TE David Njoku, CLE (2 Viewers)

[menobrown]

How are we feel in my about Njoku with DTR now at QB?

Willing to pivot to a Kraft or even something Strange(r)?

Not even sure Njoku is playing yet.

Ok. Let’s say he is, any thoughts there?

If he's healthy he projects for massively high volume.

I hope so but there is no guarantee on volume. Jeudy and Moore are there and Tillman might be back this week. Now DTR is QB - I'm a bit worried about this one, especially coming off injury.

I'm talking about projections. I offer no guarantees.

Basing this on DTR's brief history when he's got in the game, though when I checked the play by play this morning it was a tad lower then I thought as Njoku's 14 target game vs Cincy this year was one with 3 QB's throwing to him.

DTR has played 4 games with Njoku where he's played more then 4 snaps and attempted more then 2 passes. Only two of those games did DTR start and finish.

In those 4 games Njoku had a 25.7% target share of DTR's passes. Most of that was last year, in his only action this year with Njoku that was 20.8%.

Game logs:

2024:

Cincy-5 targets for Njoku on 24 attempts from DTR. DTR only played 45% of the snaps.

2023:

Baltimore: Njoku got 7 out of 36 DTR targets. This was one of DTR's two full games.

Pittsburgh: Njoku got 15 out of 43 DTR targets and this was the other full DTR game.

Denver: Njoku got 7 out of 29 DTR targets, Walker took over for about 30% of the game.

4 games with DTR, 33 targets but if you factor in DTR only played 45% and 70% of two games if you prorated this as 3.15 games then Njoku averages about 10.5 targets over a full game with DTR. That's a healthy amount though again just a tad lower then I thought before I checked the Cincy game this year and accounted for Watson and Winston's targets to Njoku.

Now the production was not awesome in these games but that's another subject. I'd certainly view Njoku as a lot better option in a TEP format, like I mainly play, where a 6/50 kind of day makes you a borderline top 5 TE and that's the range of he's been performing with DTR.

No one invested in a Browns pass catcher should be happy about the Winston benching but out of the group I'm least concerned with Njoku, if he's even healthy enough to play a full complement of snaps.

 

[menobrown]

is there a Tuesday practice report?

Only if a team plays before Sunday.

He's not expected to practice today. Said to be working his way back but status still uncertain for this week.

 

[kinghill]

Daniel Oyefusi

@DanielOyefusi


Browns pre-practice injury reportThe following players are not expected to practice today due to injury:Martin Emerson (concussion)Shelby Harris (elbow)David Njoku (hamstring)


11:50 AM · Dec 18, 2024
·
17.6K
Views

x.com

x.com

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Are people rolling him out if he plays? Between DTR and the reinjury risk, it’s a little scary. But Cinci is a dream matchup and he’s probably better than any WW options (mine are Ertz, Strange and Chig)

 

[MAC_32]

Are people rolling him out if he plays? Between DTR and the reinjury risk, it’s a little scary. But Cinci is a dream matchup and he’s probably better than any WW options (mine are Ertz, Strange and Chig)

Starting LaPorta and Jeudy instead of Njoku and Jameson (traditional PPR).

Would like to start him over Coop (TE premium) if he's active.

 

[pecorino]

I'm leaning towards Dalton Kincaid. I'd prefer Njoku but can't risk taking a zero. I'll check the news closer to gametime.

 

[Mitchie]

Looks like he's active

 

[SanDawg]

Part of me wanted this guy not to play today....now I have to trust that he is healthy enough to contribute with a suspect starting QB....damn

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Starting him with a relatively high degree of confidence. He could be limited, and the offense could tank with DTR, but in his previous starts he’s fed Njoku, plus DN has been a top RZ option all year.

If I go down, I’m going down with the guy who got me here

 

[Schmeabs]

Is he even playing?

 

[Uncle Leo]

Browns to sit Njoku (knee), Tillman (concussion)

The Browns have ruled out tight end David Njoku and wide receiver Cedric Tillman for Sunday's home game against the Dolphins.

www.espn.com

 

[jumper]

With the chaos that’s the Browns QB room, what’s the prognosis for Njoku?

 

[mjb03003]

He's my dynasty starting TE by default. Nobody will trade for him and he's way too good to drop to waivers.

I'm constantly wanting to upgrade but unless you're getting a Kittle type you haven't really upgraded.

Interestingly I traded Njoku and Javonte Williams for George Kittle a few days before he signed his big extension.

I wouldn’t move too hasty to sell Njoku cheap. He’s not old. He’s produced with sketchy QB situations in the past. He’s a fun guy to root for, with his acrobatic catches and YAC ability. But I understand the desire to upgrade and this year’s rookie class offers 5 pretty exciting prospects who it would make sense to stash in hopes they can becomes your TE1 before njoku starts to fade physically.

 

[menobrown]

With the chaos that’s the Browns QB room, what’s the prognosis for Njoku?

Top 3 in TE targets and everything that goes with it.

