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The Unofficial Joe Biden Recession Thread (1 Viewer)

It would be fine if they just came out and said, "Yes, we're technically in a recession, but the labor market is very strong and the recession is currently having a negligible effect on the American worker" but I don't think I've heard them say that yet.
Of course not, because the MSM is basically state news as long as the Democrats are in charge.  Don't worry though -- they'll rediscover their watchdog role in early 2025.  

 
It would be fine if they just came out and said, "Yes, we're technically in a recession, but the labor market is very strong and the recession is currently having a negligible effect on the American worker" but I don't think I've heard them say that yet.
This reminds me of the old Reagan quote of “If you’re explaining, you’re losing”. The administration can call it whatever they want. Only people that want to believe the spin of it are going in for it. 

 
Of course not, because the MSM is basically state news as long as the Democrats are in charge.  Don't worry though -- they'll rediscover their watchdog role in early 2025.  
I'm pretty sure it was Greenwald the other day who said this was the perfect potential pivot point for the MSM. The Whitehouse is pushing a line that they know is false and actually contradicts all of the MSM pre-Biden ressesion reporting. 

They had the option to call a spade a spade and regain some credibility with the people. OR to continue to be a propaganda front for the Democratic party while more every day people wake up to their agenda due to how obvious this is.

 
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So in this case he was spot on and you can’t refute it, but source policing.  


In this case...doubtful he was spot on.  Just was noting interesting choice of words calling something propaganda and then citing a known propaganda artist in Tucker Carlson.  It was little more than that.

…and than complain when GG has a ton of links…always gonna find a way to deflect for the home team.


I don't complain that GG has a ton of links.  I don't read much of his stuff...because Ive found that too often his links have nothing to do with what he is replying to and is just moving the goalposts away from a conversation that was being had to try and make some point.  All the while being condescending and snarky towards anyone and everyone on the left (citing himself as top level posting, high value...claiming those on the left are radical leftists, low value, low information...and his claims that others are running off subscribers while passive aggressive calls out to mods in posts as well.)

 
In this case...doubtful he was spot on.  Just was noting interesting choice of words calling something propaganda and then citing a known propaganda artist in Tucker Carlson.  It was little more than that.

I don't complain that GG has a ton of links.  I don't read much of his stuff...because Ive found that too often his links have nothing to do with what he is replying to and is just moving the goalposts away from a conversation that was being had to try and make some point.  All the while being condescending and snarky towards anyone and everyone on the left (citing himself as top level posting, high value...claiming those on the left are radical leftists, low value, low information...and his claims that others are running off subscribers while passive aggressive calls out to mods in posts as well.)
So you don’t like posts that deflect from the topic?

 
I'm pretty sure it was Greenwald the other day who said this was the perfect potential pivot point for the MSM. The Whitehouse is pushing a line that they know is false and actually contradicts all of the MSM pre-Biden ressesion reporting. 

They had the option to call a spade a spade and regain some credibility with the people. OR to continue to be a propaganda front for the Democratic party while more every day people wake up to their agenda due to how obvious this is.
I haven't followed the Biden response to this technical recession very closely. But there are many ways to accept the GDP decline and spin it positively.  Low unemployment and high consumer  spending are one way. Another is that low and middle wage workers aren't willing to keep inflation low by working for nothing. I think inflation will come down, but maybe not to the Obama level of ~1.5%. High inflation is supposed to decrease during a recession.

 
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1. We are in a recession because we had two quarters of negative GDP growth.

2. It is debatable whether we are in a recession. Although we have had two quarters of negative GDP growth, the labor market is strong and there have been supply side shocks.

I can’t see how message #1 should ever be delivered to the American people over  message #2 unless it were for partisan political reasons.

 
1. We are in a recession because we had two quarters of negative GDP growth.

2. It is debatable whether we are in a recession. Although we have had two quarters of negative GDP growth, the labor market is strong and there have been supply side shocks.

I can’t see how message #1 should ever be delivered to the American people over  message #2 unless it were for partisan political reasons.
I can't see why message #1 is being denied/deflected by the Biden Administration, unless it thought the American people were simpleton idiots who couldn't comprehend complexity. 

Or partisan political reasons, of course.

 
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I can't see why message #1 is being denied/deflected by the Biden Administration, unless it thought the American people were simpleton idiots who couldn't comprehend complexity. 

Or partisan political reasons, of course.


This is the most straightforward, non partisan, non political way to state it.

There's no need to spin or "message" it unless it were for partisan political reasons.
Wow.
 

 
Not to mention the currently inverted 2/10 Treasury yield curve. Read 'em and weep.

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession since 1955, with a recession following between six and 24 months, according to a 2018 report by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. It offered a false signal just once in that time.

 
Not to mention the currently inverted 2/10 Treasury yield curve. Read 'em and weep.

