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The NFC East 2020: WFT and Ron Rivera in Full Command (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
The beleaguered Philadelphia Eagles managed to springboard a 5 quarter all out War with the Cincinnati Bengals resulting in a bitter tie that might have been the turning point of the season and now they find themselves after taking a Half Measure the week prior, this week they took a Full Measure by beating the San Francisco 49'ers. Yes this team gets their first victory in Week 4 and takes sole possession of 1st Place, Ladies and Gentlemen I present your 1st Place Philadelphia Eagles. 

Philly 1-2-1

Dallas 1-3

Washington 1-3...they are playing hard

NY Giants 0-4

Looking ahead, Dallas has a fairly soft schedule facing the NFC EAST plus Arizona, those are 4 winnable games whatever that means so they should go 2-2? I'll aim for 4-4 by Week 8. 

Philly will be lucky to win 2 of their next 4 games and 2-5-1 is not out of the question by Week 8. We'll say 3-4-1 just to give Dallas somebody to run with. 

NY Giants play the NFC East plus the Bucs, could be 0-8 or 1-7...when does the GM get fired there?

WFT plays the NYG twice plus Dallas and the Rams, anywhere from 2-6 to maybe 3-5 if they get a few breaks?

We will check back and see how things have progressed in about a month. 

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
WFT beats Dallas and NYG beat PHI and you get...

WFT 2-5

NYG 2-5

Dallas 2-5

PHI 1-5-1

Then if we play it out the next week 

Phi Beats Dallas and NYG lose to the Bucs, WFT on Bye

Phi 2-5-1

WFT 2-5

Dallas 2-6

NY Giants 2-6

Not very likely but it's possible. 

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Having fun playing crystal ball?

I couldn't resist going out a couple more weeks just to see...

Week 9 

NY Giants beat WFT and Dallas get waxed by Pittsburgh, Philly on a Bye loses no ground really. 

NYG 3-6

Phi  2-5-1

WFT 2-6

Dallas 2-7

Week 10

WFT will be beat by the Lions, Eagles take the Giants and Dallas is on a Bye

Phi 3-5-1

NYG 3-7

WFT 2-7

Dallas 2-7

You could see this Division being won at 6-10 right now, most of the time they are going to be Underdogs vs whoever they are playing outside the NFC East. 

 

Manster

Footballguy
Cowboys went from top tier O line to a really bad O line......that and a bad defense, even with VanderEsch back....what a #### show

 

YoUnG GuNz

Footballguy
Eagles take it with 7 wins. Wentz is finally rounding back in form and took two of the best teams in the NFL down to the wire, beat SF on the road. They will get some key pieces back soon. Wentz vs Foles Rd 1 of the wild card round.

 

voiceofunreason

Footballguy
Eagles take it with 7 wins. Wentz is finally rounding back in form and took two of the best teams in the NFL down to the wire, beat SF on the road. They will get some key pieces back soon. Wentz vs Foles Rd 1 of the wild card round.
Can't argue that the eagles easily look like the best team, not that it's saying much. Washington is the dark horse if the qb play is decent though.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Eagles take it with 7 wins. Wentz is finally rounding back in form and took two of the best teams in the NFL down to the wire, beat SF on the road. They will get some key pieces back soon. Wentz vs Foles Rd 1 of the wild card round.


Can't argue that the eagles easily look like the best team, not that it's saying much. Washington is the dark horse if the qb play is decent though.
I've got the Eagles right now at 3-5-1 after Week 10 in firm control at that point and ready for the 2nd Half Run, that will start with losses to Cleveland, Seattle and Green Bay

3-8-1 and Ready for Fun or if you want to try and give them Cleveland as a Win, you're still at 4-7-1 which just looks awful. 

 

Deamon

Footballguy
I've got the Eagles right now at 3-5-1 after Week 10 in firm control at that point and ready for the 2nd Half Run, that will start with losses to Cleveland, Seattle and Green Bay

3-8-1 and Ready for Fun or if you want to try and give them Cleveland as a Win, you're still at 4-7-1 which just looks awful. 
I know you're having a blast with this, but think you're underestimating their wins.  Don't get me wrong, everyone in the div sucks and the winner will have a losing record.  But some teams in this div will get some upset wins, and still lots of games against each other.  The winner likely ends with 6.5 to 7.5 wins.

 
COVID has changed a lot of the approaches this year.

