The Perfect Draft...Let's start at the 12 hole. (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

This thread is putting David Dodds "Perfect Draft" into real selections. We're gonna start at the back and work forward depending on how this thread ends up.

Let's look at draft strategy at the end of the 1st round with the numbr 12 pick...I think it can be a powerful slot if you do a few things right...and get a little lucky. I took ADPs from real drafts over at Antsports...now the serious drafts they have, show a bit of variance...but we have enough board police to keep it in line with what will actually be available. This will all make more sense as we go.

Let's assume a few things.

1. You play in a 12 team redraft

2. You play in some form of performance/TD combo.

3. You will not draft a TE or QB much before the 9th 0r 10th round at least. We would only look at those 2 positions if we absolutely found nothing else to choose.

Let's think a bit here. Now if you are at the end of the 1st round and you get 2 picks...you will not be making another selection for about 23 more picks...so you have to project and factor forward who will not be available by the next pick. So instead of locking in on 3-4 players, we need to really look at a much larger pool of potential players.

Example: You really think Kevin Jones is going to be a stud this year and his ADP is somewhere at the end of the 2nd round...if you truly want him then you either take him with that 2.01 pick or you try and trade down and pick up additional draft picks...do you understand what I am saying? I am not telling you to take KJ btw...that IS NOT what I am suggesting, but I am saying to look at the entire player pool when you make the pick.

This will make more sense as we go along.

1.12/2.01

RB:

"Cadillac"-it's possible he might slip to you, if he did I would say this is close to an automatic pick.

Brian Westbrook-In ppr leagues you could see him garner a lot of attention here.

Dom Davis-knee problems aside he is a dual threat and has the potential to put up some big numbers.

W.McGahee-I am not high on his production this season

K.Jones-no comment...hard to want to grab him with an early 2nd round pick

J.Jones

R.Bush

J.Lewis

I can watch McGahee, KJ, JJ, Bush, and Lewis get picked and not shed a tear...they might pan out OK but I can part ways easily with them.

WR

Steve Smith-Gotta really think about getting him...some FF owners are taking him ahead of "Cadillac" and that is the reason Caddy could possibly slip to 1.12...I doubt both would be on the turn.

T.Owens-primed for a big year

Chad Johnson-year in and year out it's 90 rec, 1,300 yds, and 9-10 TD...he's great.

Fitz and Boldin-Can they both keep it up...who do you pick? An entire thread could be and has in the past been devoted to these 2.

M.Harrison-Just posts solid WR1 numbers for whatever team gets him...has fallen off a bit.

There will be other WR gone by the time the 3.12 pick rolls around but I think these guys are your serious considerations. I did leave R.Moss out. If you feel different that's fine.

3.12/4.01

RB: OK so let's see if we waited on RB what might be available here. Some good stuff still on the board.

Reuben Droughns-was in Dodd's must grab 16 RB before selecting other positions.

W.Parker-Same as RD above. I don't think he'll be there but he is starting to slide just a bit...might be there, might not be there.

Tatum Bell-big gamble at this point in the draft. Has one of the best OL blocking in front of him

DeShaun Foster-getting Williams his back up is a must so you have to factor in where you get him too.

J.Addai-Likely gone before you pick again...will have to lock up Rhodes as well. I like Addai and the upside myself.

Corey Dillon-back to back 12 TD rush seasons...I see value here. Could easily shoot back up to 1,000-1,100 yds rushing.

WR: There is a big pool of WR that figure to be gone by the next time you make a selection.

DJax-potential top10 WR

Plax-did very well in NY last season

J.Walker-I'll let him work that ACL out for a year 1st.

D.Driver-not gonna blow by his projections. He's OK but limited upside to me. Rod gardner who can be had for a song much later in the draft I think is better value on the Packers.

Andre Johnson-till they get better as pass protecting in Houston I am very leary of any parts of the Houston pass attack. I'd like to think Moulds makes them a passing attack to reckon with...but when Carr is on his back all the time, not good. No denying AJ has all the skills though.

S.Moss-HELLO! This looks like a fine selection at this point in the draft. May not duplicate his numbers froma year ago but he certainly cannot go thru the floor with Randel El and Lloyd lining up with him...he should be able to stretch the field again.

These 4 WR will probably will not be there at the end of the 5th round

D.Mason

Deion Branch

TJ Housh

Joe Horn

5.12/6.01

RB: The pool is getting smaller and smaller of viable selections.

Ron Dayne

D.Rhodes...if you have Addai you must get him too

F.Taylor

D.Williams..if you have Foster then you must

T.Jones...not convinced he will repeat close to his numbers of a year ago...Benson

has to see the field more.

A.Green...just don't know what to think of him right now.

LenDale White...someone is gonna get him by default and possibly get a real steal in the draft.

WR: Another big pool of WR you either take here or risk being gone by next round

Lee Evans-do not like the Buffalo offense

Michael Clayton

Rod Smith-old faithful

Joey Galloway

Drew Bennett

Donte Stallworth

M.Muhammed

Nate Burleson...I think Engram return to the 3rd option in the pass attack, I like Burleson in a WR2 role.

Interested to hear what people think of the WR in this selection area.

7.12/8.01

RB: Not much but here we go

M.Barber III-not sure you have to draft JJ in order to take a chance on him.

F.Gore-He and barlow become an interesting combo pick at this point in the draft. Norv Turner will make one of them a nice value pick.

CuMart-oh how the mighty have fallen. Is he value at some point? I just am less than excited about the Jets as a whole this season. Big injury risk at this point in his career.

S.Gado-If you took Green then I guess Gado is a must too.

