Team Projections: Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

[Unlucky]

I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Falcons' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/atl.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

Vick: 220/402/54.7% for 2690 and 18 TDs - 96/672/3 rushing

Dunn: 277/1219/5 and 22/165/1 rec.

Norwood: 130/689/3 and 16/128/0 rec.

Crumpler: 55/726/7

Horn: 35/508/3

Jenkins: 41/533/5

White: 33/528/2

Analysis:

Where to start? Will Vick play? At this point, I have to assume Vick will be the QB all season. Learning a new offense again will not help Vick.

How will Petrino do? This is tough question that nobody knows the answer to. However, given how poorly some other college coaches with great offensive minds have done, such as Spurrier, I have to be skeptical right now. Especially since Vick and his WRs haven't shown much of a passing game in the past.

The Falcons talent is in the running game, but will this mesh with what Petrino wants to do? I'm not sure. I'd love your analysis of the overall offensive system the Falcons will be running.

Dunn has been consistent, and is easy to project. I really like Norwood's speed, so he'll be involved a little more. Definitely one of the best #2 RBs in the league.

Crumpler is good, but still gets the dropsies sometimes. I don't like any of the WRs. Horn is too old and breaking down, plus switching teams. White and Jenkins are OK, but I don't think either is highly talented.

Finally, I think the schedule isn't easy. Opening at MIN and JAX, two teams with strong defenses. I worry that a slow start with the new coach could cause this team to implode.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Those numbers seem a little high for 32-year old Warrick Dunn. Who's also coming off one of his worst seasons in 2006.

Good work overall. I agree with everything except Dunn. Jerious Norwood's becoming a little overrated. Good to see some projections for him that are a little more down to earth.

 

[Unlucky]

I'm curious as to your age factor with Dunn. He's never been a big carry guy, so won't that help him sustain it a little longer? You are right that Dunn should be nearing the end of his career, and thus his numbers will see a drop at some point.

 

[Banger]

Those numbers seem a little high for 32-year old Warrick Dunn. Who's also coming off one of his worst seasons in 2006. Good work overall. I agree with everything except Dunn. Jerious Norwood's becoming a little overrated. Good to see some projections for him that are a little more down to earth.

I agree it may be 100 or so yards high but that's kind of splitting hairs. I agree with basic premise that as long as Dunn is on the roster he will be the primary back.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I'm curious as to your age factor with Dunn. He's never been a big carry guy, so won't that help him sustain it a little longer? You are right that Dunn should be nearing the end of his career, and thus his numbers will see a drop at some point.

Granted he hasn't had as high a workload over his 10 year career as most backs but at the same time he's also 40 pounds lighter than the average running back so I think that evens out. He just did not look good at all last season. He averaged 4 yards a carry even last season. Plus as the season progressed he seemed to play worse. He didn't have a 100 yard rushing game after week 6. And there's no telling what sort of effect his offseason shoulder surgery will have this season. With all that though I still think that Warrick Dunn will (not necessarily should) be the main ballcarrier for the Falcons in 2007. NFL coaches are loyal to a fault so if he's upright he'll somehow limp his way to another 1000 yard rushing season or close to it. I've already said it in so many ways but no I'm not high on Warrick Dunn this season.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I can buy 1300+ total yards for Dunn, but I'd expect more as a receiver and less as a rusher. Also don't sleep on him in PPR leagues.

Petrino wants Vick's completion percentage to rise, and one easy way is to adopt short passes into the offense. That means more catches for Dunn, who has had many seasons with 35+ catches (just not in the last 3 seasons), so look for that to be a bigger part of the Falcons attack this year.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Key players:

Vick: 220/402/54.7% for 2690 and 18 TDs - 96/672/3 rushing

Dunn: 277/1219/5 and 22/165/1 rec.

Norwood: 130/689/3 and 16/128/0 rec.

