The Andrew Luck assumption (1 Viewer)

[Sweet Love]

It is hard to take a step back and look at history when you are in the midst of things to see that a "given" at one point in time is anything but a guarantee. I like what Luck did last year, and chances are he will be the #1 overall, but leading up to the draft there was an assumption that if you could secure the #1 overall pick in 2012, that Luck would be your man (the real bickering back and forth was whether a crappy team like Carolina would actually be #1 again, not whether Luck was the guy to take there). When I look at recent history, I see something totally different in that the guy who was a consensus #1 in year X is the same in year X+1.

Matt Leinert - Was the consensus #1 after his junior year and spurned the Niners by playing his senior season. He played fine, yet dropped to #10 overall. There were at least three QB needy teams at that time picking ahead of the Cards in Houston, Tenn and the Jets and in fact the Titans selected another guy ahead of him.

Sam Bradford - this one is tricky in that he came back another year after being the consensus #1 and actually was #1 the following year. But did he really "come back"? He played 1-2 games (can't remember) and was out for the rest of the year. This gave little opportunity to pick his game apart in that year (as it was most likely picked apart in the previous one) and also did not give opposing defenses a chance to do so either (could have been an epic fail on their part, but we will never know). In reality, he did not "go back", it was cut too short to really judge either way.

Jake Locker - was being talked about as a #1, but declared to come back so early, I don't think it gave scouts a chance to think one way or the other. He ended up going #8 and was behind an upstart QB in Newton. Even at that position, he was thought of as a "stretch"...no one will argue on that point (not saying he won't be the #2 or even #1 of the class in 10 years, but it surprised everyone).

back to Luck: He is going into his Sr. season without the same coach he had for his starting career. It could be the biggest gamble of the three...that point has been discussed, but again, it is just assumed he will be the #1 QB, let alone the #1 pick.

Side Note: I will go on record here (and I can taste the bile in my mouth as a Jets fan), but I think Miami did well passing on the QBs...regardless of whether they finish dead last, in my mind it is between them and Seattle for Luck. While many think they will have to trade up, it would not surprise me at all to see one of them be able to stand pat at the #5 spot and have their man (and for all we know it may not even be Luck).

 

[hxperson]

Matthew Bradford

Did you mean Sam Stafford?

 

[Jason Wood]

I agree that things change from year to year. But I think the difference, in this case, is that Luck carried a universal franchise grade across the scouting community from what we're led to believe. He's a guy that everyone sees as an elite QB prospect. Just look at this year. We had four QBs with major question marks go in the Top 12. Luck would've likely graded higher on most people's boards than not just those four obviously, but also the likes of Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez, too.

He's got no discernible weaknesses. He's got size, a strong arm, has shown an ability to make every pro throw, is smart, knows an NFL style offense, and has perfect mechanics.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Side Note: I will go on record here (and I can taste the bile in my mouth as a Jets fan), but I think Miami did well passing on the QBs...regardless of whether they finish dead last, in my mind it is between them and Seattle for Luck. While many think they will have to trade up, it would not surprise me at all to see one of them be able to stand pat at the #5 spot and have their man (and for all we know it may not even be Luck).

Seattle, please...please please.

 

[Eastwood]

if Cam Newton is drafted #1, then yeah, I'd say Luck is a lock.

 

[ImTheScientist]

He's got no discernible weaknesses. He's got size, a strong arm, has shown an ability to make every pro throw, is smart, knows an NFL style offense, and has perfect mechanics.

Add to that list he goes to Stanford, doesn't have character flaws, and comes from a great upbringing.

 

[CalBear]

I agree that things change from year to year. But I think the difference, in this case, is that Luck carried a universal franchise grade across the scouting community from what we're led to believe. He's a guy that everyone sees as an elite QB prospect. Just look at this year. We had four QBs with major question marks go in the Top 12. Luck would've likely graded higher on most people's boards than not just those four obviously, but also the likes of Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez, too.He's got no discernible weaknesses. He's got size, a strong arm, has shown an ability to make every pro throw, is smart, knows an NFL style offense, and has perfect mechanics.

Ryan Leaf had no discernible weaknesses, too. I think Luck's stock is going to fall a good bit this year with his coach and offensive line leaving.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Luck is the best QB prospect since Manning, IMO. He has the fewest flaws of any QB coming in the league in quite some time. With guys like Bradford, Leinart, Stafford, etc. there were some scouts that liked them and some that didn't. I have yet to see a scout who didn't love Andrew Luck. I would bet a pretty sizable amount of money he is the #1 pick next year, and I think he will be a candidate for the mid first round area in dynasty league rookie drafts next year. He is that good.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I agree that things change from year to year. But I think the difference, in this case, is that Luck carried a universal franchise grade across the scouting community from what we're led to believe. He's a guy that everyone sees as an elite QB prospect. Just look at this year. We had four QBs with major question marks go in the Top 12. Luck would've likely graded higher on most people's boards than not just those four obviously, but also the likes of Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez, too.He's got no discernible weaknesses. He's got size, a strong arm, has shown an ability to make every pro throw, is smart, knows an NFL style offense, and has perfect mechanics.

Ryan Leaf had no discernible weaknesses, too. I think Luck's stock is going to fall a good bit this year with his coach and offensive line leaving.