WR:

Koren Robinson-I'm intrigued

L.Coles-At best he is a 1,000 yds,,,not bad at this point in the draft I guess.

M.Jones-a gamble

J.Porter-I sort of like him at this point int he draft. 800 yds and 6-8 TD maybe?

E.Kennison-Can definitely live with him on my team. Sammie Parker may be developing but that only makes things easier for Kennison

B.Edwards-work in progress and who is throwing the ball to him?

Reg Brown-maybe as your WR4 or something.

9.12/10.01

RB: Lot of backups.

TJ Duckett

C.Perry

C.Houston

M.Anderson

B.Jacobs

Duce

M.Moore

Sure not planning my draft around any of those names...Moore, Houston, and Perry would seem to have the most upside if forced into action.

WR: Actually quite a few down here that represent value.

Key Johnson...has an all star opposite him...has never had that

K.Curtis

I.Bruce ???

B.Lloyd

K.McCardell

T.Glenn...has TO on the other side...should see 1 on 1 all year

E.Wilford

E.Moulds

A.Bryant

Keyshawn and Glenn have quality QBs throing the ball to them, I like them both as veteran WR who could see a lot of action this year.

So what would the gameplan be here? If we are RB 1st mentality...

1.12 "Cadillac" RB

2.01 Westbrook RB

3.12 W.Parker RB

4.01 R.Droughns RB

You won't have to worry about your backfield too much

5.12 Rod Smith WR

6.01 J.Galloway WR

7.12 E.Kennison WR

8.01 J.Porter WR

9.12 Key Johnson WR

10.01 T.Glenn WR

Or maybe take your 1st QB ont he 9th/10th round turn...could work it that way.

Let's assume "Cadillac" is gone and we mix it up a little more.

1.12 Dom Davis RB

2.01 Steve Smith WR

3.12 Reuben Droughns RB

4.01 Darrell Jackson WR

5.12 Ron Dayne RB

6.01 Rod Smith WR/J.GallowayWR/D.StallworthWR/Miachael Clayton WR/

7.12 Frank Gore RB...my ADP for Barlow is somewhere in the 11th round.

8.01 E.Kennison WR

9.12 T.Glenn WR

10.01 QB of your liking

What say you? This strategy might work in the 10th and 11th hole too...a few different selections but it might work there pretty well too. Do you think the people picking at the end of the 1st round are in trouble?

People picking early get a top RB, probably 2 topflight WR if they want in the 2nd/3rd round and can grab a top notch QB in the 4th too.

I encourage you to list who you would select with these same picks and players...insight as to why would be helpful for the board.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

C'mon now...everyone that views this should try and piece together the best possible draft. This is taking theory and putting it to good use. Maybe none of you have the 12th pick yet.

 

[nerangers]

I just wanted to see what kind of team the DD would come up with for comparison sake. It grabbed the QB in the 8th and I know you were looking for in the 9th or later. I also think we would grab the Defense later, and maybe only one TE (I would grab a second kicker over a second TE).

round

1 - WR S Smith

2 - RB C Williams

3 - WR D Jackson

4 - RB J Lewis

5 - RB J Addai

6 - WR J Walker

7 - Pitt Defense (I know, I know!)

8 - QB T Green

9 - QB D Brees

10 - RB D Williams

11 - TE H Miller

12 - TE D Clark

13 - K J Brown

14 - RB C Houston

15 - Wash Def

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I just wanted to see what kind of team the DD would come up with for comparison sake.  It grabbed the QB in the 8th and I know you were looking for in the 9th or later.  I also think we would grab the Defense later, and maybe only one TE (I would grab a second kicker over a second TE).

round

1 - WR S Smith

2 - RB C Williams

3 - WR D Jackson

4 - RB J Lewis

5 - RB J Addai

6 - WR J Walker

7 - Pitt Defense (I know, I know!)

8 - QB T Green

9 - QB D Brees

10 - RB D Williams

11 - TE H Miller

12 - TE D Clark

13 - K J Brown

14 - RB C Houston

15 - Wash Def

Let's have a look. I don't think Lewis is available at 3.12...I could be wrong but I still wouldn't be gushing over him...although if you take Mike Anderson as insurance in the 8th/9th round you might have something there. A decent RB2 possibly. If you draft Addai in the 5th, don't you have to take Rhodes there as well? I think Addai is gone by the early 5th round too.

Walker int he 6th...not sure I like that selection...the ACl needs some time to heal for me anyways.

2 QBs and a defense in the 7th, 8th, 9th rounds...that 's not gonna work for me. I see the VBD you are applying and its good to have it in the context of this thread...but no way would I put together a team that looked like this.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I'm glad I drew the one spot.

But, I do have SSmith at the 12 spot on my master list currently. I would draft him there all things remaining the same through preseason. The question for me would be if this goes full stud wr opening or wr, rb. The current answer is stud wr, but I expect that to change with more information on certain RBs. I also love Holt and see him as less risk than TO or CJ. You didn't even mention him as you were discounting Moss.

I have built a couple stud wr rosters from the 12 spot in mocks. I have watched another half dozen. I don't like most of them. One I did like went like this:

1. SSmith

2. THolt

3. DFoster

4. TBell

5. TBrady

6. Ron Dayne

7. DeAngelo Williams

8. Micheal Clayton

9. Kevan Barlow

10. Ben Watson

11. Mewelde Moore

12. Chris Simms

13. Isaac Bruce

14. Philip Rivers

defense, kicker.

I used 6 of 16 picks on RBs:

Bell/Dayne; Foster/Williams; Barlow; Moore.

