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I actually feel just the opposite. Before even opening this thread the first name that came to mind was Roddy White. 110 targets should be the floor for White. I love it that people are sleeping on this guy. He is a budding fantasy stud.
The Falcons had an atypical pass to run ratio last season. When that comes crashing back to reality there's a chance White's targets will decrease as well.
One of the interesting things that glaringly stood out from the 6 years even without looking too hard was that Santana Moss either got a ridiculous amount of targets over 110 or barely close to it. So he's been either hit or miss.
2004: 14 targets2005: 35 targets2006: 48 targets2007: 81 targets
I'm actually doing all sorts of different stuff with the target info. Instead of doing it piece by piece I'm going to throw it all into a target extravaganza article/post. Right now, I'd say it should be all done Friday night/Saturday afternoon. What to expect:-- WR's who have consistently gotten significant targets (2002-2007). -- WR's who have the best target/reception ratio and the possible reasons why.-- The fluxations of certain WR's from inside the top 27 to outside the top 27.--The mortal locks to get 110 targets based on team situations and the since-2002 stats.-- Varying situations (such as a QB change) and how much they effect targets.-- The relation of WR targets and the type of running game they may/may have not had.-- Rookie WR and their target information.Depending on the data gathered, I'm going to try and match targets to coaches and try and spot any trends. I'm not sure if this will be included, but it may.If anyone has any special requests, then just post it here. I'll try my best to get it in there if it's a reasonable suggestion.Okay, let me see if I got this.You are saying that 110 targets is the cutoff, so to speak, of a talented receiver who may not bust. SO you are looking to see who (from the non 110 guys) will jump up, while also seeing which guys over 110 will come down, and you looked at this over a period of years...cool. A few questionso guys with high target rankings usually drop for any reason other than injury or changing teams? I mean, If a guy had 150 targets this year, what is the likelyhood of going under the 110 mark next year (other than injury).I mean, I see a guy like Brandon Marshall with 170 targets last year, and I see it will decrease (suspension), but he should still see at least 120, right?Or are you looking to see who gets in on the tail end?Gator
JG - this stuff will be awesomeI'm actually doing all sorts of different stuff with the target info. Instead of doing it piece by piece I'm going to throw it all into a target extravaganza article/post. Right now, I'd say it should be all done Friday night/Saturday afternoon. What to expect:-- WR's who have consistently gotten significant targets (2002-2007). -- WR's who have the best target/reception ratio and the possible reasons why.-- The fluxations of certain WR's from inside the top 27 to outside the top 27.--The mortal locks to get 110 targets based on team situations and the since-2002 stats.-- Varying situations (such as a QB change) and how much they effect targets.-- The relation of WR targets and the type of running game they may/may have not had.-- Rookie WR and their target information.Depending on the data gathered, I'm going to try and match targets to coaches and try and spot any trends. I'm not sure if this will be included, but it may.If anyone has any special requests, then just post it here. I'll try my best to get it in there if it's a reasonable suggestion.Okay, let me see if I got this.You are saying that 110 targets is the cutoff, so to speak, of a talented receiver who may not bust. SO you are looking to see who (from the non 110 guys) will jump up, while also seeing which guys over 110 will come down, and you looked at this over a period of years...cool. A few questions
One of the things I looked at was WRs that catch less than 50% of their targets. Those guys are all the guys I always have a "bad" feeling about without knowing why. Lee Evans, Chris Chambers, Burress. it seems to make sense.Also, Welker caught 77% of his passes....CRAZY!I'm actually doing all sorts of different stuff with the target info. Instead of doing it piece by piece I'm going to throw it all into a target extravaganza article/post. Right now, I'd say it should be all done Friday night/Saturday afternoon. What to expect:-- WR's who have consistently gotten significant targets (2002-2007). -- WR's who have the best target/reception ratio and the possible reasons why.-- The fluxations of certain WR's from inside the top 27 to outside the top 27.--The mortal locks to get 110 targets based on team situations and the since-2002 stats.-- Varying situations (such as a QB change) and how much they effect targets.-- The relation of WR targets and the type of running game they may/may have not had.-- Rookie WR and their target information.Depending on the data gathered, I'm going to try and match targets to coaches and try and spot any trends. I'm not sure if this will be included, but it may.If anyone has any special requests, then just post it here. I'll try my best to get it in there if it's a reasonable suggestion.Okay, let me see if I got this.You are saying that 110 targets is the cutoff, so to speak, of a talented receiver who may not bust. SO you are looking to see who (from the non 110 guys) will jump up, while also seeing which guys over 110 will come down, and you looked at this over a period of years...cool. A few questions
