The Patriots' Decision to Go for it on 4th Down in the 3rd Quarter (1 Viewer)

[Buckfast]

What do you guys think about the decision to go for it on 4th and 13 in the 3rd quarter rather than attempt a 48 yard field goal?

I don't understand the logic behind the decision. Do the Patriots really have that little confidence in Gostkowski? I realize that his long on the season is 45, but he's hardly had a chance to hit anything longer, as he had no attempts over 50 yards this season. Gostkowski certainly has the leg strength to hit a 48 yarder in ideal conditions.

Is this an example of Belichick's hubris and overconfidence ultimately bringing down the Pats? It seems like the mid-percentage chance of converting a 48 yard field goal to go up by 7 points would be much more appealing than the low percentage chance of converting a 4th and 13 situation while risking coming away with nothing.

In the end, that was the difference of the game.

 

[Raider Nation]

Honestly? I was shocked not to see him trot the kicker out there.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Thought it was awful at the time - did not understand it at all given that they were in a dome. 48 on grass is tough (ask Scott Norwood) but you had think Vinatieri called Peyton to chuckle about that one tonight

-QG

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Very Marty Schottenheimer of him.

 

[Darth Cheney]

The height of arrogance.... good thing it cost them.

 

[hitmenssharpshooters]

The height of arrogance.... good thing it cost them.

Arrogance

 

[Das Boot]

Is this an example of Belicheck's hubris and overconfidence ultimately bringing down the Pats?

You answered your own question quite well.

 

[Jimmy James]

I love that this Patriots team lost its shot at history and its ticket to enter into discussion of best team ever because BB's ego was so big it cut the oxygen supply to his head and led to him going for it on 4th and 13. That's the most super special part of it all if you ask me.

 

[beavers]

The height of arrogance.... good thing it cost them.

Arrogance

Agreed 100%. It's worked for them all season so why change in the SB?

 

[smcindoe]

You can't criticize Belichik after the year he just had. Only the second coach in history to never be on the sidelines to see his team lose a game.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Bad call. Arrogance.

 

[HellToupee]

with how the O was playing and how the o-line was protecting Brady I was shocked he went on 4-13 , 4-5 makes sense but 4-13 was crazy

 

[Darth Cheney]

The height of arrogance.... good thing it cost them.

Arrogance

Agreed 100%. It's worked for them all season so why change in the SB?

good thing that they thought this game was nothing more than a regular game.

 

[Bri]

did that a number of times the last 2 years

the lack of confidence in Gostkowski, as a rook initially, forced them to work on 4th and long plays and they got good at it.

Clearly not tonight but it usually works well for them

Also, Feagles=gem, Pats punter gave it to them at the 20.

 

[BILLY_THE_BULL]

You can't criticize Belichik after the year he just had. Only the second coach in history to never be on the sidelines to see his team lose a game.

You mean you cant criticize the only coach to ever win 18 games(the other 3 won the Super Bowl) and not win the Super Bowl?

 

[monessen]

Gostowski is not the guy he replaced and Belichick knows his kicker's range and whether Steve G would 've handled a long, pressure kick properly. Besides, the Pats have been aggressive all year. Why change?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Gostowski is not the guy he replaced and Belichick knows his kicker's range and whether Steve G would 've handled a long, pressure kick properly. Besides, the Pats have been aggressive all year. Why change?

Have they been that aggressive?

 

[Das Boot]

You can't criticize Belichik after the year he just had. Only the second coach in history to never be on the sidelines to see his team lose a game.

You mean you cant criticize the only coach to ever win 18 games(the other 3 won the Super Bowl) and not win the Super Bowl?

New addition to sig.

 

[scott72]

Gostowski is not the guy he replaced and Belichick knows his kicker's range and whether Steve G would 've handled a long, pressure kick properly. Besides, the Pats have been aggressive all year. Why change?

That wasn't aggressive, that was stupid. 4th and 3 or 4 yeah, but 4th and 13? Horrible call there and it cost them..