Hopefully, a real draft would be deeper than 16 rounds and I could continue solidifying some weaknesses. But, going Team RB w/Den and Car created some confidence that I could field top producing backs, and maybe hit paydirt. Barlow and Moore have better shots than most around those ADPs of seeing significant action, and covering my precarious bye weeks.

I only have 4 WRs and start 3, but they look good to me.

Smith, Holt, Clayton, Bruce.

Clearly I would be adding some depth here in a longer draft.

3 QBs

Brady, Simms, Rivers.

I have the feeling this would develop into some solid trade bait once a couple QBs go down.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm glad I drew the one spot. 

But, I do have SSmith at the 12 spot on my master list currently.  I would draft him there all things remaining the same through preseason.  The question for me would be if this goes full stud wr opening or wr, rb.  The current answer is stud wr, but I expect that to change with more information on certain RBs.  I also love Holt and see him as less risk than TO or CJ.  You didn't even mention him as you were discounting Moss.

I have built a couple stud wr rosters from the 12 spot in mocks.  I have watched another half dozen.  I don't like most of them.  One I did like went like this:

1. SSmith

2. THolt

3. DFoster

4. TBell

5. TBrady

6. Ron Dayne

7. DeAngelo Williams

8. Micheal Clayton

9. Kevan Barlow

10. Ben Watson

11. Mewelde Moore

12. Chris Simms

13. Isaac Bruce

14. Philip Rivers

defense, kicker.

I used 6 of 16 picks on RBs:

Bell/Dayne; Foster/Williams; Barlow; Moore.

Hopefully, a real draft would be deeper than 16 rounds and I could continue solidifying some weaknesses.  But, going Team RB w/Den and Car created some confidence that I could field top producing backs, and maybe hit paydirt.  Barlow and Moore have better shots than most around those ADPs of seeing significant action, and covering my precarious bye weeks.

I only have 4 WRs and start 3, but they look good to me.

Smith, Holt, Clayton, Bruce. 

Clearly I would be adding some depth here in a longer draft. 

3 QBs

Brady, Simms, Rivers.

I have the feeling this would develop into some solid trade bait once a couple QBs go down.

Excellent. I didn't mention Holt and good of you to bring him up. I am cautious with Rams WR with the departure of Martz a little bit. But he is solid and still in his prime. DeAngelo Williams will most likely be gone by 7.12...his ADP is end of 5th to early 6th round...if you could get him there it makes an excellent pick with DeShaun Foster.

Bell/Dayne...excellent

Brady with the 5th round pick? That's cool but I want to try and not take a QB till possibly the 9.12/10.01 pick.

Barlow and Moore are good...like to see Gore taken somewhere to use with barlow...I go back to the pick used on Brady.

Excellent stuff CC.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Brady with the 5th round pick? That's cool but I want to try and not take a QB till possibly the 9.12/10.01 pick.

I'm notorious for being the last to pick a QB in this league. I'm a big believer in late QB, QBBCs, but I confess to having some pretty chart topping projections for Brady this year. I think he's peaking. That pick was almost Andre Johnson. It should also be noted that I was a little lucky DeAngelo fell 7.11, and if he didn't, this could have been a mess, but Gore would have been the call.

 

[Chaz]

Nice analysis!

I'm picking from the 12 in one league and I am certain that I'll be going RB-RB and then likely RB-WR. Pretty good chance that I get two solid RBs at the turn, so I am happy with my slot.

At 3/4, I could see myself getting two WR also.

At 5/6, I'll still look to add WR and maybe another RB, depending on the previous rounds.

At 7/8, probably the time to take my QB.

When it's all said and done, I'll likely be drafting my D and K very late, my TE around 10, along with my backup QB.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Nice analysis!

I'm picking from the 12 in one league and I am certain that I'll be going RB-RB

If - LJ, LT, SA, CP, TB, Edge, Jordan, SJax, RJohnson, RBrown, Caddy are all gone - which I see quite likely from dozens of mocks - then which two RBs do you value over SSmith?

 

[Musesboy]

I don't like the look of drafting from the 12 spot at all. Unless I hear something positive about Domanick Davis, I don't trust him.

If Rudi Johnson or Carnell Williams were to fall, I would happily grab either. But I don't think they will.

1.12 Brian Westbrook

2.01 Torry Holt (or S Smith or Owens)

3.12 Santana Moss (Dunn if he fell)

4.01 Corey Dillon

5.12 Joey Galloway (Mason if he fell)

6.01 Ron Dayne

7.12 Rod Smith (or Coles)

8.01 Laurence Maroney

9.12 Heath Miller

10.01 Brett Favre

11.12 Ryan Moats

12.01 Philip Rivers

 

[BassNBrew]

1.12 "Cadillac" RB2.01 Westbrook RB3.12 W.Parker RB4.01 R.Droughns RBYou won't have to worry about your backfield too much5.12 Rod Smith WR6.01 J.Galloway WR7.12 E.Kennison WR8.01 J.Porter WR9.12 Key Johnson WR10.01 T.Glenn WROr maybe take your 1st QB ont he 9th/10th round turn...could work it that way. Let's assume "Cadillac" is gone and we mix it up a little more.1.12 Dom Davis RB2.01 Steve Smith WR3.12 Reuben Droughns RB4.01 Darrell Jackson WR5.12 Ron Dayne RB6.01 Rod Smith WR/J.GallowayWR/D.StallworthWR/Miachael Clayton WR/7.12 Frank Gore RB...my ADP for Barlow is somewhere in the 11th round.8.01 E.Kennison WR9.12 T.Glenn WR10.01 QB of your likingParker and Droughens will not be there. I have already been in several drafts and these guys are gone by 3.8 at the latest, usually gone in round 2. You can also forget about DJax at the3/4 turn unless more bad news comes out.This year when drafting at the turn, you must go RB/WR. I've been seeing value at the 3/4 turn consistantly, but it's varied between WR and RB. By drafting RB/WR out of the gate, you've left yourself flexibility to select the best player available at the next turn. Don't paint yourself into a corner and you will be glad come draft day.

