ADP and I am sorry... Hockenson is definitely one of them.  To answer your question about drafting TE over QB - positional scarcity is why you take a 200 pt/year TE over a 330 pt/year QB... draft on tho. 

 

[TripItUp]

Since 2000, here are the Top 10 scoring rookie TEs in PPR leagues . . .

Shockey (2012) - 175.4 (2)
Engram (2017) - 173.6 (5)
Gronk (2010) - 156.6 (11)
Carlson (2008) - 147.7 (7)
Hernandez (2010) - 142 (14)
Wright (2013) - 141.3 (13)
Henry (2016) - 132.2 (19)
Miller (2005) - 120.9 (15)
Moeaki (2010) - 120.6 (17)
Herndon (2018) - 113.2 (16)

Pitts would basically have to be the highest scoring rookie TE in 20 years to earn back his draft position . . . and that still might not get him up to TE4.

 

Exactly.

 

[SoBeDad]

If you're talking about rookie upside, then I'll say 800/7.  I do however see his peak upside as 1000+/double digit TDs.

3rd round rookie Jimmy Graham caught 5 TDs playing behind Shockey. I think double digit TDs for Pitts is likely. Hurst is below average and Matt Ryan is still a top QB. 

Pitts got open at will in the practices in Miami, using size and speed. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm not saying he's a "bust"...haven't even implied that.

I do believe he is overvalued...and not only because he's a TE, but because he's a rookie Tightend with an alpha WR1...and of course I love some sleeper TEs like Logan Thomas/Irv Smith.

The value based drafting thing matters.

Well, you edited your post, but you still say 

Pitts is terrible at ADP IMHO...just terrible.

Which heavily implies you believe he's a bust, so....

I get it. You don't like Pitts. It's ok - you can have that opinion. But you should stick to a narrative. Is he going to be terrible at his ADP because he's a TE? That was your initial assertion.  But now you know he's going  to be a receiver as his primary role and you seem to be moving the goalposts to suit your dislike of Pitts at his ADP. 

I may not draft him in redraft, but the potential for a genre-breaking season is absolutely on the table. He's going to be given the opportunity to be an elite receiver for Atlanta, regardless of what his position is listed as. 

Maybe when he's catching a touchdown you should write the Falcons a letter saying, "but he's listed as a TE!"   

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Since 2000, here are the Top 10 scoring rookie TEs in PPR leagues . . .

Shockey (2012) - 175.4 (2)
Engram (2017) - 173.6 (5)
Gronk (2010) - 156.6 (11)
Carlson (2008) - 147.7 (7)
Hernandez (2010) - 142 (14)
Wright (2013) - 141.3 (13)
Henry (2016) - 132.2 (19)
Miller (2005) - 120.9 (15)
Moeaki (2010) - 120.6 (17)
Herndon (2018) - 113.2 (16)

Pitts would basically have to be the highest scoring rookie TE in 20 years to earn back his draft position . . . and that still might not get him up to TE4.

 

Now do the top 10 scoring rookie WRs. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Appreciate the insight.  Even if the Lions fall to the bottom 10 offenses in the league - they still would post 350-ish yards with 250 of those yards being passing due to negative game script.  There are 3 guys in that offense worth owning at their ADP and I am sorry... Hockenson is definitely one of them.  To answer your question about drafting TE over QB - positional scarcity is why you take a 200 pt/year TE over a 330 pt/year QB... draft on tho. 

Agreed. I assume Swift & TyWill are the other 2? I'm not sure how I feel about Swift at his ADP..

 

[TripItUp]

3rd round rookie Jimmy Graham caught 5 TDs playing behind Shockey. I think double digit TDs for Pitts is likely.

Whoa there buddy, what do you think Vegas over under is...my guess is around 6.

"Likely" is probably not the word you want to go with there.

Maybe "possible" is a better word.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Mike Clay, probably the most universally cited ff projector in the world has Pitts at 

btw, the Bible is the most frequently cited book in the world. Do you believe the Earth is 5000 years old & that every man, woman and child on Earth came from Adam & Eve? Noah literally herded up 2 of every animal except for the poor unicorns who missed the boat? 

Appeals to authority fallacies aren't always the best way to make a point. I'm just sayin. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Whoa there buddy, what do you think Vegas over under is...my guess is around 6.

"Likely" is probably not the word you want to go with there.

Maybe "possible" is a better word.

OK, so if double digit TDs are "possible", then wouldn't his ADP be more justified? 

 

[TripItUp]

Which heavily implies you believe he's a bust, so....  

He's overvalued at a minimum, could easily be a bust.  But I am not definitely stating he's a bust.  

I get it. You don't like Pitts. It's ok - you can have that opinion

Pitts is a great talent, I've seen all his tape.   I don't like him for fantasy purposes this year for reasons stated.

. But you shoud stick to a narrative. Is he going to be terrible at his ADP because he's a TE? That was your initial assertion.  But now you know he's going  to be a receiver as his primary role and you seem to be moving the goalposts to suit your dislike of Pitts at his ADP. 

Everybody knows he will be lining up as a WR on some plays...that's been happening since Shannon Sharpe in the 90s.  This isn't groundbreaking stuff.  And there are a lot of other reasons to no like Pitts at his ADP other than what position he's listed at.

I may not draft him in redraft, but the potential for a genre-breaking season is absolutely on the table. He's going to be given the opportunity to be an elite receiver for Atlanta, regardless of what his position is listed as. 

