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The Arian Foster Redraft strategy (1 Viewer)

Shutout

Shutout

Footballguy
I don't even play redraft but this seems like a meaningful topic for a forum like this.

As it appears to be headed, Arian Foster is going to be out until about Week 10 of the NFL season with a groin injury.

So, he will return at the time of the year when FF owners chasing titles need him the most. As injuries weaken rosters, here comes a guy that can put up overall RB1 numbers and he's going to be fresh and he's going to have his future with his team at stake.

But in addition to the fact that a redrafter has to hold him for the lion share of the season, they also have to weigh out the likelihood of if Foster will be used in his normal role when he returns because the Texans could easily be out of the running by the time he returns, the Texans could just "save" him if they other guys doing well, etc.

So, in a redraft league, where (if anywhere) do you draft this guy (or will the redraft strategy be that people start getting itchy on where to pick him up if he somehow went undrafted)? Perhaps people will strategize to draft him with the idea to sell him off in an arms war bid to other teams (or sell him off to obtain their own "missing piece" they need at some point).

How do you guys think this will play out in fantasy leagues this year?

 
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Last year, I seem to recall Josh Gordon going around the 10th round despite facing what was expected to be an 8-10 week suspension. That would probably be a good benchmark for Foster, who figures to be out for a similar period to open the season. Also similar uncertainty regarding the exact timetable or ability to quickly contribute on return.

 
Arodin said:
Last year, I seem to recall Josh Gordon going around the 10th round despite facing what was expected to be an 8-10 week suspension. That would probably be a good benchmark for Foster, who figures to be out for a similar period to open the season. Also similar uncertainty regarding the exact timetable or ability to quickly contribute on return.
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That's a good thought. Kind of similar in the way that people really see a difference-maker being available at a similar point in the season.

I think it is particularly interesting because it is a very high-caliber RB. As the season goes and the scarce position begins thinning out, it is interesting to see a fresh, top-ability player being reinserted.

This will be much more interesting if we hear that "yeah, he's got to sit out till week ten because of the I.R. designation but he's going to be "healthy" after about 4-5 weeks."

 
Arodin said:
Last year, I seem to recall Josh Gordon going around the 10th round despite facing what was expected to be an 8-10 week suspension. That would probably be a good benchmark for Foster, who figures to be out for a similar period to open the season. Also similar uncertainty regarding the exact timetable or ability to quickly contribute on return.
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The difference is that we knew once the suspension was lifted, Gordon was jumping into a full time role ready to go. There are a lot more what ifs with an injury and surgery.
 
Ilov80s said:
Arodin said:
Last year, I seem to recall Josh Gordon going around the 10th round despite facing what was expected to be an 8-10 week suspension. That would probably be a good benchmark for Foster, who figures to be out for a similar period to open the season. Also similar uncertainty regarding the exact timetable or ability to quickly contribute on return.
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The difference is that we knew once the suspension was lifted, Gordon was jumping into a full time role ready to go. There are a lot more what ifs with an injury and surgery.
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That's true but, without knowing particulars, lets say he has surgery next week. He will be 3-4 weeks post-op by the time week one in the NFL starts. That's a long time to get healthy.

 
Definitely worth a mid to late round flyer in deep roster leagues.

In shallow roster leagues, it would depend on a lot of variables but I'd likely stay away.

 
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Initial reaction was - steer clear as I see a very tough season coming for the Texans w/o Foster. Is there value there? Can Blue step in and take the reins? Minimal sample on Blue and when he did play he provided mixed results. Stashing Foster on redraft rosters is going to be rough as the bye week shuffle, injuries and FF busts will bring constraint to rosters. Where would a guy with a firm history of injuries in recent years tend to land (ADP) if he is coming back week 10 (initial projection)? My take is to wait and see if Blue is going to be effective in preseason and how his ADP will shake out. Cannot omit that a guy on the street will jump in as well which might complicate things. Foster is just too much of a risk at this point. Groin injuries + surgery in a high contact space is just too much risk.

 
For me, I'd treat Foster like a very valuable handcuff, maybe insert him on my draft sheet somewhere between Ryan Mathews and Knile Davis. He'll likely get drafted earlier than that in most leagues though so I wouldn't count on that as solid strategy.

