The Portis Injury as Opportunity (1 Viewer)

[redman]

Prior to the Redskins vs. Bengals preseason game, I was arguing that Portis should not be excluded from the top tier of RB's being considered on draft day, and that the Big 3 (LT, LJ & Alexander) really should be the Big 4. There is even some reason to believe that Portis could be rated 1st overall, but of course that's more debateable. Certainly, though, I saw little reason to think that any one of those top 4 was any better of a candidate to be the top overall pick than the others were, for different reasons of course.

This has given rise to some discussion regarding trading down, out of the top draft spot in a redraft league to 3rd or 4th, picking up one of the remaining ones of these elite players, and then being in a better position in Round 2 and 3 to grab good supporting talent, e.g. a WR1 and RB2, or a RB2 and TE1, etc.

Assuming that Portis' injury is no worse than a 1-2 game injury, and there are no debilitating effects even when he returns to the lineup, is there not merit in considering trading down to the 6th spot, for example, specifically to account for his situation, in order to better set oneself up for the remainder of the draft?

 

[GreedoShotFirst]

I have the #4 spot and was thrilled that I would be drafting Portis. In a non PPR league, I had no doubt that he rates higher than Tiki. Now, not so sure. The whole "you can't win a title in the first round but you can lose it" thing is making some sense to me. I love Portis, but I may end up going Tiki.

 

[Warhogs]

The real risk here is that you make the assumption he returns early in the season and has no lingering effects. Assuming that I would say it sounds like good strategy. I am just not sure that is a wise assumption.

 

[Joe Bryant]

The real risk here is that you make the assumption he returns early in the season and has no lingering effects. Assuming that I would say it sounds like good strategy. I am just not sure that is a wise assumption.

Good posting warhog. (And good angle Redman to look for opportunity in anything)Too many times, I see folks fall into the mindset that an injury is like a "time out" where you "do time" in a penalty box. Once the time is up, the player is right back in the game as if nothing happened.I think it's more accurate to assume it a scale. The guy gradually gets better. At some point, he's well enough to play, but still far from the guy he was before. Portis has already spoken to this about being "nicked" and wondering how many players will target him and his bad shoulder on blitzes and such. So the real question is what you say, how soon do we think he'll return and how much lingering effects will he suffer.J

 

[MLBrandow]

He'll be fine. People were fretting because there was the possibility of shoulder separation. It was partially dislocated. No tissue damage.

He'll be fine.

Carpe momentum. Definitely trade to the 4 spot and take him. Any more than that would be a greater risk than I'd be willing to take.

 

[Rounders]

The real risk here is that you make the assumption he returns early in the season and has no lingering effects. Assuming that I would say it sounds like good strategy. I am just not sure that is a wise assumption.

Good posting warhog. (And good angle Redman to look for opportunity in anything)Too many times, I see folks fall into the mindset that an injury is like a "time out" where you "do time" in a penalty box. Once the time is up, the player is right back in the game as if nothing happened.I think it's more accurate to assume it a scale. The guy gradually gets better. At some point, he's well enough to play, but still far from the guy he was before. Portis has already spoken to this about being "nicked" and wondering how many players will target him and his bad shoulder on blitzes and such. So the real question is what you say, how soon do we think he'll return and how much lingering effects will he suffer.J

Joe- Curious to know how you would approach this situation. If you were sitting at the 4 spot, what would you be thinking?

 

[jurb26]

He'll be fine. People were fretting because there was the possibility of shoulder separation. It was partially dislocated. No tissue damage.He'll be fine.Carpe momentum. Definitely trade to the 4 spot and take him. Any more than that would be a greater risk than I'd be willing to take.

A month should be pelnty of time to heal that shoulder. Especially seeing that its preseason and not regular season so I can't see them rushing him back to anything.

 

[redman]

It sounds like Dr. James Andrews is of a more optimistic mindset here:

Portis back by opener?

Dislocated shoulder may be healed enough by then

BY PAUL WOODY

TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

AP" border="1">

Redskins coach Joe Gibbs said the plan for Clinton Portis on Sunday was "to get one or two carries, get some contact and start to get in a groove."

AP

If the 2006 regular season began tomorrow, the Washington Redskins would have serious problems at running back.

But the opener is 27 days away, so Redskins coach Joe Gibbs is hopeful that Clinton Portis will be able to play in that game.

Portis, who suffered a dislocated shoulder Sunday night in a preseason game against Cincinnati, got a second opinion on his injury yesterday.