 

[KiddLattimer]

Excellent. I didn't mention Holt and good of you to bring him up. I am cautious with Rams WR with the departure of Martz a little bit. But he is solid and still in his prime.

I expect Holt to have better numbers this year as I expect the Linehan driven offense to lock on to the #1 guy all year rather than spread it around like Martz did.

 

[WildRover]

I would start by narrowing down my choices at the 11/12 spots. I really feel that, in most leagues, WR-WR is just not an option here. Let's not forget, the potential to ruin your draft decreases dramatically as the rounds progress. Don't kill your season in the first 15 minutes of the draft.

That being said, you absolutely have to take one RB, and if at 11, you take it first (obviously 12 is a wash). Reason being is that at 11 I think you are catching the tail end of nice middle 1st round group of RBs.

(1)LT

(2)Larry Johnson

(3)Shaun Alexander

(4)Clinton Portis

(5)Lamont Jordan

(6)Stephen Jackson

(7)Tiki Barber

(8)Brian Westbrook

(9)Ronnie Brown

(10)Cadillac Williams

(11)Rudi Johnson

That second group is a close bunch. Everyone is going to have their favorites, but they are all proven/featured RBs. League scoring will dictate how your first round goes; there is always a surprise or two, so it's not really a longshot one of these guys will at 12 also.

OK, so we have a RB, now looking to the turn.

Out of all the RBs left, I really don't see anything to justify pulling out one of the top prospects from the next tier, as comparable value is still going to be there at RB late 2nd/early 3rd. What you can get hear, is something that will not be available even as early as the mid 2nd.

Chad & Steve.

It is well documented that we are going through a "changing of the guard", of sorts, at the stud WR spot. There are a lot of different ways to look at it, but, I think, you have two clearcut, can't miss, prospects. I would include Fitzgerald in this list if he didn't play alongside Boldin. These two options at WR make 11/12 a much better pick than 8/9/10 this year. If the guy at 8/9/10 does make a move and takes Chad or Steve in the first, rejoice, and take two of top 11 RBs if you can (12 would have first shot at this). PPR just makes all this that much better.

You can't take Tomlinson or Larry Johnson, but they can't take Chad Johnson or Steve Smith. With Chad or Steve penciled in at WR1 for the season, I would gladly go RB/RB at 3/4.

If, after fours rounds, I am looking at..

RB Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams

RB Reuben Drougns

RB Willie Parker

WR Chad Johnson

I am pretty happy, but everyone has their own tiers, and you kind of have to see that middle first round group of RBs in the same light as I do.

 

[Chaos Commish]

there is always a surprise or two, so it's not really a longshot one of these guys will at 12 also.

I think it's prudent (well I know it's prudent) not to count on this. I have seen those 11 RBs fall in one order or another in some 90% of mocks. It IS a longshot. You take one if you get lucky. You plan on not being lucky.

 

[Chaos Commish]

If, after fours rounds, I am looking at..

RB Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams

RB Reuben Drougns

RB Willie Parker

WR Chad Johnson

I am pretty happy, but everyone has their own tiers, and you kind of have to see that middle first round group of RBs in the same light as I do.

I don't see any of this as likely in my redraft. Ronnie and Caddy gone in 11 picks. FWP adp in the 2nd round. Droughns ADP early 3rd. The only one of these players I think is available in a redraft from this spot is CJ.

 

[WildRover]

1.12 "Cadillac" RB

2.01 Westbrook RB

3.12 W.Parker RB

4.01 R.Droughns RB

You won't have to worry about your backfield too much

If, after fours rounds, I am looking at..

RB Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams

RB Reuben Drougns

RB Willie Parker

WR Chad Johnson

I am pretty happy, but everyone has their own tiers, and you kind of have to see that middle first round group of RBs in the same light as I do.

I don't see any of this as likely in my redraft. Ronnie and Caddy gone in 11 picks. FWP adp in the 2nd round. Droughns ADP early 3rd. The only one of these players I think is available in a redraft from this spot is CJ.

Sorry I was kind of lumping 11/12 together, to be more specific, any RB from that group of 11, and there is a line there of what will absolutely work for 11, but not 12. Although league scoring (and competition level) really dictates what is likely and what is not.I was using the first post as an ADP refence for 3/4. I didn't pull any numbers.

 

[WildRover]

Sorry I was kind of lumping 11/12 together, to be more specific, any RB from that group of 11, and there is a line there of what will absolutely work for 11, but not 12. Although league scoring (and competition level) really dictates what is likely and what is not.

Although, typing all of this out, seems my thoughts are much more valid from the 11 spot. Plans that will hold true for certain are never a bad thing.Good point Chaos.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Sorry I was kind of lumping 11/12 together, to be more specific, any RB from that group of 11, and there is a line there of what will absolutely work for 11, but not 12. Although league scoring (and competition level) really dictates what is likely and what is not.

I was using the first post as an ADP refence for 3/4. I didn't pull any numbers.

No need to apologize. I think 11 is sweet and who knows? Manning, Smith, McGahee, Westbrook... all candidates for the surprise 1st rounder. I'm just seeing it very rarely.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Draft in progress makes my point.

As does a draft that just finished there. Freight, a solid drafter, going for the stud wr from the 12 hole.

I'm watching.

