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The Nick Foles era (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Jed
- Start date
cstu
Footballguy
Nick Foles had the 2nd best second half of football in history:
Age Year Lg Tm G W L T Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD1 Tom Brady 33 2010 NFL NWE 8 8 0 0 158 231 68.40 2074 22 0 128.2 8.98 10.88 13 18 1.38 12 Nick Foles 24 2013 NFL PHI 8 7 1 0 151 227 66.52 2269 21 2 126.3 10.00 11.45 48 193 4.02 23 Tony Romo 34 2014 NFL DAL 7 6 1 0 139 193 72.02 1707 19 3 125.3 8.84 10.11 12 22 1.83 04 Steve Young* 33 1994 NFL SFO 8 7 1 0 160 227 70.48 2122 20 3 123.6 9.35 10.52 33 164 4.97 45 Aaron Rodgers 26 2010 NFL GNB 7 5 2 0 147 206 71.36 1911 16 2 122.0 9.28 10.39 35 224 6.40 16 Drew Brees 32 2011 NFL NOR 8 8 0 0 226 314 71.97 2730 27 4 121.6 8.69 9.84 8 52 6.50 17 Peyton Manning 28 2004 NFL CLT 8 7 1 0 157 228 68.86 2128 23 6 121.0 9.33 10.17 10 0 0.00 08 Russell Wilson 23 2012 NFL SEA 8 7 1 0 123 183 67.21 1652 16 2 120.3 9.03 10.28 58 361 6.22 49 Chris Chandler 33 1998 NFL ATL 7 7 0 0 98 148 66.22 1616 13 5 118.0 10.92 11.16 23 82 3.57 110 Philip Rivers 27 2009 NFL SDG 8 8 0 0 151 212 71.23 2009 14 3 117.0 9.48 10.16 11 3 0.27 011 Johnny Unitas* 30 1963 NFL CLT 6 5 1 0 113 177 63.84 1883 13 3 117.0 10.64 11.34 22 128 5.82 012 Joe Montana* 33 1989 NFL SFO 7 6 1 0 144 201 71.64 1898 15 5 115.6 9.44 9.82 24 91 3.79 213 R. Staubach* 29 1971 NFL DAL 6 6 0 0 63 108 58.33 1050 9 1 115.1 9.72 10.97 20 201 10.05 114 Aaron Rodgers 27 2011 NFL GNB 7 6 1 0 151 237 63.71 2024 21 3 115.0 8.54 9.74 23 130 5.65 115 Tony Romo 31 2011 NFL DAL 8 4 4 0 169 239 70.71 1946 18 3 114.8 8.14 9.08 12 -1 -0.08 116 Brett Favre 26 1995 NFL GNB 8 6 2 0 183 266 68.80 2223 21 4 114.3 8.36 9.26 19 57 3.00 117 Steve Young* 32 1993 NFL SFO 8 5 3 0 147 217 67.74 2122 18 7 113.5 9.78 9.99 25 142 5.68 218 Drew Brees 30 2009 NFL NOR 7 5 2 0 182 249 73.09 2052 17 4 113.4 8.24 8.88 5 5 1.00 019 Donovan McNabb 27 2004 NFL PHI 7 6 1 0 127 199 63.82 1794 17 4 112.9 9.02 9.82 17 114 6.71 120 Y.A. Tittle* 35 1961 NFL NYG 6 4 1 1 84 131 64.12 1264 8 1 112.9 9.65 10.53 14 44 3.14 2Foles and Wilson were the only ones who were in the top 20 all-time in QB rating under age 26.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1960&year_max=2015&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&game_type=R&league_id=&team_id=&opp_id=&game_num_min=9&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&stadium_id=&game_day_of_week=&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&handedness=&is_active=&is_hof=&c1stat=pass_att&c1comp=gt&c1val=100&c2stat=rush_att&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5comp=&c5gtlt=lt&c6mult=1.0&c6comp=&order_by=pass_rating
Age Year Lg Tm G W L T Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD1 Tom Brady 33 2010 NFL NWE 8 8 0 0 158 231 68.40 2074 22 0 128.2 8.98 10.88 13 18 1.38 12 Nick Foles 24 2013 NFL PHI 8 7 1 0 151 227 66.52 2269 21 2 126.3 10.00 11.45 48 193 4.02 23 Tony Romo 34 2014 NFL DAL 7 6 1 0 139 193 72.02 1707 19 3 125.3 8.84 10.11 12 22 1.83 04 Steve Young* 33 1994 NFL SFO 8 7 1 0 160 227 70.48 2122 20 3 123.6 9.35 10.52 33 164 4.97 45 Aaron Rodgers 26 2010 NFL GNB 7 5 2 0 147 206 71.36 1911 16 2 122.0 9.28 10.39 35 224 6.40 16 Drew Brees 32 2011 NFL NOR 8 8 0 0 226 314 71.97 2730 27 4 121.6 8.69 9.84 8 52 6.50 17 Peyton Manning 28 2004 NFL CLT 8 7 1 0 157 228 68.86 2128 23 6 121.0 9.33 10.17 10 0 0.00 08 Russell Wilson 23 2012 NFL SEA 8 7 1 0 123 183 67.21 1652 16 2 120.3 9.03 10.28 58 361 6.22 49 Chris Chandler 33 1998 NFL ATL 7 7 0 0 98 148 66.22 1616 13 5 118.0 10.92 11.16 23 82 3.57 110 Philip Rivers 27 2009 NFL SDG 8 8 0 0 151 212 71.23 2009 14 3 117.0 9.48 