Team Legacy's 2008 Boom & Bust debut... (1 Viewer)

[Team Legacy]

Over the next few weeks, I'll be starting some controversial debate on my annual Boom Bust picks... Starting out with next year's quarterback bust...

2008 QB BUST - DEREK ANDERSON, QB CLEVELAND BROWNS - ADP QB6

Yep, he's my first projected BUST of 2008. This guy has FRAUD spelled all over him.

I owned him last year and started to expect big things by mid season and was consistently disappointed watching him play. Basing my expectations on his first half the season gameplay, he honestly TANKED the last half of the season. Here are his stats for the last 5 weeks of the season:

1,029 yards (avg 206)

7 tds (avg 1.4)

8 ints (avg 1.6)

And here is his average over the last 9 weeks of season

2,043 (avg 227)

12 tds (avg 1.3)

11 tds (avg 1.2)

The first part of the season was great, thru 7 games: (1744 yards, 249 per game 17 tds, 8 ints.. eye popping yes...) but then it seemed like everyone sorta figured him out. That stretch included games against Pitt (shut him down 184 1 and 1), Cincy (328 and 5) New England (shootout, 287 2 and 3), Baltimore (shade of former self, 204 2 and 1), Oakland (248 1 and 2), Miami (245 and 3) and Saint Louis (248 and 3).

Look, there's no doubt he has some ability, and he's certainly surrounded by some ELITE weapons in Braylon and Winslow, and they've added a speedy Stallworth, but I don't like what I saw. My best guess is, he gets the nod until they lose enough games that they HAVE to try BBQ out, not saying he's the answer, but I just don't think DA is.

I'm calling it now. Derek Anderson IS your 2008 QB BUST.

 

[Almas_4th_Child]

With that Oline improving, Stallworth, Winslow, Braylon, Joe J in the slot, and Jamal Lewis back in form....plus probably another RB in the draft how can he fail?

 

[radballs]

Scott,

What are your projections for him? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your points, but I already have tempered expectations for the guy. I don't think too many people are going to have him ranked in the top 15 anyway. If he falls below QB20, I'll nab him but I wouldn't take him much higher than that.

If you mean he's already tracking as a top 10 guy, then I agree with you.

 

[Neo]

Oh no, not another 5 page debate about DA.

 

[MAC_32]

He'll be a classic risk/reward in next year's drafts, being from Cleveland and predominately in Cleveland drafts I doubt I'll get the opportunity to pick him up but if he were to fall into the similar range Romo did last year (7th-10th QB off the board around pick 70-80) I'll take on the risk...just don't expect that to happen.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I agree to some extent.

He wont live up to his ADP which is about QB what 7 or so. But he's got tons o talent there so I think he might not "bust" to say but he's overvalued and wont live up to his ADP

 

[Pictus Cat]

They shopped him. I think they were confident enough in Quinn.

At what point do you go with the guy you think is better?

Especially if it becomes obvious in training camp or your elite talent starts getting lambasted or held back.

 

[EBF]

I don't think he's any good either. But if he starts all year then he'll have value in that offense. His value will really depend on just how bad he is and on how good the staff thinks Quinn is. I could see a switch by the middle of the season if he stinks up the joint. If he's mediocre like last year then he might last the entire 16 games. I definitely wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole in a dynasty though.

 

[MAC_32]

DA will be the starter as long as the Browns are in any sort of playoff contention, he won't be benched unless the season can be considered a lost cause at some point. Why should you believe this opinion? Rex Grossman, that's all.

 

[Pictus Cat]

DA will be the starter as long as the Browns are in any sort of playoff contention, he won't be benched unless the season can be considered a lost cause at some point. Why should you believe this opinion? Rex Grossman, that's all.

If they think Quinn is better, wouldn't they want to go into the playoffs with him.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I seem to have misplaced by Philip Rivers bookmark....

 

[Pai Mei]

It is impossible for Derek Anderson to be a fantasy bust because no quality team should invest their entire QB position in the guy. A strong backup should be selected by the team picking him. OR Derek is the backup to compliment your starting QB. Just the fact that Brady Quinn may take the job at any time should be enough to knock him WAY down the fantasy draft boards.

 

[BassNBrew]

Scott,What are your projections for him? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your points, but I already have tempered expectations for the guy. I don't think too many people are going to have him ranked in the top 15 anyway. If he falls below QB20, I'll nab him but I wouldn't take him much higher than that. If you mean he's already tracking as a top 10 guy, then I agree with you.

A) Why do people do the first name thing around here? If he wanted to be called Scott his monkier would be Scott Legacy.B) Anderson's ADP in wsl was QB6. QB15...where having napping RVW.

 

[FUBAR]

I was looking at DA's game logs the other day. I find it very interesting.

Just look at his rating by game for the first 8 weeks: 65, 121, 57, 109, 59, 142, BYE, 143

He then levels off, with two games at 83 as his high.

Looking at those big games, the best defense he did well against, Baltimore - ranked #6 overall, but #20 against the pass.

He's way too inconsistent, has more talented competition IMO, and usually gets drafted too high. The team should provide for FF stats, but will he be the QB getting them?

 

[Almas_4th_Child]

I was looking at DA's game logs the other day. I find it very interesting.

Just look at his rating by game for the first 8 weeks: 65, 121, 57, 109, 59, 142, BYE, 143

He then levels off, with two games at 83 as his high.

Looking at those big games, the best defense he did well against, Baltimore - ranked #6 overall, but #20 against the pass.

He's way too inconsistent, has more talented competition IMO, and usually gets drafted too high. The team should provide for FF stats, but will he be the QB getting them?

cough....weather....cough

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I seem to have misplaced by Philip Rivers bookmark....

except for rivers actually lead his team to the playoffs. Fantasywise though I think DA is a better option than Phil.

 

[eric rymer]

I was looking at DA's game logs the other day. I find it very interesting.

Just look at his rating by game for the first 8 weeks: 65, 121, 57, 109, 59, 142, BYE, 143

He then levels off, with two games at 83 as his high.

