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TE data - Targets, Snaps, Routes, Blocking %, Alignment (1 Viewer)

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
I've skimmed. Why does PLAYS < > SNAPS? Is this blocking and route-running on the same snap?

Asked/answered but bears repeating as it highlights one of the struggles I am having finding complete data.

The difference (for the vast majority) is penalties. But the "Plays" column should tie out to (= to) the sum of the three alignment columns. "Snaps" is plays that actually counted, but I'm still interested in alignment data even if the play was wiped out by a flag.

Most players Plays > Snaps, for some Plays = Snaps.

For a smaller subset - Taysom Hill and a couple of blocking TEs who function as H-backs or FBs - Plays will still be equal to the sum of the 3 alignment columns, but Snaps are greater. That's because the data set I'm pulling from doesn't account for FB/Hback/RB/QB snaps.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
I'm updating the Sheet in post #2 to reflect the TEs who played on MNF, and adding a few other TEs folks ask about in the thread.

Also adding columns for RZ Targets (In20, In10, and In5 along with success rates for each.)

Will be back later today to update. In the meantime, feel free to provide criticism/feedback/suggestions WRT data you would like included, presentation, or request TEs you would like me to add.
 

Weebs210

Footballguy
This is where I'm at as well. If his snaps increase to normal(which is the plan) he should be in a good position to put up numbers.
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
Ironically, I will now offer a post almost purely opinion based.

Cole Kmet played in exceptionally bad weather last week. I would like to think there is still hope he could be a Top 5 TE or see production close to that.

But it's really a bet on how much you believe in Justin Fields. Both Mooney and Kmet played far better with Andy Dalton than they did the rookie version of Fields.

I cut Kmet this week to pick up a bye week WR. I did this knowing my TE1 (Schultz) might be in for a temporary dip.

Kmet saw 93 targets a year ago. His market share was 17.4% and I expect that to increase. But from a roster construction view, I kind of hate backup QBs and TEs - they're just t i t s on a bull if you have good starters. I usually carry 6-8 RBs (7 rn), and 3-4 are just lottery tickets. One of them was a pre-emptive Jeff Wilson pickup, so yippee, 2-4 weeks of production before he tears his meniscus sitting down or some flukey thing (I didn't make that up, actually happened to him once.)

Point is, everyone was recommending Kmet should be dumped. This year's tiny sample size would tell you 47 snaps and 14 routes is not a path to success. My gut - and a TON of data from last year, when he was very unlucky and had zero TDs - tells me he is going to be a good TE1. Eventually.
As a Bears observer, I see Kmet as someone who may get a lot of catches but for low yards. His career is very frustrating as he had a lot of deeper routes at ND, it hasn't translated well to the pros. IDK if he can't get off the LOS or what, but his catches seem to be with his back facing the defense.
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
Good point about Kmet having success with Dalton as the QB. Fields does hold on to the ball for a long time, looking for a guy downfield or a schoolyard scramble. Neither scenario helps Kmet.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Will circle back with updated data tonight, but just curious…

WHICH TIGHT ENDS WERE DROPPED / PICKED UP IN YOUR LEAGUE THIS WEEK?

My long time redraft league:

Drops

Kmet
Albert O

Adds

Robert Tony an
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Table in 2nd post edited to include MNF Tight Ends, add a couple more TEs, and added columns for RZ. Maybe in future weeks I'll add % converted to the RZ target columns as we accumulate more data.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
No chest thumping but I was pleased with a lot of what I saw from Everett last night.

He could easily do something like 3/25 the next couple weeks but with Allen injured and the WRs seem to be all over the place outside of Mike Williams and they can only throw so many balls to them.

3/54/TD 4 Targets
6/71 on 10 targets but Chargers were behind in the 4th and he was quiet in the 1st half, might have had 1 or 2 catches before halftime and people were moaning and groaning.

We get 1.5 PPR and Everett was 4th last week, same score basically this week, should remain a Top5 TE overall in scoring going in to Week 3. He's not a Top 5 pre-game but he is hitting those numbers in the box score right now. "Luck" admittedly has a major role here

-Let's flashback to our Redrafts which will pop up again next year. I like to either push TE or QB off as my last starting spot to fill, lately it's been TE vs spending a 1st or 2nd on Kelce and Andrews. Kelce is going to get his over the season but last night I had to roll either Ertz or Everett and the team I face this weekend has Kelce (5/51). To be even or slightly ahead at TE going into Sunday when you gotta face off against Kelce is a good feeling.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy

NYRAGE

Footballguy
Uzomah's number seem like an absolute floor for him and I think he'll see much more.

