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TE Tyler Warren, IND (3 Viewers)

It's Warren and Loveland for me. Not a deep TE class IMO.
I have Fannin number one - followed by Warren and Loveland.

Tell me more about Fannin...I have not seen him play this year...his stats this year are impressive...I see him listed at 230...will that be an issue?

I'm a PSU fan and they played Bowling Green this year. Fannin had the best game of any opposing player all year. The one thing I remember is him being very tough to tackle, which after PSU's performance vs Jeanty is really saying something. He was a problem.

Bowling Green was winning at halftime largely because of Fannin. He and Warren are both great players but very different playstyles. I'm hoping Fannin goes under the radar a bit so I can scoop him late in dynasty.
He won’t, he’s too good.

Tex
Do you think he will be more productive than Kyle Pitts?
He outperformed Pitts at the collegiate level when comparing the numbers. Pitts had a great rookie season but fell off but we need to see more to try and answer your question properly.

He looks the part but I’m just starting to dig into his numbers.

Tex
The thing with Pitts wasn't so much about his production in college, although he did have nice numbers his senior year (43 for 770 and 12)

What made him an exciting prospect was more about his elite size, speed and potential. He looked like he could be Calvin Johnson playing TE, a potential mismatch nightmare for NFL defenses. Unfortunately something just never clicked for him at the NFL level, and looking back, he was extremely raw for a guy that wound up going #4 in the draft.

Warren looks like a much safer prospect at TE. He's not Kyle Pitts, but he's not Brock Bowers either. He's more of a prototypical TE that should excel at the next level. He's going to go very high in this draft.

ETA - Fannin was an elite receiver this year. Teams knew what was coming and they still couldn't stop him. Good teams, bad teams, elite defenses, it did not matter. His weight might be a problem as a traditional TE in the NFL. I believe his combine testing will be very important to his draft stock because I'm not sure how effective he is/will be as a blocker. He was used a lot out wide and in the slot this season and could not be stopped by anyone. He does play much faster than his reported 40 time. This might be a lazy comparison, but he looks like an upgraded version of Isaiah Likely to me. He's a very interesting prospect.

Why is that a lazy comparasion…I think it makes a ton of sense.
Maybe not lazy, but obvious. Sometimes that feels lazy.
 
It's Warren and Loveland for me. Not a deep TE class IMO.
I have Fannin number one - followed by Warren and Loveland.

Tell me more about Fannin...I have not seen him play this year...his stats this year are impressive...I see him listed at 230...will that be an issue?

I'm a PSU fan and they played Bowling Green this year. Fannin had the best game of any opposing player all year. The one thing I remember is him being very tough to tackle, which after PSU's performance vs Jeanty is really saying something. He was a problem.

Bowling Green was winning at halftime largely because of Fannin. He and Warren are both great players but very different playstyles. I'm hoping Fannin goes under the radar a bit so I can scoop him late in dynasty.
He won’t, he’s too good.

Tex
Do you think he will be more productive than Kyle Pitts?
He outperformed Pitts at the collegiate level when comparing the numbers. Pitts had a great rookie season but fell off but we need to see more to try and answer your question properly.

He looks the part but I’m just starting to dig into his numbers.

Tex
The thing with Pitts wasn't so much about his production in college, although he did have nice numbers his senior year (43 for 770 and 12)

What made him an exciting prospect was more about his elite size, speed and potential. He looked like he could be Calvin Johnson playing TE, a potential mismatch nightmare for NFL defenses. Unfortunately something just never clicked for him at the NFL level, and looking back, he was extremely raw for a guy that wound up going #4 in the draft.

Warren looks like a much safer prospect at TE. He's not Kyle Pitts, but he's not Brock Bowers either. He's more of a prototypical TE that should excel at the next level. He's going to go very high in this draft.

ETA - Fannin was an elite receiver this year. Teams knew what was coming and they still couldn't stop him. Good teams, bad teams, elite defenses, it did not matter. His weight might be a problem as a traditional TE in the NFL. I believe his combine testing will be very important to his draft stock because I'm not sure how effective he is/will be as a blocker. He was used a lot out wide and in the slot this season and could not be stopped by anyone. He does play much faster than his reported 40 time. This might be a lazy comparison, but he looks like an upgraded version of Isaiah Likely to me. He's a very interesting prospect.