Well except for his personality. It was known and discussed before the draft but dismissed as not too big of a deal. Obviously it was. I don't think we have to worry about that with Luck.

 

[Sweet Love]

Matthew Bradford

Did you mean Sam Stafford?

LOL...Sam Bradford, Matt Stafford...I'll change it and thanks for the catch.

 

[Joe Summer]

Based on what happened with Locker, Andrew Luck could basically take a dump on the 50-yard-line and still get drafted in the top-10.

 

[Sweet Love]

I agree that things change from year to year. But I think the difference, in this case, is that Luck carried a universal franchise grade across the scouting community from what we're led to believe. He's a guy that everyone sees as an elite QB prospect. Just look at this year. We had four QBs with major question marks go in the Top 12. Luck would've likely graded higher on most people's boards than not just those four obviously, but also the likes of Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez, too.He's got no discernible weaknesses. He's got size, a strong arm, has shown an ability to make every pro throw, is smart, knows an NFL style offense, and has perfect mechanics.

But didn't we hear the same about Matt Leinert...good kid, size, smarts...winner. Maybe, maybe questions about the arm, but we are talking he was thought to be closer to Jeff George than Chad Pennington in that regard. Plus, he will have a new coach and possibly new system (or at least tweaks to it). Also, Stanford had a helluva year, but they are not deep like a USC, Alabama or LSU. Who knows how the people around him will play? Schools like Stanford, go with what they have, they don't plug in a failing first rounder for a high second rounder. I realize he had this grade, but leading up to his senior year, so did Leinert. He may not miss a beat, but what happens if he throws for 20 TDs and the next VY, Cam, etc. emerges from no where and reels off 25 TDs plus 10 rushing in a mjor conference?

 

[Grimace59]

Big thing with Locker and Leinart, they were looked at franchise QB's NOT the next Payton Manning. Andrew Luck will still be the #1 pick next year, even is it's the Panther picking #1 again next year.

 

[Jason Wood]

I agree that things change from year to year. But I think the difference, in this case, is that Luck carried a universal franchise grade across the scouting community from what we're led to believe. He's a guy that everyone sees as an elite QB prospect. Just look at this year. We had four QBs with major question marks go in the Top 12. Luck would've likely graded higher on most people's boards than not just those four obviously, but also the likes of Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez, too.He's got no discernible weaknesses. He's got size, a strong arm, has shown an ability to make every pro throw, is smart, knows an NFL style offense, and has perfect mechanics.

But didn't we hear the same about Matt Leinert...good kid, size, smarts...winner. Maybe, maybe questions about the arm, but we are talking he was thought to be closer to Jeff George than Chad Pennington in that regard. Plus, he will have a new coach and possibly new system (or at least tweaks to it). Also, Stanford had a helluva year, but they are not deep like a USC, Alabama or LSU. Who knows how the people around him will play? Schools like Stanford, go with what they have, they don't plug in a failing first rounder for a high second rounder. I realize he had this grade, but leading up to his senior year, so did Leinert. He may not miss a beat, but what happens if he throws for 20 TDs and the next VY, Cam, etc. emerges from no where and reels off 25 TDs plus 10 rushing in a mjor conference?

Sure, but you're debating two separate things here.Are you questioning why everyone thinks Luck will go #1, or whether he'll be successful in the NFL?Leinart was a high end prospect, for sure, but he wasn't on the level of Luck. Again, it gets back to universal grades.Anything can happen, but right now it's hard to think Luck isn't the #1 prospect because a) he would've gone #1 this year, b) it's been a long time since a QB was as universally praised, and c) a lot of QBs that were CLEARLY inferior to him from a pre-NFL scouting perspective, just went very high, including #1 overall.

 

[pantherclub]

I said this in another thread, but if the Panthers get the #1 pick again this year (not likely I know but they are in the running) then there is simply no way they pass on Luck. The dude will be the best qb in teh league in 3 years. He has the arm, the legs, the brain the total package. There are simply not enough picks to trade for a franchise qb. How many picks would Elway or Peyton be coming out? There simply isnt a number.

Luck is the best college QB i have ever seen. His audibles vs Vtech were nothing short of amazing.

 

[Matt Waldman]

As much as I think Andrew Luck is the most refined QB to come out since Peyton Manning I think this is a great question. It's very possible that Stanford could have a downturn in overall team play and Luck doesn't perform as well statistically or he makes some decisions that he'll be criticized for and his draft stock could drop. The one thing evaluators hate to do is not find a flaw in a player's game. It makes them sound like they don't understand the game if they don't have something to criticize or analyze with any depth.

If Luck has to rush throws or make riskier decisions due to a downturn in his offense, he'll surely be criticized by some for that. Same thing if he throws the ball away so much that evaluators claim he plays it too safe.

I believe the question underscores a good point: we don't know if Luck will stay the top guy or drop in the eyes of the NFL. We don't always know how the NFL will perceive a player from one year to the next.

However, I do believe that the players you mentioned as examples are players that were seen as top prospects by people like Mortensen, Todd McShay and Mel Kiper. In many cases these guys were PROJECTING further development from these quarterbacks as seniors and when it didn't happen the stock dropped in their eyes. Since they are on ESPN, it sounds like the player dropped in value. But former scouts and those affiliated with NFL teams have said that Locker was never seen as the top prospect based on his sophomore and junior years - only as a guy with potential to develop into one.

