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The worst play call in NFL history (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter maf005
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lod01
Footballguy
Yes he does. Now he hasn't cashed in like Flacco has but both guys did the same thing in crunch time. Both should have opted out instead of throwing the game losing INT.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I agree. At first I thought "well sure he's going to take the fall...he's untouchable right now and Bevell wants an HC job." But after thinking it through a bit I think he really is tarnishing his legacy with this mea culpa.
Old Smiley
Footballguy
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Let me try and put this in fantasy terms...Carroll, Bevell, whoever called that play...they essentially drafted for need instead of drafting best player available. I think both guys even admitted they let the defense dictate that play call instead of going with their best assets in some form of a run play with Lynch or Wilson; assets no team in this league has been able to stop for the past 2 years, with 3 tries from 3 feet out.
cowboyz1
Footballguy
Absolutely will damage his career. Players, owners, fans can never trust them again. They'll always wonder in a critical situation if they are going to go Seattle Stupid on you. The only thing that should have happened is the moment, I mean the moment the play call was being called through the mic, Carroll should have slapped the headset off him and grabbed the call sheet while telling security to take him back to the hotel. I mean slap the stupid out of him for even thinking of calling anything but Beast Mode left, right or up the middle. There really is NO justification, explanation,or situation that could possible explain going away from Lynch on 2nd and 1 to win the SB. You HAVE to give him the football there.
It's not like you have a Dez, or Megatron, Gronk or a super star play maker at WR. No they built this team around power on offense, a running QB and serviceable WR's. There is absolutely no way in hell you don't say "look fellas, we need 1 yard to win the SuperBowl, I'm trusting Beast Mode and my O line to get the job done".
If you're Seattle any other call but a run in that situation, is stupid.
G
General Tso
Guest
Mike Francesa is absolutely crucifying Carroll for that call. Says it's the "worst play all in the history of sports". At one point Mike asked, "What are the odds of Lynch running it in there from 1 yard out? 100%? 90%?"
No Mike, we actually have those odds based on facts. It was 20% this year. Lazy reporting yet again.
No Mike, we actually have those odds based on facts. It was 20% this year. Lazy reporting yet again.
Old Smiley
Footballguy
Arsenal of Doom
Footballguy
RUSF18
Footballguy
Lazy would be taking a sample size of five and using that as a probability.
He had just taken the ball from the 5 to inside the 1. Give me a break.
lod01
Footballguy
Flipside:
The Pats allowed opponents to score 81% of the time in power situations (runs on 3rd/4th & <2, or w/i 2 yds of goalline). Dead last in NFL.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Lynch wasn't "inside the five" ... he was at the 1/2 yard line. And he was 17/20 in all 3rd/4th down short yardage plays this year.
GoFishTN
Footballguy
As normal 538 misunderstands. It's not that they passed the ball, it's the stupid pass play they called. Throw a fade then run Lynch.
That "analysis" is pretty weak. They want to adjust the numbers for Gostkowski and the Pats offense, but nothing for Seattle's D. I also completely disagree that they could only have run twice at most.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
He bases things on the assumption that Seattle had to plan a pass at some point since they only had 30 seconds and with that time couldn't run 3 times. That may be true but it's Seattles fault they put themselves in that situation. Seems like they either A. Thought Belichick was gonna call a timeout and when It didn't happen they weren't prepared and ran 40 seconds off the clock or B. Wanted to run the clock down to nothing and placed clock management over actually scoring a TD.
G
General Tso
Guest
Flip flip side: not sure of the the exact numbers but I heard last night that there were something like 126 passes this year from the 1 yard line with ZERO interceptions.
