The Psychology Behind Trading (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Most people value their players higher than the actual value and your players less than market.

I think this is a built in aspect and human nature. I mean you have the players on your team because you liked them enough to draft or acquire them. The other guy has players on his team that he likes for the same reason.

Because of this I think it is logical that you overvalue your players and vice versa. It's not really that either of you are truly overvaluing the guys it's just you liked them more than others in the first place otherwise you probably wouldn't have them on your team. It's a large mental obstacle to overcome sometimes.

this is also why taking over an orphan is a fascinating experience if you haven't done it

I took over an orphan in a 16-team IDP SF PPR TEP league. I was told no one trades. I got like 6 deals done in the first 2 months.

I “overpaid” on paper in every one. League-mates thought I was the guppy.

I then proceeded to win the league in my 2nd year. No one thinks I’m the guppy any more.

This year I moved a 2027 1st + 2nd for Geno + Danielle Hunter. One of the new guys messaged me to tell me I overpaid & why would I pay that for a 3rd QB?

Then I flipped Geno for Rashee Rice. He wrote back that he underestimated me. I was like “you didn’t think I had a plan?”

When your league mates underestimate you you’re at your most dangerous.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Has trading while drinking ever brought you regret?

Not that I recall but I do remember dropping a QB back in 2001. He has played fairly well but didn’t seem to be anything special. I wonder whatever happened to #12 from the patriots.

Stone cold sober I dealt Brady for a 2nd his last year in NE.

Many told me I was lucky to get that much. He was washed.

 

[-OZ-]

Has trading while drinking ever brought you regret?

Not that I recall but I do remember dropping a QB back in 2001. He has played fairly well but didn’t seem to be anything special. I wonder whatever happened to #12 from the patriots.

Stone cold sober I dealt Brady for a 2nd his last year in NE.

Many told me I was lucky to get that much. He was washed.

Fwiw, I traded Keenum and brisset for him after he retired the first time in February 2022. That trade ended up being a league winning deal.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

I just wanted to add, that I am 100% on board with sending a really solid offer to begin with. I am unlikely to even engage with a poor offer. “We are too far apart to even begin negotiations”, something along this line would be my comment. If the same owner continues, I’ll just flat out reject without a comment or even the odd, just let it rot in my inbox!

And yes, goodwill goes a long way! Too many people are afraid to loose these trades. A few years back, I posted some of my trades and got ripped up a bit by the shark pool, a year or so later, my trades worked out quite well! Yes, some of them end up being loser trades, but it’s like gambling, just keep it above a 60% winning ratio. That means you will loose more than a few trades over time. Take the good with the bad!

Is it football season yet?!

 

[FarFromHome]

Most leagues im in I do the most trading. If during the season their is 30 total trades, im usually a part of 22 of them. Been that way since 1989. Outside of the draft, trading gives me the most entertainment. I like to trade. The psychology of it is it brings me joy when someone accepts.

 

[barackdhouse]

I try to construct initial offers in such a fashion that if it's too low it's only too low by maybe a small piece. Or what I think of as one single order of magnitude in value. So if I think the value is close to an average 2nd round rookie pick, I might offer them a 3rd instead, expecting or hoping that the gap in value is small enough to earn a counter. Often the gap is much wider in their perception than mine and the offer is seen as a lowball, even though in my perception it was close enough to talk.

I am unlikely to even engage with a poor offer. “We are too far apart to even begin negotiations”, something along this line would be my comment.

And I often will respond the same way to many of the crappy offers I get, whether I say it or not I'm thinking it. But! Many many times I have made a trade with partner B after negotiations fell through with partner A who responded about being too far apart to counter, but then the completed deal with B ends up being barely different in price. Team A then comes back and says "well if I'd known you would have bumped your offer from a 3rd to a 2nd" and I'm thinking to myself yeah buddy you're an idiot.

The gap that I thought was worthy of negotiations is a bridge too far for one owner to even talk, but it's close enough to a completed deal for another. The TLDR here is that it helps to know your leaguemates but for every owner that thinks my given offer is too stingy there is another owner that likes it. And so I'd rather hedge on the side of being in my favor just a skosh.

**another point about lowball offers - they can begin dialogue even if it's just talking ****. and that dialogue can lead to "oh you're interested in moving player x?" and then all of a sudden there is a whole new possibility of a deal and when you "make a better offer" it will make you look good. Because you have set the bar low. Hehe.

 

[barackdhouse]

There is often a player I'm targeting and we end up in a place where he is too expensive but then I end up paying somewhat significantly less for a different player that I actually like better but didn't think was within reach.

I think my partners experience the same thing from time to time with various other partners and so this is why I say it pays to advertise.

 

[JohnnyU]

Most leagues im in I do the most trading. If during the season their is 30 total trades, im usually a part of 22 of them. Been that way since 1989. Outside of the draft, trading gives me the most entertainment. I like to trade. The psychology of it is it brings me joy when someone accepts.

Can trading be a detriment to a dynasty league? Is more better? My thoughts are that they can if you have an incompetent owner or two. But in general I like active leagues with competent owners. No one is immune to a bad trade every now and then. It goes with the territory. You can't win consistently if you're not trying. I've seen bad decision owners become winners because they improve over time. The secret is not to become a scared owner. One that is spooked by bad trades that handcuff their learning going forward. Or worse, they give up.

 

[barackdhouse]

Example of how to be an effective low-baller and not lose face.

Offer a 3rd or couple 4ths for a player that ought to be probably be worth a 2nd. Let's say someone who had just been taken there like Tre Harris. They say "we're too far apart" so you send two 3rds this time and they respond "sorry"

Then you end up making a deal with them where you pay a late 1st for player X and includes a 2nd and a 3rd for their Tre Harris. The idea being you got what you perceive as great value for the late 1st for player X that you're much much higher on than Tre Harris, but if that part of the deal greased the wheel then the lowball did it's job. Like, why would you move Tre Harris for a 2nd if you just drafted him there? Because someone is paying a small premium AND giving you what you think is great value for that player X. Even if they started off with a crappy offer. Maybe player X was my target all along but I wanted to make them think I was doing them a favor.

