I could see back-end top 10. It doesn’t take a whole lot for a guy to be a top 8-10 TE any given season. 650 yards and 6-7 tds?
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TE Mason Taylor, NYJ (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter socrates
- Start date
I think he’s easily going to be the #2 option.Add that he is lower on the pecking order (not primary read / not second/ not likely 3rd ) ...I’d start with bad offense and bad QB.
top 5 isn't typically an insane number by any means... but rookie TEs don't typically sniff it regardless.
but hey, there's always a chancewhy can't it be him?
And I do think he can finish top 5 overall. Would not predict it but very possible. I do predict he’ll be top 10.
If anyone had said these things about Laporta it would have sounded nutty. But I think they have a similar play style and are connected by branches of the same coaching tree. Some things different of course but that’s a good start on a team with horrendous passing game options after Garrett and a QB who has shown high efficiency throwing to TE’s in his past.
I like him. And after really digging into him the past few weeks, I think I like him a lot.I think he’s easily going to be the #2 option.Add that he is lower on the pecking order (not primary read / not second/ not likely 3rd ) ...I’d start with bad offense and bad QB.
top 5 isn't typically an insane number by any means... but rookie TEs don't typically sniff it regardless.
but hey, there's always a chance
And I do think he can finish top 5 overall. Would not predict it but very possible. I do predict he’ll be top 10.
If anyone had said these things about Laporta it would have sounded nutty. But I think they have a similar play style and are connected by branches of the same coaching tree. Some things different of course but that’s a good start on a team with horrendous passing game options after Garrett and a QB who has shown high efficiency throwing to TE’s in his past.
I have 3.01 in a 1.5 TE Premium and I’m hoping he’ll make it to me there.
Good luck, it happened in some leagues I was not in but in my 7 TEP leagues the farthest he made it was 2.11 and I think he’s gained a little more hype since.I like him. And after really digging into him the past few weeks, I think I like him a lot.I think he’s easily going to be the #2 option.Add that he is lower on the pecking order (not primary read / not second/ not likely 3rd ) ...I’d start with bad offense and bad QB.
top 5 isn't typically an insane number by any means... but rookie TEs don't typically sniff it regardless.
but hey, there's always a chance
And I do think he can finish top 5 overall. Would not predict it but very possible. I do predict he’ll be top 10.
If anyone had said these things about Laporta it would have sounded nutty. But I think they have a similar play style and are connected by branches of the same coaching tree. Some things different of course but that’s a good start on a team with horrendous passing game options after Garrett and a QB who has shown high efficiency throwing to TE’s in his past.
I have 3.01 in a 1.5 TE Premium and I’m hoping he’ll make it to me there.
These are NOT SF leagues so maybe that will help.
I like Arroyo and Ferguson a lot as well but raw and/or opportunity keep me from viewing them as viable starting lineups options next year in a way I do Taylor. Long term not really any difference, just like Taylor so much because I expect immediate use and also possible massive rise in his trade value. Which I know is rare to be thinking of a rookie TE in those terms but if he does what I think he will do as young 21 year old in TEP his value will spike…..and it might be wise to cash in.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I like Mason ... I was strongly considering him at 2.09 but he went 2.04 to my surprise. I was so disappointed...
I just don't see the NYJ offense not involving the RB's in receiving schemes lowering Mason Taylor's target slice of the pie.
Of course GW should be fed often, but Justin Fields will be a different QB pattern.
Hard to predict his target share.
RB's Breece Hall & Braelon Allen had > 100 targets (17%)
Garrett get another 160 targets this year (26%)
Whoever wins WR2 (my $ is Josh Reynolds over Allen Lazard) will see about 80 targets (13%).
Now, Tyler Conklin did get >70 targets but only 4 games with more than 6 targets in 17 games is not Top 5 worthy.
Can we estimate 50 targets for the Rookie TE from LSU?
Good article from PFF
They estimate 15% Target share ...
I just don't see the NYJ offense not involving the RB's in receiving schemes lowering Mason Taylor's target slice of the pie.
Of course GW should be fed often, but Justin Fields will be a different QB pattern.
