The INFLATION Thread, aka “The Putin Price Hike” (5 Viewers)

[BladeRunner]

I was at Disneyland (in CA) all weekend with my brother and nieces, even with the price hikes, place was jam packed the entire time. There is A LOT of people not cutting back on anything.

Like yourself, for example.

You were at Disneyland like those other people you said were not cutting back on anything.

 

[HomerSimpson]

I was at Disneyland (in CA) all weekend with my brother and nieces, even with the price hikes, place was jam packed the entire time. There is A LOT of people not cutting back on anything.

Like yourself, for example.

You were at Disneyland like those other people you said were not cutting back on anything.

Yep. But me and my brother have good jobs, no debt outside of our mortgages and can afford to splurge, I'm afraid a lot of these people are putting it on the credit card and just kicking the can down the road unfortunately.

 

[Sand]

they assert that the record inflation now being experienced is a direct result of the Trillions (with a T) of dollars pumped into the system during the pandemic and specifically pointed out the 1.9T most recently spent (don't tell Joe Manchin).

That was my point about "normal" government spending, not the pandemic related stimulus stuff. I'm 100% on board that the last round of stimulus wasn't likely warranted and contributed to the inflation we are seeing now. That doesn't convince me that "normal" government deficit spending (e.g. pre-pandemic) was the reason that we saw inflation skyrocket. It was more likely a combination of low interest rates + other monetary policies, Trump era tax cuts, trade wars, and messed up supply chains that got broken during the pandemic.

I still think that the monetary policy of the Fed is the largest lever that we can pull to reign in inflation. Cutting government spending can help, but it won't get there without changes in interest rates and the likely slow down in economic growth that will come from that. Finally, I have no reason to believe that tax cuts are the answer here. If anything, rolling back some of the Trump era tax cuts would likely benefit us as it will slow down the economy further and bolster deficit reduction. Those tax cuts were marketed as being "revenue neutral" or "would pay for themselves". That has hardly been the case. That has really hurt the deficit.

Then why are we seeing record tax revenues specifically individual income tax payments? Corporate tax revenues have hit all time highs as well.

Not sure why we're stuck on that. Tax revenues have increased every year and as of now are a 16% increase over FY2017. Those aren't bad numbers.

I was more curious about the deficit comment and wondering how the cuts hurt the deficit if we are collecting record revenues.

They aren't. It has more to do with an administration, let's pull a number out of the air, spending 2T over an above the normal budget and bolstering the deficit numbers.

Trump would and was going to drop 2 Trillion for an infrastructure plan, they were close in 2019 and it was brought up again in 2020 IIRC. If exorbitant government spending isn't your thing then not sure who you have to vote for these days.

Sure, and I disagreed with that. But the two situations are different. One was in a very low inflation or even deflationary environment. The other was in a raging inflationary environment.

Liz Truss learned pretty quick that spending like a madman was a bad move. It's too bad our folks didn't. We're paying for it dearly now. But, hey, I can get a 5k rebate on a 70k EV!

 

[The General]

they assert that the record inflation now being experienced is a direct result of the Trillions (with a T) of dollars pumped into the system during the pandemic and specifically pointed out the 1.9T most recently spent (don't tell Joe Manchin).

That was my point about "normal" government spending, not the pandemic related stimulus stuff. I'm 100% on board that the last round of stimulus wasn't likely warranted and contributed to the inflation we are seeing now. That doesn't convince me that "normal" government deficit spending (e.g. pre-pandemic) was the reason that we saw inflation skyrocket. It was more likely a combination of low interest rates + other monetary policies, Trump era tax cuts, trade wars, and messed up supply chains that got broken during the pandemic.

I still think that the monetary policy of the Fed is the largest lever that we can pull to reign in inflation. Cutting government spending can help, but it won't get there without changes in interest rates and the likely slow down in economic growth that will come from that. Finally, I have no reason to believe that tax cuts are the answer here. If anything, rolling back some of the Trump era tax cuts would likely benefit us as it will slow down the economy further and bolster deficit reduction. Those tax cuts were marketed as being "revenue neutral" or "would pay for themselves". That has hardly been the case. That has really hurt the deficit.

Then why are we seeing record tax revenues specifically individual income tax payments? Corporate tax revenues have hit all time highs as well.

Not sure why we're stuck on that. Tax revenues have increased every year and as of now are a 16% increase over FY2017. Those aren't bad numbers.

I was more curious about the deficit comment and wondering how the cuts hurt the deficit if we are collecting record revenues.

They aren't. It has more to do with an administration, let's pull a number out of the air, spending 2T over an above the normal budget and bolstering the deficit numbers.

Trump would and was going to drop 2 Trillion for an infrastructure plan, they were close in 2019 and it was brought up again in 2020 IIRC. If exorbitant government spending isn't your thing then not sure who you have to vote for these days.

Sure, and I disagreed with that. But the two situations are different. One was in a very low inflation or even deflationary environment. The other was in a raging inflationary environment.

Liz Truss learned pretty quick that spending like a madman was a bad move. It's too bad our folks didn't. We're paying for it dearly now. But, hey, I can get a 5k rebate on a 70k EV!

You don’t think Trump if he won or Republicans would have wanted to pass a similar bill? How is that when Trump constantly talked of this type of deal as Prez and this actual bill got 70 votes in Senate? McConnell and 18 other R Senators voted for it.

 

[shadrap]

You don’t think Trump if he won or Republicans would have wanted to pass a similar bill? How is that when Trump constantly talked of this type of deal as Prez and this actual bill got 70 votes in Senate? McConnell and 18 other R Senators voted for it.

come on. coulda, woulda, shouda, maybe. Biden & cohorts screwed up. deal with the here & now.
Trump?

 

[The General]

You don’t think Trump if he won or Republicans would have wanted to pass a similar bill? How is that when Trump constantly talked of this type of deal as Prez and this actual bill got 70 votes in Senate? McConnell and 18 other R Senators voted for it.

come on. coulda, woulda, shouda, maybe. Biden & cohorts screwed up. deal with the here & now.
Trump?

Yes Biden gets to own what we have now.

We were talking about if there would be a difference if Trump had won and had the same Congress. If you are going to interject it would be appreciated if you follow the conversation we were having.

 

[Sand]

they assert that the record inflation now being experienced is a direct result of the Trillions (with a T) of dollars pumped into the system during the pandemic and specifically pointed out the 1.9T most recently spent (don't tell Joe Manchin).

That was my point about "normal" government spending, not the pandemic related stimulus stuff. I'm 100% on board that the last round of stimulus wasn't likely warranted and contributed to the inflation we are seeing now. That doesn't convince me that "normal" government deficit spending (e.g. pre-pandemic) was the reason that we saw inflation skyrocket. It was more likely a combination of low interest rates + other monetary policies, Trump era tax cuts, trade wars, and messed up supply chains that got broken during the pandemic.

I still think that the monetary policy of the Fed is the largest lever that we can pull to reign in inflation. Cutting government spending can help, but it won't get there without changes in interest rates and the likely slow down in economic growth that will come from that. Finally, I have no reason to believe that tax cuts are the answer here. If anything, rolling back some of the Trump era tax cuts would likely benefit us as it will slow down the economy further and bolster deficit reduction. Those tax cuts were marketed as being "revenue neutral" or "would pay for themselves". That has hardly been the case. That has really hurt the deficit.

Then why are we seeing record tax revenues specifically individual income tax payments? Corporate tax revenues have hit all time highs as well.

Not sure why we're stuck on that. Tax revenues have increased every year and as of now are a 16% increase over FY2017. Those aren't bad numbers.

I was more curious about the deficit comment and wondering how the cuts hurt the deficit if we are collecting record revenues.

They aren't. It has more to do with an administration, let's pull a number out of the air, spending 2T over an above the normal budget and bolstering the deficit numbers.

Trump would and was going to drop 2 Trillion for an infrastructure plan, they were close in 2019 and it was brought up again in 2020 IIRC. If exorbitant government spending isn't your thing then not sure who you have to vote for these days.

Sure, and I disagreed with that. But the two situations are different. One was in a very low inflation or even deflationary environment. The other was in a raging inflationary environment.

Liz Truss learned pretty quick that spending like a madman was a bad move. It's too bad our folks didn't. We're paying for it dearly now. But, hey, I can get a 5k rebate on a 70k EV!

You don’t think Trump if he won or Republicans would have wanted to pass a similar bill? How is that when Trump constantly talked of this type of deal as Prez and this actual bill got 70 votes in Senate? McConnell and 18 other R Senators voted for it.

Yeah, he would have. He's a populist, not a conservative. But we're talking about who actually is in power, not who might have/would have.

 

[The General]

they assert that the record inflation now being experienced is a direct result of the Trillions (with a T) of dollars pumped into the system during the pandemic and specifically pointed out the 1.9T most recently spent (don't tell Joe Manchin).

That was my point about "normal" government spending, not the pandemic related stimulus stuff. I'm 100% on board that the last round of stimulus wasn't likely warranted and contributed to the inflation we are seeing now. That doesn't convince me that "normal" government deficit spending (e.g. pre-pandemic) was the reason that we saw inflation skyrocket. It was more likely a combination of low interest rates + other monetary policies, Trump era tax cuts, trade wars, and messed up supply chains that got broken during the pandemic.

I still think that the monetary policy of the Fed is the largest lever that we can pull to reign in inflation. Cutting government spending can help, but it won't get there without changes in interest rates and the likely slow down in economic growth that will come from that. Finally, I have no reason to believe that tax cuts are the answer here. If anything, rolling back some of the Trump era tax cuts would likely benefit us as it will slow down the economy further and bolster deficit reduction. Those tax cuts were marketed as being "revenue neutral" or "would pay for themselves". That has hardly been the case. That has really hurt the deficit.

Then why are we seeing record tax revenues specifically individual income tax payments? Corporate tax revenues have hit all time highs as well.

Not sure why we're stuck on that. Tax revenues have increased every year and as of now are a 16% increase over FY2017. Those aren't bad numbers.

I was more curious about the deficit comment and wondering how the cuts hurt the deficit if we are collecting record revenues.

They aren't. It has more to do with an administration, let's pull a number out of the air, spending 2T over an above the normal budget and bolstering the deficit numbers.

Trump would and was going to drop 2 Trillion for an infrastructure plan, they were close in 2019 and it was brought up again in 2020 IIRC. If exorbitant government spending isn't your thing then not sure who you have to vote for these days.

Sure, and I disagreed with that. But the two situations are different. One was in a very low inflation or even deflationary environment. The other was in a raging inflationary environment.

Liz Truss learned pretty quick that spending like a madman was a bad move. It's too bad our folks didn't. We're paying for it dearly now. But, hey, I can get a 5k rebate on a 70k EV!

You don’t think Trump if he won or Republicans would have wanted to pass a similar bill? How is that when Trump constantly talked of this type of deal as Prez and this actual bill got 70 votes in Senate? McConnell and 18 other R Senators voted for it.

Yeah, he would have. He's a populist, not a conservative. But we're talking about who actually is in power, not who might have/would have.

I agree that this Biden's issue to own.

To your point of populists versus conservatives - how does this explain current republicans voting for this in the Senate.? 19 of them voted for 2 Trillion.

As a nice touch from many of these folks who conveniently are now budget hawks for the midterms, there are quotes all over the place of them (including those who voted against it) bragging about getting this money for their states or districts.

 

[Sand]

they assert that the record inflation now being experienced is a direct result of the Trillions (with a T) of dollars pumped into the system during the pandemic and specifically pointed out the 1.9T most recently spent (don't tell Joe Manchin).

That was my point about "normal" government spending, not the pandemic related stimulus stuff. I'm 100% on board that the last round of stimulus wasn't likely warranted and contributed to the inflation we are seeing now. That doesn't convince me that "normal" government deficit spending (e.g. pre-pandemic) was the reason that we saw inflation skyrocket. It was more likely a combination of low interest rates + other monetary policies, Trump era tax cuts, trade wars, and messed up supply chains that got broken during the pandemic.

I still think that the monetary policy of the Fed is the largest lever that we can pull to reign in inflation. Cutting government spending can help, but it won't get there without changes in interest rates and the likely slow down in economic growth that will come from that. Finally, I have no reason to believe that tax cuts are the answer here. If anything, rolling back some of the Trump era tax cuts would likely benefit us as it will slow down the economy further and bolster deficit reduction. Those tax cuts were marketed as being "revenue neutral" or "would pay for themselves". That has hardly been the case. That has really hurt the deficit.

Then why are we seeing record tax revenues specifically individual income tax payments? Corporate tax revenues have hit all time highs as well.

Not sure why we're stuck on that. Tax revenues have increased every year and as of now are a 16% increase over FY2017. Those aren't bad numbers.

I was more curious about the deficit comment and wondering how the cuts hurt the deficit if we are collecting record revenues.

They aren't. It has more to do with an administration, let's pull a number out of the air, spending 2T over an above the normal budget and bolstering the deficit numbers.

Trump would and was going to drop 2 Trillion for an infrastructure plan, they were close in 2019 and it was brought up again in 2020 IIRC. If exorbitant government spending isn't your thing then not sure who you have to vote for these days.

Sure, and I disagreed with that. But the two situations are different. One was in a very low inflation or even deflationary environment. The other was in a raging inflationary environment.

Liz Truss learned pretty quick that spending like a madman was a bad move. It's too bad our folks didn't. We're paying for it dearly now. But, hey, I can get a 5k rebate on a 70k EV!

You don’t think Trump if he won or Republicans would have wanted to pass a similar bill? How is that when Trump constantly talked of this type of deal as Prez and this actual bill got 70 votes in Senate? McConnell and 18 other R Senators voted for it.

Yeah, he would have. He's a populist, not a conservative. But we're talking about who actually is in power, not who might have/would have.

I agree that this Biden's issue to own.

To your point of populists versus conservatives - how does this explain current republicans voting for this in the Senate.? 19 of them voted for 2 Trillion.

Morons, the lot of them.

 

[The General]

they assert that the record inflation now being experienced is a direct result of the Trillions (with a T) of dollars pumped into the system during the pandemic and specifically pointed out the 1.9T most recently spent (don't tell Joe Manchin).

That was my point about "normal" government spending, not the pandemic related stimulus stuff. I'm 100% on board that the last round of stimulus wasn't likely warranted and contributed to the inflation we are seeing now. That doesn't convince me that "normal" government deficit spending (e.g. pre-pandemic) was the reason that we saw inflation skyrocket. It was more likely a combination of low interest rates + other monetary policies, Trump era tax cuts, trade wars, and messed up supply chains that got broken during the pandemic.

I still think that the monetary policy of the Fed is the largest lever that we can pull to reign in inflation. Cutting government spending can help, but it won't get there without changes in interest rates and the likely slow down in economic growth that will come from that. Finally, I have no reason to believe that tax cuts are the answer here. If anything, rolling back some of the Trump era tax cuts would likely benefit us as it will slow down the economy further and bolster deficit reduction. Those tax cuts were marketed as being "revenue neutral" or "would pay for themselves". That has hardly been the case. That has really hurt the deficit.

Then why are we seeing record tax revenues specifically individual income tax payments? Corporate tax revenues have hit all time highs as well.

Not sure why we're stuck on that. Tax revenues have increased every year and as of now are a 16% increase over FY2017. Those aren't bad numbers.

I was more curious about the deficit comment and wondering how the cuts hurt the deficit if we are collecting record revenues.

They aren't. It has more to do with an administration, let's pull a number out of the air, spending 2T over an above the normal budget and bolstering the deficit numbers.

Trump would and was going to drop 2 Trillion for an infrastructure plan, they were close in 2019 and it was brought up again in 2020 IIRC. If exorbitant government spending isn't your thing then not sure who you have to vote for these days.

Sure, and I disagreed with that. But the two situations are different. One was in a very low inflation or even deflationary environment. The other was in a raging inflationary environment.

Liz Truss learned pretty quick that spending like a madman was a bad move. It's too bad our folks didn't. We're paying for it dearly now. But, hey, I can get a 5k rebate on a 70k EV!

You don’t think Trump if he won or Republicans would have wanted to pass a similar bill? How is that when Trump constantly talked of this type of deal as Prez and this actual bill got 70 votes in Senate? McConnell and 18 other R Senators voted for it.

Yeah, he would have. He's a populist, not a conservative. But we're talking about who actually is in power, not who might have/would have.

I agree that this Biden's issue to own.

To your point of populists versus conservatives - how does this explain current republicans voting for this in the Senate.? 19 of them voted for 2 Trillion.

Morons, the lot of them.

Def agree in some cases. In most though I think they are very crafty and know where their bread is buttered. When elections come around they play the hits "soft on crime", "spending is out of control" etc.

Dems have their tunes as well.

 

[Sand]

Just to put this in proper perspective.

 

[Rubiobot]

Everyone cares about spending when their party is not in power.

 

[dkp993]

I was at Disneyland (in CA) all weekend with my brother and nieces, even with the price hikes, place was jam packed the entire time. There is A LOT of people not cutting back on anything.

Like yourself, for example.

You were at Disneyland like those other people you said were not cutting back on anything.

Ah, ummm, isn’t that why they call it inflation? People keep spending and businesses keep raising prices. Really tough to have the inflation without the spending.

 

[Zegras11]

Just to put this in proper perspective.

Proper perspective would be to include the inflation rates of all the countries in the world and make a comparison.

Inflation Rate - Countries - List

This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Inflation Rate. This page provides values for Inflation Rate reported in several countries. The table has current values for Inflation Rate, previous releases, historical...

tradingeconomics.com

Country	Last	Previous	Reference	Unit
China	2.8	2.5	Sep/22	%
Japan	3	3	Sep/22	%
Saudi Arabia	3.1	3	Sep/22	%
Switzerland	3.3	3.5	Sep/22	%
France	5.6	5.9	Sep/22	%
South Korea	5.6	5.7	Sep/22	%
Indonesia	5.95	4.69	Sep/22	%
Australia	6.1	5.1	Jun/22	%
Canada	6.9	7	Sep/22	%
Brazil	7.17	8.73	Sep/22	%
India	7.41	7	Sep/22	%
Singapore	7.5	7	Aug/22	%
South Africa	7.5	7.6	Sep/22	%
United States	8.2	8.3	Sep/22	%
Mexico	8.7	8.7	Sep/22	%
Italy	8.9	8.4	Sep/22	%
Spain	8.9	10.5	Sep/22	%
Euro Area	9.9	9.1	Sep/22	%
Germany	10	7.9	Sep/22	%
United Kingdom	10.1	9.9	Sep/22	%
Russia	13.7	14.3	Sep/22	%
Netherlands	14.5	12	Sep/22	%
Argentina	83	78.5	Sep/22	%
Turkey	83.45	80.21	Sep/22	%

 

[FairWarning]

Why doesn‘t China have 8% inflation?

 

[Rubiobot]

Argentina	83	78.5	Sep/22	%
Turkey	83.45	80.21	Sep/22	%

Holy ****.. 80% inflation?????

 

[Snotbubbles]

Just to put this in proper perspective.

Proper perspective would be to include the inflation rates of all the countries in the world and make a comparison.

Inflation Rate - Countries - List

This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Inflation Rate. This page provides values for Inflation Rate reported in several countries. The table has current values for Inflation Rate, previous releases, historical...

tradingeconomics.com

Country	Last	Previous	Reference	Unit
China	2.8	2.5	Sep/22	%
Japan	3	3	Sep/22	%
Saudi Arabia	3.1	3	Sep/22	%
Switzerland	3.3	3.5	Sep/22	%
France	5.6	5.9	Sep/22	%
South Korea	5.6	5.7	Sep/22	%
Indonesia	5.95	4.69	Sep/22	%
Australia	6.1	5.1	Jun/22	%
Canada	6.9	7	Sep/22	%
Brazil	7.17	8.73	Sep/22	%
India	7.41	7	Sep/22	%
Singapore	7.5	7	Aug/22	%
South Africa	7.5	7.6	Sep/22	%
United States	8.2	8.3	Sep/22	%
Mexico	8.7	8.7	Sep/22	%
Italy	8.9	8.4	Sep/22	%
Spain	8.9	10.5	Sep/22	%
Euro Area	9.9	9.1	Sep/22	%
Germany	10	7.9	Sep/22	%
United Kingdom	10.1	9.9	Sep/22	%
Russia	13.7	14.3	Sep/22	%
Netherlands	14.5	12	Sep/22	%
Argentina	83	78.5	Sep/22	%
Turkey	83.45	80.21	Sep/22	%

You should use core inflation not baseline. Energy is a big component of the inflation rates for the Euro area since they are heavily dependent on foreign energy unlike the US.

Euro Area Core Inflation Rate

Core consumer prices In the Euro Area increased 3.30 percent in January of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - Euro Area Core Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term...

tradingeconomics.com

United States Core Inflation Rate

Core consumer prices in the United States increased 3.90 percent in December of 2023 over the same month in the previous year. This page provides - United States Core Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

Euro area core inflation is at 4.8%
US core inflation is at 6.6%

 

[Sand]

Argentina	83	78.5	Sep/22	%
Turkey	83.45	80.21	Sep/22	%

Holy ****.. 80% inflation?????

Argentina defaults on its debt as a national pastime. Turkey has a wannabe dictator as a leader and is doing his best Weimar Republic imitation.