10.16 11 3 0.27 011 Johnny Unitas* 30 1963 NFL CLT 6 5 1 0 113 177 63.84 1883 13 3 117.0 10.64 11.34 22 128 5.82 012 Joe Montana* 33 1989 NFL SFO 7 6 1 0 144 201 71.64 1898 15 5 115.6 9.44 9.82 24 91 3.79 213 R. Staubach* 29 1971 NFL DAL 6 6 0 0 63 108 58.33 1050 9 1 115.1 9.72 10.97 20 201 10.05 114 Aaron Rodgers 27 2011 NFL GNB 7 6 1 0 151 237 63.71 2024 21 3 115.0 8.54 9.74 23 130 5.65 115 Tony Romo 31 2011 NFL DAL 8 4 4 0 169 239 70.71 1946 18 3 114.8 8.14 9.08 12 -1 -0.08 116 Brett Favre 26 1995 NFL GNB 8 6 2 0 183 266 68.80 2223 21 4 114.3 8.36 9.26 19 57 3.00 117 Steve Young* 32 1993 NFL SFO 8 5 3 0 147 217 67.74 2122 18 7 113.5 9.78 9.99 25 142 5.68 218 Drew Brees 30 2009 NFL NOR 7 5 2 0 182 249 73.09 2052 17 4 113.4 8.24 8.88 5 5 1.00 019 Donovan McNabb 27 2004 NFL PHI 7 6 1 0 127 199 63.82 1794 17 4 112.9 9.02 9.82 17 114 6.71 120 Y.A. Tittle* 35 1961 NFL NYG 6 4 1 1 84 131 64.12 1264 8 1 112.9 9.65 10.53 14 44 3.14 2Foles and Wilson were the only ones who were in the top 20 all-time in QB rating under age 26.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1960&year_max=2015&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&game_type=R&league_id=&team_id=&opp_id=&game_num_min=9&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&stadium_id=&game_day_of_week=&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&handedness=&is_active=&is_hof=&c1stat=pass_att&c1comp=gt&c1val=100&c2stat=rush_att&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5comp=&c5gtlt=lt&c6mult=1.0&c6comp=&order_by=pass_rating
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ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Foles still has the higher comp%, TD%, QB rate and AY/A while having a lower int% than Luck for their career. 14-4 winning record the past two season. I know he won't have the luxury of playing Jax and Tenn 4x a year to pat his FF stats or the volume of plays playing for Chip, but cheer up.Yep. There was so much hope for him. I remember the Luck vs. Foles thread and it makes me sad.cstu said:
Kenny Britt, Jared Cook: Rams WRs 'love' Nick Foles
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000495872/article/kenny-britt-jared-cook-rams-wrs-love-nick-foles
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000495872/article/kenny-britt-jared-cook-rams-wrs-love-nick-foles
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Dude's getting no respect right now. Looking for him to exceed expectations in 2015.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Fine with him as a QB2 with top 10 potential, but I don't see him cracking the top-5 without the volume of plays ran in philly. Eventually, I think he settles there, just not now. The Rams also constructed a team that wants to run the ball and play defense. Foles would have to be really efficient to have huge FF upside here.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
The Rams could be hurt if they wait, he plays more like 2013, and his price goes through the roof. Of course, it is very possible that was a career TD/INT ratio which he never comes close to again (it was an outlier, NFL record-type season). The Rams scheme is expected to be a lot different than Kelly's in PHI, which could present another obstacle (besides regression to the mean) to approximating those kinds of passing numbers. Conversely, the Rams could also be hurt if they sign him to a better than average deal, and he looks more like the 2014 than 2013 version
OTOH, Foles could be hurt if he sells himself short, settles for an intermediate deal and plays more like he did in 2013. But he could also be hurt if he bets on himself, doesn't settle for an average or lesser deal, and plays more like he did in 2014.
