TE Eric Ebron, PIT (2 Viewers)

[Phenix]

Target data for the Lions over last season-

2013

Calvin 155 targets
Durham 85 targets
Burleson 55 targets
Ogletree 25 targets
Broyles 14 targets
Edwards 11 targets
Ross 10 targets

355 total WR targets


Pettigrew 63 targets
Fauria 30 targets
Scheffler 12 targets
Dickerson 5 targets

110 total TE targets

Bush 80 targets
Bell 68 targets
Riddick 8 targets

156 total RB targets

621 total targets

That screams tons of targets for Tate, he will be a highly highly underrated WR this coming season. 140 targets between Durham and Burleson alone and Tate is better than both, even if he gets 120 of those 140 targets, thats enough for him to be extremely productive.

 

[Faust]

@7RoundsInApril · Jun 10

Remember...comps use pre-draft info for all players - current prospects are compared only to past *prospects*. NFL careers not considered.

@7RoundsInApril · Jun 10

Ranked first by tier, and then within tier. Assumes all positions have equal value.

@7RoundsInApril · Jun 10

#1 to #5: Elite Prospects with Clean Profiles

@7RoundsInApril · Jun 10

#4 Eric Ebron: possibly Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap -- believe he's a good prospect, but comps are uncertain

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Eric Ebron - TE - Lions

No. 10 overall pick Eric Ebron spent most of spring practices running with the Lions' second-team offense.

Ebron "struggled with drops" in OTAs, but finished minicamp with a bang. "He's super athletic and can get in and out of cuts," Matthew Stafford said. "He's raw, he's young, he's got to learn the NFL game like every rookie does. But there's definitely flashes of big-time talent." Ebron won't make much re-draft noise as a 21-year-old rookie, but his long-term ceiling is through the roof.

Source: MLive.com

Jun 19 - 10:43 PM

 

[jurb26]

My biggest fear with Ebron is his drops. Sounds like it's still a problem.

 

[Khy]

My biggest fear with Ebron is his drops. Sounds like it's still a problem.

My thing with him is that he reminds me a lot of Terrelle Owens in this department. Where one play TO would do like a double backflip over a ring of fire and flip again off a shark floating in a tank and catch the ball with 2 fingers into a handstand in the end zone. Then the very next play ball would hit him right between the numbers while he was doing a simple crossing route and the ball would just fall to the ground. I see that same crap when I watch Ebron. He's a highlight whore, hopefully he can get past that because when he has an easy pass and catch he takes his eyes of the ball and starts thinking of how he can make that 5 yard pass into a 50 yard TD and drops the ball. Hopefully the coaches can teach him out of that and into a 'take what you can get' type of guy.

 

[identikit]

http://www.freep.com...COL38/306220082



Eric Ebron walked off the field and sighed. “I have never made as many mistakes in football in my life,” he said, after the Lions minicamp.

Ebron looked mad at himself: “I’m so stuck in bad habits that I’ve been doing for 21 years.”

“Can you give me an example?” I asked.

“Your feet placement,” he said. “Your shoulder placement. Everything. It’s a science.”

The Lions are trying to transform this rookie first-round draft pick, trying to get rid of his bad habits, while creating him from the ground up.

Ebron is like a piece of clay. Granted, it’s an expensive piece of clay, and there is a lot of talent in that clay. The Lions have signed Ebron to four-year deal with a $7.2-million signing bonus.

And it’s a big piece of clay. Ebron is listed at 6-feet-4 and 250 pounds.

But still, he is not a finished product. He needs some polish.

“From the ground to your mind,” he said. “From your toes to the last hair on your head, they are teaching through and through.”

Even when he did some things right during minicamp, Ebron learned he could still improve.

“You might think you are right, but you could have done something better,” he said. “After the play, you’ll be like, ‘hmm, this and this and this.’ By the time (you’re) done with that play, digesting it and thinking about what you did, the next play is already getting talked about. You just have to be 100% and know it.”

In some ways, the Lions are trying to create the next Jimmy Graham, even though Graham is 3 inches taller and about 15 pounds heavier.

“He fits us because he can do some of the things that coach (Joe Lombardi) did with Jimmy Graham in New Orleans,” Lions general manager Martin Mayhew said of Ebron on draft day. “This guy is a playmaker. He’s a matchup nightmare as a tight end.”

It's the little things
It is easy to like Ebron and his attitude. He is funny and outgoing and wants to get better. I would hate for a first-round pick to think he knows everything. And it is encouraging how this new Lions coaching staff is harping on the little things.

But it also underscores a bigger issue: the urgency for him to produce.

The Lions took a huge gamble by drafting Ebron. Many, including myself, wanted them to draft a defensive back. And the secondary became an even bigger concern after the team lost Chris Houston to a toe injury, eventually cutting him.

Now, it is up to Ebron to earn that big paycheck, to validate that he was worth the No. 10 overall pick in the draft. And he needs to perfect his craft.

But he is in a great position being on a team with weapons such as Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Reggie Bush?

“The reason I’m here is because I am able to catch the ball,” Ebron said. “Everything else is fine. It’s just a matter of producing and creating an all-purpose, all-everything tight end. That’s what they are trying to do. It’s a new coaching staff and I’m a rookie, so they are trying to create me from the ground up.”

Don’t misunderstand. Ebron has not lost any confidence. He caught 62 passes for 973 yards and three touchdowns last season at North Carolina.

“I still believe I’m a pretty good tight end,” Ebron said. “Nothing is going to break my confidence. You just find out things that you wished you would have known in college. If I would have known this in college, man, I would have gone for 2,000 yards.”

Ebron has been working under the tutelage of former Lion Charlie Sanders, a Hall of Famer. “Charlie watches me every practice,” Ebron said. “He is there to give me those little hints, those little tips that can make me that much better.”

