SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I've skimmed. Why does PLAYS < > SNAPS? Is this blocking and route-running on the same snap?
I've skimmed. Why does PLAYS < > SNAPS? Is this blocking and route-running on the same snap?
As a Bears observer, I see Kmet as someone who may get a lot of catches but for low yards. His career is very frustrating as he had a lot of deeper routes at ND, it hasn't translated well to the pros. IDK if he can't get off the LOS or what, but his catches seem to be with his back facing the defense.Ironically, I will now offer a post almost purely opinion based.
Cole Kmet played in exceptionally bad weather last week. I would like to think there is still hope he could be a Top 5 TE or see production close to that.
But it's really a bet on how much you believe in Justin Fields. Both Mooney and Kmet played far better with Andy Dalton than they did the rookie version of Fields.
I cut Kmet this week to pick up a bye week WR. I did this knowing my TE1 (Schultz) might be in for a temporary dip.
Kmet saw 93 targets a year ago. His market share was 17.4% and I expect that to increase. But from a roster construction view, I kind of hate backup QBs and TEs - they're just t i t s on a bull if you have good starters. I usually carry 6-8 RBs (7 rn), and 3-4 are just lottery tickets. One of them was a pre-emptive Jeff Wilson pickup, so yippee, 2-4 weeks of production before he tears his meniscus sitting down or some flukey thing (I didn't make that up, actually happened to him once.)
Point is, everyone was recommending Kmet should be dumped. This year's tiny sample size would tell you 47 snaps and 14 routes is not a path to success. My gut - and a TON of data from last year, when he was very unlucky and had zero TDs - tells me he is going to be a good TE1. Eventually.
Uzomah's number seem like an absolute floor for him and I think he'll see much more.
Missed this earlier. C.J. ran 11 routes in 22 snaps for the Jets Week 1, zero targets. Conklin seems like the lead dog there.
Tyler was buried on the depth chart and mostly a STer his first 3 years with the Vikes; last year with Irv Smith lost for the year, he saw 924 and ran 444 routes, 87 targets, 16 RZ looks (2 of his 3 TDs were inside the 5.) Obviously that offense always went through Cook and the WRs, and maybe the Jets will spread it around in a similar manner. Point being, he profiles as a good candidate if he starts earning more targets. Which might be hard with Moore, Wilson, the pass catching RBs.....but worth monitoring for sure.
Uzomah's number seem like an absolute floor for him and I think he'll see much more.
Missed this earlier. C.J. ran 11 routes in 22 snaps for the Jets Week 1, zero targets. Conklin seems like the lead dog there.
Tyler was buried on the depth chart and mostly a STer his first 3 years with the Vikes; last year with Irv Smith lost for the year, he saw 924 and ran 444 routes, 87 targets, 16 RZ looks (2 of his 3 TDs were inside the 5.) Obviously that offense always went through Cook and the WRs, and maybe the Jets will spread it around in a similar manner. Point being, he profiles as a good candidate if he starts earning more targets. Which might be hard with Moore, Wilson, the pass catching RBs.....but worth monitoring for sure.
The Jets can be a hard team to follow (for various reasons). When they signed Conklin and CJ, the thought was well they can finally run the true SF offense and use 2 TEs. The Jets seemed excited that they could have the ability to finally untilze 2-TE sets. It became clear over the summer that Conklin was going to be used more in the passing role with CJ more of a blocker.
Now after only 1 week, the coordinator when asked about not using G WIlson enough said something to the effect that we used 2 TE sets a lot last week, so we'll need to cut that down to get Wilson out there more. I would guess that Conklin would still be the guy over CJ for sure, but his total number of snaps goes down if Wilson keeps impressing since they will still want to use CJ. Who really knows with this team though.
I feel better about my Everett addition now. That was a real nice ppr game and his usage looks solid.
Donald Parham should be back soon as well.Both Everett & Palmer owners need to be weary about the utilization once Keenan is back.
Donald Parham should be back soon as well.Both Everett & Palmer owners need to be weary about the utilization once Keenan is back.