Kind of a thorny problem for both sides, as Foles doesn't have a lot of experience, and his body of work has two very different seasons and outcomes (though it sounds like there were some mitigating circumstances last year, due to OL injury-related turnover and churning). Maybe it recommends a compromise between both sides? Foles has the leverage to not sign and he is a free agent in 2016. The Rams have the leverage of being able to use the franchise tag next year (but that would be expensive), and also of course, they could avoid that by signing him to a long term deal, once he is a bit more established and proven than currently. True, he would cost more, but than he would have demonstrated to the Rams he was worth it in a stronger way than he possibly could at present. Maybe they will end up waiting, unless they can sign him to a somewhat team friendly deal.
Again, maybe Foles will prefer a compromise, intermediate deal, which won't pay what he could max out with if he plays more like 2013, but will provide more financial security and risk avoidance than waiting, if he plays more like 2014.
OTOH, Foles could be hurt if he sells himself short, settles for an intermediate deal and plays more like he did in 2013. But he could also be hurt if he bets on himself, doesn't settle for an average or lesser deal, and plays more like he did in 2014.
Kind of a thorny problem for both sides, as Foles doesn't have a lot of experience, and his body of work has two very different seasons and outcomes (though it sounds like there were some mitigating circumstances last year, due to OL injury-related turnover and churning). Maybe it recommends a compromise between both sides? Foles has the leverage to not sign and he is a free agent in 2016. The Rams have the leverage of being able to use the franchise tag next year (but that would be expensive), and also of course, they could avoid that by signing him to a long term deal, once he is a bit more established and proven than currently. True, he would cost more, but than he would have demonstrated to the Rams he was worth it in a stronger way than he possibly could at present. Maybe they will end up waiting, unless they can sign him to a somewhat team friendly deal.
Again, maybe Foles will prefer a compromise, intermediate deal, which won't pay what he could max out with if he plays more like 2013, but will provide more financial security and risk avoidance than waiting, if he plays more like 2014.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
IMO that will be completely irrelevant to Foles contract, if he agrees to terms with the Rams.
Maybe he gets dinged if he doesn't light it up with better WRs than the Packers?
* Foles had a QB rating of 79.1 in 2014, with a 6/5 TD/INT ratio, so technically he set the bar lower last year. Clearly Kelly didn't value him as much (took on the higher salary, parted with a second in 2016, etc.), and he was in as good a position as anybody to know what he had in Foles. Almost certainly multiple teams didn't value Foles as high. Didn't hear of any first round pick offers from CLE for Foles?
Maybe he gets dinged if he doesn't light it up with better WRs than the Packers?
* Foles had a QB rating of 79.1 in 2014, with a 6/5 TD/INT ratio, so technically he set the bar lower last year. Clearly Kelly didn't value him as much (took on the higher salary, parted with a second in 2016, etc.), and he was in as good a position as anybody to know what he had in Foles. Almost certainly multiple teams didn't value Foles as high. Didn't hear of any first round pick offers from CLE for Foles?
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ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Yet, he still choose Mike Vick over him to start the year before, so let's not not pretend this matters at all in regards to his talent or future contract.