Eventually, Ebron wants to become a complete tight end. But he hasn’t even started working on his blocking.

“Blocking, that’s a whole ’nother level,” he said. “Being a tight end, to me, is the second-toughest position on the field. You have to learn blocking, route-running, catching. Everything.”

Between the end of minicamp and the start of training camp, Ebron planned to take off about a week.

Starting this week, he said he plans to practice every day, working on the things he learned in the minicamp. And he plans to spend some time training with Johnson.

“I want to take some of the things that makes him so great and push it to the tight end,” he said.

A lot to prove
As Ebron talked about the upcoming year, a radio reporter walked up.

The subject turned to his time at North Carolina and the allegations of former North Carolina basketball player Rashad McCants, who has said that he took phony classes in Chapel Hill.

“I think it’s hilarious every time somebody brings it up,” Ebron said. “I’m not Rashad McCants. I’m not in his shoes. I don’t know. But my experience at UNC was totally different from what he is saying. My experience was class, football, study hall, go to your room and try to get as much sleep as possible. Because the next day, you are going to do that same thing you just did, all over again.

“I took school serious. I took football serious. And I took everything in between serious while I was in college.”

Do you think that college athletes should be paid?

“Yes, I do,” he said. “It should all be a base salary.”

How would it work?

“Every top player on each team should be paid the same,” he said.

“But you are on scholarship,” I said. “That’s worth $100,000.”

“But we are also bringing in more than what our scholarship is worth,” he said.

But how do you determine the best player?

He blew out a laugh. “The stat book,” he said.

So let’s hold him to the same standards.

To prove he was worth a No. 10 pick, the Lions need him to produce. He has to be a difference-maker.

In the stat book.

Contact Jeff Seidel: jseidel@freepress.com . Follow him on Twitter @seideljeff .

 

[Faust]

Eric Ebron wants to be called 'hybrid' or 'joker', not TE:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000361424/article/eric-ebron-wants-to-be-called-hybrid-or-joker-not-te

 

[cstu]

Benjamin (23 years old): 6-5, 240, 4.61, 13 bench, 32.5" vertical, 9-11 broad, 4.39 SS, 7.33 3 cone

Ebron (21 years old): 6-4 3/8, 250, 4.56, 24 bench, 32" vertical, 10' broad, 4.45 SS, 7.49 3 cone

Food for thought:

Benjamin will be covered by a team's #1 CB while Ebron will mostly be covered by a linebacker or safety.

 

[jurb26]

Benjamin (23 years old): 6-5, 240, 4.61, 13 bench, 32.5" vertical, 9-11 broad, 4.39 SS, 7.33 3 cone

Ebron (21 years old): 6-4 3/8, 250, 4.56, 24 bench, 32" vertical, 10' broad, 4.45 SS, 7.49 3 cone

Food for thought:

Benjamin will be covered by a team's #1 CB while Ebron will mostly be covered by a linebacker or safety.

I dislike Benjamin maybe more than anyone around so I get what you're saying. Still, Benjamin is probably in line for 125 targets at a minimum while Ebron is in line for 65 or so.

 

[menobrown]

Benjamin (23 years old): 6-5, 240, 4.61, 13 bench, 32.5" vertical, 9-11 broad, 4.39 SS, 7.33 3 cone

Ebron (21 years old): 6-4 3/8, 250, 4.56, 24 bench, 32" vertical, 10' broad, 4.45 SS, 7.49 3 cone

Food for thought:

Benjamin will be covered by a team's #1 CB while Ebron will mostly be covered by a linebacker or safety.

I dislike Benjamin maybe more than anyone around so I get what you're saying. Still, Benjamin is probably in line for 125 targets at a minimum while Ebron is in line for 65 or so.

I highly doubt that for both players.

I just don't see why a team would use the 10th overall pick on a player with designs to only throw it to him 65 times a year, especially a TE friendly system.

Steve Smith did miss a game last year but only had 110 targets and he's a lot more varied route runner than Benjamin.

 

[jurb26]

Benjamin (23 years old): 6-5, 240, 4.61, 13 bench, 32.5" vertical, 9-11 broad, 4.39 SS, 7.33 3 cone

Ebron (21 years old): 6-4 3/8, 250, 4.56, 24 bench, 32" vertical, 10' broad, 4.45 SS, 7.49 3 cone

Food for thought:

Benjamin will be covered by a team's #1 CB while Ebron will mostly be covered by a linebacker or safety.

I dislike Benjamin maybe more than anyone around so I get what you're saying. Still, Benjamin is probably in line for 125 targets at a minimum while Ebron is in line for 65 or so.

I highly doubt that for both players.

I just don't see why a team would use the 10th overall pick on a player with designs to only throw it to him 65 times a year, especially a TE friendly system.

Steve Smith did miss a game last year but only had 110 targets and he's a lot more varied route runner than Benjamin.

Det only targeted their TEs 108 times last year and Pettigrew isn't going away. I thinks it's pretty optimistic to give Ebron even 60% of last years number. Especially seeing that Det added a viable WR2 to take targets this year as well. Smith basically averaged 7.2 targets per game which would be 120 on the season. He had seasons of 138 and 129 the 2 years prior to last, however. Also, Car totally decimated their WR group and there is basically nobody to compete with Benjamin other than Olsen.

 

[menobrown]

Benjamin (23 years old): 6-5, 240, 4.61, 13 bench, 32.5" vertical, 9-11 broad, 4.39 SS, 7.33 3 cone

Ebron (21 years old): 6-4 3/8, 250, 4.56, 24 bench, 32" vertical, 10' broad, 4.45 SS, 7.49 3 cone

Food for thought:

Benjamin will be covered by a team's #1 CB while Ebron will mostly be covered by a linebacker or safety.

