wannabee
Footballguy
A Closer Look at the 2005 Rookie RB Class
I realize many will have a different take on some of the guys than I do. Any and all feedback is appreciated. This will, in no way, is exhaustive. Many on this board are much better dynasty experts than I am, but here it goes:
First, I would like to look at a few of the higher profile RBs in the 2005 draft class. I will focus on those drafted highly and not the free agent rookies and lower draft picks. Whenever I attempt to evaluate a young RB, the hardest part for me is trying to articulate an equivalent RB in terms of ability and value. I will try to include the ceiling and floor, including most likely comparison. In addition, since it is dynasty, I will weigh the talent portion heavily while barely touching on circumstance and opportunity. Some comparables might seem a stretch, but is my best estimate.
2005:
Ronnie Brown – Brown has played very well and handled the difficult situation of sharing the backfield with Ricky Williams. In addition, the Dolphins have an average, veteran QB who is not a threat to pass often. This increases the pressure on the running game. Houck had vastly improved the Miami offensive line and helped the Dolphins turn into a good running team. Now, let’s focus on Brown. In the 13 games, Brown has 187 carries for 841 yards for a very respectable ypc of 4.5 and 4 TDs. This 4.5 ypc is extremely strong considering that Brown only has 5 carries of 20 yards or more. He is also, strong in passing game. Brown has caught 28 passes for 208 yards, yielding an average of 7.4 yards per catch. Brown also has 1 receiving TD.
Comparables:
High Side – Edgerrin James. A strong runner who will put his head down and run over a linebacker, but likes getting outside and has good speed. Brown is 18 pounds heavier than James. Both are 6’ with James 214 lbs and Brown 232 lbs.
Low Side – Anthony Thomas (6’2, 225 lbs). Thomas is a decent between the tackles runner. Thomas offers little upside, but does not have enough wiggle to be elite, even with the ROY award (yuck!). Brown has better hands than Thomas so it allows him to stay on the field on 3rd downs and rack up yards and TDs.
Equivalent – Deuce McAllister (6’1, 232). Deuce is a solid RB between the tackles with decent speed. He sometimes battles injury issues, but at his best and in good physical shape, most NFL and fantasy GMs would take Deuce in a heartbeat.
He has the talent to be a top 10 fantasy RB for many years. He has the size and speed combination to be a star. He is a definite fantasy buy. Many might undervalue him due to the presence of Ricky and the fact that he shared the load in college, but Brown could be a star. Brown’s value in dynasty should be that of a younger Corey Dillon. This is the runner Brown reminds me of the most. Brown could be a top 10 RB for 5+ years, just like Dillon. His value could be the same as Dillon’s was during the height his career. Dillon has been productive and steady runner. Brown was Saban’s choice, after being in the SEC, and is my choice, too.
Caddy Williams - Caddy has played very well carrying a large load, when healthy. With the addition of Caddy, the Bucs have turned into a team that has relied heavy on the run, and play strong defense. As the season as progressed, the Bucs have thrown fewer times per game and relied on the run more. Caddy has played 11 games, after missing 2 due to injury. He is averaging 20 carries per game. This average has come down some from the insane number of rushes earlier in the year. He will not be able to hold up for long averaging 300+ carries per year. With 223 carries, Williams has 924 yards for a 4.1 ypc. and 5 TDs. Williams is explosive with 7 carries of 20+ yards. Williams is a good receiver but does not have many passes thrown to him. He has caught 16 passes for 67 yards. Williams is solidly built at 5’11, 217 lbs.
Comparables:
High Side – Clinton Portis (5’11, 212 lbs). Portis, like Williams, has the speed to take almost any carry to the house. In addition, their teams give them 20+ carries per game. Simply put: both are workhorse backs that have game-breaking ability.
Low Side – Lee Suggs (6’, 206). Suggs has very good talent but is the ultimate tease due to injuries. Granted, Suggs was not draft with the same expectations, but much has been expected of Suggs with mixed results. They each have oodles of talent, but Suggs seems to be a tease (just like D. Foster) who everyone says “what if”?
Equivalent – Ahman Green (6’, 218 lbs). Green is a steady workhorse back who is good out of the backfield. He has been a solid, steady performer for many years. Any young back would love to have Green’s credentials.