Leinart to some degree represented a blind spot that I think people have for QBs from top, winning programs with tons of talent around the. He never had the arm or pocket presence.

Bradford is an example of the nitpicking that occurs prior to the draft. However, I'd say if you're drafted in the top 3-5 picks, it's not much different perception-wise as being the No.1 overall. Maybe to folks who value the status or look at contracts, but not in view of a player's ability. I'd say the same is true of players drafted in the top 15 picks.

 

[pantherclub]

There is a zero percent chance that Luck is not the #1 next year. He is just that good. No matter what happens during the season, bad stats, injuries it doesnt matter.

 

[_lurker_]

Oh, I hope he declares for the Supplemental Draft!

 

[Sweet Love]

I agree that things change from year to year. But I think the difference, in this case, is that Luck carried a universal franchise grade across the scouting community from what we're led to believe. He's a guy that everyone sees as an elite QB prospect. Just look at this year. We had four QBs with major question marks go in the Top 12. Luck would've likely graded higher on most people's boards than not just those four obviously, but also the likes of Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez, too.He's got no discernible weaknesses. He's got size, a strong arm, has shown an ability to make every pro throw, is smart, knows an NFL style offense, and has perfect mechanics.

But didn't we hear the same about Matt Leinert...good kid, size, smarts...winner. Maybe, maybe questions about the arm, but we are talking he was thought to be closer to Jeff George than Chad Pennington in that regard. Plus, he will have a new coach and possibly new system (or at least tweaks to it). Also, Stanford had a helluva year, but they are not deep like a USC, Alabama or LSU. Who knows how the people around him will play? Schools like Stanford, go with what they have, they don't plug in a failing first rounder for a high second rounder. I realize he had this grade, but leading up to his senior year, so did Leinert. He may not miss a beat, but what happens if he throws for 20 TDs and the next VY, Cam, etc. emerges from no where and reels off 25 TDs plus 10 rushing in a mjor conference?

Sure, but you're debating two separate things here.Are you questioning why everyone thinks Luck will go #1, or whether he'll be successful in the NFL?Leinart was a high end prospect, for sure, but he wasn't on the level of Luck. Again, it gets back to universal grades.Anything can happen, but right now it's hard to think Luck isn't the #1 prospect because a) he would've gone #1 this year, b) it's been a long time since a QB was as universally praised, and c) a lot of QBs that were CLEARLY inferior to him from a pre-NFL scouting perspective, just went very high, including #1 overall.

Wood, I see your point, so I will leave it at this...you are basing your evaluation (or the universal scouting evaluation) in a world known as 2010 Stanford...by skipping the draft (and I DON'T want this thread to turn into his decision on skipping), he is now also going to be evaluated on 2011 Stanford also. Not one, NOT ONE scout knows how he will do in 2011 if all things were equal, let alone without his HC and majority of his line. That is my point...we have no clue what we are going to get and neither do the scouts. For all we know, Harbaugh is like Fassel times 10 and makes us wonder why we doubted Smith was taken #1 overall...not likely, but I think you get my point in that we have no clue what Luck will be like without Harbaugh on a team that frankly, is not deep in talent. He may rise to the occasion and kill the few thoughts as to why he is not the "lost Manning brother", but there is also a chance (as documented above) as to why this decision may expose enough flaws in his game to knock him from #1 overall and even behind another QB. So with that said, how could we annoint him #1?

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I agree that things change from year to year. But I think the difference, in this case, is that Luck carried a universal franchise grade across the scouting community from what we're led to believe. He's a guy that everyone sees as an elite QB prospect. Just look at this year. We had four QBs with major question marks go in the Top 12. Luck would've likely graded higher on most people's boards than not just those four obviously, but also the likes of Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez, too.He's got no discernible weaknesses. He's got size, a strong arm, has shown an ability to make every pro throw, is smart, knows an NFL style offense, and has perfect mechanics.

Ryan Leaf had no discernible weaknesses, too. I think Luck's stock is going to fall a good bit this year with his coach and offensive line leaving.

Ryan Leaf could never go to Stanford

 

[Sweet Love]

As much as I think Andrew Luck is the most refined QB to come out since Peyton Manning I think this is a great question. It's very possible that Stanford could have a downturn in overall team play and Luck doesn't perform as well statistically or he makes some decisions that he'll be criticized for and his draft stock could drop. The one thing evaluators hate to do is not find a flaw in a player's game. It makes them sound like they don't understand the game if they don't have something to criticize or analyze with any depth.

If Luck has to rush throws or make riskier decisions due to a downturn in his offense, he'll surely be criticized by some for that. Same thing if he throws the ball away so much that evaluators claim he plays it too safe.

I believe the question underscores a good point: we don't know if Luck will stay the top guy or drop in the eyes of the NFL. We don't always know how the NFL will perceive a player from one year to the next.

However, I do believe that the players you mentioned as examples are players that were seen as top prospects by people like Mortensen, Todd McShay and Mel Kiper. In many cases these guys were PROJECTING further development from these quarterbacks as seniors and when it didn't happen the stock dropped in their eyes. Since they are on ESPN, it sounds like the player dropped in value. But former scouts and those affiliated with NFL teams have said that Locker was never seen as the top prospect based on his sophomore and junior years - only as a guy with potential to develop into one.