 

[FarFromHome]

Most leagues im in I do the most trading. If during the season their is 30 total trades, im usually a part of 22 of them. Been that way since 1989. Outside of the draft, trading gives me the most entertainment. I like to trade. The psychology of it is it brings me joy when someone accepts.

Can trading be a detriment to a dynasty league? Is more better? My thoughts are that they can if you have an incompetent owner or two. But in general I like active leagues with competent owners. No one is immune to a bad trade every now and then. It goes with the territory. You can't win consistently if you're not trying. I've seen bad decision owners become winners because they improve over time. The secret is not to become a scared owner. One that is spooked by bad trades that handcuff their learning going forward. Or worse, they give up.

Absolutely. For that reason my last keeper league we eliminated the ability to trade future draft picks. This may sound mean but in years past we have also booted owners who make bad trade after bad. It's delicate. Imo

 

[barackdhouse]

I try to include notes in offers like "would also take/include player x, y, or z here or bump this 2nd to a 1st for player A or B" or "so and so is not on the table here". Not salesman stuff but informational and includes alternative ideas. Like I said sometimes you have to hold people's hand through deals.

It's in one of the articles I posted above but a few years back in FFPC I made a series of 3 trades with the same partner in a period of less than one month that ended up being worth a lot more to me in aggregate than my original offer that includes all 3 pieces I moved and the 1 I was targeting. Dude was too afraid to take original offer and talked **** about value here there etc. So I ended up breaking it into smaller simpler deals and fleeced him for quite a bit more than the up front offer. Sometimes you have to hold people's hands.

 

[Gally]

Haw many dynasty guys have used trades as a bet? I mean trading your 1st rounder for another 1st rounder if someone is talking cocky about how good they are?

I have done this a few times. Not always 1st rounders but it's a nice wager amongst friends....hahah

 

[barackdhouse]

Most people value their players higher than the actual value and your players less than market.

I think this is a built in aspect and human nature. I mean you have the players on your team because you liked them enough to draft or acquire them. The other guy has players on his team that he likes for the same reason.

Because of this I think it is logical that you overvalue your players and vice versa. It's not really that either of you are truly overvaluing the guys it's just you liked them more than others in the first place otherwise you probably wouldn't have them on your team. It's a large mental obstacle to overcome sometimes.

this is also why taking over an orphan is a fascinating experience if you haven't done it

I took over an orphan in a 16-team IDP SF PPR TEP league. I was told no one trades. I got like 6 deals done in the first 2 months.

I “overpaid” on paper in every one. League-mates thought I was the guppy.

I then proceeded to win the league in my 2nd year. No one thinks I’m the guppy any more.

This year I moved a 2027 1st + 2nd for Geno + Danielle Hunter. One of the new guys messaged me to tell me I overpaid & why would I pay that for a 3rd QB?

Then I flipped Geno for Rashee Rice. He wrote back that he underestimated me. I was like “you didn’t think I had a plan?”

When your league mates underestimate you you’re at your most dangerous.

I've had a few instances of taking over an orphan where someone sends me a message after a completed deal saying the previous owner was super stingy and they couldn't even start a conversation about player X. And often "thanks for bringing some life into the league". I get that a lot.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I've had a few instances of taking over an orphan where someone sends me a message after a completed deal saying the previous owner was super stingy and they couldn't even start a conversation about player X. And often "thanks for bringing some life into the league". I get that a lot.

Same - that league I mentioned is now super active.

Even marginal “around the edges” deals (I sent a 4th pick for Mike Williams recently) keep the league energy up.

It’s so easy for a league to atrophy.

 

[eighsse2]

Haw many dynasty guys have used trades as a bet? I mean trading your 1st rounder for another 1st rounder if someone is talking cocky about how good they are?

I have done this a few times. Not always 1st rounders but it's a nice wager amongst friends....hahah

I do love this idea, but never have pulled one off. Have offered before. Technically any trade involving one or more picks from each side could be considered to contain such a wager as a "component" of the trade. But straight-up would be a lot more fun.

 

[efactor]

Haw many dynasty guys have used trades as a bet? I mean trading your 1st rounder for another 1st rounder if someone is talking cocky about how good they are?

Not as a bet but have swapped 1st rounder with teams that I thought were overestimating their projected finish. Has worked out pretty well for the most part but been burnt once or twice too.

Also a big fan of trading players for a team 1st rounder when I think they will finish worse than anticipated. Traded Calvin Ridley a couple years ago to a team that was the runner up the previous year and expected to be a playoff team in 2023. 16 teamer so he was expecting the pick to be in the 12-16 range and Ridley was getting a lot of hype going into his 1st year with the Jags and Trevor Lawrence. Plus, it's a contract league and his contract was cheap so a late 1st seemed like a steal. I looked at his 2022 season and thought he caught a lot of breaks and was an injury or 2 away from missing the playoffs. Ended up being the #3 overall pick.

 

[eighsse2]

Also, my league banned trading picks more than one year out a few years ago , but I've found a very slight workaround. I only ever carry one kicker and one DST, and a lot of years, my kicker and/or my DST are basically replacement level when cutdown day comes. Meaning, at least like ~5 free agents projected higher than mine. So, I can cut my kicker and/or DST, and then not even draft a replacement, draft all offensive players instead. Then as soon as possible after the draft, unload any Player X for a next-year Pick Y (since immediately after the draft, the following year's picks become available for trading), and then pick up a free agent K/DST. I mean it's not much different from trading a player and picking up a free agent offensive player ... Basically I guess I just want to get my hands on the best rookies that I can get as top priority. Ultimately it's "sort of" equivalent to having already traded Player X for next-year Pick Y before the draft to free up a this-year pick, when the next-year pick wasn't allowed to be traded, at the cost of ending up with a possibly lesser K or DST.