 

[Faust]

Dwain McFarland
David Njoku managers, I know he didn't score points today, but he didn't lose his role to Fannin.

85% routes
14% targets

He was just the odd man out today. Having a lot of mouths to feed doesn't help, but he is playing.

https://x.com/dwainmcfarland/status/1964858989386326281?s=61

 

[Faust]

Njoku drags defenders for a 17-yard gain

 

[Faust]

Jacob Gibbs
I wouldn't panic drop David Njoku, but his Week 1 usage was strange.

His horizontally-breaking route rate dropped from 22% in 2024 to 13.5% in Week 1.

Harold Fannin Jr. had a 33% rate, for comparison.

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1965455212187140519?s=61

 

[RaidersAreOne]

As a greedy Fannin owner I would love to see Njoku moved. I think he is such a solid TE though in all seriousness. I wonder what the Browns have planned due to his contract expiring after this year.

 

[DeaLerZ]

As a greedy Fannin owner I would love to see Njoku moved. I think he is such a solid TE though in all seriousness. I wonder what the Browns have planned due to his contract expiring after this year.

Same.. Also, a small chance he misses this week and we get to see what Fannin can do. They are definitely limiting each other's upside right now... I have them both

 

[togo]

This guy is useless and droppable.

3 targets and 2 catches for 11 yards.

Anyone watching his games.
Is he out on the field much?
Does he not get open?
Do they not look for him?
Fannin getting more of the looks?

 

[Cowboysfan8]

About to drop him myself

 

[Uncle Leo]

About to drop him myself

He was dropped in my 12 Men Full Point PPR league.

 

[The Frankman]

David Njoku caught 6-of-9 targets for 67 yards and a touchdown in the Browns’ Week 5 loss to the Vikings.

The switch to Dillon Gabriel wasn’t good for everyone in the Browns’ offense, but it was clearly a net positive for the tight ends. Njoku set season-highs across the board and logged a monstrous 27 percent target share. Harold Fannin also remained involved with four grabs and a touchdown. Gabriel struggled on his deep throws but had no issues hitting the layups to his tight ends and running backs. That won’t change in his second start next week, meaning fantasy managers can keep Njoku in their lineups as a low-end TE1 versus Pittsburgh.
- Rotoworld

 

[Absolutely Nothing]

Hearing lots of trade rumors linking him to the Jags- it would be a shame to see him leave the Browns, as he's been one of my favorite players in his time there, and you have to imagine that he's not going to be nearly as productive in the Cohen system unless he and Trevor develop a rapport quickly.

 

[Footballdaz]

Hearing lots of trade rumors linking him to the Jags- it would be a shame to see him leave the Browns, as he's been one of my favorite players in his time there, and you have to imagine that he's not going to be nearly as productive in the Cohen system unless he and Trevor develop a rapport quickly.

As a Fannin owner it would turn him into an instant TE 1 if Njuko was traded. He'd get 8 -10 targets a game. I'm praying for a trade.

 

[daveR]

FWIW, Gabriel targetted him more than Flacco did.

 

[Absolutely Nothing]

FWIW, Gabriel targetted him more than Flacco did.

To be expected from a rookie to be fair- Njoku is one of the most solid safety net-type players in the league, and is ultra-consistent in his play. That being said, given we have a few weeks until the bye, I did drop Juwuan Johnson for Fannin in the league where he was available on speculation. It helps that Njoku seems like he'll be a solid play even if he stays, but I'd rather not roster two Browns TEs.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

I hope he gets traded.

 

[rockaction]

I hope he gets traded.

Not if Gabriel keeps starting. Massive snap, route, and target uptick for him over the usual for this year.

 

[MAC_32]

I hope he gets traded.

Not if Gabriel keeps starting. Massive snap, route, and target uptick for him over the usual for this year.

Njoku's upside is driven by scoring touchdowns, of which he won't get many of in Cleveland. And I say this hoping he gets extended, not traded.

 

[Absolutely Nothing]

I hope he gets traded.

Not if Gabriel keeps starting. Massive snap, route, and target uptick for him over the usual for this year.

Njoku's upside is driven by scoring touchdowns, of which he won't get many of in Cleveland. And I say this hoping he gets extended, not traded.

I mean, isn't that everybody's "upside" at the TE position? Are we complaining about getting 9 targets and playing 96% of the snaps? I don't think anyone is saying he's elite, but it's not like he's wasted in Cleveland if he scores 11 points a game (I.E. his point total last week minus the TD).

 

[MAC_32]

I hope he gets traded.

Not if Gabriel keeps starting. Massive snap, route, and target uptick for him over the usual for this year.

Njoku's upside is driven by scoring touchdowns, of which he won't get many of in Cleveland. And I say this hoping he gets extended, not traded.

I mean, isn't that everybody's "upside" at the TE position? Are we complaining about getting 9 targets and playing 96% of the snaps? I don't think anyone is saying he's elite, but it's not like he's wasted in Cleveland if he scores 11 points a game (I.E. his point total last week minus the TD).

1 game certainly makes a sample

 

[Absolutely Nothing]

I hope he gets traded.