Missed this earlier. C.J. ran 11 routes in 22 snaps for the Jets Week 1, zero targets. Conklin seems like the lead dog there.

Tyler was buried on the depth chart and mostly a STer his first 3 years with the Vikes; last year with Irv Smith lost for the year, he saw 924 and ran 444 routes, 87 targets, 16 RZ looks (2 of his 3 TDs were inside the 5.) Obviously that offense always went through Cook and the WRs, and maybe the Jets will spread it around in a similar manner. Point being, he profiles as a good candidate if he starts earning more targets. Which might be hard with Moore, Wilson, the pass catching RBs.....but worth monitoring for sure.

The Jets can be a hard team to follow (for various reasons). When they signed Conklin and CJ, the thought was well they can finally run the true SF offense and use 2 TEs. The Jets seemed excited that they could have the ability to finally untilze 2-TE sets. It became clear over the summer that Conklin was going to be used more in the passing role with CJ more of a blocker.

Now after only 1 week, the coordinator when asked about not using G WIlson enough said something to the effect that we used 2 TE sets a lot last week, so we'll need to cut that down to get Wilson out there more. I would guess that Conklin would still be the guy over CJ for sure, but his total number of snaps goes down if Wilson keeps impressing since they will still want to use CJ. Who really knows with this team though.
 

QuizGuy66

Footballguy
Uzomah's number seem like an absolute floor for him and I think he'll see much more.

Missed this earlier. C.J. ran 11 routes in 22 snaps for the Jets Week 1, zero targets. Conklin seems like the lead dog there.

Tyler was buried on the depth chart and mostly a STer his first 3 years with the Vikes; last year with Irv Smith lost for the year, he saw 924 and ran 444 routes, 87 targets, 16 RZ looks (2 of his 3 TDs were inside the 5.) Obviously that offense always went through Cook and the WRs, and maybe the Jets will spread it around in a similar manner. Point being, he profiles as a good candidate if he starts earning more targets. Which might be hard with Moore, Wilson, the pass catching RBs.....but worth monitoring for sure.

The Jets can be a hard team to follow (for various reasons). When they signed Conklin and CJ, the thought was well they can finally run the true SF offense and use 2 TEs. The Jets seemed excited that they could have the ability to finally untilze 2-TE sets. It became clear over the summer that Conklin was going to be used more in the passing role with CJ more of a blocker.

Now after only 1 week, the coordinator when asked about not using G WIlson enough said something to the effect that we used 2 TE sets a lot last week, so we'll need to cut that down to get Wilson out there more. I would guess that Conklin would still be the guy over CJ for sure, but his total number of snaps goes down if Wilson keeps impressing since they will still want to use CJ. Who really knows with this team though.

Thanks for the insight - I need to edit my original post as I inartfully was trying to say that Hurst's 2022 floor for Cincinnati is what Uzomah did last year for us
-QG
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
I feel better about my Everett addition now. That was a real nice ppr game and his usage looks solid.

Looking forward to seeing the alignment stats next week (they might be released Sunday or Monday, usually 3 days.) Especially in the first half it seemed like he was in the slot or on the boundary often. That always bodes well for TE production.

Both Everett & Palmer owners need to be weary about the utilization once Keenan is back.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Both Everett & Palmer owners need to be weary about the utilization once Keenan is back.
Donald Parham should be back soon as well.

McKitty is more of an inline blocking TE, so he might lose snaps. Parnham has Herbert's trust in the RZ bu he hasn't seen many snaps or run very many routes his first two year. Last year he had high games of 17 and 15 routes, rest of the games he ran 12 or less - 6 times in the single digits

What’s the deal with Parham? Was he active week 1? What’s his injury?

hammy, didn't practice this week, HC announced he was out on Tue. DNP WK 1.
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Hey @BobbyLayne, first of all, great thread! I was actually thinking of starting a TE thread, but it was going to be called "Crappy TE support group" and be way less analytical. Yours is better.

Like you, I discovered the Fantasy Analyst Who Shall Not Be Named and I think his stat-based approach is really interesting. But I've been wondering something: While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.

I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Will circle back with updated data tonight, but just curious…

WHICH TIGHT ENDS WERE DROPPED / PICKED UP IN YOUR LEAGUE THIS WEEK?