 

[weasel3515]

The height of arrogance.... good thing it cost them.

Arrogance

Agreed 100%. It's worked for them all season so why change in the SB?

good thing that they thought this game was nothing more than a regular game.

Priceless!! Good post!!!!

 

[monessen]

Gostowski is not the guy he replaced and Belichick knows his kicker's range and whether Steve G would 've handled a long, pressure kick properly. Besides, the Pats have been aggressive all year. Why change?

That wasn't aggressive, that was stupid. 4th and 3 or 4 yeah, but 4th and 13? Horrible call there and it cost them..

I guess we know a lot more than Belichick. Lots of possibilities: a penalty against NY in that situation, a blocked kick, something the coaching staff saw or knew (on tape maybe). Brady has a great receiving corps. Am not a Pats fan but had Gostowski on my fantasy team and his forte was extra points.

 

[HellToupee]

Gostowski is not the guy he replaced and Belichick knows his kicker's range and whether Steve G would 've handled a long, pressure kick properly. Besides, the Pats have been aggressive all year. Why change?

That wasn't aggressive, that was stupid. 4th and 3 or 4 yeah, but 4th and 13? Horrible call there and it cost them..

I guess we know a lot more than Belichick. Am not a Pats fan but had Gostowski on my fantasy team and his forte was extra points.

 

[Tau837]

did that a number of times the last 2 yearsthe lack of confidence in Gostkowski, as a rook initially, forced them to work on 4th and long plays and they got good at it.Clearly not tonight but it usually works well for themAlso, Feagles=gem, Pats punter gave it to them at the 20.

Actually, I don't think so. I would have to assume that Brady is passing on every 4th & long, so I looked at his splits (at ESPN) for the past two seasons. In 2006, Brady didn't attempt a 4th down pass with more than 5 yards to go, and he was 4/4 for 48 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3-5 yards to go. In 2007, Brady was 1/3 for 6 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3 or more yards to go.So, Brady was extremely successful on 4th down in 2006, and not so much in 2007. But as far as I can tell, he never even attempted a 4th & 8 or more, much less converted one.

 

[monessen]

Gostowski is not the guy he replaced and Belichick knows his kicker's range and whether Steve G would 've handled a long, pressure kick properly. Besides, the Pats have been aggressive all year. Why change?

That wasn't aggressive, that was stupid. 4th and 3 or 4 yeah, but 4th and 13? Horrible call there and it cost them..

I guess we know a lot more than Belichick. Am not a Pats fan but had Gostowski on my fantasy team and his forte was extra points.

What was unclear? The sardonic part about us knowing more about Gostowski and strategy than Belichick or that I had the Pats kicker on my fantasy team and long field goals were not his strong suit?

 

[HellToupee]

did that a number of times the last 2 yearsthe lack of confidence in Gostkowski, as a rook initially, forced them to work on 4th and long plays and they got good at it.Clearly not tonight but it usually works well for themAlso, Feagles=gem, Pats punter gave it to them at the 20.

Actually, I don't think so. I would have to assume that Brady is passing on every 4th & long, so I looked at his splits (at ESPN) for the past two seasons. In 2006, Brady didn't attempt a 4th down pass with more than 5 yards to go, and he was 4/4 for 48 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3-5 yards to go. In 2007, Brady was 1/3 for 6 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3 or more yards to go.So, Brady was extremely successful on 4th down in 2006, and not so much in 2007. But as far as I can tell, he never even attempted a 4th & 8 or more, much less converted one.

 

[Kai's Hero]

I love that this Patriots team lost its shot at history and its ticket to enter into discussion of best team ever because BB's ego was so big it cut the oxygen supply to his head and led to him going for it on 4th and 13. That's the most super special part of it all if you ask me.

