The 1st overall pick (1 Viewer)

[BigSteelThrill]

I'm closer to putting RR and MJD at #2, then I am at putting ADP at #1.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Really I'd be happy with either back. I am a big fan of the rookie Adrian Peterson. Wonder where he went?

I owned him last year and he seemed to turn into Emmitt Smith.

It would be worth the pick if he could produce the electric plays of his rookie year. But playing with Favre has changed his dynamic on the field. I thought it would make him even more explosive, but he seems like just another very good player. He fumbles too often and doesn't seem to think it's a problem. He also likes to prove he's a "tough guy" by laying into a linebacker to finish off a play. While it may be impressive as a highlight, it makes me concerned for his overall health.

I don't think CJ will repeat his 2000 yard season, but he will still be the focus of the Tennessee offense. He's definitely deserving of being called the best RB in the NFL. He is lightning fast and can do it all.

Either/or AP or CJ at 1.1

Or better yet, see if you can trade down if you draw 1.1. Anywhere in the first 5 spots is good.

 

[Instinctive]

First 5? First 4 is the typical response. Who else do you have top tier?

 

[John 14:6]

It would be worth the pick if he could produce the electric plays of his rookie year. But playing with Favre has changed his dynamic on the field. I thought it would make him even more explosive, but he seems like just another very good player. He fumbles too often and doesn't seem to think it's a problem. He also likes to prove he's a "tough guy" by laying into a linebacker to finish off a play. While it may be impressive as a highlight, it makes me concerned for his overall health.

There were some local reports that he possibly had some kind of injury later in the year. Also, having watched the games, the oline looked much worse last year than previously IMO. The main reason may have been the loss of center Matt Birk to Baltimore, with second year player John Sullivan starting in his place. I was hoping the Vikings would do something to improve their line this offseason. Hopefully a year under the belt for Sullivan and rookie tackle Phil Loadholt will help out. I also heard on the radio here that earlier this offseason Bryant McKinnie (and Kevin Williams) looked leaner and more in shape than usual. McKinnie has a bit of a reputation for not always trying that hard and/or having lapses in games. Hopefully this is a sign of him getting more focused.For the fumbling, Peterson was earlier this offseason working with a 15 lb. football, so he isn't just ignoring the problem. Personally, I dont' see how carrying a heavier ball is going to help. It seems to me that once he goes back to the regular ball, it won't be as noticable and he'll be even more likely to not keep it safe. I recall a story on what Tiki Barber did to fix his fumbling problems. He just had to change the way he held the ball and keep three points of contact at all times: forearm, bicep, and chest. A lot of time Peterson's carrying the ball in his hand away from his body. He supposedly has an amazing handshake, but I don't care how strong of a grip you've got, NFL players are going to be able to knock out the football if you let it hang out there.

 

[baconisgood]

For the fumbling, Peterson was earlier this offseason working with a 15 lb. football, so he isn't just ignoring the problem. Personally, I dont' see how carrying a heavier ball is going to help.

I can think of 2 ways it might help-1. strengthen the muscles that hold the ball.2. Force him to hold the ball in a different manner- if he does enough reps this will become habitual.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

For the fumbling, Peterson was earlier this offseason working with a 15 lb. football, so he isn't just ignoring the problem. Personally, I dont' see how carrying a heavier ball is going to help.

I can think of 2 ways it might help-1. strengthen the muscles that hold the ball.2. Force him to hold the ball in a different manner- if he does enough reps this will become habitual.

But the great ones, the really great ones, they seem to have "eyes in the back of their heads". The lateral vision which is no doubt superb in ADP in the open field, is sometimes lacking at the end of routine 6 yard gains. I think it is more technique than strength. You have to find the technique that works for you, whether it's like Tiki Barber or whatever works. It's not unlike the perfect golf swing (assuming it exists).

 

[fightingillini]

Seriously its a tough decision if you have the #1 pick this year.

Disagree. It very likely will be the easiest decision all draft. Both are studs and if you pick the wrong one, you can't be faulted for taking a risk as both have performed exceptionally high for multiple years. And if one goes down with an injury, well that's just bad luck.

Yep. Pick one. CJ. ADP. MJD. They all are going to be yardage, recpetion, and TD monsters. Looked at Clayton's schedule strength grid. Overall, MIN and TEN are about equal, but TEN has a better playoff schedule. For me it's CJ by a nose.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

First 5? First 4 is the typical response. Who else do you have top tier?

