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eAngelo Williams - RB - PanthersCiting a source with knowledge of the situation, the Charlotte Observer reports the Panthers plan to keep DeAngelo Williams for 2013.Source: Charlotte ObserverFeb 23 - 10:40 AM
well, there is always next year.......Per rotoworld
Seems to me that if they really thought that Stewart was the answer, they would have moved Williams last year when he was a year younger and could have gotten more for him in trade - unless, of course, you think that Stewart is the one that will be on the trading block.
Do you believe he is not a NFL starting caliber running back? I presume you do not, since you lump him in with a "bunch of other bums". Which is, of course, laughable.Stewart "apologists" do not like him based on his body of work in college. They like him based on what he has shown in the NFL. We aren't talking about a guy who got 5 ypc on 50 carries as a change of pace back... this guy has shown elite talent in every situation, and his efficiency numbers show it.Playing with another elite RB for your whole career (so far) does not mean you are a bum. It is a rare circumstance that two elite RBs in their primes are on the same team for so long. If Williams and Stewart are both on on the roster again, it will be more of the same... RBBC with two excellent talents. And that will suck for fantasy owners again. Talent is not a concern at all for me. Situation with DeAngelo is concern #1, Cam calling his own number at the GL is concern #2, and the possibility that Stewart's nagging injuries has taken away some of his athleticism is concern #3. I can understand staying away from Stewart; I'm not buying unless it is a bargain. But I sure won't be selling in the one league I own him until I see what happens with DeAngelo.But calling him a bum? Wave bye bye to your credibility.'zilladog said:
As I said in my post, he's done very little for fantasy owners. Read that again "FANTASY owners". And continuing to expect something significant from him on your FANTASY team seems to me like people are just gluttons for punishment. And in NFL terms, he's rarely stayed healthy for a long enough stretch of time to make any lasting impression on the Panthers season in the last four years. DWill and Cam have both done more for Carolina on the ground than JStew. He's just not that impressive. Surely I can make observations about football without random people calling my credibility into question, can't I? So much for the credibility of this message board, eh? I think I'll go bump the "what happened to the shark pool?" Thread now.Do you believe he is not a NFL starting caliber running back? I presume you do not, since you lump him in with a "bunch of other bums". Which is, of course, laughable.Stewart "apologists" do not like him based on his body of work in college. They like him based on what he has shown in the NFL. We aren't talking about a guy who got 5 ypc on 50 carries as a change of pace back... this guy has shown elite talent in every situation, and his efficiency numbers show it.Playing with another elite RB for your whole career (so far) does not mean you are a bum. It is a rare circumstance that two elite RBs in their primes are on the same team for so long. If Williams and Stewart are both on on the roster again, it will be more of the same... RBBC with two excellent talents. And that will suck for fantasy owners again. Talent is not a concern at all for me. Situation with DeAngelo is concern #1, Cam calling his own number at the GL is concern #2, and the possibility that Stewart's nagging injuries has taken away some of his athleticism is concern #3. I can understand staying away from Stewart; I'm not buying unless it is a bargain. But I sure won't be selling in the one league I own him until I see what happens with DeAngelo.But calling him a bum? Wave bye bye to your credibility.'zilladog said:
I can't believe that guy disagreed with you and then used facts to back it up. Offensive.As I said in my post, he's done very little for fantasy owners. Read that again "FANTASY owners". And continuing to expect something significant from him on your FANTASY team seems to me like people are just gluttons for punishment. And in NFL terms, he's rarely stayed healthy for a long enough stretch of time to make any lasting impression on the Panthers season in the last four years. DWill and Cam have both done more for Carolina on the ground than JStew. He's just not that impressive. Surely I can make observations about football without random people calling my credibility into question, can't I? So much for the credibility of this message board, eh? I think I'll go bump the "what happened to the shark pool?" Thread now.Do you believe he is not a NFL starting caliber running back? I presume you do not, since you lump him in with a "bunch of other bums". Which is, of course, laughable.Stewart "apologists" do not like him based on his body of work in college. They like him based on what he has shown in the NFL. We aren't talking about a guy who got 5 ypc on 50 carries as a change of pace back... this guy has shown elite talent in every situation, and his efficiency numbers show it.Playing with another elite RB for your whole career (so far) does not mean you are a bum. It is a rare circumstance that two elite RBs in their primes are on the same team for so long. If Williams and Stewart are both on on the roster again, it will be more of the same... RBBC with two excellent talents. And that will suck for fantasy owners again. Talent is not a concern at all for me. Situation with DeAngelo is concern #1, Cam calling his own number at the GL is concern #2, and the possibility that Stewart's nagging injuries has taken away some of his athleticism is concern #3. I can understand staying away from Stewart; I'm not buying unless it is a bargain. But I sure won't be selling in the one league I own him until I see what happens with DeAngelo.But calling him a bum? Wave bye bye to your credibility.'zilladog said:
I am a recent Stewart buyer (he's so cheap now) and like his potential, but just looking at his efficiency numbers is every bit as short-sighted as the people on the other side saying "he can't even win the starting job".His efficiency numbers are good, but he's spent his career in one of the best situations for efficiency numbers possible. EVERYONE has put up great efficiency numbers there. And before the inevitable "DeAngelo is a great RB" too response comes along, Stewart was alson outdone by Mike Goodson in the only year where Goodson received significant carries.Did you know that in Stewart's career he has never led the Panthers in YPC? He tied DeAngelo one year and was behind either him or Goodson every other year. This year was the first year where the Panthers run blocking/system staggered and Stewart's YPC plummeted right along with it.Stewart's value has plummeted not just because he's failed to secure the starting job, but also because him securing the starting job would no longer be nearly as valuable as it once was.We also can't really act like Stewart is just getting the short end of the stick anymore. It's as much his fault as anyone's. He has continued getting dinged up in part-time duty, he re-signed knowing that DeAngelo was around, and they practically handed him the job on a silver platter at midseason this year and he failed to take hold of it. From a management standpoint he's a guy that hasn't out-performed any of his teammates and continues to get hurt in a part-time role, what's the motivation to make him the workhorse?
Regarding his "fantasy owners" disappointment: Stewart was moderately useful as a rookie (880 yards, 10 TDs), very useful in year two (1272 yards, 11 TDs), disappointing in year three, moderately useful in year four (1174 yards, 5 TDs), and useless last year. Certainly not the fantasy stud everybody wanted, but far from useless. He was often on the injury report, but only missed two games in his first four years. He was healthy enough to produce strongly despite being on the injury report.For the record, I only use efficiency numbers as one piece of the evaluation pie. They happen to be objective, so they are a nice tool to dispute subjective posters that do not include any real objective points to back up their opinions. And of course the "DeAngelo is a great RB" too response IS inevitable... the guy has a historically high career YPC. So not having a better YPC than DeAngelo is not really relevant. Just because this is an argument always used by Stewart backers does not make the argument irrelevant.As far as Goodson is concerned... well, I actually like Goodson. He has warts, but he is a talented runner. I had him in every league waiting for McFadden to break down... and they both broke down the same week.
That being said, I'm pretty sure the .0625 ypc advantage Goodson had over Stewart can be chalked up to variance. Do we actually care that Goodson was a sliver better in YPC than Stewart one year? Do we honestly look at that .0625 ypc difference in 2010 as having any predictive use? And when DeAngelo averaged .0446 ypc more than Stewart in 2009, that is useful information? I would say that that is trivia, not useful data.Here's some more trivia: if you filter out both runners' short yardage runs (3rd/4th and 2 or less, and inside the 5 yard line), then Stewart outpaced Williams 5.5078 ypc to 5.4248 ypc that year. Aaaannnnnddd... so what, right? I agree.Stewart "failing to take hold of the job" when it was "handed to him on a silver platter"... seems like there was some kind of mitigating circumstance... what was it? Oh, yeah, this:
Stewart was healthy for exactly ZERO regular season games in 2012. The injury was significant enough to require surgery after the season.This is a very legitimate reason to be wary of Stewart, his feet and ankles have been problematic his whole career. But trying to play on an ankle injured enough to need surgery does not, IMO, qualify Stewart as having failed to grab the job. He did not have a chance to grab it.To wrap it up, I agree wholeheartedly that the Carolina rushing situation was awesome for a while and Stewart (and company) benefited. That is good info to take into consideration. And as I alluded to in my previous post, the situation is not sure to be a great situation going forward, that is also good info to take into consideration. Possibly the biggest caveat emptor is his injury history; maybe he isn't as physically capable as he once was. I'm not sure.I'm not a blind supporter of Stewart. I recognize his injury history, I understand historical context for his successes (and failures), I see the possible fantasy limitations due to Carolina's current situation and offensive philosophy. He may or may not ever reach his potential.But I also know that he is only going to be 26 this month, and that leaves a lot of time to produce if he does become the bell cow. 250 carries and 30 catches can equal 1500 yards... add 8 TDs and you have a top 12 RB. Hell, add ONE TD and you have a top 20 RB. The upside is still clear, IMO.The downside is as well.
