The (new) urbanist, traditional walkable neighborhood, TOD & Place-Based Econ Dev thread: Off to APA then LOCUS - next month CNU (1 Viewer)

[dgreen]

Let's see how well a table can be pasted and posted here:


State


 Population 


 Permits 


Perm/1000


Utah


      3,051,217


           22,935


7.52


Colorado


      5,540,545


           38,393


6.93


District of Columbia


          681,170


             4,690


6.89


Idaho


      1,683,140


           11,476


6.82


South Carolina


      4,961,119


           31,356


6.32


South Dakota


          865,454


             5,464


6.31


Nevada


      2,940,058


           17,951


6.11


Delaware


          952,065


             5,768


6.06


Washington


      7,288,000


           43,239


5.93


Texas


    27,862,596


         162,323


5.83


North Carolina


    10,146,788


           57,090


5.63


Tennessee


      6,651,194


           36,864


5.54


Florida


    20,612,439


         113,912


5.53


North Dakota


          757,952


             3,968


5.24


Arizona


      6,931,071


           35,900


5.18


Georgia


    10,310,371


           51,052


4.95


Oregon


      4,093,465


           18,969


4.63


Iowa


      3,134,693


           13,806


4.40


Minnesota


      5,519,952


           24,263


4.40


Nebraska


      1,907,116


             8,108


4.25


Montana


      1,042,520


             4,086


3.92


Virginia


      8,411,808


           31,067


3.69


Wisconsin


      5,778,708


           18,706


3.24


Oklahoma


      3,923,561


           12,521


3.19


Louisiana


      4,681,666


           14,678


3.14


Arkansas


      2,988,248


             9,358


3.13


Maine


      1,331,479


             4,164


3.13


Missouri


      6,093,000


           19,004


3.12


Kansas


      2,907,289


             8,999


3.10


New Jersey


      8,944,469


           26,751


2.99


Alabama


      4,863,300


           14,471


2.98


Vermont


          624,594


             1,832


2.93


Kentucky


      4,436,974


           12,798


2.88


Wyoming


          585,501


             1,665


2.84


Maryland


      6,016,447


           16,925


2.81


Indiana


      6,633,053


           18,317


2.76


New Hampshire


      1,334,795


             3,607


2.70


California


    39,250,017


         100,265


2.55


Hawaii


      1,428,557


             3,375


2.36


New Mexico


      2,081,015


             4,856


2.33


Mississippi


      2,988,726


             6,900


2.31


Massachusetts


      6,811,779


           15,407


2.26


Michigan


      9,928,300


           22,426


2.26


Alaska


          741,894


             1,503


2.03


Ohio


    11,614,373


           22,269


1.92


Illinois


    12,801,539


           22,508


1.76


New York


    19,745,289


           34,387


1.74


Pennsylvania


    12,784,227


           20,761


1.62


Connecticut


      3,576,452


             5,341


1.49


West Virginia


      1,831,102


             2,525


1.38


Rhode Island


      1,056,426


             1,192


1.13

 

[Koya]

Let's see how well a table can be pasted and posted here:


State


 Population 


 Permits 


Perm/1000


Utah


      3,051,217


           22,935


7.52


Colorado


      5,540,545


           38,393


6.93


District of Columbia


          681,170


             4,690


6.89


Idaho


      1,683,140


           11,476


6.82


South Carolina


      4,961,119


           31,356


6.32


South Dakota


          865,454


             5,464


6.31


Nevada


      2,940,058


           17,951


6.11


Delaware


          952,065


             5,768


6.06


Washington


      7,288,000


           43,239


5.93


Texas


    27,862,596


         162,323


5.83


North Carolina


    10,146,788


           57,090


5.63


Tennessee


      6,651,194


           36,864


5.54


Florida


    20,612,439


         113,912


5.53


North Dakota


          757,952


             3,968


5.24


Arizona


      6,931,071


           35,900


5.18


Georgia


    10,310,371


           51,052


4.95


Oregon


      4,093,465


           18,969


4.63


Iowa


      3,134,693


           13,806


4.40


Minnesota


      5,519,952


           24,263


4.40


Nebraska


      1,907,116


             8,108


4.25


Montana


      1,042,520


             4,086


3.92


Virginia


      8,411,808


           31,067


3.69


Wisconsin


      5,778,708


           18,706


3.24


Oklahoma


      3,923,561


           12,521


3.19


Louisiana


      4,681,666


           14,678


3.14


Arkansas


      2,988,248


             9,358


3.13


Maine


      1,331,479


             4,164


3.13


Missouri


      6,093,000


           19,004


3.12


Kansas


      2,907,289


             8,999


3.10


New Jersey


      8,944,469


           26,751


2.99


Alabama


      4,863,300


           14,471


2.98


Vermont


          624,594


             1,832


2.93


Kentucky


      4,436,974


           12,798


2.88


Wyoming


          585,501


             1,665


2.84


Maryland


      6,016,447


           16,925


2.81


Indiana


      6,633,053


           18,317


2.76


New Hampshire


      1,334,795


             3,607


2.70


California


    39,250,017


         100,265


2.55


Hawaii


      1,428,557


             3,375


2.36


New Mexico


      2,081,015


             4,856


2.33


Mississippi


      2,988,726


             6,900


2.31


Massachusetts


      6,811,779


           15,407


2.26


Michigan


      9,928,300


           22,426


2.26


Alaska


          741,894


             1,503


2.03


Ohio


    11,614,373


           22,269


1.92


Illinois


    12,801,539


           22,508


1.76


New York


    19,745,289


           34,387


1.74


Pennsylvania


    12,784,227


           20,761


1.62


Connecticut


      3,576,452


             5,341


1.49


West Virginia


      1,831,102


             2,525


1.38


Rhode Island


      1,056,426


             1,192


1.13

a cursory look suggests a good amount of activity, not the opposite. After all, we have a ton of built product... in many suburban markets and especially exurban, overbuilt.  Need to absorb these while also absorbing new construction and our national growth rate is not a large one as a whole. 

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Eh. Those scores clearly indicate rural living. I know this is the urban thread, but rural living has appeal too. It's the middle ground of suburban that I've grown to dislike.

My walk score is 59. That has neither the value of urban living nor the appeal of rural living. I can walk to some stuff, but not enough. I can get to plenty of places in a decent time, but it pretty much has to be in a car.  And I can't do more rural things like sit on my porch and see absolutely nobody for hours or shoot a gun on my property or pee off my deck.

Well, we are in a suburban area, but it is pretty rural in character. We can be in downtown Seattle in 20-25 minutes when traffic is light, but there are cows in a pasture across the road.

I like those features. I am less thrilled with the fact there are no sidewalks between here and the middle school that three of our kids attend. You take the good with the bad.

 

[dgreen]

a cursory look suggests a good amount of activity, not the opposite. After all, we have a ton of built product... in many suburban markets and especially exurban, overbuilt.  Need to absorb these while also absorbing new construction and our national growth rate is not a large one as a whole. 

Yeah, I don't know what a good number is. I just know that I often see people complain about the lack of new housing.

 

[Koya]

Yeah, I don't know what a good number is. I just know that I often see people complain about the lack of new housing.

I think housing supply is a very local issue, with regional implications as well.  But hard to just put a blanket on it, nationally.

For one thing, you have declining markets (rust belt in terms of a region, exurban and far out suburban in terms of land use typology), while others are growing (Texas and walkable urban environments).

In general, there is a glut of exurban and a huge disparity between large demand and very little supply of the walkable urban.  That said, we have a national set of policies reflected at the local level almost everywhere other than core large cities, which makes it very easy to build more of the former, and very difficult to build the later.

The result is a discrepancy with our policies and the market, which means we have too much of what people don't want (and can build more easily), but not nearly enough of what a large and growing part of the market demands (and it's very difficult to get those projects approved and/or financed). 

So, in areas like San Fran? NOT ENOUGH HOUSING.  If we then take it a step further and talk about not just affordable housing for low or mid income but attainable priced housing even for the middle and upper middle class, that's in HUGE demand with VERY LITTLE supply in an area like San Fran/Bay Area.  

My overall take is we don't have a dearth of housing. We DO have a mismatch between what is available in the market and what people want, with policies that inhibit the market from shrinking that delta.  As a result, in certain areas (aka the places many people want to be), there is a lack of housing, certain of walkable, mixed-use and urban (including and especially that typology in generally suburban regions) which spikes up prices, making that issue all the more stressing on a region economically and socially.

Hope that makes some sense. 