 

[Birdie048]

Haw many dynasty guys have used trades as a bet? I mean trading your 1st rounder for another 1st rounder if someone is talking cocky about how good they are?

I have done this a few times. Not always 1st rounders but it's a nice wager amongst friends....hahah

GUILTY - sometimes talking trash has a fee to be put on the line to back it up.
simple wagers like I will trade you my 1st next year for your 1st next year as I know my team is better ...
Or a 3rd for H2H matchups.

 

[barackdhouse]

Haw many dynasty guys have used trades as a bet? I mean trading your 1st rounder for another 1st rounder if someone is talking cocky about how good they are?

I have done this a few times. Not always 1st rounders but it's a nice wager amongst friends....hahah

A few times yes. I love pulling these off if I can. I'll even pay for the privilege of making the bet. If I think the other owner can't win but thinks they're stronger than they are, and if I'm a contender which I typically am, I'll do something like my 1st for their 1st but I add on my 3rd to entice them. They almost *have* to accept. Or add some player I don't like but holds market value.

 

[darksideofoz]

years ago, in the league I've been in the longest, this real character in the league got me to the point that I wouldn't even acknowledge him when he would send offers.

he would spam offers. make offer, immediately revoke it. make slightly different offer. immediately revoke it. When I talked to him about it he said that was his way of telling me he was interested in trading. I asked him to stop doing this as I was getting tired of all the emails and instead to get ahold of me and talk it out first before sending a real offer. He refused and kept doing his method.

He also would make really bad rapey offers. and wouldn't negotiate.

one thing that really bugs me is people using the trade comments to tell me obvious stuff. like their stats. or their role in the offense. he did this the worst of anyone I've ever played with. I told him he needs to stop telling me all the basic stats for a player as I already know them or can get them within 2 clicks. He actually took that request as motivation to do it more and even worse.

so, after several years of this I told him that not only would I not trade with him, I would never even look at any offers he sent me.

Good. Ignorance is bliss sometimes. How does this guy do in your league? Does he treat other owners the same way? I wonder if he makes a point to get under others' skin and sees it as a competitive advantage.
I might think of playing elsewhere.

He was an interesting guy. very into conspiracy theories and he would make crazy posts every week. sometimes they were funny and somewhat related to football ("want to know what the real meaning behind the titans new logo is?" hehe). he acted that way with others with trades too, but he wasn't always like that. got progressively worse. he was an original member of the league but he eventually left. what little I've heard about him since then isn't all that great.

 

[JohnnyU]

I've had a few instances of taking over an orphan where someone sends me a message after a completed deal saying the previous owner was super stingy and they couldn't even start a conversation about player X. And often "thanks for bringing some life into the league". I get that a lot.

Same - that league I mentioned is now super active.

Even marginal “around the edges” deals (I sent a 4th pick for Mike Williams recently) keep the league energy up.

It’s so easy for a league to atrophy.

A league doesn’t have to be trade crazy to be a good league. Quite the opposite actually.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I've had a few instances of taking over an orphan where someone sends me a message after a completed deal saying the previous owner was super stingy and they couldn't even start a conversation about player X. And often "thanks for bringing some life into the league". I get that a lot.

Same - that league I mentioned is now super active.

Even marginal “around the edges” deals (I sent a 4th pick for Mike Williams recently) keep the league energy up.

It’s so easy for a league to atrophy.

A league doesn’t have to be trade crazy to be a good league. Quite the opposite actually.

True, but the league I joined was suuuuuper boring and there hadn’t been a deal in 2 seasons before I joined.

Now we have 5-7 a season & tons around the draft. It’s a more lively, fun league. It seemed like it was on the verge of disbanding before that because of the inactivity.

 

[barackdhouse]

I've had a few instances of taking over an orphan where someone sends me a message after a completed deal saying the previous owner was super stingy and they couldn't even start a conversation about player X. And often "thanks for bringing some life into the league". I get that a lot.

Same - that league I mentioned is now super active.

Even marginal “around the edges” deals (I sent a 4th pick for Mike Williams recently) keep the league energy up.

It’s so easy for a league to atrophy.

A league doesn’t have to be trade crazy to be a good league. Quite the opposite actually.

No but an inactive league is detrimental to everyone's team health.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I've had a few instances of taking over an orphan where someone sends me a message after a completed deal saying the previous owner was super stingy and they couldn't even start a conversation about player X. And often "thanks for bringing some life into the league". I get that a lot.

Same - that league I mentioned is now super active.

Even marginal “around the edges” deals (I sent a 4th pick for Mike Williams recently) keep the league energy up.

It’s so easy for a league to atrophy.

A league doesn’t have to be trade crazy to be a good league. Quite the opposite actually.

No but an inactive league is detrimental to everyone's team health.

Yep - absolutely. When no one deals, stagnation results in the best teams staying good and the worst teams losing interest.

Sometimes if I’m competitive, I’ll approach a perennial loser with an offer of picks for aging assets with a message like “hey, I’m not sure if you’re competing or rebuilding, but I’d be interested in some of your older players like [X, Y, Z] if you’re interested in future picks?” - sometimes that’ll help a team decide to rebuild if they’ve been slugging along.

Sometimes those team owners need that push.

I’ve probably made 10 deals like that. I’m one of those guys who deals away future picks (f them picks!) if I’m in a win-now window - that’s what really kicked off the trading in that league I mentioned above.

At that point we had a few teams focused on rebuilding, who were suddenly much more active, and some of the more competitive teams realized they’d better get in on the action before those teams sold all their useful aging parts.

