dickey moe
Fingerpicker
That's fine, maybe I'm just more conservative. I want my RB1 to be as healthy and with as few uncertainties as possible.
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The Portis Injury as Opportunity (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter redman
- Start date
packersfan
Footballguy
I disagree. While handcuffing can be of value I think it often gets over-exagerrated in terms of its importance. I'd rather grab a solid starter in most cases than grab a handcuff. Let's say you're in a flex league and you draft Portis, Dunn, Addai and DeAngelo Williams as your top 4 RBs. That's a pretty strong group IMO even if Portis gets hurt because if he does you can plug in Williams (who could be starting at some point and has much higher upside IMO than Betts). Sure the handcuff helps you cover the Washington RB situation but that's assuming Betts can produce solid numbers. I think he'll be OK and maybe even be a solid RB2 but that's pure speculation really. If you go the handcuff route you may not get Addai or Williams and so you've cost yourself a chance to really improve your team merely because you felt compelled to get your top RB's backup. I don't agree with that approach. There are times when a handcuff is worth a look but how many times has a Larry Johnson-type season happened with a backup? My point here is if I draft Portis and I can get Betts late I'm fine with that but there's no way I'm taking him over another RB I like more who I believe has more upside merely because I want to have a handcuff for Portis.
my man otis
Footballguy
Correct.Again, if healthy, Portis represents value to you late in the 1st and without reaching for Betts. If you think he's fine then roll the dice. Techincally there's also another indirect source of value when someone else reaches for Betts, letting someone else fall.
Hi SS,I'm not sure I understand there. If you take him at #10, he's going to be your #1 won't he?And in leagues drafting today, I wouldn't think Betts is lasting till the 7th in many leagues. J
(HULK)
(Smash)
Here is the solution if you draft Portis.Don't even worry about Betts, just take your RB3 while there is still something respectable out there. Like Dunn or Chester in the 3rd.IF Portis misses any time at the start of the season, you're covered.When the Skins bye week has come and gone, Portis will have played a few games and been fine. Betts value should've shot back down to slightly more than zero value. Trade your RB 3 to the team with Betts for Betts and an upgrade elsewhere on your team. Then, your set down the stretch with a garunteed Al Saunder's RB in your starting lineup, and you've improved your team elsewhere.I think my plan is genius.
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my man otis
Footballguy
if you draft your RB3 in the 3rd, doesn't that imply going RB, RB, RB in the first three rounds?Then you're drafting Portis AND then spending another very high pick to cover him in case of injury.
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As long as Portis and Betts don't share time. Like Al Saunders has hinted they will....
J
(HULK)
(Smash)
Won't happen. If Portis is healthy, they'll split as much as they did last year. If he's not healthy, Betts won't split with Rock anymore than Portis split with Betts last year.Washington's RB1 gets the ball 80% of the time.The reason being is that Portis is just THAT much more talented than Betts. And Betts is THAT much more talented than Rock. They're all at different tiers when it comes to talent.... and these coaches want to win, and they know that to win you need to have your best options getting the ball.Joe Bryant said:As long as Portis and Betts don't share time. Like Al Saunders has hinted they will....(HULK) said:
Gopher State
Footballguy
I would only take him after almost all the 2nd/3rd tier RB's are gone (@ pick 10). I think there is just too much risk there. That shoulder is weaker now. Who knows what could happen...
Optimism from the coach and the doctor in preseason?...surprise, surprise.
/quote]
Very
Hi hullk,I certainly don't believe everything a coach says but Saunders sounded pretty convincing hereWon't happen. If Portis is healthy, they'll split as much as they did last year. If he's not healthy, Betts won't split with Rock anymore than Portis split with Betts last year.Washington's RB1 gets the ball 80% of the time.The reason being is that Portis is just THAT much more talented than Betts. And Betts is THAT much more talented than Rock. They're all at different tiers when it comes to talent.... and these coaches want to win, and they know that to win you need to have your best options getting the ball.Joe Bryant said:As long as Portis and Betts don't share time. Like Al Saunders has hinted they will....(HULK) said:
I'm just sayin'....
