Teach me how to play match-ups (1 Viewer)

[guderian]

Looking back at my season I scored 87 TE points whereas I have 3 TEs that each scored higher than that. If I had stuck with my best D and TE all year (even through bye weeks) i would have scored 4 ppg more than I did, for instance.

In the past I've looked at combinations of things such as:

FBGs rankings adjusted for my scoring system

MFL points allowed by position

Weather

Key injuries

Which QB 'likes' throwing to which player, etc.

Which CB is likely to guard which WR

Field type

Etc., etc., etc.

Since "start your studs" isn't always the only option in a dynasty league where your strength at different positions gets shuffled around after several years. What am I doing wrong? For example, the Saints get gouged by Atlanta and allow 200 yards rushing in week 3. Then they allow 200+ to Baltimore the week before they play Atlanta again. So what do they allow to Atlanta last week? 75--and 26 of those were for Matt Ryan. Or Carson Palmer goes off for 4 TDs against SD when they were allowing the fewest QB points in my league.

So, if I have multiple starting options at certain positions how do I capitalize on that to BOOST my points or at least not LOSE points by trying to play match-ups. What works?

 

[kiLLscaLLion]

You can't predict upsets, but you do play matchups in the hope that over the long term you get more PPG (one season, however, isn't "long term").

 

[FantasyTrader]

To have an accurate discussion about whether or not you're using fauly logic with your lineup decisions, I'd need to see the players involved. But from your post, I have a hunch you're making the process more complicated than it needs to be. It would be rare indeed to have three TE's who are a virtual coin-flip of the following: talent, situation and PPG production. Only then should you be factoring in weather, SOS and injuries (to supporting cast). What most people don't realize about SOS is just how little usually seperates a 22nd ranking giving that D against a green light on the grid vs. a 9th ranking giving the D against a red matchup. That combined with say...a chance of snow is no reason to be benching the flat out more talented/utilized TE.

I would guess you were splitting hairs where you shouldn't have.

 

[pittstownkiller]

Looking back at my season I scored 87 TE points whereas I have 3 TEs that each scored higher than that. If I had stuck with my best D and TE all year (even through bye weeks) i would have scored 4 ppg more than I did, for instance. In the past I've looked at combinations of things such as:FBGs rankings adjusted for my scoring systemMFL points allowed by positionWeatherKey injuriesWhich QB 'likes' throwing to which player, etc.Which CB is likely to guard which WRField typeEtc., etc., etc.Since "start your studs" isn't always the only option in a dynasty league where your strength at different positions gets shuffled around after several years. What am I doing wrong? For example, the Saints get gouged by Atlanta and allow 200 yards rushing in week 3. Then they allow 200+ to Baltimore the week before they play Atlanta again. So what do they allow to Atlanta last week? 75--and 26 of those were for Matt Ryan. Or Carson Palmer goes off for 4 TDs against SD when they were allowing the fewest QB points in my league. So, if I have multiple starting options at certain positions how do I capitalize on that to BOOST my points or at least not LOSE points by trying to play match-ups. What works?

You question yourself on not being able to identify that C. Palmer was going to go off against SDG, how would you possibly know that? Mr. Dodds, himself, had Palmer ranked 30th overall. Match-ups are important but you have the advantage in a dynasty league of knowing your players history. You should know your team better than anyone else; in a dynasty league you have a chance to know your guys and how they are utilized very well. My advice to you, in lieu of being able to always guess the hot hand, is to strengthen the average players on your team. I play in a dynasty league also. I did not play Rodgers this week, as is documented in another thread. That could of been a deadly error but I had P. Manning also (Palmer too). I left over 50 pts. on my bench but still won by over 40 pts. What is the secret to a good draft? To me your middle and late rounds; during the season your second string players are going to be the ones that save your bacon.. If you can identify talent that is undervalued, you can really build a powerhouse. Trying to land a star in a dynasty format usually means letting talent go. These middle tier players, on the way up, are the ticket; then matchups can take their proper place, a tool to mitigate talent - not to divine a flash in the pan.

 

[guderian]

I guess what I'm looking for is research or articles that would indicate what game factors determine what players should be started. Over the years it seems that most of the articles and discussion are of the 'player value' or 'roster composition' nature. I'd be interested to see any hard data about what makes a certain player out-perform their ppg average in a specific game situation outside of the randomness of TDs.

 

[guderian]

You question yourself on not being able to identify that C. Palmer was going to go off against SDG, how would you possibly know that? Mr. Dodds, himself, had Palmer ranked 30th overall. Match-ups are important but you have the advantage in a dynasty league of knowing your players history. You should know your team better than anyone else; in a dynasty league you have a chance to know your guys and how they are utilized very well. My advice to you, in lieu of being able to always guess the hot hand, is to strengthen the average players on your team. I play in a dynasty league also. I did not play Rodgers this week, as is documented in another thread. That could of been a deadly error but I had P. Manning also (Palmer too). I left over 50 pts. on my bench but still won by over 40 pts. What is the secret to a good draft? To me your middle and late rounds; during the season your second string players are going to be the ones that save your bacon.. If you can identify talent that is undervalued, you can really build a powerhouse. Trying to land a star in a dynasty format usually means letting talent go. These middle tier players, on the way up, are the ticket; then matchups can take their proper place, a tool to mitigate talent - not to divine a flash in the pan.