Not if Gabriel keeps starting. Massive snap, route, and target uptick for him over the usual for this year.

Njoku's upside is driven by scoring touchdowns, of which he won't get many of in Cleveland. And I say this hoping he gets extended, not traded.

I mean, isn't that everybody's "upside" at the TE position? Are we complaining about getting 9 targets and playing 96% of the snaps? I don't think anyone is saying he's elite, but it's not like he's wasted in Cleveland if he scores 11 points a game (I.E. his point total last week minus the TD).

1 game certainly makes a sample

I mean sure, you can feel free to interpret it that way, but it’s not like there is no reason to believe the single game extrapolates out. Do you not think that highly consistent veteran TEs are a boon for rookie QBs? Do think it’s a bad idea to continue this offensive game plan considering the other receiving options? IMO the two best pass catchers are the two TEs and I would anticipate this team wants to run the ball and make easy passes all day, and Njoku’s gonna be on the field for all aspects of that plan.

One data point isn’t a trend, but we have more context than just the raw scoring stats. It seems reductive to just discard it because it’s just “one game”. The whole game of fantasy football is trying to guess what’s going to happen based on highly variable statistical white noise

 

[rockaction]

I hope he gets traded.

Not if Gabriel keeps starting. Massive snap, route, and target uptick for him over the usual for this year.

Njoku's upside is driven by scoring touchdowns, of which he won't get many of in Cleveland. And I say this hoping he gets extended, not traded.

I mean, isn't that everybody's "upside" at the TE position? Are we complaining about getting 9 targets and playing 96% of the snaps? I don't think anyone is saying he's elite, but it's not like he's wasted in Cleveland if he scores 11 points a game (I.E. his point total last week minus the TD).

1 game certainly makes a sample

I mean sure, you can feel free to interpret it that way, but it’s not like there is no reason to believe the single game extrapolates out. Do you not think that highly consistent veteran TEs are a boon for rookie QBs? Do think it’s a bad idea to continue this offensive game plan considering the other receiving options? IMO the two best pass catchers are the two TEs and I would anticipate this team wants to run the ball and make easy passes all day, and Njoku’s gonna be on the field for all aspects of that plan.

One data point isn’t a trend, but we have more context than just the raw scoring stats. It seems reductive to just discard it because it’s just “one game”. The whole game of fantasy football is trying to guess what’s going to happen based on highly variable statistical white noise

MAC_32 is a long-time fantasy dude, Cleveland stalwart, and knows ball. That said, his broader point about sample size buts up against the immediacy of the redraft year. SIgmund Bloom has often said something to this effect (paraphrased) on his show, "one week is a trend, two weeks means it's real" or something like that. His is much more clever than that, but you get my point. His point is you should notice the first week a change or event happens, especially when there is a good reason for that event or happening and there is an action we can take to do something about it.

Our ability to wait for sample sizes is totally diminished by the vagaries of both the NFL and, in this case, Cleveland qua Cleveland, which, given that I cheer for the Jets, a franchise that is parallel in its awfulness, is a weird thing to say. Well, one would think, anyway, but I just looked at Deshaun Watson's contract again and the two words I thought of were "chastity belt." I don't know why. Take a gander at the link and click on the scissors next to the years on the right hand side of the table to see just how much they owe if they trade or cut him in 2026 or 2027. He must have had pictures of Haslem and . . . oh my God. Never mind what it will cost you, though, because if you thought you could trade him and get salary off of your books, lookie there! No-trade clause right in there for '25 and '26 just in case this didn't work out! And whoever would have thought it wouldn't.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/21753/deshaun-watson

Back to Njoku. Best I can recall he had 8 or so excellent games in a row exactly once. He's been there a while. That was with Flacco when they went to the playoffs in '23. He finished in 6th for TEs in PPR (not Premium because I don't have the setting) that year. Otherwise, this year he is 15th, 11th in 2024, 6th (as mentioned), 11th in 2022, 22 in '21, 47th in '20, 85th in '19 . . .

How about advanced metrics: well, the sticky ones for TEs are route participation, target share per route, and red zone targets.

His yards per route run: 18th with 1.19 in 2025, 35th with 1.35 in '24, 9th with 1.72 in 2023, 10th with 1.65 in 2022
His total routes run in: 6th in 2025 (164 routes ), 26th in 2024 (374), 3rd in 2023 (513), 15th in 2022 (381)
His target share: 16th with 16.48% in 2025, 4th with 22.77% in 2024, 6th with 20.60% in 2023, 11th with 18.52% 2022
His Targets per Route Run ratio: .18 in 2025, .26 in 2024, .24 in 2023, .21 in 2022
Red Zone targets, absolute and in comparison: 12th in '25 (3 targets), 14th in '24 (12), 3rd in '23 (17), 2nd in '22 (20) , 24th in '21 (8), and 33rd in '20 (6)

So, I mean you can all look at this. He's like an inkblot test, but really, he looks like around TE10-14 just like his rankings seem to be the past few years. Fannin is there and there has been a change at QB, but who knows how long until the next change, etc. It's Cleveland.

