Team Projections Baltimore Ravens (1 Viewer)

[Unlucky]

I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Ravens' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/bal.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

McNair: 296/475/62.3% for 3300/20 with 40/120/1 rushing

McGahee: 332/1278/8 and 24/180/0

Heap: 74/814/6

Mason: 69/828/3

Clayton: 72/994/7

Analysis:

McGahee isn't much of an upgrade over Lewis, albeit still an upgrade. His career best YPC is 4.0, which is mediocre. He should get a lot of carries, but since he's not a threat to score from anywhere, his TDs will likely be single digits. Don't get too excited about him with the new scenery.

McNair should be similar to last year, although with a slightly tougher schedule (at least facing harder offenses, thus more shootouts) the Ravens could be passing a little bit more late in games.

Clayton showed nice improvement last year, but I have a hard time seeing him make a huge jump this year because Heap and Mason are still there. For Clayton's numbers to really climb, Mason would have to disappear, and I don't think that will happen. I see this like the situation with the Giants. Burress couldn't get too many targets because Toomer and Shockey were still there, even if he was the most talented receiver.

As I mentioned before, the Ravens face some strong offenses with the Steelers, Bengals, NFC West, Indy, SD, and NE. The D will be tested, and is not likely to perform like last season. The more I think about it, the more I think BAL could end up passing more often. Perhaps I'll bump the passing game numbers a little bit more.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Very similar numbers to what I would expect...I think they look good as they are. I think that facing strong offenses might hurt the Balt DEF from a fantasy perspective, but I don't think that this is a defense that is going to be in a bunch of shoot-outs either. They are still that good. And I think Billick is smart enough to know that if he can run the ball, they control the outcome of the game (as evidenced by him running greater than 50% of the time in 2003 and 2004 when the talent allowed for it). I wouldn't tweak your passing numbers too much...I think you will be looking at something much closer to a 50/50 pass/rush play-calling scheme (which your numbers reflect).