Fair enough, but with injuries and the nature of dynasty leagues you can end up with great starters at certain positions and some tough decisions at others. I was using Palmer and Atlanta's rushing stats versus the Saints as an example of the contrary nature of some of the outcomes. Perhaps the best approach is to pick a starter and stick with them unless a number of factors weigh against them (i.e. weather, top 5 D against that position, etc.)

 

[guderian]

To have an accurate discussion about whether or not you're using fauly logic with your lineup decisions, I'd need to see the players involved. But from your post, I have a hunch you're making the process more complicated than it needs to be. It would be rare indeed to have three TE's who are a virtual coin-flip of the following: talent, situation and PPG production. Only then should you be factoring in weather, SOS and injuries (to supporting cast). What most people don't realize about SOS is just how little usually seperates a 22nd ranking giving that D against a green light on the grid vs. a 9th ranking giving the D against a red matchup. That combined with say...a chance of snow is no reason to be benching the flat out more talented/utilized TE. I would guess you were splitting hairs where you shouldn't have.

I didn't want it to be about my team as much as a general discussion about the rationale behind playing match-ups and what has worked for people (players score more ppg at the home versus on the road? and such). However, the two primary TEs on my roster were Winslow and Ben Watson. Your point about minor differences in SOS is a good one and perhaps the answer is to only factor that in to your decision if an opponent is in the top/bottom 5 in points allowed to a position.

 

[FantasyTrader]

I guess what I'm looking for is research or articles that would indicate what game factors determine what players should be started. Over the years it seems that most of the articles and discussion are of the 'player value' or 'roster composition' nature. I'd be interested to see any hard data about what makes a certain player out-perform their ppg average in a specific game situation outside of the randomness of TDs.

I would too. So what you're looking for is a projections calculator where you plug in player's ppg average, projected gametime temp, wind speed, precipitation, defense FP allowed against that position, injury status and whether or not the player got laid last night and it'll give you the player's projected production +/- his average? That doesn't exist that I know of.

 

[FantasyTrader]

To have an accurate discussion about whether or not you're using fauly logic with your lineup decisions, I'd need to see the players involved. But from your post, I have a hunch you're making the process more complicated than it needs to be. It would be rare indeed to have three TE's who are a virtual coin-flip of the following: talent, situation and PPG production. Only then should you be factoring in weather, SOS and injuries (to supporting cast). What most people don't realize about SOS is just how little usually seperates a 22nd ranking giving that D against a green light on the grid vs. a 9th ranking giving the D against a red matchup. That combined with say...a chance of snow is no reason to be benching the flat out more talented/utilized TE. I would guess you were splitting hairs where you shouldn't have.

I didn't want it to be about my team as much as a general discussion about the rationale behind playing match-ups and what has worked for people (players score more ppg at the home versus on the road? and such). However, the two primary TEs on my roster were Winslow and Ben Watson. Your point about minor differences in SOS is a good one and perhaps the answer is to only factor that in to your decision if an opponent is in the top/bottom 5 in points allowed to a position.

Yes. IMO, SOS is an unreliable matchup tool unless it's a top 5-7 or bottom 5-7 defense against. I could vary based on many factors.

 

[valhallan]

I think you can only rely on matchups when they're amazingly juicy (Houston's pass D this year) or amazingly stiff (Jets pass D last year). Otherwise you have to focus a little more on situations. How do you expect this NFL game to play out? What will these teams do differently from the last week and the last time they met? In your example, it wasn't too hard to predict the Saints would come in determined to stop the run after being embarrassed last week (and I did say that in the pre-game thread ). The Saints aren't truly flawed in the way Houston's pass D has been, so again it wasn't a permanent weakness that you could count on exploiting every week.

 

[flc735]

i look at the avg points given up by opponent at each particular position pretty often. different from pass/rushing yards against. historically, philly is good against the pass but poor against the TE for example. high over unders are also a good sign.

i feel like i do better with those than just gut feeling but still not great. to get it completely right would require a lot more luck than skill, imo

eta: this works very well with my ww kicking carousel. i usually finish near the top in K scoring

 

[Londo]

When I have a choice between two or more equally valued players, I almost always choose the one who is facing the defense giving up the most fantasy points to that position. After week 3 or 4 of the season, that data becomes more and more predictive and accurate. It is also available from a number of sources, including FBG (though I prefer a different source based on the way they present their data).

Later in the season, I actually parse out the data a bit to only include the last 4 games, as a lot of things change over the course of a season.