Arsenal of Doom
Footballguy
They had high and low end assumptions for both run and pass outcomes so there should be some control in there for that. The reality is that either running or passing in that situation the Seahawks were incredibly likely to win and neither choice would result in a 100% certain outcome.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Get beat with your best pitch. Lynch is the Seahawks' best pitch.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Classy? I think pretty much every HC takes the blame in this situation, pointing fingers isn't a good look. You're the coach, and the OC is a staff member. You have to take responsibility or you look like a tool.
cowboyz1
Footballguy
Regardless of stats and analysis or what ever. In that game, 2nd and goal from inside the 1, with the Pats defensive line on the field as late as you can get in a game, the only call that makes sense is to give the football to the guy you call Beast Mode and bet that given the stakes, your guy and his O line is going to find a way to get that yard. I would have bet that a big ### ring and a big ### check and the accolades of being back to back SB champs would sufficiently motivate Beast Mode and his O line to get the job done there. To not give him at least two chances to do so is criminal. That simple.
cstu
Footballguy
The most important thing is that the Patriots would have had a 1% chance of scoring a TD with 30 seconds. At worst it's a tie game that goes to OT.
Arsenal of Doom
Footballguy
This is why I said I think running twice (or maybe three times) in that situation was an easier position for a coach to defend, although it would still be questioned if went that way and failed.
I hate Pete Carroll more than any other coach in the league, so it doesn't bother me in the least that people are tearing him apart. I just think the "worst call in history" stuff is way off and a classic example of outcome bias.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I could almost live with a pass play if I were a Seattle fan there, just not the one they called. Going shotgun with pretty much an empty backfield telegraphed it was a passing play. They should have had either a rollout run/pass option (as NE could not tackle Wilson at all all night) or lined up in a power formation and then hit a TE sneaking off the line.
While just going straight to Beast Mode certainly could have worked, if the Pats went all out run blitz and stuffed him for a loss, SEA would have had to burn their last timeout and maybe had to get three yards instead of one. So they would have had to pass the next play or run the risk of the clock running out if they didn't score on a running play.
I still think the best option is a safer play than one that has any chance of a turnover, and the result bore that out.
While just going straight to Beast Mode certainly could have worked, if the Pats went all out run blitz and stuffed him for a loss, SEA would have had to burn their last timeout and maybe had to get three yards instead of one. So they would have had to pass the next play or run the risk of the clock running out if they didn't score on a running play.
I still think the best option is a safer play than one that has any chance of a turnover, and the result bore that out.
this pic shows that if the ball is thrown earlier...or better (low or to the left shoulder) perhaps Lockett has a catch and jump, run or push to get into the endzone...or an incompletion. it's a matter of inches and Butler read the play (thanks to good coaching/practice) and then acted on it. just think if it bounces off Butler's shoulder pad or he doesn't catch the ball resulting in an incompletion...3rd and goal with the clock stopped at ~20 sec and one TO remaining for SEA. this is what Carrol and company were probably thinking...TD or incompletion, then two plays to punch it in. in the previous 109 attempts this season to throw a TD from the 1-yard line, ZERO have resulted in an INT. then again, 4 things could happen on a pass play and only one of them is a good outcome for the offense (sack, incomplete, reception, or INT)
game of inches...
game of inches...
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You can make statistics say whatever they want, and he obviously wanted them to say something specific. He gives them a bonus for theoretically stopping the clock with an incompletion on 2nd down so they'd have to anticipate either a run or a pass on 3rd down, when the same thing would have happened with a run since they likely would have called time out. Etc.
Of course both were likely to result in a win and neither were 100%, but you really have to twist things to say the probabilities were the same (like he did). Again, it isn't just the pass/run decision- it's the time management (which led to his assertion that they could only run it twice more, which I don't necessarily agree with), the specific pass play called, etc.
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snogger
Footballguy
Bold part works great on a fade route.. If it's there throw it, otherwise throw it out of bounds.. Had that been the call and it somehow got intercepted, say a crazy bounce, then the "WTF" responses wouldn't have been as much...
IMO, that has better chance of an incomplete, then a slant route towards the middle of the field where the Defense is already stationed expecting a run..
cstu
Footballguy
Not recency bias - they were on the 1 yard line with a line that was dominating the LOS and a RB who refuses to go down.
There might have been worse in less important games but never at the end of a Super Bowl like that.
Worst call in history.
franchise punter
Footballguy
Reminded me of 2009 Super Bowl in a somewhat similar situation. With like 10 seconds left in the first half, Kurt Warner took the snap, turned and immediately blindly chunked it in Jerome Harrison's direction to result in a 100-yard pick 6.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
By those pics, it also looks like a fake pump and Wilson runs into the end zone on the right side.
cstu
Footballguy
Bad outcome, but not a bad call since the Steelers were #1 in YPC allowed, the Cardinals RB was a 30 yo Edge, and the Cardinals had used their last timeout. I would have preferred to go with my Pro Bowl QB in that situation.