What’s the deal with Parham? Was he active week 1? What’s his injury?
I'm debating dropping Kmet for Tonyan, but this makes me nervous:Will circle back with updated data tonight, but just curious…
WHICH TIGHT ENDS WERE DROPPED / PICKED UP IN YOUR LEAGUE THIS WEEK?
My long time redraft league:
Drops
Kmet
Albert O
Adds
Robert Tony an
Think I'll Trust the Process for a little bit longer with Cole and hope the monsoon made Week 1 an outlierPackers tight end snaps (out of 61 total plays):
- Marcedes Lewis - 23
- Robert Tonyan - 22
- Tyler Davis - 15
- Josiah Deguara - 15
That's not a "committee", it's a "nightmare". Let's hope Tonyan is still just getting ramped up.
I'm debating dropping Kmet for Tonyan, but this makes me nervous:Will circle back with updated data tonight, but just curious…
WHICH TIGHT ENDS WERE DROPPED / PICKED UP IN YOUR LEAGUE THIS WEEK?
My long time redraft league:
Drops
Kmet
Albert O
Adds
Robert Tony an
Think I'll Trust the Process for a little bit longer with Cole and hope the monsoon made Week 1 an outlierPackers tight end snaps (out of 61 total plays):
- Marcedes Lewis - 23
- Robert Tonyan - 22
- Tyler Davis - 15
- Josiah Deguara - 15
That's not a "committee", it's a "nightmare". Let's hope Tonyan is still just getting ramped up.
While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.
I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox
Yeah, I was going from memory in naming last year's breakouts, so I stand corrected. Looking at the list, I suppose the breakouts were Schultz and Gronk (when healthy).While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.
I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox
Appreciate the feedback brother man.
Knox was a breakout? He finished TE11, which is nice, but wasn’t that primarily off leading all TEs in TDs? Basically had one good non-TD game all year. Points is points, kudos if you got him early when he was binging RZ looks in the first month. But we know that TDs are both the least sticky and hardest to predict. 71 targets last year and disappeared week 1 - the volume tilts too much toward the WRs on the Bills to expect consistency.
Schultz had a decent market share and stayed healthy; he also scored twice as many TDs in 2021 as he had 2018-20. He should have been on the radar - he had 89 targets in 2020 - but I’m not sure he’s going to be a consistent Top 5 finisher.
Reviewing three years of the alluded to 4-part articles, the results prove the methodology is solid. Not perfect, every analyst makes a bad call, every FF manager whiffs on players. But it is fairly predictive, def more so than anything else I’ve come across.
All that said, you’re pretty spot on the hardest thing (& most valuable to FF managers) isn’t identifying the Top 3-5 we all see, or eliminating the blockers/low utilization TEs who will never get there. It’s figuring out who is the next one to take a leap into elite territory.
Regardless, to me it’s a lot of fun to compile the data and make the effort. I enjoy it and it only helps me be a better overall FFer.
Uzomah's number seem like an absolute floor for him and I think he'll see much more.
Missed this earlier. C.J. ran 11 routes in 22 snaps for the Jets Week 1, zero targets. Conklin seems like the lead dog there.
Tyler was buried on the depth chart and mostly a STer his first 3 years with the Vikes; last year with Irv Smith lost for the year, he saw 924 and ran 444 routes, 87 targets, 16 RZ looks (2 of his 3 TDs were inside the 5.) Obviously that offense always went through Cook and the WRs, and maybe the Jets will spread it around in a similar manner. Point being, he profiles as a good candidate if he starts earning more targets. Which might be hard with Moore, Wilson, the pass catching RBs.....but worth monitoring for sure.
The Jets can be a hard team to follow (for various reasons). When they signed Conklin and CJ, the thought was well they can finally run the true SF offense and use 2 TEs. The Jets seemed excited that they could have the ability to finally untilze 2-TE sets. It became clear over the summer that Conklin was going to be used more in the passing role with CJ more of a blocker.