Literally reset the league. It’s been 3 years and we have much more parity as well. Definitely put a spark into the participation.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

In this thread let’s be honest about what we do most of the time. Everyone every now and then makes what others perceive as bad offers, or throws a bunch of trades out there, even if we do some analysis of the other team to come up with a good deal. But what I’m after is digging deeper on the psychology of trading. Here are some bullet points I would like to discuss.

• I’m amazed at how many are scared to make offers, even if it is them wanting to trade, or just refuse to make good first offers.
• Do you send out offers after posting your players on the block? Or are you just waiting for offers from others?
• Do you have private discussions for what value you're expecting for your players on the block?
• Would you say that you make 90+% of the first trade offers in trades you do make? For some reason I very seldom make a trade where someone makes me an offer first and I make a lot of trades. Sometimes I may get a counter that I accept, but the first offer almost always comes from me. That tells me that people may want to trade, but don't like to make the first offer.
• Are you one of these people who approach every trade as a must haggle mentality? Or do you ever make your first offer your best offer? I find myself doing the latter more and more, and believe it or not, make more trades by making a great first offer.
• Are you greedy?
• Do you fear making a bad trade?
• Do you make a conscious effort to evaluate a roster to see possible needs before sending an offer?
• Are you a low baller on purpose? If yes, why would you believe this is a good thing? I know we sometimes do this by accident if our views on player value differ greatly from others.

Some people complain about never making trades in their league and some of it can be fixed IMO by taking a look at some of these things. Of course some are never happy and expect every dynasty league to have trades all the time, which may be an unrealistic expectation.

If you are not trading, you are not trying and most likely not winning. I'm an aggressive trader. My rosters consist of 75% traded-for players. I believe championships are won by trading and free agency. You have to be an okay drafter, but drafting is way below trading players, trading for players, free agency, and then drafting. In that order. The winning formula is simple. Make fair offers and work the deal till you can not work anymore. And do not be afraid to be on the losing end now and then, it will happen. No risk, no biscuit, but that does not mean you have to give the farm to get a trade done. Look at the rosters on both sides and try to fill a need or want on the opposing roster.

I have some favorite trade methods, and some work better with some managers and not others. Knowing your league mates is essential, but learning their likes and dislikes is more critical. Do your homework. I go back and look at trades other managers have completed in years past and look for patterns. If you have been in a league for a while, there will be patterns that owners have. See their completed trades from years past and look for the patterns—some managers like picks. Some managers will trade for a particular position more than for other positions. The past is an eye to the future. I also try to be unpredictable on purpose because I know how I think. That said, I know if I look at myself and scout myself, there is more than likely a pattern for me. The number one thought process is not to be afraid to trade and not to be scared to be on the losing end. Just be on the positive side of trading more than the negative side of trading.

 

[zed2283]

I think relying on trade calculators such as KTC and others to make your trade decisions is another way to NOT make trades. Or worse, try and use it as a bargaining tool when negotiating.

I disagree, especially when your potential trading partner DOES use them. In fact, I try to figure out exactly which calculators other owners use and have successfully been able to send offers based on that.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think relying on trade calculators such as KTC and others to make your trade decisions is another way to NOT make trades. Or worse, try and use it as a bargaining tool when negotiating.

I disagree, especially when your potential trading partner DOES use them. In fact, I try to figure out exactly which calculators other owners use and have successfully been able to send offers based on that.

Perhaps, but what I'm trying to convey to everyone is to not be the guy taken in by trade calculators. It's a mirage and a bad way to run your team. Anyone who puts too much emphasis on trade calculators for dynasty value is doing it all wrong. They are fun to look at, but in no way do I base my trade on one. Calculators such as KTC put too much emphasis on quantity over quality and too much emphasis on draft picks. I don't think there has ever been a true accepotable value placed on draft picks by trade calculators, taking into consideration a through analysis of that year's draft factored into the trade. Thus it is garbage IMO.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I think relying on trade calculators such as KTC and others to make your trade decisions is another way to NOT make trades. Or worse, try and use it as a bargaining tool when negotiating.

I disagree, especially when your potential trading partner DOES use them. In fact, I try to figure out exactly which calculators other owners use and have successfully been able to send offers based on that.

Perhaps, but what I'm trying to convey to everyone is to not be the guy taken in by trade calculators. It's a mirage and a bad way to run your team. Anyone who puts too much emphasis on trade calculators for dynasty value is doing it all wrong. They are fun to look at, but in no way do I base my trade on one. Calculators such as KTC put too much emphasis on quantity over quality and too much emphasis on draft picks. I don't think there has ever been a true accepotable value placed on draft picks by trade calculators, taking into consideration a through analysis of that year's draft factored into the trade. Thus it is garbage IMO.

The other issue is the calculator assigning value should be vastly different for a contending team compared to a rebuilding team. Alvin Kamara will have more value for a contender and a lot less value for a rebuilder, for example.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think relying on trade calculators such as KTC and others to make your trade decisions is another way to NOT make trades. Or worse, try and use it as a bargaining tool when negotiating.

I disagree, especially when your potential trading partner DOES use them. In fact, I try to figure out exactly which calculators other owners use and have successfully been able to send offers based on that.

Perhaps, but what I'm trying to convey to everyone is to not be the guy taken in by trade calculators. It's a mirage and a bad way to run your team. Anyone who puts too much emphasis on trade calculators for dynasty value is doing it all wrong. They are fun to look at, but in no way do I base my trade on one. Calculators such as KTC put too much emphasis on quantity over quality and too much emphasis on draft picks. I don't think there has ever been a true accepotable value placed on draft picks by trade calculators, taking into consideration a through analysis of that year's draft factored into the trade. Thus it is garbage IMO.

The other issue is the calculator assigning value should be vastly different for a contending team compared to a rebuilding team. Alvin Kamara will have more value for a contender and a lot less value for a rebuilder, for example.

