oldmanhawkins
Footballguy
I think you've hit the nail on the head with the comparison of TE's to QB's. If we think about why QBs fail, there are a whole plethora of reasons that we can't always prognosticate. For WRs it is really simple...if you can get open, you will get on the field and can fairly easily become the #1 or #2 option on your team. For RBs there are more hurdles but still fairly straightforward...avoid injuries, don't fumble and pass block and you will get on the field and can be fantasy relevant for a spell even if you are inefficient with your touches.Good call, definitely overlooked him. The pisser is some of these guys are really, really good NFL players with exceptionally high talent levels. Its just TE is probably the second hardest position to play next to QB, especially when looking at the step up from college to NFL. And also you just need so many other things to break your way that are really out of player control to be a consistently high fantasy producer. Pitts had a top 6 TE finish, as did Njoku, Engram's had 3. But its much more reliant on team fit, scheme, play calling, QB, surrounding talent... Would Bowers have even been Bowers last season if didn't land on a team devoid of offensive talent? An OC who made Robert Tonyan and Cole Kmet fantasy relevant? A QB with a penchant for zeroing in on one guy and throwing to that guy regardless of coverage and situation in Minschew? I think he'd still have been A TE1, just not THE TE1.don't forget Kincaid who is also in that bust category right nowTEs with 1st round draft capital the past 10 years:
Eric Ebron
David Njoku
Evan Engram
OJ Howard
Hayden Hurst
Noah Fant
TJ Hockenson
Kyle Pitts
Brock Bowers
One of these things is not like the others...
I don't really care to put in the leg work breaking down where all these guys finished over their careers against the TE field respective to the ADP cost of those other TEs, or what other positional players were drafted right after them in fantasy ADP and how they performed comparatively. Regardless, people will do some mental gymnastics to explain how "yeah, but this time is different!!!". All I know is I won't be touching Warren or Loveland in the first round (especially considering one of them is highly likely to be a Colt) unless we basically get the worst possible outcomes for the top 8 or so RBs and the top 4 or so WRs. And even then... I'll probably let someone else take the very, very low percentage gamble based on historical data and trends. Only in a TE premium would I even consider it, and it would take more than a .5 PPR boost to sway me.
Edit: ten years wasn't a meaningful cutoff either, you can take it back another 10 years and add another 10 - 12 first round TEs where you could make the case maybe 1 (Greg Olsen) was worth it. Tyler Eifert, Jermaine Gresham, Brandon Pettigrew, Dustin Keller, Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis, Heath Miller... and on and on...
Looking at the list of TEs draft I noticed that the 1st 1 in the draft classis usually a bust, odd that teams still get this position wrong more times than not
Even from a value collection standpoint, it just doesn't add up to me taking Warren or Loveland as a mid to late first round rookie pick. What's their realistic absolute ceiling? Top 3 TE? LaPorta, a known commodity and the current TE3, is ranked 54 in startup ADP. Now what's the realistic absolute ceiling for guys like Burden, Egbuka, Judkins, Henderson, Johnson? Top 6 RBs, especially considering the currently weak state of the position in dynasty. And WR8-12 maybe if you get the Aiyuk/ARSB comps widely connected with those two. RB6 Breece Hall is pick 36 in start up ADP, and WR12 is mad Ladd going at pick 29. Even if these tight ends reach their ceilings, they just aren't worth the value in dynasty leagues of the WRs/RBs in that ADP range if they also hit their ceilings.
Obviously everyone wants the next Bowers. But even outside the nearly astronomical odds either of these guys will ever be that; the cost to value proposition just is not good. I'll gladly buy a couple $1 lottery tickets to maybe win a million. But when you start charging $100 a ticket, I'll look a bit closer at those actual odds of hitting and pass.
The list you shared shows that for TEs there are so many variables that can prevent a talented TE from being reliably fantasy relevant.
Health, scheme, pecking order, red zone usage, blocking ability...if any of these are suboptimal a really talented TE will just be a semi-startable guy for fantasy. Often, the TE will have a really great year early career (Sam LaPorta) or late career (Johnnu Smith) or randomly sprinkled mid career (Vernon Davis) but trusting them year in and year out is much harder than at other positions.
My strategy at the position has always been to try to identify who has a path to 100+ targets. That process is pretty sound as I generally avoid spending picks on Dallas Goedert or Cole Kmet or Friermuth. Of course, I was burned by Dalton Kincaid in multiple leagues...