ADP, CJ, MJD, Gore, RR in no particular order

 

[FUBAR]

I had a good idea about Peterson's receptions, I guess I just thought Johnson had more then 50 receptions.

gotcha, FWIW I think CJ has a fair chance to get 70+ receptions and has as much potential as anyone to get 100. But since McNair left in 2005, the Titans haven't thrown much. Their rank in passing attempts: #28 in 2009, 2007 and 2006 and #27 in 2008 (Minnesota was #28). Maybe if VY has had a decent off season (not counting the bar incident), he'll pass more; maybe giving up LenDale and IMO a slight decline in their defense will make them throw more. I'm not counting on it.

 

[FUBAR]

5.The Titans are likely not a playoff caliber team. If they have nothing to play for at the end of the year, it makes sense to rest the franchise player.

Kinda like last season?

I agree with the rest of your replies, but do you really see the Titans coaches trying to get CJ another record? I suppose it's possible but I think highly unlikely. IIRC they weren't completely out of it until the Chargers beat them week 16.

 

[One]

5.The Titans are likely not a playoff caliber team. If they have nothing to play for at the end of the year, it makes sense to rest the franchise player.

Kinda like last season?

I agree with the rest of your replies, but do you really see the Titans coaches trying to get CJ another record? I suppose it's possible but I think highly unlikely. IIRC they weren't completely out of it until the Chargers beat them week 16.

Hi FUBAR, that's not what I'm saying. When do teams 'rest the franchise player' after being eliminated from playoffs? Doesn't seem like Steven Jackson, Frank Gore & Jones-Drew have this problem.

If anything, you'd think an elite RB would be in greater danger of being rested if his team were to clinch playoffs. A possibility for both Peterson and Johnson.

 

[BrainDeadGenius]

I have CJ & MJD a tight 1-2. AP is a clear step below them, IMO. There's multiple reasons the Vikes went out & got Toby Gerhart. One reason is Gerhart very likely could be there GL back (& that's actually what I'm predicting). AP's fumble problems are real. Don't ignore it. Great RB, but it's a weakness of his (at least right now). Nothing hurts a team more than getting down near the GL & having a TO.

For PPR leagues, the distance is even greater between CJ/MJD & AP. As far as the race between CJ & MJD, MJD could easily end up as the highest-scoring player in FF this season if their OL improves &/or Garrard progresses a little bit.

The Vikings got Gerhart because they lost Taylor. Let's not overanalyze. Gerhart isn't taking over for Peterson any time soon, fumbles or no fumbles.

 

[bostonfred]

I think Tennessee pushed CJ to hit a major milestone last year, and they have no reason to do the same thing this year. Coaches do that - they love to give the team something to play for, they love to be able to point to the milestone as one of their own career accomplishments, and they love to be able to tell the owner, hey, we might not have won it all, but look at jersey and season ticket sales. Things are good.

Look at Jerry Rice, Barry Sanders, Jamal Lewis, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Randy Moss, or any of the countless superstars who have had monster seasons. Tell me which ones repeated that performance the following year. CJ's numbers are outstanding, and barring injury, he will almost certainly still do well, but I think you have to project substantial regression this year.

Meanwhile, Peterson no longer has a third down back pushing him for carries. He has a hammer instead, someone who can soften up defenses and get the tough carries. Maybe that includes a few TDs, but he will get his opportunities and then some. Especially with Favre a year older and looking at this as his absolute last chance to get another championship a la Elway in the Terrell Davis years. I think things are lined up for Peterson to finally have that OMG season that we know he's capable of.

FWIW, I just traded away Peterson in a deal to get Jones-Drew+ in a contract keeper league, and I wasn't sure I made the right deal even though Peterson's in his last year of keepability and Jones-Drew has four years. And while that's a very Shark Pool friendly move, I'm still not sure if I should have done it. ADP has that Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Emmitt Smith type season feeling imo, where he will be the starting RB on something like 40-50% of all championship rosters.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

I'm closer to putting RR and MJD at #2, then I am at putting ADP at #1.

Why? RR won't make the Top 10 this year.

 

[bostonfred]

I'm closer to putting RR and MJD at #2, then I am at putting ADP at #1.

Why? RR won't make the Top 10 this year.

This is possible, if McGahee blows up or there's more of a RBBC or an injury. With Jones-Drew the risk is injury or that they spell him a little more. With Peterson, the only thing stopping him is the risk of injury and possibly a few lost TDs to Amelia. Peterson is undeniably the most talented of the three, and the least reliant on his teammates having a good year for him to blow up. That's the guy you want imo.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I'm closer to putting RR and MJD at #2, then I am at putting ADP at #1.

Why? RR won't make the Top 10 this year.

Thank you. The fact that you say he won't, makes me feel much safer as a RR dynasty owner.