 

[Koya]

BTW, with the chaos going on in Washington, there may actually be an opportunity to move the ball on how and where we invest in infrastructure - including a new emphasis on supporting the creation of walkable communities.  I work with Chris Leinberger, who heads up GWU's Urban Center for Real Estate Analysis (he's also with Brookings and others), who worked to get these articles published by a left and right leaning publication, respectively.  Has implications for urbanism across the board:

http://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/marchaprilmay-2017/the-thinking-persons-guide-to-infrastructure/

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-politics-of-infrastructure/

 

[Koya]

I also was fortunate enough to work with GWU and Chris on their most recent research, which studied EVERY single parcel in the entire NY Metro region.  The findings were consistent with their prior reports (DC, Atlanta, Boston, Detroit) demonstrating a clear correlation between better economic returns (tax ratables, property values) and also a new aspect, improvbed social equity (access to jobs, cost of living that takes both housing and transportation into account) as an area becomes more walkable. 

Long story short, for each additional point of walk score after an area reached a base score of 70, significant economic and social equity benefits attribute to a location.  In addition, walkable urbanism is taking up a lions share of the absorption and increased market share, at the expense of driveable surburban locations.  In fact, in some regions, driveable surburban is not only losing market share, but is actually resulting in net negative absorption.

Message: The market CLEARLY wants more walkable urban places, including and especially within suburban regions.  And creating those places has significant economic and social benefits for the communities and regions that embrace this type of development.

http://walkups.org/metrony/

 

[dgreen]

Message: The market CLEARLY wants more walkable urban places, including and especially within suburban regions.  And creating those places has significant economic and social benefits for the communities and regions that embrace this type of development.

It's nice to find these rare suburban-located WUPs. Did a roadtrip with my boys these past few days from DC to Detroit. I have a nephew in Plymouth, MI, so we had dinner with him. From my very brief time there, downtown Plymouth is a great example of what people want. It's a mix of old and new. Looked like some relatively new condos. A park in the center. No rail, though.

 

[Koya]

It's nice to find these rare suburban-located WUPs. Did a roadtrip with my boys these past few days from DC to Detroit. I have a nephew in Plymouth, MI, so we had dinner with him. From my very brief time there, downtown Plymouth is a great example of what people want. It's a mix of old and new. Looked like some relatively new condos. A park in the center. No rail, though.

Expect to see a lot more over the coming years, with three areas of focus.  One, revitalized downtowns - usually the most authentic, but they were/are small-medium sized downtowns for a reason, and are often best situated for moderate increases in residential and other densities. Transportation, connectivity, economic base and natural setting all play in. There are former large centers of commerce and culture that can and should support larger scale mixed-use development and become true regional nodes and destinations.

Second, greenfields in growing metros where instead of doing just low density single family homes and/or strip shopping centers. As discussed in this thread, not only is there a growing market for mixed-use and multifamily residential options but also shrinking retail. I was with a major developer of retail centers yesterday and they mentioned how many projects are still coming to them with 12-13 acres, but with the new smaller formats (i.e. the 15k square foot targets and pick up centers rather than full service stores) they only need 6-8, 10 max.  What do you do with the other 5-6 acres? Multifamily and mixed use is perfect. Larger projects will likely look to incorporate a transition from single family to some town home and then greater densities as you then get toward the retail frontages.

Finally, also as discussed above, you have conversion of retail centers and malls, aka suburban retrofits. This is 20 years of work with really well situated properties in good, stable markets that no longer fit the market's demands.  You'll see the 13 acre centers either become mixed-use small neighborhood spots or cut their retail to 6-8 acres and build some residential/multifamily and your larger power centers and malls can become anything from true town centers to major downtowns.

 

[Koya]

btw, almost done with a 15-20 page white paper on the retail / mall industry for a private sector client of ours... who happens to own and operate malls.  It's UGLY out there. A couple quotes I've found from researching this of late:

•  “Mall visits declined 50 percent between 2010 and 2013, according to the real-estate research firm Cushman and Wakefield, and they've kept falling every year since.” – Atlantic Weekly, April 10th 2017
  
• According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com Feb 17, 2017) a report conducted by Alder Hill Management on Jan. 30, 2017 stated that it expects more defaults of malls and mall properties during the current wave of retail closings and bankruptcies. The report stated “We expect 2017 to be a tipping point for the pace of retail store closures and rent reductions.” 
  