I can see the Eagles taking a shot on Fannin in the 2nd round. They need a Goedert replacement.
If he's available. If he runs faster than what he's tested at in the past, he's a 1st round pick all day. He's a very smart receiver with great hands. He could be a tremendous weapon in the NFL. I could see the Broncos taking a chance on him in the 1st if he's still there.
 
It's Warren and Loveland for me. Not a deep TE class IMO.
I have Fannin number one - followed by Warren and Loveland.

Tell me more about Fannin...I have not seen him play this year...his stats this year are impressive...I see him listed at 230...will that be an issue?

I'm a PSU fan and they played Bowling Green this year. Fannin had the best game of any opposing player all year. The one thing I remember is him being very tough to tackle, which after PSU's performance vs Jeanty is really saying something. He was a problem.

Bowling Green was winning at halftime largely because of Fannin. He and Warren are both great players but very different playstyles. I'm hoping Fannin goes under the radar a bit so I can scoop him late in dynasty.
He won’t, he’s too good.

Tex
Do you think he will be more productive than Kyle Pitts?
He outperformed Pitts at the collegiate level when comparing the numbers. Pitts had a great rookie season but fell off but we need to see more to try and answer your question properly.

He looks the part but I’m just starting to dig into his numbers.

Tex
The thing with Pitts wasn't so much about his production in college, although he did have nice numbers his senior year (43 for 770 and 12)

What made him an exciting prospect was more about his elite size, speed and potential. He looked like he could be Calvin Johnson playing TE, a potential mismatch nightmare for NFL defenses. Unfortunately something just never clicked for him at the NFL level, and looking back, he was extremely raw for a guy that wound up going #4 in the draft.

Warren looks like a much safer prospect at TE. He's not Kyle Pitts, but he's not Brock Bowers either. He's more of a prototypical TE that should excel at the next level. He's going to go very high in this draft.

ETA - Fannin was an elite receiver this year. Teams knew what was coming and they still couldn't stop him. Good teams, bad teams, elite defenses, it did not matter. His weight might be a problem as a traditional TE in the NFL. I believe his combine testing will be very important to his draft stock because I'm not sure how effective he is/will be as a blocker. He was used a lot out wide and in the slot this season and could not be stopped by anyone. He does play much faster than his reported 40 time. This might be a lazy comparison, but he looks like an upgraded version of Isaiah Likely to me. He's a very interesting prospect.

I can see the Eagles taking a shot on Fannin in the 2nd round. They need a Goedert replacement.
If he's available. If he runs faster than what he's tested at in the past, he's a 1st round pick all day. He's a very smart receiver with great hands. He could be a tremendous weapon in the NFL. I could see the Broncos taking a chance on him in the 1st if he's still there.

He's the #3 TE on the board. Have 3 TEs ever been taken in the 1st round?
 
It's Warren and Loveland for me. Not a deep TE class IMO.
I have Fannin number one - followed by Warren and Loveland.

Tell me more about Fannin...I have not seen him play this year...his stats this year are impressive...I see him listed at 230...will that be an issue?

I'm a PSU fan and they played Bowling Green this year. Fannin had the best game of any opposing player all year. The one thing I remember is him being very tough to tackle, which after PSU's performance vs Jeanty is really saying something. He was a problem.

Bowling Green was winning at halftime largely because of Fannin. He and Warren are both great players but very different playstyles. I'm hoping Fannin goes under the radar a bit so I can scoop him late in dynasty.
He won’t, he’s too good.

Tex
Do you think he will be more productive than Kyle Pitts?
He outperformed Pitts at the collegiate level when comparing the numbers. Pitts had a great rookie season but fell off but we need to see more to try and answer your question properly.

He looks the part but I’m just starting to dig into his numbers.

Tex
The thing with Pitts wasn't so much about his production in college, although he did have nice numbers his senior year (43 for 770 and 12)

What made him an exciting prospect was more about his elite size, speed and potential. He looked like he could be Calvin Johnson playing TE, a potential mismatch nightmare for NFL defenses. Unfortunately something just never clicked for him at the NFL level, and looking back, he was extremely raw for a guy that wound up going #4 in the draft.

Warren looks like a much safer prospect at TE. He's not Kyle Pitts, but he's not Brock Bowers either. He's more of a prototypical TE that should excel at the next level. He's going to go very high in this draft.

