Agreed, while im sure someone who watches all of a players games would have an advantage on someone who only watched one, it doesnt mean #%&$ if that guy doesnt know what he is looking at."I watch the games"..which is great, don't get me wrong. However, unless you are on a NFL scout level, I hardly see how that makes any difference. We all watch football games.
I think this is a VERY important point. I believe a great many situations in the NFL are impossible to predict with any certainty. What you need to do, to win consistently, is play the odds. Focus on the situations you believe ARE easier to pinpoint and actionable, and then let the chips fall where they may. Now, to be fair, we're paid on the site to take stands on every situation; but we try to balance that by adding context to our rankings and strategies, as well as providing lots of distinct voices instead of one synthesized set of rankings and projections.Two things come to mind
1) The my projections/draft listing, etc are better than your projections/draft listngs.
2) Refusal to admit that certain situations are wait and see or too murky to do anything but guess. Feels like "I don't know" is some how unmanly.
Not sure i agree with this one, if you dont believe this, you should find a new hobby.Two things come to mind
1) The my projections/draft listing, etc are better than your projections/draft listngs.
2) Refusal to admit that certain situations are wait and see or too murky to do anything but guess. Feels like "I don't know" is some how unmanly.
I definitely agree on the hometown thing being double edged. As a Maroney owner, I find it interesting that the overall feeling towards Maroney from New England fans is negative. Sure, the guy fumbles too much and has a career yards per carry number of < 4. But he's on my team! Doesn't that count for anything?The hometown thing can be double edged. Some towns roast and toast. I guess it's just a matter of a fan base's preference to be informed or hugged.DropKick said:The hometown fan thing is the biggest drag on the board. Yes, we know your a fan of <fill in the blank> and hate <fill in the blank>. We got it. Stick to the fantasy topics. We already know <your team> stinks.
I do quite fine without thinking that I have all the answers on all the players every year. Some guys cross the line from good general competitivemess to wanting to be the smartest guy on the board.Not sure i agree with this one, if you dont believe this, you should find a new hobby.Two things come to mind
1) The my projections/draft listing, etc are better than your projections/draft listngs.
2) Refusal to admit that certain situations are wait and see or too murky to do anything but guess. Feels like "I don't know" is some how unmanly.
Whole-heartedly agree with the bolded red text above by Jason.....I love to read and occasionally interact on threads so that I can improve not only my knowledge, but also my perspective. That is why I enjoy doing the Spotlights so much. It forces me to research some and then voice my opinions. Then it also provides me the opportunity to compare that to what others say and then either defend or adjust as needed.I think we all have biases. How can you be a FAN (short for fanatic) of this caliber and not have preconceptions?
I think the real key, and what I think we all should strive for, is leveraging the Shark Pool and our other conversations as a means of testing our theories. If you're not open to being swayed the other way on a player, I can't fathom why you would bother listening to The Audible or hanging out in the Shark Pool or reading our site's content, or sitting around a bar talking football with your friends.
I have a detailed set of projections up and running by the end of April every year, because that's part of my role on the site. That means, by definition, I have preconceived expectations for most players before we get into the heart of the preseason. So if I used the next few months solely to defense my April expectations, I would a) be doing Joe & David a huge disservice, b) be doing our subscribers a disservice, c) doing myself a huge disservice. I aim to have my theories debated and challenged, so that I can hopefully improve upon the initial set and -- by the time our drafts are in full gear -- they'll be that much better and more thoroughly conceived.
I also think we all get to the end zone following a different path. I PERSONALLY find most beat writer "reporting" to be useless. But there are some beat writers who are more balanced and analytical than others. The Audible beat writer tour is a great chance to hear from some of those guys/girls. I also think you need to recognize what you're getting. As Sean (MOP) said, beat writers are paid TO WRITE. Even when there's not much there. So the trick is to understand what's their opinion, and what's based on factual observation or commentary from someone who matters...i.e., a scout or coach or personnel exec involved in the situation.