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Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
He put Foles in a competition against Vick--one that Vick won. You can't start the loser of a QB competition and maintain any credibility. That goes double when it's your first year in the league.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Doesn't change the fact that he watched them both everyday in practice and thought Vick was a better QB since he "knows what he has".He said he knew Matt Barkley too *shoulder shrug*
He knows Sanchez couldn't win 1 game that mattered to get into the playoffs and resigned him to possibly be in the same position
Really.. Kelly's handling of QB's could be a fatal flaw, but it's being treated like some almighty benchmark. Foles plays for the Rams now. The Rams have been pretty savvy lately. They just never had a QB. Kelly opinion, not that it should matter in a competitive league, has nothing to do with how they value Foles. If Foles is your guy, then take care of business. F around, and you'll look stupid if he plays at an elite level or goes 11-5/12-4. He's shown he's capable of that.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Again, it was a competition. If Vick was better at the time Vick has to start. Kelly didn't just see this at that time, we all did. Foles was good that pre-season but Vick was better
Barkley was a 4th round pick for a reason. Had Kelly "known" he would have gone much earlier...
How many teams have a back-up QB that fits your Sanchez description? 30? 32?
No HC in the past 2 years has got more from less in the position than Chip has. Look at just the QB's that made the playoffs last season...where would Sanchez rank in that group? Calling it a fatal flaw is almost laughable. As much as I like Foles I see a Kevin Kolb future for him...former slightly injury prone QB of the future leaves a potent offense and goes to a team that needs a QB gets a big deal and does what? Could be wrong on Foles but I feel like I read this book before...
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Tannehill contract seems like it would be the right range based on actual accomplishments.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Foles did have a good/ great pre-season that year. I think we just remember it different is all. Vick that year was 13-15 total and one of those incompletions was a pick on what I believe was a hail mary. Foles also had a pick and a fumble I believe and didn't look as impressive as Vick did at that time.
Looking at the Barkly pick mirrors what he's doing today. He bought low (4th round pick....4th) on a guy that had potential. Many 4th round picks don't make it and some from that same draft aren't even in the league already.
You're not getting Andrew Luck as a back-up. Back-ups look like Sanchez, in fact, he may be better than 80% of the ones on teams now.
Its not saying Foles sucks it's saying that Kelly has maximized what he's had at that position. You're trying to quantify it with wins when that's a team accomplishment.
Nothing is contradicting either. You said "The handling of the QB's has been a fatal flaw" --how can that be when he's got the most out of guys many would see as ordinary? Im hoping you're not implying he should have just went and got a franchise QB as if it were easy...
As far as who bought low on who that remains to be seen. I agree with your overall point that Kelly's opinion holds no weight on Foles' future as a Ram but like Reid before him, Kelly seems to be able to make quarterbacks look a tad better than they are. Vick leaves here after being a starter and backs up Geno Smith, Sanchez gets no interest and ends up finishing with a rating over 10 points higher than his best year, Foles has a 27-2 under his belt and goes for Bradford (in your eyes a bad player) and a 5...why is that? I liked Foles....here. Outside of here I worry.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I like Tannehill and Foles. Two differences with Tannehill. He has been healthier. And he has been trending up (if Foles 2013 and 2014 seasons had been reversed, possibly he would be in a stronger bargaining position now?). Do you pay Foles based on his 2013 play? 2014? Somewhere in between? If the latter, down the middle, or closer to 2013 or 2014? Lot of possibilities.I haven't heard any preliminary figures. My conjecture is if Foles is looking for $20 million per year, that might be too rich for the Rams, and they wait and see what he does this year. Whereas $15 million is probably too low a floor for Foles. So maybe in the $17-18 range? If appreciably lower, maybe he prefers to bet on himself and stand to cash in in 2016 free agency, or make franchise tag money (good work for a QB if you can get it), or more likely, he signs a better long term deal with the Rams based on improved leverage THEN, if he plays well.
I just looked up Tannehill. They said in new money terms he is averaging $19 million per year, which was around seventh among QBs (or maybe eighth after Newton), but that in actual money, it was worth $16 million, which would be around 14th with Dalton.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I was talking about a few things, but that may not have been clear.ShaHBucks said:
1 - I wouldn't expect Bradford's contract to have anything to do with Foles (no need to spend a lot of time on this, I didn't take the initial prompting comment as a serious attempt to describe a likely contract parameter starting point for Foles). He was the last pre-current labor contract bonus baby. Foles will get slotted by his comps and precedents, though as noted, he presents some challenges.
