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**The L.A. Chargers at The Jax Jags** (+1.5, 47) Sat 8:15 Kickoff (1 Viewer)

I'm all over Jacksonville getting anything at home in this one. Two young guns gonna be tossing that pigskin a lot imop. The Chargers defense is vulnerable in the secondary.
If The Jags O-line can keep Bosa and Mack from creating havoc I think The Jags have an excellent chance to win this game. Duvaaaaal hasn't seen excitement like this in along time.
At home,improving defense,confident Trevor,my pick of the week...

Jacksonville- 34
Los Angeles- 24
 
Rubi said:
I'm all over Jacksonville getting anything at home in this one. Two young guns gonna be tossing that pigskin a lot imop. The Chargers defense is vulnerable in the secondary.
If The Jags O-line can keep Bosa and Mack from creating havoc I think The Jags have an excellent chance to win this game. Duvaaaaal hasn't seen excitement like this in along time.
At home,improving defense,confident Trevor,my pick of the week...

Jacksonville- 34
Los Angeles- 24
Click to expand...
This would set up a Showdown between Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes the week after

Imagine Joe Burrow vs Josh Allen and Lawrence vs Mahomes
-I would prefer Miami sneak in there but most NFL fans would do cartwheels to watch these match ups
-Also Herbert can be inserted into this as well, that's how stacked the AFC QBs are.
 
Rubi said:
The Chargers defense is vulnerable in the secondary.
Click to expand...

Based on what?
  • The Chargers have allowed the 7th fewest passing yards and 8th fewest passing first downs allowed
  • PFF ranked the Chargers with the 9th highest coverage grade
  • Ignoring week 18, since the Chargers didn't play their normal starters and rotations for the full game:
    • Football Outsiders ranked the Chargers #7 in pass defense DVOA in weeks 1-17
    • Football Outsiders ranked the Chargers #2 in pass defense DVOA since their bye week, i.e., in weeks 9-17
    • The Chargers had 7 of their 8 highest coverage grades on the season since their bye week, i.e., in weeks 9-17 (9 week span)
    • The Chargers allowed just 178 passing yards per game since their bye week, i.e., in weeks 9-17
  • Those facts are despite having Bosa, their best pass rusher, for just 165 snaps on defense across 2 full games and 2 partial games... he's back
The Chargers defense has not been consistent all season, but has been much worse at run defense than pass defense.

Jacksonville- 34
Los Angeles- 24
Click to expand...

This would surprise me quite a bit, especially the Chargers giving up 34 points in this game. Since their bye week in week 8, ignoring week 18 as noted above, the Chargers have allowed 18.2 ppg.

I think it will be lower scoring and predict Chargers 24-17.
 
Last edited:
Tough one here. I want to say Chargers win this one, but the jury is still out in my mind. I would feel better about a Chargers win if it were JAX that had to travel across country. As of today, I will say Chargers in a close one. 27-24 with Dicker putting the game winner through the uprights in the waning moments.
 
Just Win Baby said:
Rubi said:
The Chargers defense is vulnerable in the secondary.
Click to expand...

Based on what?
  • The Chargers have allowed the 7th fewest passing yards and 8th fewest passing first downs allowed
  • PFF ranked the Chargers with the 9th highest coverage grade
  • Ignoring week 18, since the Chargers didn't play their normal starters and rotations for the full game:
    • Football Outsiders ranked the Chargers #7 in pass defense DVOA in weeks 1-17
    • Football Outsiders ranked the Chargers #2 in pass defense DVOA since their bye week, i.e., in weeks 9-17
    • The Chargers had 7 of their 8 highest coverage grades on the season since their bye week, i.e., in weeks 9-17 (9 week span)
    • The Chargers allowed just 178 passing yards per game since their bye week, i.e., in weeks 9-17
  • Those facts are despite having Bosa, their best pass rusher, for just 165 snaps on defense across 2 full games and 2 partial games... he's back
The Chargers defense has not been consistent all season, but has been much worse at run defense than pass defense.

Jacksonville- 34
Los Angeles- 24
Click to expand...

