If anyone thinks this situation in Minnesota will be worse for Hockenson than in Detroit, you haven’t been watching his usage in Detroit. He’ll have tons of space to work with Jefferson drawing all the attention.
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TE T.J. Hockenson, MIN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Great trade by Detroit. Hockenson has never lived up to his draft position, and getting 2 day 2 picks of him, after 3.5 years is a nice return. He likely wasn;t going to be higher than the #3 option long term for the Lions anyway behind St. Brown and Williams.
In Minnesota, this sounds like a slight overpay to me, as Hockenson is only slightly better than Smith in my opinion, though with Smith hurt again, I don't have a problem with them going all-in so to speak. I'll be curious if this leads to more 2-TE sets once Smith is healthy, as that is probably their best personnel now.
Fantasy wise, this feels like a slight downgrade. Probably went to a better offense, but one with more competition for targets, at least right now anyway. Next year Thielen could be gone, and Williams would be there in Detroit. So maybe downgrade in redraft, and upgrade in dynasty?
In Minnesota, this sounds like a slight overpay to me, as Hockenson is only slightly better than Smith in my opinion, though with Smith hurt again, I don't have a problem with them going all-in so to speak. I'll be curious if this leads to more 2-TE sets once Smith is healthy, as that is probably their best personnel now.
Fantasy wise, this feels like a slight downgrade. Probably went to a better offense, but one with more competition for targets, at least right now anyway. Next year Thielen could be gone, and Williams would be there in Detroit. So maybe downgrade in redraft, and upgrade in dynasty?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Currently he's #2 in targets, but again - Swift has missed all but 2 games this year. and ARSB missed basically 2 games as well. Josh Reynolds has just 1 less target than Hock. So technically, literally, yes - he's been one of their top targets. But practically, that doesn't really mean much.
If the Lions had been healthy this year (and they're currently more healthy than they've been with Swift & ARSB back) he'd be more like the 3-4 target moving forward. But since the Lions are in sell mode, who knows what else they're going to do.
I think this move is a lateral at worst, and an upgrade at best. Coaches love new toys, and Hock is weapon.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Exactly. And IMO Cousins has been needing that mid-level target all year. Hock will be a check-down option, and will help MIN move the chains when JJ & Thielen aren't open. I think Hock's targets and especially RZ usage goes way up in MIN.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Just a few weeks ago he went 8/12 for 179/2 with an 81 yard TD.
How has he not lived up to his draft position?
I meant for the Lions, as a top-10 overall pick.Just a few weeks ago he went 8/12 for 179/2 with an 81 yard TD.
How has he not lived up to his draft position?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree as a worst case scenario. It could be a lateral.
Except Minny has been talking about needing a RZ threat at TE since the Kyle Rudolph days. IMO he may not get more quantity of targets (though I suspect he'll dominate intermediate looks) but if the quality of RZ/GZ targets increases, his value will bump up.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I understand that. I'm not sure he's to blame for where they picked him, or how they've used him, but injury aside he's certainly shown the talent to justify it.I meant for the Lions, as a top-10 overall pick.Just a few weeks ago he went 8/12 for 179/2 with an 81 yard TD.
How has he not lived up to his draft position?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I remember - I commented on it at the time that it was super weird. lol
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Who's the Move TE in DET?
Brock Wright? Anything to see here? He's a big boy - 6'5", 255
Brock Wright? Anything to see here? He's a big boy - 6'5", 255
Dickies
Footballguy
The move is to not carry any DET TEs on your fantasy teams.
I'm not blaming him for where they picked him, I'm saying I don't think he's THAT talented. He's not a great player in a bad situation in my opinion, he's a solid player in an average one. He had a great game a month ago, but he isn't some physical mismatch, and or YAC monster. He's a Heath Miller jack of all trades type to me, which is nice, and will occasionally pop off, but is probably rightly cast as a #3 option in a passing game.I understand that. I'm not sure he's to blame for where they picked him, or how they've used him, but injury aside he's certainly shown the talent to justify it.I meant for the Lions, as a top-10 overall pick.Just a few weeks ago he went 8/12 for 179/2 with an 81 yard TD.
How has he not lived up to his draft position?
Its certainly possible this is a Greg Olsen situation, and Hockenson is a top-5 TE going forward, but Olsen seemed like a greater talent than Hockenson has and was just a horrible fit for a Mike Martz (what are TE's?) offense.
If the expectations are Kyle Rudolph 8-10 years ago, I think they'll be happy. If the expectations are top-10 pick that just needs to be unlocked, I think they are unlikely to be met.
The winner in Detroit is probably likely NFL target leader going forward Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Brock Wright will likely start, but he's not on Hockenson's level. Probably a pray for a TD type, which to be fair, is on par with like 1/3rd of the starting TE's in the league.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I would be surprised if this wasn't a slight upgrade for Hockenson based on a team trading for him.
IMO a team doesn't trade for you to not used you.
IMO a team doesn't trade for you to not used you.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don't see that as a particularly good idea considering they play from behind a lot, and Goff does like to target the TE.
Hock's 44+ point game earlier this year says hi.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well said.
Couldn’t be much worse than it was in Detroit with Swift and ARSB getting healthy and WR Williams looming. Thielen is getting older, Irv is injured (and a FA), Jefferson demands coverage and Minn is a much more consistent passing offense.
Got to figure they will let Irv walk now.
Got to figure they will let Irv walk now.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Just a few weeks ago he went 8/12 for 179/2 with an 81 yard TD.
