Rovers
Footballguy
I'm game.... but YOU IM me... you wanted the bet. Ball in your court.
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The FBG's Love Affair with Garrard (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Rovers
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Manster
Footballguy
i drafted him as my 2nd QB very late. he filled in for me when McNabb was out. im ok keeping him on my bench and plugging him in if needed.that said, id be scramblin if i had to count on him every week.
grateful zed
Footballguy
let it go people.
dparker713
Footballguy
I did not say you fail to use statistical analysis. I said you failed at understanding how to use statistical analysis. Try reading more closely. And you want to trust your gut, fine. But not all guts are created equal, and not all equally created guts are equally properly informed thereafter.
You've made a blind assertion that you *knew* Garrard would suck today because he was on the road (after the fact no less). Your gut told you to sit him despite the fact that he played 2 road games prior to today - one poor and one good. Also, his home/road splits from previous years do not bear out your assertion. You've failed to show causation or even corrolation. At this point, coincidence is the most likely explanation for his two poor performances being on the road this year.
As for refraining making judgments based on a lack of evidence, isnt that entirely what you're advocating? Sample size is irrelevant. Too many stats. Too much rational thought.
PS - I wasnt making a judgment based upon no fact. I was making a judgment based upon the samples of writing you've provided in this thread, including the cogency of your arguments and the manner in which they were presented. I made an extrapolation from these posts about your submission. So while I can't be 100% sure of my assertion that your submission was crap, I feel fairly confident given the information at hand.
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FantasyTrader
Footballguy
No need to IM you if you have no counter, that's the bet then. $500. Garrard finishes top 20 among fantasy QB's in fantasy points scored per game played by any scoring system. Payment due Feb. 1 - 2010. I'll need your real name, PayPal address and address.
Good luck!
Good luck!
Ladsud
Footballguy
Damn you, now I gotta go dig that out.
smackdaddies
Footballguy
I will take some of that action too. Easy money.
Knight who says Ni
Footballguy
It figures that the one week I need him, when Cutler is on a bye, is the week that Garrard decides to stink up the joint. Ahhh, such is the pain of FF
Tanner9919
Footballguy
oh god, you sound like Chase Stewart, with his 'if you take his perceived stats and 'woulda coulda shoulda' td passes and completions based on the solar eclipse and Mercury rising....he's a top 10 QB' schtick.fact is, Garrard is an also-ran QB, who's nothing more than a below-avg passer..if you're starting Garrard as your #1 QB, you're probably a .500 team at besthe seems to be an 'every-other-week' inconsistent player..
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sandlotshrink
Footballguy
He killed me this week in the subscriber contest with Rodgers on a bye. It does hold hope that his game was potentially effected that much by the absence of Sims-Walker who I picked up in another league.
TidesofWar
Footballguy
I started him in 2 Leagues for Brees and Rivers Bye weeks - and he may have cost me both games
massraider
Footballguy
For real.
Power Monster
The Midnight Stalker
I started him and he contributed to the loss along with Calvin Johnson. I had Cutler on the bye week. My first hunch when looking at the schedule @ Seattle was no way. Then I figured that the Jags would roll in and be competitive based on the last few weeks. Never in my wildest FF dreams would I think a shutout. Hass came back and the defense roared with the crowd and you tip your hat. That was a tough loss all the way around. I think this just shows that a healthy Seattle team at home is a very tough squad. You win and you lose but you learn. Still a lot of games to go.
Kuz
Footballguy
Tanner9919 said:
Garrard has been frustrating this year. He's had 3 good games & 2 horrible ones. He hasn't been consistent this year & it really looks like Dodds missed this one.. I like quite a bit of the Football guys stuff but he is going to whiff this year with his Garrard love..