• Howard Davidowitz, chairman of the national retail‐consulting and investment‐banking firm Davidowitz & Associates, believes half of U.S. malls are subject to closure over the next 15‐20 years, with significant negative impacts to the local community.
  
• Don Wood, the CEO of Federal Realty Investment Trust, has said “A failing mall… will most likely will just stay there and get worse and worse over the next 20 years."  (source: Business Insider, Jan 31, 2014).
  

FYI, sears closings ALONE will account for nearly 30 MILLION square feet of empty retail back on the market - all within an antiquated, auto-oriented, large footprint and low density model.  Oof.

 

[Sammy3469]

Is this possible at all?  

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/rikers-tomorrow-article-1.3044815

 

[Koya]

Is this possible at all?  

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/rikers-tomorrow-article-1.3044815

Possible? 100%

Feasible? Almost certainly, but needs further study.

Advisable? Probably, needs further study.

Will it happen? Likely not.  We so rarely do GREAT BIG THINGS anymore... but this makes a lot of sense. 

 

[Koya]

Big week for me reppin' my new companies in the world of new urbanism and development. 

At the LOCUS, Responsible Developers conference today and tomorrow, moderating a panel on the urbanization of the suburbs with a focus on "walkable and amenity rich" suburban environments. Later this week will be back on Long Island to speak on a panel about the recent Walk Up report and it's implications for Long Island and other mature suburbs.

Next week I am off to my Mixed-Use Product Council at the Urban Land Institute, a joint meeting with the Congress for the New Urbanism and then fly from Seattle to NY as my new biz partner and I are tag-teaming a presentation titled "Planner as Developer, Developer as Planner"

Sure I'll learn a lot, meet some new folks and reconnect with a ton of old friends and colleagues... four really power-packed (but very different) events.

 

[Koya]

FYI, talking right now about the utter backwardness of this Administration's stated desire to cut programs like the CBDGs and other tax credits and resources for neighborhood level development... one of the few programs that pays back into the system more than it utilizes by fostering new growth, tax revenues and economic development... and that's not even considering the benefits of overcoming issues such as crime, health related issues that arise from poorly built environments etc.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Big week for me reppin' my new companies in the world of new urbanism and development. 

At the LOCUS, Responsible Developers conference today and tomorrow, moderating a panel on the urbanization of the suburbs with a focus on "walkable and amenity rich" suburban environments. Later this week will be back on Long Island to speak on a panel about the recent Walk Up report and it's implications for Long Island and other mature suburbs.

Next week I am off to my Mixed-Use Product Council at the Urban Land Institute, a joint meeting with the Congress for the New Urbanism and then fly from Seattle to NY as my new biz partner and I are tag-teaming a presentation titled "Planner as Developer, Developer as Planner"

Sure I'll learn a lot, meet some new folks and reconnect with a ton of old friends and colleagues... four really power-packed (but very different) events.

Not attending the Natl APA Conference in NYC next week?

 

[Koya]

Not attending the Natl APA Conference in NYC next week?

That is where my partner and I are speaking back in NY! Should have been more clear... we are speaking Monday AM, May 6th. If anyone here is attending drop by! Free signed copies of... well, I got nothin'

 

[mr roboto]

btw, almost done with a 15-20 page white paper on the retail / mall industry for a private sector client of ours... who happens to own and operate malls.  It's UGLY out there. A couple quotes I've found from researching this of late:

•  “Mall visits declined 50 percent between 2010 and 2013, according to the real-estate research firm Cushman and Wakefield, and they've kept falling every year since.” – Atlantic Weekly, April 10th 2017
  
• According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com Feb 17, 2017) a report conducted by Alder Hill Management on Jan. 30, 2017 stated that it expects more defaults of malls and mall properties during the current wave of retail closings and bankruptcies. The report stated “We expect 2017 to be a tipping point for the pace of retail store closures and rent reductions.” 
  
• Howard Davidowitz, chairman of the national retail‐consulting and investment‐banking firm Davidowitz & Associates, believes half of U.S. malls are subject to closure over the next 15‐20 years, with significant negative impacts to the local community.
  
• Don Wood, the CEO of Federal Realty Investment Trust, has said “A failing mall… will most likely will just stay there and get worse and worse over the next 20 years."  (source: Business Insider, Jan 31, 2014).
  

