Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Terrelle Pryor (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter mere blitzianity
- Start date
WagesOfZin
Footballguy
zero way of telling who gets shorted. although, i'd give reed the least probability of losing targets. if he's healthy, he'll be involved.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I agree but he's also most likely to lose targets because he's hurt. Plus who knows what kind of role Doctson gets too.
TripItUp
Footballguy
My guess is crowder and Docston draw the short straws. I have Crowder as one of the most overvalued WRs.
Pryor and Reed will get theirs.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
This team has never been afraid to spread the ball around, with no WR ever seeing more than 114 targets (Garcon) in a season during Gruden's three years as HC. You usually have Reed on pace for 120-130 targets, Garcon finishing with 105-115, DJax on pace for 100-105, the 3rd WR with 80-90 targets and then Helu/Thompson with 50-60 targets.
Also Gruden, who is calling plays this year, has stated that they'd like to run more. Last year they ranked 27th in rushing attempts per game, the lowest per game average since Gruden took over. So if the rush/pass ratio more so mimics years 14-15 than it does last year, there may not be as many missing targets to go around as people assume.
Pryor could be more feast or famine this year in the mold of DJax, which isn't exactly a bad thing but kind of limits his season long upside. He has more TD upside than DJax but it's hard to get around the volume and what I'm assuming will be an at best, average catch rate. I can foresee a scenario where Reed misses time and Doctson/Grant underperform to the point where more targets are funneled over to Pryor but I'm not going to draft based on those assumptions.
Also Gruden, who is calling plays this year, has stated that they'd like to run more. Last year they ranked 27th in rushing attempts per game, the lowest per game average since Gruden took over. So if the rush/pass ratio more so mimics years 14-15 than it does last year, there may not be as many missing targets to go around as people assume.
Pryor could be more feast or famine this year in the mold of DJax, which isn't exactly a bad thing but kind of limits his season long upside. He has more TD upside than DJax but it's hard to get around the volume and what I'm assuming will be an at best, average catch rate. I can foresee a scenario where Reed misses time and Doctson/Grant underperform to the point where more targets are funneled over to Pryor but I'm not going to draft based on those assumptions.
NFL2DF
Footballguy
@SameSongNDance
Are you a fantasy analyst? You seem to have solid insights in every thread I've looked at. Thanks for the contributions.
Are you a fantasy analyst? You seem to have solid insights in every thread I've looked at. Thanks for the contributions.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I've compiled a bunch of really good resources over the years and I'm essentially just good at absorbing info and parroting it. It's nothing special but thanks.
shadyridr
Footballguy
DallasDMac
Footballguy
He states this a lot, but rarely follows up with it. I wish he would to be honest. But it simply doesn't happen. Maybe he'll surprise me this year. But the first team performance in week one certainly doesn't give me a good feeling.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It' might be the worst collection of RBs in the league so I would expect plenty of passing.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Given how well the OL played last year its actually quite odd that they finished 27th in rushing attempts per game. If you look at the teams who finished similarly, they either had extremely poor OLs or poor records (game script) and in most cases it was a combination of both. The only other outlier seems to be GB but that's because they quite literally didn't have a running back.
I suspect WAS's RZ woes effected game script and subsequently their pass/rush ratio last year. They ranked 30th in the NFL, only converting on 45% of their RZ attempts. I'm expecting some positive regression, ironically partly due to the signing of Pryor but mostly just due to natural regression.
I'm not expecting WAS to become a run first team since their strength lies in their passing attack but I constantly see people only using 2016 as the base for their projections when I think it makes a lot more sense to look at 2014-16 instead.
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
In my mocks (pick 4, redraft) I've been getting him in round 3. Cousins is a great deep ball thrower so I think he could easily match or eclipse last years stats. Thoughts?
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
Who is safer in your opinion?
OnTheReg
Footballguy
Jed
Footballguy
In terms of safe I would say: DT, Allen, Hopkins in that order
Upside potential: Hill, Pryor in that order
All depends on your risk vs reward philosophy how you rank that group.
If Kelce was there I would go that route.
Last edited by a moderator:
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Right, I was just seeing you said safety. I wonder how safe Hopkins really is. Hard to call a guy safe when he was unstartable the year before.
I still think Kelce is really overrated. You expect a significant increase in Kelce's production or just like him because of how safe he is?
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Hill
Pryor
Allen
Demaryius
Hopkins
I really like Pryor, but the price is too high. I think Hill offers similar upside and floor and is cheaper. Allen, DT and Hopkins are all two expensive and would rather wait on WR if those are my options. I think all three are in the same tier as B. Marshall, M. Bryant, Edelman, Fitz which can be had latter.
