WaltonGoggins
Footballguy
Starting over Kincaid.
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TE Brenton Strange, Jax (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Terpman22
- Start date
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
I totally messed up and didn’t start him over feirmuth. Could cost me.
smcindoe
Footballguy
I've got the same call to make. Did you hesitate at all?
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Strange in currently over Kraft
WaltonGoggins
Footballguy
not really but could see Kincaid doing well or better but thought Strange should have greater chance for more targets in my 1 ppr league.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
People are Strange
saviorself
Footballguy
I lost my game anyway, but Ferguson will probably go 8 for 70 yards and a TD tonight.
Insein
Footballguy
He better not.
BespokeJort
Footballguy
Engram cut. Potentially a good cheap dart here; I can’t see the price getting too high
Wow, surprised they dumped Kirk and Engram, figured it'd be one or the other.
I could see them being in on TE on day 2, and WR perhaps even earlier, but for now, Strange stands to inherit a sizeable role.
I thought that most likely both Kirk and Engram would be cut, for sure Engram after hearing what their new GM was saying about Strange last week. The kind of comments that don't have me really worried about him being replaced with a high draft pick TE in the draft.
Because I thought one or both would be cut I oaded up on Washington and Strange last season, 75% of my teams have one of them on it, half of them have both of them on it. These are all TEP leagues with smaller rosters and stressing on how to keep both of them, but I'll find a way on Strange without a doubt, not as interested in Parker who unlike Strange I do worry about draft or FA comp.
Faust
MVP
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Random thought as I was trying to lookup Strange’s stats, @FBG Help Desk should update their game logs.
FYI I brought this to their attention a few weeks ago. All the 2024 stats are missing from the players pages and the data dominator. It's annoying, surprised no one has been bringing this up.
We haven't forgotten about your issue. We're ramping up for the 2025 season and will have this data available shortly.
BespokeJort
Footballguy
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Yeah you don't pay anything of real value for a guy who has done nothing through 2 years, no matter how high the arrow is pointing.
Similarly if you own him, why would you get rid of him now when he might have some real value in a few months?
Similarly if you own him, why would you get rid of him now when he might have some real value in a few months?
Mentioned this in the trade thread yesterday but I got a TEP league where I have him and Engram and won't have room to keep both when cuts are due end of month. My initial plan after Engram was cut by Jax was to cut or trade him and keep Strange. After Engram landed in Denver I decided I'd prefer to keep Engram, would try to trade Strange but was still open to moving Engram if the right deal came along.
Best offer I got for Engram as someone saying they "might" give 2.8 for Engram if I included 3.9. I would not have done that for value but also for other reasons I won't get into was just not going to send Engram to that team. Multiple offers I made giving Strange just go rejections without comment or "not interested at all in Strange". Got one counter and it was ridicilous, 4.3 for Strange and 4.9.
I ended up just packaging both of them for Njoku who got me 2 years younger then Engram and IMO better as I have Njoku as TE4.
Personally I think people are not high enough on Strange. I just did not have roster space but do intend to keep him in 2 other leagues. I'm not sure he'll be great, not predicting it. He has really high draft pedigree but that was mainly for this blocking. But I thought he was really strong at the catch point, moves really well and all the good words the Jags are saying about him makes me think he should be in that TE 15'sh range, in that deep middle class of TE's.
Best offer I got for Engram as someone saying they "might" give 2.8 for Engram if I included 3.9. I would not have done that for value but also for other reasons I won't get into was just not going to send Engram to that team. Multiple offers I made giving Strange just go rejections without comment or "not interested at all in Strange". Got one counter and it was ridicilous, 4.3 for Strange and 4.9.
I ended up just packaging both of them for Njoku who got me 2 years younger then Engram and IMO better as I have Njoku as TE4.
