The 3rd Tier of Rookie RBs in a PPR league (1 Viewer)

[Ripleys]

I think its safe to say that so far, we should expect the first 5 RBs off the board to be:

1) McFadden, Stewart, Mende

2) Forte, K.Smith

I think you can make an argument for who goes where within each of the first two tiers, but the drafts have consistently shown those 5 to be the first off the board.

My intrigue is with that next tier of backs, Jones, Rice, and Johnson. So far, I've seen these guys go all over the place. Assuming you don't own Barber, McGahee, or Fatdale, and pick one for the sake of covering a team's backfield, how do you rank these players in a PPR league for impact this year, and long term, and why?

 

[DenverBroncos]

I'd have to say Johnson. He could be a PPR/punt returning machine and could break a lot of long TD's. I think he is MJD with better catching skills.

Rice will be a backup for the next 2 years and probably nothing more so I don't think he should even be considered in this group.

Felix Jones is intriguing but I'd still take Johnson.

1. Johnson

2. Jones

3. Rice

 

[Cookiemonster]

I like Rice the best of all, and have him ranked #3 in this draft. I don't hope for more than 150 touches and 6-700 yards, tops (injury to McGahee aside of course) so he is my long-term favorite, and my least favorite short-term.

Chris Johnson is my favorite for this year. I'm betting that his floor this year is = to Rice's ceiling this year. I like him short-term, and long term and is my #1 and #2 respectively (of this "tier") and my #5 overall in this draft class for dynasty purposes.

IMO Felix Jones is not close to those two, long-term. I like his opportunity much better than Rice's for this year, but I believe Rice is quite a bit more talented and will blow Jones' career out of the water. Jones' stats should be #2 of this group this year with a shot to be #1, but in a dynasty he probably falls to about #7 or 8 for me. I'm warming up to him.

 

[massraider]

Jones. I think he is very talented, and what clinches it for me is Barber's contract situation. If Barber doesn't get a deal done, Jones could find himself the lead dog in Dallas, a team with a good offense. I think talent, opportunity, and surrounding talent ALL point to Felix.

I don't think Rice is good enough to be a lead back (I am in the minority, I am sure), and he has McGahee in front of him for the immediate future. RBBC is unlikely.

Johnson to me, is RBBC, at best. I think he'll make more noise in the passing game, and I am not excited about him putting up decent receiving totals with Young at QB. I know little about him, just what I have read, but I know he's not big enough to be a 20 carry guy. I think he'll have some nice games, and some really quiet ones. Fantasy-wise, I don't see him being a startable option, not with the Titan offense in its' current state.

 

[rzrback77]

I like Johnson because of the Tennessee focus on running and lack of receiving options, as well as his talent. Felix Jones is next, but I think that he is not going to be as fast or as shifty as folks expect. I am in the minority probably, but Rice brings up the rear of this group for me based on both talent and situation. Just not a fan. I think that Johnson could actually outperform Smith to rank 4th overall in this class.

 

[EBF]

I like all of them at their ADP. They offer good value as backup runners in a PPR. With that said, I would rank them as follows:

1. Felix Jones - Jones and Rice are very close on my board, but Jones gets the nod because he's a little bit bigger and he has a better pedigree as a first round pick by a team with a pretty good scouting department. Felix should quickly become a double digit scorer as a better, more versatile version of Julius Jones in the Dallas offense. He doesn't have great power, but he has an acceptable BMI for a starter and I think he has room to add a little bit of weight. He's explosive with great vision and nice moves. There's a chance that he'll never be more than a RBBC type, but he should immediately be quality RB3 in PPR and he has a fairly high upside.

2. Ray Rice - I like Rice a lot. He's a natural runner with good leg drive and fluid hips. I see very little bust risk here. At worst, he'll be Ahmad Bradshaw. The problem with Ray is that he's only about 200-205 pounds and he's really more of a power back than a speed back. There aren't many 205 pound power backs starting in the league and I think there's some risk that Ray will always be a RBBC type. So while I feel he's a talented player with minimal risk, I'm not sure he has a huge ceiling in FF leagues. I'm very high on his prospects though and I wouldn't hesitate to draft him in the RB20-25 range of dynasty drafts and the 4-5 range of rookie drafts.

3. Chris Johnson - There's a lot to like about Johnson. He has a first round pedigree and should quickly work his way into the lineup as a change of pace back for the Titans. His combine numbers are elite across the board. He's a good receiver and he has the potential to catch a lot of balls. I think you can make a strong case for him over Jones and Rice in a redraft PPR. However, I don't have a ton of faith in Johnson's overall talent. He's light with a low BMI and little chance of ever developing into a three down starter. He keeps his feet after contact and has a nice spin move, but he's not truly elusive in the open field and he takes some spine-jarring hits. There's something slightly awkward and unnatural about his running style. So while I like his chances as a short term guy who will catch a few passes and give you decent scoring, I think he has the most bust risk of this trio and the least potential to become a featured back.

