The "injury prone" label is being used too much lately (1 Viewer)

[guderian]

It seems that if a player misses a few games in his first few season he's frequently labeled "injury prone" on this board and his stats are significantly discounted. Kevin Jones missing 8 games in 3 years doesn't mean that he's injury prone. The same goes for Cedric Benson who had a gruesome injury a couple years ago that caused people to prematurely proclaim either the end to his season or career. He played in week 17 that year.

There are a few huge problems with the "injury prone" analysis:

1. Football is a dangerous sport and most injury streaks can be explained through probability rather than being "soft". "Fragile" Fred Taylor used to be the poster boy for being injury prone after he missed 24 of his first 64 games. If you downgraded him because of that you missed out on over 7,000 yards and 27 TDs as he missed only 8 games in the next 5 years. Many gave up on Isaac Bruce after a few injuries yet he's only missed 6 games in the last 8 years. Drinen wrote an excellent article a while back regarding injury streaks, but unfortunately it looks like it has been pulled down from his site.

2. Since most injury histories can be explained through probabilities, people who assign significant discounts for being "injury prone" are going to consistently over-value players who have been lucky on injuries and under-value players who were the unfortunate victim of probability.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Good post. I think the reason is either 1) There's really not a standard which has been set to label "injury prone" 2) It's convenient to use when you're down on a guy and you cannot pinpoint why or it serves your purpose in an argument for/against players.

This would actually be a great article. I should go back through 5-7 years of stats and see who missed the most RECURRING time. Being out 12 months for shredding an ACL isn't as "injury prone" as say recurring hammy's like Isaac Bruce used to deal with, Frank Gore's history, the standard for injury prone (Fred Taylor), etc.

Speaking of Taylor, how long do you have to NOT be injured to shed that label once you've been tagged with it?

Interesting topic that is open to many levels of interpretation.

 

[GregR_2]

...Speaking of Taylor, how long do you have to NOT be injured to shed that label once you've been tagged with it?Interesting topic that is open to many levels of interpretation.

On Taylor, using hindsight the day he should have had the tag removed was the day in preseason a few years ago when he said he'd realized that over his first few years he hadn't been willing to play hurt but not injured. Since then he has been as active as any other RB.But without hindsight, I don't think Taylor should have ever gotten the Fragile tag, unless someone had reason to believe there were times he could have played that he didn't just because he wasn't 100%. To me the injury prone tag normally means the player has a degenerative condition of some sort that is going to continue to recur. There are also some other particular circumstances, like an aging RB who has an upright running style like Eddie George. It isn't even so much injury prone for that situation though, as having a higher injury risk than other players at his position, and risk of deterioration of his physical skills due to the pounding he took.

 

[BGP]

Reasons for being injury-prone are not limited to:

Players who are careless with their body.
Players who are awkward for an NFL-caliber player.
Players that suffer one bad injury, and then overcompensate to try to prevent further injury to it and then injure something else in the process.
Players with an unusual body frame.
Players on steroids can tear tendons and ligaments because the increase in muscle size is not accompanied by a growth in the tissue that attaches it to the bone.
A concussion can lead to more concussions.

 

[dparker713]

I label Benson as soft, not injury prone.

 

[nygiants56]

Reasons for being injury-prone are not limited to:

Players who are careless with their body.
Players who are awkward for an NFL-caliber player.
Players that suffer one bad injury, and then overcompensate to try to prevent further injury to it and then injure something else in the process.
Players with an unusual body frame.
Players on steroids can tear tendons and ligaments because the increase in muscle size is not accompanied by a growth in the tissue that attaches it to the bone.
A concussion can lead to more concussions.

in other words, 6'+ RB's like Hoard, Rob't Smith, Chris Brown..or freaks like Matt Jones..

or guys like Charles Rogers who is probably still in puberty, dealing with growing pains and weak bones, and will be for some time...

or guys on roids like Boston, or (probably) Pettigout..I wonder if there is a study done showing the difference between the hard working guys who practice every day,and the slackers, in terms of who is more oft-injured?

also, a good deal of the 'injury-prone' tag might have to do with the team's strength and conditioning coach, you see the NY Yankees for instance, many of them have been hurt so far this season, and the team just fired their S+C coach as a result..

 

[Giggity]

If you had a bad season with a minor injury, you're injury prone.

If you had a great season, you're not injury prone.

Frank Gore pretty much proved this. Everyone would always mention his surgeries, how he couldn't carry the load. One great year, and the guy is a top 5 RB. If he gets hurt this year, he'll be back to injury prone mess.

In a what have you done for me lately world, if the last thing you did was get hurt, then that’s what people will talk about. If you swap ADs freshman year with his junior year, people would ignore his first 2 injury filled years, and be all aboard. The most recent year will always dictate the perception of a player.

 

[jurb26]

If you had a bad season with a minor injury, you're injury prone.If you had a great season, you're not injury prone.Frank Gore pretty much proved this. Everyone would always mention his surgeries, how he couldn't carry the load. One great year, and the guy is a top 5 RB. If he gets hurt this year, he'll be back to injury prone mess. In a what have you done for me lately world, if the last thing you did was get hurt, then that’s what people will talk about. If you swap ADs freshman year with his junior year, people would ignore his first 2 injury filled years, and be all aboard. The most recent year will always dictate the perception of a player.

The "injury prone" label is more about emotion than anything else. Simple as that.

 

[spec1alk]

in other words, 6'+ RB's like Hoard, Rob't Smith, Chris Brown..

This is why I avoided adrian peterson (MIN RB) where-ever possible. Guy is "6'2" and runs upright", reminds me of chris brown.

 

[Da Guru]

I label Benson as soft, not injury prone.

That may be correct. After injuries some players lose that recklessness that made them good in the first place.Julius Jones comes to mind. Came out like a bat out of hell, got banged up a few times, now runs a little tenative.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

If you had a bad season with a minor injury, you're injury prone.If you had a great season, you're not injury prone.Frank Gore pretty much proved this. Everyone would always mention his surgeries, how he couldn't carry the load. One great year, and the guy is a top 5 RB. If he gets hurt this year, he'll be back to injury prone mess. In a what have you done for me lately world, if the last thing you did was get hurt, then that’s what people will talk about. If you swap ADs freshman year with his junior year, people would ignore his first 2 injury filled years, and be all aboard. The most recent year will always dictate the perception of a player.

 

[David Yudkin]

Maybe there are just some players that are healthy prone (Favre, Brady, LT, etc.)?

 

[Da Guru]

Maybe there are just some players that are healthy prone (Favre, Brady, LT, etc.)?

Look at Manning vs McNair.Has Manning ever been questionable? Has McNair ever not been questionable?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I label Benson as soft, not injury prone.

Injury prone sounds nicer than soft, but it has the same meaning for me. And someone's post about Fred Taylor and his comments about playing through pain are dead on. It's not about continuing to have separate injuries. It's about not playing through an injury you have. By the end of an NFL season, a majority of NFL players are hurting in some way or another. I don't need my RB2 in week 15 sitting because his foot still hurts.