The top 5 Shaun Alexander's by 2010 (1 Viewer)

[Hoss_Cartwright]

The worst thing in fantasy football has to be the short shelf life of running backs. Knowing when to sell on them is one of the toughest and challenging things in fantasy football. One thing we all hate is to get caught with the Shaun Alexanders of the world on our roster when they are finished. Below I list my top 5 SA's. Feel free to disagree, but add your list if you do. I only list players that are currently considered a star on their team, not a second half of a RBBC or 33 year old who is obviously on the decline.

Everyone wants to anoint Larry Johnson 1st with this honor, but I don't think so, not yet. I feel he has at least one 1500 yd season, and two 1100 yd season left him him. That's not to say he isn't close to SA status. It's not like he has extreme mileage on his legs. Only 1143 carries in 61 games over 5 1/2 years. That's 18 carries a game average. This is not taking LJs off the field issues into consideration for this discussion. This topic is about the RBs that will hit the scrap heap because they don't have it anymore.

Edge, McAllister, and Fred Taylor don't count, because they are already at SA status.

Here are my top 5 -

1) Jamal Lewis - talk about mileage, and he's finally 29

2) Willie Parker - not so much with mileage, but he's starting to show signs of durability problems, and he will be 28 in 4 days

3) Larry Johnson - #3 is about right with him. His off the field issues may get to him before SA status

4) LT2 - We're already seeing him decline. Yes, he may still have a great year left in him, but his days of dominating fantasy are over.

5) Frank Gore - I'm going out on a limb with this one. Even though he's only 25, 3 ACL tears (2 college and 1 HS I believe) will finally catch up to him by the time he's 27 or 28.

ETA: As a Ray Rice owner, I can't believe I forgot McGahee. Hell, he is almost SA right now.

 

[MAC_32]

Willis McGahee (if he even counts) and Brian Westbrook

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Willis McGahee (if he even counts) and Brian Westbrook

Westbrook has too much of an all around game to get the SA label right now. He will be valuable well into his thirties IMO. I forgot about McGahee. Hell, he's almost at SA status right now. Good one.

 

[gman74]

The worst thing in fantasy football has to be the short shelf life of running backs. Knowing when to sell on them is one of the toughest and challenging things in fantasy football. One thing we all hate is to get caught with the Shaun Alexanders of the world on our roster when they are finished. Below I list my top 5 SA's. Feel free to disagree, but add your list if you do. I only list players that are currently considered a star on their team, not a second half of a RBBC or 33 year old who is obviously on the decline.Everyone wants to anoint Larry Johnson 1st with this honor, but I don't think so, not yet. I feel he has at least one 1500 yd season, and two 1100 yd season left him him. That's not to say he isn't close to SA status. It's not like he has extreme mileage on his legs. Only 1143 carries in 61 games over 5 1/2 years. That's 18 carries a game average. This is not taking LJs off the field issues into consideration for this discussion. This topic is about the RBs that will hit the scrap heap because they don't have it anymore.Edge, McAllister, and Fred Taylor don't count, because they are already at SA status.Here are my top 5 -1) Jamal Lewis - talk about mileage, and he's finally 292) Willie Parker - not so much with mileage, but he's starting to show signs of durability problems, and he will be 28 in 4 days3) Larry Johnson - #3 is about right with him. His off the field issues may get to him before SA status4) LT2 - We're already seeing him decline. Yes, he may still have a great year left in him, but his days of dominating fantasy are over.5) Frank Gore - I'm going out on a limb with this one. Even though he's only 25, 3 ACL tears (2 college and 1 HS I believe) will finally catch up to him by the time he's 27 or 28.

With what I saw last night Lewis is already there,no need to wait til 2010. If he could not get 100 against that Denver D he may not have a 100 yard rushing game this season. Father time has passed him by

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Giving a top 5 isn't as important in this discussion as why and when these players become SA. If I could become better at this, I could become even better at FF.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Top Factors?