I'm not sure what a genre breaking season means to you, but you should know that most of the top analysts have Pitts around what Mike Clay has him at.  You can disagree with all of those guys, but just know you are an outlier if you disagree by a lot.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Agreed. I assume Swift & TyWill are the other 2? I'm not sure how I feel about Swift at his ADP..

Yes they are.  I participated in a redraft last night - Swift fell to 4.04.  I guess I was drafting with a bunch of guys that were going to let the "Lions dumpster fire offense" - go undrafted.  I call that value.  TyWill is going to get targets too.  You are getting a #1 WR, who is going to be forcefed the ball by a somewhat capable QB, in the end of the draft.  Value trumps whatever preconceived ideas someone has about a team.  

 

[TripItUp]

OK, so if double digit TDs are "possible", then wouldn't his ADP be more justified? 

Nope.  This is a game of probabilities...per Las Vegas odds, I'm guessing double digit TDs are something like 5 to 1 odds.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You can disagree with all of those guys, but just know you are an outlier if you disagree by a lot.

And I'm ok with that - those guys are right about as often as I am. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yes they are.  I participated in a redraft last night - Swift fell to 4.04.  I guess I was drafting with a bunch of guys that were going to let the "Lions dumpster fire offense" - go undrafted.  I call that value.  TyWill is going to get targets too.  You are getting a #1 WR, who is going to be forcefed the ball by a somewhat capable QB, in the end of the draft.  Value trumps whatever preconceived ideas someone has about a team.  

Wow - I would 100% take Swift in the 3rd, and no-brainer in the 4th 

That's what I was eluding to above - the narrative that Goff is going to be a disaster. Goff has shown more than a few starting QBs the last few years so I'm thinking this has swung way too far to the hyperbole & agree that there's value in that dumpster fire. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Now do the top 10 scoring rookie WRs. 

Odell Beckham (2014) - 297 (7)
Anquan Boldin (2003 ) - 289.7 (3)
Justin Jefferson (2020) - 270.2 (7)
Michael Thomas (2016) - 259.7 (7)
Mike Evans (2014) - 245.1 (4)
Michael Clayton (2004) - 244.3 (14)
Eddie Royal (2008) - 229.9 (16)
Mike Williams (2010) - 227.4 (16)
Keenan Allen (2013) - 223.6 (18)
Marques Colston (2006) - 221.8 (17)

If you are asserting Pitts is a WR in wolves clothing, I think that is a bit of an exaggeration. IMO, he's a TE that will see some looks as a WR. But that does not equate to him being a WR.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Odell Beckham (2014) - 297 (7)
Anquan Boldin (2003 ) - 289.7 (3)
Justin Jefferson (2020) - 270.2 (7)
Michael Thomas (2016) - 259.7 (7)
Mike Evans (2014) - 245.1 (4)
Michael Clayton (2004) - 244.3 (14)
Eddie Royal (2008) - 229.9 (16)
Mike Williams (2010) - 227.4 (16)
Keenan Allen (2013) - 223.6 (18)
Marques Colston (2006) - 221.8 (17)

If you are asserting Pitts is a WR in wolves clothing, I think that is a bit of an exaggeration. IMO, he's a TE that will see some looks as a WR. But that does not equate to him being a WR.

Let's say I'm 70% right. (according to the team, beat writers & just about everyone tweeting watching practices, he's more than 70% WR) 

Would 70% of the average of those 10 above be worth a 4-5 round selection in redraft? 

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

I guess the question I have for @TripItUp is where does Pitts rate this year and who are you willing to take in Redraft instead of him?

I think you have already stated you aren't willing to pony up any capital for a TE in rounds 5 or 6... Who are you expecting to hit big and why?

 

[TripItUp]

If you are asserting Pitts is a WR in wolves clothing, I think that is a bit of an exaggeration. IMO, he's a TE that will see some looks as a WR. But that does not equate to him being a WR.

Correct.

 

[Anarchy99]

Let's say I'm 70% right. (according to the team, beat writers & just about everyone tweeting watching practices, he's more than 70% WR) 

Would 70% of the average of those 10 above be worth a 4-5 round selection in redraft? 

MFL has his ADP at 45. IMO, there are more proven picks (across multiple positions) I would rather have than a rookie TE at that spot. (This year, I wouldn't want to draft any TE there.)

The other thing you are ascribing to Pitts is that he is not only top of the rookie food chain at TE . . . but top of the rookie food chain as a WR. I think people are drafting him needing him to hit on all cylinders to reach his ceiling as a rookie (he will do better in future years). Drafting guys at their ceiling leaves no margin for error . . . and with rookies there is more risk than an established commodity.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

TBH, I'm expecting to miss on all of the top 6 TEs. It's just the way my drafts have rolled the last decade. I realize I sound like team Pitts rah rah cheerleader here, and while I do expect him to break the mold of rookie TEs due to his expected usage, I am unlikely to pony up a 4th round price for him (5.01 is a different story if I'm fortunate enough to draw the 1st pick) 

I have a list of guys that I would happily stack up 2-3 of, but it's funny how so many folks are on both sides of them. Likely why their ADP is much lower. I like Fant at his ADP, Higgins, Irv Smith, Gesecki and a host of others. But for every Shark I see projecting quality seasons from those dudes, I see 2 sharks explaining why it won't happen. 

Chances are good I end up with some combination of the above, hoping I pick the right one to start each week. Over the last few years, the position is just such a crap shoot that it's very tempting to pay the price for a little more consistency.