Hard to predict his target share.
RB's Breece Hall & Braelon Allen had > 100 targets (17%)
Garrett get another 160 targets this year (26%)
Whoever wins WR2 (my $ is Josh Reynolds over Allen Lazard) will see about 80 targets (13%).
Now, Tyler Conklin did get >70 targets but only 4 games with more than 6 targets in 17 games is not Top 5 worthy.
Can we estimate 50 targets for the Rookie TE from LSU?
Good article from PFF
They estimate 15% Target share ...
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Guessing his target share will be directly related to how well he's doing
I put it more in the 80-100 target range in a 17 game season, but more bullish on the higher number with the lower number more of what I consider the floor and I expect the efficiency to be really good.
If you take Fields last two seasons and prorate them out in games played with Kmet and Friermuth they would have both landed at 82 targets. This prorates 4.82 per game, TE17 on average. This is what I consider his floor zone.
If you look at Lions TE usage however under Ben Johnson, which I think it's ok to assume his protege will try and do similar things, that usage increased. In 19 games as passing game coordinator or OC Hockenson was at 6.63 targets a game. Rookie year Laporta was at 7.1, that dipped down to 5.1 last year but he had some health issues but that still puts him at 6.1 targets per game over duration of being in this system.
Now they won't pass as much as the Lions did but Taylor won't be dealing with that same kind of comp for targets either nor is the Breece and company rushing group nearly on par with Gibbs/Monty.
If you took every NFL teams #1 WR out I would strongly suggest the Jets trot out by far the worst receiving group in the NFL. Reynolds and Lazard would be battling to be most teams #4 or #5 WR, but I don't even think they make most rosters. In other words as bad as the #2 WR options were for Fields in Chicago and Pittsburgh, it's worse now.
Stat nugget for you: Per TruMedia, Fields ranks fifth among qualifying quarterbacks in percentage of targets to tight ends (24.7 percent) since 2021
Again I think he's the #2 option in the passing attack, a thought that's been echoed by some Jets beat writers. If I had to give one number for expected targets I'd double the 50 you provided, but again think low 80's is the floor.
steelcityman
Footballguy
He went 3.03 in my 1.5 TEP league, but that was a couple weeks ago, so IDK if his value/hype/ranking has gone up since then, maybe back end of RD2???I like him. And after really digging into him the past few weeks, I think I like him a lot.I think he’s easily going to be the #2 option.Add that he is lower on the pecking order (not primary read / not second/ not likely 3rd ) ...I’d start with bad offense and bad QB.
top 5 isn't typically an insane number by any means... but rookie TEs don't typically sniff it regardless.
but hey, there's always a chance
And I do think he can finish top 5 overall. Would not predict it but very possible. I do predict he’ll be top 10.
If anyone had said these things about Laporta it would have sounded nutty. But I think they have a similar play style and are connected by branches of the same coaching tree. Some things different of course but that’s a good start on a team with horrendous passing game options after Garrett and a QB who has shown high efficiency throwing to TE’s in his past.
I have 3.01 in a 1.5 TE Premium and I’m hoping he’ll make it to me there.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
He could be a top 5-10 tight end next season.
He could also be a 5-10 catches in total tight end next season.
That is the way of the rookie tight end.
He could also be a 5-10 catches in total tight end next season.
That is the way of the rookie tight end.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
another positive report, this time about his blocking. blurb from rotoworld. also interesting note about the playaction for TEs.
*******
Jets head coach Aaron Glenn said TE Mason Taylor is “doing an outstanding job” as a blocker.
Glenn previously complimented Taylor’s ability to catch the ball away from his body and the quickness with which he gets “north and south” after the catch. The new comments regarding Taylor’s development as a blocker are equally noteworthy. If Taylor can establish himself as his position group’s best run blocker, he will remain on the field for the high-value play-action passing plays. Among the tight end position’s 2,778 receptions recorded last year, 853 (30.7 percent) were caught via play-action targets. Taylor could have a fantasy impact in year one if he can earn a full-time role in the Jets’ offense this summer.
*******
Jets head coach Aaron Glenn said TE Mason Taylor is “doing an outstanding job” as a blocker.