Looking at those big games, the best defense he did well against, Baltimore - ranked #6 overall, but #20 against the pass.

He's way too inconsistent, has more talented competition IMO, and usually gets drafted too high. The team should provide for FF stats, but will he be the QB getting them?

cough....weather....cough

And like I mentioned in another thread....unless they plan on building a dome before the season starts you can expect the same dropoff again.I wouldn't want the guy as my QB1, but a solid backup that you could insert to exploit certain matchups.

 

[Team Legacy]

With that Oline improving, Stallworth, Winslow, Braylon, Joe J in the slot, and Jamal Lewis back in form....plus probably another RB in the draft how can he fail?

I agree that he's SURROUNDED by talent, which is why the coaching staff MUST DEMAND performance. Granted, when you sign somebody to a ton of money, you don't just cut and run, but let's look real quick at the difference.Derk Anderson: $26 million total, including $14.5 million guaranteedBrady Quinn: $20 million total, $30 million possible with incentives, $7.75 million guaranteed. There's a ton tied up in both, and winning doesn't care who you are, just win and you play. It really all comes down to that. If he doesn't WIN and WIN consistently, the fans nor the coaching staff can afford to wait. They want the playoffs, which BTW, they didn't earn last year with DA. Cleveland is improved, they're young, talented and they're flat out good. Good is one thing, but Top 6 in the AFC is another.

 

[Team Legacy]

Scott,What are your projections for him? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your points, but I already have tempered expectations for the guy. I don't think too many people are going to have him ranked in the top 15 anyway. If he falls below QB20, I'll nab him but I wouldn't take him much higher than that. If you mean he's already tracking as a top 10 guy, then I agree with you.

Ollie, IF he plays all year (and that's a big if), I'd have him down for around 3,600, 21 and 19 (ranking him around #10 overall), but no way does that type of gameplay keep the coaches from seeing what type of gamer they have in Quinn. 21 tds and 19 picks don't win games, and Cleveland will demand wins above all stats.They didn't get in the playoffs last year at 10-6, so they're shooting for at least an 11-5 season I'd imagine, so if they hit 4-3, they'll be worried and gun shy. If they hit 5-4, they likely pull him. They had an extremely soft schedule down the last stretch of the season and under performed. Their last 8 games, they went 5-3, with wins against San Fran, Baltimore, Buffalo, the Jets and Houston. Their losses were to Cincy, Arizona and Pittsburgh. Cake walk city and they only went 5-3, which is NOT good enough for the playoffs in the AFC.

 

[Team Legacy]

I seem to have misplaced by Philip Rivers bookmark....

I thought about Rivers, but with DA's ADP off the charts, he was really a no-brainer. Rivers is at least being drafted reasonably at QB17.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I seem to have misplaced by Philip Rivers bookmark....

I thought about Rivers, but with DA's ADP off the charts, he was really a no-brainer. Rivers is at least being drafted reasonably.

Good posting.Rivers is a modern day FF version of Aikman, a nice solid backup.The jury is still out on DA and his ADP will prevent him from being on any of my teams

 

[Team Legacy]

Scott,What are your projections for him? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your points, but I already have tempered expectations for the guy. I don't think too many people are going to have him ranked in the top 15 anyway. If he falls below QB20, I'll nab him but I wouldn't take him much higher than that. If you mean he's already tracking as a top 10 guy, then I agree with you.

A) Why do people do the first name thing around here? If he wanted to be called Scott his monkier would be Scott Legacy.B) Anderson's ADP in wsl was QB6. QB15...where having napping RVW.

A) I think Ollie used my first name because... Um.. because we know each other? lol... B) This is what I saw and based my Bust pick on this ADP. I can't take him higher than Roth, Hasselback, McNabb, Cutler, or Eli, so that means best case scenario he's outside my Top 10. With Rivers, Young and Kitna, who are all in safer situations, he might slip to QB15. Now, knowing the potential upside, sure he may be worth a QB pick somewhere around here, but my gut still tells me he busts when we look at the year end totals.

 

[MAC_32]

DA will be the starter as long as the Browns are in any sort of playoff contention, he won't be benched unless the season can be considered a lost cause at some point. Why should you believe this opinion? Rex Grossman, that's all.

If they think Quinn is better, wouldn't they want to go into the playoffs with him.

Listen to the sound bites from Romeo and Phil from the last 6 weeks, DA is their guy in 08 regardless of what they think about Quinn. This is why they re-signed him, they're not paying him to compete for the job, they're paying him to be the man...for this year. The only way he's replaced is if the Browns are out of the race.Legacy, there is not "a ton tied up in both players," DA is due $5 mil + incentives, Quinn for $2 mil (as long as he stays on the bench) + incentives. This is far less than most other NFL teams, Quinn's bank account doesn't begin to bank until he starts to play, he is cheaper on the bench than other such studs like Cleo Lemon and Trent Green. And before I am categorized as a DA backer, I'd prefer Quinn...we just couldn't get enough value for DA on the trade market.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Scott,What are your projections for him? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your points, but I already have tempered expectations for the guy. I don't think too many people are going to have him ranked in the top 15 anyway. If he falls below QB20, I'll nab him but I wouldn't take him much higher than that. If you mean he's already tracking as a top 10 guy, then I agree with you.

A) Why do people do the first name thing around here? If he wanted to be called Scott his monkier would be Scott Legacy.B) Anderson's ADP in wsl was QB6. QB15...where having napping RVW.

Well Doug, maybe it's because they know each other...

 

[Team Legacy]

One issue that hasn't been brought up yet is the Jamal Lewis factor.

Jamal averaged a whopping 116 YPG during that last 6 games of the season so somebody mentioned that, well, Derek was just, taking what the defenses were giving him. They keyed on him which opened up the run for Jamal. I'm not disputing that, but it still didn't result in better than a 3-2 record over those 5 games against SUB PAR competition - Wins against the Jets, Bills and Niners, losses to Arizona and Cincy.

Cleveland will demand wins from their QB, and the schedule doesn't look as comfy this year.