 

[Absolutely Nothing]

I hope he gets traded.

Not if Gabriel keeps starting. Massive snap, route, and target uptick for him over the usual for this year.

Njoku's upside is driven by scoring touchdowns, of which he won't get many of in Cleveland. And I say this hoping he gets extended, not traded.

I mean, isn't that everybody's "upside" at the TE position? Are we complaining about getting 9 targets and playing 96% of the snaps? I don't think anyone is saying he's elite, but it's not like he's wasted in Cleveland if he scores 11 points a game (I.E. his point total last week minus the TD).

1 game certainly makes a sample

I mean sure, you can feel free to interpret it that way, but it’s not like there is no reason to believe the single game extrapolates out. Do you not think that highly consistent veteran TEs are a boon for rookie QBs? Do think it’s a bad idea to continue this offensive game plan considering the other receiving options? IMO the two best pass catchers are the two TEs and I would anticipate this team wants to run the ball and make easy passes all day, and Njoku’s gonna be on the field for all aspects of that plan.

One data point isn’t a trend, but we have more context than just the raw scoring stats. It seems reductive to just discard it because it’s just “one game”. The whole game of fantasy football is trying to guess what’s going to happen based on highly variable statistical white noise

MAC_32 is a long-time fantasy dude, Cleveland stalwart, and knows ball. That said, his broader point about sample size buts up against the immediacy of the redraft year. SIgmund Bloom has often said something to this effect (paraphrased) on his show, "one week is a trend, two weeks means it's real" or something like that. His is much more clever than that, but you get my point. His point is you should notice the first week a change or event happens, especially when there is a good reason for that event or happening and there is an action we can take to do something about it.

Our ability to wait for sample sizes is totally diminished by the vagaries of both the NFL and, in this case, Cleveland qua Cleveland, which, given that I cheer for the Jets, a franchise that is parallel in its awfulness, is a weird thing to say. Well, one would think, anyway, but I just looked at Deshaun Watson's contract again and the two words I thought of were "chastity belt." I don't know why. Take a gander at the link and click on the scissors next to the years on the right hand side of the table to see just how much they owe if they trade or cut him in 2026 or 2027. He must have had pictures of Haslem and . . . oh my God. Never mind what it will cost you, though, because if you thought you could trade him and get salary off of your books, lookie there! No-trade clause right in there for '25 and '26 just in case this didn't work out! And whoever would have thought it wouldn't.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/21753/deshaun-watson

Back to Njoku. Best I can recall he had 8 or so excellent games in a row exactly once. He's been there a while. That was with Flacco when they went to the playoffs in '23. He finished in 6th for TEs in PPR (not Premium because I don't have the setting) that year. Otherwise, this year he is 15th, 11th in 2024, 6th (as mentioned), 11th in 2022, 22 in '21, 47th in '20, 85th in '19 . . .

How about advanced metrics: well, the sticky ones for TEs are route participation, target share per route, and red zone targets.

His yards per route run: 18th with 1.19 in 2025, 35th with 1.35 in '24, 9th with 1.72 in 2023, 10th with 1.65 in 2022
His total routes run in: 6th in 2025 (164 routes ), 26th in 2024 (374), 3rd in 2023 (513), 15th in 2022 (381)
His target share: 16th with 16.48% in 2025, 4th with 22.77% in 2024, 6th with 20.60% in 2023, 11th with 18.52% 2022
His Targets per Route Run ratio: .18 in 2025, .26 in 2024, .24 in 2023, .21 in 2022
Red Zone targets, absolute and in comparison: 12th in '25 (3 targets), 14th in '24 (12), 3rd in '23 (17), 2nd in '22 (20) , 24th in '21 (8), and 33rd in '20 (6)

So, I mean you can all look at this. He's like an inkblot test, but really, he looks like around TE10-14 just like his rankings seem to be the past few years. Fannin is there and there has been a change at QB, but who knows how long until the next change, etc. It's Cleveland.

Excellent stats dive, I appreciate the work you put in to compiling this! My one piece of push-back is that if you’re looking at just the last two seasons (‘23, ‘24), it feels appropriate to mention that in ‘24 Njoku missed 6 games, and unless I’m missing something, most of the advanced metrics you’ve reference included don’t account per-game or per-route. I’m not able to sit down and pull those stats to see how they stack up to the competition, but he scored the 4th most point per game (PPR), so if we treat that as a second season-long data point we have a “trend” indicating Njoku is a mid-top 10 TE (of course, in absence of other relevant context). Not saying he will, or that everything is exactly the same as those two seasons, but I feel it’s fair to defend Njoku’s 2024 as better than the raw stats suggest.

But I digress- it’s fair that Njoku isn’t an elite option and is unlikely to score 18 points per game, which fits him in the miasma of “borderline TE1” even with his current pace. Here’s hoping I’m right about his current trend being positive, though!