 

[WildRover]

Sorry I was kind of lumping 11/12 together, to be more specific, any RB from that group of 11, and there is a line there of what will absolutely work for 11, but not 12. Although league scoring (and competition level) really dictates what is likely and what is not.

I was using the first post as an ADP refence for 3/4. I didn't pull any numbers.

No need to apologize. I think 11 is sweet and who knows? Manning, Smith, McGahee, Westbrook... all candidates for the surprise 1st rounder. I'm just seeing it very rarely.

Who did you have as the top 11 going in 90% of drafts. I have Westbrook in my 5-11 tier.(1)LT

(2)Larry Johnson

(3)Shaun Alexander

(4)Clinton Portis

Middle Tier (in no particular order)

(5)Lamont Jordan

(6)Stephen Jackson

(7)Tiki Barber

(8)Brian Westbrook

(9)Ronnie Brown

(10)Cadillac Williams

(11)Rudi Johnson

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Sorry I was kind of lumping 11/12 together, to be more specific, any RB from that group of 11, and there is a line there of what will absolutely work for 11, but not 12.  Although league scoring (and competition level) really dictates what is likely and what is not.

I was using the first post as an ADP refence for 3/4.  I didn't pull any numbers.

No need to apologize. I think 11 is sweet and who knows? Manning, Smith, McGahee, Westbrook... all candidates for the surprise 1st rounder. I'm just seeing it very rarely.

Who did you have as the top 11 going in 90% of drafts. I have Westbrook in my 5-11 tier.(1)LT

(2)Larry Johnson

(3)Shaun Alexander

(4)Clinton Portis

Middle Tier (in no particular order)

(5)Lamont Jordan

(6)Stephen Jackson

(7)Tiki Barber

(8)Brian Westbrook

(9)Ronnie Brown

(10)Cadillac Williams

(11)Rudi Johnson

You forgot Edge...he is going between 6-9 usually.

 

[ruelvis]

I would start by narrowing down my choices at the 11/12 spots.  I really feel that, in most leagues, WR-WR is just not an option here.  Let's not forget, the potential to ruin your draft decreases dramatically as the rounds progress.  Don't kill your season in the first 15 minutes of the draft.

That being said, you absolutely have to take one RB, and if at 11, you take it first (obviously 12 is a wash).  Reason being is that at 11 I think you are catching the tail end of nice middle 1st round group of RBs.

(1)LT

(2)Larry Johnson

(3)Shaun Alexander

(4)Clinton Portis

(5)Lamont Jordan

(6)Stephen Jackson

(7)Tiki Barber

(8)Brian Westbrook

(9)Ronnie Brown

(10)Cadillac Williams

(11)Rudi Johnson

That second group is a close bunch.  Everyone is going to have their favorites, but they are all proven/featured RBs.  League scoring will dictate how your first round goes; there is always a surprise or two, so it's not really a longshot one of these guys will at 12 also.

OK, so we have a RB, now looking to the turn.

Out of all the RBs left, I really don't see anything to justify pulling out one of the top prospects from the next tier, as comparable value is still going to be there at RB late 2nd/early 3rd.  What you can get hear, is something that will not be available even as early as the mid 2nd.

Chad & Steve.

It is well documented that we are going through a "changing of the guard", of sorts, at the stud WR spot.  There are a lot of different ways to look at it, but, I think, you have two clearcut, can't miss, prospects.  I would include Fitzgerald in this list if he didn't play alongside Boldin.  These two options at WR make 11/12 a much better pick than 8/9/10 this year.  If the guy at 8/9/10 does make a move and takes Chad or Steve in the first, rejoice, and take two of top 11 RBs if you can (12 would have first shot at this).  PPR just makes all this that much better.

You can't take Tomlinson or Larry Johnson, but they can't take Chad Johnson or Steve Smith.  With Chad or Steve penciled in at WR1 for the season, I would gladly go RB/RB at 3/4.

If, after fours rounds, I am looking at..

RB Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams

RB Reuben Drougns

RB Willie Parker

WR Chad Johnson

I am pretty happy, but everyone has their own tiers, and you kind of have to see that middle first round group of RBs in the same light as I do.

very interesting posts here... i know this goes against your initial rules, and i am NOT pro-qb selection in the first 6-7 rounds of the draft but if you are in the 12 slot and those 11 Rbs you have listed go 1-11 do you hesitate before drafting a wr and/or droughns/parker/westbrook (assuming you replace westbrook with edge in your top 11 list) and ponder taking peyton manning with one of your two picks?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...pic=246365&st=0

there was an interesting thread on here awhile back where some felt that with all of the question marks at qb this year (new teams, new coaches, coming off injuries etc) manning seems to be the only one without question marks and thus there may be some merit in taking him. if your answer is no, then how far do you let him drop before abandoning your predraft rb/wr or rb/rb approach and take him...is 2.04 thru 2.06 a no-brainer?

 

[WildRover]

You forgot Edge...he is going between 6-9 usually.

I am actually leaving him out intentionally. In recent years, what RB hasn't done better after he got out of Arizona, but, assuming he is in the top tier, same theory works for 12 spot. But, that might just be in my case, as it seems I am in the minority putting Westbrook in there but not Edgerrin.

 

[Chaos Commish]

You forgot Edge...he is going between 6-9 usually.

I am actually leaving him out intentionally. In recent years, what RB hasn't done better after he got out of Arizona, but, assuming he is in the top tier, same theory works for 12 spot. But, that might just be in my case, as it seems I am in the minority putting Westbrook in there but not Edgerrin.