Leinart to some degree represented a blind spot that I think people have for QBs from top, winning programs with tons of talent around the. He never had the arm or pocket presence.

Bradford is an example of the nitpicking that occurs prior to the draft. However, I'd say if you're drafted in the top 3-5 picks, it's not much different perception-wise as being the No.1 overall. Maybe to folks who value the status or look at contracts, but not in view of a player's ability. I'd say the same is true of players drafted in the top 15 picks.

I agree with this thought, yet who has been saying "Luck will the first QB selected, yet not the first player selected", versus "Luck will be the #1 overall in 2012"? I have not seen that post as of yet...

 

[EBF]

Have you seen him play? I have watched almost every throw of his college career. The guy is amazing. He's great at managing drives and leading the team down the field for a score. The reason scouts love him is because:

- He's 6'4" 230 with enough arm strength to make every NFL throw.

- He's mobile.

- He's extremely accurate.

- He reads the field well and checks down when primary targets aren't open.

- He makes quick decisions and rarely makes a mistake.

- He has demonstrated the ability to digest a complicated playbook and wield it effectively.

- He's a hard worker with good intelligence and character.

Does he benefit from a good supporting cast? Sure. FB Owen Marecic and WR Ryan Whalen were just drafted. WR Chris Owusu will be drafted higher next year. WR Doug Baldwin will get a shot in free agency. TE Coby Fleener is an NFL prospect for 2012. TE Zach Ertz looks like a future pro. OL Jonathan Martin and David De Castro will play on Sundays. RB Stepfan Taylor will probably be a pro. C Chase Beeler was an NCAA All-American. And of course there's Harbaugh, a quality coach who understood how to recruit and utilize talent.

It works both ways though. Part of the reason those people looked good is because of Luck. He doesn't get sacked because he doesn't hold the ball. He makes quick decisions and either throws it away or tucks and runs when nothing is open. He helps his WRs and TEs by putting the ball in good places where they have a chance to make a play.

I'd say about the only weakness that I saw in his game last year was his deep ball. He sometimes floated it. I think he can fix this though because he seems to have enough arm strength to do well in this category.

As for other QBs who were in a similar situation only to see their stock drop, there are obvious differences:

Matt Leinart - He was surrounded by a supporting cast that makes Luck's look poor. Guys like Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Dwayne Jarrett, and Mike Williams were DOMINANT at that level. The OL and defense were also stacked. They definitely set Leinart up for success. In terms of Leinart's individual skills, he's a party boy with a suspect arm and limited athletic ability. Luck is a better athlete with a much better work ethic.

Jake Locker - Locker's hype was always based on potential, not results. His collegiate stats were poor. He never did anything near what Luck did last season. Here's what Locker did in his junior year vs. what Luck did in redshirt soph. year:

Locker - 2800 passing yards, 58.2% completions, 7.09 yards per attempt, 2:1 TD to INT ratio, 124.2 QB rating

Luck - 3338 passing yards, 70.7% completions, 8.97 yards per attempt, 4:1 TD to INT ratio, 170.2 QB rating

Luck completed at least 70% of his passes in his final eight games last season, topping 80% twice and nearly doing it again vs. Virginia Tech's lauded secondary.

He's the rare player who combines elite first round physical tools with elite first round quarterback intangibles and results. If guys like Gabbert and Locker can be top 10 picks with pedestrian college careers, it would take nothing short of a catastrophe to push Luck outside the top 5.

I just don't see that happening barring career-ending injury. He's older and wiser. The team returns much of its top talent around him. The offensive system that they'll use for 2011 is said to be a "carbon copy" of last year's offense (their new HC is the former OC).

Luck is not quite flawless, but he's certainly the most complete QB to come out of the Pac-10 in the past decade. Don't overthink this one. Sometimes the hype is justified.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Oh, I hope he declares for the Supplemental Draft!

How do fantasy leagues deal with that?

 

[CalBear]

Ryan Leaf could never go to Stanford

Unless he got access to the "Courses of Interest (to dumb athletes)" list:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/09/stanford-athletes-had-acc_n_833655.html

 

[gandalas]

Tell you what, if something catastrophic like a torn ACL or the like would end his season early, I would think that he may not keep his #1 overall status that he would have had this season.

Just look at Willis McGahee...injuries can happen to anyone.

 

[CalBear]

Tell you what, if something catastrophic like a torn ACL or the like would end his season early, I would think that he may not keep his #1 overall status that he would have had this season.Just look at Willis McGahee...injuries can happen to anyone.

I don't think an ACL would do it. Multiple concussions, maybe (which he hasn't had to deal with because he didn't get hit in 2010). A shoulder injury. But generally, if he sits out most of the season he'll still go #1. It's only if he plays and stumbles that he won't.

 

[Lash]

unless he gets every ligament in one of his knees torn on a sack because of a new OL at Stanford

 

[footballsavvy]

I think Luck is an idiot. He stayed his senior year to basically enjoy his youth and spend another year with the guys. I hope he has fun because when you quantify what he possibly gave up it might make most people sick. And I realize there is more to life than money, but it's not like he was making a career changing decision, he was simply delaying his clear path by a mere year. And maybe he can't put a price on "another year with the guys", but I can.