That opinion, from Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham, Ala., is that Portis' injury will sideline him in the short term. But with rehabilitation and treatment, Portis should be able to play in the first regular-season game, Sept. 11 against the Minnesota Vikings.

Andrews is a consultant for the Redskins and one of the most respected orthopedists in the country.

"As soon as he can get the soreness out, the doctors feel like he can start rehabbing," Gibbs said yesterday. "We would hope he'd be ready for the opener.

"Obviously, this is a big deal for us. Hopefully, we'll have Clinton going as hard as he can in rehab. I talked to him today. He's in good spirits."

The Redskins running back problems are exacerbated by injuries to other players at the position. Kerry Carter, who was making a strong run at a roster spot, suffered a serious knee injury against the Bengals. He's out for the season.

Ladell Betts, Portis' backup, has been nursing a strained hamstring.

Indications are, Gibbs said, that, "Ladell would be able to go this week."Jesse Lumsden, a first-year player who has

impressed the coaching staff with his size, speed and intelligence, has been sidelined with a hip flexor.

"He worked out some today [yesterday] and looked good," Gibbs said.

Rock Cartwright, the third-string running back, is the only healthy runner at the moment.

Portis, 5-10 and 212, is a unique performer. He set a team record by gaining 1,516 yards last season. He has gained 5,930 yards rushing in four NFL seasons and is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Portis is an adept blocker and decent receiver. In his two seasons in Washington, he has shown the ability to get tough yards between the tackles and break big plays around the edge.

Portis, who will be 25 on Sept. 1, suffered the injury while making a tackle on Bengals cornerback Keiwan Ratliff, who had intercepted a Mark Brunell pass.

"It's football," Portis said. "It could have happened at any point.

"He tried to jump back, and at the angle I was trying to tackle him, and with my arm out like that and the force going through it, of course it's going to go back. I pretty much knew what happened when I hit him."

Portis also indicated he was not happy to have been in the game at that point.

"That's a trick question," Portis said when asked if his evening should have ended sooner.

Neither Portis nor Gibbs foresees the running back making another carry in the preseason this year.

"Our decision as a coaching staff was that we would love to get those guys [the starters] eight, 10, 12 plays," Gibbs said. "In Clinton's case, we wanted him to get one or two carries, get some contact and start to get in a groove.

"It's one of the toughest things in football. It's a balancing act. How much do you risk getting somebody hurt? I'd say it's not something you want, getting your starting running back hurt like that."

Backup linebacker Chris Clemons also was hurt against Cincinnati. He suffered a sprained ligament in his knee and will be out for several weeks.

Clemons' injury, as well as the injury to Carter, has been overshadowed by the injury to Portis.

While Portis has a good chance of making a reasonably quick recovery, a question of almost equal importance is whether the shoulder will bother him all season.

"I think you never have an answer for that," Gibbs said. "We're hoping not. These guys are exceptional athletes."

AND FURTHERMORE: Gibbs said starting cornerback Shawn Springs has been suffering with soreness in his pelvic area and saw a specialist yesterday. Gibbs was happy with the first-string defense against Cincinnati, and that was about it. He was particularly upset with his team's three turnovers.

 

[TheLaw]

It's all about how the shoulder responds to rehab. The opener is a month away. I will take Portis at #5 and #8 in my respective drafts if he is there (unless there is some sort of setback).

I dont think there have been any reports whatsoever of ligiment damage.

 

[Urinal Mint]

OK, so you tweak his scoring for the first 3-4 weeks of the season to an 80% tick... he's still a top 5 back in most scoring systems.

 

[dgreen]

It sounds like Dr. James Andrews is of a more optimistic mindset

Pfft, what does he know? I read that some FBGs had a similar injury and it took them like two months to get back to their normal daily tv watching routine. If you ask me, I'm going with FBG testimony and not some quack "doctor."

 

[bocksheesh]

I agree with previous posters that it will all come down to how the shoulder responds to rehab.

But let me offer one bit of caution from my own personal experience:

I've had this same injury. And granted I never had close to the level of rehab and treatment that Portis is going to get. And granted Portis is a far stronger and better athlete than I ever was.

BUT, this injury was annoyingly recurring. Once you pop your shoulder out and then back in like that, it is prone to popping in and out frequently. At least, that's what happened to me. I rehabbed my shoulder to an extent, but it would pop out all the time when I was playing basketball or soccer.