This would surprise me quite a bit, especially the Chargers giving up 34 points in this game. Since their bye week in week 10, ignoring week 18 as noted above, the Chargers have allowed 18.2 ppg.

I think it will be lower scoring and predict Chargers 24-17.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree with your stat numbers. This is the post season. It's win or go fishing every game. Just giving my opinion. If statistics won games the number one seeds would be in the Super Bowl every year. There's a lot more intangibles in the post season. I'm not an analytics guy. Stats can give a snapshot of a team. I'm going strictly on the eye test. I'll admit I've been wrong a lot this year,but fortunatley,as a bettor,I've been right more than I've been wrong. I just form opinions every week and hope I'm right one more time than I'm wrong. I happen to have a strong opinion on this game it's The Jags.
 
Love these young QBs, psyched to have some new blood in the playoffs. Just want a good game.
 
Chargers run defense was the porous part of their squad. Their secondary is fine with Asante Samuel Jr. at CB and Derwin James at safety. Asante is very good and Derwin is one of the tops in the league.

Their run defense was 29th in DVOA all year. Our local channel (KTLA, I'm a SoCal member of the board) does specials on the Chargers after football on Sundays and the topic was often discussed. Just a bad run D.
 
rockaction said:
Chargers run defense was the porous part of their squad. Their secondary is fine with Asante Samuel Jr. at CB and Derwin James at safety. Asante is very good and Derwin is one of the tops in the league.

Their run defense was 29th in DVOA all year. Our local channel (KTLA, I'm a SoCal member of the board) does specials on the Chargers after football on Sundays and the topic was often discussed. Just a bad run D.
Click to expand...

And you didn't even mention their best CB this season, Michael Davis, or their slot corner, Bryce Callahan, both of whom graded out better than ASJ this season.

Agree on the run defense. It is partly by choice, as Staley's philosophy is to defend the passing game, particularly to prevent big plays, and to be willing to give up some yards in the running game. But they need to be much better against the run, like at least middle third of the league, to make that philosophy actually work consistently.
 
I think the Mike Williams injury situation is going to play a huge role in this one. Allen, Palmer, Everett and Carter are great weapons to have, but none of them bring what Mike Williams can. They better bring in the best chiropractor, massager, yoga instructor, drug provider, back specialist there is to get this guy out there.
 
Jaguars win 22- 19. Staley sucks and is going to get outcoached. Also, Chargers are missing a huge element of speed and youth at the receiver position. Jaguars are as athletic as it gets with their young core.
 
3 hour lunch said:
I want to bet Jax but Lawrence looked so shaky last week. Feel like even without MW, Chargers take this one down
Click to expand...
You underestimate the Charger ability to fall to the occasion. Travel + Expectation + Staley - Williams and a lesser opponet = loss by 3. This is simple maths. We have seen it again and again. With a HEALTHY Willams it would be a win by 1. 28 to 27. without = loss by 3. No way to stop the run. Also- don't drink early, you'll need to later.
 
Osaurus said:
In case people are wondering, it’s actually cold in Florida tonight (and tomorrow). Jackson de Ville better wear his insulated speedo.
Click to expand...
39 this morning with a wind chill of about 32 in Palm Beach when we took the tennis courts around 7:30
It's certainly not anything like you would feel up North but it isn't hot n humid. Not a cloud in the sky this afternoon.
Beautiful sunset down here
 
Pretty surprised how much love Jacksonville is getting. Chargers are a better team basically across the board, except HC.

Chargers D has been much improved since Bosa came back, and offense has been since Allen came back. Honestly, don't see Williams as all that big of a loss, this week anyway. Palmer/Everett can pick up the slack in this matchup.

ETA: Walker Little and Jawaan Taylor against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack is gonna be a rough battle for the Jags.
 
These guys goofily asking why anyone would be on the chargers based on a game where 1/10 of a Justin Herbert played & Keenan Allen was out?

Huh
 
I’m not saying LAC is gonna roll the jags, just that I think it’ll be close. I have no rooting or betting interest, but I have Kelley, Zay Jones & Palmer in my post season matches.
 
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