There simply aren't enough filters allowed into the model. Nor enough draft analysis factored into the models. I think they generally take a generic approach to draft values. Imagine how much harder it would be to create a calculator that does the work required to make it useful.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Haw many dynasty guys have used trades as a bet? I mean trading your 1st rounder for another 1st rounder if someone is talking cocky about how good they are?

I have done this a few times. Not always 1st rounders but it's a nice wager amongst friends....hahah

I usually will throw in “my option to swap first rounders” in a future draft. This has worked incredibly well for me, including being able to land the number one overall pick one year (through the swap).

 

[FreeBaGeL]

If I really want to get a deal done, my strategy, especially when I have a strong team, is to overwhelm them with the first offer. Not nibble in, but rather go in hard, with a deal that they feel like they can't refuse.

I've found that if I lay out a trade, and then I ease a few pieces out to try and make it more even or weighted in my favor to explore if they might take less, with the idea that I'll just throw those pieces back in as "throw-ins" in a counter offer, I have less success in getting deals done than just including those pieces from the get-go and hitting the recipient with shock and awe where they feel like they have to accept it. There's something psychological where getting an overpay right in their inbox out of nowhere makes them rush to hit accept much quicker than if we slowly build to that same offer, where each counter offer is only a little better than the last one that they rejected.

This means, especially when i have a good team, I usually end up overpaying a bit compared to the consensus. To me this is the price I pay as the initiator, because I'm the one that wants a particular player. Additionally, when I feel strongly about a player and that the consensus is wrong about them, I will go hard after them.

I think just about every trade I've made this offseason with my strong teams has been voted in favor of the other side in the trades thread. But those teams stay strong year after year instead of just having a 1-2 year run and I think that's a big part of why. There's no room for sitting tight in FF. Things change so fast if you're not constantly reloading the team will usually die, even if it looks unstoppable right now.

 

[eighsse2]

If I really want to get a deal done, my strategy, especially when I have a strong team, is to overwhelm them with the first offer. Not nibble in, but rather go in hard, with a deal that they feel like they can't refuse.

I've found that if I lay out a trade, and then I ease a few pieces out to try and make it more even or weighted in my favor to explore if they might take less, with the idea that I'll just throw those pieces back in as "throw-ins" in a counter offer, I have less success in getting deals done than just including those pieces from the get-go and hitting the recipient with shock and awe where they feel like they have to accept it. There's something psychological where getting an overpay right in their inbox out of nowhere makes them rush to hit accept much quicker than if we slowly build to that same offer, where each counter offer is only a little better than the last one that they rejected.

This means, especially when i have a good team, I usually end up overpaying a bit compared to the consensus. To me this is the price I pay as the initiator, because I'm the one that wants a particular player. Additionally, when I feel strongly about a player and that the consensus is wrong about them, I will go hard after them.

I think just about every trade I've made this offseason with my strong teams has been voted in favor of the other side in the trades thread. But those teams stay strong year after year instead of just having a 1-2 year run and I think that's a big part of why. There's no room for sitting tight in FF. Things change so fast if you're not constantly reloading the team will usually die, even if it looks unstoppable right now.

Good call with the shock and awe aspect.

Just speculating here, but if the other owner isn't already familiar with your level of savvy, it could also, in a positive way, make them more inclined to think they're "getting away with robbery against a big ol' dummy, I can't believe he would offer that much". Whereas, if you start with a more advantageous offer on your own side, and then gradually throw other pieces in, it could be more obvious that you know what you're doing. "Shark tactics", I guess is what I'm getting at. Not necessarily part of what you're talking about, but in some cases.

 

[JohnnyU]

If I really want to get a deal done, my strategy, especially when I have a strong team, is to overwhelm them with the first offer. Not nibble in, but rather go in hard, with a deal that they feel like they can't refuse.

I've found that if I lay out a trade, and then I ease a few pieces out to try and make it more even or weighted in my favor to explore if they might take less, with the idea that I'll just throw those pieces back in as "throw-ins" in a counter offer, I have less success in getting deals done than just including those pieces from the get-go and hitting the recipient with shock and awe where they feel like they have to accept it. There's something psychological where getting an overpay right in their inbox out of nowhere makes them rush to hit accept much quicker than if we slowly build to that same offer, where each counter offer is only a little better than the last one that they rejected.

This means, especially when i have a good team, I usually end up overpaying a bit compared to the consensus. To me this is the price I pay as the initiator, because I'm the one that wants a particular player. Additionally, when I feel strongly about a player and that the consensus is wrong about them, I will go hard after them.

I think just about every trade I've made this offseason with my strong teams has been voted in favor of the other side in the trades thread. But those teams stay strong year after year instead of just having a 1-2 year run and I think that's a big part of why. There's no room for sitting tight in FF. Things change so fast if you're not constantly reloading the team will usually die, even if it looks unstoppable right now.

Good call with the shock and awe aspect.

Just speculating here, but if the other owner isn't already familiar with your level of savvy, it could also, in a positive way, make them more inclined to think they're "getting away with robbery against a big ol' dummy, I can't believe he would offer that much". Whereas, if you start with a more advantageous offer on your own side, and then gradually throw other pieces in, it could be more obvious that you know what you're doing. "Shark tactics", I guess is what I'm getting at. Not necessarily part of what you're talking about, but in some cases.

I believe some owners get fed up with the slow roll of adding pieces in order to extract the most value possible in a trade. I know I do. I’ll just walk away and go do something else. Just get to the point is the best way for me. I have no problem walking away from any deal after I’ve made my best offer, and sometimes it’s right out of the gate. I don’t mess around. For those that are used to the slow roll of haggling are taken back by this approach and are left flabbergasted. Those that know how to adjust can benefit from it. I guess what I’m saying is, read the room.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

A little late to the party, but here are a few things I need to get better at in DYNASTY trading:

1. Become less emotionally attached to certain players. For instance, puka was a late 3rd rounder for me and has represented "good drafting" in my eyes. Last year I turned down a very favorable offer for him because of the emotional attachment.