ETA - Fannin was an elite receiver this year. Teams knew what was coming and they still couldn't stop him. Good teams, bad teams, elite defenses, it did not matter. His weight might be a problem as a traditional TE in the NFL. I believe his combine testing will be very important to his draft stock because I'm not sure how effective he is/will be as a blocker. He was used a lot out wide and in the slot this season and could not be stopped by anyone. He does play much faster than his reported 40 time. This might be a lazy comparison, but he looks like an upgraded version of Isaiah Likely to me. He's a very interesting prospect.

I can see the Eagles taking a shot on Fannin in the 2nd round. They need a Goedert replacement.
If he's available. If he runs faster than what he's tested at in the past, he's a 1st round pick all day. He's a very smart receiver with great hands. He could be a tremendous weapon in the NFL. I could see the Broncos taking a chance on him in the 1st if he's still there.

He's the #3 TE on the board. Have 3 TEs ever been taken in the 1st round?
2017. Engram, Njoku and OJ Howard.

May not be the only one, just only one I remember.
 
It's Warren and Loveland for me. Not a deep TE class IMO.
I have Fannin number one - followed by Warren and Loveland.

Tell me more about Fannin...I have not seen him play this year...his stats this year are impressive...I see him listed at 230...will that be an issue?

I'm a PSU fan and they played Bowling Green this year. Fannin had the best game of any opposing player all year. The one thing I remember is him being very tough to tackle, which after PSU's performance vs Jeanty is really saying something. He was a problem.

Bowling Green was winning at halftime largely because of Fannin. He and Warren are both great players but very different playstyles. I'm hoping Fannin goes under the radar a bit so I can scoop him late in dynasty.
He won’t, he’s too good.

Tex
Do you think he will be more productive than Kyle Pitts?
He outperformed Pitts at the collegiate level when comparing the numbers. Pitts had a great rookie season but fell off but we need to see more to try and answer your question properly.

He looks the part but I’m just starting to dig into his numbers.

Tex
The thing with Pitts wasn't so much about his production in college, although he did have nice numbers his senior year (43 for 770 and 12)

What made him an exciting prospect was more about his elite size, speed and potential. He looked like he could be Calvin Johnson playing TE, a potential mismatch nightmare for NFL defenses. Unfortunately something just never clicked for him at the NFL level, and looking back, he was extremely raw for a guy that wound up going #4 in the draft.

Warren looks like a much safer prospect at TE. He's not Kyle Pitts, but he's not Brock Bowers either. He's more of a prototypical TE that should excel at the next level. He's going to go very high in this draft.

ETA - Fannin was an elite receiver this year. Teams knew what was coming and they still couldn't stop him. Good teams, bad teams, elite defenses, it did not matter. His weight might be a problem as a traditional TE in the NFL. I believe his combine testing will be very important to his draft stock because I'm not sure how effective he is/will be as a blocker. He was used a lot out wide and in the slot this season and could not be stopped by anyone. He does play much faster than his reported 40 time. This might be a lazy comparison, but he looks like an upgraded version of Isaiah Likely to me. He's a very interesting prospect.

I can see the Eagles taking a shot on Fannin in the 2nd round. They need a Goedert replacement.
If he's available. If he runs faster than what he's tested at in the past, he's a 1st round pick all day. He's a very smart receiver with great hands. He could be a tremendous weapon in the NFL. I could see the Broncos taking a chance on him in the 1st if he's still there.

He's the #3 TE on the board. Have 3 TEs ever been taken in the 1st round?
2017. Engram, Njoku and OJ Howard.

May not be the only one, just only one I remember.
Also 2002. Shockey, Graham, and Stevens. I'm not aware of any other modern day instance.

I'll add, it's also relatively rare that even two tight ends are taken in round 1.

I don't know if it's because it's such a difficult position to evaluate, or if it's because TE is traditionally a position where your team does not see immediate returns. Maybe guys like LaPorta and Bowers start to change that line of thinking. Maybe teams seeing significant contributors like Kraft, Ferguson, LaPorta, McBride and many others in recent memory go outside of the first round and become significant parts of the team offense might help revalue the position in the draft?

In a year that's heavy on RBs, light on elite WRs, light on QBs, who knows what might happen? It's going to be an interesting draft to say the least.
 