Now after only 1 week, the coordinator when asked about not using G WIlson enough said something to the effect that we used 2 TE sets a lot last week, so we'll need to cut that down to get Wilson out there more. I would guess that Conklin would still be the guy over CJ for sure, but his total number of snaps goes down if Wilson keeps impressing since they will still want to use CJ. Who really knows with this team though.
Thanks for the insight - I need to edit my original post as I inartfully was trying to say that Hurst's 2022 floor for Cincinnati is what Uzomah did last year for us
-QG
Yeah, I was going from memory in naming last year's breakouts, so I stand corrected. Looking at the list, I suppose the breakouts were Schultz and Gronk (when healthy).While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.
I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox
Appreciate the feedback brother man.
Knox was a breakout? He finished TE11, which is nice, but wasn’t that primarily off leading all TEs in TDs? Basically had one good non-TD game all year. Points is points, kudos if you got him early when he was binging RZ looks in the first month. But we know that TDs are both the least sticky and hardest to predict. 71 targets last year and disappeared week 1 - the volume tilts too much toward the WRs on the Bills to expect consistency.
Schultz had a decent market share and stayed healthy; he also scored twice as many TDs in 2021 as he had 2018-20. He should have been on the radar - he had 89 targets in 2020 - but I’m not sure he’s going to be a consistent Top 5 finisher.
Reviewing three years of the alluded to 4-part articles, the results prove the methodology is solid. Not perfect, every analyst makes a bad call, every FF manager whiffs on players. But it is fairly predictive, def more so than anything else I’ve come across.
All that said, you’re pretty spot on the hardest thing (& most valuable to FF managers) isn’t identifying the Top 3-5 we all see, or eliminating the blockers/low utilization TEs who will never get there. It’s figuring out who is the next one to take a leap into elite territory.
Regardless, to me it’s a lot of fun to compile the data and make the effort. I enjoy it and it only helps me be a better overall FFer.
But overall, it seems like there are fewer and fewer true breakouts. I still remember getting Ertz (2017), Kittle (2018), Andrew (2019) Waller (2019). The last couple years, the "breakouts" have been guys like Schultz or Logan Thomas (2020). Definitely returned value, but it didn't necessarily feel like you had hit the jackpot.
Yeah, I was going from memory in naming last year's breakouts, so I stand corrected. Looking at the list, I suppose the breakouts were Schultz and Gronk (when healthy).While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.
I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox
Appreciate the feedback brother man.
Knox was a breakout? He finished TE11, which is nice, but wasn’t that primarily off leading all TEs in TDs? Basically had one good non-TD game all year. Points is points, kudos if you got him early when he was binging RZ looks in the first month. But we know that TDs are both the least sticky and hardest to predict. 71 targets last year and disappeared week 1 - the volume tilts too much toward the WRs on the Bills to expect consistency.
Schultz had a decent market share and stayed healthy; he also scored twice as many TDs in 2021 as he had 2018-20. He should have been on the radar - he had 89 targets in 2020 - but I’m not sure he’s going to be a consistent Top 5 finisher.
Reviewing three years of the alluded to 4-part articles, the results prove the methodology is solid. Not perfect, every analyst makes a bad call, every FF manager whiffs on players. But it is fairly predictive, def more so than anything else I’ve come across.
All that said, you’re pretty spot on the hardest thing (& most valuable to FF managers) isn’t identifying the Top 3-5 we all see, or eliminating the blockers/low utilization TEs who will never get there. It’s figuring out who is the next one to take a leap into elite territory.
Regardless, to me it’s a lot of fun to compile the data and make the effort. I enjoy it and it only helps me be a better overall FFer.
But overall, it seems like there are fewer and fewer true breakouts. I still remember getting Ertz (2017), Kittle (2018), Andrew (2019) Waller (2019). The last couple years, the "breakouts" have been guys like Schultz or Logan Thomas (2020). Definitely returned value, but it didn't necessarily feel like you had hit the jackpot.
It does seem like that. I was just looking through my past drafts:
Pretty good run.
