Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Alright, so your all set on who to take as your RB1 in round 2 and you are going to go with best value be it RB/WR in the 2nd. Most people think they can put off getting WR till much later in the draft. And I think that is partly true. You can find a guy that might exceed his draft slot but by how much? When FF boils down to the raw numbers, the fact remains that only a handful of players a the different positions make a true difference and lead you to the championship. In fact even guys that have average years but manage to keep you in the hunt and then explode in weeks 14-17 will also be real difference makers.
So let’s get back on point. After the 1st 7-8WR that go from Steve Smith to A.Boldin you get about 17-18 WR that will make a push to try and be top 10 and maybe even the lucky will pick 1 that cracks the top5...but who? Let’s take a look at the 2nd tier of WR and see if we can find the best of those guys with the most upside that can help propel us and cover up for those awful RB2 we kept taking in the 2nd round.
I have separated them into 3 categories that will surely spark some debate. I find 4 of them have the most potential to crack the top10 or top5…mostly because they have either done it before or simply seem to be in a great situation. Let’s start with those I find risky and move towards the safer bets. I am listing them in order of the FBG projections in case there is any questions where I pulled these from.
Roy Williams: Detroit , ADP Early 4th
Risk-High, Reward-High
He had 88 targets last season so those targets are going to have to move up. He only caught 42 of them but did manage 7 TD. With Martz calling the plays you have to imagine his targets are going to go up. I have been impressed with his circus catches, but not as impressed with his making the “normal” catch and his presence on the field. Detroit lost a lot of games last season, not sure how many TD of his were when Detroit was trailing…what does that matter, right? Well I think most top5-10 WR are catching the ball even when their team is not trailing.
I think Roy is gifted but he also has had a hard time finishing the season. He has missed 5 complete games in his 1st 2 years and parts of others…that’s almost half a season. I just would like to see this guy actually produce 80 catches and 1100 yds before I select him over other WR that are safer picks right now.
Darrell Jackson: Seattle, ADP Late 3rd
Risk-Medium, Reward-Medium/High
Jackson didn’t so much in 2005 because of injury. I was sure this could be the Steve Smith of 2006 but he still has lingering injuries it seems. But also Jackson has cracked 80 receptions just once…and one other season he managed 70. His ceiling appears to be between 1,000-1,200 yds and 6-9 TD…good stats but probably not gonna leap into the top5 or 10…there is a ceiling and you have to ask yourself if his current injury situation is worth the risk. I would rather try for a WR that I know I can get production out of.
TJ Houshyomama: Cinci, ADP Early 5th
Risk-Medium, Reward-Medium
Housh is in an interesting spot. First off he might not have Palmer zipping him the ball and if Wright is going to be the guy for awhile or god forbid the season, all Bengal WR should be notched down. But the biggest threat to Housh might just be Chris Henry. If Henry can stop all his of field stuff, he has a real chance to push Housh for playing time. Housh saw 115 targets and Henry 50. What if those targets get a little more evenly distributed…you could see Housh take a decline from 950/7, down to maybe 750/5 and that is not what out want out of your WR2. I actually think housh is a major risk if you start him every week as your WR2…he is not nearly as good running 2nd on this team as Reggie Wayne is for Indy…we’ll get to Reggie a little later in this program.
Deion Branch: NE, ADP Late 5th/Early 6th
Risk-Medium, Reward Medium
As we speak Branch is in the middle of a bitter holdout. This pick makes sense if you already have a good WR1 and maybe even a 2 and are looking for some umph out of your WR3…the reason is if Branch holds out he obviously is not producing. Even if he starts I do not see him being too much more than 1,000 yds and 5-6 TD…he hasn’t given us a reason to think it yet. He looks great in Super Bowls though. He is short and has already had 1 injury plagued season. Holdouts can sometimes be candidates for injuries because they do not go thru the riggers of camp. Branch is good but he still should be in camp…this would be one of the last guys I would want to draft as my WR1.
Javon Walker: Denver, ADP Late 4th/Early 5th
Risk-Medium/High, Reward Medium/High
If Walker is totally recovered then this pick gets a little better. I am also leery of how many actual targets he will snare. Rod Smith is really the No.1 on Denver even if we all think he is older and lost a step. I think it is lofty to expect Walker to put up numbers close to what he did pre-injury in GB. No WR has had 1,200yds and 12-13 TD in Denver with Shanny as a HC. They run the ball a lot and their play action is set up beautifully because of it. I hate to project but 70 catches for 950 yds and 6-7 TD seems like a pretty good year for him after the injury and in Denver behind Rod Smith. Denver has a pretty good defense and no reason to fire the ball all over the place. When they get a lead they are going to run the ball and shorten the games. They hosted the NFC Championship last year…that is being moved to Miami this season but they still would like to try and retain what they did last year.