And it will have nothing to do with taking hits on the shoulder. It has everything to do with flexing the shoulder and the angle with which the shoulder was bent. Basically, at its worst, if my arm moved anywhere above 90 degrees from my body, the shoulder would pop out. So if Portis takes one strange fall, and breaks it with his arm, or throws one weird block, the shoulder could pop.

Again, I'm assuming that Portis will get the finest rehab and treatment and that his shoulder will be fine. But as Joe Bryant alludes to, who knows how long the shoulder will nag at him, and more importantly, there is no guarantee that even if Portis and the team doctors feel his shoulder is fine for the start of the season that one weird fall will pop his shoulder out again.

Just my two cents from personal experience.

 

[Joe Bryant]

The real risk here is that you make the assumption he returns early in the season and has no lingering effects. Assuming that I would say it sounds like good strategy. I am just not sure that is a wise assumption.

Good posting warhog. (And good angle Redman to look for opportunity in anything)Too many times, I see folks fall into the mindset that an injury is like a "time out" where you "do time" in a penalty box. Once the time is up, the player is right back in the game as if nothing happened.I think it's more accurate to assume it a scale. The guy gradually gets better. At some point, he's well enough to play, but still far from the guy he was before. Portis has already spoken to this about being "nicked" and wondering how many players will target him and his bad shoulder on blitzes and such. So the real question is what you say, how soon do we think he'll return and how much lingering effects will he suffer.J

Joe- Curious to know how you would approach this situation. If you were sitting at the 4 spot, what would you be thinking?

Hi Rounders, right now today knowing what we know (which isn't a lot) I've got him as the #6 RB. It's also worth noting, shoulder injuries are not new to Portis. He has the scar to prove it from surgery on his right shoulder from HS. And even last year, he struggled at the end of the year with a bruised shoulder. From the game recaps:

Week 19 - Portis was the feature back for the Redskins despite nagging shoulder injuries, but he could not get the offense moving. He had 12 carries in the first half but none of those went for longer than four yards or for a first down. Portis entered the locker room at halftime with just 24 yards rushing and a two yard average.

And then from Decembe of 2004

December 26, 2004, 18:44 RedskinsRB Portis, CB Smoot InjuredAP - [Full Article]RB Clinton Portis, who is close to setting the Redskins single season rushing record, left Sunday's game at Dallas with a bruised shoulder. CB Fred Smoot also left the game. He suffered a lower back sprain in the third quarter and was taken to the locker room.

These aren't the same injuries. But it's something.J

 

[shredhead]

It sounds like Dr. James Andrews is of a more optimistic mindset

Pfft, what does he know? I read that some FBGs had a similar injury and it took them like two months to get back to their normal daily tv watching routine. If you ask me, I'm going with FBG testimony and not some quack "doctor."

 

[MLBrandow]

Pfft, what does he know? I read that some FBGs had a similar injury and it took them like two months to get back to their normal daily tv watching routine. If you ask me, I'm going with FBG testimony and not some quack "doctor."

sig'd

 

[redman]

It sounds like Dr. James Andrews is of a more optimistic mindset

Pfft, what does he know? I read that some FBGs had a similar injury and it took them like two months to get back to their normal daily tv watching routine. If you ask me, I'm going with FBG testimony and not some quack "doctor."

 

[jurb26]

I agree with previous posters that it will all come down to how the shoulder responds to rehab.But let me offer one bit of caution from my own personal experience:I've had this same injury. And granted I never had close to the level of rehab and treatment that Portis is going to get. And granted Portis is a far stronger and better athlete than I ever was.BUT, this injury was annoyingly recurring. Once you pop your shoulder out and then back in like that, it is prone to popping in and out frequently. At least, that's what happened to me. I rehabbed my shoulder to an extent, but it would pop out all the time when I was playing basketball or soccer.And it will have nothing to do with taking hits on the shoulder. It has everything to do with flexing the shoulder and the angle with which the shoulder was bent. Basically, at its worst, if my arm moved anywhere above 90 degrees from my body, the shoulder would pop out. So if Portis takes one strange fall, and breaks it with his arm, or throws one weird block, the shoulder could pop.Again, I'm assuming that Portis will get the finest rehab and treatment and that his shoulder will be fine. But as Joe Bryant alludes to, who knows how long the shoulder will nag at him, and more importantly, there is no guarantee that even if Portis and the team doctors feel his shoulder is fine for the start of the season that one weird fall will pop his shoulder out again.Just my two cents from personal experience.