1) Number of Carries combined with decline of burst

2) Age

3) Injury history

4) Lost that love of the game

5) Coaches wanting the young blood

 

[GDogg]

5) Frank Gore - I'm going out on a limb with this one. Even though he's only 25, 3 ACL tears (2 college and 1 HS I believe) will finally catch up to him by the time he's 27 or 28.

Not that it's really all that much better, but he's only had two ACL tears (one in each knee). He's also had shoulder problems.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

5) Frank Gore - I'm going out on a limb with this one. Even though he's only 25, 3 ACL tears (2 college and 1 HS I believe) will finally catch up to him by the time he's 27 or 28.

Not that it's really all that much better, but he's only had two ACL tears (one in each knee). He's also had shoulder problems.

Didn't he tear one knee twice, once in HS and once in college? I know he tore each knee in college. I stand corrected on that if I'm wrong.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Top Factors?1) Number of Carries combined with decline of burst2) Age3) Injury history4) Lost that love of the game5) Coaches wanting the young blood

+ 6) Decreased role and effectiveness in the passing game.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Top Factors?1) Number of Carries combined with decline of burst2) Age3) Injury history4) Lost that love of the game5) Coaches wanting the young blood

+ 6) Decreased role and effectiveness in the passing game.

I agree with your statement about effectiveness in the passing game. That's the reason why I think Westbrook will hold his value well into his thirties. I still cannot fathom why I traded him for a 2nd rd rookie pick his rookie year after drafting him. Sometimes I feel my dog has more sense than me.

 

[Ripleys]

better add "got paid a big contract and became lazy"

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

better add "got paid a big contract and became lazy"

Yeah, that would fall under #4 Lost that love of the game.

 

[Crimson King]

As well as he is playing this year and as much as I respect his talent, I think Portis could be due to hit the wall in the next year or two. He's only 27, but has logged a lot of carries and is getting pounded this year. I think he has a few good years left (this year has obviously been great) but I wouldn't be shocked to see the wheels fall off at any moment.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Where does Clinton Portis fall into this picture?

He has 1910 carries in 93 games for 20+ carries a game, and he's 27 years old. That's a hell of lot more mileage than LJ.

Looking at my 5 factors -

Carries combined with lost of burst - He still has the burst

Age - He will be 29 by Sept 2010

Injury - He missed half the season in 2006, but otherwise, he's good to go.

Love of the game - He's good there also

Coaches - They still love him

It's looking like Portis is going against the grain.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

As well as he is playing this year and as much as I respect his talent, I think Portis could be due to hit the wall in the next year or two. He's only 27, but has logged a lot of carries and is getting pounded this year. I think he has a few good years left (this year has obviously been great) but I wouldn't be shocked to see the wheels fall off at any moment.

Funny I was posting about Portis when you were.

 

[Crimson King]

I agree that he's going against the grain and bucking the trend, but that number of carries has to be somewhat worrisome.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I agree that he's going against the grain and bucking the trend, but that number of carries has to be somewhat worrisome.

I don't know about you, but to me it's looking like "burst" is the most important half of factor #1, which also includes # of carries as well. To me, it's clear that it doesn't matter how many carries you've had as long as you still have the burst. IMO, one exception to that would be an Earl Campbell, or Jerome Bettis type who brings a different set of values to the table.

 

[RC94]

I think Thomas Jones is just about finished. He isn't that great now as it is, but his days as a starter or even a significant part of a RBBC are coming to an end soon IMO. This isn't a great revelation since he is 30 anyway.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

A lot of good posts. I'm hoping we learn something from this thread.....eventually

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Top Factors?1) Number of Carries combined with decline of burst2) Age3) Injury history4) Lost that love of the game5) Coaches wanting the young blood

6) Take too much of a pounding.I hate to say it, as I love watching these guys play, but I think RBs like Marion Barber, Marshawn Lynch, and Steven Jackson will fall off fast in a couple years due to their tenacious running style.