 

[Pictus Cat]

DA will be the starter as long as the Browns are in any sort of playoff contention, he won't be benched unless the season can be considered a lost cause at some point. Why should you believe this opinion? Rex Grossman, that's all.

If they think Quinn is better, wouldn't they want to go into the playoffs with him.

Listen to the sound bites from Romeo and Phil from the last 6 weeks, DA is their guy in 08 regardless of what they think about Quinn. This is why they re-signed him, they're not paying him to compete for the job, they're paying him to be the man...for this year. The only way he's replaced is if the Browns are out of the race.Legacy, there is not "a ton tied up in both players," DA is due $5 mil + incentives, Quinn for $2 mil (as long as he stays on the bench) + incentives. This is far less than most other NFL teams, Quinn's bank account doesn't begin to bank until he starts to play, he is cheaper on the bench than other such studs like Cleo Lemon and Trent Green. And before I am categorized as a DA backer, I'd prefer Quinn...we just couldn't get enough value for DA on the trade market.

You can't fix stupid.Excellent post. Browns have both QBs at good value, want to win the superbowl, and don't start and develop their best QB.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

So many things since you have switched your take from slamming DA for a trend of last year to taking a shot at what you say is overpaying two QBs to shots at the Browns being considered a top six team in the AFC to taking shots at the Browns for not benching DA and starting Quinn. So what is your take exactly? How about the supporting cast arguement.

I agree that he's SURROUNDED by talent, which is why the coaching staff MUST DEMAND performance. Granted, when you sign somebody to a ton of money, you don't just cut and run, but let's look real quick at the difference.

Braylon Edwards never did anything until Derek Anderson took over at QB. Jamal Lewis was considered a bust in Baltimore who disguarded him. He had a rookie OLT and a four new starting O-Linemen. He was a replacement and won ten of his fifteen starts. The talent that you say he was SURROUNDED with consisted of TE KWII as the only proven commodity before he took over. So he was instrumental in helping Braylon and company realize their abilities. Joe Thomas wouldn't have made the Pro Bowl if Charlie Frye was still QBing the team. Frye took six sacks in less than two quarters. Once DA took over the line only gave up 14 sacks over the rest of the 15 games and over two quarters of the first contest when DA was put in take over for the in-effective Frye. DA played a huge role in stepping up into the pocket that the line was creating and also in using his quick release to keep from getting sacked. So you've got it backasswards. DA wasn't surrounded by talent that was considered Pro Bowlers until he took over at QB. How about the contract rant?

Derk Anderson: $26 million total, including $14.5 million guaranteedBrady Quinn: $20 million total, $30 million possible with incentives, $7.75 million guaranteed.

Five years for Quinn with $7.75 million guaranteed over those five years or $1.55 million guaranteed over the life of the contract on base salaries that are negligble. The incentives have already been missed for last year and this year he has to sit six games to miss out on every penny of the remaining $8 million in start incentives. So Quinn won't start six games unless DA gets hurt or simply implodes. I don't count on either of those things happening YMMV.

There's a ton tied up in both, and winning doesn't care who you are, just win and you play. It really all comes down to that. If he doesn't WIN and WIN consistently, the fans nor the coaching staff can afford to wait. They want the playoffs, which BTW, they didn't earn last year with DA.

Their isn't a ton of money tied up in both. You are wrong. So the contract rant has no substance. How about the trend rant?You discount weather but don't. Look how DA faired with his stats against the QB's he faced off in the same horrible conditions down the stretch. Make sure to compare with Quinn who got PT in the last game and didn't complete half of his passes. Address the Browns new OC who never gets questioned by some who think he walks on water. He had DA throwing on first down in poor weather games when veteran opposing OCs switched to run-control-conservative offenses. He was new and he should improve. Also historically all QBs tend to make significant improvements in completion percentate, i.e., accuracy from their first to second years starting. The biggest knock of DA is accuracy and it is very reasonable that he should improve his accuracy. Also it is reasonable that his OC should improve because he goes into the offseason knowing what his QB and his O-Line and his RB etc can do and what they can't do. Last year he didn't even know who his QB was going to be but a QB switch was expected but not to DA. The new addition of Stallworth afforeds the Browns a legit three-wide offense since KWII is moved all over the field to create mismatches and acts as a WR. If the Browns land pass catching third down back the offense would have a new dymention. But Stallworth should be an improvement. Joe J. went to Savage/Crennel and told them that he was wearing down at the end of the yaer and couldn't handle the second WR role any longer and he felt he'd be far more effective as the third down/slot WR. He would as he caught over 35 of his 67 (?) passes on third down. Putting Donte as the second WR does all sorts of thing to open up the offense. I'm sorry but your anti-DA rant is lacking in, fact, accuracy, and substance.

Cleveland is improved, they're young, talented and they're flat out good. Good is one thing, but Top 6 in the AFC is another.

I thought you had a player take but now you have switched to take shots at the Browns? Hmmn funny how you use the argument that the Browns faced inferior teams last year but then turn around and now say they shouldn't be considered one of the better teams in the AFC.Never saw that one coming.

 

[radballs]

Scott,What are your projections for him? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your points, but I already have tempered expectations for the guy. I don't think too many people are going to have him ranked in the top 15 anyway. If he falls below QB20, I'll nab him but I wouldn't take him much higher than that. If you mean he's already tracking as a top 10 guy, then I agree with you.

A) Why do people do the first name thing around here? If he wanted to be called Scott his monkier would be Scott Legacy.B) Anderson's ADP in wsl was QB6. QB15...where having napping RVW.

A) I think Ollie used my first name because... Um.. because we know each other? lol... B) This is what I saw and based my Bust pick on this ADP. I can't take him higher than Roth, Hasselback, McNabb, Cutler, or Eli, so that means best case scenario he's outside my Top 10. With Rivers, Young and Kitna, who are all in safer situations, he might slip to QB15. Now, knowing the potential upside, sure he may be worth a QB pick somewhere around here, but my gut still tells me he busts when we look at the year end totals.