 

[menobrown]

Excellent stats dive, I appreciate the work you put in to compiling this! My one piece of push-back is that if you’re looking at just the last two seasons (‘23, ‘24), it feels appropriate to mention that in ‘24 Njoku missed 6 games, and unless I’m missing something, most of the advanced metrics you’ve reference included don’t account per-game or per-route

Yeah and sorry to say Roc because you obviously put a lot of time into that post but I don't think it painted an accurate picture of just how much of a volume sponge he's been.

I've posted this early in this off-season, maybe a different thread, but I recall tracking Njoku's games over the last two seasons when Watson was not the starting QB as he's known not to use the TE frequently. I used an 18 game sample size over the past two years and Njoku got over 160 targets in those 18 games. His targets, catches and overall production prorated to 17 games was basically on par with the seasons Bowers and McBride had last year.

Even if I don't remove the Watson games, he's been TE4 and TE6 in TEP 1.5 PPR format in PPG the last two seasons and he's played a lot of those games at far less then 100% healthy.

This is why early in the off-season I had Njoku as my TE3 in TEP.

What was accurate from my early off-season analysis is the Browns throw to TE's a ton. Right now they are tied in TE targets on the season but I expect when the season is over they'll convincingly lead this category. In games Gabriel starts and they have both of the TE's on this team they are going to smash everyone else.

But obviously now he's sharing the pie and that I was not counting on that early in the off-season when I had him as TE3. I read that situation very wrong in fact. I viewed him as a major team leader, kind of guy who got badly burned but was still showing up to play, have heard Stefanski laud his toughness often. Cornerstone kind of guy that may not be around when the team is able to compete but the kind of guy who helps keep a lockeroom going through challenging times together.

As part of this thought process when I heard Haslem was part of a group visting him, in Florida I believe, this off-season I thought it was a fait accompli to extending him. I now think Haslem took the time to be part of that visit to explain to him what he's meant to the team but that where they are right now extending him was not in everyone's best interest and in fact wanted to give him a heads up personally that they might trade him.

I view his value in the targets, even sharing the load with Fannin, as long as popgun arm Gabriel is the QB he's going to get a lot of targets, just not as much as I counted on before they acquired Fannin. But I also play in TEP formats where I get 1.5 points for just a catch, perhaps in other formats the TD's are more of a driver? Things could get rough when Sanders is starting some games.....if Njoku is still on the team.

 

[rockaction]

most of the advanced metrics you’ve reference included don’t account per-game or per-route

I honestly bricked on the six games. I'm not pushing back at your conclusion, but I think "yards per routes run" and "targets per routes run" is a per-route stat by definition. The other two stats that measure routes run and red zone targets would be compiled or counting stats.

Target share is by total team routes so in this case it doesn't help with the six games missed, but for the other years it's a good reflection of how much he was involved in total volume. Peace.

 

[rockaction]

Yeah and sorry to say Roc because you obviously put a lot of time into that post but I don't think it painted an accurate picture of just how much of a volume sponge he's been.

Yeah, I wasn't going to push back on our friend here, but yards per routes run and target share are the two stickiest stats there are for TEs. And I certainly included them. He's not really that much of a volume sponge in the absolute sense. At all. I did total red zone targets. And I listed Njoku's target share of his team's total routes, so I have no idea what else you were sort of expecting with it.

I think if Gabriel remains his QB that he will get a lot of volume, and it's why I chimed in (I think MAC_32 sells it short) but I also roster Njoku in my non-PPR league (.2 per reception), and aside from '23, he hasn't been someone to have in your lineup. So we have different perspectives on it.

I'm not mad, I just think you ought to read my post again and see what I included. We might come to different conclusions about Njoku when it comes to the past five years. In my defense on that one, he's had one finish among TEs in the top six at six exactly, two times at eleven, and the rest have been outside of the TE1 area, which is why I said he was ususally a TE10-14. Him finishing the sixth was the outlier of his career, and I'd direct you to this article to see what I'm getting at.*

It's by Chase Stuart from headier days here (I wasn't really here yet in any sense) and I was reading it last night, coincidentally.

Regression to the Mean

www.footballguys.com

This is also important to understand what I'm saying. This is a great thread about regression to the mean, what it means, and how we should use it. All sides of the debate are covered and that means from using subjective analysis totally to looking at positional norms and adjusting with those when predicting fantasy points. It's excellent.

Post in thread 'The Pitfalls of "Regression to the Mean" analysis'

Jul 4, 2010

Regression to the mean is best understood in Bayesian terms, IMO, and the basic idea can be stated pretty simply.

If we expect a player to perform at Level X, and he in fact performs for a limited period at Level Y, we should update our expectations for him to be somewhere between X and Y.

So if we expected Nicks to be a 14 yards-per-catch receiver, and he averaged 16 yards per catch in 2009, we should update our estimation of his true YPC ability to be higher than 14 but lower than 16.

The idea is that his actual performance gives us new data to consider, pushing him away from our...