- 2011 - drafted Jimmy Graham, his first breakout season
- 2012 - it was the wrong year to get Gates
- 2013 - drafted Julius Thomas, first of consecutive 12 TD seasons)
- 2014 - drafted Julius again and took a late round flyer on Travis Kelce (TE6 first real season)
- 2015 - drafted jordan Reed
Have had good but not great TEs since. The last true breakout TE I nailed was Reed.
The best was when I drafted Andrews, picked up Waller off the WW, then traded Andrews and JuJu for Michael Thomas in his breakout year, then got Hunter Henry off the wire when he came back from IR (league has a WR/TE flex).Yeah, I was going from memory in naming last year's breakouts, so I stand corrected. Looking at the list, I suppose the breakouts were Schultz and Gronk (when healthy).While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.
I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox
Appreciate the feedback brother man.
Knox was a breakout? He finished TE11, which is nice, but wasn’t that primarily off leading all TEs in TDs? Basically had one good non-TD game all year. Points is points, kudos if you got him early when he was binging RZ looks in the first month. But we know that TDs are both the least sticky and hardest to predict. 71 targets last year and disappeared week 1 - the volume tilts too much toward the WRs on the Bills to expect consistency.
Schultz had a decent market share and stayed healthy; he also scored twice as many TDs in 2021 as he had 2018-20. He should have been on the radar - he had 89 targets in 2020 - but I’m not sure he’s going to be a consistent Top 5 finisher.
Reviewing three years of the alluded to 4-part articles, the results prove the methodology is solid. Not perfect, every analyst makes a bad call, every FF manager whiffs on players. But it is fairly predictive, def more so than anything else I’ve come across.
All that said, you’re pretty spot on the hardest thing (& most valuable to FF managers) isn’t identifying the Top 3-5 we all see, or eliminating the blockers/low utilization TEs who will never get there. It’s figuring out who is the next one to take a leap into elite territory.
Regardless, to me it’s a lot of fun to compile the data and make the effort. I enjoy it and it only helps me be a better overall FFer.
But overall, it seems like there are fewer and fewer true breakouts. I still remember getting Ertz (2017), Kittle (2018), Andrew (2019) Waller (2019). The last couple years, the "breakouts" have been guys like Schultz or Logan Thomas (2020). Definitely returned value, but it didn't necessarily feel like you had hit the jackpot.
It does seem like that. I was just looking through my past drafts:
Pretty good run.
- 2011 - drafted Jimmy Graham, his first breakout season
- 2012 - it was the wrong year to get Gates
- 2013 - drafted Julius Thomas, first of consecutive 12 TD seasons)
- 2014 - drafted Julius again and took a late round flyer on Travis Kelce (TE6 first real season)
- 2015 - drafted jordan Reed
Have had good but not great TEs since. The last true breakout TE I nailed was Reed.
Yeah this is the guy we’ve been referencing. The issue is that the Powers That Be don’t like us linking to a direct FBG competitor, which I can totally respectYeah, I was going from memory in naming last year's breakouts, so I stand corrected. Looking at the list, I suppose the breakouts were Schultz and Gronk (when healthy).While preparing for this year's drafts, I looked at my notes from last year and realized I had saved his color-coded summary of the TE market. And I gotta tell ya, his predictions did not hold up particularly well. Actually, let me clarify: He did a good job of identifying the busts, but the breakouts ... not so much.
I say this not to disparage him -- this **** is hard, and as you say, we're not going to discover plutonium here -- but simply to point out maybe we shouldn't rely too much on the model's predictive power. It may be that the attributes he identifies -- Top Two target share, low blocking rate, etc. -- are necessary but not sufficient. It can help you avoid wasting a draft pick/waiver claim, but it can't help you identify this year's Schultz or Knox
Appreciate the feedback brother man.
Knox was a breakout? He finished TE11, which is nice, but wasn’t that primarily off leading all TEs in TDs? Basically had one good non-TD game all year. Points is points, kudos if you got him early when he was binging RZ looks in the first month. But we know that TDs are both the least sticky and hardest to predict. 71 targets last year and disappeared week 1 - the volume tilts too much toward the WRs on the Bills to expect consistency.