Yeah, I hadn't even checked his ADP in the WSLs, but he's going much higher than where I'd take him so I don't see him being on many of my teams in '08.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I seem to have misplaced by Philip Rivers bookmark....

I thought about Rivers, but with DA's ADP off the charts, he was really a no-brainer. Rivers is at least being drafted reasonably.

Good posting.Rivers is a modern day FF version of Aikman, a nice solid backup.The jury is still out on DA and his ADP will prevent him from being on any of my teams

I was being facetious - sorry, should have been more demonstrative about it.Rivers is fine where he's considered, a strong QB2 with QB1 potential on occasion.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

With that Oline improving, Stallworth, Winslow, Braylon, Joe J in the slot, and Jamal Lewis back in form....plus probably another RB in the draft how can he fail?

I agree that he's SURROUNDED by talent, which is why the coaching staff MUST DEMAND performance. Granted, when you sign somebody to a ton of money, you don't just cut and run, but let's look real quick at the difference.

Derk Anderson: $26 million total, including $14.5 million guaranteed

Brady Quinn: $20 million total, $30 million possible with incentives, $7.75 million guaranteed.

There's a ton tied up in both, and winning doesn't care who you are, just win and you play. It really all comes down to that. If he doesn't WIN and WIN consistently, the fans nor the coaching staff can afford to wait. They want the playoffs, which BTW, they didn't earn last year with DA.

Cleveland is improved, they're young, talented and they're flat out good. Good is one thing, but Top 6 in the AFC is another.

Whoa, whoa.... hold the phone here.Let's take a look at the contract for Quinn.

He signed a $9.25M contract that had $7.75M in guarantees.



Another $11M is AVAILABLE THROUGH ESCALATORS for 2010 and 2011 which ONLY KICKS IN IF HE GETS AT LEAST 55% OF THE QB SNAPS IN EACH OF HIS FIRST 2 SEASONS (2007, 2008) OR AT LEAST 70% IN YEAR 3 (2009).

His base salary:

2008: $370K + Roster bonus of $4.3M

2009: $655K

2010: $700K

2011: $700K

So he's getting $4.67M for 2008 but he won't get anywhere close to any escalation until 2009 most likely - and that's only if DA is injured.

Quinn has been considered a cheap backup, and rightly so if you dig into this contract. It's under $5.5M for two years assuming he's a backup for 2008 and 2009.

When in doubt, follow the money.

 

[Team Legacy]

So many things since you have switched your take from slamming DA for a trend of last year to taking a shot at what you say is overpaying two QBs to shots at the Browns being considered a top six team in the AFC to taking shots at the Browns for not benching DA and starting Quinn. So what is your take exactly? How about the supporting cast arguement.

I agree that he's SURROUNDED by talent, which is why the coaching staff MUST DEMAND performance. Granted, when you sign somebody to a ton of money, you don't just cut and run, but let's look real quick at the difference.

Braylon Edwards never did anything until Derek Anderson took over at QB. Jamal Lewis was considered a bust in Baltimore who disguarded him. He had a rookie OLT and a four new starting O-Linemen. He was a replacement and won ten of his fifteen starts. The talent that you say he was SURROUNDED with consisted of TE KWII as the only proven commodity before he took over. So he was instrumental in helping Braylon and company realize their abilities. Joe Thomas wouldn't have made the Pro Bowl if Charlie Frye was still QBing the team. Frye took six sacks in less than two quarters. Once DA took over the line only gave up 14 sacks over the rest of the 15 games and over two quarters of the first contest when DA was put in take over for the in-effective Frye. DA played a huge role in stepping up into the pocket that the line was creating and also in using his quick release to keep from getting sacked. So you've got it backasswards. DA wasn't surrounded by talent that was considered Pro Bowlers until he took over at QB. How about the contract rant?

Derk Anderson: $26 million total, including $14.5 million guaranteedBrady Quinn: $20 million total, $30 million possible with incentives, $7.75 million guaranteed.

Five years for Quinn with $7.75 million guaranteed over those five years or $1.55 million guaranteed over the life of the contract on base salaries that are negligble. The incentives have already been missed for last year and this year he has to sit six games to miss out on every penny of the remaining $8 million in start incentives. So Quinn won't start six games unless DA gets hurt or simply implodes. I don't count on either of those things happening YMMV.

There's a ton tied up in both, and winning doesn't care who you are, just win and you play. It really all comes down to that. If he doesn't WIN and WIN consistently, the fans nor the coaching staff can afford to wait. They want the playoffs, which BTW, they didn't earn last year with DA.

Their isn't a ton of money tied up in both. You are wrong. So the contract rant has no substance. How about the trend rant?You discount weather but don't. Look how DA faired with his stats against the QB's he faced off in the same horrible conditions down the stretch. Make sure to compare with Quinn who got PT in the last game and didn't complete half of his passes. Address the Browns new OC who never gets questioned by some who think he walks on water. He had DA throwing on first down in poor weather games when veteran opposing OCs switched to run-control-conservative offenses. He was new and he should improve. Also historically all QBs tend to make significant improvements in completion percentate, i.e., accuracy from their first to second years starting. The biggest knock of DA is accuracy and it is very reasonable that he should improve his accuracy. Also it is reasonable that his OC should improve because he goes into the offseason knowing what his QB and his O-Line and his RB etc can do and what they can't do. Last year he didn't even know who his QB was going to be but a QB switch was expected but not to DA. The new addition of Stallworth afforeds the Browns a legit three-wide offense since KWII is moved all over the field to create mismatches and acts as a WR. If the Browns land pass catching third down back the offense would have a new dymention. But Stallworth should be an improvement. Joe J. went to Savage/Crennel and told them that he was wearing down at the end of the yaer and couldn't handle the second WR role any longer and he felt he'd be far more effective as the third down/slot WR. He would as he caught over 35 of his 67 (?) passes on third down. Putting Donte as the second WR does all sorts of thing to open up the offense. I'm sorry but your anti-DA rant is lacking in, fact, accuracy, and substance.