Glenn previously complimented Taylor’s ability to catch the ball away from his body and the quickness with which he gets “north and south” after the catch. The new comments regarding Taylor’s development as a blocker are equally noteworthy. If Taylor can establish himself as his position group’s best run blocker, he will remain on the field for the high-value play-action passing plays. Among the tight end position’s 2,778 receptions recorded last year, 853 (30.7 percent) were caught via play-action targets. Taylor could have a fantasy impact in year one if he can earn a full-time role in the Jets’ offense this summer.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
New York Jets tight end Mason Taylor has been the clear starter during training camp, according to Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic. The second-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft out of LSU already finds himself above veterans Jeremy Ruckert and Stone Smartt early in his first offseason, and star wideout teammate Garrett Wilson has taken notice. "He's got great hands, he finds a way to be open when he needs to be," Wilson said. "I think he's got a bright future ahead of him. He's really going to help us this year. He came in ready."
Terpman22
Footballguy
This tight end class seems like its ready to rock
Instinctive
Footballguy
So can he be the #2 target getter on the Jets? If so, that's a real path to relevance, although maybe Fields-limited. But he needs a path to 100+ targets and may actually have one.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
You watch his tape and it almost seems boring because he is just so solid in all aspects. Not a monster after the catch, but at 20 years old he comes into the league with a solid all-around baseline of skills that should translate immediately to production. Seems to have a great mindset with his NFL bloodlines and I would not be shocked if we look back in a few years and ends up being the best of the bunch in this class.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Fields has actually been pretty good for his TE’s production.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Thats not my first thought. Do you have any evidence? Kmet has never been a top TE. Friermuth wasnt one last year.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Wasn't Kmet's best season, Fields' last year in Chicago, where Kmet finished TE7?
Frieirmuth is a JAG+ for FF IMO
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
2023 was Kmet’s best year - 90 targets from fields, 73/719/6
Friermouth also just had his best season but that’s a weird example to use because fields didn’t start all year, and the OC didn’t exactly have Fields throwing early and often.
But there’s definitely evidence to support Fields being a net positive for TE production.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Exactly.
Terpman22
Footballguy
In Fields rookie year also, Kmet finished as TE12,
Other than his rookie year, the first year (last year) without Fields throwing him the ball, he had his worst year.
Instinctive
Footballguy
So Fields' best passing season led to only 90 targets for the TE and a TE7 finish in a year that had depressed TE production. Kinda my point.
We may just have different definitions of good. If you have TE7 in most leagues, that means you have a below average TE. A losing player in your lineup. I wouldn't say that's good for production, but that's just me. I would say he was totally fine. Now if you're starting two TEs or even flexing them in a TEP, then he moves up to useful, but still not exactly "pretty good."
Freiermuth cracked 50 yards once with Fields, and scored 2 TDs. It may have been his best season (talk about low bars) but the games that mattered in it were all Wilson games. Idk how a weird example it is to say "every TE he's had has been between mediocre and bad, and he's never had one turn out to be good in fantasy."
I don't think anything you posted is evidence of Fields being a net positive for TE production.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
He had 73/719/6 in 2023 with Fields and the Bears with a 23% production share and 17% target share. In TE premium leagues that was 218 FF points and good for TE7 that year.
Training camp reports don't always translate to the season but this guy is my most owned player right now and these reports of his play are outstanding to hear.
And fwiw I feel great about this translating, health provided, but of course I'd feel that way since I've drafted him more then anyone other player.
He's just a polished NFL ready fairly high pedigreed player in an offense were Josh Reynolds has run away with the #2 WR job.
And fwiw I feel great about this translating, health provided, but of course I'd feel that way since I've drafted him more then anyone other player.
He's just a polished NFL ready fairly high pedigreed player in an offense were Josh Reynolds has run away with the #2 WR job.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yes HFS TE7 isn't good to you and indicative of Fields ability to involve the TE then yes you're working with a different definition of good.
Plus you pretty much have to presume Taylor>>>>Kmet so yeah I'd say a path to 100+ targets is more than viable.