I too had this injury and had a far different experience than you. I woke up the next morning and felt as if I could not move my whole arm. Spent a little less than a week with some pretty strong pain and range of motion problems (was in a sling) and then started rehab. Was perfectly fine in less than a month and went on to play several more years of football and have never once had even the slightest problem with that shoulder.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Here's my

If I had Portis on my roster, I would keep him on my bench until he practices a full week and/or is off the injury report - but more than likely he'd play before then. Most likely I would put him in my lineup starting with the week after he performed back to par.

I'd only change that philosophy if my alternatives were junk and a 60-75% Portis would be worth more than anyone on my bench. I'd still question it as there is a real possibility that he'd post a 0-3 score.

The bigger issue now is that it is draft time - so I am downgrading him slightly by a few picks to mid-to-late first round RB, down from Top 4-6.

 

[Da Guru]

My concern is that Portis came into camp lighter this year and inside running is not really his game. Will he still be the goal line back after his return?

Or will Gibbs not chance it and go with Cartwright or even Sellers?

 

[Chaka]

Prior to the Redskins vs. Bengals preseason game, I was arguing that Portis should not be excluded from the top tier of RB's being considered on draft day, and that the Big 3 (LT, LJ & Alexander) really should be the Big 4. There is even some reason to believe that Portis could be rated 1st overall, but of course that's more debateable. Certainly, though, I saw little reason to think that any one of those top 4 was any better of a candidate to be the top overall pick than the others were, for different reasons of course.

This has given rise to some discussion regarding trading down, out of the top draft spot in a redraft league to 3rd or 4th, picking up one of the remaining ones of these elite players, and then being in a better position in Round 2 and 3 to grab good supporting talent, e.g. a WR1 and RB2, or a RB2 and TE1, etc.

Assuming that Portis' injury is no worse than a 1-2 game injury, and there are no debilitating effects even when he returns to the lineup, is there not merit in considering trading down to the 6th spot, for example, specifically to account for his situation, in order to better set oneself up for the remainder of the draft?

I think Portis was going with the 4th pick before his injury, and he and Tiki have been neck-and-neck in ADP all offseason so I think it is reasonable to assume Tiki has leaped into the #4 spot with a bullet now, so I think you can get Portis @ #5 and if he is gone at #5 then you should be grateful that you don't need to deal with the headache of 16 "probable" or "questionable" listings on the injury report.Also trading down will put you in a better position in only the even numbered rounds of a serpentine draft.

 

[redman]

Also trading down will put you in a better position in only the even numbered rounds of a serpentine draft.

. . . unless you only trade out of the top-4 spot you were in and targeting Portis with to pick up another pick along with the 6th (or whatever pick) you think you can grab him at.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I would only take him after almost all the 2nd/3rd tier RB's are gone (@ pick 10). I think there is just too much risk there. That shoulder is weaker now. Who knows what could happen...

Optimism from the coach and the doctor in preseason?...surprise, surprise.

 

[Limp Dogg Bizkits]

I agree with previous posters that it will all come down to how the shoulder responds to rehab.

But let me offer one bit of caution from my own personal experience:

I've had this same injury. And granted I never had close to the level of rehab and treatment that Portis is going to get. And granted Portis is a far stronger and better athlete than I ever was.

BUT, this injury was annoyingly recurring. Once you pop your shoulder out and then back in like that, it is prone to popping in and out frequently. At least, that's what happened to me. I rehabbed my shoulder to an extent, but it would pop out all the time when I was playing basketball or soccer.

I quit reading after that point. Of course you took forever to rehab, you are a soccer player, not a football player!

 

[mr blond]

Prior to the Redskins vs. Bengals preseason game, I was arguing that Portis should not be excluded from the top tier of RB's being considered on draft day, and that the Big 3 (LT, LJ & Alexander) really should be the Big 4. There is even some reason to believe that Portis could be rated 1st overall, but of course that's more debateable. Certainly, though, I saw little reason to think that any one of those top 4 was any better of a candidate to be the top overall pick than the others were, for different reasons of course. This has given rise to some discussion regarding trading down, out of the top draft spot in a redraft league to 3rd or 4th, picking up one of the remaining ones of these elite players, and then being in a better position in Round 2 and 3 to grab good supporting talent, e.g. a WR1 and RB2, or a RB2 and TE1, etc. Assuming that Portis' injury is no worse than a 1-2 game injury, and there are no debilitating effects even when he returns to the lineup, is there not merit in considering trading down to the 6th spot, for example, specifically to account for his situation, in order to better set oneself up for the remainder of the draft?