J
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
My point here is that Betts represented a Portis insurance policy at the least, and from what Saunders has said and given the shoulder injury, he represents a bigger portion of the Washington running back production.Portis represented a big chunk of production for the Redskins, which made him a Top 5 RB candidate.Now, if your intention was to get that production for all 16 weeks of your season, you have to add in Betts, who just got a lot more expensive. If you believe that (A) Portis will be fine or just miss a game, or (B) Betts will not be overpriced, then I say go ahead and go this route.Prior to this weekend, I would have taken Portis at #4 and probably targeted Betts around Round 12 or 13. Betts is capable of posting solid numbers if Portis is lost for a significant amount of time, which is something you cannot say about many RB2s in the NFL. Now, with the injury, the chances of Betts having to step in as the top tailback just went up by a good amount (debatable how much), and the price you pay is moving him from Round 13 to Round 7 or so.Additionally, not every owner wants your handcuff option, unless there is significant opportunity at upside. That's 100% true of Betts - he could be the Redskins' starter Week 1 or more - so others will be shopping for his services.I would personally rather go the other route of a different RB1 and then consider other RBs later in the draft.TheLaw said:
Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
No one seems to mention that Betts always seems to have a nagging inuury himself. That guy always seems to be dinged up and he isn't even playing in games.
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I know this, my shoulder started sublexing (partial dislocation/pop out and back in on it's own) my senior year of high school (football)....5 years later as a senior in college playing bball, it was still popping out about 1-2 times a week in practices/games....That was obviously without contact like with football. Everything gets so loosened up in there that it slides out more and more easily with time. That said, I was not able to access NFL quality trainers/rehab. But, I am leery and could easily see him being "day to day" or "questionable" all most every week this season.
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LOL oops. SeniorThat must have been quite a year of school!
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
So basically Portis getting hurt is an opportunity to have him a little later, and then spend a valuable mid-round pick on a guy who would've been undrafted a week ago in most redraft leagues.
I'm in!
I'm in!
redman
Footballguy
What are you talking about? If you're referring to drafting Betts with the mid-round pick, you don't need to. By trading down (if that's how you handle it), you should end up with another 3rd rounder or so that would enable you to pick up a RB3 (not Betts) without screwing up your overall draft plan.
my man otis
Footballguy
no, the point is that if you believe it's not serious and won't linger you get the #4/5 pick at #9 or whatever and not take Betts (again, under the assumption that he's fine).Edit - or what the guy above me said, that's a good plan also.
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Brain hurts.... so confused... 
/drink time
Ok, so if Portis is there at 7 in a PPR league, (where I pick), am I truly hearing that is would be better to let him go by and pick up someone like Steven Jackson or Brian Westbrook instead?
Portis' schedule for weeks 14-16 is SO soft compared to those last 2.
I would think it's worth the risk, regardless of whether you handcuff Betts or not.
But, if there are better ideas on who to pick there, let's hear them.
Just my 2c.
Murrrrr!
/drink time
Ok, so if Portis is there at 7 in a PPR league, (where I pick), am I truly hearing that is would be better to let him go by and pick up someone like Steven Jackson or Brian Westbrook instead?
Portis' schedule for weeks 14-16 is SO soft compared to those last 2.
I would think it's worth the risk, regardless of whether you handcuff Betts or not.
But, if there are better ideas on who to pick there, let's hear them.
Just my 2c.
Murrrrr!
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Currently, where is the market to trade down? Before many people were posting about who they should take at the #6 pick since there's a clear group of players who will go in the top 5. Now that that top 5 has been compromised, why would anyone want to move up to inherite that problem?I think you're not giving your fellow owners credit if you assume they'll jump at the chance to move from 9 to 5, and fork over value in the 3rd for it. To me, the only way someone would do that is if they think Portis will be fine, and think that the #4 or #5 pick is going cheaper than it should.