It's Warren and Loveland for me. Not a deep TE class IMO.
I have Fannin number one - followed by Warren and Loveland.

Tell me more about Fannin...I have not seen him play this year...his stats this year are impressive...I see him listed at 230...will that be an issue?

I'm a PSU fan and they played Bowling Green this year. Fannin had the best game of any opposing player all year. The one thing I remember is him being very tough to tackle, which after PSU's performance vs Jeanty is really saying something. He was a problem.

Bowling Green was winning at halftime largely because of Fannin. He and Warren are both great players but very different playstyles. I'm hoping Fannin goes under the radar a bit so I can scoop him late in dynasty.
He won’t, he’s too good.

Tex
Do you think he will be more productive than Kyle Pitts?
He outperformed Pitts at the collegiate level when comparing the numbers. Pitts had a great rookie season but fell off but we need to see more to try and answer your question properly.

He looks the part but I’m just starting to dig into his numbers.

Tex
The thing with Pitts wasn't so much about his production in college, although he did have nice numbers his senior year (43 for 770 and 12)

What made him an exciting prospect was more about his elite size, speed and potential. He looked like he could be Calvin Johnson playing TE, a potential mismatch nightmare for NFL defenses. Unfortunately something just never clicked for him at the NFL level, and looking back, he was extremely raw for a guy that wound up going #4 in the draft.

Warren looks like a much safer prospect at TE. He's not Kyle Pitts, but he's not Brock Bowers either. He's more of a prototypical TE that should excel at the next level. He's going to go very high in this draft.

ETA - Fannin was an elite receiver this year. Teams knew what was coming and they still couldn't stop him. Good teams, bad teams, elite defenses, it did not matter. His weight might be a problem as a traditional TE in the NFL. I believe his combine testing will be very important to his draft stock because I'm not sure how effective he is/will be as a blocker. He was used a lot out wide and in the slot this season and could not be stopped by anyone. He does play much faster than his reported 40 time. This might be a lazy comparison, but he looks like an upgraded version of Isaiah Likely to me. He's a very interesting prospect.

I can see the Eagles taking a shot on Fannin in the 2nd round. They need a Goedert replacement.
If he's available. If he runs faster than what he's tested at in the past, he's a 1st round pick all day. He's a very smart receiver with great hands. He could be a tremendous weapon in the NFL. I could see the Broncos taking a chance on him in the 1st if he's still there.
I'm hoping he ends up in Indy, but I agree Denver would also be a great landing spot.
 
I think he is the clear TE1 coming out, just hope for a friendly landing spot.
If he's good he's good, right? I mean Brock Bowers landed in as unfriendly a spot as you could have imagined last year and still ate.
This should be true, however it seems like the TE transition from college to pros has been historically more challenging than other skill positions. I can point to several TEs that I believe have the goods to consistently produce but just do not. I cannot take anything away from Bowers as he is an amazing talent, however he did not have a ton of target competition and played for team who was often playing catchup. Credit to them for making him their focal point, but they also did not have a lot of choices. I cannot be certain Warren falls into the same perfect storm.
 
The more I dive into Warren, the more I feel like I wanted him to be Brock Bowers-lite…but I am starting to sour. Although impressed with his variety of deployment and usage (and production), I am not sure he is the anywhere near the athlete to keep the same type of usage at the next level. He seems a little stiff and I don’t think he ends up testing real well if he does so at his pro day. He he skips that testing, I will be a little concerned. As of today I would put both Loveland and Taylor ahead of him.
 
The more I dive into Warren, the more I feel like I wanted him to be Brock Bowers-lite…but I am starting to sour. Although impressed with his variety of deployment and usage (and production), I am not sure he is the anywhere near the athlete to keep the same type of usage at the next level. He seems a little stiff and I don’t think he ends up testing real well if he does so at his pro day. He he skips that testing, I will be a little concerned. As of today I would put both Loveland and Taylor ahead of him.
Looking at the TE class, I think Warren and Taylor are VERY similar players. I like Warren more, but they win almost the exact same way. Loveland feels like he has a higher ceiling and a lower floor to me. Like, if any of them end being elite it will be Loveland, but he seems riskier. Then Arroyo seems like a different type entirely.
 
I think he is the clear TE1 coming out, just hope for a friendly landing spot.
The stats he put up with varied usage is very rare. He has perfect size too. He's definitely a tier below Bowers and Pitts (as prospects) when we factor in age, athleticism and early production but it's close. I am very excited for dynasty.
 