My long time redraft league:

Drops

Kmet
Albert O

Adds

Robert Tony an
I'm debating dropping Kmet for Tonyan, but this makes me nervous:
Packers tight end snaps (out of 61 total plays):
- Marcedes Lewis - 23
- Robert Tonyan - 22
- Tyler Davis - 15
- Josiah Deguara - 15

That's not a "committee", it's a "nightmare". Let's hope Tonyan is still just getting ramped up.
Think I'll Trust the Process for a little bit longer with Cole and hope the monsoon made Week 1 an outlier
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Will circle back with updated data tonight, but just curious…

WHICH TIGHT ENDS WERE DROPPED / PICKED UP IN YOUR LEAGUE THIS WEEK?

My long time redraft league:

Drops

Kmet
Albert O

Adds

Robert Tony an
I'm debating dropping Kmet for Tonyan, but this makes me nervous:
Packers tight end snaps (out of 61 total plays):
- Marcedes Lewis - 23
- Robert Tonyan - 22
- Tyler Davis - 15
- Josiah Deguara - 15

That's not a "committee", it's a "nightmare". Let's hope Tonyan is still just getting ramped up.
Think I'll Trust the Process for a little bit longer with Cole and hope the monsoon made Week 1 an outlier

Saw that. I’ve been fading Tonyan for two years, nothing has really changed. He had an incredibly efficient and unsustainable 2020, highlighted by the ultimate fluky game (Adams-Lazard & both opp Safeties out.)

Kmet was a breakout candidate a year ago and nearly got there, 0 TDs is some kind of bad luck. But he was way more consistent productive with Dalton.

I dropped Kmet and the Kittle/Irv owner claimed him on the 2nd run. Albert O got dropped, Taysom & Tonyan picked up. Logan Thomas, Kyle Granson and Juwan Johnson still out there along with Conklin.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.

I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox

Appreciate the feedback brother man.

Knox was a breakout? He finished TE11, which is nice, but wasn’t that primarily off leading all TEs in TDs? Basically had one good non-TD game all year. Points is points, kudos if you got him early when he was binging RZ looks in the first month. But we know that TDs are both the least sticky and hardest to predict. 71 targets last year and disappeared week 1 - the volume tilts too much toward the WRs on the Bills to expect consistency.

Schultz had a decent market share and stayed healthy; he also scored twice as many TDs in 2021 as he had 2018-20. He should have been on the radar - he had 89 targets in 2020 - but I’m not sure he’s going to be a consistent Top 5 finisher.

Reviewing three years of the alluded to 4-part articles, the results prove the methodology is solid. Not perfect, every analyst makes a bad call, every FF manager whiffs on players. But it is fairly predictive, def more so than anything else I’ve come across.

All that said, you’re pretty spot on the hardest thing (& most valuable to FF managers) isn’t identifying the Top 3-5 we all see, or eliminating the blockers/low utilization TEs who will never get there. It’s figuring out who is the next one to take a leap into elite territory.

Regardless, to me it’s a lot of fun to compile the data and make the effort. I enjoy it and it only helps me be a better overall FFer.
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.

I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox

Appreciate the feedback brother man.

Knox was a breakout? He finished TE11, which is nice, but wasn’t that primarily off leading all TEs in TDs? Basically had one good non-TD game all year. Points is points, kudos if you got him early when he was binging RZ looks in the first month. But we know that TDs are both the least sticky and hardest to predict. 71 targets last year and disappeared week 1 - the volume tilts too much toward the WRs on the Bills to expect consistency.

Schultz had a decent market share and stayed healthy; he also scored twice as many TDs in 2021 as he had 2018-20. He should have been on the radar - he had 89 targets in 2020 - but I’m not sure he’s going to be a consistent Top 5 finisher.

Reviewing three years of the alluded to 4-part articles, the results prove the methodology is solid. Not perfect, every analyst makes a bad call, every FF manager whiffs on players. But it is fairly predictive, def more so than anything else I’ve come across.

All that said, you’re pretty spot on the hardest thing (& most valuable to FF managers) isn’t identifying the Top 3-5 we all see, or eliminating the blockers/low utilization TEs who will never get there. It’s figuring out who is the next one to take a leap into elite territory.

Regardless, to me it’s a lot of fun to compile the data and make the effort. I enjoy it and it only helps me be a better overall FFer.
Yeah, I was going from memory in naming last year's breakouts, so I stand corrected. Looking at the list, I suppose the breakouts were Schultz and Gronk (when healthy).