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession since 1955, with a recession following between six and 24 months, according to a 2018 report by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. It offered a false signal just once in that time.
A recession in 6-12 months seem plausible.  Especially if the Fed mashes rates again in September.

 
1. We are in a recession because we had two quarters of negative GDP growth.

2. It is debatable whether we are in a recession. Although we have had two quarters of negative GDP growth, the labor market is strong and there have been supply side shocks.

I can’t see how message #1 should ever be delivered to the American people over  message #2 unless it were for partisan political reasons.
It's like Bizarro world in here.

 
This is shaping up to be a very calm recession. However, insanely low unemployment is still my biggest concern. Sounds crazy to talk about low unemployment as a bad thing, but worker shortage remains a significant cause to a lot of supply chain issues. Even heard a few talking heads/oil analysts say the crude supply could have been higher if the oil companies had more workers. It's been a common theme in a lot of Q2 earnings and interviews with business leaders. Until we create more machines to do the work or open up to more immigration I don't see this worker shortage ending.
 
This is shaping up to be a very calm recession. However, insanely low unemployment is still my biggest concern. Sounds crazy to talk about low unemployment as a bad thing, but worker shortage remains a significant cause to a lot of supply chain issues. Even heard a few talking heads/oil analysts say the crude supply could have been higher if the oil companies had more workers. It's been a common theme in a lot of Q2 earnings and interviews with business leaders. Until we create more machines to do the work or open up to more immigration I don't see this worker shortage ending.
Unfortunately half the country (the Republican half) is simply unreasonable when it comes to the issue of immigration. They won’t agree to increase it. They won’t agree to taking in more refugees. They won’t agree to giving a path to citizenship to undocumented immigrants already here. They want to build walls on the southern border.

Until they come to their senses and return to the GOP of Ronald Reagan this is going to be a problem.
 
Related: really good chart on where the GDP drag is coming from. Looks like maybe it's mostly right-sizing inventory?

FWIW, I do believe the FED when they say they're going to continue rate hikes and likely push us into a recession. (And I agree that they should if that's what it takes to nuke increasingly entrenched inflation from orbit.)

We just aren't there right now. The current (minor) GDP declines are a function of weird post-COVID structural stuff.
 
Related: really good chart on where the GDP drag is coming from. Looks like maybe it's mostly right-sizing inventory?

FWIW, I do believe the FED when they say they're going to continue rate hikes and likely push us into a recession. (And I agree that they should if that's what it takes to nuke increasingly entrenched inflation from orbit.)

We just aren't there right now. The current (minor) GDP declines are a function of weird post-COVID structural stuff.

Agree the FED needs to continue to raise rates.
 
Related: really good chart on where the GDP drag is coming from. Looks like maybe it's mostly right-sizing inventory?

FWIW, I do believe the FED when they say they're going to continue rate hikes and likely push us into a recession. (And I agree that they should if that's what it takes to nuke increasingly entrenched inflation from orbit.)

We just aren't there right now. The current (minor) GDP declines are a function of weird post-COVID structural stuff.

Agree the FED needs to continue to raise rates.
Thoughts on the continued gradual rates increases vs one large 2.5% increases for example? Does slamming the brakes get us through this quicker than a gradual increase that possibly prolongs the pain?
 
Related: really good chart on where the GDP drag is coming from. Looks like maybe it's mostly right-sizing inventory?

FWIW, I do believe the FED when they say they're going to continue rate hikes and likely push us into a recession. (And I agree that they should if that's what it takes to nuke increasingly entrenched inflation from orbit.)

We just aren't there right now. The current (minor) GDP declines are a function of weird post-COVID structural stuff.

Agree the FED needs to continue to raise rates.
Thoughts on the continued gradual rates increases vs one large 2.5% increases for example? Does slamming the brakes get us through this quicker than a gradual increase that possibly prolongs the pain?
Good question. I don't know the answer but has anything like that been done in the past? I also think it's tricky for the fed because unemployment is so low.
 
Are we still in the Best Recession Ever, or nah?

Ok, ok. The advance GDP number looks like it's being goosed up (+2.6%) by some of the same kinds of post-COVID structural stuff as the last GDP number was weighed down. So grain of salt.

But people are spending, and people are working. By any reasonable real-world measure we remain not in an actual recession.

I'm 50/50 on what the FED should do in Nov/Dec. Pausing to let the impact of what they've already done show up in the #s seems wise (since there are so many lags between interest rate hikes and impact on the economy), but even with falling prices in a bunch of places inflation remains stubborn and high.

Inflation has the advantage of impacting the entire country a little bit, where recessions tend to hit the narrow slice of the country that lose their jobs very hard and spare the rest of us -- so I think I'd probably pause, or at least raise slower. But it's a really tough call IMO. Don't envy them right now.
 

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