• Maurile Tremblay

And this is where they discuss how important YPRR and Target Share are

Fantasy Points Data: Most Important TE Stats | Fantasy Points

We use our industry-changing Fantasy Points Data Suite to describe the most actionable advanced tight end metrics for fantasy football.

www.fantasypoints.com

This is the rest of the FBG discussion between Maurile, Adam Harstad, and Sigmund Bloom. It's really illustrative and paints the middle ground I'm trying to get at here.

Post in thread 'The Pitfalls of "Regression to the Mean" analysis'

Jul 6, 2010

Regression to the mean is best understood in Bayesian terms, IMO, and the basic idea can be stated pretty simply.

If we expect a player to perform at Level X, and he in fact performs for a limited period at Level Y, we should update our expectations for him to be somewhere between X and Y.

So if we expected Nicks to be a 14 yards-per-catch receiver, and he averaged 16 yards per catch in 2009, we should update our estimation of his true YPC ability to be higher than 14 but lower than 16.

The idea is that his actual performance gives us new data to consider, pushing him away from our...

• Jason Wood

*I take your point about points-per-game for last year, which is valid, and he's 7th by FantasyPros counting for PPR (non-Prem). I tend to use PPG with a definite grain of salt for guys that miss time otherwise I wind up with the Kittles and McCaffreys of the world and they can help you win or nuke your season. But that's not really what we're thinking with Njoku. Again, I'm the one who raised the point because I disagreed it was that easy to dismiss this. So . . . YMMV.

 

[menobrown]

He's not really that much of a volume sponge in the absolute sense. At all.

I've already posted how much targets he's got the last few years. If you can't acknowledge that getting over 160 targets in his last 18 games without Watson before this year or just over 8 targets a game period the last two years as being a volume sponge, and even go so far as to throw in an "at-all" then I'm not really sure what to say.

Him finishing the sixth was the outlier of his career,

I already posted he was TE4 and TE6 the last two years in TEP PPG which does not make a single year an outlier.

I have repeatedly outlined how I view him in the prism of TEP and how that might be different from other leagues.

I'm not mad, I just think you ought to read my post again and see what I included.

I'm not mad either but since you seemed to dismiss the target date and PPG data over the last two years I provided I could say the same thing to you and on that note I try to read what you reply with, truly, and I know I'm can sometimes get lenghty in my replies, but you really could use some work on your brevity.

 

[MAC_32]

@rockaction thanks for providing those metrics. I had also started my own analysis and thankfully it was not redundant to what both you and @menobrown provided. The sample I used was a much larger one - it's since Baker suffered the shoulder injury that triggered his demise in Cleveland in week 2 2021. This analysis captures all the noise, including his games with Watson.

Let's set 3 tiers - one at 10 pts, another at 15, and the final one at 20 (assume full ppr, all else standard). The 10 point baseline is average, 15+ is a quality start, and 20+ is great. In this 61 game sample he has 14 average starts, 9 good starts, and 6 great starts - a little more than half the time he does not perform to a mediocre standard (5-49-0). Let's dive into those starts.

Great starts - the Browns scored at least 29 points in 4 of them, the 2 exceptions were a Flacco win vs Chicago that included 14 targets (10-104-1) and the game against Cincinnati when Deshaun tore his achilles last year when he also net 14 targets (10-76-1) after Jameis came in
Good starts - 3 of them were Jameis starts, 3 more were during Flacco's hot finish to 2023, 1 was last week, and while the offense didn't perform well in the other 2 they contained a common theme to last week's game with Dillon Gabriel - he scored (7-59-1 and 4-77-1).
Average starts - five of these were low volume (5.4 targets /gm) games in which he scored and the other nine were high volume (9.6 targets /gm) games in which he did not

The last time this Browns offense has scored 20+ points in a game not started by Jameis was the playoff clincher against the Jets in week 17 of 2023. Unless you're a believer in Gabriel, or think he's going to be quickly benched in favor of Shedeur and you're a believer in him, this is the source of my concern with Njoku going forward. His high volume games are not likely to be needle movers, but rather just average. His good and great performances were either with Jameis, 2023 Flacco, or when the Browns scored a bunch of points. Given that he likely has to hit pay dirt to provide impact in our game and this offense has scored just 8 touchdowns in 5 games - one was a 4 yard drive and another in garbage time.

Do with that what you will.

 

[rockaction]

He's not really that much of a volume sponge in the absolute sense. At all.

I've already posted how much targets he's got the last few years. If you can't acknowledge that getting over 160 targets in his last 18 games without Watson before this year or just over 8 targets a game period the last two years as being a volume sponge, and even go so far as to throw in an "at-all" then I'm not really sure what to say.

Him finishing the sixth was the outlier of his career,

I already posted he was TE4 and TE6 the last two years in TEP PPG which does not make a single year an outlier.

I have repeatedly outlined how I view him in the prism of TEP and how that might be different from other leagues.

I'm not mad, I just think you ought to read my post again and see what I included.

I'm not mad either but since you seemed to dismiss the target date and PPG data over the last two years I provided I could say the same thing to you and on that note I try to read what you reply with, truly, and I know I'm can sometimes get lenghty in my replies, but you really could use some work on your brevity.