But overall, it seems like there are fewer and fewer true breakouts. I still remember getting Ertz (2017), Kittle (2018), Andrews (2019) Waller (2019). The last couple years, the "breakouts" have been guys like Schultz or Logan Thomas (2020). Definitely returned value, but it didn't necessarily feel like you had hit the jackpot.
 
Last edited:

NYRAGE

Footballguy
Uzomah's number seem like an absolute floor for him and I think he'll see much more.

Missed this earlier. C.J. ran 11 routes in 22 snaps for the Jets Week 1, zero targets. Conklin seems like the lead dog there.

Tyler was buried on the depth chart and mostly a STer his first 3 years with the Vikes; last year with Irv Smith lost for the year, he saw 924 and ran 444 routes, 87 targets, 16 RZ looks (2 of his 3 TDs were inside the 5.) Obviously that offense always went through Cook and the WRs, and maybe the Jets will spread it around in a similar manner. Point being, he profiles as a good candidate if he starts earning more targets. Which might be hard with Moore, Wilson, the pass catching RBs.....but worth monitoring for sure.

The Jets can be a hard team to follow (for various reasons). When they signed Conklin and CJ, the thought was well they can finally run the true SF offense and use 2 TEs. The Jets seemed excited that they could have the ability to finally untilze 2-TE sets. It became clear over the summer that Conklin was going to be used more in the passing role with CJ more of a blocker.

Now after only 1 week, the coordinator when asked about not using G WIlson enough said something to the effect that we used 2 TE sets a lot last week, so we'll need to cut that down to get Wilson out there more. I would guess that Conklin would still be the guy over CJ for sure, but his total number of snaps goes down if Wilson keeps impressing since they will still want to use CJ. Who really knows with this team though.

Thanks for the insight - I need to edit my original post as I inartfully was trying to say that Hurst's 2022 floor for Cincinnati is what Uzomah did last year for us
-QG

It looks like CJ will be out this week, so full speed ahead for Conklin this week anyway.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.

I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox

Appreciate the feedback brother man.

Knox was a breakout? He finished TE11, which is nice, but wasn’t that primarily off leading all TEs in TDs? Basically had one good non-TD game all year. Points is points, kudos if you got him early when he was binging RZ looks in the first month. But we know that TDs are both the least sticky and hardest to predict. 71 targets last year and disappeared week 1 - the volume tilts too much toward the WRs on the Bills to expect consistency.

Schultz had a decent market share and stayed healthy; he also scored twice as many TDs in 2021 as he had 2018-20. He should have been on the radar - he had 89 targets in 2020 - but I’m not sure he’s going to be a consistent Top 5 finisher.

Reviewing three years of the alluded to 4-part articles, the results prove the methodology is solid. Not perfect, every analyst makes a bad call, every FF manager whiffs on players. But it is fairly predictive, def more so than anything else I’ve come across.

All that said, you’re pretty spot on the hardest thing (& most valuable to FF managers) isn’t identifying the Top 3-5 we all see, or eliminating the blockers/low utilization TEs who will never get there. It’s figuring out who is the next one to take a leap into elite territory.

Regardless, to me it’s a lot of fun to compile the data and make the effort. I enjoy it and it only helps me be a better overall FFer.
Yeah, I was going from memory in naming last year's breakouts, so I stand corrected. Looking at the list, I suppose the breakouts were Schultz and Gronk (when healthy).

But overall, it seems like there are fewer and fewer true breakouts. I still remember getting Ertz (2017), Kittle (2018), Andrew (2019) Waller (2019). The last couple years, the "breakouts" have been guys like Schultz or Logan Thomas (2020). Definitely returned value, but it didn't necessarily feel like you had hit the jackpot.

It does seem like that. I was just looking through my past drafts:
  • 2011 - drafted Jimmy Graham, his first breakout season
  • 2012 - it was the wrong year to get Gates
  • 2013 - drafted Julius Thomas, first of consecutive 12 TD seasons)
  • 2014 - drafted Julius again and took a late round flyer on Travis Kelce (TE6 first real season)
  • 2015 - drafted jordan Reed
Pretty good run.

Have had good but not great TEs since. The last true breakout TE I nailed was Reed.
 

NYRAGE

Footballguy
While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.

I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox

Appreciate the feedback brother man.