Could you please point out where the facts are? I've read the above a couple times and I still can't find 'em. Could you please show me where the shining example of credibility is?Looks to me like a guy giving an opinion and then browbeating the guy who disagrees. Did he have a high efficiency score? Yes. The funny thing about that though is that heading into 2012, according to pro football focus, his efficiency score was 2.29, good for 16th best in the league behind such prestigious rb's as Ben Tate, Toby Gearhart and Isaac Redman. Fwiw, Marshawn Lynch was dead last on the list. https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/19/fantasy-running-back-efficiency-ratings-and-adp/Last December football outsiders did some advanced metrics as well. That list can be found here. I'll let that list speak for itself. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/RBMaybe efficiency scores don't tell you the whole story? Just maybe? Maybe most of these advanced stats systems are inherently faulty and rarely tell you how things will play out in the future and really only do a good job of telling you what happened in the past when it's too late to use the info? I digress, that's a thread for another day. I called him a bum not because he's a terrible football player, he's definitely had his flashes, but because he seems to be yet another in a long List of players who've failed to live up to his price tag for fantasy owners. Mostly due to nagging injuries. DMC and Nicks come to mind. ANYONE is worth a gamble if he's cheap enough. But JStew never seems to be cheap enough. And that's why I don't like him. IMO he's a mid to low end rb2/flex at an rb1 price. No thanks.I can't believe that guy disagreed with you and then used facts to back it up. Offensive.As I said in my post, he's done very little for fantasy owners. Read that again "FANTASY owners". And continuing to expect something significant from him on your FANTASY team seems to me like people are just gluttons for punishment. And in NFL terms, he's rarely stayed healthy for a long enough stretch of time to make any lasting impression on the Panthers season in the last four years. DWill and Cam have both done more for Carolina on the ground than JStew. He's just not that impressive. Surely I can make observations about football without random people calling my credibility into question, can't I? So much for the credibility of this message board, eh? I think I'll go bump the "what happened to the shark pool?" Thread now.Do you believe he is not a NFL starting caliber running back? I presume you do not, since you lump him in with a "bunch of other bums". Which is, of course, laughable.Stewart "apologists" do not like him based on his body of work in college. They like him based on what he has shown in the NFL. We aren't talking about a guy who got 5 ypc on 50 carries as a change of pace back... this guy has shown elite talent in every situation, and his efficiency numbers show it.Playing with another elite RB for your whole career (so far) does not mean you are a bum. It is a rare circumstance that two elite RBs in their primes are on the same team for so long. If Williams and Stewart are both on on the roster again, it will be more of the same... RBBC with two excellent talents. And that will suck for fantasy owners again. Talent is not a concern at all for me. Situation with DeAngelo is concern #1, Cam calling his own number at the GL is concern #2, and the possibility that Stewart's nagging injuries has taken away some of his athleticism is concern #3. I can understand staying away from Stewart; I'm not buying unless it is a bargain. But I sure won't be selling in the one league I own him until I see what happens with DeAngelo.But calling him a bum? Wave bye bye to your credibility.'zilladog said:
250 carries? He has averaged 164 carries a season so far in his NFL career - and 138 a season in his last three seasons - so I'd say it is more than just optimism to suggest that this injury-prone player will suddenly get 250; it is crazy talk. Stewart isn't suddenly gonna become an every down back who gets close to 300 touches a year. Not gonna happen.
This post and the post I originally addressed are significantly different in tone and message. This post does not simply dismiss Stewart as a bum, but gives some thoughtful reasons why you are not interested in him.'zilladog said:
It might, just MAYBE, be possible that a small sliver of a part of the reason Stewart hasn't had a larger load has been the presence of DeAngelo Williams. Do you think that the presence of Williams did not impact Stewart's carries? Injury-prone is an interesting label. It is incontrovertible that Stewart has had nagging injuries, and I would be comfortable saying that it has cost Stewart some touches. It is quite disputable that it is mainly these injuries keeping him from carrying a larger load, and just as disputable that he is more injury-prone than most other RBs. Last season was the first that he missed significant time due to injury. Through his first four seasons he played through his injuries (played 62 of 64 games), and he put up somewhere between good and excellent numbers while doing it.Again, I understand the downside here. I am not a buyer at current prices. But it is baffling that some seem to have written Stewart off. We all have different levels of risk tolerance and different perceptions of what risk actually is. To each his own.'Ghost Rider said:
Guy in my dynasty league just traded Ray Rice for him. Granted, it's a salary cap league and that played a large part but still, the guy trading Rice away used a "it's his year " justification.