The so called "CBA uncertainty" at the time could basically be interpreted as 1. There will be a new CBA that will dictate lower pay for rookies, or 2. there will not be a new CBA and 2011 will be antoehr uncapped year. The third scneario, in which there is no CBA and no season (lockout upheld) would still eventually result in him getting a "rookie scale" contract, so there is no inherent risk there.

For Luck this basically meant if he comes out this year he has a chance to make over $55 million guaranteed. By waiting until 2012 not only does he risk not going #1 overall due to a drop in play (his coach is gone after all), and risking injury, but he almost guarantees that he will be subject to a very substantial rookie pay scale that will potentially cost him tens of millions of dollars.

I just don't get it.

Whoever he is getting his advice from is either a complete moron, or much smarter than I am (note that he can't be both!)

 

[Sweet Love]

Have you seen him play? I have watched almost every throw of his college career. The guy is amazing. He's great at managing drives and leading the team down the field for a score. The reason scouts love him is because:

- He's 6'4" 230 with enough arm strength to make every NFL throw.

- He's mobile.

- He's extremely accurate.

- He reads the field well and checks down when primary targets aren't open.

- He makes quick decisions and rarely makes a mistake.

- He has demonstrated the ability to digest a complicated playbook and wield it effectively.

- He's a hard worker with good intelligence and character.

Does he benefit from a good supporting cast? Sure. FB Owen Marecic and WR Ryan Whalen were just drafted. WR Chris Owusu will be drafted higher next year. WR Doug Baldwin will get a shot in free agency. TE Coby Fleener is an NFL prospect for 2012. TE Zach Ertz looks like a future pro. OL Jonathan Martin and David De Castro will play on Sundays. RB Stepfan Taylor will probably be a pro. C Chase Beeler was an NCAA All-American. And of course there's Harbaugh, a quality coach who understood how to recruit and utilize talent.

It works both ways though. Part of the reason those people looked good is because of Luck. He doesn't get sacked because he doesn't hold the ball. He makes quick decisions and either throws it away or tucks and runs when nothing is open. He helps his WRs and TEs by putting the ball in good places where they have a chance to make a play.

I'd say about the only weakness that I saw in his game last year was his deep ball. He sometimes floated it. I think he can fix this though because he seems to have enough arm strength to do well in this category.

As for other QBs who were in a similar situation only to see their stock drop, there are obvious differences:

Matt Leinart - He was surrounded by a supporting cast that makes Luck's look poor. Guys like Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Dwayne Jarrett, and Mike Williams were DOMINANT at that level. The OL and defense were also stacked. They definitely set Leinart up for success. In terms of Leinart's individual skills, he's a party boy with a suspect arm and limited athletic ability. Luck is a better athlete with a much better work ethic.

Jake Locker - Locker's hype was always based on potential, not results. His collegiate stats were poor. He never did anything near what Luck did last season. Here's what Locker did in his junior year vs. what Luck did in redshirt soph. year:

Locker - 2800 passing yards, 58.2% completions, 7.09 yards per attempt, 2:1 TD to INT ratio, 124.2 QB rating

Luck - 3338 passing yards, 70.7% completions, 8.97 yards per attempt, 4:1 TD to INT ratio, 170.2 QB rating

Luck completed at least 70% of his passes in his final eight games last season, topping 80% twice and nearly doing it again vs. Virginia Tech's lauded secondary.

He's the rare player who combines elite first round physical tools with elite first round quarterback intangibles and results. If guys like Gabbert and Locker can be top 10 picks with pedestrian college careers, it would take nothing short of a catastrophe to push Luck outside the top 5.

I just don't see that happening barring career-ending injury. He's older and wiser. The team returns much of its top talent around him. The offensive system that they'll use for 2011 is said to be a "carbon copy" of last year's offense (their new HC is the former OC).

Luck is not quite flawless, but he's certainly the most complete QB to come out of the Pac-10 in the past decade. Don't overthink this one. Sometimes the hype is justified.

As always, a well thought out post EBF. I did see him play, and of course thought he was great. I hesitate when something in life gets more exposure...my point bringing up the other guys was not that they are as good as Luck, but that they got more exposure, other guys got a chance to perform against them (not necessarily in the same game, but during the season regardless of position) and they showed enough to bring up debate. I will also say (regardless if warrented), that everyone (including scouts), like the "shiny new toy" and now Luck is not that. I also will bring up the point you made about the offense. Everyone wants to put their stamp on what they do...Wood has been in this thread and I am sure if Joe called him tomorrow and sold him the site "for a song", Wood would at LEAST tweak things in the beginning as it is now his baby...not saying he (or even the new Stanford coach) would go in a different direction, but we all want our identity in what we do, and it may be enough to throw Luck off.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I think Luck is an idiot. He stayed his senior year to basically enjoy his youth and spend another year with the guys. I hope he has fun because when you quantify what he possibly gave up it might make most people sick. And I realize there is more to life than money, but it's not like he was making a career changing decision, he was simply delaying his clear path by a mere year. And maybe he can't put a price on "another year with the guys", but I can.The so called "CBA uncertainty" at the time could basically be interpreted as 1. There will be a new CBA that will dictate lower pay for rookies, or 2. there will not be a new CBA and 2011 will be antoehr uncapped year. The third scneario, in which there is no CBA and no season (lockout upheld) would still eventually result in him getting a "rookie scale" contract, so there is no inherent risk there.For Luck this basically meant if he comes out this year he has a chance to make over $55 million guaranteed. By waiting until 2012 not only does he risk not going #1 overall due to a drop in play (his coach is gone after all), and risking injury, but he almost guarantees that he will be subject to a very substantial rookie pay scale that will potentially cost him tens of millions of dollars.I just don't get it. Whoever he is getting his advice from is either a complete moron, or much smarter than I am (note that he can't be both!)