I think he is the clear TE1 coming out, just hope for a friendly landing spot.
If he's good he's good, right? I mean Brock Bowers landed in as unfriendly a spot as you could have imagined last year and still ate.
Bowers landed with a bad QB but it worked out as a situation where they needed to throw a lot, didn't have anyone else to throw to and you had a coach who wasn't hard headed about the whole "I need my TE to block first" thing and delpoyed Bowers as a receiver primarily. Bowers actually wasn't very efficient, he just got throw the ball a crazy amount.
 
Really interested in how he does at the next level. In a couple early PPR TE premium leagues he's been going around TE 7, which is a bit rich for me, but maybe not?

I was at the Purdue/Penn State game last year in West Layfayette and he was impressive to see play in person. Dude completely dominated in the air and on the ground. Purdue was HORRIBLE last year on both sides of the ball, but Warren had a game. Any highlight real of him has basically every one of his plays from that game, lol.

Right now he is being drafted as rookie Bowers 2.0. Not sure I'd go there yet, especially before landing spot, but he's good.
 
What does Penn State TE Tyler Warren bring to NFL? ‘He can do it all. It’s an easy pick’

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Tyler Warren had no statement or prepared talking points when he was asked why he thinks he’s the best tight end in this year’s NFL Draft class.

“That’s not what I focus on,” Warren said Friday at Penn State’s pro day. “I just know I’m gonna be a team player that’s gonna come in and do the job and just do whatever I can to help the team win.”
Warren could’ve run down his list of accomplishments, starting with winning the Mackey Award, given annually to the nation’s top tight end. He could’ve picked any number of games when he lined up as a wildcat quarterback or hauled in contested catches as Penn State’s top target. He even could have pointed to the USC game, when he snapped the ball, darted down the field and caught a touchdown over the top of a defender all in one play.

Teams have asked him about those moments from the NFL Scouting Combine to now. Still, Warren politely would rather not say too much about himself.

“That is one of the things that is kind of a little weird about this,” he said. “You kind of have to be selfish, and it’s really about you for a few months until you do get on a team. It has been a little weird for me, and I have had to adjust, but I’m still trying to be the same person I was when I was here.”

Warren weaved his way through Holuba Hall on Friday, observing and hyping up his teammates. This was the first time many of them have been together since the Nittany Lions’ season ended in Miami with a loss to Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff semifinal. Warren did not participate in pro day, nor did edge rusher and projected top-five pick Abdul Carter. Carter dined with members of the Browns organization Thursday night at The Tavern restaurant in State College. He said he’s “close to 100 percent” but is continuing to recover from his shoulder injury suffered during the Fiesta Bowl.
As cameras followed Carter, his family and agent Drew Rosenhaus throughout Holuba Hall, Warren took a seat next to his former Penn State teammate Pat Freiermuth. There was no point in Warren risking injury just weeks out from the draft. His first-round draft stock is as good as secured, and there are 16 games from last season for talent evaluators to sift through.
“There’s a lot of opportunities to prove stuff when you’re in meetings and doing a lot of different stuff over Zoom calls,” Warren said. “There’s still plenty I can prove.”

With Warren’s worn-in Penn State ball cap pulled low over his flowing blonde locks, he and Freiermuth chatted like they’ve done since Warren enrolled at Penn State. Freiermuth was headed into his final collegiate season when Warren, a quarterback turned tight end, was just getting his footing. Neither knew at the time that the position group included four tight ends who would be drafted, and the most coveted of the group would be the quiet young player who grew into one of college football’s superstars.

“He’s the best tight end to come out of Penn State,” Freiermuth said. “He’s a contested catch guy, and if you can be a contested catch guy, you’re gonna find a lot of success because the quarterbacks are gonna trust you in any circumstance. When you’re covered, you’re not. He’s proven he can do it all. I’m super excited for him and the opportunity he has coming up.”
Warren has the chance to be the first Penn State tight end selected in the top 10 since Kyle Brady was drafted ninth overall by the New York Jets in 1995. Having two players go early in the first round certainly would be another feather in James Franklin’s cap. Warren said he is still deciding where he’s going to be when he hears his name called next month. He was invited to attend the draft in Green Bay but is leaning toward staying home and being surrounded by family in Virginia.