Sure. I elaborated on the points per game probably while you were typing this out. I also told you why I discounted it a bit. That's fine if you don't agree, and you were clearly typing this so you couldn't have seen my edit. Understandable.

If you want to do a subjective analysis of Njoku without Watson that's fair and you're more than welcome to do so. That's why I offered up those references and links; so you could see why I'm not weighing every subjective thing in my analysis. Sometimes at the granular level one no longer sees anything—it's just sand in one's eyes. I ironically didn't want to burden you with pages of words and reasons; I was trying to do more more with less and I'll get to that, but this is what I'm talking about.

@rockaction thanks for providing those metrics. I had also started my own analysis and thankfully it was not redundant to what both you and @menobrown provided. The sample I used was a much larger one - it's since Baker suffered the shoulder injury that triggered his demise in Cleveland in week 2 2021. This analysis captures all the noise, including his games with Watson.

I'm in between your position with Absolutely Nothing and MAC_32's. I'm a moderate. I would include Watson even in predicting Njoku. Even when Njoku was younger. But in my head, I'd give more weight to the past five years more or only use that. I wouldn't go back to Baker.

And this is the philosophical debate I was linking to (it was actually relevant) and why I chose not to separate out Watson. I've seen enough particularities with guys and arguments about how it will be different this time that I still go case-by-case but I'm much less moved by things that are particular to the player. I'm still aware of them. I probably should have covered that more in-depth and explicitly regarding Njoku/Watson, but . . .

Brevity. I regret that you felt that I bent (or have been bending) your ear and that you thought I was wordy. I was trying (obviously imperfectly) to cover three people's points and I thought that was a sign of respect rather than a too-long opus. Don't get me wrong; I'm not apologizing for it at all, and I will continue to address all the points I think are necessary to address within my posts because I don't just write for the recipient of the quote or whatever it is that alerts a person—this is public and everybody is reading it. I write both for amicable recipients and for people who care and want to read a full explanation within reason. If you ever feel burdened by it I don't doubt you'll know what to do to preserve your sensibilities.

I did a word count on our posts just for kicks. Yours was 504 words. My response to you, minus links but with the introductions to them, was 456. Soul of wit and all.

 

[rockaction]

@rockaction thanks for providing those metrics. I had also started my own analysis and thankfully it was not redundant to what both you and @menobrown provided. The sample I used was a much larger one - it's since Baker suffered the shoulder injury that triggered his demise in Cleveland in week 2 2021. This analysis captures all the noise, including his games with Watson.

Let's set 3 tiers - one at 10 pts, another at 15, and the final one at 20 (assume full ppr, all else standard). The 10 point baseline is average, 15+ is a quality start, and 20+ is great. In this 61 game sample he has 14 average starts, 9 good starts, and 6 great starts - a little more than half the time he does not perform to a mediocre standard (5-49-0). Let's dive into those starts.

Great starts - the Browns scored at least 29 points in 4 of them, the 2 exceptions were a Flacco win vs Chicago that included 14 targets (10-104-1) and the game against Cincinnati when Deshaun tore his achilles last year when he also net 14 targets (10-76-1) after Jameis came in
Good starts - 3 of them were Jameis starts, 3 more were during Flacco's hot finish to 2023, 1 was last week, and while the offense didn't perform well in the other 2 they contained a common theme to last week's game with Dillon Gabriel - he scored (7-59-1 and 4-77-1).
Average starts - five of these were low volume (5.4 targets /gm) games in which he scored and the other nine were high volume (9.6 targets /gm) games in which he did not

The last time this Browns offense has scored 20+ points in a game not started by Jameis was the playoff clincher against the Jets in week 17 of 2023. Unless you're a believer in Gabriel, or think he's going to be quickly benched in favor of Shedeur and you're a believer in him, this is the source of my concern with Njoku going forward. His high volume games are not likely to be needle movers, but rather just average. His good and great performances were either with Jameis, 2023 Flacco, or when the Browns scored a bunch of points. Given that he likely has to hit pay dirt to provide impact in our game and this offense has scored just 8 touchdowns in 5 games - one was a 4 yard drive and another in garbage time.

Do with that what you will.

MAC_32, this is really interesting. We've just unwittingly had a similar debate to the one that I was reading last night. I was linking to it in my post. Maurile Tremblay, Sigmund Bloom, Adam Harstad, Jason Wood, and the commenters are all discussing this sort of thing and it's really interesting. When do you start looking at the specifics of a player's situation more than you look at his career numbers—or as Adam seems to be getting at, when do you even ignore year-long deviations by a player when the year's statistics at the position, when aggregated, are potentially outliers themselves? Adam looks at a great year Eli Manning had where his statistics jumped, but when looked at in relation to all his QB colleagues he still stays in the general ordinal range of QB ranking he had always been.

It was interesting and this reminds me of it. Very cool. Thanks for putting the work in. I appreciate you, menobrown, and Absolutely Nothing doing all this. Cool.