 

[SpurrierisisGod]

Maybe too early for him as he is still young, but I see Reggie Bush on this list soon.

Not a lot of carries, but a lot of touches. Add in Punt return duties and Kim Kar-whatever, and the injuries will pile up.

Does he belong in the tier with the other backs mentioned? No. But he is still a hell of an option in PPR leagues and I see by the time he is 27, he will be on the decline.

 

[Riffraff]

5) Frank Gore - I'm going out on a limb with this one. Even though he's only 25, 3 ACL tears (2 college and 1 HS I believe) will finally catch up to him by the time he's 27 or 28.

Not that it's really all that much better, but he's only had two ACL tears (one in each knee). He's also had shoulder problems.

Didn't he tear one knee twice, once in HS and once in college? I know he tore each knee in college. I stand corrected on that if I'm wrong.

Don't think Gore had any problems in High School, he was top prospect entering college. Addai tore his ACL in high school though.

 

[cubbie5150]

Top Factors?

1) Number of Carries combined with decline of burst

2) Age

3) Injury history

4) Lost that love of the game

5) Coaches wanting the young blood

6) Take too much of a pounding.I hate to say it, as I love watching these guys play, but I think RBs like Marion Barber, Marshawn Lynch, and Steven Jackson will fall off fast in a couple years due to their tenacious running style.

Marshawn hasn't really run w/ a tenacious style this year, especially the past few weeks. He's been dancing, tip toeing through the line, like he's looking to bust a long one every time...

 

[PranksterJD]

Top Factors?1) Number of Carries combined with decline of burst2) Age3) Injury history4) Lost that love of the game5) Coaches wanting the young blood

I'm pretty sure there was a solid analysis thread a long while back that came to the conclusion that # of carries was dramatically less important than age. Specifically, that an uninjured RB could pretty much go until 30 regardless of carry count.Anybody remember or happen to have a blackdot for that one? I feel like it was someone of the beto/wdcrob ilk, rather than a staffer. I'll see if I can dig it up.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Top Factors?1) Number of Carries combined with decline of burst2) Age3) Injury history4) Lost that love of the game5) Coaches wanting the young blood

I'm pretty sure there was a solid analysis thread a long while back that came to the conclusion that # of carries was dramatically less important than age. Specifically, that an uninjured RB could pretty much go until 30 regardless of carry count.Anybody remember or happen to have a blackdot for that one? I feel like it was someone of the beto/wdcrob ilk, rather than a staffer. I'll see if I can dig it up.

What did that thread have to say about # of carries compared to loss of burst? I think we agree that is more important than # of carries or age, depending on running style. For example, you can't compare the same factors for longevity with Marshall Faulk compared to Earl Campbell or Jerome Bettis,

 

[PranksterJD]

Top Factors?

1) Number of Carries combined with decline of burst

2) Age

3) Injury history

4) Lost that love of the game

5) Coaches wanting the young blood

I'm pretty sure there was a solid analysis thread a long while back that came to the conclusion that # of carries was dramatically less important than age. Specifically, that an uninjured RB could pretty much go until 30 regardless of carry count.Anybody remember or happen to have a blackdot for that one? I feel like it was someone of the beto/wdcrob ilk, rather than a staffer. I'll see if I can dig it up.

What did that thread have to say about # of carries compared to loss of burst? I think we agree that is more important than # of carries or age, depending on running style. For example, you can't compare the same factors for longevity with Marshall Faulk compared to Earl Campbell or Jerome Bettis,

I couldn't find it, though I believe it was mostly concerned with measurables, so a subjective concept like burst wouldn't have been accounted for. Agreed completely that each case is different in practice, but the idea was more to build a guideline rather than a rule. As I will try to recreate...In the past 20 years, there have been 12 running backs over 30 that scored over 175 fantasy points ( relative base for a Top 10 finish ). So, out of 200 chances, we get only 12 old-timers. Not a good ratio, regardless of burst. The list....