Knox was a breakout? He finished TE11, which is nice, but wasn’t that primarily off leading all TEs in TDs? Basically had one good non-TD game all year. Points is points, kudos if you got him early when he was binging RZ looks in the first month. But we know that TDs are both the least sticky and hardest to predict. 71 targets last year and disappeared week 1 - the volume tilts too much toward the WRs on the Bills to expect consistency.

Schultz had a decent market share and stayed healthy; he also scored twice as many TDs in 2021 as he had 2018-20. He should have been on the radar - he had 89 targets in 2020 - but I’m not sure he’s going to be a consistent Top 5 finisher.

Reviewing three years of the alluded to 4-part articles, the results prove the methodology is solid. Not perfect, every analyst makes a bad call, every FF manager whiffs on players. But it is fairly predictive, def more so than anything else I’ve come across.

All that said, you’re pretty spot on the hardest thing (& most valuable to FF managers) isn’t identifying the Top 3-5 we all see, or eliminating the blockers/low utilization TEs who will never get there. It’s figuring out who is the next one to take a leap into elite territory.

Regardless, to me it’s a lot of fun to compile the data and make the effort. I enjoy it and it only helps me be a better overall FFer.
Yeah, I was going from memory in naming last year's breakouts, so I stand corrected. Looking at the list, I suppose the breakouts were Schultz and Gronk (when healthy).

But overall, it seems like there are fewer and fewer true breakouts. I still remember getting Ertz (2017), Kittle (2018), Andrew (2019) Waller (2019). The last couple years, the "breakouts" have been guys like Schultz or Logan Thomas (2020). Definitely returned value, but it didn't necessarily feel like you had hit the jackpot.

It does seem like that. I was just looking through my past drafts:
  • 2011 - drafted Jimmy Graham, his first breakout season
  • 2012 - it was the wrong year to get Gates
  • 2013 - drafted Julius Thomas, first of consecutive 12 TD seasons)
  • 2014 - drafted Julius again and took a late round flyer on Travis Kelce (TE6 first real season)
  • 2015 - drafted jordan Reed
Pretty good run.

Have had good but not great TEs since. The last true breakout TE I nailed was Reed.

Have you read the article from Andrew Cooper? He considers himself to be a TE guru. It's a pretty good and a very in-depth research at predicting TEs.



He also does updates to his Yin/Yang chart with seasonal and weekly rankings. https://twitter.com/CoopAFiasco


This other guy updates weekly TE usage and other data.

 
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ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.

I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox

Appreciate the feedback brother man.

Knox was a breakout? He finished TE11, which is nice, but wasn’t that primarily off leading all TEs in TDs? Basically had one good non-TD game all year. Points is points, kudos if you got him early when he was binging RZ looks in the first month. But we know that TDs are both the least sticky and hardest to predict. 71 targets last year and disappeared week 1 - the volume tilts too much toward the WRs on the Bills to expect consistency.

Schultz had a decent market share and stayed healthy; he also scored twice as many TDs in 2021 as he had 2018-20. He should have been on the radar - he had 89 targets in 2020 - but I’m not sure he’s going to be a consistent Top 5 finisher.

Reviewing three years of the alluded to 4-part articles, the results prove the methodology is solid. Not perfect, every analyst makes a bad call, every FF manager whiffs on players. But it is fairly predictive, def more so than anything else I’ve come across.

All that said, you’re pretty spot on the hardest thing (& most valuable to FF managers) isn’t identifying the Top 3-5 we all see, or eliminating the blockers/low utilization TEs who will never get there. It’s figuring out who is the next one to take a leap into elite territory.

Regardless, to me it’s a lot of fun to compile the data and make the effort. I enjoy it and it only helps me be a better overall FFer.
Yeah, I was going from memory in naming last year's breakouts, so I stand corrected. Looking at the list, I suppose the breakouts were Schultz and Gronk (when healthy).

But overall, it seems like there are fewer and fewer true breakouts. I still remember getting Ertz (2017), Kittle (2018), Andrew (2019) Waller (2019). The last couple years, the "breakouts" have been guys like Schultz or Logan Thomas (2020). Definitely returned value, but it didn't necessarily feel like you had hit the jackpot.

It does seem like that. I was just looking through my past drafts:
  • 2011 - drafted Jimmy Graham, his first breakout season
  • 2012 - it was the wrong year to get Gates
  • 2013 - drafted Julius Thomas, first of consecutive 12 TD seasons)
  • 2014 - drafted Julius again and took a late round flyer on Travis Kelce (TE6 first real season)
  • 2015 - drafted jordan Reed
Pretty good run.