 

[TheFanatic]

Tell you what, if something catastrophic like a torn ACL or the like would end his season early, I would think that he may not keep his #1 overall status that he would have had this season.Just look at Willis McGahee...injuries can happen to anyone.

I don't think an ACL would do it. Multiple concussions, maybe (which he hasn't had to deal with because he didn't get hit in 2010). A shoulder injury. But generally, if he sits out most of the season he'll still go #1. It's only if he plays and stumbles that he won't.

I agree. Bradford had injury issues his senior year and you know the two will be compared to each other. Sam did pretty well. I'm not exactly sure that Carolina could afford to take him next year 1st overall unless there was a rookie wage scale, but other than that, I can't see him not going 1st overall. Maybe if there's a Suh type player out there and the Rams have the first overall pick... But another Suh will come along in about 24 more years so that shouldn't be an issue.

 

[Insein]

Why is it a given he will go #1 overall next year?

Cam Newton went #1 this year. Luck is a lock to go one next year if the #1 pick has even a semi need at QB. Now if you're asking whether he will be good or not, thats a different question.

 

[Idiot Boxer]

There is a zero percent chance that Luck is not the #1 next year. He is just that good. No matter what happens during the season, bad stats, injuries it doesnt matter.

I disagree. With the Panthers taking Newton, they've pretty much locked up the #1 overall next year. They won't be taking a QB first overall back-to-back years. I put the odds of them trading out at about 50%, so I say there's a 50% chance Luck goes #1 overall.

 

[pantherclub]

There is a zero percent chance that Luck is not the #1 next year. He is just that good. No matter what happens during the season, bad stats, injuries it doesnt matter.

I disagree. With the Panthers taking Newton, they've pretty much locked up the #1 overall next year. They won't be taking a QB first overall back-to-back years. I put the odds of them trading out at about 50%, so I say there's a 50% chance Luck goes #1 overall.

Actually they would take a qb back to back to back. It wouldnt matter though because Luck is that good that he would accelerate your franchise so that you could overcome those wasted picks. With a rookie wage scale in place they would take him. How many picks would a Manning or Elway be worth coming out? There is simply no value. 10 firsts wouldnt make up for the value of a true franchise qb like Manning or Elway. This type of opportunity just doesnt come along hardly ever and when your franchise is in the position to draft him you simply do it. No questions.I know it is unlikely they get the #1 spot again but they sure are in the running. My guess is that they sign a vet qb and win something like 6 games. I wish they would just roll out Newton game one and see what happens.Even the Panthers are not stupid enough to take the best prospect since Manning and who many feel that Luck is even better than Elway because he is smarter.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

Bradford misses most of season, goes 1.

Locker looks as bad as a QB can look his senior year, still goes 8 overall.

His career would have to be ended during the college season IMO for him not to go #1 next year.

 

[CalBear]

There is a zero percent chance that Luck is not the #1 next year. He is just that good. No matter what happens during the season, bad stats, injuries it doesnt matter.

I disagree. With the Panthers taking Newton, they've pretty much locked up the #1 overall next year.

Since 1960, only four times has the same team chosen #1 twice in a row. Two of those were expansion teams in years 1 and 2 of the franchise (Bucs and new Browns). I'd put a lot of money on the Panthers not picking #1 overall next year. They were 8-8 in 2009.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Not only would I not assume that he'll go #1 next year; I wouldn't assume that he would have gone #1 this year.

NFL teams don't fully evaluate juniors until after they declare for the draft. They haven't gone over Luck's game yet with a fine-tooth comb. When they do, they may see weaknesses that drop him down to #4 overall or whatever.

For the same reason, I think it's unwarranted to proclaim that Jake Locker would have gone #1 last year. Nobody really knows, because he wasn't fully evaluated before last year's draft.

 

[pantherclub]

There is a zero percent chance that Luck is not the #1 next year. He is just that good. No matter what happens during the season, bad stats, injuries it doesnt matter.

I disagree. With the Panthers taking Newton, they've pretty much locked up the #1 overall next year.

Since 1960, only four times has the same team chosen #1 twice in a row. Two of those were expansion teams in years 1 and 2 of the franchise (Bucs and new Browns). I'd put a lot of money on the Panthers not picking #1 overall next year. They were 8-8 in 2009.

Its unlikely as you point out but they will be in contention for a top 5 pick at the very least. If they trade Smith as expected and if Dwill leaves then they are way behind the 8 ball to start. Plus Marshall the starting CB is gone and the linebackers are a MASH unit. Tons of holes on this team plus if they trot out Claussen or Newton I just dont see the offense being better than last year.