1	Curtis Martin	rb	2004	31	10	16	371	1697	4.57	12	278.202	Tiki Barber	rb	2006	31	10	16	327	1662	5.08	5	242.703	Ricky Watters	rb	2000	31	9	16	278	1242	4.47	7	239.504	Ottis Anderson	rb	1989	32	11	16	325	1023	3.15	14	213.105	James Brooks	rb	1989	31	9	16	221	1239	5.61	7	208.506	Mike Anderson	rb	2005	32	6	15	239	1014	4.24	12	200.607	Priest Holmes	rb	2004	31	8	8	196	892	4.55	14	197.908	Marcus Allen	rb	1993	33	12	16	206	764	3.71	12	190.209	Garrison Hearst	rb	2002	31	9	16	215	972	4.52	8	182.9010	Jerome Bettis	rb	2004	32	12	15	250	941	3.76	13	182.2011	Emmitt Smith	rb	2000	31	11	16	294	1203	4.09	9	182.2012	James Brooks	rb	1990	32	10	16	195	1004	5.15	5	181.30

However, since 1960 there have only been 38 RBs that lasted past 1800 carries. This makes a bit of sense since RBs turn over so quickly, but the interesting part here was that, very generally, if a back went over 1800 he didn't fall over at that mark ( unless he was old already ), but continued for another few hundred carries at least. If mileage mattered a so significantly, then I'd expect to see a lot more guys with 6-8 years of experience and 1800-2000 carries. In fact, the only guy in that carry range who has less than 9 years experience is Portis, who's still active and having one of his best seasons. Doesn't sound like a recipe for falling off to me.

NAME 	POS 	YRs 	G 	RSH 	RSHYD 	YD/RSH 	RSHTD 	FANT PT1	Emmitt Smith	rb	1990--2004	226	4409	18355	4.16	164	3213.952	Walter Payton	rb	1975--1987	190	3838	16726	4.36	110	2876.403	Curtis Martin	rb	1995--2005	168	3518	14101	4.01	90	2348.904	Jerome Bettis	rb	1993--2005	192	3479	13662	3.93	91	2087.205	Barry Sanders	rb	1989--1998	153	3062	15269	4.99	99	2473.006	Marcus Allen	rb	1982--1997	221	3022	12243	4.05	123	2629.407	Eric Dickerson	rb	1983--1993	146	2996	13259	4.43	90	2119.358	Edgerrin James	rb	1999--2008	135	2957	11997	4.06	80	2078.209	Franco Harris	rb	1972--1984	173	2949	12120	4.11	91	2040.7010	Tony Dorsett	rb	1977--1988	173	2936	12739	4.34	77	2169.3011	John Riggins	rb	1971--1985	175	2916	11352	3.89	104	2040.2012	Thurman Thomas	rb	1988--2000	182	2877	12074	4.20	65	2181.2013	Eddie George	rb	1996--2004	142	2865	10441	3.64	68	1734.8014	Marshall Faulk	rb	1994--2005	176	2836	12279	4.33	100	2731.4015	Ricky Watters	rb	1992--2001	144	2622	10643	4.06	78	2035.1016	Corey Dillon	rb	1997--2006	150	2618	11241	4.29	82	1847.4017	Warrick Dunn	rb	1997--2008	174	2573	10602	4.12	48	1853.3018	Ottis Anderson	rb	1979--1992	182	2562	10273	4.01	81	1849.5019	LaDainian Tomlinson	rb	2001--2008	119	2507	11201	4.47	119	2325.2520	O.J. Simpson	rb	1969--1979	135	2404	11236	4.67	61	1787.8021	Fred Taylor	rb	1998--2008	135	2370	10993	4.64	61	1745.6022	Jamal Lewis	rb	2000--2008	115	2287	9698	4.24	58	1517.5023	Tiki Barber	rb	1997--2006	154	2216	10448	4.71	55	1965.1024	Earl Campbell	rb	1978--1985	115	2187	9407	4.30	74	1465.3025	Shaun Alexander	rb	2000--2008	122	2186	9452	4.32	100	1769.2026	Terry Allen	rb	1991--2001	132	2152	8614	4.00	73	1495.5027	Earnest Byner	rb	1984--1997	211	2095	8261	3.94	56	1712.6028	Roger Craig	rb	1983--1993	165	1991	8189	4.11	56	1748.0029	Gerald Riggs	rb	1982--1991	129	1989	8188	4.12	69	1384.4030	Ahman Green	rb	1998--2008	137	1989	8970	4.51	57	1613.6031	Herschel Walker	rb	1986--1997	187	1954	8225	4.21	61	1800.4032	Stephen Davis	rb	1996--2006	143	1945	8052	4.14	65	1368.6033	Clinton Portis	rb	2002--2008	93	1910	8710	4.56	70	1516.1534	Larry Csonka	rb	1968--1979	146	1891	8081	4.27	64	1298.1035	Mike Pruitt	rb	1976--1986	152	1844	7378	4.00	51	1259.8036	Ricky Williams	rb	1999--2008	91	1841	7395	4.02	49	1258.1037	Garrison Hearst	rb	1993--2004	126	1831	7966	4.35	30	1237.1038	Rodney Hampton	rb	1990--1997	104	1824	6897	3.78	49	1126.60