Regardless of the outcome of the Super Bowl what this Patriot team did this year is deserving of being in the discussion of one of the best teams in NFL history.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I love that this Patriots team lost its shot at history and its ticket to enter into discussion of best team ever because BB's ego was so big it cut the oxygen supply to his head and led to him going for it on 4th and 13. That's the most super special part of it all if you ask me.

Regardless of the outcome of the Super Bowl what this Patriot team did this year is deserving of being in the discussion of one of the best teams in NFL history.

List of best teams in history that include teams that lost the Super Bowl?

 

[HellToupee]

Gostowski is not the guy he replaced and Belichick knows his kicker's range and whether Steve G would 've handled a long, pressure kick properly. Besides, the Pats have been aggressive all year. Why change?

That wasn't aggressive, that was stupid. 4th and 3 or 4 yeah, but 4th and 13? Horrible call there and it cost them..

I guess we know a lot more than Belichick. Am not a Pats fan but had Gostowski on my fantasy team and his forte was extra points.

What was unclear? The sardonic part about us knowing more about Gostowski and strategy than Belichick or that I had the Pats kicker on my fantasy team and long field goals were not his strong suit?

I'll take his two year #s of from 40-49 of 5 -9 55.6% over a much lower % of 4th & 13. Especially the way the line was protecting .

 

[monessen]

Didn't Gostowski miss a chip shot in the playoffs? Do we know if he's 100%? Admittedly, 4th & 13 is a huge gamble, but didn't Brady break a buncha records throwing the ball? He may have been trying to pull NY offsides for a closer kick. Take it up with Coach Bill who is probably not the guy you'd want to be spending tonight with. Chris Myers probably saved his own life tonight by not pursuing that line of questioning with BB.

 

[Jimmy James]

I love that this Patriots team lost its shot at history and its ticket to enter into discussion of best team ever because BB's ego was so big it cut the oxygen supply to his head and led to him going for it on 4th and 13. That's the most super special part of it all if you ask me.

Regardless of the outcome of the Super Bowl what this Patriot team did this year is deserving of being in the discussion of one of the best teams in NFL history.

Yeah, you go right on believing it. I'm sure you also put the 1986 Red Sox right up there in baseball.The first criteria for best team ever is a Super Bowl victory. Not even the commissioner sweeping this loss under the rug would change that.

 

[HellToupee]

I love that this Patriots team lost its shot at history and its ticket to enter into discussion of best team ever because BB's ego was so big it cut the oxygen supply to his head and led to him going for it on 4th and 13. That's the most super special part of it all if you ask me.

Regardless of the outcome of the Super Bowl what this Patriot team did this year is deserving of being in the discussion of one of the best teams in NFL history.

The first criteria for best team ever is a Super Bowl victory.

this loss negates everthing

 

[Bri]

did that a number of times the last 2 yearsthe lack of confidence in Gostkowski, as a rook initially, forced them to work on 4th and long plays and they got good at it.Clearly not tonight but it usually works well for themAlso, Feagles=gem, Pats punter gave it to them at the 20.

Actually, I don't think so. I would have to assume that Brady is passing on every 4th & long, so I looked at his splits (at ESPN) for the past two seasons. In 2006, Brady didn't attempt a 4th down pass with more than 5 yards to go, and he was 4/4 for 48 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3-5 yards to go. In 2007, Brady was 1/3 for 6 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3 or more yards to go.So, Brady was extremely successful on 4th down in 2006, and not so much in 2007. But as far as I can tell, he never even attempted a 4th & 8 or more, much less converted one.

Pats were 15 of 21, 71% on 4th down in 0716 of 20, 80% in 06ETA I see it's "4th and long" you're onto. Long day sorry. I should have said they had to work on 4th downs left out the yardage

 

[HellToupee]

did that a number of times the last 2 yearsthe lack of confidence in Gostkowski, as a rook initially, forced them to work on 4th and long plays and they got good at it.Clearly not tonight but it usually works well for themAlso, Feagles=gem, Pats punter gave it to them at the 20.