Personally I think people are not high enough on Strange. I just did not have roster space but do intend to keep him in 2 other leagues. I'm not sure he'll be great, not predicting it. He has really high draft pedigree but that was mainly for this blocking. But I thought he was really strong at the catch point, moves really well and all the good words the Jags are saying about him makes me think he should be in that TE 15'sh range, in that deep middle class of TE's.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
He's gone up 3-4 spots on KTC since Engram was moved (TE21), but I'm with you. Right now he's towards the end of the TE2 pile, but I think that's in part because people have "seen it before" from a lot of those other guys right above him and a little bit of TLaw fatigue.
I think I'd have him closer to a high end TE2 with a chance to be low end TE1 depending how things shake out in the draft. I'd probably have him around TE15 like you said; ahead of guys like Ferguson, Otton, Kmet, Jonnu, and Freirmuth. Most of those TEs are on teams with questionable/worse QB situation and with more receiving weapons than the Jags currently have. And I'm still a Trevor-truther. Trying to gobble him up in leagues that have him valued like KTC consensus as ~QB20ish.
I own both Engram and Strange as well. Best offer for Engram was 4th and 5th round picks for 2026. Strange was mostly attempts at larger trades where I was supposed to "throw him in to balance it out" lol. I think his value is beyond a deal sweetener at this point. Besides, after a few rejected offers for different higher tier players where Strange was always the "throw in", it became obvious he was the actual target.
Yeah absolutely
Once his value went up I had to adjust my point of view too
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't see how a guy that's never cracked a hundred fantasy points is all of the sudden ahead of a guy who was TE5 last year overall and scored 244 points or so in TE premium, finishing just behind Kelce (by a point). It just . . . doesn't make sense. And this is with Tua missing all that time during which the offense was basically not functioning.
Neither does it make sense that he's ahead of Otton. Otton had 178 points to finish TE12 overall last year and he missed Weeks 16 and 17. He's got Baker still there as his QB.
I don't think it's even close. This guy isn't them and more competition will likely be brought in.
eta* And I don't want to jump down your throat. At least you're putting guys out there so we can see your thought process. I just really disagree with two of them.
Oddly enough, the guy who has been OC in Tampa as Otton gradually got better and better is now the head coach in Jax.
I’m cautiously optimistic that there could be something there with Strange, but he’s got to dodge the draft in a very deep TE class.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, no doubt. I don't know. I don't see that sort of elevation in the rankings for Strange as wise or prudent. Perhaps I'll be wrong, but I'd definitely rather have two guys in the prime of their careers than a guy with a new coach and play caller. The advantage Strange has is that right now there is not that much in the way of competition for targets, but I'll bet Jax goes WR in the first or adds a good TE in the draft to compete. Then we'll see what he has got.
Strange is reasonably athletic and had what Player Profiler says are six explosive plays last year, so he's got some ability, but I don't see how you have him over Jonnu or Otton at this very second. Smith's athleticism is in somewhat of a different orbit than Strange and he's done it with his current QB and current coaching staff. How much they repeat the disaster that was last year remains to be seen (and it's why Jonnu's price is stunningly—to me—so very low in dynasty TE Prem), but I'd bet he finishes in the top twelve overall or at least on a PPG basis should he get hurt.
Strange? I wouldn't quite make that bet yet.
Otton isn't nearly the athlete Strange is, so I think you'd have more of an argument there. You've got Evans, McMillan, and Godwin, and Otton thrived only when Godwin went down last year, so I can see that argument a little more than Jonnu.
We shall see.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I get it. Consensus is what it is because the majority of people think exactly what you do, not what I do. It also means you're the odds on favorite for being correct in your take, not me lol.
Otton is pretty simple for me, I just think Strange is the better player since "scouting" (term used loosely) them both coming out. I think Otton has been getting the opportunities/targets I'm projecting Strange to get now for this season, and I think Strange will do more with them. I also wouldn't be surprised if Strange winds up getting more work; don't think he will hit Engrams routes run/targets, but I think he'll be closer to that than where Otton has been the past two season. And lastly, I just see Evans, Godwin, and McMillan as likely being more stiff competition than what Strange has to compete with.