 
For me--the greatest impact of the Foster injury is not when to draft Foster--it's how it impacts the first 2 rounds in regards to draft strategy. Some will view this injury as motivation to draft two rbs in the first two rounds--as the "elite" rb pool has been diluted by his injury---while others will view this injury as being more motivation to draft 2 stud wr's (as the rb position has proven to have lots of turnaround--ie--Alfred blue was virtually undraftable 48 hours ago--and now he might have rb2-rb3 value). I could also see this injury raising the ADP and confidence level in drafting guys like Luck or Rodgers. If I had to guess where Foster will/should be drafted in early drafts--my guess would be in the round 8-12 range based on league size.

 
Shutout said:
Ilov80s said:
Arodin said:
Last year, I seem to recall Josh Gordon going around the 10th round despite facing what was expected to be an 8-10 week suspension. That would probably be a good benchmark for Foster, who figures to be out for a similar period to open the season. Also similar uncertainty regarding the exact timetable or ability to quickly contribute on return.
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The difference is that we knew once the suspension was lifted, Gordon was jumping into a full time role ready to go. There are a lot more what ifs with an injury and surgery.
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That's true but, without knowing particulars, lets say he has surgery next week. He will be 3-4 weeks post-op by the time week one in the NFL starts. That's a long time to get healthy.
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True, but he is also a guy with a history of having some nagging tissue issues.

 
I don't mean to hijack the thread, but what's his value now in dynasty formats? I don't have him, but if one was looking to trade for him - what's fair? A future 1st round rookie pick? a 2nd/3rd type WR? He could really help a team with a late season playoff push and through the playoffs.

 
I'd be fine w/ stashing Foster as my RB4 or RB5 in a typical 10-12 team PPR league. Anywhere from rounds 8-12 I could see him going. If I felt good about the RBs and WRs that I had already drafted and was having to choose between drafting a TE, QB, or Foster.. I'd probably go Foster.

 
matttyl said:
I don't mean to hijack the thread, but what's his value now in dynasty formats? I don't have him, but if one was looking to trade for him - what's fair? A future 1st round rookie pick? a 2nd/3rd type WR? He could really help a team with a late season playoff push and through the playoffs.
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I would laugh if someone asked me if I wanted Foster for a future 1st. His value right now is like maybe a future 3rd. They're reporting that his groin pulled completely off the bone - I don't want a 30 year old RB with a laundry list of injuries and a completely torn groin.

I'd bet even money that he's done forever before him putting up a combined 1000 yards for the rest of his career.

 
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He's a waste of a roster spot in most of my leagues. I'd take him in a deeper league but that's it. If he misses 10 weeks you only get him for three weeks before the playoffs. He could be a huge help in the playoffs but you have to get there first.

 
bigmarc27 said:
matttyl said:
I don't mean to hijack the thread, but what's his value now in dynasty formats? I don't have him, but if one was looking to trade for him - what's fair? A future 1st round rookie pick? a 2nd/3rd type WR? He could really help a team with a late season playoff push and through the playoffs.
Click to expand...
I would laugh if someone asked me if I wanted Foster for a future 1st. His value right now is like maybe a future 3rd. They're reporting that his groin pulled completely off the bone - I don't want a 30 year old RB with a laundry list of injuries and a completely torn groin.

I'd bet even money that he's done forever before him putting up a combined 1000 yards for the rest of his career.
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I believe Fred Taylor had a similar injury during the time he was considered injury prone and he came back to have several nice seasons. There is an age difference/mileage difference, etc, but I don't see the injury in itself as being anything near career ending.

 
Groin injuries for RBs are something to avoid a very high percentage of the time. Just because they come back doesn't mean they play or they play a full game. The words "flared up" and "tweak" will be brutal to read.

I would guess if he's back in week 10 (not looking at byes) then week 11,12, and 13 he has ten carries not the full workload you're hoping for.

Strained, pulled....this requires surgery, it's far worse.

I would totally avoid him.

If they're in the playoffs, he might be fine then for playoff FF.

If you google and throw away any results for pulled groin out one week, only stick with significant injuries, I doubt you find any prior history that makes you all warm and fuzzy here.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
He's a waste of a roster spot in most of my leagues. I'd take him in a deeper league but that's it. If he misses 10 weeks you only get him for three weeks before the playoffs. He could be a huge help in the playoffs but you have to get there first.
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I think that is a bit of a myopic view. You're not taking him high to start with so it is not as if you are losing your top pick. A good owner should be able to not worry about their ability of making the playoffs if they are told ahead of time they might lose their 10th round pick for half a season.

Additionally, you can employ a strategy where you have him and you trade him to someone making their own push and it can help you. Maybe you DO struggle and in Week 5 you get WR help for him that helps you make the playoffs. There is value in Foster beyond the points you want from him on your team each week in the first month of the season.