Thats not what you said though, i dont think anyone believes they have all the answers. I just think by the time you sit down to do your draft, you should believe that your rankings are better than everyone elses.I do quite fine without thinking that I have all the answers on all the players every year. Some guys cross the line from good general competitivemess to wanting to be the smartest guy on the board.Not sure i agree with this one, if you dont believe this, you should find a new hobby.Two things come to mind
1) The my projections/draft listing, etc are better than your projections/draft listngs.
2) Refusal to admit that certain situations are wait and see or too murky to do anything but guess. Feels like "I don't know" is some how unmanly.
I probably don't see my points 1 and 2 separate items, but parts of the same basic problem of letting one's ego get in the way. I believe that I have good system of playing the entire game of fantasy football and that projections are a part of it, but I don't have to win my projection/rankings over yours when it is only a part of the battle. Even with near perfect knowledge of how players will play in given NFL season you still have manage your roster, work the waiver wire, and start the correct line-ups. then there is oh so humbling luck thing.Thats not what you said though, i dont think anyone believes they have all the answers. I just think by the time you sit down to do your draft, you should believe that your rankings are better than everyone elses.I do quite fine without thinking that I have all the answers on all the players every year. Some guys cross the line from good general competitivemess to wanting to be the smartest guy on the board.Not sure i agree with this one, if you dont believe this, you should find a new hobby.Two things come to mind
1) The my projections/draft listing, etc are better than your projections/draft listngs.
2) Refusal to admit that certain situations are wait and see or too murky to do anything but guess. Feels like "I don't know" is some how unmanly.
Disagreeing != taking offense or being defensive. I'm not defensive about anything, and don't know why I would have the slightest cause to be seeing as there's no way in hell that point was even marginally directed in my direction. I just think it's flat-out wrong. It's dumb to discount someone's opinion of a player just because they own that player, because there had to be a reason why they owned that player in the first place. Nobody is born onto someone's fantasy team. Everyone has to be acquired at some point.Whoa Charlie Brown...both of you. I was speaking in generalities, if anything both of you just made my point even more crystal clear. You both took offense to something that was simply my opinion. And it happens a lot. A thread topic about a certain player in redraft is created and maybe not everyone is bullish on the 2010 outlook and suddenly the white knight on a pony comes trotting in and takes the castle by storm, and coincidentally they own the player in dynasty or perhaps just drafted them in redraft leagues. Why do you two act so defensive...I might as well have posted Gainmarco and SSOG in my first example. It's all in fun, just poking at you guys but I think you jumped the shark just a bit on my first example. This thread seems to be garnering some interest, haven't read thru all the posts yet. I appreciate you two chiming in though, duly noted.
You've seen plenty of examples of what Misfit is saying... you mean examples like the one you just quoted?I have been on these message boards for a long time and MisfitBlondes is not wrong...I have seen plenty of examples of what Misfit is saying.Wrong...MisfitBlondes said:One of the reasons I don't like participating/contributing in SP threads is that if I have a differing opinion on a player, someone will either laugh at my opinion or just say "you're wrong." I find there's too many people who believe they are always correct and will not entertain thoughts from different perspectives. The bullish mentality makes the SP a hostile environment for many and it isn't worth the effort to try to discuss anything.
That seems like an awfully delusional way of going about your business. There are tens, maybe hundreds of millions playing fantasy football, and only ONE OF THEM will have the "best" rankings in any given year. I'd have to be ignorant of reality to believe I was that guy. For what it's worth, when I enter March Madness pools, I also assume that I'm probably going to get a game or two wrong, too.I think a big problem is American culture. Everything in America is all "USA, USA, We're #1, We're #1" all the time. It's all about being the best. When LSU and USC split the national championship, neither fan base was happy with it. It didn't matter if they had a championship, they had to be the ONLY team with a championship- they had to be the best. In America, you're either the best or you're a failure.Sweden has a word that's sort of uniquely Swedish called "lagom". It translates very roughly into "just enough, but not too much", and it's pretty much the national word of Sweden, it's pretty much their entire cultural identity. The goal isn't to be the biggest, fastest, strongest, best... it's to be big enough, fast enough, strong enough, good enough. While an American would say "USA! We're the best!", someone from Sweden might say "Sweden! We're pretty good!". And, to be quite honest, I think the Swedish guy has the right attitude. I don't think my rankings are the best ever. I think they're pretty good, but I think I could still stand to improve them a lot. I think there are a lot of people out there who have a better understanding of football, a better eye for talent, a better ability to predict, and I think their rankings would probably wreck mine... and I'm okay with that. The goal is to be good enough. I'm not trying to win the WCOFF, here, I'm just trying to build a strong enough team to win my league with a few lucky breaks. Heck, I'm not even arrogant enough to automatically assume that I have the best rankings in my league. My leaguemates have been playing for a long time and they definitely know what they're doing, too. If I had that much contempt for them that I was always convinced that I was better/smarter/righter than them at all times, I'd find another league. I'm going to continue trying to improve my rankings and trying to get them a little bit closer to "the best"... but I'm okay with the fact that I'll never come anywhere close.Thats not what you said though, i dont think anyone believes they have all the answers. I just think by the time you sit down to do your draft, you should believe that your rankings are better than everyone elses.