2. Respond to BS offers with less emotion. We all get them and we all get annoyed at them. Mostly they go nowhere, but I've started always countering with something slightly favorable on my end. It'll let me know if they are just pushing out offers or if they are serious.

3. Block spam offerers. Nothing pisses me off more than dudes who spam bad offers 6x a day. I don't need the email clutter and they can reach me other ways if they are serious. This is the main reason I left ffpc.

4. Evaluate trades both good and bad after the season to analyze my tendencies.

5. Reach out more via other avenues of communication.

6. Take a beat before accepting or rejecting trades. Sometimes snap judgement is dead wrong.

Probably a lot more that I'm missing but that's a good start.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If I really want to get a deal done, my strategy, especially when I have a strong team, is to overwhelm them with the first offer. Not nibble in, but rather go in hard, with a deal that they feel like they can't refuse.

With some owners I’ll take this approach.

With others I won’t, simply because I knew them too well - no matter how much of an overpay, they’ll come back and ask for another piece. You can set your watch by it.

Greedy bastards.

 

[JohnnyU]

Something I quit doing years ago is falling in love with players to where it becomes a detriment. I may want to add a player in all my leagues, but only if it feels right to do so. I may not even care to overpay, but I’m not going to ruin my team’s future to do it.

 

[eighsse2]

If I really want to get a deal done, my strategy, especially when I have a strong team, is to overwhelm them with the first offer. Not nibble in, but rather go in hard, with a deal that they feel like they can't refuse.

I've found that if I lay out a trade, and then I ease a few pieces out to try and make it more even or weighted in my favor to explore if they might take less, with the idea that I'll just throw those pieces back in as "throw-ins" in a counter offer, I have less success in getting deals done than just including those pieces from the get-go and hitting the recipient with shock and awe where they feel like they have to accept it. There's something psychological where getting an overpay right in their inbox out of nowhere makes them rush to hit accept much quicker than if we slowly build to that same offer, where each counter offer is only a little better than the last one that they rejected.

This means, especially when i have a good team, I usually end up overpaying a bit compared to the consensus. To me this is the price I pay as the initiator, because I'm the one that wants a particular player. Additionally, when I feel strongly about a player and that the consensus is wrong about them, I will go hard after them.

I think just about every trade I've made this offseason with my strong teams has been voted in favor of the other side in the trades thread. But those teams stay strong year after year instead of just having a 1-2 year run and I think that's a big part of why. There's no room for sitting tight in FF. Things change so fast if you're not constantly reloading the team will usually die, even if it looks unstoppable right now.

Good call with the shock and awe aspect.

Just speculating here, but if the other owner isn't already familiar with your level of savvy, it could also, in a positive way, make them more inclined to think they're "getting away with robbery against a big ol' dummy, I can't believe he would offer that much". Whereas, if you start with a more advantageous offer on your own side, and then gradually throw other pieces in, it could be more obvious that you know what you're doing. "Shark tactics", I guess is what I'm getting at. Not necessarily part of what you're talking about, but in some cases.

I believe some owners get fed up with the slow roll of adding pieces in order to extract the most value possible in a trade. I know I do. I’ll just walk away and go do something else. Just get to the point is the best way for me. I have no problem walking away from any deal after I’ve made my best offer, and sometimes it’s right out of the gate. I don’t mess around. For those that are used to the slow roll of haggling and are taken back by this approach and are left flabbergasted. Those that know how to adjust can benefit from it. I guess what I’m saying is, read the room.

And I do feel like, if the added in pieces ultimately amount to a very significant value, like two mid firsts or something ... by adding all that in, you're implicitly saying "Yeah I was majorly lowballing you with my first offer, and I was well aware of it." Especially if the add-ins come immediately after rejection, and you can't claim "well, I slept on it, and I think I can throw in ..."

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

2. Respond to BS offers with less emotion. We all get them and we all get annoyed at them. Mostly they go nowhere, but I've started always countering with something slightly favorable on my end. It'll let me know if they are just pushing out offers or if they are serious

I’ve developed an entire strategy around this one. Rather than being irritated by a crappy offer, I see it as an opportunity to improve my roster.

I take my knee jerk emotional reaction out of the equation, and instead look at the player they’re interested in & send what I believe is a reasonable counter.

This is where I’ll use the message to greatest impact, “hey thanks for the offer, but I value [so-and-so] with consensus on the value charts. I can’t do it for that, but would you consider this as a compromise?”

Something like that. I find that often people throw out offers without thinking them through, or understanding player value. Even if they do, maybe they’re not familiar with the resources out there that can help everyone speak the same language.

I guess it’s about both assuming the best of people’s intentions, & seeing any offer as an opportunity to get a deal done, & preferably in my favor. Some opening salvos stink - but that’s just a 1st step on what could be a very productive journey.

 

[JohnnyU]

2. Respond to BS offers with less emotion. We all get them and we all get annoyed at them. Mostly they go nowhere, but I've started always countering with something slightly favorable on my end. It'll let me know if they are just pushing out offers or if they are serious

I’ve developed an entire strategy around this one. Rather than being irritated by a crappy offer, I see it as an opportunity to improve my roster.

I take my knee jerk emotional reaction out of the equation, and instead look at the player they’re interested in & send what I believe is a reasonable counter.

This is where I’ll use the message to greatest impact, “hey thanks for the offer, but I value [so-and-so] with consensus on the value charts. I can’t do it for that, but would you consider this as a compromise?”

Something like that. I find that often people throw out offers without thinking them through, or understanding player value. Even if they do, maybe they’re not familiar with the resources out there that can help everyone speak the same language.

I guess it’s about both assuming the best of people’s intentions, & seeing any offer as an opportunity to get a deal done, & preferably in my favor. Some opening salvos stink - but that’s just a 1st step on what could be a very productive journey.