Warren is poised to continue a remarkable stretch during which Penn State tight ends Freiermuth (second round, 55th overall in 2021), Brenton Strange (second round, 61st overall in 2023) and Theo Johnson (fourth round, 107th overall in 2024) have helped make the program a hotbed for tight ends. Freiermuth said one of the questions he hears from recruits is whether he thinks they will be used like Warren was last season.
Freiermuth said he’s quick to remind them that few have the skill set and can develop the staff’s trust enough to where they can spend precious practice time snapping the football, booting punts and playing quarterback and of course, tight end.

Put plainly: There aren’t many like Warren out there.

“He’s gonna fit in any scheme,” Freiermuth said. “He can win vs. man. He can win vs. zone and settle down and find the soft spots — and he’s a hell of a blocker. … It’s a good problem to have being an offensive coordinator or an organization trying to pick a guy like that. He can do it all. It’s an easy pick.”
 
I’m starting to think there are 3 players in the 2nd tier for non SF. first tier being Jeanty and Hampton, then Tet, golden and Warren. Burden might make it 4 in the second tier.
Less than 4 weeks away now :popcorn:
 
I have no way of landing this guy which is nice because I hate TEs in the first round of rookie drafts. Yuck.

But this guy, by all accounts, is dynamite on and off of the field. Kudos to him, yet I also hope that the Jets, who he's constantly mocked to, don't take him (this would also be a disaster for interested fantasy GMs). We don't need a tight end at seven. It's just not even remotely close to a premier position and it takes years to learn. By the time he's in full swing it's time to extend him already.

No thanks. I don't want to disparage his game or person; I just don't want to take him in the first round for dynasty or have the team I cheer for take him, either.

Sounds like a great kid, though. Wish him well.
 
LaPorta or Warren?
Isn't it too early to make that call? We don't know what team / QB / system Warren will be in. One has to think that LaPorta is the call and it isn't close as of today. What if Warren is drafted by the Colts? With what AR has shown that wouldn't help Warren's value. Same goes for the Jets and Fields.
 
What if Warren is drafted by the Colts? With what AR has shown that wouldn't help Warren's value. Same goes for the Jets and Fields.
This and odds are it's going to happen to him or Loveland, maybe both.

In the trade thread last week I mentioned I'd take both of them over Hockenson. I still would but will admit after making that comment I thought about it some more and got a little uneasy.

As a side note I'm a big Goedert owner who has long wanted him to be traded so he's not the third option on a run based offense. But I worry about the Colts and his connection with Stiechen and that's one of the few places I'd be lower on him then if he remained an Eagle.

If the Jets and Colts don't trade for a TE, my guess is two of the top 4 rookie TE's are going to get bad landing spots.
 
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Jordan Schultz
Sources: Penn State TE Tyler Warren has just one scheduled visit — rare for a potential top-10 pick — as teams view him as “one of the cleanest prospects.”

While Warren’s already had multiple private workouts, one team picking in the top 10 canceled theirs last minute, saying: “What are we really getting out of this? We’ve seen enough on him.”

Said one executive: “He checks every box — character, toughness, intelligence, and he’s just scratching the surface athletically. There’s not much to overthink.”
 
I am picking at 1.07, eyeing Warren, but depending on what team drafts him, he might not be there at 1.07. But I could also use WR and RB, so it will be BPA, like it should be for me.
If Loveland lands with LAC or another TE needy team with a good QB, should he be considered at 1.07?
 
I am picking at 1.07, eyeing Warren, but depending on what team drafts him, he might not be there at 1.07. But I could also use WR and RB, so it will be BPA, like it should be for me.
If Loveland lands with LAC or another TE needy team with a good QB, should he be considered at 1.07?
I plan to use Warren as the trigger to pick Loveland. I'm in the second half of rd 1 in all drafts. Hope they both go to good locations, but Loveland doesn't get TOO much draft capital.
 
No way Warren makes it to the Colts at 14, so I'm thinking Loveland goes to the Colts. However, if for some reason Warren falls to 14, the Colts will most certainly take him.
 