2 - The business about Kelly was indirectly referring to Bradford's contract status with PHI, not Foles with the Rams. Clearly Kelly valued Bradford more (probably CLE, too). So that could position him to make more money in PHI than Kelly might have been willing to pay Foles, if hypothetically, he had kept him as the starter, instead of trading for Bradford. If both the Eagles extend Bradford and the Rams Foles before 2016, I think Bradford may receive the bigger contract.
What are your contract expectations, for Foles and Bradford?
I have no idea what Kelly intends to do, but seemingly you don't make that trade without the intent to extend or re-sign Bradford at some point, but who knows. Maybe they want to see if his ACL explodes for a third time?
For the record, I hope the Rams sign Foles. I think 2013 was an outlier, but 2014 had some mitigating circumstances. Hopefully he can play a lot better than last year for the Rams, if not up to the 2013 heights. Stability (and related health) at the QB position has been the biggest obstacle to taking the next step for the Rams in recent years. This is the most talented roster in the Fisher/Snead era, by far, imo. If Foles is the real deal, than adding him on a long term basis couldn't come at a more perfect time to begin making a serious playoff push.
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Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I don't think that looking at the average is a very good way to look at it. He makes $4.8 million this year, and 11.6 next year. Then his dead cap money for 2017-2020 goes down each year from 6.9 to 4.6 to 2.3 to 0. Plus the Dolphins can opt out after 2016.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Dalton is similar, with way less guaranteed money.
edit: great, now you've got me in the weeds on spotrac and I'll probably end up with a premium membership before the night is over.
edit: great, now you've got me in the weeds on spotrac and I'll probably end up with a premium membership before the night is over.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
After years of being saddled with Bradford's contract, I'm shocked the Rams are interested in talking extension before seeing Foles play for them. Especially with all the cheap great defensive draft picks they stacked their roster with from the Griffin trade approaching contract extension time.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Hey Larry, below was the first article I found, that is what I was going by. But I realize contracts are complex, and can be parsed different ways. What figure did you have in mind for Tannehill's yearly average (and by implication, Foles)? I am aware that some of the recent deals are basically a gussied up series of one year deals. Kaepernick. Even Newton was I think widely reported as $61 million guaranteed, but really $31 million (less guaranteed money for skill than injury). Technically, I think CAR could cut him in 2016, not that it will happen. Another factor, contracts could be structured differently, so salary cap implications could be more or less onerous if players are cut before the end of the contract (which might than discourage that). I think the Rams contract writer Demoff prefers to not mortgage the future by excessively backloading many contracts. BTW, Over the Cap is another good site for salary cap info, though not sure if they have a lot of articles.
http://www.thephinsider.com/2015/6/4/8728969/cam-newton-contract-versus-ryan-tannehill-contract
"The deal averages pay for Tannehill at $19.25 million per season in new money, or $16 million in actual per season average. The $19.25 million made Tannehill the 7th highest paid quarterback in the league, while the $16 million average tied him with Andy Dalton for 14th in the league."
cstu
Footballguy
The way I look at contracts is the earliest the team can get out of it without a huge cap hit.
In Tannehill's case he has the following guaranteed:
- $11.5m signing bonus
- $10m in salary from 2015-2016
Over the next 2 years the Dolphins will pay him $21.5m, with $6.9m in dead money from his pro-rated signing bonus if he's cut/traded.
His 2017 salary isn't guaranteed until the 5th day of the league year in 2017 so his deal is really 2 years/$21m.
In Tannehill's case he has the following guaranteed:
- $11.5m signing bonus
- $10m in salary from 2015-2016
Over the next 2 years the Dolphins will pay him $21.5m, with $6.9m in dead money from his pro-rated signing bonus if he's cut/traded.
His 2017 salary isn't guaranteed until the 5th day of the league year in 2017 so his deal is really 2 years/$21m.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Think I have it, but in case the exchange is of interest to others in the thread - the $19 million and $16 million figures in the above article are averages if you divided from the total length and maxed out dollar value of the contract, which thereby inflates the stated value, relative to the actual value? And since it is essentially a two year deal, that explains the reduction.
Tannehill could be in a different position relative to Foles as far as the money over and above what he was already going to make part of the contract description. He was a former top 10 pick, Foles a third rounder.