If you are targeting Portis, I like the idea of trading down to 5. If Portis still happened to go in picks 1-4 you'd get Barber at 5. I don't think the dropoff from pre-injury Portis to Barber is as big as the dropoff after Barber to RB #6.Also, many view RB's 1-3 as interchangeable. That may hurt your trade value in only going back to #3. Going back to #5 (or even #4) should get you better value in return and still an excellent shot at getting Portis.

 

[Chaka]

Also trading down will put you in a better position in only the even numbered rounds of a serpentine draft.

. . . unless you only trade out of the top-4 spot you were in and targeting Portis with to pick up another pick along with the 6th (or whatever pick) you think you can grab him at.

Fair enough, I stand corrected.

 

[ericttspikes]

The real risk here is that you make the assumption he returns early in the season and has no lingering effects. Assuming that I would say it sounds like good strategy. I am just not sure that is a wise assumption.

Good posting warhog. (And good angle Redman to look for opportunity in anything)Too many times, I see folks fall into the mindset that an injury is like a "time out" where you "do time" in a penalty box. Once the time is up, the player is right back in the game as if nothing happened.I think it's more accurate to assume it a scale. The guy gradually gets better. At some point, he's well enough to play, but still far from the guy he was before. Portis has already spoken to this about being "nicked" and wondering how many players will target him and his bad shoulder on blitzes and such. So the real question is what you say, how soon do we think he'll return and how much lingering effects will he suffer.J

I agree. But I also think these early season injuries do present some value, especially for all-pro caliber players. I think people get a bit nervous, sometimes with good reason, about an injured player and tend to think short term. I think to a degree, Steve Smith was a player like that last year. The year before his injury he was a top WR taken. Last year he slipped several rounds because of the uncertainty. I consider a player like Portis slipping to the later half of the first round because of this injury a great risk/reward situation. Same goes for some players like Palmer or Culpepper slipping several rounds. Maybe these guys won't be 100% week 1, but the season is very long and injuries to even "safe" players are hard to predict. I like the "buy low" opportunity these situations present this year to roster pro-bowl talent at a discount, but understand this isn't for everyone as there is risk. In Portis' case, it was not he legs which helps.

 

[ericttspikes]

Portis late first and handcuffing Betts later is looking good to me.

 

[gocats]

Here's my If I had Portis on my roster, I would keep him on my bench until he practices a full week and/or is off the injury report - but more than likely he'd play before then. Most likely I would put him in my lineup starting with the week after he performed back to par.I'd only change that philosophy if my alternatives were junk and a 60-75% Portis would be worth more than anyone on my bench. I'd still question it as there is a real possibility that he'd post a 0-3 score.The bigger issue now is that it is draft time - so I am downgrading him slightly by a few picks to mid-to-late first round RB, down from Top 4-6.

Would you sit him for a Jamal Lewis type back?

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Would you sit him for a Jamal Lewis type back?

Only is Portis isn't dressed for the game.If Portis is healthy enough to play, he gets the nod over Jamal Lewis, 100 out of 100 times.

 

[george]

 

[donkey]

Portis late first and handcuffing Betts later is looking good to me.

This is my plan - sort of. I drafted him at 1.03 (LJ was a keeper for another team) Sat. 8 hrs. before he was hurt. My original plan was to go WR in round 3 (SJax is my keeper as a 2nd). I will now draft my RB3 in the third and see what falls to the 4th - 6th. Probably look for Betts much later just to be safe.

 

[my man otis]

Portis late first and handcuffing Betts later is looking good to me.

where do you expect betts to go now? i would doubt he lasts past round 5, meaning your first and 5th are essentially the same slot.

 

[packersfan]

I have the ninth pick in my draft and given what we know today if Portis falls to the ninth spot, he won't make it to 10. Given how much uncertainty there is with nearly all of the RBs in that same slot (including durability issues with some of them) I have zero concerns with taking Portis there. The opportunity to get a Top 5 RB (which is where I have had Portis ranked prior to the injury) at the 9th spot is well worth it IMO.

To answer the question about trading down, if you really like Portis I'd strongly consider it. The guy's tough and plenty talented. Joe is right that Portis battled shoulder injuries late last season but he also played through the pain and put up some terrific fantasy numbers.