Caddy Williams should be a solid top 15 RB in Tampa for years to come. Presently, Tampa is using Alstot to vulture the short yardage and goal line carries, and Pittman is used in obvious passing downs. Another comparison for Williams might be between Ricky Watters on the high side (value/production-wise) and a Fred Taylor type of back. I see Caddy’s value as being high. His owners see the production and upcoming ROY. They see a star on the rise and are hesitant to trade the next big star. I see his ceiling as lower than most. He can be a solid RB8-15 for many years, barring injury. Just as with Brown, many are waiting to see if Williams can carry the load given the reduced touches in college. I see Caddy as a reserved or measured buy. His size is the same as many NFL stars. He will need to prove he is durable. Plus, the Bucs, and Gruden in particular, will need to show they how to utilize (and not overwork) Williams to is strengths. Williams does have the ability to be consistent runner for many years, just like Watters. To get Watters’ level, Williams will need to prove he can be versatile out of the backfield and prove more durable than Fred Taylor. Williams seems to get stronger as the game goes on with more and more carries. This is a two-edged sword. This is great news for fantasy owners. We all want our stud RB to get tons of carries, especially ones that seem to get stronger with each one. But, this workload might also expose durability issues for Williams. He did have an injury history at Auburn. Something to consider.
Cedric Benson - Benson is a pounding back that is the type of runner who gets stronger as the game goes on. He went to the ideal team, the Bears. But, no one counted on Thomas Jones playing so well this year and staying injury free. Regardless, Benson has a bright future in Chicago. Benson has been slowed this year for a couple of reasons. First of all, he held out and missed most of training camp and preseason. This has stunted the growth of all who have gotten themselves in that situation. Secondly, a midseason knee injury stalled any momentum gained due to Jones’ rib injury. Benson runs “down hill” and with authority. He is a big guy at 5’10 and 215 lbs. He runs larger than the listed size, too.
Comparables:
High Side – Rudi Johnson. Rudi is a grind it out back that gets stronger as the game goes along. This situation might be like Rudi’s where it was not until his third year in the NFL, and a Dillon injury, when Rudi emerged. This prompted a Dillon trade. Strong play by Benson might force a Jones trade.
Low Side – Ron Dayne – Size and high draft pick. Dayne is an enigma who shows flashes, but in the end, it is obvious to all he cannot be relied upon to be the primary ball carrier. Dayne has the size, but thinks of himself as a finesse runner.
Equivalent – Mike Anderson in his prime. Anderson has been a stud, when healthy, on a team that likes to run the ball ... a lot. Benson has to prove that he is more durable than Mike the Marine. But, he is a workhorse type of back.
Benson proved to be durable and a workhorse in college. He started 43 games in college and ran for 5,500+ yards and 64 TDs. He very well could be on par with fellow Longhorn, Ricky Williams, even though they have different strengths. He could be a solid RB5-10 for ten years. He will probably be a guy who relies heavily on TDs to gain fantasy points. He will gain yards a plenty, but is strong at the goal line and will be used to punch in red zone TDs. Due to Benson’s injury and holdout, his value is low. I put Benson as a buy primarily because he will not be as expensive as one might think. Many Benson owners might be looking at Thomas Jones as a roadblock. But, in dynasty, talent rises to the top. In 2005, Benson has only 58 carries for 237 yards yielding a 4.1 ypc. He has flashed some speed with 3 carries on 20+ yards and long carry of 36 yards. My recommendation would be to try to buy Benson today. He is slowed coming back from injury. His knee is still “stiff”. But, if the Bears go deep in the playoffs, Benson might get a chance to show all watching what he is made of – including the Bears and the Benson owners. If you believe in Benson, now is the time to buy.
Now, for the discussion part of the thread. I welcome all feedback on my post as well as I would like all to fill in the blanks below with a player's name and why:
Brown :
High Side -
Low Side -
Most Probable -
Williams:
High Side -
Low Side -
Most Probable -
Benson:
High Side -
Low Side -
Most Probable -
Once again, I welcome all feedback and realize many here know much more than I do about grading and evaluating young NFL players. A quick thanks out to Bloom who has helped me through this process. Due to space, I will do another one of these (IF people want) for another 3-4 rookie RBs soon.
