Tell me if this makes sense ... (1 Viewer)

[burd]

one league im in scores a point per rushing and receiving first down (none for passing). There is nothing out there as far as projected fist downs for players, so im trying to figure something out myself. anyway, tell me if this makes sense of if my logic is flawed ...

looking at 2007 stats for RBs:

for he vast majority of RBs, around 20% of their rushes are for first downs.

35% of a RBs receptions are for first downs.

for WRs:

around 66% of a WRs receptions were for first downs.

So im thinking that i can get a decent first down projection for players by multiplying each players projected rushes and receptions by these percentages.

 

[Chase Stuart]

one league im in scores a point per rushing and receiving first down (none for passing). There is nothing out there as far as projected fist downs for players, so im trying to figure something out myself. anyway, tell me if this makes sense of if my logic is flawed ...

looking at 2007 stats for RBs:

for he vast majority of RBs, around 20% of their rushes are for first downs.

35% of a RBs receptions are for first downs.

for WRs:

around 66% of a WRs receptions were for first downs.

So im thinking that i can get a decent first down projection for players by multiplying each players projected rushes and receptions by these percentages.

That's going to be close enough. But over on the PFR blog, Doug came up with the following formula:Estimated First Downs = 6 + .023*RecYd + .30*Rec

So if a WR is projected at 80/1000, that's 53 projected first downs. That's also exactly what 66% of 80 will give you. But if you project 60/1000, that's 47 receptions. 66% would give you 40 first downs. In other words, if you just look at receptions, you're going to overproject first downs for low YPR guys and underproject for high YPR guys. What I would do is use Doug's formula for WRs, and for RBs (since I don't believe there's a formula out there yet) just use % of rushes but manually move up the guys with the high YPC and move down the guys with the low YPC.

Best of luck!

 

[burd]

one league im in scores a point per rushing and receiving first down (none for passing). There is nothing out there as far as projected fist downs for players, so im trying to figure something out myself. anyway, tell me if this makes sense of if my logic is flawed ...

looking at 2007 stats for RBs:

for he vast majority of RBs, around 20% of their rushes are for first downs.

35% of a RBs receptions are for first downs.

for WRs:

around 66% of a WRs receptions were for first downs.

So im thinking that i can get a decent first down projection for players by multiplying each players projected rushes and receptions by these percentages.

That's going to be close enough. But over on the PFR blog, Doug came up with the following formula:Estimated First Downs = 6 + .023*RecYd + .30*Rec

So if a WR is projected at 80/1000, that's 53 projected first downs. That's also exactly what 66% of 80 will give you. But if you project 60/1000, that's 47 receptions. 66% would give you 40 first downs. In other words, if you just look at receptions, you're going to overproject first downs for low YPR guys and underproject for high YPR guys. What I would do is use Doug's formula for WRs, and for RBs (since I don't believe there's a formula out there yet) just use % of rushes but manually move up the guys with the high YPC and move down the guys with the low YPC.

Best of luck!

yeah, i noticed that my way works fairly well for middle of the road guys, but didn't work as well for top end and lower end guys. I'll definitely use Doug's formula. thanks!!