I dislike Benjamin maybe more than anyone around so I get what you're saying. Still, Benjamin is probably in line for 125 targets at a minimum while Ebron is in line for 65 or so.

I highly doubt that for both players.

I just don't see why a team would use the 10th overall pick on a player with designs to only throw it to him 65 times a year, especially a TE friendly system.

Steve Smith did miss a game last year but only had 110 targets and he's a lot more varied route runner than Benjamin.

Det only targeted their TEs 108 times last year and Pettigrew isn't going away. I thinks it's pretty optimistic to give Ebron even 60% of last years number. Especially seeing that Det added a viable WR2 to take targets this year as well.Smith basically averaged 7.2 targets per game which would be 120 on the season. He had seasons of 138 and 129 the 2 years prior to last, however. Also, Car totally decimated their WR group and there is basically nobody to compete with Benjamin other than Olsen.

What Detroit did with their TE's last year is not relevant, at least that's how I see it. What is more relevant, to me anyway, is how the Saints used their TE's. Even before Jimmy Graham ascended in 2011 the previous 3 seasons the Saints averaged 143 targets to their TE's. So it's not as if they only utilized the TE heavily because of the greatness of Graham.

When Steve Smith got 138 and 129 targets the previous two seasons he was light years ahead of the player Benjamin is right now. When you don't know how to run a lot of routes you don't get a lot of targets unless you get them manufactured and Benjamin is not that kind of player.

 

[georg013]

Benjamin (23 years old): 6-5, 240, 4.61, 13 bench, 32.5" vertical, 9-11 broad, 4.39 SS, 7.33 3 cone

Ebron (21 years old): 6-4 3/8, 250, 4.56, 24 bench, 32" vertical, 10' broad, 4.45 SS, 7.49 3 cone

Food for thought:

Benjamin will be covered by a team's #1 CB while Ebron will mostly be covered by a linebacker or safety.

I dislike Benjamin maybe more than anyone around so I get what you're saying. Still, Benjamin is probably in line for 125 targets at a minimum while Ebron is in line for 65 or so.

I highly doubt that for both players.

I just don't see why a team would use the 10th overall pick on a player with designs to only throw it to him 65 times a year, especially a TE friendly system.

Steve Smith did miss a game last year but only had 110 targets and he's a lot more varied route runner than Benjamin.

Det only targeted their TEs 108 times last year and Pettigrew isn't going away. I thinks it's pretty optimistic to give Ebron even 60% of last years number. Especially seeing that Det added a viable WR2 to take targets this year as well.Smith basically averaged 7.2 targets per game which would be 120 on the season. He had seasons of 138 and 129 the 2 years prior to last, however. Also, Car totally decimated their WR group and there is basically nobody to compete with Benjamin other than Olsen.

What Detroit did with their TE's last year is not relevant, at least that's how I see it. What is more relevant, to me anyway, is how the Saints used their TE's. Even before Jimmy Graham ascended in 2011 the previous 3 seasons the Saints averaged 143 targets to their TE's. So it's not as if they only utilized the TE heavily because of the greatness of Graham.

When Steve Smith got 138 and 129 targets the previous two seasons he was light years ahead of the player Benjamin is right now. When you don't know how to run a lot of routes you don't get a lot of targets unless you get them manufactured and Benjamin is not that kind of player.

Have to agree with this. Wipe the slate clean. This is a new regime. Ebron will be targeted A LOT more than 65 times...

 

[jurb26]

Benjamin (23 years old): 6-5, 240, 4.61, 13 bench, 32.5" vertical, 9-11 broad, 4.39 SS, 7.33 3 cone

Ebron (21 years old): 6-4 3/8, 250, 4.56, 24 bench, 32" vertical, 10' broad, 4.45 SS, 7.49 3 cone

Food for thought:

Benjamin will be covered by a team's #1 CB while Ebron will mostly be covered by a linebacker or safety.

I dislike Benjamin maybe more than anyone around so I get what you're saying. Still, Benjamin is probably in line for 125 targets at a minimum while Ebron is in line for 65 or so.

I highly doubt that for both players.

I just don't see why a team would use the 10th overall pick on a player with designs to only throw it to him 65 times a year, especially a TE friendly system.

Steve Smith did miss a game last year but only had 110 targets and he's a lot more varied route runner than Benjamin.

Det only targeted their TEs 108 times last year and Pettigrew isn't going away. I thinks it's pretty optimistic to give Ebron even 60% of last years number. Especially seeing that Det added a viable WR2 to take targets this year as well.Smith basically averaged 7.2 targets per game which would be 120 on the season. He had seasons of 138 and 129 the 2 years prior to last, however. Also, Car totally decimated their WR group and there is basically nobody to compete with Benjamin other than Olsen.

What Detroit did with their TE's last year is not relevant, at least that's how I see it. What is more relevant, to me anyway, is how the Saints used their TE's. Even before Jimmy Graham ascended in 2011 the previous 3 seasons the Saints averaged 143 targets to their TE's. So it's not as if they only utilized the TE heavily because of the greatness of Graham.

When Steve Smith got 138 and 129 targets the previous two seasons he was light years ahead of the player Benjamin is right now. When you don't know how to run a lot of routes you don't get a lot of targets unless you get them manufactured and Benjamin is not that kind of player.

Before NO had Graham they had Shockey. While Shockey never saw the same amount of targets as Graham he still saw a significant amount, 199 while missing 10 games for an average of 5.2 per season. Also, NO has not had a mouth to feed like Calvin which is very important. Calvin has had 519 targets in the last 3 years averaging 11.28 per game. The top 2 WR in NO over those same 3 years have only had 581 targets or 12.1 per game. So the top 2 WR in NO have barely more targets than Calvin alone. I don't disagree with you on Benjamin, to a point. I think he is going to struggle mightily in the NFL. Still, someone has to get thrown to in Car. Right now that opportunity seems squarely on the shoulders of Benjamin.