I have him downgraded too, but not out of the top 11. For this discussion it isn't our personal projections that matter though. It's ADPs and who will be available. I expect Edge to be gone between 6 and 9 and it likely to be a mistake for some team. We'll see though.

 

[WildRover]

I have him downgraded too, but not out of the top 11. For this discussion it isn't our personal projections that matter though. It's ADPs and who will be available. I expect Edge to be gone between 6 and 9 and it likely to be a mistake for some team. We'll see though.

If that is the case, then my plan at 12 would definitely be to take the best available from these 12 backs...(1)LT

(2)L. Johnson

(3)Clinton Portis

(4)Tiki Barber

(5)Shaun Alexander

(6)Edgerrin James

(7)Ronnie Brown

(8)Lamont Jordan

(9)Cadillac Williams

(10)Brian Westbrook

(11)Rudi Johnson

(12)Stephen Jackson

And then Steve or Chad, but if Edgerrin was there at 12; I would have to rethink things. PPR has a lot to do with as well, that is what I am accustomed to, and I think that is why I am more comfortable with something like...

Brian Westbrook

Steve Smith

at the turn. With PPR, those two could be a very potent combo.

 

[jchap31]

What about tips for drafting from the 12 spot in a 12-team IDP Dynasty league that has a 2 RB/2 WR or 1 RB/3 WR starting requirement? You'd be crazy NOT to go RB/RB in that setting. Or maybe I'm wrong...just looking for feedback.

Edge (pushing near the 30 mark, prime over?)/K. Jones (bust so far) - both have major ???

or

Fitz (money, only 22) /Steve Smith (27, entering prime) - both safe picks

In a dynasty, the initial draft is the blueprint for the next 3 years or so. Do you take the "sure" things and suffer at RB or take a RB just for the sake of having 2 starting RBs your first year (chances are, taking two WR back-to-back pretty much ensures a top 5 pick the next year for a RB). Hmmm maybe I'm crazy but you could technically get a RB the next year with a high pick while picking up two staples from the 1.12/2.1 slots.

 

[jchap31]

nobody?

If not WR/WR then what about K. Jones/Fitzgerald or another young WR/RB combo.

 

[Chaos Commish]

PPR has a lot to do with as well, that is what I am accustomed to, and I think that is why I am more comfortable with something like...

PPR explains most of where I disagreed with you. Westy is going top 10 in PPR, but I bump Edge back up in that format.

 

[BassNBrew]

nobody?

If not WR/WR then what about K. Jones/Fitzgerald or another young WR/RB combo.

Already spoke to your question above.

 

[a_f13nd]

nobody?

If not WR/WR then what about K. Jones/Fitzgerald or another young WR/RB combo.

Already spoke to your question above.

I'm in the 14-hole in non-PPR, and I was originally thinking it's gonna be tough to turn down picking Torry Holt and T.O. from the position just because they are likely to have consistency. I think someone will pull the trigger on Manning and Steve Smith, possibly Chad Johnson, just knowing that I'm at the bend and expecting me to go WR/RB. I think Westbrook and DD are good when they are healthy, but I think it's unlikely they'll make it the whole season without a few games off. If they are out at the same time--which is a distinct possibility--it's game over. Now, through ADP you can get a good peak at what's happening in terms of securing RB tandems of Bell/Dayne and Foster/Williams. Both starters will likely post solid RB2 numbers. I am not so sure about getting either combo. I could potentially grab Bell/Foster in 3/4 and then just for security purposes I would take Dayne/Williams even over their ADPs. I could just see others trying to snipe the backups, or see the guy who shoots for Manning ahead of me thinking he has to get the combo. If I had those 2 combos and 2 top 5 WRs through 6 rounds would the team be stronger than if I picked RB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR? I would have to assume it would, because the early 2 RBs would equal not much better than DENVER RB/CAROLINA RB and the WRs would be much better. If the starters and backups are hurt and Cedric Cobbs and Nick Goings are the guys, then it's game over again.

However, if you can't pin down such a combo, you have to throw out many guesses to try to nab a starting RB. Picks like Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, in the 3/4 hole?? Take their backups in the following few rounds. Nab the SF combo. (I will probably do this out of the 7-8 hole if it's open.)

I'm seriously conflicted as to whether picking two WR studs and then 2 fallen giants is fantasy destruction or a way to make up for the talent gap between Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee. The fallen giants could be worth taking regardless, since who's better to have a career resurrection to the point of RB1/2 status--a former stud or someone who was never good?

RB-WR seems good in terms of minimizing risk. But is WR-WR so risky as to not be contemplated?

 

[joey]

Just got the 12th pick today. Not very happy, I gotta say.

My top 11 RBs, like everyone elses, are: LJ,LT,SAlex,Portis,Tiki,Lamont,SJack,Edge,RBrown,Rudi,Caddy

In very few mocks I've seen, one of those guys drops to the 12 spot.

So I'm basically left with the uncomfortable decision of choosing from:

Westbrook, DDavis or MaGahee as my #1 RB.

I was originally planning on going RB/RB with my 12/13 picks but I really

like the point made above that some value usually presents itself at the 3/4

turn and by going RB/WR at 1/2, you kind of maximize the ability to take

advantage of whichever position has the most value.

Going by Antsports ADP over the past 2 weeks, here's the kind of team I end up with:

1. Westbrook

2. Holt/SSmith/Chad (take your pick but I like Holt's consistency)

3. DeShaun

4. SMoss/Driver (slight reach) /DJax (if he slips)

5. DeAngelo

6. Rod Smith

7. LenDale White

8. Plummer/Brooks (depends how the QBs fly off the board in the 6th/7th rounds)

9. another QB

10. Isaac Bruce (digging his value)

For me, the DeShaun/DeAngelo question is starting to feel like the Priest/LJ threads

of last year, i.e. how early do I want to jump to grab DeAngelo in order to lock up

a studly run offense. Do I dare go DeShaun/DeAngelo at the 3/4 to play it super safe?