 

[kbleck]

Its really interesting because in two drafts that started yesterday Portis is falling into the 2nd round now. I drafted Alexander at 1.03 and will probably have the opportunity to take him at 2.10.

I guess you have to take the chance on this one but still, it is hard to take a hurt Portis here over Holt or #85.

 

[Warpig]

Week 19 - Portis was the feature back for the Redskins despite nagging shoulder injuries, but he could not get the offense moving. He had 12 carries in the first half but none of those went for longer than four yards or for a first down. Portis entered the locker room at halftime with just 24 yards rushing and a two yard average.

And then from Decembe of 2004

December 26, 2004, 18:44 RedskinsRB Portis, CB Smoot InjuredAP - [Full Article]RB Clinton Portis, who is close to setting the Redskins single season rushing record, left Sunday's game at Dallas with a bruised shoulder. CB Fred Smoot also left the game. He suffered a lower back sprain in the third quarter and was taken to the locker room.

Sounds exactly like the guy I want to pick up with my first round pick. "Gimme the guy that'll be outta the game after the first half with a shoulder injury for $500 Alex"Can you say recurring and degenerative?

 

[redman]

Week 19 - Portis was the feature back for the Redskins despite nagging shoulder injuries, but he could not get the offense moving. He had 12 carries in the first half but none of those went for longer than four yards or for a first down. Portis entered the locker room at halftime with just 24 yards rushing and a two yard average.

And then from Decembe of 2004

December 26, 2004, 18:44 RedskinsRB Portis, CB Smoot InjuredAP - [Full Article]RB Clinton Portis, who is close to setting the Redskins single season rushing record, left Sunday's game at Dallas with a bruised shoulder. CB Fred Smoot also left the game. He suffered a lower back sprain in the third quarter and was taken to the locker room.

Sounds exactly like the guy I want to pick up with my first round pick. "Gimme the guy that'll be outta the game after the first half with a shoulder injury for $500 Alex"Can you say recurring and degenerative?

Bruised shoulder = partial dislocation?

 

[fatness]

AND FURTHERMORE: Gibbs said starting cornerback Shawn Springs has been suffering with soreness in his pelvic area and saw a specialist yesterday.

Didn't want this to get buried.

 

[(HULK)]

Portis late first and handcuffing Betts later is looking good to me.

where do you expect betts to go now? i would doubt he lasts past round 5, meaning your first and 5th are essentially the same slot.

Betts is a HORRIBLE value in the 5th. Right now, MAYBE he starts 1 or 2 games. Thats it. I can't see him being worth anything remotely close to a 5th rounder.

 

[packersfan]

Portis late first and handcuffing Betts later is looking good to me.

where do you expect betts to go now? i would doubt he lasts past round 5, meaning your first and 5th are essentially the same slot.

Betts is a HORRIBLE value in the 5th. Right now, MAYBE he starts 1 or 2 games. Thats it. I can't see him being worth anything remotely close to a 5th rounder.

Agreed. I like him and I think he's a decent backup but I sure wouldn't mistake him for this year's Larry Johnson. He's a late-round pick and I wouldn't sweat it too much if I didn't get him should I draft Portis. No way would I burn that high of a pick on him.

 

[stlrams]

The real risk here is that you make the assumption he returns early in the season and has no lingering effects. Assuming that I would say it sounds like good strategy. I am just not sure that is a wise assumption.

Good posting warhog. (And good angle Redman to look for opportunity in anything)Too many times, I see folks fall into the mindset that an injury is like a "time out" where you "do time" in a penalty box. Once the time is up, the player is right back in the game as if nothing happened.I think it's more accurate to assume it a scale. The guy gradually gets better. At some point, he's well enough to play, but still far from the guy he was before. Portis has already spoken to this about being "nicked" and wondering how many players will target him and his bad shoulder on blitzes and such. So the real question is what you say, how soon do we think he'll return and how much lingering effects will he suffer.J

Joe- Curious to know how you would approach this situation. If you were sitting at the 4 spot, what would you be thinking?

Hi Rounders, right now today knowing what we know (which isn't a lot) I've got him as the #6 RB. It's also worth noting, shoulder injuries are not new to Portis. He has the scar to prove it from surgery on his right shoulder from HS. And even last year, he struggled at the end of the year with a bruised shoulder. From the game recaps:

Week 19 - Portis was the feature back for the Redskins despite nagging shoulder injuries, but he could not get the offense moving. He had 12 carries in the first half but none of those went for longer than four yards or for a first down. Portis entered the locker room at halftime with just 24 yards rushing and a two yard average.