Have had good but not great TEs since. The last true breakout TE I nailed was Reed.
The best was when I drafted Andrews, picked up Waller off the WW, then traded Andrews and JuJu for Michael Thomas in his breakout year, then got Hunter Henry off the wire when he came back from IR (league has a WR/TE flex).

I could play fantasy for another 100 years and never get that kind of TE luck. And now that I think of it, it’s been downhill ever since
 

TwinTurbo

Footballguy
I didn't like what I saw from the Pats usage of Hunter Henry in week 1. The matchup wasn't great but this team looks worse than last year.
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.

I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox

Appreciate the feedback brother man.

Knox was a breakout? He finished TE11, which is nice, but wasn’t that primarily off leading all TEs in TDs? Basically had one good non-TD game all year. Points is points, kudos if you got him early when he was binging RZ looks in the first month. But we know that TDs are both the least sticky and hardest to predict. 71 targets last year and disappeared week 1 - the volume tilts too much toward the WRs on the Bills to expect consistency.

Schultz had a decent market share and stayed healthy; he also scored twice as many TDs in 2021 as he had 2018-20. He should have been on the radar - he had 89 targets in 2020 - but I’m not sure he’s going to be a consistent Top 5 finisher.

Reviewing three years of the alluded to 4-part articles, the results prove the methodology is solid. Not perfect, every analyst makes a bad call, every FF manager whiffs on players. But it is fairly predictive, def more so than anything else I’ve come across.

All that said, you’re pretty spot on the hardest thing (& most valuable to FF managers) isn’t identifying the Top 3-5 we all see, or eliminating the blockers/low utilization TEs who will never get there. It’s figuring out who is the next one to take a leap into elite territory.

Regardless, to me it’s a lot of fun to compile the data and make the effort. I enjoy it and it only helps me be a better overall FFer.
Yeah, I was going from memory in naming last year's breakouts, so I stand corrected. Looking at the list, I suppose the breakouts were Schultz and Gronk (when healthy).

But overall, it seems like there are fewer and fewer true breakouts. I still remember getting Ertz (2017), Kittle (2018), Andrew (2019) Waller (2019). The last couple years, the "breakouts" have been guys like Schultz or Logan Thomas (2020). Definitely returned value, but it didn't necessarily feel like you had hit the jackpot.

It does seem like that. I was just looking through my past drafts:
  • 2011 - drafted Jimmy Graham, his first breakout season
  • 2012 - it was the wrong year to get Gates
  • 2013 - drafted Julius Thomas, first of consecutive 12 TD seasons)
  • 2014 - drafted Julius again and took a late round flyer on Travis Kelce (TE6 first real season)
  • 2015 - drafted jordan Reed
Pretty good run.

Have had good but not great TEs since. The last true breakout TE I nailed was Reed.

Have you read this article from Andrew Cooper? He considers himself to be a TE guru. It's a pretty good and a very in-depth research at predicting TEs.


He also does updates to his Yin/Yang chart with seasonal and weekly rankings. https://twitter.com/CoopAFiasco


This other guy updates weekly TE usage and other data.

Yeah this is the guy we’ve been referencing. The issue is that the Powers That Be don’t like us linking to a direct FBG competitor, which I can totally respect
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
I didn't like what I saw from the Pats usage of Hunter Henry in week 1. The matchup wasn't great but this team looks worse than last year.

Not a fan of this year's OC.

;)

Henry has always been held back by his volume. 90 targets is sort of our minimum threshold, last 3 years it's been 76-93-75.

But the encouraging thing to me about HH is the efficiency. We like to say TDs are variable and hard to predict, and that holds true 95% + of the time. Then you have guys like Henry who are always efficient in the RZ. He's never had a season below 25% RZ conversion rate. You can't even say that about the big 4 veterans (Andrews, Kelce, Kittle and Waller.)

While he probably will never be elite, if you're patient he won't do any more harm than the other 7 TE1s who got drafted after those 4 + Pitts.
 

TwinTurbo

Footballguy
I didn't like what I saw from the Pats usage of Hunter Henry in week 1. The matchup wasn't great but this team looks worse than last year.

Not a fan of this year's OC.

;)

Henry has always been held back by his volume. 90 targets is sort of our minimum threshold, last 3 years it's been 76-93-75.