Actually, I don't think so. I would have to assume that Brady is passing on every 4th & long, so I looked at his splits (at ESPN) for the past two seasons. In 2006, Brady didn't attempt a 4th down pass with more than 5 yards to go, and he was 4/4 for 48 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3-5 yards to go. In 2007, Brady was 1/3 for 6 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3 or more yards to go.So, Brady was extremely successful on 4th down in 2006, and not so much in 2007. But as far as I can tell, he never even attempted a 4th & 8 or more, much less converted one.

Pats were 15 of 21, 71% on 4th down in 0716 of 20, 80% in 06

they were 0% on 4th & 13

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I love that this Patriots team lost its shot at history and its ticket to enter into discussion of best team ever because BB's ego was so big it cut the oxygen supply to his head and led to him going for it on 4th and 13. That's the most super special part of it all if you ask me.

Regardless of the outcome of the Super Bowl what this Patriot team did this year is deserving of being in the discussion of one of the best teams in NFL history.

The first criteria for best team ever is a Super Bowl victory.

this loss negates everthing

I'm glad the Pats lost, but I have to disagree. They set points records and TD passing and receiving records. They won all their regular season games. I don't think a loss "negates everything." It means we can say they're not the best team ever and have something to back it up-- but they're definitely in the discussion, and without question one of the best teams ever. They lost, I'm glad they lost and they deserved to lose. But the loss can't negate everything.

 

[Bri]

did that a number of times the last 2 years

the lack of confidence in Gostkowski, as a rook initially, forced them to work on 4th and long plays and they got good at it.

Clearly not tonight but it usually works well for them

Also, Feagles=gem, Pats punter gave it to them at the 20.

Actually, I don't think so. I would have to assume that Brady is passing on every 4th & long, so I looked at his splits (at ESPN) for the past two seasons. In 2006, Brady didn't attempt a 4th down pass with more than 5 yards to go, and he was 4/4 for 48 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3-5 yards to go. In 2007, Brady was 1/3 for 6 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3 or more yards to go.So, Brady was extremely successful on 4th down in 2006, and not so much in 2007. But as far as I can tell, he never even attempted a 4th & 8 or more, much less converted one.

Pats were 15 of 21, 71% on 4th down in 0716 of 20, 80% in 06

they were 0% on 4th & 13

bolded the part you're missing, hope this helps

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

did that a number of times the last 2 yearsthe lack of confidence in Gostkowski, as a rook initially, forced them to work on 4th and long plays and they got good at it.Clearly not tonight but it usually works well for themAlso, Feagles=gem, Pats punter gave it to them at the 20.

Actually, I don't think so. I would have to assume that Brady is passing on every 4th & long, so I looked at his splits (at ESPN) for the past two seasons. In 2006, Brady didn't attempt a 4th down pass with more than 5 yards to go, and he was 4/4 for 48 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3-5 yards to go. In 2007, Brady was 1/3 for 6 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3 or more yards to go.So, Brady was extremely successful on 4th down in 2006, and not so much in 2007. But as far as I can tell, he never even attempted a 4th & 8 or more, much less converted one.

Pats were 15 of 21, 71% on 4th down in 0716 of 20, 80% in 06

they were 0% on 4th & 13

Also 0-1 in Super Bowls vs the Giants.

 

[Liquid Tension]

What do you guys think about the decision to go for it on 4th and 13 in the 3rd quarter rather than attempt a 48 yard field goal? I don't understand the logic behind the decision. Do the Patriots really have that little confidence in Gostkowski? I realize that his long on the season is 45, but he's hardly had a chance to hit anything longer, as he had no attempts over 50 yards this season. Gostkowski certainly has the leg strength to hit a 48 yarder in ideal conditions.Is this an example of Belicheck's hubris and overconfidence ultimately bringing down the Pats? It seems like the mid-percentage chance of converting a 48 yard field goal to go up by 7 points would be much more appealing than the low percentage chance of converting a 4th and 13 situation while risking coming away with nothing.In the end, that was the difference of the game.