Crumpler: 55/726/7

Horn: 35/508/3

Jenkins: 41/533/5

White: 33/528/2

I like what you have here and the thought that you brought to it...and looking forward to my first Phenoms season! I think the Falcons shake out like this:

Dunn 229-939-5,30-213-1 1 (I have Dunn loses more carries to Norwood, for less than the 4.4 avg you have per carry)

Norwood 153-687-4, 18-126-0 (your 5.3 per carry is a bit high for me, but I can't argue after 6.3+ last season)

Horn 50-645-4 (I like Horn for more Recs, but we are pretty much in agreement the rest of the way in the WRs)

White 27-398-2

Jenkins 38-488-5

Crumpler 62-744-5

Vick 258/451-2,945-19-14 and 97-677-4 (I see him with more attempts)

Petrino is tough to figure...he was only the OC in the NFL for Jax in 2001. That team threw the ball 59% of the time, but had injury problems with FTaylor that season. That being said, they were 9th in yards per carry. What does this mean this season? I think of Petrino as a throw first coach, but that doesn't bear out in college where he consistently ran more than he threw. (ESPN)

Last season under Mora (for instance) the Falcons had 953 offensive plays. They threw the ball 417 times (44%) and ran the ball 536 times (56%). Vick ran the ball 123 times. If only 20% of those runs were called from the sidelines, you can take 98 of Vick's carries and contribute them to the pass play column....you find that Atlanta last season called 515 pass plays and 438 rush plays (the figures are only to illustrate the impact Vick has with his ability improvise on pass plays...20% is a guesstimate only). That means that Mora's offense called approximately 54% passing plays. Considering that Vick is not an accurate passer, can you envision Petrino calling a higher percentage of passing plays?

If so, how high are you willing to go? Personally, I am not willing to do that right now (maybe I will change my mind after some pre-season reports). So, I have Petrino calling pass on 55% of 960 total offensive plays (528 passing plays, 432 rush plays). Vick, inevitably will run away about 80 of these attempts. So at the end of the season, I would expect Atlanta's play distribution to look like something closer to 448 passing plays and 512 rushing plays (47% pass, 53% rush).

So if Vick gets about 100 carries, and we cast off about 6% of carries to "remnants" (guys you don't project for or the occasional reverse)...381 carries are left to share between Dunn and Norwood. I think Petrino will want to use Norwood, but I am not sure that the share of the remaining carries moves beyond 60/40 Dunn/Norwood. Overall this breaks down the rushing for the team to be: Dunn (45%), Norwood (30%), Vick (19%) and remnants get 6%. You can't expect Norwood to avg. nearly 6.4 again this season, but I expect him to be utilized in situations that are conducive to his success, so let's think closer to 4.8-4.9 per carry, with Dunn pulling in 4.1 and Vick with a conservative 7 per.

The passing game should continue to focus primarily on Crumpler. Horn should provide some leadership and I see him the greatest percentage of WR targets, but that doesn't mean much when such a poor passer is at QB. I see the target breakdown as 9% Dunn (Catch 75% at 7 per), 5% Norwood (80%@7), 20% Horn (55%@13), 16% Jenkins(52%@13, 12% RWhite (49%@15), and 25% Crumpler (57%@10).

Touchdowns are simply gut plays and trying to look historically at what has happened, and how you expect things to shake down moving forward.

Again...looking forward to the season!!

 

[jerseyh8r]

I can buy 1300+ total yards for Dunn, but I'd expect more as a receiver and less as a rusher. Also don't sleep on him in PPR leagues.Petrino wants Vick's completion percentage to rise, and one easy way is to adopt short passes into the offense. That means more catches for Dunn, who has had many seasons with 35+ catches (just not in the last 3 seasons), so look for that to be a bigger part of the Falcons attack this year.

This may be the case, but the seasons that he has coached recently, the leading RB in recs were:2001-JAX-Stacey Mack 7% of team recs2003-LOU-Lionel Gates 10% of team recs2004-LOU-Adam McCauley 8% of team recs2005-LOU-Michael Bush 8% of team recs2006-LOU-Kolby Smith 10% of team recsThese are recs too, not targets. RBs out of the backfield tend to have a better catch percentage than WRs who are usually downfield a bot more, so it is fair to assume that the target percentages are all lower than the reception percentages listed above. I am not saying that Petrino isn't capable of changing his play-calling to suit Vick, just saying that I am going to have a tough time projecting Dunn into the 35+ recs area until I see something in the preseason to validate it.

 

[Unlucky]

Nice breakdown jerseyh8r! Thanks for the input!