I realize many will have a different take on some of the guys than I do. Any and all feedback is appreciated. This will, in no way, is exhaustive. Many on this board are much better dynasty experts than I am, but here it goes:
First, I would like to look at a few of the higher profile RBs in the 2005 draft class. I will focus on those drafted highly and not the free agent rookies and lower draft picks. Whenever I attempt to evaluate a young RB, the hardest part for me is trying to articulate an equivalent RB in terms of ability and value. I will try to include the ceiling and floor, including most likely comparison. In addition, since it is dynasty, I will weigh the talent portion heavily while barely touching on circumstance and opportunity. Some comparables might seem a stretch, but is my best estimate.
2005:
Ronnie Brown – Brown has played very well and handled the difficult situation of sharing the backfield with Ricky Williams. In addition, the Dolphins have an average, veteran QB who is not a threat to pass often. This increases the pressure on the running game. Houck had vastly improved the Miami offensive line and helped the Dolphins turn into a good running team. Now, let’s focus on Brown. In the 13 games, Brown has 187 carries for 841 yards for a very respectable ypc of 4.5 and 4 TDs. This 4.5 ypc is extremely strong considering that Brown only has 5 carries of 20 yards or more. He is also, strong in passing game. Brown has caught 28 passes for 208 yards, yielding an average of 7.4 yards per catch. Brown also has 1 receiving TD.
Comparables:
High Side – Edgerrin James. A strong runner who will put his head down and run over a linebacker, but likes getting outside and has good speed. Brown is 18 pounds heavier than James. Both are 6’ with James 214 lbs and Brown 232 lbs.
Low Side – Anthony Thomas (6’2, 225 lbs). Thomas is a decent between the tackles runner. Thomas offers little upside, but does not have enough wiggle to be elite, even with the ROY award (yuck!). Brown has better hands than Thomas so it allows him to stay on the field on 3rd downs and rack up yards and TDs.
Equivalent – Deuce McAllister (6’1, 232). Deuce is a solid RB between the tackles with decent speed. He sometimes battles injury issues, but at his best and in good physical shape, most NFL and fantasy GMs would take Deuce in a heartbeat.
He has the talent to be a top 10 fantasy RB for many years. He has the size and speed combination to be a star. He is a definite fantasy buy. Many might undervalue him due to the presence of Ricky and the fact that he shared the load in college, but Brown could be a star. Brown’s value in dynasty should be that of a younger Corey Dillon. This is the runner Brown reminds me of the most. Brown could be a top 10 RB for 5+ years, just like Dillon. His value could be the same as Dillon’s was during the height his career. Dillon has been productive and steady runner. Brown was Saban’s choice, after being in the SEC, and is my choice, too.
Caddy Williams - Caddy has played very well carrying a large load, when healthy. With the addition of Caddy, the Bucs have turned into a team that has relied heavy on the run, and play strong defense. As the season as progressed, the Bucs have thrown fewer times per game and relied on the run more. Caddy has played 11 games, after missing 2 due to injury. He is averaging 20 carries per game. This average has come down some from the insane number of rushes earlier in the year. He will not be able to hold up for long averaging 300+ carries per year. With 223 carries, Williams has 924 yards for a 4.1 ypc. and 5 TDs. Williams is explosive with 7 carries of 20+ yards. Williams is a good receiver but does not have many passes thrown to him. He has caught 16 passes for 67 yards. Williams is solidly built at 5’11, 217 lbs.
Comparables:
High Side – Clinton Portis (5’11, 212 lbs). Portis, like Williams, has the speed to take almost any carry to the house. In addition, their teams give them 20+ carries per game. Simply put: both are workhorse backs that have game-breaking ability.
Low Side – Lee Suggs (6’, 206). Suggs has very good talent but is the ultimate tease due to injuries. Granted, Suggs was not draft with the same expectations, but much has been expected of Suggs with mixed results. They each have oodles of talent, but Suggs seems to be a tease (just like D. Foster) who everyone says “what if”?
Equivalent – Ahman Green (6’, 218 lbs). Green is a steady workhorse back who is good out of the backfield. He has been a solid, steady performer for many years. Any young back would love to have Green’s credentials.