Jonnu is definitely a hotter take, but similar to Otton outside me thinking Strange is flat out a better player than him. Most of the other points apply with regards to routes run/targets/competition (Hill/Waddle/Achane). Probably the biggest thing though is your point about Tua is also my point haha. I think Jonnu had the season he did largely because that offense was playing pretty banged up. Tua missed 6 games, but also Hill was not Hill for the majority of the season (apparently a wrist injury). I think Jonnu stepped up in a major way and put up a great season. But it came wildly out of left field. He went undrafted in the majority of fantasy drafts and was waiver wire hero for most people who wound up riding him into the playoffs. I just don't think that was Miami's offensive plan coming into last year, and I doubt it will be the plan for this year either.
While I would put Strange ahead of both for myself based on the above and just shooting for upside, it's without a doubt a projection built on optimism. And even then, I'd say Strange is just incrementally ahead of those guys in a large flat tier moreso than I think he's going to crush their numbers or that I don't think Jonnu and Otton are any good. I think Otton probably has the highest/safest floor of the 3, and Jonnu's ceiling has already been shown to be a possibility where Strange's is very much seen through rose tinted glasses. I wouldn't balk at anyone having both ahead of Strange. But ultimately, especially looking at overall ADP and value grades; I do think Strange is still being undervalued as I think he does belong closer to those two in ADP/value, even if people still have him ranked behind them positionally.
rockaction
Footballguy
Fair enough in analysis. You provide good reasons in the other parts of your post. Jonnu may very well turn out to be fool's gold unless you had him last year, and both he and Otton have three pass catchers to contend with (and Otton isn't incredibly athletic).
I really think that rankings are tough this time of year when the teams haven't really told you how they feel about guys necessarily. The draft is such a key piece of the puzzle, but an FF player's job is somehow to anticipate all of it and capitalize on values where they exist right now. I think one wins this game (dynasty or redraft FF) by beating consensus before everything happens and before everyone has perfect information, so I admire your efforts and ability to step away from consensus and offer a rational opinion regarding why you're doing so.
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pinkstapler
Footballguy
Truer words haven't been spoken on the bolded; and it feels like this year more so than most (but that could just be another in the moment feeling like how we always think next years class will stink haha). I'd say at least the RB and TE positions have the most room to shake up things with the draft and can be hard to project. Some of my favorite RB landing spots already made some acquisitions where I have to wonder if they will really take a swing at the position now (like the Chargers, but also what are the Cowboys doing?!?), or at least a real meaningful swing (first 3/4 rounds).
Much appreciated complement from you though. One of the last frontiers of fantasy I've yet to explore but still have a great desire to is a DEVY league, I just don't think I watch enough college ball during the season to fully commit. I wouldn't mind the challenge of at least attempting a dynasty rookie draft pre-NFL draft though in place of a full blown DEVY league, as I do find it the most fun making some bold calls and projections with incomplete information. My interest in fantasy anymore starts to wane by playoff time of most league years; and oddly enough it tends to be at it's highest in February/March/April. Once we get to June/July/August it feels like the (perceived and probably self-embellished) lead in the race I've been running for a few months is cut to a negligible distance by all the late comers just because of the onslaught of information from media and fantasy analysis. I'm sure some of the fanatics on this board know the pangs of lost opportunity watching the guys you pegged as sleepers around this time of year start jumping up full rounds in ADP by the end of summer as the rest of the community is catching up on things.
rockaction
Footballguy
Do you play dynasty at all? I'm assuming you do, but if you don't that's a great place to start. If you're doing all of this with an eye towards redraft then I sort of feel awful for you because of your last two sentences (the sentences that I quote below).