 

[menobrown]

Benjamin (23 years old): 6-5, 240, 4.61, 13 bench, 32.5" vertical, 9-11 broad, 4.39 SS, 7.33 3 cone

Ebron (21 years old): 6-4 3/8, 250, 4.56, 24 bench, 32" vertical, 10' broad, 4.45 SS, 7.49 3 cone

Food for thought:

Benjamin will be covered by a team's #1 CB while Ebron will mostly be covered by a linebacker or safety.

I dislike Benjamin maybe more than anyone around so I get what you're saying. Still, Benjamin is probably in line for 125 targets at a minimum while Ebron is in line for 65 or so.

I highly doubt that for both players.

I just don't see why a team would use the 10th overall pick on a player with designs to only throw it to him 65 times a year, especially a TE friendly system.

Steve Smith did miss a game last year but only had 110 targets and he's a lot more varied route runner than Benjamin.

Det only targeted their TEs 108 times last year and Pettigrew isn't going away. I thinks it's pretty optimistic to give Ebron even 60% of last years number. Especially seeing that Det added a viable WR2 to take targets this year as well.Smith basically averaged 7.2 targets per game which would be 120 on the season. He had seasons of 138 and 129 the 2 years prior to last, however. Also, Car totally decimated their WR group and there is basically nobody to compete with Benjamin other than Olsen.

What Detroit did with their TE's last year is not relevant, at least that's how I see it. What is more relevant, to me anyway, is how the Saints used their TE's. Even before Jimmy Graham ascended in 2011 the previous 3 seasons the Saints averaged 143 targets to their TE's. So it's not as if they only utilized the TE heavily because of the greatness of Graham.

When Steve Smith got 138 and 129 targets the previous two seasons he was light years ahead of the player Benjamin is right now. When you don't know how to run a lot of routes you don't get a lot of targets unless you get them manufactured and Benjamin is not that kind of player.

Before NO had Graham they had Shockey. While Shockey never saw the same amount of targets as Graham he still saw a significant amount, 199 while missing 10 games for an average of 5.2 per season. Also, NO has not had a mouth to feed like Calvin which is very important. Calvin has had 519 targets in the last 3 years averaging 11.28 per game. The top 2 WR in NO over those same 3 years have only had 581 targets or 12.1 per game. So the top 2 WR in NO have barely more targets than Calvin alone.I don't disagree with you on Benjamin, to a point. I think he is going to struggle mightily in the NFL. Still, someone has to get thrown to in Car. Right now that opportunity seems squarely on the shoulders of Benjamin.

We'll see, I actually think both guys will be in the 85 target range so I'm closer to agreeing with you on Ebron than Benjamin but in general see their opportunities for targets as relatively equal which is why I responded. I don't see the disparity in projected targets as you do.

 

[jurb26]

FWI, here is what I said about the Det TEs in the spotlight thread as well as my projections.

Ebron/Pettigrew

The TE distribution is easily the most difficult portion to project for me in Det. Pettigrew is a guy at one point I thought had massive potential to break into the top tier of fantasy TEs. All of the framework was there; top QB, wide open offense, lots of targets, poor defense, ect. Yet Pettigrew just can't find a way to produce. A lot of this is due to drops which have plagued all 4 years he's been in the NFL. I believe Det has finally made the decision to move on from Pettigrew, thus the drafting of Ebron.

How quickly can we really expect Det to phase Pettigrew out though? Ebron is after all just a rookie and rookies have historically had a tough time adjusting to the NFL at TE. Worse yet, the very thing that had plagued Pettigrew all these years is a primary weakness of Ebron. Drops! This is a puzzle I'll surely not solve. Therefore, I'm inclined to call this one down the middle and safe. Boring I know. I think Ebron will be brought along relatively slowly but he could be lined up is specialty formations as a pass catcher giving him added fantasy value.

Projections

Stafford

395 completions, 630 attempts, 4755 yds, 35 TDs, 16 Ints

40 carries, 80 yds, 2 TDs

Bush

245 carries, 1165 yds, 5 TDs

82 targets, 58 receptions, 534 yds, 3 TDs

Bell

150 carries, 600 yds, 7 TDs

55 targets, 39 receptions, 389 yds, 1 TD

Calvin

168 targets, 92 receptions, 1518 yds, 14 TDs

Tate

125 targets, 77 receptions, 1040 yds, 6 TDs

Ebron

65 targets, 41 receptions, 498 yds, 3 TDs

Pettigrew

65 targets, 39 receptions, 429 yds, 2 TDs

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=707581

We're really not that far off as I've got the top 2 TEs in Det getting 130 targets alone. The distribution of those may be different from my projections but I'm still a believer that Pettigrew isn't going away in year 1.

 

[Biabreakable]

Over the last 3 seasons Pettigrew has averaged 97 targets/season. His targets were reduced last season in part because of the addition of Reggie Bush but mostly because Pettigrew is not very good as a reciever. So they could not justify force feeding him so many targets with better options around. He is a good blocker however.

Brandon Pettigrew has had 290 targets 183 receptions over the last 3 seasons. His role as a reciever was greatly reduced in 2013 where he only had 64 targets. He did miss 2 games so that would pro rate to 73 targets. A significant reduction from the 100 and 126 the 2 seasons prior. After averaging less than 10 yards/reception on 142 catches the previous 2 seasons. I also think he was asked to block a bit more as the Lions were playing Reiff at LT for the 1st time who was replacing Jeff Backus. So if they hadn't drafted Ebron perhaps his targets would have gone up a bit. But I think Fauria may have earned more of a role in the passing game instead.

In 2012 Pettigrew and Scheffler combined for 219 targets. So it is not very long ago that Stafford and the Lions have heavily featured 2 TE in their passing offense.