FYI, sears closings ALONE will account for nearly 30 MILLION square feet of empty retail back on the market - all within an antiquated, auto-oriented, large footprint and low density model.  Oof.

Our Sears in Eden Prairie MN is going to be a brand new Scheels - this is an upper Midwest regional mega-sporting goods store (think Bass Pro combined with #####). I just opened a small personal training studio in an out lot strip building that's adjacent to this side of the mall. 

So many of the small retail spaces are being used for service businesses now (fitness, banks, CPAs, chiro/dentist/MRI etc). Because small footprint retail is a very tough game unless you have a luxury/niche component or a service component. 

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

That is where my partner and I are speaking back in NY! Should have been more clear... we are speaking Monday AM, May 6th. If anyone here is attending drop by! Free signed copies of... well, I got nothin'

Boss is attending.  I'm relegated to the MI-State Planning Conference on Mackinaw Island this year.

 

[Koya]

Boss is attending.  I'm relegated to the MI-State Planning Conference on Mackinaw Island this year.

Feel free to shoot me a pm with your company info... ill be at ULI and CNU through Sat AM, then off to NYC for APA.

On a product council here at ULI and speaking at APA Monday AM

 

[msommer]

@Koya

The last paragraph is right up your alley

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

@Koya

The last paragraph is right up your alley

Peter Calthorpe is the god of New Urbanism

 

[Koya]

Peter Calthorpe is the god of New Urbanism

Good stuff, @msommer - Calthorpe has long been a thought leader in the field, though some feel he's become a bit too academic as opposed to action oriented. Great thinker, well ahead of his time. I had the pleasure of meeting him a few years back (briefly

 

[Koya]

Up in Salt Lake City area today scouting out walkable urban development opps. 

Say what you want about mormons, but this city might have the highest hotness ratio of chicks without huge NY/LA attitudes anywhere in the nation. 

 

[Koya]

Just had the pleasure of moderating a rockstar panel at the International Economic Development Conference on the topic of "The Village as the New Corporate Relocation Platform" - basically talking about the need to provide at least some amount of walkable, vibrant environments along with an array of mobility choices.  As I was waiting for my plane back from Toronto, I threw together this blog, thought I'd share for the geeks in here:

Why Amazon’s HQ2 RFP Matters (especially for cities and regions who won't win)

The Economic Development world is afire with the buzz about Amazon. Who will be the winner? Are Boston or Denver leaders in the club house? Can smaller metros compete with the usual suspects, potentially vaulting their city to the world stage?

Or, does it even matter? After all, only one place is going to win (or, maybe not).

Let’s be honest, how many locations can support the 50,000 new employees, millions upon millions of new square feet of real estate and thousands of new residential units including multifamily and traditional suburban options alike? That doesn’t even contemplate the immense infrastructure and transportation needs.

IT MATTERS!  

Why?

Whether a region seeks to retain, grow or attract companies of 50,000, 5,000, 500 or 50, Amazon has provided a clear blueprint of what employers seek: It’s no longer about just tending to the needs of the C-Level execs (good schools, nice houses!) and providing the best incentive package. Those things matter, but there is a new lever that has risen to paramount importance. That lever is talent.

For companies in the knowledge and innovation sectors, the ability to retain and attract talent has become paramount. No amount of tax breaks can compensate if a region is unable to do so.

At a Panel I recently moderated at the International Economic Development Council’s World Forum in Toronto, it became clear that three factors are necessary to attract top talent and the companies that employ them:

1.      Walkable, mixed-use environments are essential

2.      A full range of housing options must be provided – from single family homes, to townhomes, to multi-family options

3.      Connectivity: From both an IT perspective (gotta have your fiber), and people perspective (must connect people and places)

To achieve these aims, towns, cities and regions must re-examine their approach to Economic Development and utilize an approach called Place-Based Economic Development. Only an integrated approach that bridges urban planning and real estate development with innovative infrastructure solutions can provide the penumbra effect, whereby a region can provide traditional Economic Development needs such as incentives and a business friendly environment while addressing the new emphasis on place.

While there may only be one winner in the HQ2 sweepstakes (although some industry insiders believe there may be multiple “consolation” prizes), regions across the country can benefit by reading the blueprint, integrating economic development with placemaking and utilizing new approaches to infrastructure and connectivity.

This approach accelerates the creation of a sustainable innovation ecosystem that meet the needs of the both the employer and the new workforce – and today it’s the latter that represents the most important party of the equation. 