Rovers
Footballguy
LOL... sure, I'll bet 500 bucks with a complete stranger on the internet. I don't gamble big money especially with some guy on the net... FF is a hobby. Take a hike. I doubt you'de pay anyway. I would not either, so I decline. You want a friendly bet, 20 bucks or something, fine. 500? please... get real. It never ceases to amaze me how hostile some people can get on a MB. Instead of just a discussion, personal insults rarely contribute to an exchange of ideas, even when people disagree. My writing is lousy? Based on an informal exchange like this thread? Is that intuition? Gut feel?FantasyTrader said:
I think I made my point. I also think this thread has outlived any possible usefulness it might have had. In the meantime, I will attempt to deal Garrard. It's FF. It's supposed to be fun. 500 dollars... LMAO.FantasyTrader
Footballguy
I'm not the guy that said your writing is lousy, that was someone else. I never insulted you anywhere in this thread. I was just looking for a wager. Sorry that you felt threatened by it somehow. If you wouldn't pay a bet that you lost anyway, that's all I need to know about you.LOL... sure, I'll bet 500 bucks with a complete stranger on the internet. I don't gamble big money especially with some guy on the net... FF is a hobby. Take a hike. I doubt you'de pay anyway. I would not either, so I decline. You want a friendly bet, 20 bucks or something, fine. 500? please... get real. It never ceases to amaze me how hostile some people can get on a MB. Instead of just a discussion, personal insults rarely contribute to an exchange of ideas, even when people disagree. My writing is lousy? Based on an informal exchange like this thread? Is that intuition? Gut feel?FantasyTrader said:I think I made my point. I also think this thread has outlived any possible usefulness it might have had. In the meantime, I will attempt to deal Garrard. It's FF. It's supposed to be fun. 500 dollars... LMAO.
The guy hs had 3 good games out of 5 so far. First week was rough but the next three were very good from a fantasy production standpoint.
This week was alot like Week 1 and people are ready to cut him for a bag of balls. Go ahead and do that...the other owners in your league will thank you.
This week was alot like Week 1 and people are ready to cut him for a bag of balls. Go ahead and do that...the other owners in your league will thank you.
Rovers
Footballguy
The writing comment and other comments were not directed at you. I declined the bet...because it's a silly amount of money, and I don't know you from Adam. So, because I have no interest in betting 500 bucks with a complete stranger, who I have no solid reason to trust, I declined. Had I accepted, I would have paid. I simply have no interest in wagering that sort of money. So, I decline. I would pay any bet I have lost. Always have, always will. I would not accept a bet I was not willing to pay. Understand?I'm not the guy that said your writing is lousy, that was someone else. I never insulted you anywhere in this thread. I was just looking for a wager. Sorry that you felt threatened by it somehow. If you wouldn't pay a bet that you lost anyway, that's all I need to know about you.LOL... sure, I'll bet 500 bucks with a complete stranger on the internet. I don't gamble big money especially with some guy on the net... FF is a hobby. Take a hike. I doubt you'de pay anyway. I would not either, so I decline. You want a friendly bet, 20 bucks or something, fine. 500? please... get real. It never ceases to amaze me how hostile some people can get on a MB. Instead of just a discussion, personal insults rarely contribute to an exchange of ideas, even when people disagree. My writing is lousy? Based on an informal exchange like this thread? Is that intuition? Gut feel?FantasyTrader said:I think I made my point. I also think this thread has outlived any possible usefulness it might have had. In the meantime, I will attempt to deal Garrard. It's FF. It's supposed to be fun. 500 dollars... LMAO.
Tau837
Footballguy
I had the same situation - Garrard in for Cutler and CJ also in my lineup. And I'll almost certainly lose this week, where if I had just a decent performance from Garrard I'd have a chance to win tonight. Disappointing.
Mr. Anonymous
Footballguy
I drafted Garrard, following FBG's positioning of him (which is really two positions: the QBBC positioning and then Dodds had him as a marginal QB#1).
I'd say he has been a modest disappointment relative to my expectations but not a disaster.
I'm 5-0 and lead my league in scoring by a wide margin. Drafting weak QBs was part of a larger play to be stronger elsewhere.
Trent Edwards being nowhere near a reasonable #2QB / schedule filler has been the bigger disappointment.
That said, he did have a terrible week. My only coaching mistake this week was not starting Edwards with his -2 points for Garrards -4 points.
I'd say he has been a modest disappointment relative to my expectations but not a disaster.
I'm 5-0 and lead my league in scoring by a wide margin. Drafting weak QBs was part of a larger play to be stronger elsewhere.