Fauria may be in the mix at times as well especially around the goal line as we saw from his 7TD last season. I more expect Ebron to be used in this role. But there may be times when both he and Ebron are on the field or even all 3TE.

I see Ebron stepping into this former role as the TE1 target and also the same role that Graham has with the Saints as stated by the coaches about thier intent to use Ebron in such a role. Graham has averaged 143 targets over the last 3 seasons. Furthermore the Lions like to run 2TE sets and the top 2TE have averaged 152 targets over the last 3 seasons, despite the low mark last season of 108 for the top 3TE combined. For both teams the top TE has had 100 or more targets 5 out 6 times in the last 3 seasons.

The high pick of Ebron may mean that targets to Ebron/Pettigrew/Fauria could be in the 200 range. With Ebron getting the Lions share. Yes yes I know he is a rookie. I think he can get 100 targets if all goes well. the last rookie TE to be drafted this high since Kellen Winslow2. I still remember Shockey going off as a rookie, so I expect at some time that might happen again, I cannot think of a better situation to make such an outcome possible, although of course unlikely. I do think Ebron will get targets similar to Graham in 2015. Many of my thoughts on the offense may lean more towards 2015 and beyond than this season.

 

[jurb26]

A lot has changed in Det since the TE targets were in the 200 range. They added Bush, who is still there and will get his. They also added Tate, clearly the best WR2 they've had in years. I can't see how Det targets the TEs in the range of 200 times with such better options in the passing game from the last time they did.

Who do you suggest is the loser in Det this year if you expect 200 targets for the TEs? Maybe you expect Stafford to throw 700 times. Possible I suppose.

 

[Biabreakable]

Jim Caldwell Joe Lombardi

2013 Lions 1102(-23sk) 634pa 6.9ay/a 445ra (QB37) 4.0ypc
2012 Lions 1160(-29sk) 740pa 6.3ay/a 391ra (QB35) 4.1ypc
2011 Lions 1058(-36sk) 666pa 7.7ay/a 356ra (QB23) 4.3ypc

3yr avg 1107(-29sk) 680pa 6.9 ay/a 397ra (QB31) 4.1ypc

2013 Saints 1079(-37sk) 651pa 8.3ay/a 391ra (QB35) 3.8
2012 Saints 1067(-26sk) 671pa 7.7ay/a 370ra (QB15) 4.3
2011 Saints 1117(-24sk) 662pa 8.8ay/a 431ra (QB21) 4.9

3yr avg 1088(-29sk) 661pa 8.3ay/a 397ra (QB27) 4.3

Combining both 3yr avg 1098(-29sk) 671pa 397ra (QB29)

1069 62.9% pass 37.1% run 672pa 397ra (QB29) is the mid range of what I am expecting for 2014



Matthew Stafford 650-672-690pa 59.5cmp% 6.9ay/a 386-399-411cmp 4225-4537-4850yds 28-31TD

Johnson 150-190tg 58% 87-111rec 16.3ypc 1418-1613-1809 8-14TD
Ebron 70-120tg 60% 42-72rec 12.5ypc 525-900yds 3-8TD
Bush 70-100tg 67.5% 47-68rec 8.5ypc 400-578yds 2-4TD
Tate 70-110tg 60% 42-66rec 13.3ypc 559-878yds 3-7TD
Bell 50-80tg 77% 39-62rec 9.8ypc 377-608yds 0-1TD
Pettigrew 40-70tg 63% 25-44rec 10ypc 250-440yds 2-5TD

Durham 20-50tg 44% 9-22rec 13.2ypc 119-290yds 0-2TD
Fauria 10-60tg 60% 6-36rec 11.5ypc 69-414yds 0-5TD
TJ Jones 0-50tg 60% 0-22rec 12.5ypc 0-275yds 0-2TD

Both teams have passed the ball 650+ times for each of the last 3 seasons except for the 2013 when the Lions only threw the ball 634 times.

 

[jurb26]

Matthew Stafford 650-672-690pa 59.5cmp% 6.9ay/a 386-399-411cmp 4225-4537-4850yds 28-31TD

Johnson 150-190tg 58% 87-111rec 16.3ypc 1418-1613-1809 8-14TD

Ebron 70-120tg 60% 42-72rec 12.5ypc 525-900yds 3-8TD

Bush 70-100tg 67.5% 47-68rec 8.5ypc 400-578yds 2-4TD

Tate 70-110tg 60% 42-66rec 13.3ypc 559-878yds 3-7TD

Bell 50-80tg 77% 39-62rec 9.8ypc 377-608yds 0-1TD

Pettigrew 40-70tg 63% 25-44rec 10ypc 250-440yds 2-5TD

Durham 20-50tg 44% 9-22rec 13.2ypc 119-290yds 0-2TD

Fauria 10-60tg 60% 6-36rec 11.5ypc 69-414yds 0-5TD

TJ Jones 0-50tg 60% 0-22rec 12.5ypc 0-275yds 0-2TD

I think you're greatly underestimating the opportunity for Tate in this offense. A high end of 110 targets seems remarkably low to me. I'd place his floor at 100 and I'm projecting 125. The odds that Ebron, as a rookie with questionable hands, comes in and has the 2nd best target total is pretty remote if you ask me. Difference of opinion I guess.