And the gorilla in the room is this is a guy that can absolutely win you a league. A fresh and healthy Arian Foster stepping in just when he's needed most could net you overall RB1-5 points. That is a HUGE advantage at the end of the year when people have lost players and players are slowing down/being rested in real life.

 
Shutout said:
bigmarc27 said:
matttyl said:
I don't mean to hijack the thread, but what's his value now in dynasty formats? I don't have him, but if one was looking to trade for him - what's fair? A future 1st round rookie pick? a 2nd/3rd type WR? He could really help a team with a late season playoff push and through the playoffs.
Click to expand...
I would laugh if someone asked me if I wanted Foster for a future 1st. His value right now is like maybe a future 3rd. They're reporting that his groin pulled completely off the bone - I don't want a 30 year old RB with a laundry list of injuries and a completely torn groin.

I'd bet even money that he's done forever before him putting up a combined 1000 yards for the rest of his career.
Click to expand...
I believe Fred Taylor had a similar injury during the time he was considered injury prone and he came back to have several nice seasons. There is an age difference/mileage difference, etc, but I don't see the injury in itself as being anything near career ending.
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Taylor had knee, hammy, ankle, and toe

I agree with the sentiment though and don't at all think Arian is done. With his mileage, a year off could do wonders.

I don't think there's much of any precedent of a groin injury ending a career

 
Bri said:
Shutout said:
bigmarc27 said:
matttyl said:
I don't mean to hijack the thread, but what's his value now in dynasty formats? I don't have him, but if one was looking to trade for him - what's fair? A future 1st round rookie pick? a 2nd/3rd type WR? He could really help a team with a late season playoff push and through the playoffs.
Click to expand...
I would laugh if someone asked me if I wanted Foster for a future 1st. His value right now is like maybe a future 3rd. They're reporting that his groin pulled completely off the bone - I don't want a 30 year old RB with a laundry list of injuries and a completely torn groin.

I'd bet even money that he's done forever before him putting up a combined 1000 yards for the rest of his career.
Click to expand...
I believe Fred Taylor had a similar injury during the time he was considered injury prone and he came back to have several nice seasons. There is an age difference/mileage difference, etc, but I don't see the injury in itself as being anything near career ending.
Click to expand...
Taylor had knee, hammy, ankle, and toe

I agree with the sentiment though and don't at all think Arian is done. With his mileage, a year off could do wonders.

I don't think there's much of any precedent of a groin injury ending a career
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According to nfl.com, Taylor's groin injury was in 2001, right after 9/11. I honestly don't recall much of it, just that it was something and that he was able to have good seasons down the road.

I remember SJAX having a groin injury that lingered but I'm guessing (speculation) that one of the issues with an injury like this is if it's not significant enough to put you on the shelf and you play through, it's forever getting right. Kind of like Golfer's elbow. So it might actually be best if you're on the shelf and you just heal. Again, just speculation.

 
LittlePhatty said:
mr roboto said:
I traded him for a 2016 first and 2015 third last year
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This is the strategy I recommend as well. That is, if your redraft league allows trading future picks, and if time travel is possible.
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It's one of those things where people just have to have something under their noses to remind them. I would say when Peterson hits the field and tears it up, an owner could wait a month or so into the season and then use Peterson as a realistic age/talent/workload over the years comparison and sell Foster in Dynasty for a 2nd or late 1st if the team adding him is good (both sides would know its a late first and that the team getting him is probably adding a bullet for the 2015 run).

 
Shutout said:
Hawkeye21 said:
He's a waste of a roster spot in most of my leagues. I'd take him in a deeper league but that's it. If he misses 10 weeks you only get him for three weeks before the playoffs. He could be a huge help in the playoffs but you have to get there first.
Click to expand...
I think that is a bit of a myopic view. You're not taking him high to start with so it is not as if you are losing your top pick. A good owner should be able to not worry about their ability of making the playoffs if they are told ahead of time they might lose their 10th round pick for half a season.

Additionally, you can employ a strategy where you have him and you trade him to someone making their own push and it can help you. Maybe you DO struggle and in Week 5 you get WR help for him that helps you make the playoffs. There is value in Foster beyond the points you want from him on your team each week in the first month of the season.