But the encouraging thing to me about HH is the efficiency. We like to say TDs are variable and hard to predict, and that holds true 95% + of the time. Then you have guys like Henry who are always efficient in the RZ. He's never had a season below 25% RZ conversion rate. You can't even say that about the big 4 veterans (Andrews, Kelce, Kittle and Waller.)

While he probably will never be elite, if you're patient he won't do any more harm than the other 7 TE1s who got drafted after those 4 + Pitts.
I'm not a fan of any current or former Pats OC without Brady. Its predictable how that works out. For Henry, he is amazing in the RZ. But can this Pats team score more TDs than last year? He is very TD dependent, just like Knox, but doesn't have Josh Allen at QB
 

rockaction

Footballguy
Glad that @NYRAGE actually discussed who the "guru" you guys were talking about was. It should certainly not be forbidden to discuss analysts on these boards. I subscribe here for the elite subscription (the IDP one) and feel like I help pay for the boards with that subscription. Now, links and recommendations are another matter, but it would seem to me twofold why this guy's name should have been mentioned right away:

1) Credit to the guy. For his sake. People read these forums, and it's a great plug for his career.
2) Just for the sake of information. It's way too coy, not mentioning the man's name whose work you're basing this entire thread off of, and the reader is left in the dark. Can he not read the person and judge for himself whether or not the person being discussed is meritorious?

Again, I get not linking and promotion, but in the future, we really should cite the person. It does the reader and the person who ought to be cited a disservice, even in the context of these boards.
 

Houston turmOiler

Footballguy
I'm starting Logan Thomas over Dawson Knox and Taysom Hill.

Roster size isn't really a problem as it allows roster-stash flexibility.

Don't know anymore at the TE position. Used to be real good at drafting sleepers, but not so much the last few years. I hate playing TE roulette, the only guy on my roster last week week was Knox and he got a measly 2 targets. Looked like any guy I might pluck off the waiver wire. Still a decent option on a great offense, but very up and down.

Thomas at least showed a pulse and got 6 targets, so I traded Warren to the Najee owner for him. Wentz has targeted the TE position in the past I guess, so he seemed like a decent enough option to bounce back from the injury and be a solid weekly option.

Hill is kind of interesting, but tough to see a consistent role. Maybe if Kamara and Ingram and Winston continually are dinged up... just kinda holding for now.

I'm sure I'm wrong. It's the TE position.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
With WRs Alec Pierce out and Michael Pittman Q (DNP Thu or Fri), I like Kyle Branson as a sleeper TE this week. He was 9th in routes run WK 1, finishing 3-22-0 off 7 targets while out snapping Mo-Allie Cox 50 to 25. Jax gave up 10.8 ppr FF pts to WAS last week.
 

MCFootball123

Footballguy
Almost no talk about Freiermuth in this thread. Picked him up after seeing the usage and targets. Thoughts moving forward?

I own him/Ertz. Ertz has a juicy matchup and has been full all week - if I knew he would be back to his usual snap % it is a no brainer. Muth faces NE who has been lights out vs TE for years.

Have Ertz in over Muth right now.
 

ConnSKINS26

Footballguy
This probably depends on Logan Thomas’ continued recovery from his ACL (I’d put him at about 80% right now, he was pretty stiff last week but functional), and is definitely more of a deep dynasty/TE Prem call.

But keep an eye on Cole Turner as the receiving TE successor in Washington. He had an extremely good training camp and was flashing with Wentz almost every day, shocking everyone given he’s an unheralded 5th round rookie—but then he got hurt and missed the entire preseason, losing his snaps to Armani Rogers (who was schemed the first touch of the game last week against the Jaguars despite Logan Thomas and John Bates—an elite young blocking TE with questionable hands—both being available).

They want to use multiple TE’s and Wentz has a history of favoring guys like Turner down the seam, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him earn snaps and flash once he’s fully healthy and integrated into the offense. He was operating a lot in camp as a big slot rather than as an in-line TE, so a future Curtis Samuel injury could open the door for him earning snaps as well.

Like I said, deep stash (maybe deep taxi TE Prem only for a complete rebuild bereft of rosterable lottery tickets—one of you folks in a race to the bottom for Bijan!), and there are so many weapons to distribute touches to in Washington’s offense currently that idk what his future holds unless he’s an absolute gem and a future star (which is obviously unlikely). But keep him on the deep sea radar, and hopefully once he’s playing we get some stats to contribute to this great thread to break down just how he’s being used. Because the daily refrain out of Washington *shudder* Commanders camp wasn’t just about the consistent flashes of Jahan Dotson—it also was about this guy.
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Even in a 14-teamer, I think I have to bail on Kmet. Two targets in two games? Not much available (Likely, Conklin, JJohnson) but it’s not like they could do worse
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Logan Thomas looked good today.