Cleveland is improved, they're young, talented and they're flat out good. Good is one thing, but Top 6 in the AFC is another.

I thought you had a player take but now you have switched to take shots at the Browns? Hmmn funny how you use the argument that the Browns faced inferior teams last year but then turn around and now say they shouldn't be considered one of the better teams in the AFC.Never saw that one coming.

Don't know where to begin with this one. You call my Bust post a RANT, but this is 10 times more a rant than mine is. I'm limited on time right now but two questions. 1. Do you think DA will live up to his ADP of QB6? 2. What size is your Cleveland Browns jersey in your closet?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Scott,What are your projections for him? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your points, but I already have tempered expectations for the guy. I don't think too many people are going to have him ranked in the top 15 anyway. If he falls below QB20, I'll nab him but I wouldn't take him much higher than that. If you mean he's already tracking as a top 10 guy, then I agree with you.

A) Why do people do the first name thing around here? If he wanted to be called Scott his monkier would be Scott Legacy.B) Anderson's ADP in wsl was QB6. QB15...where having napping RVW.

A) I think Ollie used my first name because... Um.. because we know each other? lol... B) This is what I saw and based my Bust pick on this ADP. I can't take him higher than Roth, Hasselback, McNabb, Cutler, or Eli, so that means best case scenario he's outside my Top 10. With Rivers, Young and Kitna, who are all in safer situations, he might slip to QB15. Now, knowing the potential upside, sure he may be worth a QB pick somewhere around here, but my gut still tells me he busts when we look at the year end totals.

Yeah, I hadn't even checked his ADP in the WSLs, but he's going much higher than where I'd take him so I don't see him being on many of my teams in '08.

Keep in mind that WSLs are Best Ball, not weekly starts. That matters for QBs. DA can have some very big games and then a few clunkers, which you really don't care much about if you have a decent QB2 option. For a weekly starting option that might be as attractive as a (perceived) more consistent performer.Digging deeper, though, DA had 20+ FPs 6 games, 12-20 8 times, and 1 game below 12. That's pretty good.

 

[radballs]

Scott,What are your projections for him? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your points, but I already have tempered expectations for the guy. I don't think too many people are going to have him ranked in the top 15 anyway. If he falls below QB20, I'll nab him but I wouldn't take him much higher than that. If you mean he's already tracking as a top 10 guy, then I agree with you.

A) Why do people do the first name thing around here? If he wanted to be called Scott his monkier would be Scott Legacy.B) Anderson's ADP in wsl was QB6. QB15...where having napping RVW.

A) I think Ollie used my first name because... Um.. because we know each other? lol... B) This is what I saw and based my Bust pick on this ADP. I can't take him higher than Roth, Hasselback, McNabb, Cutler, or Eli, so that means best case scenario he's outside my Top 10. With Rivers, Young and Kitna, who are all in safer situations, he might slip to QB15. Now, knowing the potential upside, sure he may be worth a QB pick somewhere around here, but my gut still tells me he busts when we look at the year end totals.

Yeah, I hadn't even checked his ADP in the WSLs, but he's going much higher than where I'd take him so I don't see him being on many of my teams in '08.

Keep in mind that WSLs are Best Ball, not weekly starts. That matters for QBs. DA can have some very big games and then a few clunkers, which you really don't care much about if you have a decent QB2 option. For a weekly starting option that might be as attractive as a (perceived) more consistent performer.Digging deeper, though, DA had 20+ FPs 6 games, 12-20 8 times, and 1 game below 12. That's pretty good.

Point taken regarding his potential for big games. On the flip side, in a best ball format league I'd almost think his ADP would be lower because of the risk that he loses his job to Quinn sometime during the year. Or, you just plan to use an extra late round pick on Quinn to corner the Cleveland QB market but then it is costing you an extra pick.

 

[Team Legacy]

So many things since you have switched your take from slamming DA for a trend of last year

Yes, the 9 weeks of the season is more than a little alarming and more than a trend.

to taking a shot at what you say is overpaying two QBs

Never said they were overpaid, let's not be overly sensitive.

to shots at the Browns being considered a top six team in the AFC

Not a shot, its a fact, they weren't a playoff team. Doesn't bother me, I could care less. I'm talking Fantasy Football and reasons why DA won't accumulate a full 16 weeks worth of stats. Sorry your fanship is offended.

to taking shots at the Browns for not benching DA and starting Quinn.

Never said they should have, just predicting that they will.

So what is your take exactly?

My take is pretty clear. I will not draft DA as QB6 and see him more as a QB15 type pick.

 

[EBF]

DA is a solid pick in a redraft if you pair him with Quinn. Whoever helms that offense is going to put up some pretty good numbers.

I don't like him as a dynasty pickup though. I think he's a mediocre player. Mediocre players with talented backups are a recipe for disaster in a dynasty league. It's true that Quinn may never amount to much, but I think the Browns are going to plateau at about 8-10 wins with Anderson. I don't see him ever being a guy who takes you to the Super Bowl in the AFC. So with that being the case, I think Quinn gets a shot. For me it's not a matter of "if", but "when." Of course, I'll be singing a different tune if DA is lights out in 2008. I don't expect that to happen though.

 

[FUBAR]

I was looking at DA's game logs the other day. I find it very interesting.

Just look at his rating by game for the first 8 weeks: 65, 121, 57, 109, 59, 142, BYE, 143

He then levels off, with two games at 83 as his high.

Looking at those big games, the best defense he did well against, Baltimore - ranked #6 overall, but #20 against the pass.

He's way too inconsistent, has more talented competition IMO, and usually gets drafted too high. The team should provide for FF stats, but will he be the QB getting them?

cough....weather....cough

And like I mentioned in another thread....unless they plan on building a dome before the season starts you can expect the same dropoff again.I wouldn't want the guy as my QB1, but a solid backup that you could insert to exploit certain matchups.

Really? The weather argument?I was in Cincinnati on December 23, it was pretty good football weather.

Do you honestly think the weather will be better for Anderson this year?