Very good follow up which recognizes the risk management nature of FF and the at times the unfair situation which staff is put under by having to project/comment on unknown situations.I think this is a VERY important point. I believe a great many situations in the NFL are impossible to predict with any certainty. What you need to do, to win consistently, is play the odds. Focus on the situations you believe ARE easier to pinpoint and actionable, and then let the chips fall where they may. Now, to be fair, we're paid on the site to take stands on every situation; but we try to balance that by adding context to our rankings and strategies, as well as providing lots of distinct voices instead of one synthesized set of rankings and projections.Two things come to mind
1) The my projections/draft listing, etc are better than your projections/draft listngs.
2) Refusal to admit that certain situations are wait and see or too murky to do anything but guess. Feels like "I don't know" is some how unmanly.
I think the staff gets hit with this one sometimes. Some of the guys who do draft analysis get heavy access to a couple of third/fourth tier guys and all of the sudden they are the ultimate sleepers.I could be reading into this a bit, but I have a feeling if they had the same level of access to ALL of the prospects they'd be a little more realistic in their analysis.No offense guys, it's only natural I think.Having met the player in person. Sometimes NFL guys come out with the USO. Ive seen mancrushes before but the guys I know who have shook fitz's hand while deployed for example, well larry could die tomorrow and theyd still draft him for the next ten years.
Disagreeing != taking offense or being defensive. I'm not defensive about anything, and don't know why I would have the slightest cause to be seeing as there's no way in hell that point was even marginally directed in my direction. I just think it's flat-out wrong. It's dumb to discount someone's opinion of a player just because they own that player, because there had to be a reason why they owned that player in the first place. Nobody is born onto someone's fantasy team. Everyone has to be acquired at some point.Whoa Charlie Brown...both of you. I was speaking in generalities, if anything both of you just made my point even more crystal clear. You both took offense to something that was simply my opinion. And it happens a lot. A thread topic about a certain player in redraft is created and maybe not everyone is bullish on the 2010 outlook and suddenly the white knight on a pony comes trotting in and takes the castle by storm, and coincidentally they own the player in dynasty or perhaps just drafted them in redraft leagues. Why do you two act so defensive...I might as well have posted Gainmarco and SSOG in my first example. It's all in fun, just poking at you guys but I think you jumped the shark just a bit on my first example. This thread seems to be garnering some interest, haven't read thru all the posts yet. I appreciate you two chiming in though, duly noted.
First off, im not competing against all those people, i am competing against 11 others. Is it delusional to think i am the best at every draft, maybe, but going into something with confidence that you are the best is the only way to go. Hypothetically speaking, lets say one of the guys in your league has won more championships than you over the last few years. Lets also assume you have an opportunity to get your hands on his current rankings/cheatsheet the day of your draft. Would you use his cheatsheet and drop your own player list for it?(assuming you have his permission)That seems like an awfully delusional way of going about your business. There are tens, maybe hundreds of millions playing fantasy football, and only ONE OF THEM will have the "best" rankings in any given year. I'd have to be ignorant of reality to believe I was that guy. For what it's worth, when I enter March Madness pools, I also assume that I'm probably going to get a game or two wrong, too.
I think a big problem is American culture. Everything in America is all "USA, USA, We're #1, We're #1" all the time. It's all about being the best. When LSU and USC split the national championship, neither fan base was happy with it. It didn't matter if they had a championship, they had to be the ONLY team with a championship- they had to be the best. In America, you're either the best or you're a failure.
Sweden has a word that's sort of uniquely Swedish called "lagom". It translates very roughly into "just enough, but not too much", and it's pretty much the national word of Sweden, it's pretty much their entire cultural identity. The goal isn't to be the biggest, fastest, strongest, best... it's to be big enough, fast enough, strong enough, good enough. While an American would say "USA! We're the best!", someone from Sweden might say "Sweden! We're pretty good!". And, to be quite honest, I think the Swedish guy has the right attitude. I don't think my rankings are the best ever. I think they're pretty good, but I think I could still stand to improve them a lot. I think there are a lot of people out there who have a better understanding of football, a better eye for talent, a better ability to predict, and I think their rankings would probably wreck mine... and I'm okay with that. The goal is to be good enough. I'm not trying to win the WCOFF, here, I'm just trying to build a strong enough team to win my league with a few lucky breaks. Heck, I'm not even arrogant enough to automatically assume that I have the best rankings in my league. My leaguemates have been playing for a long time and they definitely know what they're doing, too. If I had that much contempt for them that I was always convinced that I was better/smarter/righter than them at all times, I'd find another league. I'm going to continue trying to improve my rankings and trying to get them a little bit closer to "the best"... but I'm okay with the fact that I'll never come anywhere close.
It's the only way to go? Then I must not have been playing fantasy football for the last decade. I promise you, you can enter a draft thinking "I've done all the prep I can and I think that I've got a very good set of rankings, the best I can possibly compile with my own personal limitations, but I understand that the other guys are thinking the exact same thing and they aren't such terrible players that I'm blithely certain that I've got the best rankings in the room". In fact, you can take that attitude and still win championships. Lots of them. Really.I stand by my claim that if you are honestly that certain that you always have the best rankings in the room during the draft, perhaps you should stop playing a bunch of family leagues with your special cousin Jimmy and start looking for competition more on your level.First off, im not competing against all those people, i am competing against 11 others. Is it delusional to think i am the best at every draft, maybe, but going into something with confidence that you are the best is the only way to go.
We're all guilty of this, myself included.Preconceived notions. Once someone has a mindset of Player X will be the next stud, it normally takes a lot to change that opinion. It's part stubbornness, part the determination to be right. See: Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, Matt Leinart.
By "only way to go" i mean the best way to go, and the best is the only way for me.Im in 10+ leagues of all kinds, and yes, some family and friends are in a couple of my leagues. Ill compete against you any time you like. Im about to jump into a few more Phenoms, you in? ETA, how many of your leaguemates can you name that will likely have better rankings than you going into your draft(s)? One more thing, do you like Jonathan Stewart?It's the only way to go? Then I must not have been playing fantasy football for the last decade. I promise you, you can enter a draft thinking "I've done all the prep I can and I think that I've got a very good set of rankings, the best I can possibly compile with my own personal limitations, but I understand that the other guys are thinking the exact same thing and they aren't such terrible players that I'm blithely certain that I've got the best rankings in the room". In fact, you can take that attitude and still win championships. Lots of them. Really.I stand by my claim that if you are honestly that certain that you always have the best rankings in the room during the draft, perhaps you should stop playing a bunch of family leagues with your special cousin Jimmy and start looking for competition more on your level.First off, im not competing against all those people, i am competing against 11 others. Is it delusional to think i am the best at every draft, maybe, but going into something with confidence that you are the best is the only way to go.
Preconceived notions. Once someone has a mindset of Player X will be the next stud, it normally takes a lot to change that opinion. It's part stubbornness, part the determination to be right. See: Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, Matt Leinart.everyone is guilty of this to some extent, I find the more successful people in FF, dating, and stocks are those who are better able to push aside preconceived notions. Too many of us have an inherent need to be "right" and appear brilliant to others. Most don't even realize this is the case.