How much are the following QBs making next year (thinking of recent QB contracts, feel free to add any oversights):
Ryan
Kaepernick
Dalton
Newton
Lastly, unless I'm missing something, I didn't see Foles settling for a $10 million per year contract, but I do see Tannehill as a potential in the ball park proxy. I was thinking more like north of $15 million but less than $20 million. But if I was operating with inflated Tannehill figures, maybe I'm off. As a Rams fan, I'd be very happy with a $10 million per year contract, it just somehow doesn't look right to me, too low. On the upper bound or range for recent QB second contracts, I have been thinking of Newton in about $20 million a year terms, Wilson wanting between $20-25 million (Luck may command $25 million by 2016?), but maybe those are similarly inflated terms when broken down differently. Reportedly structure and especially regarding guaranteed money could be tricky matters with Wilson's negotiations.
Tannehill could be in a different position relative to Foles as far as the money over and above what he was already going to make part of the contract description. He was a former top 10 pick, Foles a third rounder.
How much are the following QBs making next year (thinking of recent QB contracts, feel free to add any oversights):
Ryan
Kaepernick
Dalton
Newton
Lastly, unless I'm missing something, I didn't see Foles settling for a $10 million per year contract, but I do see Tannehill as a potential in the ball park proxy. I was thinking more like north of $15 million but less than $20 million. But if I was operating with inflated Tannehill figures, maybe I'm off. As a Rams fan, I'd be very happy with a $10 million per year contract, it just somehow doesn't look right to me, too low. On the upper bound or range for recent QB second contracts, I have been thinking of Newton in about $20 million a year terms, Wilson wanting between $20-25 million (Luck may command $25 million by 2016?), but maybe those are similarly inflated terms when broken down differently. Reportedly structure and especially regarding guaranteed money could be tricky matters with Wilson's negotiations.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
They really need a QB, though. If they are believers (they did do the trade, so it wasn't completely random or accidental), the advantage to getting something done now, especially if on semi team-friendly terms, if he lights it up in 2015, he just gets more expensive (I understand your perspective, too).
Demoff has done a good job with the cap. DE Chris Long makes a lot of money (second after Quinn, I think $12 milllion to $14 million in 2016?). If he doesn't play better than last year, he could be vulnerable to at least some form of restructure.
Upcoming 2016 contracts. The 2012 class is coming up, plus various free agents:
Offense (pretty much Foles and Quick)
Foles
Not sure about Cook, but Kendricks re-signed, the OL is pretty locked up (Saffold re-upped in 2014)
Quick and Givens come up in 2016. This is an important year for Quick, he did break out last year. If he sustains the momentum built from last year, I hope they can work something out. Givens almost certainly a goner after this season. Britt is on a two year deal just signed that could be a one year deal.
Defense (Brockers could wait until 2017, DL depth, probably one starting CB, likely Jenkins, not sure about Barron or McLeod - maybe Jenkins only priority signing here, if they wait on Brockers due to fifth year option in 2016, maybe Fairley or Barron?)
The Rams exercised the fifth year option on Brockers, so they have him through 2016 if they want (offer can be pulled by the rules), or negotiate an extension between now and then. They did not exercise the option for Mark Barron (traded a 4th and 6th for him in 2014). Brockers is an important part of the defense, hope they re-sign him. Not sure about Barron, he doesn't start, but plays a lot and is a key part of the big nickel. Don't know if they want to play him like a starter, and if not, he may want to explore options in 2016 free agency.
Key rotational/depth DEs Williams Hayes and Eugene Sims are in contract years. Rotational DT Fairley is on a one year deal, I think worth up to $5 million with incentives. Hard to tell if they will want to re-sign him, if they will be able to if he does well (may price himself out of their budget?), is he is just a one year luxury rental. I would like to see them keep him as well if there aren't weight fluctuation, effort and health issues, but not over Brockers, if it comes to that.
At LB, Ayers just signed a two year deal.
At CB, 2012 2nd and 3rd rounders Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson are in contract years. ESPN beat reporter Nick Wagoner (my main source of Rams news, Jim Thomas to a lesser extent) thinks they will prioritize Jenkins and not Johnson, who lost his job to 2014 6th rounder E.J. Gaines (I think top 5 in league performance-based pay, not among rookies, but period, FS Rodney McLeod was around top 15).