If so, then I grab 2 of Rod Smith/Galloway/MiClayton at the 5/6

Unless the preseason radically changes something, I'd lean towards taking the chance

on waiting til the 5/6 turn to grab DeAngelo.

Still, I'm not happy with the 12th this year as I basically think it is the worst slot to

draft from. But I don't plan on pointing to any shirts this year...

 

[Chaz]

Nice analysis! 

I'm picking from the 12 in one league and I am certain that I'll be going RB-RB

If - LJ, LT, SA, CP, TB, Edge, Jordan, SJax, RJohnson, RBrown, Caddy are all gone - which I see quite likely from dozens of mocks - then which two RBs do you value over SSmith?

For one, I like Kevin Jones. Also, I believe that, in this particular league, Manning and one WR will go before I pick. That would leave me with at least one of those you mentioned.I feel that I have had greater success with these guys by dealing with RB strength.

 

[BassNBrew]

nobody?

If not WR/WR then what about K. Jones/Fitzgerald or another young WR/RB combo.

Already spoke to your question above.

I'm in the 14-hole in non-PPR, and I was originally thinking it's gonna be tough to turn down picking Torry Holt and T.O. from the position just because they are likely to have consistency. I think someone will pull the trigger on Manning and Steve Smith, possibly Chad Johnson, just knowing that I'm at the bend and expecting me to go WR/RB. I think Westbrook and DD are good when they are healthy, but I think it's unlikely they'll make it the whole season without a few games off. If they are out at the same time--which is a distinct possibility--it's game over. Now, through ADP you can get a good peak at what's happening in terms of securing RB tandems of Bell/Dayne and Foster/Williams. Both starters will likely post solid RB2 numbers. I am not so sure about getting either combo. I could potentially grab Bell/Foster in 3/4 and then just for security purposes I would take Dayne/Williams even over their ADPs. I could just see others trying to snipe the backups, or see the guy who shoots for Manning ahead of me thinking he has to get the combo. If I had those 2 combos and 2 top 5 WRs through 6 rounds would the team be stronger than if I picked RB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR? I would have to assume it would, because the early 2 RBs would equal not much better than DENVER RB/CAROLINA RB and the WRs would be much better. If the starters and backups are hurt and Cedric Cobbs and Nick Goings are the guys, then it's game over again.

However, if you can't pin down such a combo, you have to throw out many guesses to try to nab a starting RB. Picks like Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, in the 3/4 hole?? Take their backups in the following few rounds. Nab the SF combo. (I will probably do this out of the 7-8 hole if it's open.)

I'm seriously conflicted as to whether picking two WR studs and then 2 fallen giants is fantasy destruction or a way to make up for the talent gap between Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee. The fallen giants could be worth taking regardless, since who's better to have a career resurrection to the point of RB1/2 status--a former stud or someone who was never good?

RB-WR seems good in terms of minimizing risk. But is WR-WR so risky as to not be contemplated?

Well I really like Driver or Roy Williams at your 3/4 turn. If you pass on RB at 1/2, your basically looking at needing to handcuff both of your 3/4 RBs, meaning you'll be burning picks during the sweet spot of the draft. If both of those turn into RBBC, your in for a long season of WDIS.

 

[WildRover]

This year when drafting at the turn, you must go RB/WR. I've been seeing value at the 3/4 turn consistantly, but it's varied between WR and RB. By drafting RB/WR out of the gate, you've left yourself flexibility to select the best player available at the next turn. Don't paint yourself into a corner and you will be glad come draft day.

I just can't talk myself out of taking the best RB available and then Steve Smith or Chad Johnson.

 

[Neo]

Has anyone ever thougt about going:

1 RB - 1 of the Top 12

2 QB - Manning

3 WR - Darrell Jackson / Santana Moss / Hines Ward / Roy Williams / Donald Driver

4 WR - Darrell Jackson / Santana Moss / Hines Ward / Roy Williams / Donald Driver

5 RB - Fred Taylor/Ron Dayne/Curtis Martin/Frank Gore/LenDale White/Cedric Benson

6 RB - Fred Taylor/Ron Dayne/Curtis Martin/Frank Gore/LenDale White/Cedric Benson

7 RB - Maroney / Barber / Gato

I'm in the 10 spot and am trying to figure out my strategy. This can also similarly apply to the number 12 spot.

To me, there is so much value at wr in the 3rd and 4th rounds this year, I am trying to figure out how to maximize that value.

Edited to add:

I just don't trust the rb's that are there in round 2 besides DD who we'll know more about health wise as the sesaon draws near. Just rather take a stud QB (or WR).

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Has anyone ever thougt about going:

1 RB - 1 of the Top 12

2 QB - Manning

3 WR - Darrell Jackson / Santana Moss / Hines Ward / Roy Williams / Donald Driver

4 WR - Darrell Jackson / Santana Moss / Hines Ward / Roy Williams / Donald Driver

5 RB - Fred Taylor/Ron Dayne/Curtis Martin/Frank Gore/LenDale White/Cedric Benson

6 RB - Fred Taylor/Ron Dayne/Curtis Martin/Frank Gore/LenDale White/Cedric Benson

7 RB - Maroney / Barber / Gato

I'm in the 10 spot and am trying to figure out my strategy. This can also similarly apply to the number 12 spot.

To me, there is so much value at wr in the 3rd and 4th rounds this year, I am trying to figure out how to maximize that value.