And then from Decembe of 2004

December 26, 2004, 18:44 RedskinsRB Portis, CB Smoot InjuredAP - [Full Article]RB Clinton Portis, who is close to setting the Redskins single season rushing record, left Sunday's game at Dallas with a bruised shoulder. CB Fred Smoot also left the game. He suffered a lower back sprain in the third quarter and was taken to the locker room.

These aren't the same injuries. But it's something.J

Joe:I'm also big on Portis this year and view his injury as an opportunity. Last year Cooley and Sellers combined for 10 short TD's (inside the 10 yd line but most 1-2 yds). I noticed in your projections you moved the entire 10 td's to WR production. I doubt this will happen and rather Portis/Betts will see the majority. You should re-consider your Wash RB production for TD's.....

 

[Joe Bryant]

The real risk here is that you make the assumption he returns early in the season and has no lingering effects. Assuming that I would say it sounds like good strategy. I am just not sure that is a wise assumption.

Good posting warhog. (And good angle Redman to look for opportunity in anything)Too many times, I see folks fall into the mindset that an injury is like a "time out" where you "do time" in a penalty box. Once the time is up, the player is right back in the game as if nothing happened.I think it's more accurate to assume it a scale. The guy gradually gets better. At some point, he's well enough to play, but still far from the guy he was before. Portis has already spoken to this about being "nicked" and wondering how many players will target him and his bad shoulder on blitzes and such. So the real question is what you say, how soon do we think he'll return and how much lingering effects will he suffer.J

I agree. But I also think these early season injuries do present some value, especially for all-pro caliber players. I think people get a bit nervous, sometimes with good reason, about an injured player and tend to think short term. I think to a degree, Steve Smith was a player like that last year. The year before his injury he was a top WR taken. Last year he slipped several rounds because of the uncertainty. I consider a player like Portis slipping to the later half of the first round because of this injury a great risk/reward situation. Same goes for some players like Palmer or Culpepper slipping several rounds. Maybe these guys won't be 100% week 1, but the season is very long and injuries to even "safe" players are hard to predict. I like the "buy low" opportunity these situations present this year to roster pro-bowl talent at a discount, but understand this isn't for everyone as there is risk. In Portis' case, it was not he legs which helps.

Hi Errict,For sure. There is always the opportunity for value when an item is discounted (which is basically what's happening here. Portis' price is being "marked down".The question is to find that sweet spot where the mark down represents good value. And it is risky. Curtis Martin is a good example. If he comes back week 1 and looks like his old self, he'll be a huge value. If he retires next week, that's different. Guys that took Marshall Faulk that were drafting super early had the same thing. But on the other end, are guys like Steve Smith as you said. He definitely was "marked down" because of the injury.T.O. gets the same thing because of the possibility of a blow up. But you're right, riding that line of how much is enough to discount is a way to get value. But it's also a way to overpay if it's not discounted enough.J

 

[my man otis]

Portis late first and handcuffing Betts later is looking good to me.

where do you expect betts to go now? i would doubt he lasts past round 5, meaning your first and 5th are essentially the same slot.

Betts is a HORRIBLE value in the 5th. Right now, MAYBE he starts 1 or 2 games. Thats it. I can't see him being worth anything remotely close to a 5th rounder.

Agreed. I like him and I think he's a decent backup but I sure wouldn't mistake him for this year's Larry Johnson. He's a late-round pick and I wouldn't sweat it too much if I didn't get him should I draft Portis. No way would I burn that high of a pick on him.

I don't think he's worth a 5th rounder either, the question was where do you think he'd go in a draft now.IMHO there will be someone who grabs him in the 5th or 6th in drafts right now, so a plan to draft portis late in the 1st and grab betts later will either most likely not not happen or be poor value.say it for what it is, if you draft portis as your #1 pick now you have to do so on the assumption he misses maybe 1 game and then is back at his predicted pace. if not then let someone else deal with it.

 

[redman]

Portis late first and handcuffing Betts later is looking good to me.

where do you expect betts to go now? i would doubt he lasts past round 5, meaning your first and 5th are essentially the same slot.

Betts is a HORRIBLE value in the 5th. Right now, MAYBE he starts 1 or 2 games. Thats it. I can't see him being worth anything remotely close to a 5th rounder.