How has he not lived up to his draft position?
Believe it he has not. Hock will never be a Kelce, Kittle, and he is not as reliable as Andrews, Hock is in the 6-12 range of TEs, and he has not been a good blocker.
Bottom line is the Lions were not going to extend Hock a 5th year option and pay him top dollar.
Can he help a team now? Yes. Would I give him top 5 TE money? No
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He sure could be on a better team though.
He absolutely creates mismatches with LBs and smaller DBs.
Imagine Hock on the 49ers instead of Kittle. Dude is a beast. I don't see how you can say he doesn't create physical mismatches. Dude's a monster and faster than he should be for his size.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Game before that Hock had 6 yards, 3 games after 18, 26, 36, yards.
More than half his receptions and yards came in one game. The 80 yarder was a blown coverage, but he will help Minny this season.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
You're basically blaming Hockenson for being on the Lions & drawing inference that he isn't good because he's on a bad team with a mediocre QB.
Not sure that's the most logical approach here.
I don't think he's even close to the talent Kittle is, in any way.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That's not what I said. I never compared him to Kittle.
I said if you put him in that situation he'd be a monster.
Those are very different things.
I don't think Kittle's situation is all that different than Hockenson's was. Kittle is just a physical freak of nature and makes it work.
We clearly have very different opinions of Hockenson's talent level. On an A-F scale I think he's a C. Solid player, but not a difference maker. Which is worth a late 2nd rounder to a contender.
He really isn't - he doesn't create separation in his routes, has only OK hands, and mostly just falls down after he catches the ball. I can't remember the last time that he caught a ball that travelled more than 15 yards in the air.
He's also a poor blocker, so he's got that going for him.
Maybe Minnesota unlocks him, but he's had plenty of opportunity in Detroit to show that he's something special without a lot of other competition for targets in the last year and a half, and hasn't impressed.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
You don't think the Bears offensive scheme & run-heavy QB is different than Shanahan's "YAC friendly" scheme and statue of a QB?
I'm not picking up what you're putting down here.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
I stated he will help Minny as he is above average pass catcher. Hock is not a good blocker at all like Kelce and Kittle can be when needed.
I watch every Lions game. Hock has good hands, but does not get good separation for his size.
Bottom line is Hock will be a FA after the season and rumor has it that he wants a contract comparable to Kelce and Kittle, Lions had no interest in paying that much. I think his 5th year option is 10 million, not sure how that works now that he was traded.
And yes the Lions are a bad team and a bad organization.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
they already exercised his 5th year option this spring
Hock will not be a free agent, 5th year option goes with him. MINN would have to cut him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The Vikings did not, and I cannot stress this enough, trade for Hockenson to be a blocker.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I certainly hope not.
Oh, it has to be an improvement for him. But if you're expecting him to suddenly become a Kelce or Kittle with a change in scenery, I think you're going to be disappointed.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
OK, then I think I heard he gets 9 or 10 million if option gets picked up.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Yep, just looked. 5th year is 9.2 million. That will open up more cap room.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don't see anyone saying they expect this.
He was a top 6 TE. Some have opined he could be top 5 now. That seems like a modest expectation.
Personally I could see top 4, especially if Andrews continues to struggle with injuries. And I do believe he's going to IMMEDIATELY be the Vikings #2 red zone target behind Thielen. They've been desperate for that for years.
Crossing routes to KJO are risky and low % plays. JJ is amazing, but he's not their best RZ option. Hock is built for the end zone. I could absolutely see similar yardage/receptions with a bump in TDs.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Probably something for everyone, the Vikes included, to worry about when that time comes.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Lion are going nowhere with or without Hock, Vikings will make the playoffs so he will help then more than Detroit.
Lions are a mess!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Exactly.
But that said, the Lions are in a great position to replace Goff next year, and have a nice core of young talent to build around. I think they're doing what they need to do considering. They probably should have done it a month ago, but then, Irv wasn't out for the year a month ago.
This is something we 100% agree on.
One thing I have been thinking about, and perhaps I was being too hard on TJ, is what if he, not instantly, but in a few weeks, moves ahead of Thielen in the pecking order. If that happens top-3 is totally on the table, but that may be unrealistic with Cousins/Thielen chemistry.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Dan Campbell, a former Tight End himself before he became Head Coach of the Lions, you're telling everyone he doesn't know how to use a TE in his offense?
The guy worked under Sean Payton for years in New Orleans prior to Detroit
Hock now gets the great Kirk Cousins to throw him passes, you say immediate uptick and Top 5 the rest of the way?
If I say it like that, could you believe people pause for a minute and think about it?
You do say it with conviction though, I want to believe you.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Four years in the league
Two (2) 100 yard games
His NFL debut game (2019)
6-131-1
Broke a nearly 60 year record for most yards receiving by a TE in their first game
#2 was WK4 this year (53rd game of his career)
8-179-2
Two (2) 100 yard games
His NFL debut game (2019)
6-131-1
Broke a nearly 60 year record for most yards receiving by a TE in their first game
#2 was WK4 this year (53rd game of his career)
8-179-2
You think he was used properly? He absolutely can be top 5 the rest of the way. He is going to have the middle of the field wide open. Defenses have to key on Cook, JJ and Adam. Now, I will say he there are more mouths to feed....that could hold him back, but as somebody already mentioned....Vikings didn't bring him there to block.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Campbell should still be working under a HC somehwere.
So those 2 games Hockenson had 14-308-3.
The other 45 games he had 172-1760-11. Pretty underwhelming.