 

[CalBear]

Its unlikely as you point out but they will be in contention for a top 5 pick at the very least. If they trade Smith as expected and if Dwill leaves then they are way behind the 8 ball to start. Plus Marshall the starting CB is gone and the linebackers are a MASH unit. Tons of holes on this team plus if they trot out Claussen or Newton I just dont see the offense being better than last year.

I don't think they'll be good, but it takes a special brand of bad to get the #1 overall pick.

 

[pantherclub]

Its unlikely as you point out but they will be in contention for a top 5 pick at the very least. If they trade Smith as expected and if Dwill leaves then they are way behind the 8 ball to start. Plus Marshall the starting CB is gone and the linebackers are a MASH unit. Tons of holes on this team plus if they trot out Claussen or Newton I just dont see the offense being better than last year.

I don't think they'll be good, but it takes a special brand of bad to get the #1 overall pick.

If they roll Newton out there with a couple of rookie and 2nd year wr's, a consistently banged up defense that lacks a solid line then you have a recipe for disaster. Teams will load the box and triple dog dare Newton to beat them passing. The Panthers oline is the best unit on this team and the RT just missed the entire year. WIth the schedule they have and the division that they are in add that to a rookie head coach then I can easily see another 3-4 win season.Its like John Clayton said, if Newton cannot beat out Classuen in a qb competition then you really have to question their judgment with taking him.

 

[Idiot Boxer]

Its unlikely as you point out but they will be in contention for a top 5 pick at the very least. If they trade Smith as expected and if Dwill leaves then they are way behind the 8 ball to start. Plus Marshall the starting CB is gone and the linebackers are a MASH unit. Tons of holes on this team plus if they trot out Claussen or Newton I just dont see the offense being better than last year.

I don't think they'll be good, but it takes a special brand of bad to get the #1 overall pick.

If they roll Newton out there with a couple of rookie and 2nd year wr's, a consistently banged up defense that lacks a solid line then you have a recipe for disaster. Teams will load the box and triple dog dare Newton to beat them passing. The Panthers oline is the best unit on this team and the RT just missed the entire year. WIth the schedule they have and the division that they are in add that to a rookie head coach then I can easily see another 3-4 win season.Its like John Clayton said, if Newton cannot beat out Classuen in a qb competition then you really have to question their judgment with taking him.

The schedule is a nightmare. There's nothing in this draft that points to them getting better in the immediate future. I agree that 4 wins is probably a high water mark for this team. Could someone sneak in below that? Certainly. But I'd put Carolina very much in the mix for a top pick, including the #1 overall.

 

[Da Guru]

Carolina would not even have looked at a project like Newton if Luck declared for this year. Luck is simply one of the most NFL ready QBs to come out in years.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Its unlikely as you point out but they will be in contention for a top 5 pick at the very least. If they trade Smith as expected and if Dwill leaves then they are way behind the 8 ball to start. Plus Marshall the starting CB is gone and the linebackers are a MASH unit. Tons of holes on this team plus if they trot out Claussen or Newton I just dont see the offense being better than last year.

I don't think they'll be good, but it takes a special brand of bad to get the #1 overall pick.

If they roll Newton out there with a couple of rookie and 2nd year wr's, a consistently banged up defense that lacks a solid line then you have a recipe for disaster. Teams will load the box and triple dog dare Newton to beat them passing. The Panthers oline is the best unit on this team and the RT just missed the entire year. WIth the schedule they have and the division that they are in add that to a rookie head coach then I can easily see another 3-4 win season.Its like John Clayton said, if Newton cannot beat out Classuen in a qb competition then you really have to question their judgment with taking him.

The schedule is a nightmare. There's nothing in this draft that points to them getting better in the immediate future. I agree that 4 wins is probably a high water mark for this team. Could someone sneak in below that? Certainly. But I'd put Carolina very much in the mix for a top pick, including the #1 overall.

Think about how bad STL was for the last 5-6 years before Bradford stepped in. Horrific. Yet they picked #1 overall only once in that span.Think about how horrific Oakland was in the mid-2000's. The only team in recent memory that rivals those Rams teams. Again, they picked #1 overall once in that stretch.You could take almost every team that picks #1 overall one year (especially if they take a QB) and point out a million ways that there's no way they'll be better the next year, but it very rarely ever actually happens.

 

[Jason Wood]

We're putting the cart before the horse here, but I would say that the odds are slightly better that Carolina will repeat as the worse team than in a normal year, simply because of the labor uncertainty. Unless the stay is overturned, we're looking at no football activity until July (or later). Combine a bad team with a first year coaching staff and a rookie QB, with very little preparation time in the offseason, and you're looking at an awful season.

 

[pantherclub]

We're putting the cart before the horse here, but I would say that the odds are slightly better that Carolina will repeat as the worse team than in a normal year, simply because of the labor uncertainty. Unless the stay is overturned, we're looking at no football activity until July (or later). Combine a bad team with a first year coaching staff and a rookie QB, with very little preparation time in the offseason, and you're looking at an awful season.

Add losing the 2 best players potentially (Smith and Dwill) and not upgrading anywhere (unless you consider Shockey an Upgrade) and the Panthers are right in the mix. I doubt that they get the #1 again but it certainly wouldnt surprise me. Too many variables at play here for them not be horrific.