I didn't understand that especially after not going for the 4th and 2 or 3 from the 40 something earlier?

 

[Tau837]

did that a number of times the last 2 yearsthe lack of confidence in Gostkowski, as a rook initially, forced them to work on 4th and long plays and they got good at it.Clearly not tonight but it usually works well for themAlso, Feagles=gem, Pats punter gave it to them at the 20.

Actually, I don't think so. I would have to assume that Brady is passing on every 4th & long, so I looked at his splits (at ESPN) for the past two seasons. In 2006, Brady didn't attempt a 4th down pass with more than 5 yards to go, and he was 4/4 for 48 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3-5 yards to go. In 2007, Brady was 1/3 for 6 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3 or more yards to go.So, Brady was extremely successful on 4th down in 2006, and not so much in 2007. But as far as I can tell, he never even attempted a 4th & 8 or more, much less converted one.

Pats were 15 of 21, 71% on 4th down in 0716 of 20, 80% in 06ETA I see it's "4th and long" you're onto. Long day sorry. I should have said they had to work on 4th downs left out the yardage

Right. I responded to your own 4th & long reference. And had you simply said 4th downs, I would have called you on it anyway... Bottom line is it was a bad call. Heck, a punt probably could have put them well inside the 20... gaining 20 yards on a short coffin corner punt is better than giving the ball away on a 4th & 13.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Gostowski is not the guy he replaced and Belichick knows his kicker's range and whether Steve G would 've handled a long, pressure kick properly. Besides, the Pats have been aggressive all year. Why change?

Then why not go for 4th and short earlier?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Gostowski is not the guy he replaced and Belichick knows his kicker's range and whether Steve G would 've handled a long, pressure kick properly. Besides, the Pats have been aggressive all year. Why change?

Then why not go for 4th and short earlier?

This is something I was surprised at. Bellichick was uncharacteristically conservative on 4th and short near mid-field. He's usually much more aggressive in going for those.

 

[Bri]

did that a number of times the last 2 yearsthe lack of confidence in Gostkowski, as a rook initially, forced them to work on 4th and long plays and they got good at it.Clearly not tonight but it usually works well for themAlso, Feagles=gem, Pats punter gave it to them at the 20.

Actually, I don't think so. I would have to assume that Brady is passing on every 4th & long, so I looked at his splits (at ESPN) for the past two seasons. In 2006, Brady didn't attempt a 4th down pass with more than 5 yards to go, and he was 4/4 for 48 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3-5 yards to go. In 2007, Brady was 1/3 for 6 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3 or more yards to go.So, Brady was extremely successful on 4th down in 2006, and not so much in 2007. But as far as I can tell, he never even attempted a 4th & 8 or more, much less converted one.

Pats were 15 of 21, 71% on 4th down in 0716 of 20, 80% in 06ETA I see it's "4th and long" you're onto. Long day sorry. I should have said they had to work on 4th downs left out the yardage

FWIW JWB,While I'm diggingPats ran one run on 4th and 1 down by 1 score. Every other time(they attempted an offensive play vs punt) they were down by a score and at 4th down, they passed.4th and 2,4,5,6, and 7

 

[Buckfast]

Didn't Gostowski miss a chip shot in the playoffs? Do we know if he's 100%? Admittedly, 4th & 13 is a huge gamble, but didn't Brady break a buncha records throwing the ball? He may have been trying to pull NY offsides for a closer kick. Take it up with Coach Bill who is probably not the guy you'd want to be spending tonight with. Chris Myers probably saved his own life tonight by not pursuing that line of questioning with BB.