Trent Edwards being nowhere near a reasonable #2QB / schedule filler has been the bigger disappointment.
That said, he did have a terrible week. My only coaching mistake this week was not starting Edwards with his -2 points for Garrards -4 points.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I get EXACTLY what you are saying - Garrard is a great QB1 play Week 6 at home against the Rams. I totally agree.
like thisI get EXACTLY what you are saying - Garrard is a great QB1 play Week 6 at home against the Rams. I totally agree.
as long as the coach gets you can sit your best receiver a quarter or half but still play him!
Rovers
Footballguy
Football, and by extension, FF, is not a science. It isn't about number crunching, trends and sample sizes. The game is an emotional one. Bad teams can beat good ones. Any given Sunday. Rankings almost always fail to take the intangibles into account.
I once submitted an article to FBG in one of their conntests, and it was about gut feel, intangables, and how numbers analysis is faulted. Naturally, it was rejected, because only statistical analysis is what they wanted to see. Gut feel is a combination of one's cumulative experience, gathering of information and projecting based on that. It is the human element. It is what I have found to be more reliable than hard numbers and projections. It is not what FF sites have to sell.
Case in point.... my gut feel says Clowney scores for the Jets Monday night. Let's see how that works out. No one has Clowney projected for squat.
Intuition... gut feel... OK, it didn't go for a TD, but a 54 yard catch for a WR who hasn't even caught a cold this year so far. Did any number crunchers see this coming?
I once submitted an article to FBG in one of their conntests, and it was about gut feel, intangables, and how numbers analysis is faulted. Naturally, it was rejected, because only statistical analysis is what they wanted to see. Gut feel is a combination of one's cumulative experience, gathering of information and projecting based on that. It is the human element. It is what I have found to be more reliable than hard numbers and projections. It is not what FF sites have to sell.
Case in point.... my gut feel says Clowney scores for the Jets Monday night. Let's see how that works out. No one has Clowney projected for squat.
Intuition... gut feel... OK, it didn't go for a TD, but a 54 yard catch for a WR who hasn't even caught a cold this year so far. Did any number crunchers see this coming?
PizzaDeliveryGuy
extra sausage
TOOT TOOT
lyon812
Footballguy
I don't think I'd count as a detractor, since I haven't posted on this thread. However, with Stuckey traded, Cotchery hobbled by a bad hamstring and Edwards new to the team, I also thought that Clowney would catch a few balls. I wouldn't necessarily call that an amazing prediction, though. I actually thought that Edwards, Clowney, and Keller would all catch 4-5 balls. 2 out of 3, I guess. Too bad the one I needed to catch them is Keller. =)
cubbie5150
Footballguy
Wut?How is that relevant to Davod Garrard?
footballnerd
Footballguy
Then don't start him on the road! Jeez quit your whining dude. If you drafted Garrard you likely have a 2 QB match up based combination, use your damn brain.
cubbie5150
Footballguy
Before week 5's debacle, I was planning on using Garrard weeks 5 & 6 (also own Cutler & Hass), but even though the Jags have a great home matchup, not sure if I have the stones to start him again. However, it's mostly b/c I own MJD too, and I hate starting multiple guys in the same offense when it's as mediocre as Jacksonville's. Week 5 served to hammer that point home to me. It's not like starting, say, Peyton & Addai, to say the very least.
Rovers
Footballguy
This thread has gotten pretty comical. Now I am whining? No, just disputing Garrard's ranking. In fact, I will start Garrard over Matt Ryan this week against St L at home, and sell high. Just talking about a player I think is over valued. Then the poster who said I brought this up AFTER the fact.... in the one league I own Garrard, I benched him at Seattle for Matt Ryan. also on the road against the previously very tough SF D, and I posted a link to that league... so no, I was off the Garrard bandwagon already. That is pretty much proof of that fact. I posted that link because some other knuckleheads were claiming the only reason I started this thread was because I started Garrard. Wrong again.footballnerd said:
Then some complete stranger calls me out to wager $500 dollars.
