The Value of Freeing Up a Roster Spot? (1 Viewer)

[alanivy]

It is commonly debated whether or not Rodgers, Brady, and Brees are justifiable picks in the first round. One thing that VBD and other analysis of this subject do not seem to take into account, however, is that with one of these “Big 3” QBs you could skip drafting a backup, and just worry about the 1 bye week later on in the year. It’s not just an issue of who that specific extra RB/WR you’d be able to add in your draft is, but also having that extra roster spot to be able to rotate waiver wire selections each week until someone sticks. It’s a similar issue when talking TE. If you draft one of the top 7 or so TEs you’re probably safe just carrying the one, but if you wait until late to get your TE you’ll probably want to draft 2 to increase your odds of having one that hits.

Just how valuable to you is freeing up the extra roster spot? Does league size impact the decision?

 

[todisco1]

Why wouldn't you have to draft a backup QB? Hasn't Rodgers suffered multiple concussions? Didn't Brady tear his ACL and miss an entire season? Are you saying it's impossible for any of the top QBs to get hurt? Peyton Manning never missed a game... until he missed an entire season. I don't think drafting any of the top QBs allows you the freedom to ignore a backup. It's a strategy one could employ but I would never assume someone can't get hurt.

 

[Instinctive]

I employ this strategy specifically when drafting a top QB. It is exactly the benefit of taking a top QB.

Protip: Do the a similar thing if you plan to play the waiver wire for defenses and kickers - don't draft one. I typically come out of a draft in my 14 team, 16 per roster redraft with 1 QB, 1 TE, and a combination of 14 RB/WRs - occasionally I have a 2nd QB - only if value falls a ways and I like where I'm at.

I think the value of a roster spot is relatively high - especially when there's a decent chance a QB or two emerges on the wire for you to snag early in the year - Dalton, Newton, Vick, Orton, Thigpen, Shaun Hill, and Carson Palmer (among others) are all guys who emerged from the wire in recent seasons.

I'd much rather have an extra roster spot for a guy like Ryan Williams or Rashad Jennings (who have ADPs around backup QB territory I believe) than have the replaceable production of Josh Freeman sitting behind Brees all year.

 

[chickensoup]

I view it this way: the roster spot you have is not a significant enough reason to bump a player like Rodgers or Brees/Brady over a RB early until you get to 9th or 10th in the first round (I'm taking it McCoy/Rice/Foster/Matthews/MJD dispite holdout/DMC/Megatron are gone).

However if i ended up with Rodgers at say the 9th pick I would not personally draft a backup. Whats the point? You already have your eggs in the QB basket, you might as well draft more RB, your likely shortcoming, as lottery tickets. Maybe I take a Dalton as my backup in the third from last round at most. If Rodgers goes down, its not like if DMC goes down. Noone is emerging from waivers to make up for the best QB in the leagues numbers, not even remotely close.

 

[alanivy]

Dodds is projecting Vick to play 13 weeks. If you take his projections and get 13 weeks of Vick + 3 weeks of backup Carson Palmer, you get the equivalent of Brees (in my league's scoring format anyway). For now ignore your personal opinions of these players, just take his projections at face value. You can get the same production at QB for: Pick 10 (Brees), or for pick 40 (Vick) and pick 119 (Palmer). Which one offers more value? Your team at these three positions could look like:

Option 1:

Drew Brees

Frank Gore

Felix Jones

or

Option 2:

Darren McFadden

Michael Vick

Carson Palmer

At first glance I like Option 2 better. Same QB production and McFadden is probably significantly better than Gore. Felix Jones (or his equivalent: Pierre Thomas or Ronnie Hillman) is just a late round flier, so nothing too exciting. The real value to me is not Felix Jones, but that it's an extra roster spot. If Felix doesn't pan out, you can drop him and get the hot RB/WR of the week off the waiver wire. With Option 2, you're stuck holding that roster spot with a backup QB all year.

I haven't settled on my opinion yet, which is why I'm seeking input. I traditionally would be all over Option 2, but with my league size (only 10 players) and my history of being one of the most active on the waiver wire, I feel Option 1 tugging at me.

The above is just an example. Please don't get caught up on the specific players involved as I could have easily given an example with a different set of players. And I'm not just talking early QBs here, but top 7 TEs too.

 

[mjr]

I ignored the backup QB spot the year Brady tore his ACL. Man, was that a LONG season of starting WW QBs like Tyler Thigpen... I'll never risk that again (although I would do this with the TE position without much of a problem).

Id much rather have the servicable backup QB. Maybe you end up with a slightly better #2 or #3 RB or WR by neglecting the backup QB spot, but you can pretty much achieve landing pretty good #2/3 RBs or WRs just the same, and with much less risk, by picking up guys who are in line to see more targets/carries, sleeper picks and other such players. I just don't see what would warrant the gamble when there are lower risk options that could yield similar results.

As for opening up the roster spot to make the extra way for WW moves, every year I draft at least 1 guy who doesn't pan out, no matter how well I draft. I don't need to bring my backup QB position into the mix to make that kind of room.