They said after the kick that Gostkowski was completely healthy and that it did not factor into the decision to go for it. Brady, of course, had an incredible season, but that cannot justify going for it on 4th and 13 every time. From my research using the Data Dominator, it looks like Brady did not have an attempt at 4th and long all season long, not surprisingly since the Pats lead most of the season. However, you can probably analogize by looking at Brady's conversion rate on 3rd and long this past season and it lends no support for the theory of going for it based on Brady's prolific season. In 2007, Brady threw the ball on 11 occasions when facing 3rd and 13 or further and picked up the first down only once out of the 11 times, thus giving a 9% success rate in picking up first downs from 3rd and 13 or longer. No matter how good of a season the QB might have, picking up 13 yards on 4th down is a difficult task and the chances of converting a field goal from 48 yards is as least 5 times more likely. There have been no good justifications offered for Belichick's decision to go for it yet.

 

[{Syrus}]

Arrogance.

Mike Martz refused to run Marshall Faulk more and lost. Mike Martz's career then became nothing.

Bill Bellicheck goes for it on 4th and 13 and loses. Bill Bellicheck's career as a head coach begins its downward spiral.

Motto of the story: when your head becomes bigger than the game, you wither away and are forgotten

 

[Tau837]

I love that this Patriots team lost its shot at history and its ticket to enter into discussion of best team ever because BB's ego was so big it cut the oxygen supply to his head and led to him going for it on 4th and 13. That's the most super special part of it all if you ask me.

Regardless of the outcome of the Super Bowl what this Patriot team did this year is deserving of being in the discussion of one of the best teams in NFL history.

The first criteria for best team ever is a Super Bowl victory.

this loss negates everthing

I'm glad the Pats lost, but I have to disagree. They set points records and TD passing and receiving records. They won all their regular season games. I don't think a loss "negates everything." It means we can say they're not the best team ever and have something to back it up-- but they're definitely in the discussion, and without question one of the best teams ever. They lost, I'm glad they lost and they deserved to lose. But the loss can't negate everything.

They are marginally better than the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. How often do you hear that team come up in the discussion of the best teams in NFL history?

 

[Tau837]

Didn't Gostowski miss a chip shot in the playoffs? Do we know if he's 100%? Admittedly, 4th & 13 is a huge gamble, but didn't Brady break a buncha records throwing the ball? He may have been trying to pull NY offsides for a closer kick. Take it up with Coach Bill who is probably not the guy you'd want to be spending tonight with. Chris Myers probably saved his own life tonight by not pursuing that line of questioning with BB.

They said after the kick that Gostkowski was completely healthy and that it did not factor into the decision to go for it. Brady, of course, had an incredible season, but that cannot justify going for it on 4th and 13 every time. From my research using the Data Dominator, it looks like Brady did not have an attempt at 4th and long all season long, not surprisingly since the Pats lead most of the season. However, you can probably analogize by looking at Brady's conversion rate on 3rd and long this past season and it lends no support for the theory of going for it based on Brady's prolific season. In 2007, Brady threw the ball on 11 occasions when facing 3rd and 13 or further and picked up the first down only once out of the 11 times, thus giving a 9% success rate in picking up first downs from 3rd and 13 or longer. No matter how good of a season the QB might have, picking up 13 yards on 4th down is a difficult task and the chances of converting a field goal from 48 yards is as least 5 times more likely. There have been no good justifications offered for Belicheck's decision to go for it yet.

 

[HellToupee]

I love that this Patriots team lost its shot at history and its ticket to enter into discussion of best team ever because BB's ego was so big it cut the oxygen supply to his head and led to him going for it on 4th and 13. That's the most super special part of it all if you ask me.

Regardless of the outcome of the Super Bowl what this Patriot team did this year is deserving of being in the discussion of one of the best teams in NFL history.

The first criteria for best team ever is a Super Bowl victory.

this loss negates everthing

I'm glad the Pats lost, but I have to disagree. They set points records and TD passing and receiving records. They won all their regular season games. I don't think a loss "negates everything." It means we can say they're not the best team ever and have something to back it up-- but they're definitely in the discussion, and without question one of the best teams ever. They lost, I'm glad they lost and they deserved to lose. But the loss can't negate everything.