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Likely? No clue. In my favorite leagues, there are 3 guys where I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if they wound up with better rankings than me in any given year. There's another two guys who have had a lot of success that I personally think has just been smoke and mirrors, but I recognize the possibility that I simply don't understand their genius. If I were betting on who had the best rankings, and the choices were "me" or "the field", I'd take the field every single year. Not because I'm not confident in my abilities, but because I know that my leaguemates are talented guys with a boatload of experience in this hobby, and I wouldn't disrespect them with the assumption that I'm head and shoulders above them. That'd be hubris, plain and simple. I think I'm good, but as the saying goes... "the other guys get paid, too".Of course, I'm in another league with a bunch of old college buddies, and I'd be absolutely SHOCKED if I didn't have the strongest rankings of the bunch year after year, simply because I devote far more time and effort to the hobby than anyone else does. But that league's all about the camaraderie, not the competition.ETA, how many of your leaguemates can you name that will likely have better rankings than you going into your draft(s)?
I understand what you are saying, there are a few guys in a few of my leagues that i know will have a set of rankings that are comparable to mine in quality, possibly better(though i doubt it)Likely? No clue. In my favorite leagues, there are 3 guys where I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if they wound up with better rankings than me in any given year. There's another two guys who have had a lot of success that I personally think has just been smoke and mirrors, but I recognize the possibility that I simply don't understand their genius. If I were betting on who had the best rankings, and the choices were "me" or "the field", I'd take the field every single year. Not because I'm not confident in my abilities, but because I know that my leaguemates are talented guys with a boatload of experience in this hobby, and I wouldn't disrespect them with the assumption that I'm head and shoulders above them. That'd be hubris, plain and simple. I think I'm good, but as the saying goes... "the other guys get paid, too".Of course, I'm in another league with a bunch of old college buddies, and I'd be absolutely SHOCKED if I didn't have the strongest rankings of the bunch year after year, simply because I devote far more time and effort to the hobby than anyone else does. But that league's all about the camaraderie, not the competition.ETA, how many of your leaguemates can you name that will likely have better rankings than you going into your draft(s)?
We wouldnt be here on this board with type A guys.Can you imagine losing your championship game by a couple points because while breaking a long run, AD decided that 40 yards was more than enough, so he steps out of bounds on his way to an 80 yard TD run?I tolerate you Type A competitive guys because the country needs you but I'm much more of a lagom guy.
:( This is one of the reasons I very rarely participate in the Shark Pool (and FBG as a whole) now.MisfitBlondes said:One of the reasons I don't like participating/contributing in SP threads is that if I have a differing opinion on a player, someone will either laugh at my opinion or just say "you're wrong." I find there's too many people who believe they are always correct and will not entertain thoughts from different perspectives. The bullish mentality makes the SP a hostile environment for many and it isn't worth the effort to try to discuss anything.
MisfitBlondes said:One of the reasons I don't like participating/contributing in SP threads is that if I have a differing opinion on a player, someone will either laugh at my opinion or just say "you're wrong." I find there's too many people who believe they are always correct and will not entertain thoughts from different perspectives. The bullish mentality makes the SP a hostile environment for many and it isn't worth the effort to try to discuss anything.This is one of the reasons I very rarely participate in the Shark Pool (and FBG as a whole) now.
Based on the fact you understand that everyone, incuding yourself is/can be biased gives you an advantage at being objective.I believe in the dynasty league bias. I think once a young player is added to your roster, there's a tendancy to defend and overvalue him much like a homer would defend a player on his favorite team. I have Hardesty on my dynasty team. Naturally I think he's going to get the majority of the carries. not because I have any real reason to believe that, but because I wish it to be so. It's more about wishful thinking, and as someone else said, I'm more likely to believe the things I read that support my wishful thinking. It's even more true with off the field stuff. When you have a Dolphin fan practically frothing at the mouth to defend Roethlisberger's actions (for example), you can be pretty sure you've got a Big Ben dynasty owner on your hands. You'd see this all the time with Terrell Owens back in his Eagles days. Even after he had thrown 2 QBs under the bus and gotten suspended from his team, he had his defenders. You could always tell they had him on their dynasty team(s). They flat wouldn't accept that the guy was a bad teammate and a team cancer. It would be bad for them if that were the reality, so they refuse to accept that reality. Certainly some people are better at being objective than others.