You have to factor the suckiness of the qb.You might compare % targets caught with the team averageOne of the things I looked at was WRs that catch less than 50% of their targets. Those guys are all the guys I always have a "bad" feeling about without knowing why. Lee Evans, Chris Chambers, Burress. it seems to make sense.Also, Welker caught 77% of his passes....CRAZY!I'm actually doing all sorts of different stuff with the target info. Instead of doing it piece by piece I'm going to throw it all into a target extravaganza article/post. Right now, I'd say it should be all done Friday night/Saturday afternoon. What to expect:-- WR's who have consistently gotten significant targets (2002-2007). -- WR's who have the best target/reception ratio and the possible reasons why.-- The fluxations of certain WR's from inside the top 27 to outside the top 27.--The mortal locks to get 110 targets based on team situations and the since-2002 stats.-- Varying situations (such as a QB change) and how much they effect targets.-- The relation of WR targets and the type of running game they may/may have not had.-- Rookie WR and their target information.Depending on the data gathered, I'm going to try and match targets to coaches and try and spot any trends. I'm not sure if this will be included, but it may.If anyone has any special requests, then just post it here. I'll try my best to get it in there if it's a reasonable suggestion.Okay, let me see if I got this.You are saying that 110 targets is the cutoff, so to speak, of a talented receiver who may not bust. SO you are looking to see who (from the non 110 guys) will jump up, while also seeing which guys over 110 will come down, and you looked at this over a period of years...cool. A few questions
nope. That is a trap. If a WR sucks over a bunch of QBs, then the WR sucks not the QB. Chambers will be good for about 4 catches a game on 8 targets. That s who he is.
Agreed. And it's not just the QB. Are there other offensive players to draw attention away for the receiver in question? Is the offensive playcalling good? How is the player used (e.g., if he is frequently sent deep, you can expect a lower catch percentage)? Etc.Take Chambers for example. Last season, he played 6 games in Miami. He caught 31 passes in 66 targets (47%). Then he moved to San Diego and played 13 games, during which he caught 51 passes in 85+ targets... I say 85+ because FBG has him listed with 7 catches on 0 targets in SD's last playoff game, and he had 78 targets in his first 12 games with SD. If it's 51/85, that's 60%. Even if it's 51/90, that's 57%, a significant jump from his Miami totals.I've never thought of percentage of targets caught as a useful metric for these reasons.You have to factor the suckiness of the qb.You might compare % targets caught with the team averageOne of the things I looked at was WRs that catch less than 50% of their targets. Those guys are all the guys I always have a "bad" feeling about without knowing why. Lee Evans, Chris Chambers, Burress. it seems to make sense.Also, Welker caught 77% of his passes....CRAZY!I'm actually doing all sorts of different stuff with the target info. Instead of doing it piece by piece I'm going to throw it all into a target extravaganza article/post. Right now, I'd say it should be all done Friday night/Saturday afternoon. What to expect:-- WR's who have consistently gotten significant targets (2002-2007). -- WR's who have the best target/reception ratio and the possible reasons why.-- The fluxations of certain WR's from inside the top 27 to outside the top 27.--The mortal locks to get 110 targets based on team situations and the since-2002 stats.-- Varying situations (such as a QB change) and how much they effect targets.-- The relation of WR targets and the type of running game they may/may have not had.-- Rookie WR and their target information.Depending on the data gathered, I'm going to try and match targets to coaches and try and spot any trends. I'm not sure if this will be included, but it may.If anyone has any special requests, then just post it here. I'll try my best to get it in there if it's a reasonable suggestion.Okay, let me see if I got this.You are saying that 110 targets is the cutoff, so to speak, of a talented receiver who may not bust. SO you are looking to see who (from the non 110 guys) will jump up, while also seeing which guys over 110 will come down, and you looked at this over a period of years...cool. A few questions
See my previous post. Last year in SD, he was good for about 3.9 catches on 6.5 (ish) targets per game. And that's over 13 games, close to a full season sample. And that's despite having to move across country and pick up a new offense in midseason.
All WRs with low catch-to-target ratios aren't sucky receivers.
Agreed.Although Rivers is better than any other QB Chambers has worked with, and Rivers seems to like targeting Chambers. So I expect Chambers to get those 8 targets/game several times.
Okay, I will get off chambers. But when you see that for guys like evans and burress, it makes you wonder... T.O. has a similar problem, and in my mind, the only reason he is who he is is b/c of the TDs he scores. If he was a 5 TD guy, his catch percentage would be a bigger deal (it is a bit of a deal in terms of some of his easy drops that end up on sportscenter).I know one of my big early season ww things is looking for guys who had targets whether or not they had a good game. I actually prefer that they have a mediocre game with a lot of targets b/c most owners only look at the points scored, not the opportunity.