After all, it's about the talent.

 

[dgreen]

Virginia has been adding HOT (High Occupancy Toll) lanes recently. I believe the law is that any new lanes constructed that are HOT lanes can be run privately and the profits go to the company and any existing HOV lanes that are converted to HOT lanes will be run by the state and revenue goes to the state.

A few years ago, several miles were constructed on 495 (the infamous beltway) between the I-95 interchange and just north of Tysons Corner (large office/retail area). Then the HOV lanes on I-95 south of 495 were converted to HOT lanes more recently. Those lanes will soon continue up 395 into DC.

Just yesterday, the I-66 lanes inside the beltway were converted to HOT lanes. These lanes were exclusively HOV inbound in the morning and outbound in the evening commute. All other times, the lanes were not HOV. So, they were converted to HOT lanes, now allowing single drivers to legally use the lanes during rush hour in the peak direction. So far, the toll has peaked around $40 in the morning for the approximately 10 mile trip from the beltway to the DC line. As you might expect, tons of people are pissed. It seems illogical to me to be pissed, but I won't go there right now; just wanted to post here some of the goings-on in the DC area.

The 495, 95, and soon-to-be 395 HOT lanes are all HOV-3 and tolled for any car with 1 or 2 people. The 66 lanes that just opened are HOV-2. Construction is just now about to start on installing HOT lanes on 66 outside the beltway. 20+ miles of HOT lanes will be added that will connect with the existing I-66 and 495 HOT lanes. Once those lanes open, all of I-66 will be increased to HOV-3 (I think it should change now). Again, these will be newly constructed so I believe they will be privately run and profits go to the private company. We've been told revenue from the newly opened I-66 lanes (run by the state) will go towards transit improvements. Some of those ideas will be express buses from way out suburbs using the 20+ miles of upcoming HOT lanes. Right now, buses use the current HOV lane which is just one, non-separated, left lane that moves just as well/bad as the non-HOV lanes on 66 so these lanes will be huge for commuter buses. I believe they've been advertising 40 minute commutes into DC from areas that are probably easily over 90 minutes right now.

We'll see how all this works. I'm just glad we're finally trying something new (or at least I assume it's new). The usual methods of traffic relief haven't worked too well.

 

[Koya]

As we enter 2018, I'm approaching full speed in terms of health and career - though restarting the latter is not so simple, especially as I adjust from Developer funded by deep enough pockets to consultant looking for some crumbs while my development work gets off the ground (but won't likely pay out much for a couple years, though I hope to get some fee development gigs that could bring in substantial revenue before then). 

I am fortunate enough to be speaking at a number of conferences again - just recently spoke at the American Planning Association North Texas Chapter late last year.  I have the following lined up (some of which are even paid, some just great exposure):

Feb 6th -"Connecting to Opportunity Summit" in Durham, NC which is a full day dedicated to discussing all aspects and potential positive outcomes associated with the Durham-Orange Light Rail Line (connecting Durham to Chapel Hill).  This is the project on which I am a team member for a comprehensive value capture and land use planning engagement. 

Feb 7th - National Appraisal Institute on Long Island to discuss Real Estate forecasts, trends and discuss the shifts in retail and continued emergence of walkable and mobility rich communities.  

April 21 - American Planning Association's annual conference, in New Orleans. Too bad I'm only there for a couple days, will do my best to get me some FFA BBQ though.  Topic is Place-Based Economic Development and the need to align urban design, real estate development, infrastructure, mobility and public policy.  

April 22 - LOCUS Responsible Developers Leadership Summit at the National Press Club in D.C.- on a panel with some old friends and colleagues to address a range of issues related to the development of walkable mixed-use communities, in an engaging session with the audience. 

In addition to my speaking gigs, I will be attending the Congress for the New Urbanism in Savannah Georgia May 15-19 as a spectator and to drum up some new business while re-establishing some relationships that have gone quite during my health battles and surgeries.  Haven't been since I was a speaker a few years back in Salt Lake City - and while I have issues with CNU's overly insular and academic approach, I've heard that may be shifting and hope to see that pan out.  It's still a conference attended by some brilliant people - and the tipping point was I've never been to Savannah and can't freakin' wait.  My first true working vacation.

 

[Koya]

Anyone heading to APA in New Orleans? I'll be leading a session tomorrow at 10:45. 