Joey Galloway: Tampa Bay, ADP Late 5th/Early 6th
Risk-Medium, Reward Medium
To think Joey will repeat last season seem short sighted. Michael Clayton was injured most of the season and while he is a little gimpy again this preseason you have to think he will see a lot more targets in 2006. I like Galloway and it was exciting to have snared him on many of my rosters last season, but this year he is highly likely to return to earth. If they are both healthy you could see Galloway in the 800-1,000 yds and 6-8TD area. Maybe that is a good return for this part in the draft but I feel simply lucky that I got him last year with a much later round pick, this year he seems a bit pricey.
Andre Johnson: Houston, ADP Late 4th/Early 5th
Risk-High, Reward-Medium
AJ has almost busted the 1,000 yd mark as a rookie and blew up for 1,100 yds in his 2nd season. Injuries set him back but he has not been a TD machine and that is something you have to do in order to crack the top10 usually. Add in Mould who will want his fair share of looks and I think AJ will still see a ceiling of around 1,000 yds and 5-6TD. He will look good doing it and we will hope he ends up eventually on another team but to me AJ shows a lot of risk.
OK, now I have shown you 6 WR in the 2nd tier that I think are kind of risky. But I think its OK to grab one of them if you already have a stud WR and if you can also grab a Steady Eddie as your WR3 with the hopes of using him as WR2 many weeks as well. IN a start 3WR league you don’t want to have Roy Williams, TJ Housh, and Joey Galloway as your top3 WR…I think you could be in some real trouble. Let’s look at some of the Steady Eddies.
Donald Driver: GB, ADP Middle/End 4th round
Risk-low, Reward-Medium/High
Driver is going to catch 80 balls and rack up 1,100+ yds as long as he is starting in GB. He is probably the safest pick of any Packer this season. His TD will most likely be between 5-8 for the season and he could be a nice dark horse to finish top10. Why go for a risky player at this point in the draft when you can take him and count on his points.
Hines Ward: Pittsburgh, ADP Middle/End 3rd round
Risk-low, Reward-Medium/High
Now here is a guy that has been top10. 1,000/4, 1,300/12, 1,150/10, 1000/4, 975/11…this guy has posted 10+ TD 3 of the last 5 seasons. He also is a lock for 1,000 yds. He had over 150+ targets in ’02 and ’03…those have dropped significantly to around 110 the past 2 years…but as Rothy improves the Steelers will throw the ball more. In fact they might have trouble running as much as they would like so look for them to take to the air with Heath Miller as a nice weapon at TE, and Ward flying all over the place on the outside. What a nice catch in the middle to end of the 3rd round…you might grab a guy that could easily crack the top10 and top15-20 almost certainly.
Santana Moss: Washington, ADP Early 4th
Risk-low, Reward-high
Guy seems to be in an even better situation this year. He likes to go long, Saunders used to utilize Kennison in that way but Moss is far better in the skills department than EK ever was. Seems like he should outpace his ADP. Hard to not see him not reach 900-1,100 yds and 6-9 TD…should be productive. I see Cooley losing catched to Lloyd, not Moss as much.
Derrick Mason: Baltimore, ADP Early/Middle 5th
Risk-low, Reward-Medium
He will not break the top10 but if he can post 1,000 yds and 6-7 TD he becomes a nice safe pick as your WR2 in the 5th round. I see little risk with Mason who will be overjoyed to have McNair throwing to him again.
Eddie Kennison: KC, ADP Middle 6th
Risk-low, Reward-Medium
He is still the WR1 for KC. 900-1100 yds and 5-8 TD have been his norm the past 3 or 4 years. Even with a downtick, he is probably a 800-950 yds and 5 TD at worst type of WR…he is not a steal anymore but he has little risk. Not the upside of other guys around here though.
Rod Smith: Denver, ADP Middle 5th
Risk-low, Reward-Medium
He will love having Walker across from him. 1,000 yds and 5-7 TD seems likely for him. Again he is a safe pick and a perfect WR2 for your team to pair with a Holt or Harrison…then take a riskier WR as your WR3 or WR4.
Again I would stress that I would not want to have just safe picks on my roster either. I don’t think Smith and Mason will make the best 1-2 punch at WR for your team. You won’t lose because of it but you won’t win either.
