The key to me is Big Ben is struggling again. He did not look good in the regular season finale and hasn't had a really great day in many games. Pair that fact with he is going up against a defense that picked off QBs a whopping 31 times in 2005. The last time these two met, Ben threw 3 INTs. I expect more of the same. Bengals win.
Roethlisberger had a below average day in the season finale, but only threw 16 passes. He was very solid in the 3 wins that preceded it. In those 3 games, he completed 66% of his passes for 548 yards and had 3 TD (1 rush) and 0 INTs with a QB rating of 109.3 and a yards-per-attempt of 10.0. You can't say a QB is "struggling" because of one game - I'm sure you remember Palmer's 13-27 93 yard performance against Cleveland a few weeks ago.The reason Roethlisberger threw 3 INTs last time out is because the Bengals were in front most of the game, and Roethlisberger was throwing an inordinately high number of passes against an opportunistic defense that was sitting back waiting on the pass. He threw 41 passes in that game, his high the rest of the year was 28. The key is not that "Roethlisberger is struggling." The key is the ability of the Steeler defense to get stops early and/or create turnovers, allowing the Steelers to get in front and control the game on the ground. If they can do that, they win. If the defense is porous and the Steelers are forced to play catch-up again and throw 25 times in the second half, you'll likely see the turnovers come as a result.
I'm not worried about Ben - if the Steelers defense and special teams play the way they should, Ben won't be throwing into double and triple coverage the entire second half.
I don't think the Steelers will be able to stop the Bengal offense consistently enough to not, at some point, be forced into opening up their own offense. And that is where I believe they lose the game as Ben will throw too many INTs.
Ok, that's an analysis - not simply saying "Roethlisberger is struggling" based on one game and then making the observation that he threw 3 INTs last time out against Cincinnati and just assuming that will continue.Personally, I think we're going to see a hybrid of the two games that were played this year. I don't think it'll be a shootout like the game at Heinz, nor do I think we'll see the Steelers dominate the way they did at Cincinnati. I think it will be a close game throughout, but I doubt the Steelers will fumble 4 times (losing 1) and throw 3 INTs again. Cincinnati won the turnover battle in that game 4-0 (and had a turnover of their own wiped out by what proved on replay to be a bad call) AND got a 94-yard kick return from Tab Perry and still needed a stop late in the game to preserve a 7-point win. I think the Steelers will be more patient offensively, even if they fall behind. I also don't think Cincinnati will put up 38 points again. The Bengals had scoring drives of 53, 51, 49,
22, and
3 yards in the last game. Without the repeated turnovers, they don't score more than 24 points, which is about where I think they'll fall this week. Steelers have scored 27 and 31 in two games against Cincinnati this year without the benefit of a ton of turnovers, and I think they'll be in that range again. Steelers run more, play the field position game better, don't turn the ball over as much, they will win.
Pittsburgh 27
Cincinnati 24