If they can change the playoff format to expand qualifier from 12 to 14 teams, surely they can change the edict that the division winner gets a guaranteed berth.

None of these teams from the NFC LEast deserve it.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I know you're having a blast with this, but think you're underestimating their wins.  Don't get me wrong, everyone in the div sucks and the winner will have a losing record.  But some teams in this div will get some upset wins, and still lots of games against each other.  The winner likely ends with 6.5 to 7.5 wins.
I have Philly winning 2 out of 3 over 4 Weeks with a Bye mixed in there and then getting waxed 3x by Cleveland, Seattle and Green Bay...you're disagreeing? Yes I am having a blast in here right now but I don't think most of my takes are way out in Pluto or nothing, I mean I'm laying out a fairly likely scenario. If they don't win 2 of their next 3, OK they take a win from one of those three I mentioned, they still come away with about the same record I posted. Yes/no? 

I can see them getting from 4-7-1 to say 6-9-1 and winning the Division over a 6-10 Dallas Cowboys team, i just hadn't quite finished looking into my crystal ball. 😉

 

[scooter]

Footballguy
This could be the impetus for finally getting rid of the 4 division format. The NFL needs to switch to 2 divisions per conference, with the winner of each division getting a BYE and then the next 4 from either division get the remaining playoff spots.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
I have Philly winning 2 out of 3 over 4 Weeks with a Bye mixed in there and then getting waxed 3x by Cleveland, Seattle and Green Bay...you're disagreeing? Yes I am having a blast in here right now but I don't think most of my takes are way out in Pluto or nothing, I mean I'm laying out a fairly likely scenario. If they don't win 2 of their next 3, OK they take a win from one of those three I mentioned, they still come away with about the same record I posted. Yes/no? 

I can see them getting from 4-7-1 to say 6-9-1 and winning the Division over a 6-10 Dallas Cowboys team, i just hadn't quite finished looking into my crystal ball😉
Haha.. I think you purposely stopped after week 12/13 for dramatic effect.

 

 

Deamon

Footballguy
This could be the impetus for finally getting rid of the 4 division format. The NFL needs to switch to 2 divisions per conference, with the winner of each division getting a BYE and then the next 4 from either division get the remaining playoff spots.
1. Everyone loves to go crazy when a sub .500 team wins a division... It's only happened twice in NFL history.  So probably no need to change everything for something that happens 1 time every 25 years??

2. The league just jumped to 7 playoff teams, they're not going to go backwards to 6.

 

[scooter]

Footballguy
This could be the impetus for finally getting rid of the 4 division format. The NFL needs to switch to 2 divisions per conference, with the winner of each division getting a BYE and then the next 4 from either division get the remaining playoff spots.
1. Everyone loves to go crazy when a sub .500 team wins a division... It's only happened twice in NFL history.  So probably no need to change everything for something that happens 1 time every 25 years??
"Twice in NFL history" sounds like a small number. "Twice in the last 10 years" does not.

At any rate, I'm not as concerned about the actual win/loss record as I'm concerned about the fairness of punishing good teams in tough divisions, while rewarding godawful teams for doing little more than being slightly-less-awful than 3 of the worst teams in the league.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
"Twice in NFL history" sounds like a small number. "Twice in the last 10 years" does not.

At any rate, I'm not as concerned about the actual win/loss record as I'm concerned about the fairness of punishing good teams in tough divisions, while rewarding godawful teams for doing little more than being slightly-less-awful than 3 of the worst teams in the league.
Twice in the last 10 years still isn't a lot and is also cherry picking that exact last season.  I could just as easily say once in the last 9 years.  A better number to look at would be since the divisions re-aligned in 2002.  So twice in 18 years of 8 divisions a year has this happened.  You don't need to change a rule for something that happens 1/72 times.

As for your 2nd point, they're not terribly punished.  There's 3 wildcard teams now... an entire division could make the playoffs.  And if those teams are that much better than the awful div winner, they should have no problem beating them.  I doubt the NFCE winner has much of a chance in the playoffs.

 
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Pip's Invitation

Footballguy
Eagles take it with 7 wins. Wentz is finally rounding back in form and took two of the best teams in the NFL down to the wire, beat SF on the road. They will get some key pieces back soon. Wentz vs Foles Rd 1 of the wild card round.
In 2018 and 2019, the Eagles lost games they shouldn’t have early on, but later won games they shouldn’t have and made the playoffs. It’s possible they do it again, but their injury situation is insane and a lot would need to go right there.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
NFC Playoff teams will be jockeying for seeding just so they can smash one of these clowns in the first round.
Well it will be the best wildcard team that gets to play them, so wouldn't everyone still be trying to finish as best they can? 