 

[Thorpe]

Luck is a redshirt Junior and has 2 more years of eligibility left. If he stayed this year with Harbaugh going to the NFL, there has to be a chance he doesn't declare next year either. And I want to see how Luck does this year before I call him the next Manning. Harbaugh was a very good college coach.

 

[Sweet Love]

We're putting the cart before the horse here, but I would say that the odds are slightly better that Carolina will repeat as the worse team than in a normal year, simply because of the labor uncertainty. Unless the stay is overturned, we're looking at no football activity until July (or later). Combine a bad team with a first year coaching staff and a rookie QB, with very little preparation time in the offseason, and you're looking at an awful season.

From a wins perspective, this will be Carolia's saving grace. I always liked John Fox, and felt he made lemonade out of lemons much of the time, but he mailed it in last year. Rivera is a hard nosed guy (like Fox), but is bringing in new energy, and more importantly, new accountability. Fox's "guys" who remain on the Panthers, are no longer "his guys". They have a new coach to impress and it will be enough to get them from that bottom spot in the league. We see it all the time; new coach takes over and they get an "artificial" bump from the previous year's wins. i know they have a tough schedule, plus less time to prepare, but guys like Mangini in NY and Fox himself, took over dreadful teams and made it work in their first year. I see no reason why Rivera can't come up with 4-5 wins and that is enough to put them in that 4-5 spot.

 

[pantherclub]

We're putting the cart before the horse here, but I would say that the odds are slightly better that Carolina will repeat as the worse team than in a normal year, simply because of the labor uncertainty. Unless the stay is overturned, we're looking at no football activity until July (or later). Combine a bad team with a first year coaching staff and a rookie QB, with very little preparation time in the offseason, and you're looking at an awful season.

From a wins perspective, this will be Carolia's saving grace. I always liked John Fox, and felt he made lemonade out of lemons much of the time, but he mailed it in last year. Rivera is a hard nosed guy (like Fox), but is bringing in new energy, and more importantly, new accountability. Fox's "guys" who remain on the Panthers, are no longer "his guys". They have a new coach to impress and it will be enough to get them from that bottom spot in the league. We see it all the time; new coach takes over and they get an "artificial" bump from the previous year's wins. i know they have a tough schedule, plus less time to prepare, but guys like Mangini in NY and Fox himself, took over dreadful teams and made it work in their first year. I see no reason why Rivera can't come up with 4-5 wins and that is enough to put them in that 4-5 spot.

Not denying you at all, but is there really a "new coach bump" in wins? I really have never bothered to pay attention to that "stat" and would be interested to know more about how first year coaches do in their initial season compared to prior years. Thats a good angle to investigate if you like to gamble in vegas at least. I see 4-5 wins as well just on general principle but I also wouldnt be surprised if the wheels came completely off early due to lack of stars, lack of offense and the musical chairs at the qb position. I wonder if they pull Newton if he goes 0-5? Same for Jimmy.If you can point me to a website with this data I will do a little groundwork.

 

[jdswan922]

I think Luck is an idiot. He stayed his senior year to basically enjoy his youth and spend another year with the guys. I hope he has fun because when you quantify what he possibly gave up it might make most people sick. And I realize there is more to life than money, but it's not like he was making a career changing decision, he was simply delaying his clear path by a mere year. And maybe he can't put a price on "another year with the guys", but I can.The so called "CBA uncertainty" at the time could basically be interpreted as 1. There will be a new CBA that will dictate lower pay for rookies, or 2. there will not be a new CBA and 2011 will be antoehr uncapped year. The third scneario, in which there is no CBA and no season (lockout upheld) would still eventually result in him getting a "rookie scale" contract, so there is no inherent risk there.For Luck this basically meant if he comes out this year he has a chance to make over $55 million guaranteed. By waiting until 2012 not only does he risk not going #1 overall due to a drop in play (his coach is gone after all), and risking injury, but he almost guarantees that he will be subject to a very substantial rookie pay scale that will potentially cost him tens of millions of dollars.I just don't get it. Whoever he is getting his advice from is either a complete moron, or much smarter than I am (note that he can't be both!)

I disagree wholeheartedly. First, you cannot assume what is important to you is important to everyone. His reason for going back, as he and his family describe it, is to finish his education. I don't think this is a bad idea because of the short NFL career. What if he has a catastrophic injury early in his career and is forced to retire before he can get a 2nd contract. He has something to fall back on with a degree from Stanford. Secondly, you are also assuming he would have signed for $55M guaranteed, but you are missing the fact that a new CBA would go into effect THIS year and a rookie wage scale likely would have been in place when he signed his contract. In reality, he may be even more intelligent than those that left early. Think about the long-term impact of a pro-longed stoppage of play. Assume the worst case scenario, and we have no football this year. All of the 2011 draftees are sitting on the sidelines with no income while Luck has his room and board paid for. They are not involved in organized football activites while Luck is playing a fulle season of college football honing his craft. You need to look at the situation from someone else's point of view and not your own when criticizing someone's life decision.

 

[EBF]

I think this is a rare case where Carolina just might be bad enough and stuck in a tough enough division to lock up the 1.01 in consecutive seasons. If that happens then I think they have to take Luck and see what they can get for Newton in a trade.

There will be some stiff competition though.

Cincy, Cleveland, Tennessee, Denver, Oakland, Washington, and Minnesota all have terri-bad potential.