I agree, if I can draft him QB13-24, I'm on it. Too bad he doesn't last that long often.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Keep in mind that WSLs are Best Ball, not weekly starts. That matters for QBs. DA can have some very big games and then a few clunkers, which you really don't care much about if you have a decent QB2 option. For a weekly starting option that might be as attractive as a (perceived) more consistent performer.Digging deeper, though, DA had 20+ FPs 6 games, 12-20 8 times, and 1 game below 12. That's pretty good.

Point taken regarding his potential for big games. On the flip side, in a best ball format league I'd almost think his ADP would be lower because of the risk that he loses his job to Quinn sometime during the year. Or, you just plan to use an extra late round pick on Quinn to corner the Cleveland QB market but then it is costing you an extra pick.

That's what I did in WSL4, but with 20 picks (rather than 18) that's not as hefty a price to pay.CLE is a pretty good passing offense to lock up.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Per ranter,

Yes, the 9 weeks of the season is more than a little alarming and more than a trend.

Alarming trend? What would say about a QB who had six games of a QB rating over 100 in his first eight games last year but only one the last eight games? A QB who threw for 8 less TDs, took 11 more sacks, and lost 5 of his last eight games but then was rewarded with a contract exceeding $100 million with $36 million in guarantees. Oh yeah, he only threw 3 more TDs than DA and last year wasn't his first starting in the league. He also nearly killed himself two years ago and his contract has seriuosly impacted his team's ability to sign free agents. His offensive line is in shambles and he just lost his best O-Lineman. But we don't want to put things into context. Instead lets just look at DA in a vaccum and not look at other QBs. Lets not look at how DA faced up in direct competition over that same time that you say he trended downward. Naw. That might weaker your cherry picked case.

Never said they were overpaid, let's not be overly sensitive.

You wanna clarify this statement that has already been shown to be innacurate? There's a ton tied up in both,

Not a shot, its a fact, they weren't a playoff team. Doesn't bother me, I could care less. I'm talking Fantasy Football and reasons why DA won't accumulate a full 16 weeks worth of stats. Sorry your fanship is offended.

So the Browns did not make the playoffs last year so that means right now they aren't considered one of the top six teams in the AFC? Or do you think last year is a fact on how things will go this year? Fantasy football? OK, don't draft DA makes no difference to me.

Never said they should have, just predicting that they will.

I can pretty much guarantee that Quinn won't win the starting job in camp unless DA gets hurt or implodes and I don't see that happening. Also Quinn won't get any chance to start for at least six games as I and others have pointed out the last portion of his incentives are tied up in with starts over the first two seasons. He has already missed out on nearly $2 million of the potential extra $10. Now, after DA signed his extention you can expect Anderson to start at the very least six games unless he gets hurt.

My take is pretty clear. I will not draft DA as QB6 and see him more as a QB15 type pick.

I'm pretty sure I won't lose any sleep over you undervaluing Derek Anderson.

 

[Team Legacy]

Per ranter,

Yes, the 9 weeks of the season is more than a little alarming and more than a trend.

Alarming trend? What would say about a QB who had six games of a QB rating over 100 in his first eight games last year but only one the last eight games? A QB who threw for 8 less TDs, took 11 more sacks, and lost 5 of his last eight games but then was rewarded with a contract exceeding $100 million with $36 million in guarantees. Oh yeah, he only threw 3 more TDs than DA and last year wasn't his first starting in the league. He also nearly killed himself two years ago and his contract has seriuosly impacted his team's ability to sign free agents. His offensive line is in shambles and he just lost his best O-Lineman. But we don't want to put things into context. Instead lets just look at DA in a vaccum and not look at other QBs. Lets not look at how DA faced up in direct competition over that same time that you say he trended downward. Naw. That might weaker your cherry picked case.

Never said they were overpaid, let's not be overly sensitive.

You wanna clarify this statement that has already been shown to be innacurate? There's a ton tied up in both,

Not a shot, its a fact, they weren't a playoff team. Doesn't bother me, I could care less. I'm talking Fantasy Football and reasons why DA won't accumulate a full 16 weeks worth of stats. Sorry your fanship is offended.

So the Browns did not make the playoffs last year so that means right now they aren't considered one of the top six teams in the AFC? Or do you think last year is a fact on how things will go this year? Fantasy football? OK, don't draft DA makes no difference to me.

Never said they should have, just predicting that they will.

I can pretty much guarantee that Quinn won't win the starting job in camp unless DA gets hurt or implodes and I don't see that happening. Also Quinn won't get any chance to start for at least six games as I and others have pointed out the last portion of his incentives are tied up in with starts over the first two seasons. He has already missed out on nearly $2 million of the potential extra $10. Now, after DA signed his extention you can expect Anderson to start at the very least six games unless he gets hurt.

My take is pretty clear. I will not draft DA as QB6 and see him more as a QB15 type pick.

I'm pretty sure I won't lose any sleep over you undervaluing Derek Anderson.

Has there ever been a more clear cut case of MAN LOVE ??? Sorry that I didn't pick on Roth. He's had a much longer window of success than your boy.

 

[FUBAR]

Per ranter,

Yes, the 9 weeks of the season is more than a little alarming and more than a trend.

Alarming trend? What would say about a QB who had six games of a QB rating over 100 in his first eight games last year but only one the last eight games? A QB who threw for 8 less TDs, took 11 more sacks, and lost 5 of his last eight games but then was rewarded with a contract exceeding $100 million with $36 million in guarantees. Oh yeah, he only threw 3 more TDs than DA and last year wasn't his first starting in the league. He also nearly killed himself two years ago and his contract has seriuosly impacted his team's ability to sign free agents. His offensive line is in shambles and he just lost his best O-Lineman. But we don't want to put things into context. Instead lets just look at DA in a vaccum and not look at other QBs. Lets not look at how DA faced up in direct competition over that same time that you say he trended downward. Naw. That might weaker your cherry picked case.

Never said they were overpaid, let's not be overly sensitive.