Agreed. I like him and I think he's a decent backup but I sure wouldn't mistake him for this year's Larry Johnson. He's a late-round pick and I wouldn't sweat it too much if I didn't get him should I draft Portis. No way would I burn that high of a pick on him.

I don't think he's worth a 5th rounder either, the question was where do you think he'd go in a draft now.IMHO there will be someone who grabs him in the 5th or 6th in drafts right now, so a plan to draft portis late in the 1st and grab betts later will either most likely not not happen or be poor value.say it for what it is, if you draft portis as your #1 pick now you have to do so on the assumption he misses maybe 1 game and then is back at his predicted pace. if not then let someone else deal with it.

Why worry about other peoples' reaches? Draft the best player available to you at each position you need. Handcuffs are just the ideal, but they're not "necessary" for you to win, even when injuries occur.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Portis late first and handcuffing Betts later is looking good to me.

The problem now is that Betts is one EVERYONE'S radar, AND you have to use 2 draft selections to cover the Wash RB situation.Before it wasn't so bad - Portis in the first, Betts after Round 12 or so (debatable when after that, 12-16th).Now you are paying what many paid last year for LJ and Priest - without the same production (and talent for both).Sounds like a steep price to me.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

This is a great topic by the way.

What the Portis situation represents is an imperfect market - meaning that there is value here, but no one is certain what it really is.

There has to be a discount, but by how much?

If everyone knows that LT2 is a Top 3 back, everyone also knows that somehow getting him at #5 is a bargain.

That isn't the case here. Portis could be a steal at 6, or way overvalued.

When values are not known or there is differences of opinions, bargains may be had. I'm not sold that there is one on Portis unless he falls out of the Top 10.

 

[dickey moe]

Portis late first and handcuffing Betts later is looking good to me.

where do you expect betts to go now? i would doubt he lasts past round 5, meaning your first and 5th are essentially the same slot.

Betts is a HORRIBLE value in the 5th. Right now, MAYBE he starts 1 or 2 games. Thats it. I can't see him being worth anything remotely close to a 5th rounder.

But I think because of the potential upside for Betts, that's where you're going to have to pick Betts up. Because of this risk/difficulty, that makes Portis an unattractive pick at 1.04 or 1.05 -- I would probably drop him down to 1.09 or 1.10 right now.

 

[TheLaw]

Portis late first and handcuffing Betts later is looking good to me.

The problem now is that Betts is one EVERYONE'S radar, AND you have to use 2 draft selections to cover the Wash RB situation.Before it wasn't so bad - Portis in the first, Betts after Round 12 or so (debatable when after that, 12-16th).Now you are paying what many paid last year for LJ and Priest - without the same production (and talent for both).Sounds like a steep price to me.

Which is why you dont overpay for Betts and draft other RBs as your backup. Treat it as a possible extra BYE week if you really want to. I dont think Portis misses any regular season games due to this injury based on what has been reported so far. Is there any report whatsoever of ligament damage of any kind??

 

[redman]

Another thought on the Portis-Betts handcuff: if you've acquired Portis after trading down from one of the top picks, you should have an extra 3rd or 4th rounder at your disposal . . .

 

[Significant Shrinkage]

My .02 is that Portis is a value at #10-#12 overall if the following conditions apply

1) He's not your #1 RB

2) You wont have to spend higher than a 7th rounder on Betts

3) You have a proven history of being able to find very productive WR's in the middle rounds

 

[ericttspikes]

Portis late first and handcuffing Betts later is looking good to me.

where do you expect betts to go now? i would doubt he lasts past round 5, meaning your first and 5th are essentially the same slot.

Betts is a HORRIBLE value in the 5th. Right now, MAYBE he starts 1 or 2 games. Thats it. I can't see him being worth anything remotely close to a 5th rounder.

But I think because of the potential upside for Betts, that's where you're going to have to pick Betts up. Because of this risk/difficulty, that makes Portis an unattractive pick at 1.04 or 1.05 -- I would probably drop him down to 1.09 or 1.10 right now.

If somebody want's Betts in the 5th they can have him. I still think, provided we don't hear anything more negative, that 1.9-1.10 is a bargain for Portis. Portis has had injuries the past 2 years, and I'm pretty sure he started every game in that span. If this was Fred Taylor I'd be more concerened, but Portis has seemed to play with injuries o.k.