the least sexy first round pick is..... (1 Viewer)

[kensat30]

If Rudi doesn't score a TD in any given week, you are toast.

The guy does not catch the ball. You either need him to score a TD or rush for 100+ to reach double digit points. And from my RB#1, I demand consistent double digit weeks, in addition to some blowup 20+ weeks. Rudi does not do that for you. All you guys preaching Rudi at #7, #8 overall will learn their lesson once you start the guy for 16 straight weeks (assuming he stays healthy).

Week by week scoring for Rudi could easily look like = 20, 9, 8, 8, 8, 9

Hell, if I want 7 or 8 points every week with the occassional big game, I'll draft Chad Johnson in the first round.

Reggie Bush: 5.5 catches/game (only 1 year data in a RBBC situation)Joe Addai: 2.5 catches/game (only 1 year data in a RBBC situation)

Clinton Portis: 2.5 catches/game (only counting games he started in his career)

Shaun Alexander: 2.32 catches/game (only counting games he started in his career)

Rudi J: 1.76 catches/game (only counting games he started in his career)

FWP: 1.67 catches/game (only counting games he started in his career)

Laurence Maroney: 1.57 catches/game (only 1 year data in a RBBC situation)

No real data for Cedric Benson.

So looking at backs with similar ADP as Rudi, except for Bush (no surprise there), no other RB is really that much better at catching passes are they? I have not listed Westbrook but he is clearly superior there too, no surprise.

Yes, Addai, Benson and Maroney will get more opportunities with no RBBC now, but I am not convinced that is a such a big deal when you look at the yards and TDs you are almost guaranteed with Rudi (injuries not withstanding)

Let's look at the actuals.15 84 5.6 0

23 90 3.9 0

23 124 5.4 0

These are Rudi's receiving numbers the past 3 years. Or 29.8 fantasy points in 48 games.

One guy on your "comparable" list is Laurence Maroney. Maroney, in a RBBC situation last year, had: 22/194/1. Or 25.4 fantasy points in 14 games).

Rudi doesn't catch a lot of passes. And more importantly, he doesn't do anything with those passes either. He's never scored a receiving TD. His career catch average is barely 5. He's consistently extremely poor in the receiving department. And despite his "solid 1400/12" rushing the ball for the past three years, his rushing ability has been lackluster as well IMO. The guy's one redeeming factor is that he has been able to carry the ball 350 times for the past three years without a major injury. The picking is ripe if Rudi does not improve (unlikely IMO) and ESPECIALLY if he were to get injured in any way. A career 4.1 ypc and a 3.8ypc average last year simply is not good enough for a starting RB on a strong offensive team. Rudi's lack of receiving ability and explosiveness in the running game is what led the Bengal's to drop early picks on Perry and now Irons. IF there is one handcuff you absolute NEED this year, it's Kenny Irons IMO. Rudi Johnson as your RB#1 in the first round is a bad pick IMO. You're dropping your #1 on a RB#2 with little upside and not very much job security.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I'd just like to make a point about Rudi's "consistency" and how predictable his stats will be.Exactly one RB before last season (when Rudi and Corey Dillon both did it) rushed for between 11 and 13 TDs in three straight years. It was Barry Sanders, who rushed for 4 TDs the next season. Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.Projections are difficult. It looks simple enough to jot Rudi down for the same numbers he's had the past three years, but had you done that before, you'd have been wrong way more often than you'd been right.

So you're going to consider sample sizes of 5 and 7 to be significant enough to actually indicate trends?

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'd just like to make a point about Rudi's "consistency" and how predictable his stats will be.Exactly one RB before last season (when Rudi and Corey Dillon both did it) rushed for between 11 and 13 TDs in three straight years. It was Barry Sanders, who rushed for 4 TDs the next season. Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.Projections are difficult. It looks simple enough to jot Rudi down for the same numbers he's had the past three years, but had you done that before, you'd have been wrong way more often than you'd been right.

So you're going to consider sample sizes of 5 and 7 to be significant enough to actually indicate trends?

No, but you can use them to disprove a theory. If you said the Patriots were the best team in the NFL, and they went 1-6 in their first seven games, that'd go a long way to disproving your theory.

 

[1huskerfan]

I'd just like to make a point about Rudi's "consistency" and how predictable his stats will be.Exactly one RB before last season (when Rudi and Corey Dillon both did it) rushed for between 11 and 13 TDs in three straight years. It was Barry Sanders, who rushed for 4 TDs the next season. Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.Projections are difficult. It looks simple enough to jot Rudi down for the same numbers he's had the past three years, but had you done that before, you'd have been wrong way more often than you'd been right.

So you're going to consider sample sizes of 5 and 7 to be significant enough to actually indicate trends?

No, but you can use them to disprove a theory. If you said the Patriots were the best team in the NFL, and they went 1-6 in their first seven games, that'd go a long way to disproving your theory.

ummmmm, what?

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'd just like to make a point about Rudi's "consistency" and how predictable his stats will be.Exactly one RB before last season (when Rudi and Corey Dillon both did it) rushed for between 11 and 13 TDs in three straight years. It was Barry Sanders, who rushed for 4 TDs the next season. Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.Projections are difficult. It looks simple enough to jot Rudi down for the same numbers he's had the past three years, but had you done that before, you'd have been wrong way more often than you'd been right.

So you're going to consider sample sizes of 5 and 7 to be significant enough to actually indicate trends?

No, but you can use them to disprove a theory. If you said the Patriots were the best team in the NFL, and they went 1-6 in their first seven games, that'd go a long way to disproving your theory.

ummmmm, what?

What's the source of your confusion?

 

[candy bar]

this poor FF stud. Every August he gets no street cred. Has a tested, consistantly high octane offense, no 8 stacking the box..... just 1400+ and 12+ TD's each season. Durable? Never missed a game in 3 years. 28 yrs old...no worries there. 80% of the carries...Irons won't get 12 touches (carries anyways) a game, not this season.

He won't lose you a championship by being a bust but I think his upside is limited. Not a bad pick for people that are strong drafters as you secure a very solid & consistant performer in round one, but that huge "Home Run" upside isn't there. He's the ultimate "safe" pick among RB's, definately not sexy, that's for sure.

I agree with you on this one. Rudi is a safe solid pick in round 1 and allows you to take some chances in round 2.

Rudi is a rock solid late first round pick.

Rudy is on one of the highest powered offenses in the league. He should put up very solid - and consistent - numbers this year. He is what he is. Not exactly tremendous upside, but the downside isn't great either.

I got Travis Henry in the first round with the 11th pick in a 14 team league. I got Rudi in the second round with the 18th overall pick. So in my league, you were right. He was overlooked for sexier picks but at the 18th spot, he was a steal.

Once again, people confuse past consistency with future consistency. Lots of people really misjudged how safe of a pick Rudi was.

Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.

how many of these guys fell off due to injury, RBBC, losing the job, etc.

Yeah, there's no chance Rudi gets hurt, RBBC, loses his job, or et ceteras.