Really thats a bunch of inferred garbage, since there isn't really enough data to do any deep analysis and no way to come up with a conclusive result. It is interesting ( to your point about Bettis vs. Faulk ) is that the list is mainly smoother backs with some bruisers scattered in.

 

[PranksterJD]

I bumped a comparable thread for you here.

 

[thatguy]

Although the Giants are limiting his touches, I can't help but think Jacobs belongs in this discussion.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I bumped a comparable thread for you here.

I really enjoyed reading that thread, thanks

 

[Da Guru]

The worst thing in fantasy football has to be the short shelf life of running backs. Knowing when to sell on them is one of the toughest and challenging things in fantasy football. One thing we all hate is to get caught with the Shaun Alexanders of the world on our roster when they are finished. Below I list my top 5 SA's. Feel free to disagree, but add your list if you do. I only list players that are currently considered a star on their team, not a second half of a RBBC or 33 year old who is obviously on the decline.Everyone wants to anoint Larry Johnson 1st with this honor, but I don't think so, not yet. I feel he has at least one 1500 yd season, and two 1100 yd season left him him. That's not to say he isn't close to SA status. It's not like he has extreme mileage on his legs. Only 1143 carries in 61 games over 5 1/2 years. That's 18 carries a game average. This is not taking LJs off the field issues into consideration for this discussion. This topic is about the RBs that will hit the scrap heap because they don't have it anymore.Edge, McAllister, and Fred Taylor don't count, because they are already at SA status.Here are my top 5 -1) Jamal Lewis - talk about mileage, and he's finally 292) Willie Parker - not so much with mileage, but he's starting to show signs of durability problems, and he will be 28 in 4 days3) Larry Johnson - #3 is about right with him. His off the field issues may get to him before SA status4) LT2 - We're already seeing him decline. Yes, he may still have a great year left in him, but his days of dominating fantasy are over.5) Frank Gore - I'm going out on a limb with this one. Even though he's only 25, 3 ACL tears (2 college and 1 HS I believe) will finally catch up to him by the time he's 27 or 28.

With what I saw last night Lewis is already there,no need to wait til 2010. If he could not get 100 against that Denver D he may not have a 100 yard rushing game this season. Father time has passed him by

I think that Lewis has a couple of years left as a short yardage guy, just not a feature guy.