These guys are a difficult bunch to rank because they all have some exciting qualities, but they're all significantly flawed in one way or another. I'm still pretty high on Rice and Jones and I would recommend drafting them ahead of Forte and Smith in all formats.

 

[cpstorm]

.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I like all of them at their ADP. They offer good value as backup runners in a PPR. With that said, I would rank them as follows:1. Felix Jones - Jones and Rice are very close on my board, but Jones gets the nod because he's a little bit bigger and he has a better pedigree as a first round pick by a team with a pretty good scouting department. Felix should quickly become a double digit scorer as a better, more versatile version of Julius Jones in the Dallas offense. He doesn't have great power, but he has an acceptable BMI for a starter and I think he has room to add a little bit of weight. He's explosive with great vision and nice moves. There's a chance that he'll never be more than a RBBC type, but he should immediately be quality RB3 in PPR and he has a fairly high upside. 2. Ray Rice - I like Rice a lot. He's a natural runner with good leg drive and fluid hips. I see very little bust risk here. At worst, he'll be Ahmad Bradshaw. The problem with Ray is that he's only about 200-205 pounds and he's really more of a power back than a speed back. There aren't many 205 pound power backs starting in the league and I think there's some risk that Ray will always be a RBBC type. So while I feel he's a talented player with minimal risk, I'm not sure he has a huge ceiling in FF leagues. I'm very high on his prospects though and I wouldn't hesitate to draft him in the RB20-25 range of dynasty drafts and the 4-5 range of rookie drafts. 3. Chris Johnson - There's a lot to like about Johnson. He has a first round pedigree and should quickly work his way into the lineup as a change of pace back for the Titans. His combine numbers are elite across the board. He's a good receiver and he has the potential to catch a lot of balls. I think you can make a strong case for him over Jones and Rice in a redraft PPR. However, I don't have a ton of faith in Johnson's overall talent. He's light with a low BMI and little chance of ever developing into a three down starter. He keeps his feet after contact and has a nice spin move, but he's not truly elusive in the open field and he takes some spine-jarring hits. There's something slightly awkward and unnatural about his running style. So while I like his chances as a short term guy who will catch a few passes and give you decent scoring, I think he has the most bust risk of this trio and the least potential to become a featured back. These guys are a difficult bunch to rank because they all have some exciting qualities, but they're all significantly flawed in one way or another. I'm still pretty high on Rice and Jones and I would recommend drafting them ahead of Forte and Smith in all formats.

I've got the 1.04 and 1.05 as well as the 1.07, but I'm betting my leaguemates will be surprised to see K.Smith, M.Forte AND F.Jones still on the board @ the 1.06. The best part is, I still get one of those three next. I'm taking Johnson & Rice as I've played out all the scenarios in mock drafts, and would be equally happy w/ 2 of the other 3, but would be dissappointed if I didn't land Rice or Johnson.

 

[Englishteacher]

I'd have to say Johnson. He could be a PPR/punt returning machine and could break a lot of long TD's. I think he is MJD with better catching skills.

Rice will be a backup for the next 2 years and probably nothing more so I don't think he should even be considered in this group.

Felix Jones is intriguing but I'd still take Johnson.

1. Johnson

2. Jones

3. Rice

You mean as far as how he could produce fantasy wise or what? Johnson could be a ppr machine but he will be limited by the fact he's probably not an every down, every series feature back. MJD should be able to handle a heavier workload. I certainly see Johnson breaking some long runs, moreso than MJD. "I think he is MJD with better catching skills." Wha? About the only thing true in this statement is Johnson will end up a better receiver. MJD is a severely vertically challenged power runner. He lacks bulk but not for his frame. Johnson lacks some height and needs more bulk for his frame. He is a pure speed back who lacks fundamental power and between the tackles ability. One undersized guy was amped up with power by the football gods. The other undersized guy was amped up with electrifying speed. The second guy was also given great ball skills (catching the football).

 

[Ripleys]

well i had the 1.6 pick this morning and decided on Johnson over Felix or Rice. But i think arguments can be made for all 3. I do like the early feedback on Johnson though. Lord knows that offense needs a play maker in the worst way.

 

[madd futher]

You made a great chioce IMO. I have 1.06 in my keep 8 keeper.......there are a few quality veterans available (I had to cut E Graham, dammit), Bradshaw, Jennings, and A Gonzalez. Unless one of the big 3 rooks drops, I'm targeting Jennings. But I'm trying to trade for the Maroney for the 1.09 and 1.16, because i'm targeting C Johnson as well - he could be available at 1.09.

 

[UnknownCoach]

Count me in as one of those who thinks you should draft Jones and Johnson ahead of Smith and Forte in a PPR. Even though I'm high on Smith.

 

[switz]

Count me in as one of those who thinks you should draft Jones and Johnson ahead of Smith and Forte in a PPR. Even though I'm high on Smith.