This is one of the reasons exactly why I tired of redraft. If you're doing redraft, I think honing your math skills and making projections when you get all the information you'll have for the year would be more crucial than finding diamonds in the rough in March. Your time is probably better spent making initial projections and refining those than it is finding the next Brenton Strange. Like you alluded to (explicitly almost said), ain't no stone unturned by late August. You've really lost all of your advantage to the latecomers that take a few weeks with the freely available information on certain web sites. These guys you're putting in so much work to identify are sure to wind up on "sleeper" lists everywhere by then.
I'd take Strange over Otton easily and while I'm fairly pro-Strange vs consensus I can't really use what Otton did under Cohen as a reason to be that optimistic.
Otton was the beneficiary of injuries. Last man standing. Check it out. Evans exited week 7 extremely early and missed weeks 8-10 in full. Godwin went down at the end of game 7 for of course the season. Those weeks, 7-10, was the only weeks he really was very good. Basically averaged about 3 catches for 30 yards with ONE TD TOTAL in his other 11 games. Bottom of the barrel kind of stuff.
I'd take Jonnu over Strange next year, not in dynasty but in redraft, but I'm not at all targetting Jonnu. Sorry but the 9th year breakout worries me. Good news is McDaniel put him in a great spot for success but I feel like he just benefitted from the defense refusing to get beat deep and allowing Jonnu, and Achane, to be heavily utilized for their YAC ability. Will McDaniels find a way to adjust? Seems like he'd have some pressure on him to get the WR's more involved instead of using them as expensive decoys to set up Jonnu and Achance underneath. Just think a guy who's had one good really good fantasy year out of 9 carries some risk. But again I’d take him over Strange this upcoming season, just not remotely as high on him as consensus.
Otton was the beneficiary of injuries. Last man standing. Check it out. Evans exited week 7 extremely early and missed weeks 8-10 in full. Godwin went down at the end of game 7 for of course the season. Those weeks, 7-10, was the only weeks he really was very good. Basically averaged about 3 catches for 30 yards with ONE TD TOTAL in his other 11 games. Bottom of the barrel kind of stuff.
I'd take Jonnu over Strange next year, not in dynasty but in redraft, but I'm not at all targetting Jonnu. Sorry but the 9th year breakout worries me. Good news is McDaniel put him in a great spot for success but I feel like he just benefitted from the defense refusing to get beat deep and allowing Jonnu, and Achane, to be heavily utilized for their YAC ability. Will McDaniels find a way to adjust? Seems like he'd have some pressure on him to get the WR's more involved instead of using them as expensive decoys to set up Jonnu and Achance underneath. Just think a guy who's had one good really good fantasy year out of 9 carries some risk. But again I’d take him over Strange this upcoming season, just not remotely as high on him as consensus.
I would add that guys like Otton and Jonnu are poster children for how difficult the TE position is to project for fantasy and Strange will probably be included in that group eventually.
It's just such a scheme/matchup position for most of them. Did Jonnu just get way better in year 9 or get deployed way better? When Otton was needed, he balled out, if he was needed more no reason I see no reason to not think he's produce. If Otton was in that Dallas offense I see no reason he'd not be able to do Jake Ferguson things. Engram was a bust most of his Giants career, then a fantasy stud in Jacksonville with a coach who loves throwing to TE's. Not even trying to make a hot take but Jason Witten is going to be in the HOF and I think there are places he could have played where he'd not have put up half the receiving stats he did. Reality is most TE's are not the best pass catchers on their teams, that's usually several more WR's. They just have different matchups that can be easier to exploit or take advantage of and IMO it's the most coaching/scheme dependent position in fantasy. I still put an emphasis on trying to identify talent at the position on the premise most coaching staffs know what they are doing and will try and put that talent in the best place for succes, feel like we see less of talented TE's wasted and more of meh TE's elevated because they are used in the right way conducive for fantasy success.