 

[theprince]

The worst thing in fantasy football has to be the short shelf life of running backs. Knowing when to sell on them is one of the toughest and challenging things in fantasy football. One thing we all hate is to get caught with the Shaun Alexanders of the world on our roster when they are finished. Below I list my top 5 SA's. Feel free to disagree, but add your list if you do. I only list players that are currently considered a star on their team, not a second half of a RBBC or 33 year old who is obviously on the decline.Everyone wants to anoint Larry Johnson 1st with this honor, but I don't think so, not yet. I feel he has at least one 1500 yd season, and two 1100 yd season left him him. That's not to say he isn't close to SA status. It's not like he has extreme mileage on his legs. Only 1143 carries in 61 games over 5 1/2 years. That's 18 carries a game average. This is not taking LJs off the field issues into consideration for this discussion. This topic is about the RBs that will hit the scrap heap because they don't have it anymore.Edge, McAllister, and Fred Taylor don't count, because they are already at SA status.Here are my top 5 -1) Jamal Lewis - talk about mileage, and he's finally 292) Willie Parker - not so much with mileage, but he's starting to show signs of durability problems, and he will be 28 in 4 days3) Larry Johnson - #3 is about right with him. His off the field issues may get to him before SA status4) LT2 - We're already seeing him decline. Yes, he may still have a great year left in him, but his days of dominating fantasy are over.5) Frank Gore - I'm going out on a limb with this one. Even though he's only 25, 3 ACL tears (2 college and 1 HS I believe) will finally catch up to him by the time he's 27 or 28.ETA: As a Ray Rice owner, I can't believe I forgot McGahee. Hell, he is almost SA right now.

I think the most relevant names here are LT2 and Gore. To be like Shaun A, you need to be a high first-rounder who busts. The Westbrook call made later in the thread is an interesting one.

 

[The Real Deal]

#1 LT

#2 LT

#3 LT

#4 LT

#5 LT

The reasons are very obvious. One more average year in 2009 and then put a fork in him by 2010

 

[FFdork]

First of all 2-3 years is an eternity in the NFL so good luck predicting. I mean, any RB that's 28 or older should be in some level of decline by that point, but to what degree?

Secondly, I think it's bad to try to generalize about these things. For instance, I think the Shaun Alexander situation was all about 4) Lost that love of the game. I'm not so sure that Edge isn't largely a case of the same thing. That is, I'm not sure that his skills are that different from '05. Knowing what's in a guy's heart is going to be notoriously hard to predict, although in the case of Alexander there were a lot of rumblings about his character.

Other guys like Emmit Smith and Eddie George gave it their all until their bodies just gave out on them. The age 30 barrier is as good of a line of demarcation as any, but as has already been pointed out there have been some notable exceptions. Curtis Martin's '04 season wasn't that hard to see coming if you watched his preseason games (extrapolating a lot from the preseason is dangerous, but you can certainly get a read on whether an old guy still has 'it'). He was available in about the 5th round on average in my drafts that year.

It's also important to remember that while there may only be a handful of top 10 backs over 30 in the last 20 years, there have been quite a few more that were quality contributors as RB2s or solid backups--'old' guys that get way undervalued are a huge asset to building a good fantasy team. Of the older guys nominated, I think LT & Westbrook will perform at a high level for as long as their bodies let them. I think Portis is probably that kind of guy too.

Injuries are hard to predict. If you're going to write off a guy because of perceived injury risk due to a history, you're potentially going to miss out on some huge seasons by guys like Gore. Fred Taylor is basically the originator of the 'injury prone' label, one of the biggest myths in fantasy football, which has caused him to be a great value for a bunch of years running (ironically in terms of this discussion he may have hit his wall this year). The only injury stuff I worry that much about involves words like "chronic" or "bone on bone."

Anyway, I'm rambling but my point is that while it's good to have these discussions, this stuff isn't easy to predict. Pretty soon every veteran RB will get nominated on this list.