 

[Biabreakable]

Matthew Stafford 650-672-690pa 59.5cmp% 6.9ay/a 386-399-411cmp 4225-4537-4850yds 28-31TD

Johnson 150-190tg 58% 87-111rec 16.3ypc 1418-1613-1809 8-14TD

Ebron 70-120tg 60% 42-72rec 12.5ypc 525-900yds 3-8TD

Bush 70-100tg 67.5% 47-68rec 8.5ypc 400-578yds 2-4TD

Tate 70-110tg 60% 42-66rec 13.3ypc 559-878yds 3-7TD

Bell 50-80tg 77% 39-62rec 9.8ypc 377-608yds 0-1TD

Pettigrew 40-70tg 63% 25-44rec 10ypc 250-440yds 2-5TD

Durham 20-50tg 44% 9-22rec 13.2ypc 119-290yds 0-2TD

Fauria 10-60tg 60% 6-36rec 11.5ypc 69-414yds 0-5TD

TJ Jones 0-50tg 60% 0-22rec 12.5ypc 0-275yds 0-2TD

I think you're greatly underestimating the opportunity for Tate in this offense. A high end of 110 targets seems remarkably low to me. I'd place his floor at 100 and I'm projecting 125.The odds that Ebron, as a rookie with questionable hands, comes in and has the 2nd best target total is pretty remote if you ask me. Difference of opinion I guess.

Yep and not even that much of a difference really.

I know I am pushing it as far as what a TE can actually accomplish as a rookie. The way I am looking at the offense may be more how it functions in 2015 than this season. But that does seem like the goal they are working towards.

I also think Stafford likes passing to the TE considering his history of doing that. I recognize that part of those numbers are due to WR being injured in those seasons, but it is also in part his preference, how the offense is designed and how defenses choose to defend against it.

 

[cstu]

Matthew Stafford 650-672-690pa 59.5cmp% 6.9ay/a 386-399-411cmp 4225-4537-4850yds 28-31TD

Johnson 150-190tg 58% 87-111rec 16.3ypc 1418-1613-1809 8-14TD

Ebron 70-120tg 60% 42-72rec 12.5ypc 525-900yds 3-8TD

Bush 70-100tg 67.5% 47-68rec 8.5ypc 400-578yds 2-4TD

Tate 70-110tg 60% 42-66rec 13.3ypc 559-878yds 3-7TD

Bell 50-80tg 77% 39-62rec 9.8ypc 377-608yds 0-1TD

Pettigrew 40-70tg 63% 25-44rec 10ypc 250-440yds 2-5TD

Durham 20-50tg 44% 9-22rec 13.2ypc 119-290yds 0-2TD

Fauria 10-60tg 60% 6-36rec 11.5ypc 69-414yds 0-5TD

TJ Jones 0-50tg 60% 0-22rec 12.5ypc 0-275yds 0-2TD

I think you're greatly underestimating the opportunity for Tate in this offense. A high end of 110 targets seems remarkably low to me. I'd place his floor at 100 and I'm projecting 125.The odds that Ebron, as a rookie with questionable hands, comes in and has the 2nd best target total is pretty remote if you ask me. Difference of opinion I guess.

Yep and not even that much of a difference really.

I know I am pushing it as far as what a TE can actually accomplish as a rookie. The way I am looking at the offense may be more how it functions in 2015 than this season. But that does seem like the goal they are working towards.

I also think Stafford likes passing to the TE considering his history of doing that. I recognize that part of those numbers are due to WR being injured in those seasons, but it is also in part his preference, how the offense is designed and how defenses choose to defend against it.

I don't expect much more from Tate than he got last year. The three main targets in this offense are Calvin, RB, and TE. Tate will be much more effective than Durham but I'm not sure it translates into that many more targets ( <100).

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Eric Ebron - TE - Lions

First-round TE Eric Ebron said learning multiple positions is "what's killing me."

"I'm used to either learning the Y or learning the A, which we had at North Carolina. But now it's the Y, the F, the Z," Ebron continued. "It's really hard, but I'm not going to say I'm not enjoying it or not having fun doing it because I know the more I learn the faster I'm able to play, the faster I'm able to produce." Ebron went on to say he expects to line up in the slot on 50 percent of his snaps as a rookie, with the other 50 percent coming as an inline blocker and out of the backfield. We don't expect TE1 production from Ebron until 2015.

Source: Ross Tucker Podcast

Jul 1 - 10:29 AM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Brandon Pettigrew says he's embraced a more blocking-oriented role following the Lions' selection of Eric Ebron.

"Whatever it is, Im a team guy," said Pettigrew, who inked a four-year, $16 million contract to stay in Detroit before the Ebron pick was made. "You know that. Everybody here has the same goal. Were trying to win." Look for Pettigrew to play the Ben Watson role in new OC Joe Lombardi's offense, with Ebron eased into Jimmy Graham duties. 29-year-old Pettigrew has no fantasy value.

Source: Detroit Free Press

Jul 4 - 1:46 PM

 

[Bob Magaw]

The scout quotes from Bob McGinn's article at the Sentinel-Journal:

ERIC EBRON, North Carolina (6-4½, 252, 4.58, 1) Third-year junior often compared to the 49ers' Vernon Davis. "Vernon is more sudden and compact," said one scout. "Twitchy. Eric's fluid. Where Eric makes his mark is being deceptive, running in gears and transitioning well in and out of breaks. I think he has special hands. You see him making one-handed palm of the ball in traffic. He has a chance to be an exceptional player, especially the way the game's played now." Two-year starter with 112 catches for 1,805 yards (16.1) and eight TDs. "He's a top-10 talent," another scout said. "He's as talented a tight end as has come out in the last five years." Played most of his career flanked wide or in the slot. "He's not a great big bulky guy but he'll block," another scout said. "Watch him against (Jadeveon) Clowney. He didn't win but he wasn't afraid. He's (Rob) Gronkowski-like but he's a lot smoother." From Greensboro, N.C. "In this new-fangled tight end position he can stretch the field and be a matchup issue," a third scout said. "He's better than (Jermichael) Finley and (Tyler) Eifert." Wonderlic of 16.

Good post.

I liked these McGinn first hand scouting report compilations.

Vernon Davis is the stock comp for Ebron. He isn't as freakish a physical specimen and athlete (Davis arguably like a Calvin Johnson among TEs, physically and athletically), but may be a more fluid, natural and polished pass catcher at a comparable stage of development.