Okay, well I agree with you that he isn't worth acquiring at an RB1 price. I just disagree that he'd cost anywhere close to that price in most leagues.
The local writers down here don't know what to expect.I agree something feels off. First, RB Stewart had that strange restructuring that added to this year's cap. Then the Panthers cut DT Edwards and restructed TE Olsen. As of now, they're still over the cap but cutting CB Chris Gamble would quickly bring them below... but for some reason they haven't done that yet. Seems like the new GM has a lot of irons in the fire because the Panthers are in such cap hell this year and next.
I'm curious about his "option bonus" next year. 2013: $715,000 (+ $2.5 million "signing" bonus)
I may be wrong, but I believe a signing bonus cap hit is spread over the length of the contract, while a roster bonus cap hit is fully in the year it was paid. So if it's not renegotiated next year, it looks like J Stew will count $10.5M against the cap next year - all while (if he's a post June 1 cut) half of D Will's cap hit will also apply. That's a whole lot of cap hit for the RB position that they can't figure out how to properly use.'Kleck said:
I think you're right about the roster bonus, and I think I see what they did with Stew's restructuring. It's reported that the $9 million roster bonus for 2014 is now $6.8 million, a difference of 2.2 million. His 2013 salary was cut by $300,000. Those add up to roughly 2.5 million, which is what they gave Stew in a "signing bonus" with the restructuring. So, they are spreading out that 2.5 million over the life of the contract rather than absorbing it in 2013 and 2014. It should save them about $1.8 million in 2014, if my math and info is correct.The restructuring gives the Panthers less incentive to release Stewart in 2014 than they would have originally. Though some have suggested that it could make his contract more attractive in a potential trade.
I believe he is gone and the franchise is just waiting to take the most advantage of cutting him. To me, if I were a team decision maker and looking after only my team and not goodwill towards DWIL, I would hold him and cut him late, get the relief, and hope that by holding him till later that he didn't have many places to find work and he comes back to me on the cheap becuase I know he is on record as saying he loves Carolina so I take away a couple of his options and wait for him to come back to me.
Who said 20 carries/game? As a 3 down back, you don't have to get 20 carries a game to get 20 touches a game.
I hope this comes to fruition. In the past 3 years J Stew has had exactly 3 20+ touch games. Just counting the days till D Will is released.....then crossing my fingers he won't get resigned by Carolina.As an owner of both J Stew and D Will, I'd love for D Will to end up in Denver (reunited with John Fox) and both be "3 down" guys for their teams.
That certainly would be the "pie in the sky" scenario for you as an owner of both. Makes a lot fo sense in real life too.
Agree. I was REALLY hoping when DWIl hit FA a couple of off-seasons ago that he would find himself in Indy. I thought that would have been rediculous for FF. Of course, Manning was hurt and it wouldn't have mattered anyway but now there is a very legit "makes sense" kind of opportunity there. DWIL in Denver would be TOUGH to deal with and whether its McGahee, Moreno or even Hillman there complimenting him, that would be a heck of a stable of RBs.
Yeah, with McGahee coming off injury at age 32 (and due like 2.5 mil) and the staff apparently not enamored with Hillman, they're going to need to bring someone in - be it a depth player or a blue chip. Personally, I think Moreno's salary is very reasonable so I wouldn't be shocked if they brought him back. But I also wouldn't be shocked if they brought in another RB to either compete with him or relegate him to an insurance plan. However, I have seen a headline or two proclaiming he's getting cut. Doesn't make sense, but hey, the Giants just cut Bradshaw which didn't make sense either. Granted Bradshaw was due about twice as much money, but he's probably twice as good and < $4 mil isn't a lot for a back of his caliber. I'm getting off on a tangent here, though...
First of all, did anyone say it was a slam dunk? I think it appeared like the most logical landing spot for him, but I don't think anyone thought it was a foregone conclusion. And this is the NFL, so logic doesn't always prevail - in this case Carolina made an illogical contract offer. One might say DeAngelo was made an offer he could not refuse. However, assuming he is cut, that's not going to happen again. Carolina has a new GM and no money to burn. I honestly think Denver would be the odds on favorite in this scenario. That's not to say it's over a 50% chance, but it would be the biggest piece in a pie chart of likely landing spots should he be cut.Denver has a need at the position