Edited to add:

I just don't trust the rb's that are there in round 2 besides DD who we'll know more about health wise as the sesaon draws near. Just rather take a stud QB (or WR).

Great stuff Neo. Would QBs getting 6 pts per passTD make taking Manning an easier choice? Would love to see more from you.I think 10,11, and 12 are somewhat interchangeable

 

[Neo]

Has anyone ever thougt about going:

1 RB - 1 of the Top 12

2 QB - Manning

3 WR - Darrell Jackson / Santana Moss / Hines Ward / Roy Williams / Donald Driver

4 WR - Darrell Jackson / Santana Moss / Hines Ward / Roy Williams / Donald Driver

5 RB - Fred Taylor/Ron Dayne/Curtis Martin/Frank Gore/LenDale White/Cedric Benson

6 RB - Fred Taylor/Ron Dayne/Curtis Martin/Frank Gore/LenDale White/Cedric Benson

7 RB - Maroney / Barber / Gato

I'm in the 10 spot and am trying to figure out my strategy. This can also similarly apply to the number 12 spot.

To me, there is so much value at wr in the 3rd and 4th rounds this year, I am trying to figure out how to maximize that value.

Edited to add:

I just don't trust the rb's that are there in round 2 besides DD who we'll know more about health wise as the sesaon draws near. Just rather take a stud QB (or WR).

Great stuff Neo. Would QBs getting 6 pts per passTD make taking Manning an easier choice? Would love to see more from you.I think 10,11, and 12 are somewhat interchangeable

I'd be real surprised if Manning is around if 6pts per TD. He's a no brainer in my book in the first in that scenario.Let's look at the rb's in the 3rd round.....who jumps out at you to be valuable? I can almost guarantee in my league by pick 3.10 guys like Droughs / C. Taylor and Willie Parker will be long gone.

That leaves the following:

Warrick Dunn

DeShaun Foster

Tatum Bell

Corey Dillon

Joseph Addai

The only guy I'm comfortable in rolling the dice with is Dunn. Just my own personal opinion and I'm not even sure Dunn will be there in my runningback heavy league. I feel just as comfortable with those guys as I do with the guys I originally listed that you can take in later rounds.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Has anyone ever thougt about going:

1 RB - 1 of the Top 12

2 QB - Manning

3 WR - Darrell Jackson / Santana Moss / Hines Ward / Roy Williams / Donald Driver

4 WR - Darrell Jackson / Santana Moss / Hines Ward / Roy Williams / Donald Driver

5 RB - Fred Taylor/Ron Dayne/Curtis Martin/Frank Gore/LenDale White/Cedric Benson

6 RB - Fred Taylor/Ron Dayne/Curtis Martin/Frank Gore/LenDale White/Cedric Benson

7 RB - Maroney / Barber / Gato

I'm in the 10 spot and am trying to figure out my strategy.  This can also similarly apply to the number 12 spot. 

To me, there is so much value at wr in the 3rd and 4th rounds this year, I am trying to figure out how to maximize that value.

Edited to add:

I just don't trust the rb's that are there in round 2 besides DD who we'll know more about health wise as the sesaon draws near.  Just rather take a stud QB (or WR).

Great stuff Neo. Would QBs getting 6 pts per passTD make taking Manning an easier choice? Would love to see more from you.I think 10,11, and 12 are somewhat interchangeable

I'd be real surprised if Manning is around if 6pts per TD. He's a no brainer in my book in the first in that scenario.Let's look at the rb's in the 3rd round.....who jumps out at you to be valuable? I can almost guarantee in my league by pick 3.10 guys like Droughs / C. Taylor and Willie Parker will be long gone.

That leaves the following:

Warrick Dunn

DeShaun Foster

Tatum Bell

Corey Dillon

Joseph Addai

The only guy I'm comfortable in rolling the dice with is Dunn. Just my own personal opinion and I'm not even sure Dunn will be there in my runningback heavy league. I feel just as comfortable with those guys as I do with the guys I originally listed that you can take in later rounds.

If you took Manning and Steve Smith you have a top3 QB and WR potentially...I doubt that any of the RB here will crack top3-5.In rounds 3 and 4 you almost have to committ to the run. unn and Foster are interesting but a a friend pointed out to me, Foster has never made it thru a season without hitting IR it seems. So why waste the pick...just take DeAngelo Williams a few rounds later.

 

[BassNBrew]

In rounds 3 and 4 you almost have to committ to the run. unn and Foster are interesting but a a friend pointed out to me, Foster has never made it thru a season without hitting IR it seems. So why waste the pick...just take DeAngelo Williams a few rounds later.

Except that you don't have a running to start until that injury occurs. Foster is the starter until that time...Williams will see spot duty and special teams play. Remember, we're talking an NFC championship caliber team...the vets with experience will get the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

This Thread sux because it is from the middle of July.

Moderator wont allow a new thread to be started.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This Thread sux because it is from the middle of July.Moderator wont allow a new thread to be started.

Of course they will...simply title it "The Perfect Draft...Now that we have seen some Preseason"...I'm sure the mods will let that fly.

 

[a_f13nd]

This Thread sux because it is from the middle of July.Moderator wont allow a new thread to be started.

Of course they will...simply title it "The Perfect Draft...Now that we have seen some Preseason"...I'm sure the mods will let that fly.

I don't get it.

 

[tangfoot]

This Thread sux because it is from the middle of July.Moderator wont allow a new thread to be started.

The cens0rs at this site have itchier trigger fingers than Shick! in the FFA.Don't start a thread offering up an opinion other than the "company line" or pointing out sources of free info and you _may_ be fine.