To be considered the best team in history the 1st requirement is to win the SB

 

[analog_hiss]

I love that this Patriots team lost its shot at history and its ticket to enter into discussion of best team ever because BB's ego was so big it cut the oxygen supply to his head and led to him going for it on 4th and 13. That's the most super special part of it all if you ask me.

Regardless of the outcome of the Super Bowl what this Patriot team did this year is deserving of being in the discussion of one of the best teams in NFL history.

And the fact that they lost the championship will make it a very short discussion.

 

[Bri]

did that a number of times the last 2 yearsthe lack of confidence in Gostkowski, as a rook initially, forced them to work on 4th and long plays and they got good at it.Clearly not tonight but it usually works well for themAlso, Feagles=gem, Pats punter gave it to them at the 20.

Actually, I don't think so. I would have to assume that Brady is passing on every 4th & long, so I looked at his splits (at ESPN) for the past two seasons. In 2006, Brady didn't attempt a 4th down pass with more than 5 yards to go, and he was 4/4 for 48 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3-5 yards to go. In 2007, Brady was 1/3 for 6 yards on his 4th down attempts with 3 or more yards to go.So, Brady was extremely successful on 4th down in 2006, and not so much in 2007. But as far as I can tell, he never even attempted a 4th & 8 or more, much less converted one.

Pats were 15 of 21, 71% on 4th down in 0716 of 20, 80% in 06ETA I see it's "4th and long" you're onto. Long day sorry. I should have said they had to work on 4th downs left out the yardage

Right. I responded to your own 4th & long reference. And had you simply said 4th downs, I would have called you on it anyway... Bottom line is it was a bad call. Heck, a punt probably could have put them well inside the 20... gaining 20 yards on a short coffin corner punt is better than giving the ball away on a 4th & 13.

I think you missed the "go for it" and assumed I meant passthinking two oops's here man

 

[tommyGunZ]

i guarantee every Charger fan on this board was sick to their stomach when the Pats went for it on 4th and 13.

 

[monessen]

Didn't Gostowski miss a chip shot in the playoffs? Do we know if he's 100%? Admittedly, 4th & 13 is a huge gamble, but didn't Brady break a buncha records throwing the ball? He may have been trying to pull NY offsides for a closer kick. Take it up with Coach Bill who is probably not the guy you'd want to be spending tonight with. Chris Myers probably saved his own life tonight by not pursuing that line of questioning with BB.

They said after the kick that Gostkowski was completely healthy and that it did not factor into the decision to go for it. Brady, of course, had an incredible season, but that cannot justify going for it on 4th and 13 every time. From my research using the Data Dominator, it looks like Brady did not have an attempt at 4th and long all season long, not surprisingly since the Pats lead most of the season. However, you can probably analogize by looking at Brady's conversion rate on 3rd and long this past season and it lends no support for the theory of going for it based on Brady's prolific season. In 2007, Brady threw the ball on 11 occasions when facing 3rd and 13 or further and picked up the first down only once out of the 11 times, thus giving a 9% success rate in picking up first downs from 3rd and 13 or longer. No matter how good of a season the QB might have, picking up 13 yards on 4th down is a difficult task and the chances of converting a field goal from 48 yards is as least 5 times more likely. There have been no good justifications offered for Belicheck's decision to go for it yet.

Then what, pray tell, accounted for the Coach's decision? Are these posters correct about arrogance? Numbers are fine in hindsight, but this particular Coach has won numerous games and Super Bowls by not necessarily playing the percentages. His instinct told him to go with Brady over Gostowski maybe playing some heretofore unidentified hunch. In 2000 against the Rams, John Madden went bonkers second-guessing BB for not playing for overtime and Brady led the team downfield for a winning score. Madden, and probably many Patriot fans were probably shocked by the aggressive decision late in regulation, but it paid off.So, what is your theory? Arrogance? These fellas right 'bout that?