I really like the last paragraph. I suppose to a fault I don’t like fiddle farting when trading.

 

[barackdhouse]

I think relying on trade calculators such as KTC and others to make your trade decisions is another way to NOT make trades. Or worse, try and use it as a bargaining tool when negotiating.

I disagree, especially when your potential trading partner DOES use them. In fact, I try to figure out exactly which calculators other owners use and have successfully been able to send offers based on that.

Perhaps, but what I'm trying to convey to everyone is to not be the guy taken in by trade calculators. It's a mirage and a bad way to run your team. Anyone who puts too much emphasis on trade calculators for dynasty value is doing it all wrong. They are fun to look at, but in no way do I base my trade on one. Calculators such as KTC put too much emphasis on quantity over quality and too much emphasis on draft picks. I don't think there has ever been a true accepotable value placed on draft picks by trade calculators, taking into consideration a through analysis of that year's draft factored into the trade. Thus it is garbage IMO.

The other issue is the calculator assigning value should be vastly different for a contending team compared to a rebuilding team. Alvin Kamara will have more value for a contender and a lot less value for a rebuilder, for example.

All of this. I use my own franchise points system and allocate value to every asset and it is essentially my own personal calculator. And I factor in all kinds of things and it's really quite subjective no matter how diligent I am about attempting to remove my bias. I find most industry calculators to be interesting and occasionally useful, but ultimately the only reason I monitor them is so that I can be informed when dealing with that guy

Coming from a statistical analysis and physical sciences background, I've been trained to look at datasets from a systems perspective. Calculators are nothing more than rankings quantified, and our sense of whether it's a good calc or a bad calc is largely based on nothing much more than player takes. KTC is sort of interesting because it's crowd sourced but then that's not much more than ADP quantified into a calc. Plus the myopic choice of Keep Cut Trade with 3 rando players is piss poor process from a systems perspective. At the end of the day the calcs are reflections of the human FF takes that feed the inputs.

Being able to reference multiple calcs from multiple sources can paint a solid picture, and assist in negotiations, but if/when the talks stall due to calcs, it ultimately comes down to two owners disagreeing about value regardless. So I really really don't put much stock in them in terms of thinking to myself "am I winning this deal, or should I make this deal?" I don't let calcs get in the way of what my systems approach tells me is a good deal for my team. But I watch ADP, market trends and calcs like a hawk when and if I can so that I can leverage other owner's perceptions to my benefit. Doesn't have to be to their detriment but if I know where the middle ground might lie, then I can maybe make an offer I wouldn't have otherwise.

I've made lots of deals because I was aware of what calcs were saying and what my opponent likely thought of them.

*for the record I don't use calcs in my messages in offers. if someone else brings it up I will consider responding to it*

If I do bring it up it might be casually like "yeah IDK this calc says you're winning this by a free future 3rd, but what do those stupid things know? lemme know what you think"

 

[barackdhouse]

One thing about lowball offers that I send out. You all know how sometimes an owner, maybe you, will counter a bad offer with something so outrageously over the top in your direction that it isn't really a serious response? It's meant to be more of a cheap shot, like hey dude your offer sucked. But if you want to badly overpay here is a counter...

Well... sometimes that outrageous counter is actually less than what I was willing to pay, but because I stared so low... and then I snap accept and they send a message that says "crap I was kidding and didn't think you'd take that" and I'm like "have a nice day"

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

*for the record I don't use calcs in my messages in offers. if someone else brings it up I will consider responding to it*

If I do bring it up it might be casually like "yeah IDK this calc says you're winning this by a free future 3rd, but what do those stupid things know? lemme know what you think"

Same - unless they do. In which case I’ll browse that calc to see where I can gain a competitive advantage with players I feel the calc is overrating or underrating.

 

[barackdhouse]

Calcs are slow to update too. Especially as it relates to moderate to big changes. Whether that's because someone might be out for the remainder of the season, or whether someone is emerging. Super positive reports on rookie or 2nd year players for example. When a vet gets leapfrogged, calcs rarely reflect that reality for about a month. Looking at a calculator trade sim is a snapshot in time that isn't even necessarily accurate of that time. Even if it using God like perfect methodology, the lack of regular updates means the data you're looking at doesn't even represent what the sim itself is designed to represent. So when people refer to these values in negotiations, they may be referencing numbers that are not even intended to be used per se. Most calcs will tell you things are fluid and you should use your own judgement.

 

[JohnnyU]

One thing about lowball offers that I send out. You all know how sometimes an owner, maybe you, will counter a bad offer with something so outrageously over the top in your direction that it isn't really a serious response? It's meant to be more of a cheap shot, like hey dude your offer sucked. But if you want to badly overpay here is a counter...

Well... sometimes that outrageous counter is actually less than what I was willing to pay, but because I stared so low... and then I snap accept and they send a message that says "crap I was kidding and didn't think you'd take that" and I'm like "have a nice day"

I personally am not a fan of sending bad offers because you’re pissed at their offer. I just reject and go pour some tea. To me it’s kind of childish. Even if they do it a lot, how hard is it to just reject? Then if they send you a message you can just say you’re not close with your offers and that you’re not interested in trading right now. That usually ends it. You take the high road and stay civil.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

One thing about lowball offers that I send out. You all know how sometimes an owner, maybe you, will counter a bad offer with something so outrageously over the top in your direction that it isn't really a serious response? It's meant to be more of a cheap shot, like hey dude your offer sucked. But if you want to badly overpay here is a counter...

Well... sometimes that outrageous counter is actually less than what I was willing to pay, but because I stared so low... and then I snap accept and they send a message that says "crap I was kidding and didn't think you'd take that" and I'm like "have a nice day"

I personally am not a fan of sending bad offers because you’re pissed at their offer. I just reject and go pour some tea. To me it’s kind of childish. Even if they do it a lot, how hard is it to just reject? Then if they send you a message you can just say you’re not close with your offers and that you’re not interested in trading right now. That usually ends it. You take the high road and stay civil.