Conklin with another good week.

Both are susceptible to down weeks given the other options on their teams but so far so good.

Who disappeared this week? Albert O. Hockenson seems like an afterthought in Detroit rn. Schultz had a terrible game and hurt his knee late. Who else?

I have not reviewed much yet, just been enjoying the afterglow of a Lions win.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Evan Engram ran 36 routes WK 2, led the Jags in targets (8) and receptions (7.) He ran 26 routes WK 1. Outsnapped Manhertz 50-25

Pat Freiermuth 33 routes (8 slot snaps, 10 targets)

Hunter Henry and Cole Kmet are droppable, and I apologize for advocating for either #deepshame

Tyler Conklin 66 snaps (100%), Jeremy Ruckert 16

Pats TE snap counts: Jonnu Smith 39, Hunter Henry 34

when Gesicki caught his TD, the Miami TE snaps were Durham Smythe - 31 Mike Gesicki - 16 (incomplete data)

first half, Njoku outsnapped Bryant 25-15. 13-4 when they ran 11 personnel. ran 12 formations 8 times, jumbo triple TE 3 times

***************

probably won't have the full data set until Wednesday, Thursday for MNF players - not good for WW decisions, trying to figure out an alternative.
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
I think I'm going to drop Kmet for Conklin. Total floor play -- we know what Conklin is at this point -- but he has gotten 7 and 9 targets in the first two games, which means he's at 8x compared to Kmet.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
The 2022 TE Wasteland

Week 2 TEs with 100+ yards: Mark Andrews

Double digit target - Ertz, Andrews - 11, Everett -10

8 TEs scored a single TD - 3 scrubs with 0% ownership, 2 WW guys (27% & 14%} you def didn’t start, Andrews Waller Freiermuth

50 + TD - Andrews & Waller. /list

Andrews 11 targets 9-104-1
Ertz 11 targets 8-75-0
Everett 10 targets 6-71-0
Higbee 9 targets 7-71-1
Kelce 7 targets 5-51-0
Waller 8 targets 6-50-1
Freiermuth 7 targets 4-22-1
Everyone else was such a disappointment on so many levels.

Guys who sucked Week 2 edition

Kittle DNP, again
Schultz 2-18, lost fumble, then got hurt
Hockenson 7 targets 3-26, several drops
Pitts (just doing Arthur Smith things)

Dawson & Goedert play tonight

Not to be that guy but I told you nope
Njoku 3-32, 5 targets (H Bryant 3-45, 4 targets)
Kmet (actually I told you he patient but dropped him myself) 1 target zero zip zilch nada
Fant Can’t 2-11, 2 targets
Albert O 2 targets, whitewash
Tonyan 2-11, 2 targets

Guys I liked (mixed bag)
Conklin 6-40, 9 targets (2nd)
Engram 7-46, 8 targets
Granson 2-24, 2 targets
Hurst 5-24, 7 targets (much of it late?)
Juwan Johnson 4-40, 8 targets
Logan Thomas 3-37-1 (4th in targets w/ 5)
Henry 1 target blanked (ditto Jonnu on 3 targets)

Should we be encouraged Gesicki went 4-41-1 on 4 targets. Probably not, his 44 snaps (62%) were a function of game script. In neutral situations, they favor Smythe in 11 personnel bc he’s a better blocker. It’s early, let’s see if it changes.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Arthur Smith is not playing fantasy football, he’s trying to win. By not using his best player.

3 targets, 2-19
after going 7 targets, 2-19 last week

Week1 84% snaps 78% routes run
Week 2 93% snaps 91% routes run

1 TD in 19 NFL ganes
 

JIslander

Footballguy
Arthur Smith is not playing fantasy football, he’s trying to win. By not using his best player.

3 targets, 2-19
after going 7 targets, 2-19 last week

Week1 84% snaps 78% routes run
Week 2 93% snaps 91% routes run

1 TD in 19 NFL ganes
Will be watching the Pitts owner in my league who also has Everett -- Just can't see them not getting that kid the ball for long. Even though I have London, I'd grab Pitts if dropped --
 

zamboni

Footballguy
Need to take a closer look at Higbee for sure.

ETA: in that pass happy offense, the opportunities are there even after Kupp gets force fed
 

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