Alright, I think there are 4 players that have the best potential to crack the top5-10. One of them definitely will be a long shot but you have to like the upside and what he can do once he ahs the ball in his hands.
Chris Chambers: Miami, ADP Middle 3rd
Risk-low/medium, Reward-X-High
Plain and simple. After Holt, Moss, and Harrison he has the most TD over the past 3 seasons with 29. Chambers has been making plays with AJ Feeley, Jay Fiedler, and Gus Ferrotte under center…now he has a guy with a cannon on his shoulder…I like Chambers to do as well as he did last year but he might do it a bit more evenly…he also has the ability to explode…something many in the above tier will not do. Those that do not shy away from Chambers will be rewarded on draft day.
Plaxico Burress: NYGiants, ADP Early 4th
Risk-low, Reward-Medium/High
He didn’t finish strong but neither did Eli manning. I like Burress and the upside. He can muscle guys especially in and around the end zone. As manning gets better so will Burress and his stats. He had 1,200 yds and 7 TD last season yet he seems like an afterthought for a lot of drafters. Don’t fall asleep on a guy entering his prime as a WR. 1,200+ yds seems achievable and his TD could likely see an up tick.
Reggie Wayne: Indy, ADP Early to Middle 3rd
Risk-medium, Reward-X-High
OK, so he was a bit of a disappointment last season. But he has had greatness before and a return to his 2004 form could happen with the departure of Edge and a running game that may take awhile to get on track. We do know the Colts like to throw and can if they wanted to throw almost every down and win most football games. Pairing Wayne with a Holt or Chad Johnson should create a duo where both have top10 and perhaps even top5 potential if things land right.
And my last guy I am putting in this category has a lot of risk but I think he comes with a fair price. I have to think of Antonio Gates from the Chargers. He did not really learn the position of TE till late in his teens and early 20s…and when I see Matt Jones, I see a guy at 6’6” with tremendous size, 4.3 speed, the guy is a freak in a good way. He showed some flashes as a rookie but he is learning the position. He has a coach that wants him to take off…he is in a situation where the veteran WR has retired and the door is wide open. There is no doubt he has the most talent on the team, it simply remains to be seen if he can carry that over to the field. With a late 7th/early 8th round price(that’s going up as we speak), he certainly should be a guy you have on your radar as a WR3 for your team. I don’t think he will bust and he could very well boom for you. And of the top 25 projected you have to love his upside.
Thoughts, vibes, and criticisms welcome.
So let’s get back on point. After the 1st 7-8WR that go from Steve Smith to A.Boldin you get about 17-18 WR that will make a push to try and be top 10 and maybe even the lucky will pick 1 that cracks the top5...but who? Let’s take a look at the 2nd tier of WR and see if we can find the best of those guys with the most upside that can help propel us and cover up for those awful RB2 we kept taking in the 2nd round.
I have separated them into 3 categories that will surely spark some debate. I find 4 of them have the most potential to crack the top10 or top5…mostly because they have either done it before or simply seem to be in a great situation. Let’s start with those I find risky and move towards the safer bets. I am listing them in order of the FBG projections in case there is any questions where I pulled these from.
Roy Williams: Detroit , ADP Early 4th
Risk-High, Reward-High
He had 88 targets last season so those targets are going to have to move up. He only caught 42 of them but did manage 7 TD. With Martz calling the plays you have to imagine his targets are going to go up. I have been impressed with his circus catches, but not as impressed with his making the “normal” catch and his presence on the field. Detroit lost a lot of games last season, not sure how many TD of his were when Detroit was trailing…what does that matter, right? Well I think most top5-10 WR are catching the ball even when their team is not trailing.
I think Roy is gifted but he also has had a hard time finishing the season. He has missed 5 complete games in his 1st 2 years and parts of others…that’s almost half a season. I just would like to see this guy actually produce 80 catches and 1100 yds before I select him over other WR that are safer picks right now.
Darrell Jackson: Seattle, ADP Late 3rd
Risk-Medium, Reward-Medium/High
Jackson didn’t so much in 2005 because of injury. I was sure this could be the Steve Smith of 2006 but he still has lingering injuries it seems. But also Jackson has cracked 80 receptions just once…and one other season he managed 70. His ceiling appears to be between 1,000-1,200 yds and 6-9 TD…good stats but probably not gonna leap into the top5 or 10…there is a ceiling and you have to ask yourself if his current injury situation is worth the risk. I would rather try for a WR that I know I can get production out of.
TJ Houshyomama: Cinci, ADP Early 5th
Risk-Medium, Reward-Medium
Housh is in an interesting spot. First off he might not have Palmer zipping him the ball and if Wright is going to be the guy for awhile or god forbid the season, all Bengal WR should be notched down. But the biggest threat to Housh might just be Chris Henry. If Henry can stop all his of field stuff, he has a real chance to push Housh for playing time. Housh saw 115 targets and Henry 50. What if those targets get a little more evenly distributed…you could see Housh take a decline from 950/7, down to maybe 750/5 and that is not what out want out of your WR2. I actually think housh is a major risk if you start him every week as your WR2…he is not nearly as good running 2nd on this team as Reggie Wayne is for Indy…we’ll get to Reggie a little later in this program.
Deion Branch: NE, ADP Late 5th/Early 6th
Risk-Medium, Reward Medium
As we speak Branch is in the middle of a bitter holdout. This pick makes sense if you already have a good WR1 and maybe even a 2 and are looking for some umph out of your WR3…the reason is if Branch holds out he obviously is not producing. Even if he starts I do not see him being too much more than 1,000 yds and 5-6 TD…he hasn’t given us a reason to think it yet. He looks great in Super Bowls though. He is short and has already had 1 injury plagued season. Holdouts can sometimes be candidates for injuries because they do not go thru the riggers of camp. Branch is good but he still should be in camp…this would be one of the last guys I would want to draft as my WR1.
Javon Walker: Denver, ADP Late 4th/Early 5th
Risk-Medium/High, Reward Medium/High
If Walker is totally recovered then this pick gets a little better. I am also leery of how many actual targets he will snare. Rod Smith is really the No.1 on Denver even if we all think he is older and lost a step. I think it is lofty to expect Walker to put up numbers close to what he did pre-injury in GB. No WR has had 1,200yds and 12-13 TD in Denver with Shanny as a HC. They run the ball a lot and their play action is set up beautifully because of it. I hate to project but 70 catches for 950 yds and 6-7 TD seems like a pretty good year for him after the injury and in Denver behind Rod Smith. Denver has a pretty good defense and no reason to fire the ball all over the place. When they get a lead they are going to run the ball and shorten the games. They hosted the NFC Championship last year…that is being moved to Miami this season but they still would like to try and retain what they did last year.
Joey Galloway: Tampa Bay, ADP Late 5th/Early 6th
Risk-Medium, Reward Medium
To think Joey will repeat last season seem short sighted. Michael Clayton was injured most of the season and while he is a little gimpy again this preseason you have to think he will see a lot more targets in 2006. I like Galloway and it was exciting to have snared him on many of my rosters last season, but this year he is highly likely to return to earth. If they are both healthy you could see Galloway in the 800-1,000 yds and 6-8TD area. Maybe that is a good return for this part in the draft but I feel simply lucky that I got him last year with a much later round pick, this year he seems a bit pricey.
Andre Johnson: Houston, ADP Late 4th/Early 5th
Risk-High, Reward-Medium
AJ has almost busted the 1,000 yd mark as a rookie and blew up for 1,100 yds in his 2nd season. Injuries set him back but he has not been a TD machine and that is something you have to do in order to crack the top10 usually. Add in Mould who will want his fair share of looks and I think AJ will still see a ceiling of around 1,000 yds and 5-6TD. He will look good doing it and we will hope he ends up eventually on another team but to me AJ shows a lot of risk.
OK, now I have shown you 6 WR in the 2nd tier that I think are kind of risky. But I think its OK to grab one of them if you already have a stud WR and if you can also grab a Steady Eddie as your WR3 with the hopes of using him as WR2 many weeks as well. IN a start 3WR league you don’t want to have Roy Williams, TJ Housh, and Joey Galloway as your top3 WR…I think you could be in some real trouble. Let’s look at some of the Steady Eddies.
Donald Driver: GB, ADP Middle/End 4th round
Risk-low, Reward-Medium/High
Driver is going to catch 80 balls and rack up 1,100+ yds as long as he is starting in GB. He is probably the safest pick of any Packer this season. His TD will most likely be between 5-8 for the season and he could be a nice dark horse to finish top10. Why go for a risky player at this point in the draft when you can take him and count on his points.
Hines Ward: Pittsburgh, ADP Middle/End 3rd round
Risk-low, Reward-Medium/High
Now here is a guy that has been top10. 1,000/4, 1,300/12, 1,150/10, 1000/4, 975/11…this guy has posted 10+ TD 3 of the last 5 seasons. He also is a lock for 1,000 yds. He had over 150+ targets in ’02 and ’03…those have dropped significantly to around 110 the past 2 years…but as Rothy improves the Steelers will throw the ball more. In fact they might have trouble running as much as they would like so look for them to take to the air with Heath Miller as a nice weapon at TE, and Ward flying all over the place on the outside. What a nice catch in the middle to end of the 3rd round…you might grab a guy that could easily crack the top10 and top15-20 almost certainly.
Santana Moss: Washington, ADP Early 4th
Risk-low, Reward-high
Guy seems to be in an even better situation this year. He likes to go long, Saunders used to utilize Kennison in that way but Moss is far better in the skills department than EK ever was. Seems like he should outpace his ADP. Hard to not see him not reach 900-1,100 yds and 6-9 TD…should be productive. I see Cooley losing catched to Lloyd, not Moss as much.
Derrick Mason: Baltimore, ADP Early/Middle 5th
Risk-low, Reward-Medium
He will not break the top10 but if he can post 1,000 yds and 6-7 TD he becomes a nice safe pick as your WR2 in the 5th round. I see little risk with Mason who will be overjoyed to have McNair throwing to him again.
Eddie Kennison: KC, ADP Middle 6th
Risk-low, Reward-Medium
He is still the WR1 for KC. 900-1100 yds and 5-8 TD have been his norm the past 3 or 4 years. Even with a downtick, he is probably a 800-950 yds and 5 TD at worst type of WR…he is not a steal anymore but he has little risk. Not the upside of other guys around here though.
Rod Smith: Denver, ADP Middle 5th
Risk-low, Reward-Medium
He will love having Walker across from him. 1,000 yds and 5-7 TD seems likely for him. Again he is a safe pick and a perfect WR2 for your team to pair with a Holt or Harrison…then take a riskier WR as your WR3 or WR4.
Again I would stress that I would not want to have just safe picks on my roster either. I don’t think Smith and Mason will make the best 1-2 punch at WR for your team. You won’t lose because of it but you won’t win either.
Alright, I think there are 4 players that have the best potential to crack the top5-10. One of them definitely will be a long shot but you have to like the upside and what he can do once he ahs the ball in his hands.
Chris Chambers: Miami, ADP Middle 3rd
Risk-low/medium, Reward-X-High
Plain and simple. After Holt, Moss, and Harrison he has the most TD over the past 3 seasons with 29. Chambers has been making plays with AJ Feeley, Jay Fiedler, and Gus Ferrotte under center…now he has a guy with a cannon on his shoulder…I like Chambers to do as well as he did last year but he might do it a bit more evenly…he also has the ability to explode…something many in the above tier will not do. Those that do not shy away from Chambers will be rewarded on draft day.
Plaxico Burress: NYGiants, ADP Early 4th
Risk-low, Reward-Medium/High
He didn’t finish strong but neither did Eli manning. I like Burress and the upside. He can muscle guys especially in and around the end zone. As manning gets better so will Burress and his stats. He had 1,200 yds and 7 TD last season yet he seems like an afterthought for a lot of drafters. Don’t fall asleep on a guy entering his prime as a WR. 1,200+ yds seems achievable and his TD could likely see an up tick.
Reggie Wayne: Indy, ADP Early to Middle 3rd
Risk-medium, Reward-X-High
OK, so he was a bit of a disappointment last season. But he has had greatness before and a return to his 2004 form could happen with the departure of Edge and a running game that may take awhile to get on track. We do know the Colts like to throw and can if they wanted to throw almost every down and win most football games. Pairing Wayne with a Holt or Chad Johnson should create a duo where both have top10 and perhaps even top5 potential if things land right.
And my last guy I am putting in this category has a lot of risk but I think he comes with a fair price. I have to think of Antonio Gates from the Chargers. He did not really learn the position of TE till late in his teens and early 20s…and when I see Matt Jones, I see a guy at 6’6” with tremendous size, 4.3 speed, the guy is a freak in a good way. He showed some flashes as a rookie but he is learning the position. He has a coach that wants him to take off…he is in a situation where the veteran WR has retired and the door is wide open. There is no doubt he has the most talent on the team, it simply remains to be seen if he can carry that over to the field. With a late 7th/early 8th round price(that’s going up as we speak), he certainly should be a guy you have on your radar as a WR3 for your team. I don’t think he will bust and he could very well boom for you. And of the top 25 projected you have to love his upside.
Thoughts, vibes, and criticisms welcome.
I feel that way too, he is a great gamble as a WR2, maybe he could be your WR1 if you open RB-RB-RB...something like SJAX, K.Jones, J.Lewis or something like that...solid but not spectacular.