Disagreeing != taking offense or being defensive. I'm not defensive about anything, and don't know why I would have the slightest cause to be seeing as there's no way in hell that point was even marginally directed in my direction. I just think it's flat-out wrong. It's dumb to discount someone's opinion of a player just because they own that player, because there had to be a reason why they owned that player in the first place. Nobody is born onto someone's fantasy team. Everyone has to be acquired at some point.Whoa Charlie Brown...both of you. I was speaking in generalities, if anything both of you just made my point even more crystal clear. You both took offense to something that was simply my opinion. And it happens a lot. A thread topic about a certain player in redraft is created and maybe not everyone is bullish on the 2010 outlook and suddenly the white knight on a pony comes trotting in and takes the castle by storm, and coincidentally they own the player in dynasty or perhaps just drafted them in redraft leagues. Why do you two act so defensive...I might as well have posted Gainmarco and SSOG in my first example. It's all in fun, just poking at you guys but I think you jumped the shark just a bit on my first example. This thread seems to be garnering some interest, haven't read thru all the posts yet. I appreciate you two chiming in though, duly noted.
I actually agree with you, but the reason someone talks more fondly of players on their team is to raise their value for trades; why would you want to raise the value of a player you are trying to acquire?And my rebuttal to this nonsense is dismissing someone's opinion simply because they own that player on their team.Which do you think happens more frequently?1) An owner drafts/trades for a player and THEN thinks he's a good player and has talentor2) An owner thinks a player has talent and THEN drafts/trades for him?It's completely absurd to think an owner is "biased" about a player just because he owns him. The fact that he owns him is simply the result of the owner liking him. Now, are there owners that can't admit the fault of that decision and continue to argue for a player years after the fact? Yeah, I guess, but those owners are few and far between. Most owners don't keep a player on their roster year after year if they aren't performing well. In fact, most of those owners drop the player and then become instant arguers against them. How many ex-owners of guys have we seen saying "I don't want to deal with this headache" or "I'll let someone else deal with so and so"? All the time. I'd be much more wary of an owner arguing vehemently for a player and NOT owning him on one of their teams. They are either full of it or aren't good enough owners to trust their own opinions and go after the players they want. So sorry, I completely disagree with #1 as something that clouds an SP owner's judgment.1. Owning the player in any dyansty league. Has an owner ever posted that they were wrong when they made a pick or that the players that fill their rosters are not full of talent and going to rule the world?
Sure, but why would I come here to do that? I understand there are probably a few people that may do so, but I doubt the majority of owners want to sell a player then come to the Shark Pool and hype the player up just so that maybe a couple owners from that particular league will happen to read it. First of all, that's a lot of work that probably yields minimal results. Secondly, if an owner was doing that on a regular basis, I'm sure the owners in the league would pick up on it making it useless. Finally, I'm always hesitant when an owner talks up how great a player is only to put him on the market.I actually agree with you, but the reason someone talks more fondly of players on their team is to raise their value for trades; why would you want to raise the value of a player you are trying to acquire?And my rebuttal to this nonsense is dismissing someone's opinion simply because they own that player on their team.Which do you think happens more frequently?1) An owner drafts/trades for a player and THEN thinks he's a good player and has talentor2) An owner thinks a player has talent and THEN drafts/trades for him?It's completely absurd to think an owner is "biased" about a player just because he owns him. The fact that he owns him is simply the result of the owner liking him. Now, are there owners that can't admit the fault of that decision and continue to argue for a player years after the fact? Yeah, I guess, but those owners are few and far between. Most owners don't keep a player on their roster year after year if they aren't performing well. In fact, most of those owners drop the player and then become instant arguers against them. How many ex-owners of guys have we seen saying "I don't want to deal with this headache" or "I'll let someone else deal with so and so"? All the time. I'd be much more wary of an owner arguing vehemently for a player and NOT owning him on one of their teams. They are either full of it or aren't good enough owners to trust their own opinions and go after the players they want. So sorry, I completely disagree with #1 as something that clouds an SP owner's judgment.1. Owning the player in any dyansty league. Has an owner ever posted that they were wrong when they made a pick or that the players that fill their rosters are not full of talent and going to rule the world?