It's just such a scheme/matchup position for most of them. Did Jonnu just get way better in year 9 or get deployed way better? When Otton was needed, he balled out, if he was needed more no reason I see no reason to not think he's produce. If Otton was in that Dallas offense I see no reason he'd not be able to do Jake Ferguson things. Engram was a bust most of his Giants career, then a fantasy stud in Jacksonville with a coach who loves throwing to TE's. Not even trying to make a hot take but Jason Witten is going to be in the HOF and I think there are places he could have played where he'd not have put up half the receiving stats he did. Reality is most TE's are not the best pass catchers on their teams, that's usually several more WR's. They just have different matchups that can be easier to exploit or take advantage of and IMO it's the most coaching/scheme dependent position in fantasy. I still put an emphasis on trying to identify talent at the position on the premise most coaching staffs know what they are doing and will try and put that talent in the best place for succes, feel like we see less of talented TE's wasted and more of meh TE's elevated because they are used in the right way conducive for fantasy success.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Just about dynasty exclusive at this point. It's just been the battle of trying to move up the draft every year hah. Two league I managed to convince them to draft within a week or two following the NFL draft now. The other leagues pretty much want it as late as possible. One in particular seems to move back a few weeks every year for the past 5-6 years now till we are now legit 1 week prior to NFL kickoff. It's not that I think their concerns of "what about injuries!" aren't valid; I just think they hide behind that argument because they've seen the results of when we were drafting in April/May vs August and realized a few of us were crushing the mid/late rounds that much better than the rest. Suppose it's better that way for the parity though.
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh, okay. Not redraft. That's a relief. I seriously wouldn't want somebody to put in all that time without math for redraft. Just . . . seems futile.
I can totally see what you're saying about the May-August thing. I'm in one league that drafts right after the NFL draft and one that drafts in August after the first two weeks of the preseason, and the difference in how those drafts play out is significant and noticeable. (I personally do better in the May draft league than the August one, but there are other significant reasons for the difference in finishes in the standings—it's not just the drafting timeframe.)
So I guess your charge is to find a different league or non-overweeningly convince your league mates that drafting before the NFL Draft lends itself to results that are a function of good player evaluation rather than a function of luck. I wish you the best in either endeavor.
joey
Footballguy
Same for me. One old school Keep 13 dynasty league I co-commish (that’s been in some form or another for 15+ years) is the same in that the majority want to wait til mid/late-August to draft so we “know more” and to avoid injuries as well. The problem for me is that I “know more” than they do earlier in the offseason since most of them shut it down after the Super Bowl while I’m posting here year round in random threads a few times a day
That’s one of the reasons why I’m now in 3 FFPC leagues, one of which is the rookie draft starting right after the NFL Draft. Love it.
ETA: sorry to continue the tangent. FWIW I rostered Strange at some point or another in 2 of my 3 FFPC TEP leagues last year but when the music stopped at the end of the season, I didn’t roster him on a single team :(
steelcityman
Footballguy
i put out an offer Njoku for Strange and Mims. I've had Njoku for forever. And their QB could be a mess this year if its Pickett. Strange was really good at PSU, and put up nice numbers for a TE2 last year. Maybe JAX brings in another TE via the draft, but unless its Warren, I dont see him being pushed backwards.
And Mims, would be a nice WR5 on my roster.
Its an inexpensive league, so I dont really worry about trading too much, as long as its not awful.
I'd hate that for you if you did it.
BespokeJort
Footballguy
I don’t necessarily think Strange is the favorite to finish the season first of the 3 in counting stats, but I do think he has the clearest pathway to being worth at least a 2nd this time next offseason, which is the biggest factor in how I make my end-of-the-roster decisions in dynasty.
Was also the logic that put him in my last bench spot over Erick All at season end
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Too funny; had the same exact decision and made the same exact choice end of last season. Then within a week or two of eachother Engram gets moved from Jax clearing the way for Strange, and Bengals resigned Gesicki. I won't say luck didn't play a huge factor, but still makes ya feel like you might actually know what you're doing sometimes when things just work out like that.