You wanna clarify this statement that has already been shown to be innacurate? There's a ton tied up in both,

Not a shot, its a fact, they weren't a playoff team. Doesn't bother me, I could care less. I'm talking Fantasy Football and reasons why DA won't accumulate a full 16 weeks worth of stats. Sorry your fanship is offended.

So the Browns did not make the playoffs last year so that means right now they aren't considered one of the top six teams in the AFC? Or do you think last year is a fact on how things will go this year? Fantasy football? OK, don't draft DA makes no difference to me.

Never said they should have, just predicting that they will.

I can pretty much guarantee that Quinn won't win the starting job in camp unless DA gets hurt or implodes and I don't see that happening. Also Quinn won't get any chance to start for at least six games as I and others have pointed out the last portion of his incentives are tied up in with starts over the first two seasons. He has already missed out on nearly $2 million of the potential extra $10. Now, after DA signed his extention you can expect Anderson to start at the very least six games unless he gets hurt.

My take is pretty clear. I will not draft DA as QB6 and see him more as a QB15 type pick.

I'm pretty sure I won't lose any sleep over you undervaluing Derek Anderson.

Has there ever been a more clear cut case of MAN LOVE ??? Sorry that I didn't pick on Roth. He's had a much longer window of success than your boy.

FWIW, if the Steelers backup QB was a high pick, whom the franchise traded up for, and Ben hadn't won a Super Bowl and have one of the best records ever, Ben's owners should be concerned.

 

[ericttspikes]

DA is a solid pick in a redraft if you pair him with Quinn. Whoever helms that offense is going to put up some pretty good numbers.I don't like him as a dynasty pickup though. I think he's a mediocre player. Mediocre players with talented backups are a recipe for disaster in a dynasty league. It's true that Quinn may never amount to much, but I think the Browns are going to plateau at about 8-10 wins with Anderson. I don't see him ever being a guy who takes you to the Super Bowl in the AFC. So with that being the case, I think Quinn gets a shot. For me it's not a matter of "if", but "when." Of course, I'll be singing a different tune if DA is lights out in 2008. I don't expect that to happen though.

This is what I'm thinking. I don't really think the question is if Anderson is a boom or bust guy, but rather if the Cleveland O is for real or not. If it is, getting Anderson and Quinn on the cheap should lead to some nice numbers regardless. I didn't watch enough of Cleveland to have a feeling about Anderson, but on paper this team is loaded.

 

[eric rymer]

I was looking at DA's game logs the other day. I find it very interesting.

Just look at his rating by game for the first 8 weeks: 65, 121, 57, 109, 59, 142, BYE, 143

He then levels off, with two games at 83 as his high.

Looking at those big games, the best defense he did well against, Baltimore - ranked #6 overall, but #20 against the pass.

He's way too inconsistent, has more talented competition IMO, and usually gets drafted too high. The team should provide for FF stats, but will he be the QB getting them?

cough....weather....cough

And like I mentioned in another thread....unless they plan on building a dome before the season starts you can expect the same dropoff again.I wouldn't want the guy as my QB1, but a solid backup that you could insert to exploit certain matchups.

Really? The weather argument?I was in Cincinnati on December 23, it was pretty good football weather.

Do you honestly think the weather will be better for Anderson this year?

I agree, if I can draft him QB13-24, I'm on it. Too bad he doesn't last that long often.

exactly. I hate the weather arguement. It's Cleveland....it's Lake Erie. We've come to expect that our weather is going to be bad if there is a home game later in the season. I think Anderson is a good value if taken as QB 13-24 which means he'll be your QB2 in most leagues. I'd be happy with him there and wouldn't really label him a bust candidate. I think if anyone is expecting a top 5 performance, they might need to reevaluate their rankings. I think it is reasonable to think he will be better than last year since he'll be getting first team reps all summer. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and I'll be rooting for him every week.

 

[delusional]

With that Oline improving, Stallworth, Winslow, Braylon, Joe J in the slot, and Jamal Lewis back in form....plus probably another RB in the draft how can he fail?

Before free agency i would agree with being a bust but this offseason they loaded up nicely.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Scott,What are your projections for him? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your points, but I already have tempered expectations for the guy. I don't think too many people are going to have him ranked in the top 15 anyway. If he falls below QB20, I'll nab him but I wouldn't take him much higher than that. If you mean he's already tracking as a top 10 guy, then I agree with you.

Hey Ollie, I think many on this board have Anderson as a top 10, even top 7 or 8 for dynasty and redraft.

 

[BassNBrew]

Scott,What are your projections for him? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your points, but I already have tempered expectations for the guy. I don't think too many people are going to have him ranked in the top 15 anyway. If he falls below QB20, I'll nab him but I wouldn't take him much higher than that. If you mean he's already tracking as a top 10 guy, then I agree with you.

A) Why do people do the first name thing around here? If he wanted to be called Scott his monkier would be Scott Legacy.B) Anderson's ADP in wsl was QB6. QB15...where having napping RVW.

Well Doug, maybe it's because they know each other...

Fair enough Poindexter.

 

[Pictus Cat]

Does the hypothetical conversation go like this...

Coach, who is our best QB?

Anderson did very well last season, but

Quinn has more ability and needs time to develop it.

Coach, who should we start in 08?

Starting Quinn would allow him to get experience and develop his ability to give the team the best chance to go to the playoffs and deeper.

But coach, we might have to pay some incentives if he starts and we're the Clevelend Browns.

What do you want me to do? Start the capable back-up and not develop the future and best chance to win in the playoffs?

I'm glad we're on the same page coach.

 

[MAC_32]

Does the hypothetical conversation go like this...

Coach, who is our best QB?

Anderson did very well last season, but

Quinn has more ability and needs time to develop it.

Coach, who should we start in 08?

Starting Quinn would allow him to get experience and develop his ability to give the team the best chance to go to the playoffs and deeper.

But coach, we might have to pay some incentives if he starts and we're the Clevelend Browns.

What do you want me to do? Start the capable back-up and not develop the future and best chance to win in the playoffs?

I'm glad we're on the same page coach.

