The FBG effect (1 Viewer)

[Lord Lucan]

Firstly, the following is by no means a criticism of FBG in any way. Just highlighting the massive effect the website/forum/magazine has on the hobby nowadays.

Below are listed some of the Value Plays listed in the magazine. Then the average draft position when the magazine was printed, and the average draft position shown on the website now.

Jon Kitna - QB16 > QB7

Travis Henry - RB20 > RB12

DJ Hackett - WR47 > WR36

Terrell Owens - WR11 > WR5

There are several other examples, both in the undervalued and overvalued players. I'm not saying FBG is the only source to highlight these value plays, but anyone preparing for drafts should not underestimate this site's impact. There's probably no escape from this for the FBG writers, but as soon as I saw the "Perfect Draft" article which highlighted in graphic terms what good value Kitna was this year and advocating taking him in the early 8th round in 12-team leagues, I was pretty certain there was no way he would last that long in shark leagues once the article had been digested.

Whilst I agree with most of the value plays listed, I have had to conclude that these days, the way to find value is to find those occasional FBG recommendations that I strongly disgaree with, and exploit them. The FBG writers have long been fine exponents of the concept that knowing when to go against the crowd is the way forward, but all players in competitive leagues need to realise that, to an extent, these days FBG IS the crowd.

Again, just to emphasise I'm not sure thatt the FBG staff could do anything about this; I'm suggesting that we all need to be more aware than ever of the lemming effect.

 

[LHUCKS]

use it to your advantage

 

[David Yudkin]

Is there any chance that the market conditions and ADPs could have changed on their own even if FBG staff did not have any comments on these guys?

Terrell Owens ranked 2nd last year. One would hope that people would have figured out on their own that he should still be considered a Top 5 WR.

Kitna ranked 6th last year and the Lions have added Calvin Johnson, Marcus Robinson, and Shaun McDonald. Again, did people really need FBG to figure out he was much better than the QB16?

 

[Fullback Fro]

Firstly, the following is by no means a criticism of FBG in any way. Just highlighting the massive effect the website/forum/magazine has on the hobby nowadays.Below are listed some of the Value Plays listed in the magazine. Then the average draft position when the magazine was printed, and the average draft position shown on the website now.Jon Kitna - QB16 > QB7Travis Henry - RB20 > RB12DJ Hackett - WR47 > WR36Terrell Owens - WR11 > WR5There are several other examples, both in the undervalued and overvalued players. I'm not saying FBG is the only source to highlight these value plays, but anyone preparing for drafts should not underestimate this site's impact. There's probably no escape from this for the FBG writers, but as soon as I saw the "Perfect Draft" article which highlighted in graphic terms what good value Kitna was this year and advocating taking him in the early 8th round in 12-team leagues, I was pretty certain there was no way he would last that long in shark leagues once the article had been digested.Whilst I agree with most of the value plays listed, I have had to conclude that these days, the way to find value is to find those occasional FBG recommendations that I strongly disgaree with, and exploit them. The FBG writers have long been fine exponents of the concept that knowing when to go against the crowd is the way forward, but all players in competitive leagues need to realise that, to an extent, these days FBG IS the crowd.Again, just to emphasise I'm not sure thatt the FBG staff could do anything about this; I'm suggesting that we all need to be more aware than ever of the lemming effect.

Most of these trends began the the previous year. If you were to draft in say DEC for the following season, these same guys would be moving up. There situations are changing. Its not rocket science. ITs not just FBG either, its most fantasy news related service that can effectively diagnose information and come up with these conclusions.

 

[Lord Lucan]

Is there any chance that the market conditions and ADPs could have changed on their own even if FBG staff did not have any comments on these guys?Terrell Owens ranked 2nd last year. One would hope that people would have figured out on their own that he should still be considered a Top 5 WR.Kitna ranked 6th last year and the Lions have added Calvin Johnson, Marcus Robinson, and Shaun McDonald. Again, did people really need FBG to figure out he was much better than the QB16?

Depends on how many of the drafts included in the average draft rankings preceded the real world NFL draft. As for Owens, I don't know how much has changed over the last few weeks. Don't underestimate the power of FBGs, and remember, it only takes 1 out of 12 people in a draft to reach for a FBG favourite.