So if not that, then the idea of this thread is "Port is is hurt - if you think he'll be fine, you can get him later thatn you would've been able to last week"...a thought to which I give a resounding DUH.
The Jerk
Footballguy
I think Jeff's suggestion strikes the best balance between value and risk. You're kidding yourself if you think there is no potential for this injury to be an intermittent season-long problem (think Kevin Jones last year). If you're a risk-taker, bump up the threshold to 7 or 8. If you're risk averse, drop it down to the 13-14 range (second round).One of the FF mantras that you hear repeated quite often is that injuries can happen to everyone. I completely agree. However, injuries are more likely to be a factor when a player is already hurt before the sesaon even begins. Think not just of Portis, but also D.Jax, TO, etc. In my analysis, this increased injury risk must be accounted for by dropping the player -- it's just a question of how much, and that varies as I stated earlier by your risk tolerance.It's true that Portis' injury presents an opportunity. An opportunity for value in getting a Top 5 player several slots later. Also an opportunity for your first round pick to be a season-long headache and underperform the draft slot.Jeff Pasquino said:
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redman
Footballguy
If everyone in your league viewed everyone's injury risk, talent potential, playing time, offensive scheme, strength of schedule, etc., etc. the same, then there would be no trades ever. Not to worry, Jets fan, not everyone's as smart as you.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Offensive schemes? Strength of schedule? Are you serious? We're talking about the top 5 here.Are you telling me that Portis was not a consensus top 5 on the vast majority of people's rankings? What a coincidence, we all must really like the Redskins strength of schedule this year, huh?If everyone in your league viewed everyone's injury risk, talent potential, playing time, offensive scheme, strength of schedule, etc., etc. the same, then there would be no trades ever. Not to worry, Jets fan, not everyone's as smart as you.
And, having accepted that Portis is a consensus top 5, are you also suggesting that it is beyond the ability of a given owner to recognize that since Portis is hurt, he's no longer a consensus top 5, and thus the #5 pick is less valuable?
Pretty simple here. The value of that pick is down across the board unless you play in a league with a bunch of "fish".
my man otis
Footballguy
that's the two ideas. apologies from all of us simpletons.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Apology accepted.
Not sure where all this 5th round speculation is coming from for Betts. At Antsports there have been 13 drafts since Portis injury (so granted, small sample size) but Betts ADP is 13.03 in those drafts. The earliest he went was 9.03.
Unless more bad news comes out about Portis or he suffers a setback I don't see where this "spending a valuable mid-round pick" stuff is coming from.
Unless more bad news comes out about Portis or he suffers a setback I don't see where this "spending a valuable mid-round pick" stuff is coming from.
The Jerk
Footballguy
This makes sense. I fail to see the analogy to Priest/LJ last year (as referenced above). While Saunders has mentioned the POSSIBIILITY of Betts and Portis playing simultaneously, there has been nothing close to the public profession that there will be a 2:1 ratio of playing time as the featured back. With the injury, although there is a very real potential for Portis to miss a game or two and it's almost likely he won't be 100% in September, that doesn't translate into any reliable uptick in Betts' production past the first few games of the season. It seems like sheer overreaction to inflate Betts value past the 10th round at this time.
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doomsdaydoc
Footballguy
There is no easy answer to this question. My draft is in a couple of weeks and I am in a very good spot to get Portis in the first round. This is risky and I am not sure that I would take that chance when there are safer backs to be had at that spot. Perhaps by the time I draft, the situation will be clarified, but I am not sure if I would be willing to risk a high-mid first round pick on him AT this moment. IF it were a late first round pick, it would certainly be a good investment.
redman
Footballguy
Now is probably the best time to act on this if you're a risk taker. The info from Dr. Andrews in Alabama indicated that it was a mild separation, and that he should be medically cleared to play week 1. The continuing doubt/pessimism in some owners' minds about his prognosis, which is probably at its peak now, figures to diminish over the coming weeks if Andrews is right and Portis returns to practice, etc.