 

[msommer]

Anyone heading to APA in New Orleans? I'll be leading a session tomorrow at 10:45. 

Don't forget to test out McClure's BBQ at NOLA Brewing

 

[Koya]

Don't forget to test out McClure's BBQ at NOLA Brewing

I already have been to his spot - gonna do my best to check out the new NOLA Brew location, but it's a super tight trip this time.  All work, little New Orleans. 

 

[msommer]

I already have been to his spot - gonna do my best to check out the new NOLA Brew location, but it's a super tight trip this time.  All work, little New Orleans. 

Bad planinng

 

[Koya]

My session kicks off in 5 minutes... already getting close to capacity! (Room probably holds 200)

 

[Koya]

Holy cow. That was freakin awesome. 

Room sat 200. At LEAST 100 more weee standing and literally huddled at the door and put into the hallway. Probably my best speech since I recovered from my surgeries and feels great to be back in the game. 

Best part is the message really seemed to resonate with the audience, and the feedback I received afterward was enough to make even a stage hogging NY Jew blush.  Might just get a couple new clients at that 

 

[Slapdash]

Wood high-rises are the way to bring @Koya back:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DPp2NcnTb0

 

[Koya]

Heya folks - REALLY wish I could get into a lot of this, but unfortunately I'm not able to communicate earnestly nor honestly here considering the requests of management (which I respect) in lieu of the overall political climate (which, btw, much of this issue relates to, in a number of ways).

I won't hide the thread, just won't likely respond as I'm trying to stay out of the frey.  Appreciate all the input!

 

[Redwes25]

Saw this article on AVs and thought of this thread and urban planning impacts. You keep hearing about benefits AVs will bring but maybe they won’t. 

https://jalopnik.com/zombie-miles-and-napa-weekends-how-a-week-with-chauffe-1839648416

 

[Long Ball Larry]

anyone with thoughts or suggestions for up and coming towns like this on the east coast where I could look to get in early?

 

[bentley]

Austin trying to adopt a new LDC for the first time in 35 years. NIMBYs out spreading lies in full force against it. Lots of people who built their net worth out of their single family homes in neighborhoods with restrictive covenants that prevented black and brown people from moving in are suddenly worried about preserving “neighborhood character.”

 

[dgreen]

anyone with thoughts or suggestions for up and coming towns like this on the east coast where I could look to get in early?

Maybe Charlotte? I think it’s still relatively cheap there. 

Not sure if Norfolk or Richmond will get there during our lifetime. Norfolk at least already has a short light rail line and has had some decent development downtown. Richmond has started a BRT line but I’ve heard no talk of rail there. Some great old neighborhoods in Richmond, though. 

Roanoke recently got Amtrak service back and is really cheap. Supposed to be a great outdoors city. 

Tons of cheap stuff in Baltimore. No idea when some of their neighborhoods make a comeback. If HSR can link Baltimore and DC with a 15 minute ride, Baltimore could explode. No chance this happens anytime soon, though.

 

[BassNBrew]

Maybe Charlotte? I think it’s still relatively cheap there. 

Not sure if Norfolk or Richmond will get there during our lifetime. Norfolk at least already has a short light rail line and has had some decent development downtown. Richmond has started a BRT line but I’ve heard no talk of rail there. Some great old neighborhoods in Richmond, though. 

Roanoke recently got Amtrak service back and is really cheap. Supposed to be a great outdoors city. 

Tons of cheap stuff in Baltimore. No idea when some of their neighborhoods make a comeback. If HSR can link Baltimore and DC with a 15 minute ride, Baltimore could explode. No chance this happens anytime soon, though.

I think that ship has sailed in Charlotte. I’m sensing a bubble and Wall Street has bought up 10% of the homes over the last decade.  Been ages since I’ve seen a home I could buy and fix up for a profit.  Apts have gone up everywhere. I’ve seen two corrections before and were overdue for another 

 

[dgreen]

https://twitter.com/jessicalavoice/status/1196173848615342080?s=21

 

[Slapdash]

I think that ship has sailed in Charlotte. I’m sensing a bubble and Wall Street has bought up 10% of the homes over the last decade.  Been ages since I’ve seen a home I could buy and fix up for a profit.  Apts have gone up everywhere. I’ve seen two corrections before and were overdue for another 

Depends on what you are looking for.  Single-family homes walkable to the Blue Line are going to keep going up in value.  Tear downs have slowed, but not stopped.