TEs with 1st round draft capital the past 10 years:
Eric Ebron
David Njoku
Evan Engram
OJ Howard
Hayden Hurst
Noah Fant
TJ Hockenson
Kyle Pitts
Brock Bowers

One of these things is not like the others...
I don't really care to put in the leg work breaking down where all these guys finished over their careers against the TE field respective to the ADP cost of those other TEs, or what other positional players were drafted right after them in fantasy ADP and how they performed comparatively. Regardless, people will do some mental gymnastics to explain how "yeah, but this time is different!!!". All I know is I won't be touching Warren or Loveland in the first round (especially considering one of them is highly likely to be a Colt) unless we basically get the worst possible outcomes for the top 8 or so RBs and the top 4 or so WRs. And even then... I'll probably let someone else take the very, very low percentage gamble based on historical data and trends. Only in a TE premium would I even consider it, and it would take more than a .5 PPR boost to sway me.

Edit: ten years wasn't a meaningful cutoff either, you can take it back another 10 years and add another 10 - 12 first round TEs where you could make the case maybe 1 (Greg Olsen) was worth it. Tyler Eifert, Jermaine Gresham, Brandon Pettigrew, Dustin Keller, Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis, Heath Miller... and on and on...
 
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I am picking at 1.07, eyeing Warren, but depending on what team drafts him, he might not be there at 1.07. But I could also use WR and RB, so it will be BPA, like it should be for me.
If Loveland lands with LAC or another TE needy team with a good QB, should he be considered at 1.07?
I have 1.4 and 1.6 now. 1.4 will be the leftover of Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson or likely Judkins as RB are always hard to find. 1.6 will be used for Warren, McMillan or Burden most likely.
 
I am picking at 1.07, eyeing Warren, but depending on what team drafts him, he might not be there at 1.07. But I could also use WR and RB, so it will be BPA, like it should be for me.
If Loveland lands with LAC or another TE needy team with a good QB, should he be considered at 1.07?
I have 1.4 and 1.6 now. 1.4 will be the leftover of Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson or likely Judkins as RB are always hard to find. 1.6 will be used for Warren, McMillan or Burden most likely.
I'm leery of Burden. I'm still onboard but cautious. Is he more the 2023 version or the 2024 version? Is he system dependent? He seemed to get open more in 2023. Did all of sudden in 2024 did teams suddenly cover him more, or was it more the way they used him? This is why I'm asking is he system dependent.
 
I am picking at 1.07, eyeing Warren, but depending on what team drafts him, he might not be there at 1.07. But I could also use WR and RB, so it will be BPA, like it should be for me.
If Loveland lands with LAC or another TE needy team with a good QB, should he be considered at 1.07?
I have 1.4 and 1.6 now. 1.4 will be the leftover of Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson or likely Judkins as RB are always hard to find. 1.6 will be used for Warren, McMillan or Burden most likely.
I'm leery of Burden. I'm still onboard but cautious. Is he more the 2023 version or the 2024 version? Is he system dependent? He seemed to get open more in 2023. Did all of sudden in 2024 did teams suddenly cover him more, or was it more the way they used him? This is why I'm asking is he system dependent.
Same, not to derail the Warren thread; but add to this some of the personality/temperament issues which have been brought up a few times now the past couple weeks. I'm ok with a WR being a bit of a Diva; but hearing tape grinders talk about seeing lack of effort on the field in plays he wasn't involved in, and in games where he wasn't seeing much work.... that's no bueno. One even posited it was partially the cause of his drop off in 2024, just being mentally checked out because their QB was bad.

I keep hearing him get comped to Aiyuk and one of the main reasons Aiyuk popped was he was grinding those first two seasons to improve all his deficiencies and win over Shannahan. If Burden isn't mentally equipped and open to doing the same, well then him becoming Aiyuk-esque is a lot less likely. Part of projecting these college guys is the assumption they will continue to improve and hone their craft.
 
Just a random observation that puzzles me is Tyler Warren looks massive, looks bigger then any of what I consider the big 4 TE's yet they all within 4/10th of an inch and 10 pounds of each other and Warren without a doubt has less length then all of them. It's like some kind of optic allusion or something.
 