Instinctive
Footballguy
It looks like in 2023 he targeted TEs 23% of his throws.
It looks like the NFL targeted TEs on 20% of all passes last year. Fields threw 161. It looks like 32 went to TEs. I think that's 19.9%, or pretty much exactly the NFL average for last season.
It doesn't look like Fields TEs have a higher Y/Tgt or a higher TD% (in fact, they seem to have a lower TD%), so at BEST, I think you could say "Fields may be a net neutral for TEs, he's right about the NFL average in their usage."
It looks like the NFL targeted TEs on 20% of all passes last year. Fields threw 161. It looks like 32 went to TEs. I think that's 19.9%, or pretty much exactly the NFL average for last season.
It doesn't look like Fields TEs have a higher Y/Tgt or a higher TD% (in fact, they seem to have a lower TD%), so at BEST, I think you could say "Fields may be a net neutral for TEs, he's right about the NFL average in their usage."
Instinctive
Footballguy
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I just generally don't think "below average" and "good" are the same.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
All due respect but this isn’t a logical approach to discussion.
You challenged me to prove that Fields was good for TE production.
I did. You now dismiss TE7 production of 73/718/6 as somehow being subpar and proving your point? Sorry friend, it proved you wrong.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agree completely.
Instinctive
Footballguy
That's fine. We can agree to disagree. I posted Fields' target % to TEs, and checked his TD% and YPT to the position vs the NFL average. He's exactly average.
I'm not here to win internet points or feel smart. I'm here for good faith discussion and learning. Hope you are too. Doesn't feel that way right now, as an FYI.
If this season Mason Taylor has 73/700/7, it won't have helped me win a single league. If you told me he would right now, and I could wait until the 14th round to take him and not waste any picks on TEs before then, it's still not really that helpful. Do you think it would be? You gain what, a backup flex spot in most leagues vs where you'd take a TE typically int he bottom half of the top 12.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s not about winning internet points or feeling smart, it’s about not moving the goalposts when you’re trying to make a point. That’s the opposite of that “good faith” you’re talking about.
I will not “agree to disagree” that Fields made Kmet the TE12 then TE7. That’s just facts.
Enjoy your day.
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greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
There’s definitely a concern that even if Fields targets TE at a fine rate, the overall passing volume puts a cap on just how good Taylor can be at winning fantasy football games for you.
I’m not as convinced about the harm of TE 7 or whatever if you think you get a great price on a WR2 that you’re flexing.
I’m pretty happy so far in dynasty with my shares.
He seems to have an overall talent profile that bodes well, and seems to be showing up especially for the late 2nd prices.
I’m not as convinced about the harm of TE 7 or whatever if you think you get a great price on a WR2 that you’re flexing.
I’m pretty happy so far in dynasty with my shares.
He seems to have an overall talent profile that bodes well, and seems to be showing up especially for the late 2nd prices.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
At ADP he’s definitely a guy I’m targeting in a start-up TEP league I’m drafting now.
Startup SF ADP 132, a range of 123-137
That’s 11.12 - happy to gamble on him at that price.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Just so we are clear - those are facts. I disagree that they are evidence that Fields is a net positive for TE production. At BEST, they are evidence that he is a net neutral.
If we're gonna "move the goalposts" for me, let's allow me to move them back please. That's why I made the good faith comment.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ok, assuming all good faith on both of our parts then, please explain to me how targeting a TE 90 times and making that TE a top 7 fantasy asset at the position is not “good for TE production”.
That was my assertion that you challenged.
Because it sure seems like a QB that’s good for TE production to me.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Because context matters:
- He didn't have a particularly outsized target share at 23% (and Fields has never targeted even the aggregate TE corps that often in any other season)
- It was a down year for TE production (it would have barely been TE10 in 2024, 2022, and 2021 seasons based on what I can find - that's another reason "he was TE7 one year" isn't super useful on its own
- He didn't have an above average TD%
- He didn't have an above average reception % per target (which would matter in PPR leagues)
- He only had 90 total targets - this implied Fields held the offense back on the whole, without much volume, so 23% of that pie still only led to middling production
- Over his career, Fields targets the TE at exactly the league average rate. And he has below average TD%, below average YPA, below average attempts per game, and above average INT% (a bad thing).