That was then followed up by another knucklehead who says my Clowney prohection wasn't amazing. LOL... did I say it was? I just said it was another intuitive projection. Clowney had just ONE reception in an NFL regilar season game prior to last night. It was a sleeper pick. Yes, Cotchery was banged up, ut Brad Smith was supposed to replace him. I can't believe I am nearly apologizing for projecting a nice sleeper pick that worked out pretty OK. I never claimed it was an "amazing" projection!
Message boards.... they do make me laugh!
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
For the record, you called ME out:
"Define your terms, if you want a bet. Garrard ends up outside the top 20? What is it you want here? just to attack, or actually back up yer mouth?"
Then hid behind the fact that you don't know me. Check my post count and sig. I'm pretty easy to track down. For the record, I think the bet would have been very close. I think you're onto something with Garrard sucking on the road and I highly doubt he finishes top 12. I just happen to think he's a lock for top 20 and that you're way off pegging him as a "borderline backup", that's all.
"Define your terms, if you want a bet. Garrard ends up outside the top 20? What is it you want here? just to attack, or actually back up yer mouth?"
Then hid behind the fact that you don't know me. Check my post count and sig. I'm pretty easy to track down. For the record, I think the bet would have been very close. I think you're onto something with Garrard sucking on the road and I highly doubt he finishes top 12. I just happen to think he's a lock for top 20 and that you're way off pegging him as a "borderline backup", that's all.
PizzaDeliveryGuy
extra sausage
Maybe you should look at how you deliver your message and not the content of it.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
a 3 game sample size, with one being against Indy, is downright silly. What isn't silly is that way that good passrushing teams have knifed through the jax OL.from sportslineLOL... I'm all worked up? Bashing what I think is a very over valued player is some sort of emotional outburst? Not quite. just some FF opinion that goes beyond the typical number crunching, trend ananlysis tht fails to takre into account some of the things I have already mentioned in this thread. I thinkl Garrard might well have another good week next Sunday against the Rams at home. Garrard is good at home against bad teams. Otherwise, he sucks. Not an emotional outburst...., just an astute FF gut feel projection. Try just reading what I post, instead of attempting to find some hidden agenda. I don't operate that way.
Billy Costigan Jr
Footballguy
A side benefit to waiting late and drafting Garrard is that he's more than serviceable as a starting QB, and you can draft a much stronger group players in the RB/WR/TE positions.
The benefit to that is a good starting lineup and better depth than most.
This week, with injuries and Bye weeks looming for teams with QB (but not RB/WR/TE depth)...I've received numerous offers from teams essentially informing me that (to paraphrase) my QB wasn't good enough to go the distance in the playoffs, so maybe they can help me out.
K = Keepers (3)
D = Drafted
W = Waiver Pick-up
T = Traded For
BEFORE TRADE:
Starters:
QB-David Garrard-JAC (D)
RB-Adrian Peterson-MIN (K)
WR-Andre Johnson-HOU (K)
TE-Antonio Gates-SDC (D)
PK-David Akers-PHI (D)
DF-New Orleans Saints-NOS (W)
F1-Larry Fitzgerald-ARI (K)
F2-Nate Burleson-SEA (W)
F3-Rashard Mendenhall-PIT (D)
Bench
QB-Shaun Hill-SFO (W)
RB-Ricky Williams-MIA (D)
WR-Miles Austin-DAL (W)
WR-Santonio Holmes-PIT (D)
WR-Braylon Edwards-NYJ (D)
RB-Chester Taylor-MIN (D)
==========
Gave Up:
RB-Rashard Mendenhall-PIT
WR-Braylon Edwards-NYJ
WR-Santonio Holmes-PIT
Received:
QB-Matt Schaub-HOU
RB-Frank Gore-SFO
RB-Glen Coffee-SFO
==========
AFTER TRADE:
Starters:
QB-Matt Schaub-HOU (T)
RB-Adrian Peterson-MIN (K)
WR-Andre Johnson-HOU (K)
TE-Antonio Gates-SDC (D)
PK-David Akers-PHI (D)
DF-New Orleans Saints-NOS (W)
F1-Frank Gore-SFO (T)
F2-Larry Fitzgerald-ARI (K)
F3-Nate Burleson-SEA (W)
Bench:
QB-David Garrard-JAC (D)
QB-Shaun Hill-SFO (W)
RB-Ricky Williams-MIA (D)
WR-Miles Austin-DAL (W)
RB-Chester Taylor-MIN (D)
RB-Glen Coffee-SFO (T)
The other team started 3-0 in dominating fashion, and is in danger of falling apart as his injuries mount, and especially this week killed him with BYEs.