Davis was the last previous top 10 overall TE (1.6 in 2006), and Ebron broke his ACC receiving yardage record for a TE in 2013.

DET seems like a great destination. Pettigrew will likely block a lot in 2 TE sets (base?). Tate should be good enough to take some pressure off Calvin Johnson and Ebron, but not so good as to be an obstacle to Ebron being the clear second most important receiving weapon on the team, long term (imo). Most rookie TEs struggle, but I like his dynasty prospects in a year or two.

With Johnson, Ebron and Tate (not to mention RB Bush), Stafford could have a shot at 5,000 yards. If that transpires, Ebron will be well positioned for production if he becomes the clear future #2 target in the passing attack, and receptions aren't too distributed across the WRs after Johnson.

* In his Sports Science segment, he graded higher than Davis (just below Tony Gonzalez), tested with a larger effective catching radius than Gronkowski and had the quickest acceleration (shortest time to top speed) they have ever measured at the position.

** Ebron could have some positional upside, other than Pop Warner, he didn't play until his junior year in high school. He was such a good athlete, despite not having played yet (before his junior season), after a work out at North Carolina, then-HC Butch Davis offered him a scholarship on the spot.

*** Matt Waldman's Futures scouting profile, from last October.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2013/futures-unc-te-eric-ebron

**** Vernon Davis (wiki bio)

"He finished his college career with 1371 yards on 83 receptions for 16.5 yards per catch, the best average of any first round tight end ever and more yards than other previous high first round tight ends such as Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey, Kyle Brady and Kellen Winslow II."

Ebron's career reception and receiving yardage numbers were 105-1,727 = 16.45 average.

 

[Bob Magaw]

There were some scouts that thought Sammy Watkins and Eric Ebron were the two best receiving weapons in the draft. Historically top WRs are drafted higher than top TEs. While Watkins has been called the best WR prospect since AJ Green and Julio Jones, Ebron is the first top 10 TE since Vernon Davis, so he is arguably a more rare talent, independent of position. Since he is expected to be used like a WR at times, we can note he went three picks after the consensus #2 WR Evans and two picks before consensus #3 WR OBJ. Ebron (6'5", 245 lbs. & 4.6 40) is as tall as Evans (6'5", 230 lbs. & 4.53 40), 15 lbs. heavier and nearly as fast. Evans does have huge positional upside, too, imo, Ebron didn't play competitively until his Junior year, Evans until his senior year (and one less year of college), but Ebron may have even more fluid movement skills, crisp footwork and route running skills for a big man.

Standard disclaimer - I like Ebron far more in dynasty, where I think he is an elite, blue chip prospect, far less in redraft, at a position where young prospects historically take a while before they begin to figure things out.

Eric Ebron Can Be the Final Piece in Detroit Lions' Arsenal

By Cian Fahey, May 26, 2014

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2075250-eric-ebron-can-be-the-final-piece-in-detroit-lions-arsenal#articles/2075250-eric-ebron-can-be-the-final-piece-in-detroit-lions-arsenal

Eric Ebron, Ladarius Green among young tight ends to watch

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000364033/article/eric-ebron-ladarius-green-among-young-tight-ends-to-watch

"Ebron broke Vernion Davis' single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end in the ACC in 2013, collecting 895 yards -- and it's no coincidence that he has Vernon Davis-type skills, plus better hands. The 6-foot-4, 250-pound speedster was inspired by Graham's situation to recently argue that his position should be redefined as a "hybrid" or "joker," but regardless of what he's called, he'll be a matchup nightmare. Ebron can play outside, like a receiver, and has enough route-running ability to scare opponents. He figures to rack up yards after the catch.

Between Ebron and Golden Tate, the Lions look to finally have some legitimate options to support super-weapon Calvin Johnson."

* A lot has been made of the new DET OC's background and how he has already gone on record and stated his intent to use Ebron in SOME ways like NO used Jimmy Graham. But we could also look at HC Caldwell's background, who spent a lot of years in IND (more recently, Dennis Pitta had a breakout 61-669-7 campaign in 2012). In Dallas Clark's three most injury-free seasons (from 28-30 in 2007-2009, when he only missed one game in each of the first two seasons), he was a combined 235-2,570-27, including a career best 100-1,106-10 in 2009. Reggie Wayne had 100-1,264-10 the same season. Even Jacob Tamme had 67-631-4 in just the last 10 games of 2010 (eight starts), which would have prorated to 107-1,010-6. Not saying Stafford is Manning, just that the TE was an integral part of the Colts passing attack at times.

 

[Faust]

Eric Ebron's goal: Not let Michigan down

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Eric Ebron - TE - Lions

The Detroit Free Press reports first-round TE Eric Ebron has dropped "an inordinate number" of passes through spring and the first two days of camp.

At least one NFL scout questioned Ebron's hands, especially when going over the middle, in the pre-draft process. He had an 11.4 percent drop rate last season at UNC. Coach Jim Caldwell isn't worried, and blames Ebron learning so many positions and thinking too much right now for his shaky hands. It could be an up-and-down rookie year for Ebron. He's a late-round flier in re-draft.

Source: Detroit Free Press

Jul 30 - 9:56 AM

 

[Porkchop Express]

I see Pettigrew has taught him the 'hands of stone' catching technique.

 

[steveski]

I'm pretty surprised this guy is still going in the early-mid 1st round of rookie drafts. A move TE that has questionable hands? If he was a great blocker and was guaranteed to be on the field at all times then I understand.

There are so many WR's in this draft that I'd take before him.

 

[Donnybrook]

If Ebron continues to drop balls, Joseph Fauria might be factor again especially in the red zone. Fauria is 6'7", has a 35" vertical and excellent hands. All Stafford has to do is loft it up.