And agree. The majority of my end of bench decisions come down to value based plays much more than roster/will it win me a 'ship plays. TBH, after about the half way point of the season, it's what most of my waiver acquisitions are as well. One league I have Strange I also have LaPorta, so he could very well be a flip for me end of 2025 depending how much his value jumps (if it does at all, no jinx, no jinx).
steelcityman
Footballguy
why?
Short version is that Njoku is one of the 3 TE's in the league I think have a realistic shot at getting 150 targets in a 17 game season and all that goes with that.
Sorry for to much stat pistol whipping, tried to keep it short, and clogging up Strange thread.
I'd start by saying I don't really need to make any excuses for Njoku and you've said you've owned him awhile so you know this but his fantasy performance the last two years and been strong. In my leagues scoring, FFPC, he's been TE4 and TE6 in PPG scoring the last two years. But the excuse I'll make is Watson has never been very big on throwing to his TE's.
I charted out 18 games in the last two years where Njoku did not have Watson as his QB. The 4 main Qb's throwing to him were Flacco, Winston, DTR and PJ Walker. I took the stats from those 18 games, prorated it down to 17 games and it worked out to 156 targets for 99/988/9.
I don't think any part of that is a fluke. It's a lot of designed stuff because Stefanski loves him and has made him a focal point of the offense. It's a ton of low depth of target get the ball in his hands stuff, easy for any QB to do.
So if you are worried about Pickett I'd point out two things. Friermuth did fine with him, went backwards without him. The second thing is the fact that Njoku had big success, due to volume, with 4 different Qb's over the last two years. I even broke this down further to remove the Flacco and Winston games and go with the two worst Qb's, Walker and DTR, who are both sub-NFL backup standards.
3 games with Walker, 21/12/155 and 4 games with DTR it's 41/27/226. 7 games, you'd always like a bigger sample size but this is not bad, and this prorates with these two sub-standard NFL QB's as 150/95/925.
So to me you are giving up a massive top 3 volume TE for a WR5 and TE I view right now as more of a high end fantasy backup, super low end starter at most based on what I know right now. Only advantage I see in the trade is you get younger.
steelcityman
Footballguy
I pulled my offer, and he sent one of Strange and Wittington for Njoku, which I declined.
But Pickett didnt use Friermuth in 2023. There will be a lot of 3 and outs in CLEV with him at QB. If CLEV takes Sanders, can see him starting by week 6 and giving their receivers/TE a lifeline.
But Pickett didnt use Friermuth in 2023. There will be a lot of 3 and outs in CLEV with him at QB. If CLEV takes Sanders, can see him starting by week 6 and giving their receivers/TE a lifeline.
I think you did the right thing, his fault for not accepting sooner.
FWIW Pat and PIckett only played 7 games together in 2023 and Pat was probably not all the way healthy in those games. He averaged 4.5 targets in those games, dropped to 3.4 with Rudolph.
Pickett's going to be the backup most likely so I think you are making to big of a deal about him but either way I don't see why there would be more 3 and outs with him vs the other trash the Browns have been putting out at QB when Njoku's been a target monster.
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steelcityman
Footballguy
He came back with a late 3rd for Strange. Might accept that. Keep him as my TE2.
I would give a late 3rd for Strange.
I like it.
I’m in a keep 14 league. That scores TEs: 1.5 ppr 1 pt for every 5 yards and distance scoring 0-9 yards 10 pts, 10-19 yards 20 points, 20-39 yards 30 points and 40+ yards 40 points. I’m stubbornly keeping Michael Mayer over Strange as my Te3. I flipped Strange and 1.10, 2.10 for 1.07 and 2.07.
BespokeJort
Footballguy
I’m sure there’s a decent sized value boost for that format but that feels like great value for strange. Doesn’t seem like a major long touchdown burner