 

[FFdork]

#1 LT#2 LT#3 LT#4 LT#5 LTThe reasons are very obvious. One more average year in 2009 and then put a fork in him by 2010

See, this is what I'm talking about. I haven't gotten to see that many of his games, but he was dealing with a toe injury that will negatively affect any RB. As he's gotten healthier, he's seems to have performed pretty well. He could be a huge value in '09 if everyone is thinking like you.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

Hoss: Good topic!

What's hard is that instead of this yearly performance regression:

12 TDs, 1500 total yards then

10TDs, 1250 total yards then

8 TDs, 1000 total yards

they go more like this:

12 TDs, 1500 total yards then

6 TDs, 900 total yards then

out of NFL/unsigned Free Agent

It's hard to guess the rapid decline year.

Upcoming possibilities:

Jamal Lewis

LT2

Edge

Thomas Jones

McGahee

 

[Interseptopus]

I don't think LT is a good candidate. LT has dominated for many years. Alexander had what, 5 years of doing well? LT is working on his 8th year.

In order to be the "next SA" you need to do well for an extremely short period of time and then fall off the face of the earth. Alexander looked like a superstar when he broke the record for TDs, and then he just trailed off. How many RBs have done that? Not many. Looking at everyone listed so far, everyone has had legitimate careers. Just becuase they may trail off soon people are quick to lump them in with the shmuck that is Alexander.

I would say Willie Parker may be the next Alexander. He showed signs of greatness and then dropped off the face of the earth. Granted he's hurt this year, so it's hard to judge.

Larry Johnson is a potential candidate. He was the #1 RB in fantasy and could have had LT-like dominance, but injuries, off the field issues, and just plain sucking has caught up to him.

Possibly Rudi Johnson. He looked like a top 10, 5 RB for a couple years in Cincinnati and now look at him.

Kevin Jones?

Other than that I don't know who else would really qualify as the next Alexander. Definitely not LT IMO. No way does he qualify for this. He'll put in 2x as many productive seasons than Alexander before he shows signs of slowing down. LT is perhaps the best RB talent in the league the last 10 years has seen, and the next 10 years will see. His ability to catch, run, throw even makes him a threat every time he touches the ball. I can't recall ANY RB with that kind of impact on the game for such a long period of time. No way he's lumped in with a scrub like Alexander

 

[Faust]

Portis is a solid candidate to start tapering off this year, especially given that:

He historically fades in the second half

He has shouldered a significant amount of the workload so far

He has a tougher remaining SOS

Sorry - more of a sell high then what this thread was looking for.

 

[maxwjom0]

Here's one for you....Marion Barber. I love watching the guy play, but with his ultra bruising style and a spry Felix Jones waiting to replace him, MB may be on the down swing in 2 years.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

Who has a dominant line that will either get old, injured, or break up due to free agency and expose a great producing RB as only a "meh" RB? Some guys have the talent to overcome a bad line (LT, at least in his prime) while the loss of Hutch exposed SA and was the start of his collapse.

 

[Ariakis]

I suspect McGahee may be a buy low given everyone's opinion of him. He just turned 27 so I'd think the down year will extend his usefulness another season.

Portis has a lot of carries which gives some risk for next season. This is probably going to be his best year going forward though.

Westbrook should be fine for another few years.

LT could go either way I suppose ... the next few games will show if he's back of not but he is starting to get nicked up more frequently.

 

[RudeDog]

I just keep it simple. When YPC drop under 3.6 or 3.7 he's not going to be with my team.

 

[FantasyTrader]

I just keep it simple. When YPC drop under 3.6 or 3.7 he's not going to be with my team.

Probably some of the most sound advice I've ever read. It sounds as though everyone is trying to learn how to time the fantasy stock market. Problem is, we're dealing with human beings. Not cars or homes or Swiss timepieces.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Who has a dominant line that will either get old, injured, or break up due to free agency and expose a great producing RB as only a "meh" RB? Some guys have the talent to overcome a bad line (LT, at least in his prime) while the loss of Hutch exposed SA and was the start of his collapse.