I think you're confusing "the TE had a solid season" with "the QB was good for his production." I'd argue given the lack of other receiving options in Chicago, that Fields probably held Kmet back.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d counter that by pointing out that a 23% target share is very solid for a TE on a team with DJM & Darnell Mooney, and that type of production is actually pretty excellent for a QB mostly known for his rushing ability.
It shows a concerted effort to get the ball to the Tight End, especially when talking about a QB who only threw 370x for 2562 yards.
That means Kmet’s production accounted for28% of Fields passing yardage & 37.5% of Fields TDs.
That, to me, is a much stronger data set than overall target share & clearly supports the contention that Fields is good for TE production.
Instinctive
Footballguy
You want to make a bet on it of some kind for this year? I'm happy to put his career against a single outlier season that I think still wasn't that good.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not one retort to my data-driven commentary?
Challenging me to a bet over it officially ends my participation in what was a somewhat interesting discussion.
The fact is that I’ve already won the bet: Fields was, in fact, “good for TE production”. You acknowledged that yourself. He helped a TE to a 12th, then 7th finish at the position.
There it is. Fields has been good for TE production.
Again, I wish you a very good evening.
Instinctive
Footballguy
smh
There's a deeper problem here that you're missing. Which is, if you put any competent NFL QB in that offense that year, Kmet does better, IMO. It's tiresome because your "data driven commentary" doesn't address any argument I made (and is a misnomer - it contains data, but I wouldnt describe it as data driven), and fails to understand cause and effect or acknowledge the counterfactual. You just want to be right. It's not adding to the discussion it's trying to prove a point without any critical thinking.
If we're just going to put words in my mouth, I'll take the complete and total lack of conviction as a clear admission that youre just trolling, like often here, not in good faith, and you dont believe your own arguments enough to put anything behind them (see? how does it feel when someone intentionally says what you said knowing full well thats not what you said or meant? Be better). Since I haven't acknowledged in any way that Fields was good for TE production. I think, just to make sure, I have repeatedly said he was at BEST a net neutral.
28% of yards and 37.5% of TDs do more to show that Kmet was among the best of a very poor receiving corps, not that Fields has any proclivity to throw to a TE. In fact, whenever there have been good receivers, theyve gotten the ball over TEs (especially since if you remove 2023, the outlier season i Fields' passing career, he targets the TE FAR below league average rates).
Let's look at Mooney - an average to below average receiver with one outlier season to his name.
Target shares:
2020: 24% target share as a rookie (Allen Robinson had 38% and rookie Kmet 13%...talk about an awful receiving corps)
2021: 26% target share as Robinson gets hurt (in their shared healthy games, he's below his rookie season 24%, but overall had an excellent sophomore season)
2022: 16% target share (but closer to 20% when healthy, he only played 12 games)
2023: 13% (again closer to 20% when healthy - interestingly, in games they both play, Kmet's share drops below 20% - seems useful if this is the "wow Fields loves the TE so much" season)
2024: 20% again
In fact, if we look at 2023 game logs and Bears receiving corps injuries for Fields, if anything it shows Kmet was a huge injury beneficiary. Kmet that year produced an average catch rate among top 20 TEs in yardage. He produced an average TD%. he produced slightly above average yards/target but below average yards/reception (odd). He got some volume because there was nobody else to throw to. If Fields didn't suck so bad that the offense sucked, Kmet probably produces more! He was basically last man standing as Mooney got hurt, 2 games of Claypool, Moore got 50% more targets (can only throw so many times to the same guy, and I'll give you a big thumbs up if you can tell me which of these 2023 Bears receivers I made up: Trent Taylor, Tyler Scott, Travis Adams, Velus Jones, Collin Johnson.
Good evening indeed. Fields has been horrible for TE production. Kmet had a gold mine of a situation that shook out perfectly to get him 120+ targets, 1000 yards, and double digit TDs and he delivered meh. 700 yards on 90 targets.