TEs with 1st round draft capital the past 10 years:
Eric Ebron
David Njoku
Evan Engram
OJ Howard
Hayden Hurst
Noah Fant
TJ Hockenson
Kyle Pitts
Brock Bowers

One of these things is not like the others...
I don't really care to put in the leg work breaking down where all these guys finished over their careers against the TE field respective to the ADP cost of those other TEs, or what other positional players were drafted right after them in fantasy ADP and how they performed comparatively. Regardless, people will do some mental gymnastics to explain how "yeah, but this time is different!!!". All I know is I won't be touching Warren or Loveland in the first round (especially considering one of them is highly likely to be a Colt) unless we basically get the worst possible outcomes for the top 8 or so RBs and the top 4 or so WRs. And even then... I'll probably let someone else take the very, very low percentage gamble based on historical data and trends. Only in a TE premium would I even consider it, and it would take more than a .5 PPR boost to sway me.

Edit: ten years wasn't a meaningful cutoff either, you can take it back another 10 years and add another 10 - 12 first round TEs where you could make the case maybe 1 (Greg Olsen) was worth it. Tyler Eifert, Jermaine Gresham, Brandon Pettigrew, Dustin Keller, Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis, Heath Miller... and on and on...
don't forget Kincaid who is also in that bust category right now
Looking at the list of TEs draft I noticed that the 1st 1 in the draft classis usually a bust, odd that teams still get this position wrong more times than not
 
TEs with 1st round draft capital the past 10 years:
Eric Ebron
David Njoku
Evan Engram
OJ Howard
Hayden Hurst
Noah Fant
TJ Hockenson
Kyle Pitts
Brock Bowers

One of these things is not like the others...
I don't really care to put in the leg work breaking down where all these guys finished over their careers against the TE field respective to the ADP cost of those other TEs, or what other positional players were drafted right after them in fantasy ADP and how they performed comparatively. Regardless, people will do some mental gymnastics to explain how "yeah, but this time is different!!!". All I know is I won't be touching Warren or Loveland in the first round (especially considering one of them is highly likely to be a Colt) unless we basically get the worst possible outcomes for the top 8 or so RBs and the top 4 or so WRs. And even then... I'll probably let someone else take the very, very low percentage gamble based on historical data and trends. Only in a TE premium would I even consider it, and it would take more than a .5 PPR boost to sway me.

Edit: ten years wasn't a meaningful cutoff either, you can take it back another 10 years and add another 10 - 12 first round TEs where you could make the case maybe 1 (Greg Olsen) was worth it. Tyler Eifert, Jermaine Gresham, Brandon Pettigrew, Dustin Keller, Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis, Heath Miller... and on and on...
don't forget Kincaid who is also in that bust category right now
Looking at the list of TEs draft I noticed that the 1st 1 in the draft classis usually a bust, odd that teams still get this position wrong more times than not
Good call, definitely overlooked him. The pisser is some of these guys are really, really good NFL players with exceptionally high talent levels. Its just TE is probably the second hardest position to play next to QB, especially when looking at the step up from college to NFL. And also you just need so many other things to break your way that are really out of player control to be a consistently high fantasy producer. Pitts had a top 6 TE finish, as did Njoku, Engram's had 3. But its much more reliant on team fit, scheme, play calling, QB, surrounding talent... Would Bowers have even been Bowers last season if didn't land on a team devoid of offensive talent? An OC who made Robert Tonyan and Cole Kmet fantasy relevant? A QB with a penchant for zeroing in on one guy and throwing to that guy regardless of coverage and situation in Minschew? I think he'd still have been A TE1, just not THE TE1.

Even from a value collection standpoint, it just doesn't add up to me taking Warren or Loveland as a mid to late first round rookie pick. What's their realistic absolute ceiling? Top 3 TE? LaPorta, a known commodity and the current TE3, is ranked 54 in startup ADP. Now what's the realistic absolute ceiling for guys like Burden, Egbuka, Judkins, Henderson, Johnson? Top 6 RBs, especially considering the currently weak state of the position in dynasty. And WR8-12 maybe if you get the Aiyuk/ARSB comps widely connected with those two. RB6 Breece Hall is pick 36 in start up ADP, and WR12 is mad Ladd going at pick 29. Even if these tight ends reach their ceilings, they just aren't worth the value in dynasty leagues of the WRs/RBs in that ADP range if they also hit their ceilings.

Obviously everyone wants the next Bowers. But even outside the nearly astronomical odds either of these guys will ever be that; the cost to value proposition just is not good. I'll gladly buy a couple $1 lottery tickets to maybe win a million. But when you start charging $100 a ticket, I'll look a bit closer at those actual odds of hitting and pass.
 

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