Reality is, that in all likelihood, both Smith and Forte will be complete busts from an FF perspective. They are not #1 calibre RBs, but stop gap solutions. In a dynasty situation, they should be drafted lower than Jones, and probably Johnson as well.In a redraft, they should go higher due to immediate extensive opportunity.

 

[bigreese82]

I have a hard time seeing C.Johnson not catching 4-6 balls per game. Everything you see has TN game planning around him. I'm sure he won't see many goaline carries but I'm sure he'll break a couple of long ones

 

[gianmarco]

Count me in as one of those who thinks you should draft Jones and Johnson ahead of Smith and Forte in a PPR. Even though I'm high on Smith.

Reality is, that in all likelihood, both Smith and Forte will be complete busts from an FF perspective. They are not #1 calibre RBs, but stop gap solutions. In a dynasty situation, they should be drafted lower than Jones, and probably Johnson as well.In a redraft, they should go higher due to immediate extensive opportunity.

Actually, based on wcdrob's "objective evaluation", Smith should not only not be a bust, but is rated in the highest category there is. Considering that group essentially has no busts that I can recall, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. I just wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Kevin Smith.

 

[switz]

Count me in as one of those who thinks you should draft Jones and Johnson ahead of Smith and Forte in a PPR. Even though I'm high on Smith.

Reality is, that in all likelihood, both Smith and Forte will be complete busts from an FF perspective. They are not #1 calibre RBs, but stop gap solutions. In a dynasty situation, they should be drafted lower than Jones, and probably Johnson as well.In a redraft, they should go higher due to immediate extensive opportunity.

Actually, based on wcdrob's "objective evaluation", Smith should not only not be a bust, but is rated in the highest category there is. Considering that group essentially has no busts that I can recall, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. I just wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Kevin Smith.

I know that actually. Between the two of them Smith has a better chance at success IMO. But Detroit has been pretty awful at evaluating players, and their team is a mess IMO. Even if Smith has the physical skills - is he in a situation to succeed?

 

[gianmarco]

Count me in as one of those who thinks you should draft Jones and Johnson ahead of Smith and Forte in a PPR. Even though I'm high on Smith.

Reality is, that in all likelihood, both Smith and Forte will be complete busts from an FF perspective. They are not #1 calibre RBs, but stop gap solutions. In a dynasty situation, they should be drafted lower than Jones, and probably Johnson as well.In a redraft, they should go higher due to immediate extensive opportunity.

Actually, based on wcdrob's "objective evaluation", Smith should not only not be a bust, but is rated in the highest category there is. Considering that group essentially has no busts that I can recall, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. I just wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Kevin Smith.

I know that actually. Between the two of them Smith has a better chance at success IMO. But Detroit has been pretty awful at evaluating players, and their team is a mess IMO. Even if Smith has the physical skills - is he in a situation to succeed?

Even if it wasn't Detroit, he would have gone soon so it was reported. St. Louis was reportedly going to take him, so he would have made the same cutoff even if it wasn't Detroit that picked him (by a good margin, too). Now, if you want to argue that Detroit will hold him back, that's one thing. But as we've seen argued before, talent wins out and going by those #'s from that thread, he has a decent shot to do well.

 

[EBF]

Smith is a boom-or-bust pick. I think in three years he'll either be seen as a consensus top 20 back or a total bust. He might fit rob's criteria, but he has a funky body, an atypical running style, and a fairly uninspiring set of combine numbers. I think he's a mid-late first rounder in rookie drafts. He could be Frank Gore or he could be Vernand Morency. I lean slightly towards the latter since he never really stood out to me the way I would expect a top RB prospect to stand out.

 

[Tecmo]

1) Ray Rice - i see superior vision that makes him effective between the tackles. His short stutter-steps at the line keep defenders guessing, buys him a little time since he's not a burner. I see someone that can gain positive yardage consistently.

2) Matt Forte - nice to see a big man with moves. I really like how he uses his blockers, he works off them. I see that part of his game translating. Problem is he is slow. He put in a good 40 time at the combine, but the game film shows someone that barely outran the Conference USA. I don't think his game can overcome his lack of speed in the NFL, he needs a good line and Chicago likes to collect maulers. I see short-term value, but no long-term

3) Kevin Smith - he displays some vision that gets him some positive yardage. He also displays a nice burst through the hole. He is deceptively fast in the second level. There's a lot to not like though. Horrible balance. he's not fluid at all finding his lane behind the line, looks like a FB or something. Breaks it outside too much, I wonder if he just tried his hardest to take it to the house every play since he was a 1-man show. What annoys me are all the crazy hits he takes, I question his natural running skills to avoid/deflect some of these hits. If you get any piece of his ankle, it's like TIMBERRRR!!! I'm seeing too much bust, but admit his game can be coached up some. Yeah right in Detroit, he needs a good line too, get him going downhill ASAP.