Actually they switched to the 3 WR set after the first down play. That right there was the biggest mistake. They had absolutely no need to switch personnel but they did. I really believe when the hoodie saw them switch to that personnel he was like OK, don't call timeout lets see if they will actually pass.Touchdown There said:
If the Seahawks had left the same personnel on as first down, I think there is a very good chance the Pats do use a TO. IF they don't the Seahawks should have just run the play with just under 40 seconds left to keep their options open if they don't score on the second down run.
The faithful moment really came came when Bevell decided to switch personnel. With the personnel that both teams had on the field there is a good chance Lynch would have have got stuffed or even lost yards, if Wilson audibled to a run. Wilson really couldn't audible to a run play. The only option he had was to call a timeout which would have sucked or he could have just tried to scramble around like he often does.
The only pass option that had any chance looking how the play was defensed was a pass to Lynch in the flat but even that would have been pretty low %. But at least it wouldn't have been an interception.
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PatsWillWin
Footballguy
I don't think anyone gets to be an NFL O by calling plays to impact "credit." Asinine.fred_1_15301 said:
And hey, even if he was, Wilson can, you know, RUN.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
That was also a terrific run by Lynch on the play before, he almost got it in there. I know the stats on Lynch from 1 this year (5 carries, made it in once?) but Lynch in that situation, in that game, with fame, fortune, all time legend in front of him, I think he could have carried 10 men into the end zone. I think the staff may have consciously chosen Wilson here, hate to say it.cstu said:
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Why would we want to give the pats any credit for a good play on the ball. Clearly just horrible play calling.gump said:
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I'm surprised butler didn't run straight for the sidelines to get a gauge
With the best short yardage back in the NFL? Give me 3rd and 1.davearm said:
Assuming Brady has about a 35 percent chance of getting them in FG range, then about an 80 percent chance to hit the FG and a 50 percent win probability in OT. Patriots would have about a 14 percent win probability.
Giving Lynch two shots from the one has to be greater than 90 percent. I like the prospect of icing the game and taking Brady completely out of the picture.
G
General Tso
Guest
Not only did they practice it, but Belichik apparently interceded after the play was run (with Garaffolo playing the role of Russell Wilson) and specifically coached Arrington and Butler on how to jump the route. This is why the Patriots are great. It has nothing to do with deflated footballs, Spygate, or any other BS. Belichik simply outworks everyone else and has an amazing attention to detail.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
I just think people are worrying about the clock way too much in this situation. I understand the desire to do so - believe me, as happy as I was when the Patriots scored the go-ahead TD, I knew that there was way too much time on the clock to get comfortable at all. But 60 seconds? 45 seconds? Sorry, your only goal is to score a TD.
And having said that, you know, running the ball is still the better call because that's another way to drain the clock. Carroll's explanation is unfathomable. Let's "waste a play" by calling a relatively high risk pass play that if it doesn't work, will help the Patriots by protecting the clock.
Unbelievable.
And having said that, you know, running the ball is still the better call because that's another way to drain the clock. Carroll's explanation is unfathomable. Let's "waste a play" by calling a relatively high risk pass play that if it doesn't work, will help the Patriots by protecting the clock.
Unbelievable.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I notice you didnt mention Brady in there....thank god.
This team is all Bill....pure genius. The difference in NFL players is so negligible (note guys off the street getting 100 yards in the Superbowl) the ultimate sustainable advantage is coaching.
Which makes me cry as a Bills fan....when Brady (average today) retires the run will not end
The Duff Man
Footballguy
The explanation is sheer garbage. IF killing time was the plan, a rollout would have been called. The play as ran took just a couple seconds.
If there was more time, he would have let them score. You could see the wheels turning as Belicheck was watching the clock, thinking about a timeot, watching what Seattle was setting up. Once the clock got below 40 seconds you could see Belicheck kind of just fall into playing defense and hope for a mistake.Maurile Tremblay said:
