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2022 American Economy (1 Viewer)

James Daulton

Footballguy
I've heard some talk about an inevitable recession in 2022.  Let's discuss where we are currently.  Inflation is an issue, a worldwide issue, but obviously an issue that needs to be addressed.  The Fed has a plan to raise interest rates to combat inflation and cool things down.  Not sure it will work but at least I doubt the Fed chair will get crap talked by the current POTUS so he should not have to deal with that.  So worldwide inflation really bad so that's a negative.

However, on the plus side, a ton of jobs were just added and unemployment is down to 3.8%.  Essentially as low as its been in modern history.  GDP, after a horrible 2020 and lackluster prior 3 years, was 5.7%, with a strong 4th quarter. 

So while inflation and gas prices are serious issues that need to be corrected ASAP, covid going away and the health of the economy otherwise give me a lot of hope for 2022.

 
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I’m not an expert on economics(did pretty well on it in school, and I understand it on a basic level), but I know that gas prices probably were going to rise at some point, but the war certainly made that worse; supply chains still have issues(trucking companies are having trouble keeping workers), and many other industries are hurting for labor as well. Here in Florida, I think the restaurant industry is about to have some serious issues based on oversaturating the market with choices, and that will affect tourism somewhat. Construction projects are still going on, but the supply issue is slowing that down, so projects are taking longer(I’m a commercial electrician, have a one story building project that we finished the slab work back in late January, they’re still working on actually getting the walls and roof squared away. I’ve been off and on the site since at least November.

 
I’m not an expert on economics(did pretty well on it in school, and I understand it on a basic level), but I know that gas prices probably were going to rise at some point, but the war certainly made that worse; supply chains still have issues(trucking companies are having trouble keeping workers), and many other industries are hurting for labor as well. Here in Florida, I think the restaurant industry is about to have some serious issues based on oversaturating the market with choices, and that will affect tourism somewhat. Construction projects are still going on, but the supply issue is slowing that down, so projects are taking longer(I’m a commercial electrician, have a one story building project that we finished the slab work back in late January, they’re still working on actually getting the walls and roof squared away. I’ve been off and on the site since at least November.
Lots of good thoughts.  But economics tells us that these high prices will draw more and more suppliers to take advantage of them until supply catches up.  Could be some time but the economy is really really in trouble when it's not growing and people are losing jobs.  That's certainly not the case here. 

 
Lots of good thoughts.  But economics tells us that these high prices will draw more and more suppliers to take advantage of them until supply catches up.  Could be some time but the economy is really really in trouble when it's not growing and people are losing jobs.  That's certainly not the case here. 
True, and that’s why I don’t think a recession is coming soon. Eventually they’ll figure out the supply lines, and everyone should be able to adjust.

 
I've heard some talk about an inevitable recession in 2022.  Let's discuss where we are currently.  Inflation is an issue, a worldwide issue, but obviously an issue that needs to be addressed.  The Fed has a plan to raise interest rates to combat inflation and cool things down.  Not sure it will work but at least I doubt the Fed chair will get crap talked by the current POTUS so he should not have to deal with that.  So worldwide inflation really bad so that's a negative.

However, on the plus side, a ton of jobs were just added and unemployment is down to 3.8%.  Essentially as low as its been in modern history.  GDP, after a horrible 2020 and lackluster prior 3 years, was 5.7%, with a strong 4th quarter. 

So while inflation and gas prices are serious issues that need to be corrected ASAP, covid going away and the health of the economy otherwise give me a lot of hope for 2022.
The good news is almost a trillion dollars has be taken out of the world economy  thank to Russia getting swifted.   

 
Lots of good thoughts.  But economics tells us that these high prices will draw more and more suppliers to take advantage of them until supply catches up.  Could be some time but the economy is really really in trouble when it's not growing and people are losing jobs.  That's certainly not the case here. 
What if the banks won't give loans to the new Wells?   Cuz that is what is happening.   Thanks ESG

 
I think we need to think more broadly about what is meant by the "economy."   I think inflation, GDP, and employment numbers tell only a small part of the story.  A good economy should be one that makes people's lives better.

For most of the pandemic, childhood poverty was drastically reduced because of the expanded child credit.  But I never heard anyone cite that as positive news about the economy.  Why?.

Lots of people have quit their jobs to do things that make them happier.  That's also positive economic news that seems not to be taken into account in these discussions.

 If we continue to rely primarily on metric like GDP and employment rates to judge the health of our economy, we will continue to have lots of unhappy people.

 
I have no hope that the economy is fixed this summer,  I don’t see fuel costs or the supply chain being fixed in time, so prices will continue to rise.

 
This is the appropriate location for this thread, but while unintentional economics being political poetically describes our current status. 

 
Real GDP is what we need to be looking at.  By the time March numbers hit, it appears we will be negative in Q1.  I haven't looked at February's revised numbers (if any, or if they are out) but we were pretty much tracking at near flat line.  Hard to imagine with the impact we've seen in March we don't turn negative.  Then Q2 will be a full quarter of the effects we are seeing.  I find it likely we can say recession by the end of Q2.

 

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