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Team Projections: Buffalo Bills (1 Viewer)

Unlucky

Phenom
I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Bills' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/buf.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

Losman: 283/460/61.5% for 3338/20 with 35/140/1 rushing

Lynch: 260/1066/5 and 45/351/1

Thomas: 120/420/4 and 10/65/0

Evans: 90/1395/8

Price: 52/546/3

Analysis:

Losman put up impressive numbers last year in terms of Comp% and YPA. I see more pass attempts this year for him, so a slight uptick in his overall numbers. I was quite skeptical of his abilities going into last year, so I was surprised to see his averages so high.

Lynch should be better than Anthony Thomas. Thomas just isn't good. Therefore, I see Lynch getting a lot more carries, and with his versatility, a lot of receptions as well. Lynch isn't as good as Reggie Bush, but Thomas isn't nearly as good as McAllister. Jauron said he would use RBBC unless one guy emerges. My guess is that Lynch emerges, but it's something to keep an eye on. When in doubt, go with talent, and Lynch has more talent than Thomas.

Lee Evans is good - he just had a hiccup in year 2 with Losman learning to play QB. I see even more improvement for Evans this year, as Buffalo will be behind a lot and have to throw. The rest of the WRs are mediocre at best, but should each see some action. Royal is nothing special at TE, but he'll get a few targets.

The Bills have a tough schedule, except weeks 13 to 16, which may be the perfect time to have Lynch in your lineup. First 8 games: DEN, @PIT, @NE, NYJ, DAL, BAL, NYJ, CIN. Yikes! 3-5 would be impressive. Even the next 3 weeks, @MIA, NE, and @JAX won't be easy. @WAS, MIA, @CLE, and NYG should be a little softer in weeks 13 to 16.

 
I wouldn't bother projecting anything for Shaud Williams. I'll be very surprised if he even makes the team. I think Dwayne Wright could get at least 30 to 40 touches and a TD or two though. 260 carries for Lynch seems high to me. 1 catch for Kevin Everett? Bills will use an H-back this year instead of a fullback so those players (Neufeld, Cieslack, maybe Everett) will likely get a couple receptions each week.

 
Great work, as usual.

I'm sorry, I can't see Lynch w/over 1000 yds. Heck, w/that tough (toughest imo) Rush schedule, I don't see the bills getting 1200 yds rushing total.

That rush sos is brutal.

 
From what I am hearing is that Shaud may be kept and keep 5 RB's this year.
I'll be pretty surprised if that happens. With Lynch, Thomas, Wright, and Scobey all likely to make the team, Williams would pretty useless since I don't think he's much of a special teams contributor and he'd be a 4th string RB at best. They won't carry any fullbacks this year, but I think those extra roster spots will go to tight ends/h-backs rather than a non-blocking RB like Shaud.
 

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