 

[rockaction]

Oh, man. I started Njoku today over Fannin. I knew the longer-term trend was linear and towards Fannin, but I was definitely in the “check the one game trend”

I’m posting this because I think Round One goes to MAC_32 and it’s just funny. We’ll see how it develops, but yeah, right about now, that’s a snap share Njoku had with Baker.

https://x.com/MichaelFFlorio
Michael F. Florio
@MichaelFFlorio
·
6h
Harold Fannin Jr

Week 6- 81% snaps- 22 snaps as TE, 31 from slot, 7 out wide, 1 from backfield - 10 targets (2nd most on CLE) - 7 rec, 81 yds (both team highs)

David Njoku played just 43% of snaps

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Oh, man. I started Njoku today over Fannin. I knew the longer-term trend was linear and towards Fannin, but I was definitely in the “check the one game trend”

I’m posting this because I think Round One goes to MAC_32 and it’s just funny. We’ll see how it develops, but yeah, right about now, that’s a snap share Njoku had with Baker.

https://x.com/MichaelFFlorio
Michael F. Florio
@MichaelFFlorio
·
6h
Harold Fannin Jr

Week 6- 81% snaps- 22 snaps as TE, 31 from slot, 7 out wide, 1 from backfield - 10 targets (2nd most on CLE) - 7 rec, 81 yds (both team highs)

David Njoku played just 43% of snaps

Njoku got injured today. That’s a big reason his snap count was down.

Fannin had most of his targets in Q4 after Njoku exited for good.

Bronws' Kevin Stefanski provides details on David Njoku injury

After the Cleveland Browns' Week 6 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, head coach Kevin Stefanski updated the press on the injury to TE David Njoku.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[rockaction]

Oh, man. I started Njoku today over Fannin. I knew the longer-term trend was linear and towards Fannin, but I was definitely in the “check the one game trend”

I’m posting this because I think Round One goes to MAC_32 and it’s just funny. We’ll see how it develops, but yeah, right about now, that’s a snap share Njoku had with Baker.

https://x.com/MichaelFFlorio
Michael F. Florio
@MichaelFFlorio
·
6h
Harold Fannin Jr

Week 6- 81% snaps- 22 snaps as TE, 31 from slot, 7 out wide, 1 from backfield - 10 targets (2nd most on CLE) - 7 rec, 81 yds (both team highs)

David Njoku played just 43% of snaps

Njoku got injured today. That’s a big reason his snap count was down.

Fannin had most of his targets in Q4 after Njoku exited for good.

Bronws' Kevin Stefanski provides details on David Njoku injury

After the Cleveland Browns' Week 6 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, head coach Kevin Stefanski updated the press on the injury to TE David Njoku.

sports.yahoo.com

Thank you! They actually said something about it, and I caught it; I’ve just been up since 6 AM PDT, so there are some things going in one ear and sort of not registering.

 

[Absolutely Nothing]

Oh, man. I started Njoku today over Fannin. I knew the longer-term trend was linear and towards Fannin, but I was definitely in the “check the one game trend”

I’m posting this because I think Round One goes to MAC_32 and it’s just funny. We’ll see how it develops, but yeah, right about now, that’s a snap share Njoku had with Baker.

https://x.com/MichaelFFlorio
Michael F. Florio
@MichaelFFlorio
·
6h
Harold Fannin Jr

Week 6- 81% snaps- 22 snaps as TE, 31 from slot, 7 out wide, 1 from backfield - 10 targets (2nd most on CLE) - 7 rec, 81 yds (both team highs)

David Njoku played just 43% of snaps

Njoku got injured today. That’s a big reason his snap count was down.

Fannin had most of his targets in Q4 after Njoku exited for good.

Bronws' Kevin Stefanski provides details on David Njoku injury

After the Cleveland Browns' Week 6 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, head coach Kevin Stefanski updated the press on the injury to TE David Njoku.

sports.yahoo.com

Thank you! They actually said something about it, and I caught it; I’ve just been up since 6 AM PDT, so there are some things going in one ear and sort of not registering.

Funny how it all happens AFTER my extensive Njoku defense Luckily it sounds like you're in the same boat as me, working with a Njoku/Fannin stack. Good times ahead for CLV TE!

 

[DeaLerZ]

Any updates on his injury ?? Didn't look good

 

[zeeshan2]

Njoku (knee) is among several members of the Browns that could be moved before the Nov. 4 trade deadline, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.

At 1-5 and seemingly in a transition season, Cleveland could be an active seller leading up the deadline. In the aftermath of Sunday's 23-9 loss to the Steelers, Njoku is tending to a knee injury that kept him out of Wednesday's practice, but the issue is not viewed as a long-term concern. The tight end is in the final year of his contract, which makes him attractive to potential suitors. Harold Fannin, a rookie third-round draft pick, has been on the field nearly as much as Njoku this season and would take on a greater role at tight end if the latter is traded.

Browns' David Njoku: Likely trade candidate

Browns' David Njoku: Likely trade candidate

www.cbssports.com