The Worst stats Fantasy writers use (1 Viewer)

[Max Power]

Below is part of a write up By Dave Richard Senior Fantasy Writer at CBSSportsline.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/fantasy/story/10439270

In Week 8, 91 percent of CBSSports.com owners started Frank Gore. The same total started Steve Smith. He hasn't played yet, but 61 percent of CBSSports.com owners will start Travis Henry vs. Green Bay on Monday night. Chad Johnson was started in 99 percent of leagues. Thomas Jones was active for 84 percent of his Fantasy owners. Forty-seven percent started Marvin Harrison even though they knew he was hurt!

Dumb Fantasy owners, or are we just too swept up in going with the players with the big reps?

It seems like I can not read an article on Sportsline or Yahoo that doesnt have at least one paragraph like this in it. Even Sunday mornings as I watch the ESPN Fantasy show and Hear Mr. Roto say the same things. I think the whole % owned and % started stats are basically worthless. Yet these writers can't help but to put them in articles and draw conclusions from them.

Why are they worthless? The obvious answer is all leagues are different. The amount of teams, starting rosters, scoring settings, ect... 4-8 teams leagues wont be targeting the same players as 12-16 team leagues. Starting rosters play another huge role in who starts and who needs to be owned.

Moving on to the infamous yahoo public leagues. I'll admit, I'm guilty of drafting teams prior to my major drafts just to see where guys go and then never pay attention to that league again. In fact, I have a whole profile full of unmanaged teams. I know of one league where my backs are Maroney and McAllister and that hasnt changed all year. Too many leagues in yahoo for sure and I assume CBS just go unmanaged.

I read the Monday "who should I target on the waiver wire" articles and these experts list guys who I should pick up that are unowned in ___% of leagues. For example Selvin Young, unowned in 52% of leagues. Then I get the Matthew Barry commentary about how he cant understand why Young is unowned in so many leagues. Is he serious?

I dont mind the writers using the % stats, but please dont try and justify your points by using these. Granted I know its not a big deal, Its just one of those things that rub me wrong.

/Rant

 

[mightyeskimo]

Not to mention the fact that a lot of people are just plain dumb. I don't care about the tendencies and conclusions based on a sample of dumb people. Just not my bag.

 

[swirvenirvin]

100% agreed, I hate reading or listening to them about still unowned in 60% of the leagues etc.. Those leagues are jokes without people even watching or paying attention. I have no problem them giving out sleepers and who they wthink will be a good start, but it is dumb to tell me the percentage of leagues from espn they are owned.

Probably 50% of those leagues are free and people do not pay any attention to what is going on.

 

[Buckle]

I don't know what value they have since like most of you said with leagues being different in size and rules, but I think it's an interesting number. I'm always curious about the leagues that do have Frank Goreor Larry Johnson rostered for example. It's hard to believe that leagues like that exist.

 

[TommyGilmore]

These writers work for the companies that they are writing about.

 

[Hobbes]

% of teams that are undefeated - 5%

% of teams that are winless - 5%

Unfortunately they don't just tell you who the first group is starting...

 

[King of the Wolfies]

I hate when they give obvious starts and sits. Every time I hear that its a good week to start LT or to sit some 3rd string player, I just want to climb thru the tv and strangle the idiot. Use your connections and give use something useful that isn't obvious to 99% of CBS and 92% of yahoo owners.

 

[SuperJohn96]

I read 57% of the OP's post.

 

[sheckiec]

Wasted 2% of my waking hours today reading this post.

 

[NoFBinLA]

I hate when they give obvious starts and sits. Every time I hear that its a good week to start LT or to sit some 3rd string player, I just want to climb thru the tv and strangle the idiot. Use your connections and give use something useful that isn't obvious to 99% of CBS and 92% of yahoo owners.

See but here's the thing - and I grant you, the obvious starts and sits are annoying - but they are part of big corporations. Big corporations function with the mentality that they need to appeal to the widest base - and therefore keep things watered and dumbed down. Trust me I work in Hollywood and it's run by the same corporations. They are more worried that someone might tune out because they didn't get it or needed it explained than being authentic or original.They don't care about you or me. They worry about the casual fan who MIGHT play SOME fantasy football - and more importantly who MIGHT spend cash on their advertisers.It's why I come to FBGs, why I read the smaller indie sites - they aren't afraid to be themselves and aren't afraid to take a few risks now and then.And they aren't doing it to be different - they use logic that some of these coporate sites can't manage - when THEY take a risk, it's often something insane like LT is a bad play this week (I don't have a link to that one, it's a pure hypothetical example). They say somethign just to be 'edgy' - rather than use logic to say 'hey this guy seems liek a good play, here's why he isn't.'Anyway, that's my opinion.

 

[Paddy O'Seanessy]

Wasted 2% of my waking hours today reading this post.

at least they were hours at work so I didn't have to pay for them.While it is true that the only useful "ww" statistic is the true/false as to whether a guy is available in your league, this analysis is simply wrong.All the variables -- size, abandonment etc -- are constants over the sample. Fifty-two percent non-ownership of Selvin Young is greater than the 42% of some other guy. If you're a technician and tracking the movement of those numbers you can claim to be in the company of millions of traders who use price & volume to predict stocks, futures and options.That the OP doesn't understand the use of such data and it irks him should fall under don't-ask-don't-tell. That he admits screwing other fellow competitors by regularly abandoning leagues to which he commited is just another prediliction that causes me to lose interest in his opinion.

 

[Aerial Assault]

I'll admit, I'm guilty of drafting teams prior to my major drafts just to see where guys go and then never pay attention to that league again. In fact, I have a whole profile full of unmanaged teams.

Spirit of honest competition down?