Caddy Williams should be a solid top 15 RB in Tampa for years to come. Presently, Tampa is using Alstot to vulture the short yardage and goal line carries, and Pittman is used in obvious passing downs. Another comparison for Williams might be between Ricky Watters on the high side (value/production-wise) and a Fred Taylor type of back. I see Caddy’s value as being high. His owners see the production and upcoming ROY. They see a star on the rise and are hesitant to trade the next big star. I see his ceiling as lower than most. He can be a solid RB8-15 for many years, barring injury. Just as with Brown, many are waiting to see if Williams can carry the load given the reduced touches in college. I see Caddy as a reserved or measured buy. His size is the same as many NFL stars. He will need to prove he is durable. Plus, the Bucs, and Gruden in particular, will need to show they how to utilize (and not overwork) Williams to is strengths. Williams does have the ability to be consistent runner for many years, just like Watters. To get Watters’ level, Williams will need to prove he can be versatile out of the backfield and prove more durable than Fred Taylor. Williams seems to get stronger as the game goes on with more and more carries. This is a two-edged sword. This is great news for fantasy owners. We all want our stud RB to get tons of carries, especially ones that seem to get stronger with each one. But, this workload might also expose durability issues for Williams. He did have an injury history at Auburn. Something to consider.
Cedric Benson - Benson is a pounding back that is the type of runner who gets stronger as the game goes on. He went to the ideal team, the Bears. But, no one counted on Thomas Jones playing so well this year and staying injury free. Regardless, Benson has a bright future in Chicago. Benson has been slowed this year for a couple of reasons. First of all, he held out and missed most of training camp and preseason. This has stunted the growth of all who have gotten themselves in that situation. Secondly, a midseason knee injury stalled any momentum gained due to Jones’ rib injury. Benson runs “down hill” and with authority. He is a big guy at 5’10 and 215 lbs. He runs larger than the listed size, too.
Comparables:
High Side – Rudi Johnson. Rudi is a grind it out back that gets stronger as the game goes along. This situation might be like Rudi’s where it was not until his third year in the NFL, and a Dillon injury, when Rudi emerged. This prompted a Dillon trade. Strong play by Benson might force a Jones trade.
Low Side – Ron Dayne – Size and high draft pick. Dayne is an enigma who shows flashes, but in the end, it is obvious to all he cannot be relied upon to be the primary ball carrier. Dayne has the size, but thinks of himself as a finesse runner.
Equivalent – Mike Anderson in his prime. Anderson has been a stud, when healthy, on a team that likes to run the ball ... a lot. Benson has to prove that he is more durable than Mike the Marine. But, he is a workhorse type of back.
Benson proved to be durable and a workhorse in college. He started 43 games in college and ran for 5,500+ yards and 64 TDs. He very well could be on par with fellow Longhorn, Ricky Williams, even though they have different strengths. He could be a solid RB5-10 for ten years. He will probably be a guy who relies heavily on TDs to gain fantasy points. He will gain yards a plenty, but is strong at the goal line and will be used to punch in red zone TDs. Due to Benson’s injury and holdout, his value is low. I put Benson as a buy primarily because he will not be as expensive as one might think. Many Benson owners might be looking at Thomas Jones as a roadblock. But, in dynasty, talent rises to the top. In 2005, Benson has only 58 carries for 237 yards yielding a 4.1 ypc. He has flashed some speed with 3 carries on 20+ yards and long carry of 36 yards. My recommendation would be to try to buy Benson today. He is slowed coming back from injury. His knee is still “stiff”. But, if the Bears go deep in the playoffs, Benson might get a chance to show all watching what he is made of – including the Bears and the Benson owners. If you believe in Benson, now is the time to buy.
Now, for the discussion part of the thread. I welcome all feedback on my post as well as I would like all to fill in the blanks below with a player's name and why:
Brown :
High Side -
Low Side -
Most Probable -
Williams:
High Side -
Low Side -
Most Probable -
Benson:
High Side -
Low Side -
Most Probable -
Once again, I welcome all feedback and realize many here know much more than I do about grading and evaluating young NFL players. A quick thanks out to Bloom who has helped me through this process. Due to space, I will do another one of these (IF people want) for another 3-4 rookie RBs soon.
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