 

[Faust]

Lions Camp Report: Day 6

Excerpt:

Big day for Eric Ebron, who caught a really long pass from Matthew Stafford and appeared to be more confident on the field than he has at any point this camp. It’s still going to be a learning process for him for a bit and there will certainly be mistakes, but Saturday was encouraging. Lions coach Jim Caldwell also seemed comfortable with Ebron’s progress as he learns the multitude of spots he is expected to line up at this fall. Ebron’s play was one of the highlights for the Lions’ offense of the scrimmage considering his issues with drops.

 

[georg013]

Personally, I'm not writing this guy off or moving him down my rankings because of dropsies during training camp. He is still firmly in the first round of rookie drafts for me. They plan to use him early and often. Looking forward to reaping the benefits.

 

[Faust]

Lions' Eric Ebron: 'I've already hit my rookie wall'

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000374275/article/lions-eric-ebron-ive-already-hit-my-rookie-wall

 

[The Fantasy Chef]

I think that te's and receivers need time no matter how talented. In a nut shell the nfl and its play book schemes are a tad more comprehensive than high school and college. Also the players are all the top players over the last ten years to move to the pros that's why they refer to the game as faster. We have to be patient and give him a year or two to refine his craft at the nfl level.

 

[matuski]

I thought Fauria looked great.. all over the place.

 

[Rubi]

Caught some of the Lions game,from what I saw Ebron looked "lost" on the field. I agree with,he may need a full year or so before he's worth anything fantasy wise.

 

[Faust]

Ebron, Van Noy see a lot of time in debuts

Excerpt:

Ebron has looked better during the second week of camp and has started to pick things up more. So nothing really surprised him, and the speed -- typically an issue for rookies -- didn’t bother him at all.

“It was everything you look forward to,” Ebron said. “It’s the NFL. Ain’t nothing else to look forward to but that.”

Ebron’s production was probably not what he would have liked -- one catch for two yards on four targets -- but he didn’t drop a pass and blocked when called upon as he played with both the first- and second-team offenses against the Browns.

Of the Lions’ rookies, Ebron's debut was the most anticipated and also among the shortest, as he played 26 offensive snaps.

 

[georg013]

SO which one was it? Was he lost or did he look good?

 

[Ilov80s]

SO which one was it? Was he lost or did he look good?

He looked like the 3rd string TE.

 

[menobrown]

SO which one was it? Was he lost or did he look good?

He looked lost to me but I thought the coach speak coming out of Detroit the past few weeks on why he looked lost looked legit, which was that he's getting moved all over and a ton thrown at him. He was lined up at FB, TE and multiple WR spots.

So the negative view would be he looked lost. The positive spin would be he looked lost because they have huge plans for him and he's got more to take in than your normal rookie TE, which is a difficult position to adapt to in even if you are not moved all over.

 

[TwinTurbo]

This guy had way too many drops in college and looked to be continuing with that garbage in camp. It would not surprise me if he struggled in year 1, much like Vernon Davis. He keeps getting hyped up comparisons to Jimmy Graham but I think his upside is more like Finley or Cook, as in he will not play up to his potential on paper. He's a move TE that can't catch. No thanks.

 

[georg013]

Read Twin Turbos assessment and cut bait.

 

[matuski]

SO which one was it? Was he lost or did he look good?

He wasn't winning with the ball in the air.

eta - preseason game 1.. take it as you will.

 

[cstu]

This guy had way too many drops in college and looked to be continuing with that garbage in camp. It would not surprise me if he struggled in year 1, much like Vernon Davis. He keeps getting hyped up comparisons to Jimmy Graham but I think his upside is more like Finley or Cook, as in he will not play up to his potential on paper. He's a move TE that can't catch. No thanks.

No one should have been expecting anything this year anyway. Long term, Vernon Davis with Stafford at QB sounds fine to me.

 

[jurb26]

This guy had way too many drops in college and looked to be continuing with that garbage in camp. It would not surprise me if he struggled in year 1, much like Vernon Davis. He keeps getting hyped up comparisons to Jimmy Graham but I think his upside is more like Finley or Cook, as in he will not play up to his potential on paper. He's a move TE that can't catch. No thanks.

No one should have been expecting anything this year anyway. Long term, Vernon Davis with Stafford at QB sounds fine to me.

This guy had way too many drops in college and looked to be continuing with that garbage in camp. It would not surprise me if he struggled in year 1, much like Vernon Davis. He keeps getting hyped up comparisons to Jimmy Graham but I think his upside is more like Finley or Cook, as in he will not play up to his potential on paper. He's a move TE that can't catch. No thanks.

No one should have been expecting anything this year anyway. Long term, Vernon Davis with Stafford at QB sounds fine to me.

Yeah, but he's V. Davis with less athleticism and worse hands.

 

[cstu]

Yeah, but he's V. Davis with less athleticism and worse hands.

He just turned 21 in April, be patient.

 

[menobrown]

Yeah, but he's V. Davis with less athleticism and worse hands.

He just turned 21 in April, be patient.

In a redraft I understand but a horrible move in a dynasty format to cut him.

He's also absolutely nothing like Vernon Davis, that's a terrible comp that needs to stop. He can't run as fast or jump as high as Vernon but what TE's can? But Vernon's not a really smooth route runner either. I believe I've said it in this thread a few times. From a size/workout numbers and play style angle the comp you need to think about with Ebron is Winslow Jr.

TE's take time, be patient in dynasty and at this time of the year never count on them in a redraft format.

 

[Hipple II]

This is what Eric Ebron looks like lined up with a CB

http://i.imgur.com/SfNbeNr.jpg

 

[Hu-Tang Clan]

This is what Eric Ebron looks like lined up with a CB

http://i.imgur.com/SfNbeNr.jpg

Great shot!