So he (a McNabb owner) felt he had to give up Schaub with Frank Gore, and gamble that Mendenhall keeps the bulk of work and that Edwards returns to super elite upper tier WR status.
After the draft, I had anticipated trying to make a trade for a QB around the week 6-9 mark, but it never occured to me that I could improve my starting lineup in such a dramatic fashion.
Starters:
QB-QB #3
RB-RB #1
WR-WR #3
TE-TE #5
PK-PK #10
DF-DF #3
F1-RB #10
F2-WR #5
F3-WR #6
Bench:
QB-QB #14
QB-QB #23
RB-RB #11
WR-WR #9
RB-RB #38 (Handcuff to RB#1)
RB-RB #39 (Handcuff to RB#10)
The benefit to that is a good starting lineup and better depth than most.
This week, with injuries and Bye weeks looming for teams with QB (but not RB/WR/TE depth)...I've received numerous offers from teams essentially informing me that (to paraphrase) my QB wasn't good enough to go the distance in the playoffs, so maybe they can help me out.
K = Keepers (3)
D = Drafted
W = Waiver Pick-up
T = Traded For
BEFORE TRADE:
Starters:
QB-David Garrard-JAC (D)
RB-Adrian Peterson-MIN (K)
WR-Andre Johnson-HOU (K)
TE-Antonio Gates-SDC (D)
PK-David Akers-PHI (D)
DF-New Orleans Saints-NOS (W)
F1-Larry Fitzgerald-ARI (K)
F2-Nate Burleson-SEA (W)
F3-Rashard Mendenhall-PIT (D)
Bench
QB-Shaun Hill-SFO (W)
RB-Ricky Williams-MIA (D)
WR-Miles Austin-DAL (W)
WR-Santonio Holmes-PIT (D)
WR-Braylon Edwards-NYJ (D)
RB-Chester Taylor-MIN (D)
==========
Gave Up:
RB-Rashard Mendenhall-PIT
WR-Braylon Edwards-NYJ
WR-Santonio Holmes-PIT
Received:
QB-Matt Schaub-HOU
RB-Frank Gore-SFO
RB-Glen Coffee-SFO
==========
AFTER TRADE:
Starters:
QB-Matt Schaub-HOU (T)
RB-Adrian Peterson-MIN (K)
WR-Andre Johnson-HOU (K)
TE-Antonio Gates-SDC (D)
PK-David Akers-PHI (D)
DF-New Orleans Saints-NOS (W)
F1-Frank Gore-SFO (T)
F2-Larry Fitzgerald-ARI (K)
F3-Nate Burleson-SEA (W)
Bench:
QB-David Garrard-JAC (D)
QB-Shaun Hill-SFO (W)
RB-Ricky Williams-MIA (D)
WR-Miles Austin-DAL (W)
RB-Chester Taylor-MIN (D)
RB-Glen Coffee-SFO (T)
The other team started 3-0 in dominating fashion, and is in danger of falling apart as his injuries mount, and especially this week killed him with BYEs.
So he (a McNabb owner) felt he had to give up Schaub with Frank Gore, and gamble that Mendenhall keeps the bulk of work and that Edwards returns to super elite upper tier WR status.
After the draft, I had anticipated trying to make a trade for a QB around the week 6-9 mark, but it never occured to me that I could improve my starting lineup in such a dramatic fashion.
Starters:
QB-QB #3
RB-RB #1
WR-WR #3
TE-TE #5
PK-PK #10
DF-DF #3
F1-RB #10
F2-WR #5
F3-WR #6
Bench:
QB-QB #14
QB-QB #23
RB-RB #11
WR-WR #9
RB-RB #38 (Handcuff to RB#1)
RB-RB #39 (Handcuff to RB#10)