 

[Jason Wood]

While I would love to say we had a major impact on the examples you put forth, if we're to believe the data (i.e., 13-15 million Americans playing fantasy football) and then assume that only a fraction of those have either bought our magazine or subscribed to our site this year, I think you're witnessing a more wide reaching issue of early May ADP data being spotty at best. Let's be honest, those examples you put forth were by and large no brainers. At least to my eyes.

 

[Lord Lucan]

While I would love to say we had a major impact on the examples you put forth, if we're to believe the data (i.e., 13-15 million Americans playing fantasy football) and then assume that only a fraction of those have either bought our magazine or subscribed to our site this year, I think you're witnessing a more wide reaching issue of early May ADP data being spotty at best. Let's be honest, those examples you put forth were by and large no brainers. At least to my eyes.

Yes, but I would also say that FBG has a clear reputation as the number one FF site, with the result that writers for every other site presumably visit regularly - I'm not suggesting plagiarism, just sensible covering of all bases. And you don't need 100% coverage of the 13m or whatever; theremight only be 3 guys in a 12-team league who are FBG readers, but it only takes 1 of those 3 to reach for a player for his ADP to plummet down.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Is there any chance that the market conditions and ADPs could have changed on their own even if FBG staff did not have any comments on these guys?Terrell Owens ranked 2nd last year. One would hope that people would have figured out on their own that he should still be considered a Top 5 WR.Kitna ranked 6th last year and the Lions have added Calvin Johnson, Marcus Robinson, and Shaun McDonald. Again, did people really need FBG to figure out he was much better than the QB16?

You would be surprised. I think there a lot of people who can not think on their own and depend on magazines to make up their minds for them.

 

[Jason Wood]

While I would love to say we had a major impact on the examples you put forth, if we're to believe the data (i.e., 13-15 million Americans playing fantasy football) and then assume that only a fraction of those have either bought our magazine or subscribed to our site this year, I think you're witnessing a more wide reaching issue of early May ADP data being spotty at best. Let's be honest, those examples you put forth were by and large no brainers. At least to my eyes.

Yes, but I would also say that FBG has a clear reputation as the number one FF site, with the result that writers for every other site presumably visit regularly - I'm not suggesting plagiarism, just sensible covering of all bases. And you don't need 100% coverage of the 13m or whatever; theremight only be 3 guys in a 12-team league who are FBG readers, but it only takes 1 of those 3 to reach for a player for his ADP to plummet down.

Ultimately the "why" is irrelevant.What is relevant:

1) It appears that players we highlighted as undervalued in the magazine now appear to be "fairly valued"

2) As a result, there should logically now be NEW players who are undervalued as the ADP has evolved

It's incumbent upon us to continually reassess the situation, and in this case, I think we've done just that. Our recent site update to the Value Plays took into account a much different ADP, and you'll see that because of it, some of those examples are no longer the players we call your attention to.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2007/07valuerb0-1.php

 

[LHUCKS]

While I would love to say we had a major impact on the examples you put forth, if we're to believe the data (i.e., 13-15 million Americans playing fantasy football) and then assume that only a fraction of those have either bought our magazine or subscribed to our site this year, I think you're witnessing a more wide reaching issue of early May ADP data being spotty at best. Let's be honest, those examples you put forth were by and large no brainers. At least to my eyes.

Yes, but I would also say that FBG has a clear reputation as the number one FF site, with the result that writers for every other site presumably visit regularly - I'm not suggesting plagiarism, just sensible covering of all bases. And you don't need 100% coverage of the 13m or whatever; theremight only be 3 guys in a 12-team league who are FBG readers, but it only takes 1 of those 3 to reach for a player for his ADP to plummet down.

I share notes regularly with a key writer for one of the major/corporate sites and I know he visits the site regularly and anonymously.

 

[duaneok66]

agree with the previous poster . . . some of those ADPs will be way off aorund labor day . . .

in which league do you honestly expect Kitna to be drafted lower than 12???

you honestly think Henry's going to be the 20th RB taken in any decent league ???

come on . . .

 

[Lord Lucan]

agree with the previous poster . . . some of those ADPs will be way off aorund labor day . . .in which league do you honestly expect Kitna to be drafted lower than 12???you honestly think Henry's going to be the 20th RB taken in any decent league ???come on . . .

No of course I don't, and that's not the point I'm trying to make. Those were the average draft positions when they were highlighted as value plays in the magazine, that's all. The issue is how much FBG had to do with their progression up the rankings. Fair play to Jason re. his comments about the updates on the value plays - though they are still telling us that Kitna is going at QB13. I'm not sure that the previously-underrated players reverting to where they should be drafted means that other players suddenly become great value though - it just brings us closer to a situation where everyone is being drafted where they should be. It's not like Brett favre has slumped 10 spots because Kitna has gone up 10.