Agreed. At worst, I'll just let their offer sit there with no response at all.

 

[JohnnyU]

One thing about lowball offers that I send out. You all know how sometimes an owner, maybe you, will counter a bad offer with something so outrageously over the top in your direction that it isn't really a serious response? It's meant to be more of a cheap shot, like hey dude your offer sucked. But if you want to badly overpay here is a counter...

Well... sometimes that outrageous counter is actually less than what I was willing to pay, but because I stared so low... and then I snap accept and they send a message that says "crap I was kidding and didn't think you'd take that" and I'm like "have a nice day"

I personally am not a fan of sending bad offers because you’re pissed at their offer. I just reject and go pour some tea. To me it’s kind of childish. Even if they do it a lot, how hard is it to just reject? Then if they send you a message you can just say you’re not close with your offers and that you’re not interested in trading right now. That usually ends it. You take the high road and stay civil.

Agreed. At worst, I'll just let their offer sit there with no response at all.

I can’t do that. I’m one of these guys that can’t let their email inbox get too many on the 1st page. I just reject and keep rejecting until they get the message. I can tire out and outlast anyone. After all, I’m retired and have nothing but time.

 

[barackdhouse]

One thing about lowball offers that I send out. You all know how sometimes an owner, maybe you, will counter a bad offer with something so outrageously over the top in your direction that it isn't really a serious response? It's meant to be more of a cheap shot, like hey dude your offer sucked. But if you want to badly overpay here is a counter...

Well... sometimes that outrageous counter is actually less than what I was willing to pay, but because I stared so low... and then I snap accept and they send a message that says "crap I was kidding and didn't think you'd take that" and I'm like "have a nice day"

I personally am not a fan of sending bad offers because you’re pissed at their offer. I just reject and go pour some tea. To me it’s kind of childish. Even if they do it a lot, how hard is it to just reject? Then if they send you a message you can just say you’re not close with your offers and that you’re not interested in trading right now. That usually ends it. You take the high road and stay civil

agreed. sometimes the counter seems that way, though, even though it doesn't have a message and is just a counter. but it might simply be the other person saying "this is my price" and only seems like a jab. I'll sometimes counter with a pretty intense price but a polite enough note that says something like "I understand if this is too much but this is where I'm at right now. I don't have to make a deal here."

Imagine someone offers you one future 1st that is projected late for Jamaar Chase straight up. I think all of us would consider that a lowball, even if we hedge that there is a possibility the pick ends up early. That still isn't close to enough. For me it wouldn't start a conversation, I would just say no thanks and reject. But, imagine you might actually want to rebuild and are considering moving Chase, maybe you counter with three 1sts (assuming they have it) and a throw in rookie WR that you like. For me personally that is probably about the price I would need to discuss moving him. So if I responded with that, it is at least possible the other person sees it as a jab. Newbie perhaps.

It's also possible three 1sts and a throw in are an autosnap for someone that wants the number 1 FF asset on their team. So to your point and mine, beware responding with emotional counters. If you come back over the top be ready for it to be accepted. And if it is so over the top that they take it as a jab, then that's on them. But, it establishes a line of hey get serious if you're going to make offers for someone like Chase*.

*there is no one like Chase

 

[JohnnyU]

One thing about lowball offers that I send out. You all know how sometimes an owner, maybe you, will counter a bad offer with something so outrageously over the top in your direction that it isn't really a serious response? It's meant to be more of a cheap shot, like hey dude your offer sucked. But if you want to badly overpay here is a counter...

Well... sometimes that outrageous counter is actually less than what I was willing to pay, but because I stared so low... and then I snap accept and they send a message that says "crap I was kidding and didn't think you'd take that" and I'm like "have a nice day"

I personally am not a fan of sending bad offers because you’re pissed at their offer. I just reject and go pour some tea. To me it’s kind of childish. Even if they do it a lot, how hard is it to just reject? Then if they send you a message you can just say you’re not close with your offers and that you’re not interested in trading right now. That usually ends it. You take the high road and stay civil

agreed. sometimes the counter seems that way, though, even though it doesn't have a message and is just a counter. but it might simply be the other person saying "this is my price" and only seems like a jab. I'll sometimes counter with a pretty intense price but a polite enough note that says something like "I understand if this is too much but this is where I'm at right now. I don't have to make a deal here."

Imagine someone offers you one future 1st that is projected late for Jamaar Chase straight up. I think all of us would consider that a lowball, even if we hedge that there is a possibility the pick ends up early. That still isn't close to enough. For me it wouldn't start a conversation, I would just say no thanks and reject. But, imagine you might actually want to rebuild and are considering moving Chase, maybe you counter with three 1sts (assuming they have it) and a throw in rookie WR that you like. For me personally that is probably about the price I would need to discuss moving him. So if I responded with that, it is at least possible the other person sees it as a jab. Newbie perhaps.

It's also possible three 1sts and a throw in are an autosnap for someone that wants the number 1 FF asset on their team. So to your point and mine, beware responding with emotional counters. If you come back over the top be ready for it to be accepted. And if it is so over the top that they take it as a jab, then that's on them. But, it establishes a line of hey get serious if you're going to make offers for someone like Chase*.

*there is no one like Chase

Again, I choose not to act like I’m 14. Nor will I give an inkling that they are bothering me.

 

[renesauz]

Not a fan of the haggle, and really don't like offers that make no sense. When I make an offer, it's one I've thought about and I try to make it where it makes sense for both teams. I've found that most of the deals I do get done on the first offer

 

[JohnnyU]

Not a fan of the haggle, and really don't like offers that make no sense. When I make an offer, it's one I've thought about and I try to make it where it makes sense for both teams. I've found that most of the deals I do get done on the first offer

Mee too