Not sure if it holds true currently, but at the beginning of the year - the Redskins didn't have a single starting O-Lineman under the age of 30, several with significant injury history. And they've managed to stay relatively healthy this year.

 

[FUBAR]

Who has a dominant line that will either get old, injured, or break up due to free agency and expose a great producing RB as only a "meh" RB? Some guys have the talent to overcome a bad line (LT, at least in his prime) while the loss of Hutch exposed SA and was the start of his collapse.

That's exactly why I thought of LJ first. Willie Parker may fit too.

 

[PranksterJD]

I just keep it simple. When YPC drop under 3.6 or 3.7 he's not going to be with my team.

Probably some of the most sound advice I've ever read. It sounds as though everyone is trying to learn how to time the fantasy stock market. Problem is, we're dealing with human beings. Not cars or homes or Swiss timepieces.

Sound advice maybe, but when YPC is at 3.7, then the player's worth is largely gone anyway, and you're relying on name recognition. By the time Shaun Alexander hit 3.6, you couldn't sell him for a pack of jelly beans. How are the Edge and Fred Taylor owners feeling right about now?When a back is already struggling, you've lost half the trade value. Guessing when YPC is about to **become** 3.7 is crucial.

 

[FantasyTrader]

I just keep it simple. When YPC drop under 3.6 or 3.7 he's not going to be with my team.

Probably some of the most sound advice I've ever read. It sounds as though everyone is trying to learn how to time the fantasy stock market. Problem is, we're dealing with human beings. Not cars or homes or Swiss timepieces.

Sound advice maybe, but when YPC is at 3.7, then the player's worth is largely gone anyway, and you're relying on name recognition. By the time Shaun Alexander hit 3.6, you couldn't sell him for a pack of jelly beans. How are the Edge and Fred Taylor owners feeling right about now?When a back is already struggling, you've lost half the trade value. Guessing when YPC is about to **become** 3.7 is crucial.

That's my point. Guessing when YPC is about to **become** 3.7 is a fool's errand. Who knows? Shred an ACL at age 28 and that's a good bet. Lost two Pro Bowl O-linemen at 29 and that's a good bet too. Have a top 3 O-line and an All-Pro FB at age 31 and...you get the point. There's simply too many variables to sit down and, with a straight face, have a discussion about what might happen to the RB community 2-3 years from now. How are Edge and Fred Taylor owners feeling right now? I can only speak for myself but that answer is, pretty darn good! Let me ask you this question in return - How are the Fred Taylor owners who decided to "time the market" on a 30 yr old RB by selling high on him back in '06 feeling? They missed out on back2back 1,110+ yd 5 TD seasons. I know WR's are a bit different than RB's, but I've been trying to "sell high" on Terrell Owens in dynasty for two straight offseasons and thankfully all of the other owners in my league keep saving me from myself, because they don't want to overpay for an over-the-hill WR. And on the other hand, I was perfectly content with Torry Holt as my #2 this year and he's literally grown old in front of our eyes this year. I think maybe the answer is you just make decisions about your roster as things are today. And then make decisions a month from now based on the way things are. By trying to fortune tell when the wheels will fall off, I think you leave too many points on table in the longrun.

 

[Ned]

I just keep it simple. When YPC drop under 3.6 or 3.7 he's not going to be with my team.

Probably some of the most sound advice I've ever read. It sounds as though everyone is trying to learn how to time the fantasy stock market. Problem is, we're dealing with human beings. Not cars or homes or Swiss timepieces.

Its fun to think this stuff up and fun to think that theories like these will work, but in the end of the day these are individuals. Don't over think this stuff.

 

[Ariakis]

I'd want no part of FWP at this point. Two straight injury plagued seasons, his replacement(s) already rostered, and another offseason surgery. The difference of course is that he's been productive when he's played but if he's losing a step with mounting injuries chances are the decline is near.