 

[Jason Wood]

agree with the previous poster . . . some of those ADPs will be way off aorund labor day . . .in which league do you honestly expect Kitna to be drafted lower than 12???you honestly think Henry's going to be the 20th RB taken in any decent league ???come on . . .

No of course I don't, and that's not the point I'm trying to make. Those were the average draft positions when they were highlighted as value plays in the magazine, that's all. The issue is how much FBG had to do with their progression up the rankings. Fair play to Jason re. his comments about the updates on the value plays - though they are still telling us that Kitna is going at QB13. I'm not sure that the previously-underrated players reverting to where they should be drafted means that other players suddenly become great value though - it just brings us closer to a situation where everyone is being drafted where they should be. It's not like Brett favre has slumped 10 spots because Kitna has gone up 10.

That's very true. I guess what I should have said more specifically is that, as ADP data comes in, and we revised our Value Plays (we will do this one more time IIRC), we as staff won't be able to pick the "low hanging fruit" next time out. When it was time to submit for the magazine, to me having Kitna in the teens and Henry at RB20 was akin to shooting fish in a barrel. When we redid our article with Kitna at QB13 and Henry at RB14, I still saw enough value to recommend them. But at QB7 and RB12 as you say, it becomes less compelling to single them out as VALUES.

 

[Obie Wan]

agree with the previous poster . . . some of those ADPs will be way off aorund labor day . . .in which league do you honestly expect Kitna to be drafted lower than 12???you honestly think Henry's going to be the 20th RB taken in any decent league ???come on . . .

No of course I don't, and that's not the point I'm trying to make. Those were the average draft positions when they were highlighted as value plays in the magazine, that's all. The issue is how much FBG had to do with their progression up the rankings. Fair play to Jason re. his comments about the updates on the value plays - though they are still telling us that Kitna is going at QB13. I'm not sure that the previously-underrated players reverting to where they should be drafted means that other players suddenly become great value though - it just brings us closer to a situation where everyone is being drafted where they should be. It's not like Brett favre has slumped 10 spots because Kitna has gone up 10.

My guess is that the original ADP used which had Kitna has #16 and Henry #20 was seriously flawed.

 

[duaneok66]

agree with the previous poster . . . some of those ADPs will be way off aorund labor day . . .in which league do you honestly expect Kitna to be drafted lower than 12???you honestly think Henry's going to be the 20th RB taken in any decent league ???come on . . .

No of course I don't, and that's not the point I'm trying to make. Those were the average draft positions when they were highlighted as value plays in the magazine, that's all. The issue is how much FBG had to do with their progression up the rankings. Fair play to Jason re. his comments about the updates on the value plays - though they are still telling us that Kitna is going at QB13. I'm not sure that the previously-underrated players reverting to where they should be drafted means that other players suddenly become great value though - it just brings us closer to a situation where everyone is being drafted where they should be. It's not like Brett favre has slumped 10 spots because Kitna has gone up 10.

My guess is that the original ADP used which had Kitna has #16 and Henry #20 was seriously flawed.

thank you . . . in all fairness; the ADP in June is limited (at best) . . .

 

[Addai's Adidas]

Witness Groupthink

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I believe group think exists, but the ADP posted isn't linited to this site or magazine buyers. As others said, I think it is due to the timing of the magazine release, read "early". In other words, the 1st ADP you're using is not all that indicative of how people draft in August. That's an inherent limitation in using rankings from a magazine as well. Not to detract from FBG or its influence -- FBG will likely change rankings some by Aug, as well

 

[Zuma]

are we giving fbg a little too much credit here...

i know everyone in the shark pool thinks that joe and david walk on water but the reality is their magazine isn't even available in my town or in the large city i live near...

the fact is people can evaluate situations on their own and yes, i know it is hard to believe, but it does not take a village of fbg's to raise fantasy football players...

 

[-OZ-]

are we giving fbg a little too much credit here...i know everyone in the shark pool thinks that joe and david walk on water but the reality is their magazine isn't even available in my town or in the large city i live near...the fact is people can evaluate situations on their own and yes, i know it is hard to believe, but it does not take a village of fbg's to raise fantasy football players...

It's much more likely that the FBG staff simply saw value before everyone else did.