Schultz had a decent market share and stayed healthy; he also scored twice as many TDs in 2021 as he had 2018-20. He should have been on the radar - he had 89 targets in 2020 - but I’m not sure he’s going to be a consistent Top 5 finisher.
Reviewing three years of the alluded to 4-part articles, the results prove the methodology is solid. Not perfect, every analyst makes a bad call, every FF manager whiffs on players. But it is fairly predictive, def more so than anything else I’ve come across.
All that said, you’re pretty spot on the hardest thing (& most valuable to FF managers) isn’t identifying the Top 3-5 we all see, or eliminating the blockers/low utilization TEs who will never get there. It’s figuring out who is the next one to take a leap into elite territory.
Regardless, to me it’s a lot of fun to compile the data and make the effort. I enjoy it and it only helps me be a better overall FFer.
But overall, it seems like there are fewer and fewer true breakouts. I still remember getting Ertz (2017), Kittle (2018), Andrew (2019) Waller (2019). The last couple years, the "breakouts" have been guys like Schultz or Logan Thomas (2020). Definitely returned value, but it didn't necessarily feel like you had hit the jackpot.
It does seem like that. I was just looking through my past drafts:
Pretty good run.
- 2011 - drafted Jimmy Graham, his first breakout season
- 2012 - it was the wrong year to get Gates
- 2013 - drafted Julius Thomas, first of consecutive 12 TD seasons)
- 2014 - drafted Julius again and took a late round flyer on Travis Kelce (TE6 first real season)
- 2015 - drafted jordan Reed
Have had good but not great TEs since. The last true breakout TE I nailed was Reed.
Have you read this article from Andrew Cooper? He considers himself to be a TE guru. It's a pretty good and a very in-depth research at predicting TEs.
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2022 Fantasy Football Player Profile: What Makes an Elite Tight End? | Fantasy Alarm
Andrew Cooper breaks down everything you need to know on what it takes to be an elite fantasy football tight end.www.fantasyalarm.com
He also does updates to his Yin/Yang chart with seasonal and weekly rankings. https://twitter.com/CoopAFiasco
This other guy updates weekly TE usage and other data.
I didn't like what I saw from the Pats usage of Hunter Henry in week 1. The matchup wasn't great but this team looks worse than last year.
I'm not a fan of any current or former Pats OC without Brady. Its predictable how that works out. For Henry, he is amazing in the RZ. But can this Pats team score more TDs than last year? He is very TD dependent, just like Knox, but doesn't have Josh Allen at QBI didn't like what I saw from the Pats usage of Hunter Henry in week 1. The matchup wasn't great but this team looks worse than last year.
Not a fan of this year's OC.
Henry has always been held back by his volume. 90 targets is sort of our minimum threshold, last 3 years it's been 76-93-75.
But the encouraging thing to me about HH is the efficiency. We like to say TDs are variable and hard to predict, and that holds true 95% + of the time. Then you have guys like Henry who are always efficient in the RZ. He's never had a season below 25% RZ conversion rate. You can't even say that about the big 4 veterans (Andrews, Kelce, Kittle and Waller.)
While he probably will never be elite, if you're patient he won't do any more harm than the other 7 TE1s who got drafted after those 4 + Pitts.
I'm starting Logan Thomas over Dawson Knox and Taysom Hill.
Even in a 14-teamer, I think I have to bail on Kmet. Two targets in two games? Not much available (Likely, Conklin, JJohnson) but it’s not like they could do worse
Will be watching the Pitts owner in my league who also has Everett -- Just can't see them not getting that kid the ball for long. Even though I have London, I'd grab Pitts if dropped --Arthur Smith is not playing fantasy football, he’s trying to win. By not using his best player.
3 targets, 2-19
after going 7 targets, 2-19 last week
Week1 84% snaps 78% routes run
Week 2 93% snaps 91% routes run
1 TD in 19 NFL ganes