Again, this is only something I do for close calls. I am a firm believer in making the "smart" choice when you have one (e.g., don't bench Vick against the Giants for "Lesser QB X" versus the worst passing Defense in the league). It is a good way to maximize the potential points for a given position if you don't have a stud (or if you have multiple ones).

 

[firstseason1988]

1. Never bench studs,

2. when in doubt, go with game you can watch on TV, like sun. night football, or someone giving you a chance on mon. night

3. go with player who is "due" for ex. a decent Wr who hasn't had a Td in 3 games

4. go with your gut, you are the one who makes the decision, not some website, use the website as a guide, but YOU make the decision, more satisfying when you are right and only yourself to blame when it goes wrong

 

[pantagrapher]

When it comes to positions like TE and Kicker, I'm a proponent of the old fantasy baseball catcher position wisdom "set it and forget it." Chasing stats at those positions will only lead to misery.

Playing the match-ups works best for the WR position, I think. I think bad secondaries are the most consistent units in football. If you can't cover people, you can't cover them. You can't learn not to get beat very easily. I think it's easier for a bad run D to luck its way into a solid game than it is for a bad secondary to do the same. Also, it's usually easier to pick up a spot WR than a spot RB. A perfect example this year of playing a match-up was Ajirotutu vs. Houston in Week 9. You had a perfect storm of fortune: a guy who was almost certainly on your waiver wire who for one week projected to be the WR1 on a solid passing team going against a horrible passing defense. I'm sure there are other examples.

I'd almost consider playing match-ups with D/ST a separate thing, since so many people do it. I suspect roughly half the teams in any 12-team league are streaming defenses through the year. Those are fairly easy to pick because the risk/reward isn't as damaging as an offensive position. You pick a D playing against a horrible or struggling or injured offense.

 

[jackdubl]

I believe you look at matchups this way: They are most important at gauging RB production. I bench Chris Johnson every time they play Pittsburgh(with Troy) even though he's a stud, unless I have no other options. I also look at matchups for TEs, and then I only look at how many points the D gives up to TEs. Matchups for WR are the least important, IMO. I only look to see if some of my WRs are going against shutdown corners. You can mostly ignore(but not completely ignore) QB and WR matchups, though, unless it's either really juicy(like playing against Houston's secondary) or really bad.

 

[buck naked]

My #1 factor in TE matchups is the pass defense, especially the safeties and which teams are terrible at covering the TE. Some teams have great safeties who can cover the TE. This will be reflected in the amount of TE points these teams give up on average per week.

 

[Biabreakable]

I would not say I am that good at playing match ups. I use my knowledge of defenses to help me out with this but in the end I think I pick wrong as often as right.

I do not know who your tight ends are but at that position you want to have 1 guy and just stick with him all season. If you have 2 capable TE then try to trade one of them. If you can't trade one of them then you just have to make a choice and start one.

I recall a few years back I had Dallas Clark and Vernon Davis. Not easy to choose which one to start every week and so I tried to trade Clark as Davis is younger (dynasty league) and less injury history. Trade did not happen so I just started Clark the rest of the year although there would be weeks that Davis outscored him.

 

[pittstownkiller]

You question yourself on not being able to identify that C. Palmer was going to go off against SDG, how would you possibly know that? Mr. Dodds, himself, had Palmer ranked 30th overall. Match-ups are important but you have the advantage in a dynasty league of knowing your players history. You should know your team better than anyone else; in a dynasty league you have a chance to know your guys and how they are utilized very well. My advice to you, in lieu of being able to always guess the hot hand, is to strengthen the average players on your team. I play in a dynasty league also. I did not play Rodgers this week, as is documented in another thread. That could of been a deadly error but I had P. Manning also (Palmer too). I left over 50 pts. on my bench but still won by over 40 pts. What is the secret to a good draft? To me your middle and late rounds; during the season your second string players are going to be the ones that save your bacon.. If you can identify talent that is undervalued, you can really build a powerhouse. Trying to land a star in a dynasty format usually means letting talent go. These middle tier players, on the way up, are the ticket; then matchups can take their proper place, a tool to mitigate talent - not to divine a flash in the pan.

Fair enough, but with injuries and the nature of dynasty leagues you can end up with great starters at certain positions and some tough decisions at others. I was using Palmer and Atlanta's rushing stats versus the Saints as an example of the contrary nature of some of the outcomes. Perhaps the best approach is to pick a starter and stick with them unless a number of factors weigh against them (i.e. weather, top 5 D against that position, etc.)

You are kind of making my point, with great starters at some spots, weak ones at others. I always try to get the starters on my team that I haven't really used in years, out of there. My present target is Palmer, he just isn't good enough and one day he is going to have a juicy match-up, or will be just coming off of a good game, and I'll use him only to get burned. If you have mostly solid starters, and you make a wrong call, the divide should not be so great. If your team is a the level that you need to catch lightning in the bottle each week to win, percentages are going to tell you that you will guess wrong enough times. I do agree that less is more and I have a base starting crew that I tweak from week to week.