Or are you suggesting a team would rather NOT win their div and come 2nd in order to go on the road to play them instead of winning the div and hosting a playoff game? 

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
Well it will be the best wildcard team that gets to play them, so wouldn't everyone still be trying to finish as best they can? 

Or are you suggesting a team would rather NOT win their div and come 2nd in order to go on the road to play them instead of winning the div and hosting a playoff game? 
Have they determined how they're going to do the seeding in the new playoff format?  In the past the division winners were higher seeds than teams with better records who did not win their divisions. 

 

Manster

Footballguy
Eagles have lost 8 of their top 10 O-linemen!!! :P
Dude, it's the race to the ultimate of suckdom!!   

I remember the days when the East was a proud division......all four teams were respectable, and competitive........and now, the laughing stock of the NFL

 

Deamon

Footballguy
Have they determined how they're going to do the seeding in the new playoff format?  In the past the division winners were higher seeds than teams with better records who did not win their divisions. 
Yes, that is how it will still be. Meaning the worst div winner (nfc east team) will play the best wild card team round 1. 

So of course every team would want to be the best wild card team... they would anyways. 

You suggested a team may try to purposely play the nfc east winner... which means you're suggesting a team would rather come 2nd in their div (possibly go on the road to play nfc east) instead of 1st in their div and be the div winner hosting a playoff game?

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
Yes, that is how it will still be. Meaning the worst div winner (nfc east team) will play the best wild card team round 1. 

So of course every team would want to be the best wild card team... they would anyways. 

You suggested a team may try to purposely play the nfc east winner... which means you're suggesting a team would rather come 2nd in their div (possibly go on the road to play nfc east) instead of 1st in their div and be the div winner hosting a playoff game?
How big of an advantage is home field with no or minimal fans?  It's all about win probability.  If you can play one of these NFC East teams on the road or one of the other playoff contenders at home it's not as cut and dry in 2020.  Of course you play to win the game, but a team might think about resting starters in week 17 if their division is out of reach, and the punishment for a loss is the 6-9-1 NFC East winner. 

 

Deamon

Footballguy
How big of an advantage is home field with no or minimal fans?  It's all about win probability.  If you can play one of these NFC East teams on the road or one of the other playoff contenders at home it's not as cut and dry in 2020.  Of course you play to win the game, but a team might think about resting starters in week 17 if their division is out of reach, and the punishment for a loss is the 6-9-1 NFC East winner. 
I know you're trying to back up your original claim but that is one of the most ridiculous thoughts I've ever heard.  Winning the division is huge.  More team revenue, less travel on your team, you may end up hosting MULTIPLE home playoff games vs going on the road for the entire playoffs, etc. etc.

There's absolutely no way a team would rather have a wild card spot than a division win.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
I know you're trying to back up your original claim but that is one of the most ridiculous thoughts I've ever heard.  Winning the division is huge.  More team revenue, less travel on your team, you may end up hosting MULTIPLE home playoff games vs going on the road for the entire playoffs, etc. etc.

There's absolutely no way a team would rather have a wild card spot than a division win.
If their division was out of reach? 

 

Deamon

Footballguy
If their division was out of reach? 
Not sure what you're missing here. 

If their division was out of reach, then they'd want to WIN every game to become the BEST wildcard team (who would then get to play NFC East in round 1).

 

Deamon

Footballguy
Got it.  I'll hang up and listen. 
I know it's tempting to try to play them round 1, but in this case you'd want to win as much as possible in order to play them. 

I do think whoever wins the div will lose round 1, unless they somehow get healthy.

 

IHEARTFF

Footballguy
Increase travel drastically, damage rivalries, all for something that happens 1% of the time? 

No.
Dallas isn't in the East geographically. I'm just saying if you want to make the argument, point to a horrible division as a good reason to make it. Teams could still play their rivals every season. Just an idea.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
Dallas isn't in the East geographically. I'm just saying if you want to make the argument, point to a horrible division as a good reason to make it. Teams could still play their rivals every season. Just an idea.
No Dallas isn't, but if you're abolishing ALL divisions, the travel would skyrocket league wide.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
That's the same argument. Below average team gets to host a playoff game. Not a great product by the NFL.
Ya.  Again, only ever happened twice in history.  And those Panthers/Seahawks teams both won pretty good round 1 games... not sure that's a 'bad product'

 

Deamon

Footballguy
Potentially, unless geography is a primary factor in the new set up. 
Not sure how that could be with zero divisions as you suggest.  Also scheduling would be a nightmare and how do you determine who you get to play?