My Gawd, I see we're going to be dealing with this for the next six months, I'm not tired of it yet so I'll keep saying it until you all get it. Listen to the soundbites from Romeo and Savage from the last 6 weeks, notably soon after the DA signing. He is the starting QB, there is no competition. You, and many others, obviously have not. The problem is you, and many others, are talking like they know; you don't. It's reminiscent of that commercial on ESPN last year of that guy talking out of his ###. Whether you believe DA is better than Quinn, Quinn is better than DA, they both suck, they're both Gods, Quinn is sleeping with Romeo's wife, DA is gay, your Brady Quinn posters on your wall told you 'I am starting,' or Bernie Kosar is in a never-ending alcoholic haze (sorry Bern, you sound drunk everytime I hear your voice) DA will still be the opening day starter. Now. Speculate all you want that DA will implode and Quinn will be starting by midseason, I disagree but you're entitled to your opinion.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Does the hypothetical conversation go like this...

Coach, who is our best QB?

Anderson did very well last season, but

Quinn has more ability and needs time to develop it.

Coach, who should we start in 08?

Starting Quinn would allow him to get experience and develop his ability to give the team the best chance to go to the playoffs and deeper.

But coach, we might have to pay some incentives if he starts and we're the Clevelend Browns.

What do you want me to do? Start the capable back-up and not develop the future and best chance to win in the playoffs?

I'm glad we're on the same page coach.

My Gawd, I see we're going to be dealing with this for the next six months, I'm not tired of it yet so I'll keep saying it until you all get it. Listen to the soundbites from Romeo and Savage from the last 6 weeks, notably soon after the DA signing. He is the starting QB, there is no competition. You, and many others, obviously have not. The problem is you, and many others, are talking like they know; you don't. It's reminiscent of that commercial on ESPN last year of that guy talking out of his ###. Whether you believe DA is better than Quinn, Quinn is better than DA, they both suck, they're both Gods, Quinn is sleeping with Romeo's wife, DA is gay, your Brady Quinn posters on your wall told you 'I am starting,' or Bernie Kosar is in a never-ending alcoholic haze (sorry Bern, you sound drunk everytime I hear your voice) DA will still be the opening day starter. Now. Speculate all you want that DA will implode and Quinn will be starting by midseason, I disagree but you're entitled to your opinion.

I'm singling this post out, but it's not the only one here.Discussions are welcome, but this is heading in a bad direction.

Feel free to talk about the + and - of the CLE QB situation, but there's no need to go down the road of the items in bold.

 

[MAC_32]

Does the hypothetical conversation go like this...

Coach, who is our best QB?

Anderson did very well last season, but

Quinn has more ability and needs time to develop it.

Coach, who should we start in 08?

Starting Quinn would allow him to get experience and develop his ability to give the team the best chance to go to the playoffs and deeper.

But coach, we might have to pay some incentives if he starts and we're the Clevelend Browns.

What do you want me to do? Start the capable back-up and not develop the future and best chance to win in the playoffs?

I'm glad we're on the same page coach.

My Gawd, I see we're going to be dealing with this for the next six months, I'm not tired of it yet so I'll keep saying it until you all get it. Listen to the soundbites from Romeo and Savage from the last 6 weeks, notably soon after the DA signing. He is the starting QB, there is no competition. You, and many others, obviously have not. The problem is you, and many others, are talking like they know; you don't. It's reminiscent of that commercial on ESPN last year of that guy talking out of his ###. Whether you believe DA is better than Quinn, Quinn is better than DA, they both suck, they're both Gods, Quinn is sleeping with Romeo's wife, DA is gay, your Brady Quinn posters on your wall told you 'I am starting,' or Bernie Kosar is in a never-ending alcoholic haze (sorry Bern, you sound drunk everytime I hear your voice) DA will still be the opening day starter. Now. Speculate all you want that DA will implode and Quinn will be starting by midseason, I disagree but you're entitled to your opinion.

I'm singling this post out, but it's not the only one here.Discussions are welcome, but this is heading in a bad direction.

Feel free to talk about the + and - of the CLE QB situation, but there's no need to go down the road of the items in bold.

Poor attempt at comic relief evidently. Apologies. Just trying to emphasize how ridiculous it is that anyone thinks Quinn has any shot at the starting job.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Does the hypothetical conversation go like this...

Coach, who is our best QB?

Anderson did very well last season, but

Quinn has more ability and needs time to develop it.

Coach, who should we start in 08?

Starting Quinn would allow him to get experience and develop his ability to give the team the best chance to go to the playoffs and deeper.

But coach, we might have to pay some incentives if he starts and we're the Clevelend Browns.

What do you want me to do? Start the capable back-up and not develop the future and best chance to win in the playoffs?

I'm glad we're on the same page coach.

My Gawd, I see we're going to be dealing with this for the next six months, I'm not tired of it yet so I'll keep saying it until you all get it. Listen to the soundbites from Romeo and Savage from the last 6 weeks, notably soon after the DA signing. He is the starting QB, there is no competition. You, and many others, obviously have not. The problem is you, and many others, are talking like they know; you don't. It's reminiscent of that commercial on ESPN last year of that guy talking out of his ###. Whether you believe DA is better than Quinn, Quinn is better than DA, they both suck, they're both Gods, Quinn is sleeping with Romeo's wife, DA is gay, your Brady Quinn posters on your wall told you 'I am starting,' or Bernie Kosar is in a never-ending alcoholic haze (sorry Bern, you sound drunk everytime I hear your voice) DA will still be the opening day starter. Now. Speculate all you want that DA will implode and Quinn will be starting by midseason, I disagree but you're entitled to your opinion.

I'm singling this post out, but it's not the only one here.Discussions are welcome, but this is heading in a bad direction.

Feel free to talk about the + and - of the CLE QB situation, but there's no need to go down the road of the items in bold.

Poor attempt at comic relief evidently. Apologies. Just trying to emphasize how ridiculous it is that anyone thinks Quinn has any shot at the starting job.

It's ok - just trying to keep the SP going in the right direction.