At S, Barron already addressed above, McLeod is in a contract year, but has been year to year for a few seasons, they surprised some by using the second round tender on him (equating to about a $2.4 million contract?). He did play better in 2014 than 2013, is a big hitter, gets lost and gives up big plays at times, not an outstanding coverage DB for a FS, not a blue chip, elite talent. T.J. McDonald is a becoming a very good SS (father Tim a serial Pro Bowler with ARI/SF), so if they go in another direction from McLeod, like the 2016 draft, they seemingly need a FS to complement him. This dynamic made the drafting of Maurice Alexander in the fourth round, and the acquisition of Barron by trade last year, both SS-types like McDonald, somewhat puzzling, headscratcher moves. Though they are making good use of Barron in the big nickel, who basically plays LB in passing situations, and is on the field with McDonald and McLeod. It will be interesting to see if Ayers or Barron play more in nickel in 2015. You could make a strong case that Ogletree and Ayers are the Rams two most athletic LBs, and they could have Ayers and Barron on the field together, but they haven't pulled Laurinaitis in the nickel previously (he is great at making the calls and pre-snap reads, keys, adjustments, getting the players lined up). Ogletree is the dime LB.
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cstu
Footballguy
If Foles does decent this year they'll sign him to a contract similar to what Tannehill got that's inflated on paper to make him look good. I think he'd need a repeat of 2013 (or relatively close to it) to get into the $15m (in real guaranteed money) range.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Yes, to the first part. In the NFL, it almost never makes sense to worry about the full possible value of a contract, because it will almost never be paid (unless you are trying to kill Shick. Then talk about that, in-depth analysis of the 1962 championship game, and grade everyone's 2015 draft right now).
As for comparing contracts, go here: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/
For 2015
Ryan - $17.5
Kaepernick - $15.2
Dalton - $9.6
Newton - $19.5
Alex Smith - $15.6
Cutler - $16.5
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Interesting. So on the basis of the which monster doesn't belong pattern recognition game, five of the names in this group range from $15 million to $20 million. Dalton stands out as the only one of the group under $10 million.
And to that, we could add Tannehill from above at $10 million.
ZWK
Footballguy
Cap hit is misleading.Long Ball Larry said:
Dalton was already under contract for 2014, and they signed him to a "6 year, $96M" extension for 2015-2020.
If he plays out the entire contract, he'll get $16M/yr in new money for the 6 new years (in addition to the tiny contract he was on for 2014). If they cut him after 4 years, he'll average $15.5M/yr in new money for those 4 new years. If they cut him after this year, he will have received $24.2M in new money for a 1 year extension. If they cut him at some other time, he'll average somewhere in between $15.6M/yr and $17.5M/yr.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
The $15 million to $17 million number is more in line with what I thought (or expectation I had based on what I heard/read earlier).
Which reminds me, on some players, like Cam Newton, for instance, if we are pretty sure they aren't going ot be cut in a year or two, than looking at the contract further out COULD be more realistic. With QBs that are young, seemingly in a teams good graces, relatively established, consistent, that is the kind of player that could see the contract until the end (Dalton does seem more vulnerable if he can't get over the playoff hump at some point). Barring a catastrophic injury or unanticipated regression (suspension, something off field?), hard to see him not being on the team in 3-4 years. Anything could happen in theory, he could be on thin ice if they go 0-32, 0-48 next 2-3 seasons and really stinks up the place, looks personally responsilbe, but that isn't very likely.
Which reminds me, on some players, like Cam Newton, for instance, if we are pretty sure they aren't going ot be cut in a year or two, than looking at the contract further out COULD be more realistic. With QBs that are young, seemingly in a teams good graces, relatively established, consistent, that is the kind of player that could see the contract until the end (Dalton does seem more vulnerable if he can't get over the playoff hump at some point). Barring a catastrophic injury or unanticipated regression (suspension, something off field?), hard to see him not being on the team in 3-4 years. Anything could happen in theory, he could be on thin ice if they go 0-32, 0-48 next 2-3 seasons and really stinks up the place, looks personally responsilbe, but that isn't very likely.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Britt and Bailey both available. Either have any fantasy upside with Foles?
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Britt is a starter. Bailey might not be if Quick returns to form. In dynasty, if Quick isn't retained (and even Britt not assured of returning based on contract structure), Bailey could start in 2016 if not sooner. Britt is only 27 in 2015, Fisher seems to like him, he looked good last season, he would be my choice if both available.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I'll be hipness, I thought Britt was going to be out of the nfl by now. He's still kicking.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
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