And the gorilla in the room is this is a guy that can absolutely win you a league. A fresh and healthy Arian Foster stepping in just when he's needed most could net you overall RB1-5 points. That is a HUGE advantage at the end of the year when people have lost players and players are slowing down/being rested in real life.
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I'm not talking about wasting a pick, I'm talking about using up a roster spot on my team for a player who may not even play a game. If I'm in a league that has an IR spot then I'd consider but my league doesn't. I only have 6 bench spots and I want those spots for players i can use.

 
9th-10th round sounds about right to me. My leagues have gigantic rosters so holding him is not a problem. Right now I'd rank the similarly drafted guys. I'd rather have Ryan Mathews and Doug Martin, but would pick Foster over Knile Davis, McFadden and such.

 
stick a fork in him because this guy will come back and play again this year brohans take that to the bank

 
Sounds like Pierre and the Texans could not reach an agreement.

I'll personally avoid Foster unless we get some really positive reports, I usually end up making too many pickups to stash someone that's out for 8+ weeks with a questionable timeline like this. Hope he can make it back and play some more, I am a fan.

 
Much of it depends on roster size and other needs on your team that you won't know until during or after the draft.

I had Foster in my main redraft last year and loved the value he brought and obviously the PPG production. I didn't love reading practice reports and fretting over his hamstring every week. That league has deep rosters so I will likely try to stash him if the price is right in auction.

My snake redraft is a 14 team league with shallow rosters and I'm guessing someone will draft him but then have to dump him to the ww at some point.

And FWIW I've had a lot of success in FF over the years but never seem to have success with these upside stash guys. I've been burned repeatedly by the likes of Travis Henry, Jahvid Best, Justin Blackmon, and of course, Josh Gordon last year. All different circumstances but Foster has a bit of the same feel to me. A lot will depend on details that become available over the next few weeks.

Useful thread though.

 
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montana_grizzly_bears said:
Could be like OBJ last year. Most people left him on the wire for the first 7-8 weeks then picked him up on a flyer for the playoff push.
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If I can get Foster of the waiver wire late in the season like I did with OBJ last year then I like it. I'm not wasting a spot on my roster the first half of the year with Foster though.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
Shutout said:
Hawkeye21 said:
He's a waste of a roster spot in most of my leagues. I'd take him in a deeper league but that's it. If he misses 10 weeks you only get him for three weeks before the playoffs. He could be a huge help in the playoffs but you have to get there first.
Click to expand...
I think that is a bit of a myopic view. You're not taking him high to start with so it is not as if you are losing your top pick. A good owner should be able to not worry about their ability of making the playoffs if they are told ahead of time they might lose their 10th round pick for half a season.

Additionally, you can employ a strategy where you have him and you trade him to someone making their own push and it can help you. Maybe you DO struggle and in Week 5 you get WR help for him that helps you make the playoffs. There is value in Foster beyond the points you want from him on your team each week in the first month of the season.

And the gorilla in the room is this is a guy that can absolutely win you a league. A fresh and healthy Arian Foster stepping in just when he's needed most could net you overall RB1-5 points. That is a HUGE advantage at the end of the year when people have lost players and players are slowing down/being rested in real life.
Click to expand...
I'm not talking about wasting a pick, I'm talking about using up a roster spot on my team for a player who may not even play a game. If I'm in a league that has an IR spot then I'd consider but my league doesn't. I only have 6 bench spots and I want those spots for players i can use.
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and plenty of leagues only have 5 roster spots. hes undraftable in both types. and, as you indicate, its that the loss of roster spot that makes him too much of a liability.

 
If the injury is what they say it is with the groin off the bone, then I wouldnt draft him at all. Waste of a pick. He wont play one snap

 
ghostguy123 said:
If the injury is what they say it is with the groin off the bone, then I wouldnt draft him at all. Waste of a pick. He wont play one snap
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Looking at Adrian Peterson's recovery in late 2013/early 2014, he missed the last two games of the season, had surgery in January, and was out until the beginning of May.

 
ghostguy123 said:
cstu said:
ghostguy123 said:
If the injury is what they say it is with the groin off the bone, then I wouldnt draft him at all. Waste of a pick. He wont play one snap
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Looking at Adrian Peterson's recovery in late 2013/early 2014, he missed the last two games of the season, had surgery in January, and was out until the beginning of May.
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It's never good to compare AP to another human
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True, but I think there's a good chance he'll be back by week 13 or 14.

 
No way I can say "good chance". A chance sure. EVerything has to pretty much go perfect, not to mention if he comes back does anyone really think he just walks right into 20 touches and fantasy stardom?

 
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