The division system now works so well for rivalries, less travel, scheduling, and aiding league parity.  To blow it all up for something that happens 1 time every 25 years seems like the over-reaction of the year.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
Not saying this really relates to how bad the NFCE is at all, but have we ever seen a season where 30% of the teams in the NFL have 1 win or less through 6 weeks?

 

IHEARTFF

Footballguy
I also think you are underestimating how many bad teams have made the playoffs since the switch to 8 divisions. Not only a couple of teams that won their division at 7-9, there has been a few 8-8 teams in the playoffs as well. Not saying those teams are noticeably worse than 9-7 blah teams. Since the 2002 switch there have been 7 teams making the playoffs with 7 or 8 wins and certainly there will be another this year.

 

dhockster

Footballguy
So since 2002, when the NFL went to its current 4 team divisional structure, the worst divisional record was the 2008 NFC West which finished with a cumulative record of 22-42. If you take out the divisional games which had a record of 12-12, the division was 10-30 against non-divisional opponents for a .250 winning percentage. Currently the NFC East's non-divisional record is 2-15-1 for a .139 winning percentage

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
So since 2002, when the NFL went to its current 4 team divisional structure, the worst divisional record was the 2008 NFC West which finished with a cumulative record of 22-42. If you take out the divisional games which had a record of 12-12, the division was 10-30 against non-divisional opponents for a .250 winning percentage. Currently the NFC East's non-divisional record is 2-15-1 for a .139 winning percentage
Dallas: Starting QB is now the Daisy Red Ryder from Christmas Story and he looks like Peter Billingsley is pulling the trigger. 

NY Giants: Daniel Jones year two without his All Pro RB and teams are learning that Danny Dimes is more like a Dimebag at times. 

WFT: Alex Smith is back

Philly: Wentz just lost his RB1 and TE1 depending on your definition and has nobody to throw the football to that has much of an NFL resume. 

What games are NFC East teams going to be favored in?

 

Deamon

Footballguy
So since 2002, when the NFL went to its current 4 team divisional structure, the worst divisional record was the 2008 NFC West which finished with a cumulative record of 22-42. If you take out the divisional games which had a record of 12-12, the division was 10-30 against non-divisional opponents for a .250 winning percentage. Currently the NFC East's non-divisional record is 2-15-1 for a .139 winning percentage
This is the stat I was hoping someone would find, thank you.

This seems to be a lock for worst combined record of a division ever.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
Dallas: Starting QB is now the Daisy Red Ryder from Christmas Story and he looks like Peter Billingsley is pulling the trigger. 

NY Giants: Daniel Jones year two without his All Pro RB and teams are learning that Danny Dimes is more like a Dimebag at times. 

WFT: Alex Smith is back

Philly: Wentz just lost his RB1 and TE1 depending on your definition and has nobody to throw the football to that has much of an NFL resume. 

What games are NFC East teams going to be favored in?
Maybe none.  But upsets happen.

KC will also be favoured in every game this season but will not go 16-0.

The final records will be slightly better than you hope for, but will still be the worst ever.

 

Insein

Footballguy
Eagles are the best team in this division. That's not saying much right now with more than half their starters and backups out but it's true. I expect them to finish 8-7-1. 

 

Deamon

Footballguy
Eagles are the best team in this division. That's not saying much right now with more than half their starters and backups out but it's true. I expect them to finish 8-7-1. 
I think that's a bit high.  I'll give them 6.5 or 7.5 wins, not sure yet.  Here's my predicted final standings:

Eagles 7-8-1
Cowboys 7-9
Eagles 6-9-1
Giants 5-11
Wash 3-13

 

 

wgoldsph

Footballguy
I think that's a bit high.  I'll give them 6.5 or 7.5 wins, not sure yet.  Here's my predicted final standings:

Eagles 7-8-1
Cowboys 7-9
Eagles 6-9-1
Giants 5-11
Wash 3-13

 
You're too high on the giants.  The only reason they won against WFT was because Rivera didn't want to tie.

 

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