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The Jaguars are as good as In! (They just need a little help...) (1 Viewer)

QuizGuy66

Footballguy
The mighty Jaguars have been the hot team in the AFC lately winning 4 of their last 5 to raise their record to 4-9.

This has kept them right in the thick of the AFC playoff race :pickle:

They just need a little help:

Jacksonville clinches a playoff berth if:

1) Jacksonville beats Buffalo Week 15

2) Jacksonville beats Tennessee Week 16

3) Jacksonville wins at Indianapolis Week 17

4) New England wins at Miami Week 15

5) Buffalo beats Miami Week 16

6) The Jets win at Miami Week 17

7) Carolina beats the Jets Week 15

8) Cleveland wins at the Jets Week 16

9) Detroit beats Baltimore Week 15

10) New England win at Baltimore Week 16

11) Cincinnati beats Baltimore Week 17

12) At least 2 of the following:

12a) Denver beats San Diego Week 15 :sadbanana:

12)12b) Oakland wins at San Diego Week 16

13)12c) Kansas City wins at San Diego Week 17

14) 13) At least 1 of the following:

14a) 13a) Cincinnati wins at Pittsburgh Week 15

14b) 13b) Green Bay beats Pittsburgh Week 16

14c) 13c) Cleveland wins at Pittsburgh Week 17

15) 14) At least 1 of the following:

15a) 14a) Kansas City wins/ties at Oakland Week 15

14b) San Diego beats/ties Oakland Week 16 (if this happens then 12a AND 12c BOTH MUST happen)

15b) 14c) Denver wins/ties at Oakland Week 17

If the above happens, the Jaguars will be 2nd in the South at 7-9 (they have tiebreaker over Ten 2-0), the Jets will place 2nd in the East at 7-9 (div record), and one of Balt/Pitt/Clev will place 2nd in the North at 7-9 , and San Diego may or may not place 3rd in the West at 7-9.

Since in any of these cases a head-to-head-to-head-(to-head) sweep is impossible (there is no case where any team that would be in the tiebreaker swept the others), it goes to conference record.

If all the above happens then the Jaguars win with a 7-5 conference record. The only team that could catch them is Oakland (who'd also be 7-5 and then get the head-to-head tiebreaker), thus necessitating Oakland having at least one tie/loss.

Jags fans should start scouting out hotels in Cincinnati, Foxboro, and Indianapolis now :excited:

-QG

 
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(on a side note, it's incredible to think but there's a viable chance that the Jags could end up playing a 2nd place schedule next year. If they beat the Titans it will probably happen.)

-QG

 
Wow. With the exception of the jaguars games themselves and buffalo/miami, I think all of the teams they need to win will be favored. And their week 17 game against indy could have the colts resting their starters. Its not likely, but its not as impossible as it seems like it ought to be.

 
Wow. With the exception of the jaguars games themselves and buffalo/miami, I think all of the teams they need to win will be favored. And their week 17 game against indy could have the colts resting their starters. Its not likely, but its not as impossible as it seems like it ought to be.
Those were my thoughts exactly - it's still a hell of a parlay, but I wouldn't lay anything more than a couple of hundred to one odds against it.

And considering that through 6 weeks of the season the Jags were not just 0-6, not just the worst team in the NFL, but statistically the worst NFL team of the past 25 years ...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-6-dvoa-ratings

... I feel safe saying that if the Jags make the playoffs, it will rank as the most mathematically improbable feat in NFL history.

 
Wow. With the exception of the jaguars games themselves and buffalo/miami, I think all of the teams they need to win will be favored. And their week 17 game against indy could have the colts resting their starters. Its not likely, but its not as impossible as it seems like it ought to be.
Yep, I actually like their chances - shocking as that may sound.

For me the key is here:

"12) At least 2 of the following:

12a) Denver beats San Diego Week 15

12b) Oakland wins at San Diego Week 16

12c) Kansas City wins at San Diego Week 17"

I'm not sure if OAK or KCC will win at SD.

 
Call me crazy, but I think Jacksonville controls their own destiny. All of those other scenarios sound very likely.

 
Call me crazy, but I think Jacksonville controls their own destiny. All of those other scenarios sound very likely.
They don't "control" it since 3546135 other things have to happen and they don't have any say in those games. But - as i stated above - it really doesn't look too bad! :o

 

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