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
DT and Hopkins will not be there mid 3rd round in a 12 player league. (I guess I didn't make that clear, my apologies) Allen is upside but carries a super nasty injury history. Hill will prob be there though.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I agree, but I feel that way about almost every player in the 3rd round. To me there almost isn't really a 3rd round so much as one big 4th round.
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
I've done like 12 mocks and both DT and Hopkins were going end of second early third but maybe in my real draft they will be there. I think I agree with Jed.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
standard
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I almost never see Hopkins/Thomas going in the 2nd. ADP has Hopkins as 3.7 and DT at 3.11
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I guess the reason we view Hopkins, DT and Allen as "safe" is due to volume. I see them seeing about 150, 140 and 130 targets respectively. I see Pryor and Hill seeing about 120 and 110 targets respectively.
If at any point I thought Pryor was going to see similar volume as Hopkins and DT I would draft him over them in a heart beat. And that is Pryor's upside, but it would take injury. I also have a feeling that a healthy Doctson is a real threat to Pryor's floor and ceiling this year.
What I've found myself doing when having to choose from this group is I tend to grab someone more stable like DT/Hopkins (Savage will lead to some positive regression) and then later in the draft I look for high upside guys like Bryant, Benjamin, Parker and etc. WRs like Bryant, Benjamin and Parker will likely see similar volume as Pryor and have just as high of a ceilings.
I really think some people are drafting Pryor with the mindset that he's going to step in and command a 25%+ target share when that's something Reed doesn't even command when healthy.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
If the dude doesn't learn to catch the ball, his value is going to suck all year long.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Next week will be telling. At home against the Raiders, who will put up enough points to keep the Skins passing, and dont defend the pass all that well. If he puts up another clunker, it may be time to look elsewhere for a bit and hope he gets his act together for the stretch run, and bye weeks.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I'm willing to accept that I may have been wrong about Pryor moving into the elite tier of WRs this year and wrong about the redskins offense in general. He entire offense outside of chris Thompson seems to be struggling mightily so far. I think cousins needs time to acclimate to Pryor and doctson. Losing garçon and Djax was a big deal.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
He sure looks bad on the field, but he is saying all the right things, and staying very classy about it. Quite the opposite of how his counterpart in Pittsburgh is handling a similar situation, although Pryor is more to blame for his failings on the field than Martavis may be.
He needs to get his confidence back. He was too good in too bad of a situation last year to give up on yet. We know he can play, we saw it last season. I like the way he is handling it off the field, and while I have certainly lowered expectations for him this year and forward, I still think that he is not even close to as bad as he has looked so far this year. If I didnt already own him in my dynasty leagues, I would not be averse to trying to steal him for a 3rd or 4th round pick. He is a free agent this year. Maybe this offense just wasnt a good fit for him. No WR are doing anything in this offense this season. Its been all Chris Thompson and the TEs, while all three of their top WRs have been disappointments.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Ooh, I don't know about that. Off field issues can certainly affect on field performance.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Fair point. Not to derail it, but Martavis seems for all that we are privy to to have turned his off-field stuff around. Served his time, and came back in great physical shape. Team and QB in particular dont seem to have completely forgiven him. He started acting like an idiot diva when his targets and involvement went down to basically nothing.
I think with Pryor, the issues have clearly been drops, and poor play. With Martavis, we dont really know what the issue is. On the surface, it seems like Ben would literally rather throw to a triple-teamed AB than give MB a shot in man coverage, which seems silly given MB's physical gifts and abilities that we have seen for ourselves.
The way they have each handled the issues off the field seems to be night and day - at least so far. Pryor is saying al the right things. MB is acting like the world owes him something.
After watching his highlights all year he's regressing. He's catching the ball with his chest instead of his hands. And I've seen some ugly ones bounce off his body. It's like he's playing without thumbs. When he does catch the ball he runs soft and acts like he doesn't care to fight for yards. I want him to have a "MY BALL" attitude and be tough after the catch. He did this in 2016. He also doesn't use his body to block out contested balls. Again, "MY BALL" attitude. It's just not his year and he's 28. This is a huge concern for his dynasty outlook.
Football Jones
Footballguy
The thing that's so enticing about Pryor is he's got so much headroom. Considering his lack of experience, he looked really good last season.
I don't own Pryor in any leagues, but he's somebody I had high hopes for. Drops have killed him.
I don't own Pryor in any leagues, but he's somebody I had high hopes for. Drops have killed him.