 

[mr roboto]

@Koya interested to hear your thoughts on urbanism re:WFH potentially being a strong permanent change to the workforce. 

 

[dgreen]

@Koya interested to hear your thoughts on urbanism re:WFH potentially being a strong permanent change to the workforce. 

Yeah, will be interesting to see what happens if WFH really grows. Obviously, WFH eliminates the need to live near an office. But, will that mean that people will move away from urban areas? Or will there still be demand for urban living and people opt to live in cheaper cities?

When I started WFH several years ago, one thing that really helped with was transportation costs. Maybe people will still want to live in some of the more popular/expensive cities and a reduction in transportation costs might help afford those higher rents.

 

[DaVinci]

Yeah, will be interesting to see what happens if WFH really grows. Obviously, WFH eliminates the need to live near an office. But, will that mean that people will move away from urban areas? Or will there still be demand for urban living and people opt to live in cheaper cities?

When I started WFH several years ago, one thing that really helped with was transportation costs. Maybe people will still want to live in some of the more popular/expensive cities and a reduction in transportation costs might help afford those higher rents.

I’m paying a premium to rent a place 3 miles from my office in NOVA. If my job converted to permanent WFH, I’d be looking at smaller towns further out from DC.

 

[El Floppo]

@Koya interested to hear your thoughts on urbanism re:WFH potentially being a strong permanent change to the workforce. 

looking forward to hearing what Koya says- glad you bumped this.

I may not be the norm, but we love living in the city (NYC)- regardless of being close to work or not. But Covid has put the hurt on much of what makes city living great: diverse culture and society, along with walking and public transportation everywhere to enjoy those things. If commercial real-estate really does permanently skip out on cities, what fills the vacuum? what does it mean for those that stay? 

 

[Redwes25]

Also interested as well given I live in Brooklyn and don’t see us leaving it. COVID has changed things but I can still walk to the coffee shop a block away and corner store is on my block. I love that lifestyle and don’t want to be in a car for everything.
 

Once we enter a post vaccine world I think those benefits will continue to shine. The end of NYC has been predicted so many times and I don’t see that happening. 

 

[dgreen]

I’m paying a premium to rent a place 3 miles from my office in NOVA. If my job converted to permanent WFH, I’d be looking at smaller towns further out from DC.

Pre-covid, I was WFH 4 days/week. Now I'm obviously full WFH and I'm hopeful that I can continue full WFH even once covid is under control. If so, we'll get the kids through HS in NOVA (five more years) and then figure it out from there.

We like cities and urban lifestyle. We're considering renting a small place in DC for a few years after kids are out and before retirement, especially if I'm still expected to be in an office fairly regularly. I also like the idea of living in the heart of one of VA's smaller/medium cities. But, my wife and I are both DC/NOVA lifers so we're kind of itching to go somewhere else. 

 

[the moops]

Don't think our buddy @Koya is hanging around here too much these days. 

 

[dgreen]

Also interested as well given I live in Brooklyn and don’t see us leaving it. COVID has changed things but I can still walk to the coffee shop a block away and corner store is on my block. I love that lifestyle and don’t want to be in a car for everything.
 

Once we enter a post vaccine world I think those benefits will continue to shine. The end of NYC has been predicted so many times and I don’t see that happening. 

My sense of NYC is that people want to live there because of the city itself. I think cities that might be in trouble with WFH are those that attract people just because of jobs and not because of the other amenities. Not sure what city fits that description, though.

I do wonder about DC. Government has slowly moved towards some WFH and I think that will grow a lot after covid as agencies successfully complete their mission with WFH during covid. Would that lead to a DC exodus? But, I'd also like to think that DC is a city similar to NYC in that it's a place that people like to be and it offers a lot outside of work. If people don't think other cities can match the lifestyle of places like NYC/DC/SF/etc, then people still might stay there even if they are 100% WFH. Also, I think a lot of government business and interactions is still going to want face-to-face. Lobbying/schmoozing probably won't go exclusively virtual. Large government contractors probably still want a face-to-face presence with politicians and leaders in the executive branch. These are all just ignorant ramblings, though. I really have no idea what happens if there's a major shift towards WFH or if a major shift is even likely.

 

[BassNBrew]

All these over priced mass transit projects aren’t looking so hot