You're welcome to respond with the last word. I think it's safe to say my opinion is thus, and needs no further elucidation:
1. I'm glad I was forced to look deeper, I learned a lot by asking the question
2. Fields is at best a net neutral, and likely a net negative, for TE production because he doesn't target them more than other QBs, his targets are less valuable, and his offenses have fewer targets to go around
3. The Jets receivers outside Wilson may be just as bad as the 2023 Bears, so Taylor could produce anyway out of sheer "someone has to catch it" - but I don't think that production will lead any fantasy teams to wins
4. I don't think you have a very analytical mind for this, and that's ok. People provide value in other ways, and the world is better for it
5. I'm excited we are in at least one league together. Going to enjoy it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
wow. All this because you can’t admit you were wrong. That’s just sad. But hey, some people resort to ad hominem, and that’s ok.
Damn, that is total domination. Any reply will be laughable.
As I predictedwow. All this because you can’t admit you were wrong. That’s just sad. But hey, some people resort to ad hominem, and that’s ok.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
HSG I'm usually on your side for most things but I don't think a 7th and 12th overall season qualifies as "good for" the TE position. Quite frankly, most years there were 2-3 elite te and the field. I haven't checked, but I would put money on one of those two years a guy like Taysom Hill finished higher.
Also, can we really say anything outside the fact that for a few seasons Kmet was utilized more in the offense with that information? He's not an elite player, and it makes sense that the CHI has faded him from the gameplan. I can see the argument that Fields is a first read and run QB, and that means his first read will be something short to the TE in more plays than an average QB, which could explain the rise in targets from Kmet. Unfortunately, The fact is that the evidence says Fields overall career targets TE at league avg or lesser (instinctive's posts have the actual numbers) shows how he actually impacts the position. One highlight season seems to be the outlier.
So what exactly qualifies as him being good for a te? Two seasons of mid TE1 production? One of which is 12th overall, and you could probably do better streaming TE than riding with him every week. There's more evidence that the lack of a secondary target on the Jets boosts Taylor's overall targets.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I’m trying to follow along and all but
Maybe I’m crazy but a lot of separate arguments are happening at the same time
“QB good for the tight end” means….the tight end MUST produce at an elite level?
Like “Top 2-3 or bust”
Seems like an insane premise.
And the fact Cole Kmet produced TE7/TE12 seasons with a guy that has a career high of 17 TD passes, a rookie comes in, has 20, yet it’s also the worst stat season of Kmet since his rookie year, and they “phased him out” or something - does not that STRENGHTHEN the argument that Justin Fields is good for the position, since you’re saying “he’s not an elite player”
And us/we in the Mason Taylor thread are all in agreement this guy is a better prospect than Cole Kmet, right?
So Justin Fields makes “not elite” guys TE1s 2x, somehow we are to believe he’ll be “bad” for a guy who we all agree is a superior prospect?
Help me understand.
Is it TE1/2/3 and everyone else is “trash”?
I’m sure you’re not playing in 6-8 team league where TE6-12 don’t matter at all?
Trying to understand is all.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I gave the % of Fields overall production.
Being “good” IMO is being a startable FF TE.
I didn’t say he was great. I didn’t say he made Kmet a star. I said there was evidence of Fields supporting a FF TE. Certainly more so than many other FF QBs.
If someone chooses to define “good for TE” as other than a top 12 starting option (which is my basic criteria here) then we have no common ground on which to have a discussion. I believe Fields will do enough to sustain their rookie TE as a FF starting option. I’m not saying he’ll be as good as McBride or Bowers or even LaPorta. But I said I think his startup ADP is fair, and base that on Fields’ history.
The definition of “good” is clearly the moving goal post and bad faith discussion. That bad faith was subsequently cemented by first challenging me to a bet, and then finally resorting to multiple personal attacks.
I’m out of this discussion. The user is now on ignore.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Last year the difference in points between the 6th overall te and the 12th was 30ish points. The difference between 3rd and 6th is 50ish.
Like I had said... You're talking about a group where you can score more playing matchups than riding with one guy.
Edit - just realized the number was 7th overall, but I think this makes my point clearer.
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