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I never said that he won't have a decent season. I don't think he's a great QB, but he has a good group of receivers and he'll be throwing a lot. That doesn't mean he's not overrated.
Where did I say that? I never said he's incapable of playing at a high level. However, I think he's overrated (particularly in dynasty) and I think he'll be a disappointment for owners expecting the next great QB.
In August drafts, Antsports has him as the #10 QB, ahead of Brady, Plummer, Delhomme, Brooks, Brees, and Pennington.I don't really have a problem with the idea that Palmer might be a top-10 QB this year. But I think it should be obvious that, with the possible exception of Pennington, he is less likely to be top-10 than the list of guys above, who have already performed at a top-10 level and have no significant questions about their situation.What crack addict leagues are these?lol @ people freaking on the "he did great in his last X games last year" mentality.
That's true, but there have been many other young players who have shown glimpses of potential only to eventually disappoint. How about Chad Pennington? He closed out 2002 (his first season as a starter) on an absolute tear. He's had injury issues since then, but when he's played he hasn't been nearly as prolific as he was during that stretch. Owners who took him high after the 2002 season expecting the next great FF QB have no doubt been a bit disappointed by his play.My point is that Palmer is still an unknown. He had a mediocre 2004 season that included a bit of a hot streak near the end of the year. That doesn't mean he's turned the corner or that he's going to be a great player.
ebf,you are better than this.
Tom Brady has finished 9th 11th and 10th the last three years. If projections are for Palmer to finish 12th, I guess I'll take the potential upside with him in his second year as a starter than Brady and his lack of upside (never finished better than 9th). I'd take Palmer over Brady and I don't smoke crack.In August drafts, Antsports has him as the #10 QB, ahead of Brady, Plummer, Delhomme, Brooks, Brees, and Pennington.I don't really have a problem with the idea that Palmer might be a top-10 QB this year. But I think it should be obvious that, with the possible exception of Pennington, he is less likely to be top-10 than the list of guys above, who have already performed at a top-10 level and have no significant questions about their situation.
I think you are stereotyping all of us that think Palmer has upside. I don't care where he was picked in the draft, I like his game and environment. Jon Kitna finished as the 8th ranked QB in 2003 in this system. I see no reason to think that Palmer couldn't be just as good, regardless of where he was drafted 3 years ago.
Good post Bob. It took a while to read it but I like it. Just seems like there's a lot of reaching to support an arguement but it doesn't make much sense. If someone has a valis reason for feeling Palmer will not do well then let'em speak up but l;ike you said, so far there really hasn't been anything to support a negative outlook outside of his overall numbers.Now I'm interested in other's opinions about the INT's. After reviewing his stats and noticing 6 INT's were from 2 games I've been wondering if that tends to lead to better performance or is the an indicator of continued problems? If anyone can address that please do.ebf,you are better than this.
when i earlier mentioned that scouts ACCOUNTED for the fact that he didn't have a stellar first three years at USC, and STILL made him first pick overall (meaning despite what you saw in college, they saw the same games and saw development and progression where you saw none), you trotted out the hackneyed leaf cliche... this is the old saw that people like to throw out to cast suspicion on the scouts.
can you really say that after giving it some hard thought, you find more parallels and similarities between how the respective careers of leaf & palmer have unfolded to date, than differences?
i know you know a lot about recent drafts, comp players, skills sets, that you are capable of making a VASTLY improved comp player than leaf for the purposes of this discussion... but if we are going to let it degenerate to the level of comparing all prospects that are in doubt to leaf, that is a pretty blunt instrument, & imo does far more to obfuscate matters than clarify them.
we could go around & around on this all day... everything you have said could be flipped around... just because he had some good games at end of last season doesn't necessarily mean he is stud in making... but conversely, just because you found him lacking in development first few years in college, doesn't mean he is incapable of development for the rest of his career?
no one really answered a question i had above... he had four different OCs in as many years. in your opinion would this be good for a players development to have constant disruption, turmoil & lack of continuity? are you indifferent to this proposition, do you think it would be good for him?
a lot of QBs wouldn't even be good enuf to start for major div I program like USC all four years. so maybe if they had somebody better when he was a freshman & soph, he wouldn't have played, & we wouldn't be having this discussion.
also, we really have no idea if palmer's college career might have turned out far differently if he had the benefit of chow's tutelage for all four years.
of course we don't know if the way palmer finished is indicative of the light going on, & if he will be able to start this season where he left the last one off. that is an act of judgement, which requires imagination. just like chad johnson in his second year, when he finished strong. maybe it foreshadowed impending stardom (as many thought), or perhaps you thought he got lucky with few big games?
but that is the point... you have to make these kind of decisions... wait to long in redraft or dynasty leagues, & the arch conservative projectionist who chalked it up to luck or few flukey games misses out.
i hear you saying repeatedly he only had a few good games like a mantra... is there some arbitrary number where you would draw a line in the sand & say... NOW he is a good player.
even though he was second year player, this was his first year starting... he is only been in 16 games. how many great games was he supposed to have... 5... 10? wouldn't this be a pretty draconian standard to hold any other first year starting QB to... why do so in this case if we wouldn't in others?
i think how he finished last season has a lot more to do with projecting forward from 2005 onwards than what he did when he was 19-20 years old. it is easy to dismiss his close last year as just a few good games. but there is a pattern going on here... wasn't the same thing said about his senior year... in that case, he also got lucky with a few good games at the end.
another way to interpret this is in his last two seasons as starter (senior year at USC & first time starter in second year at CIN)... he finished the season strong.
when it is pointed out that he was third in TDs & fourth in yards over second half, it sounds like there is some resistance to acknowledging that he had a pretty good second half... if he just got lucky with a few big games, than i am guessing we could say the same about QBs 5-10 in the second half... probably they just got lucky with a few good games, too... right?
usually i appreciate your comp players when we are talking about rookies & up 'n coming players, but i completely fail to see how you insinuated koren robinson & william green into the discussion?
if you honestly think carson palmer is going to run afoul of the team due to... A) repeated team violations, being habitually late for team functions, DUIs, etc OR B) getting stabbed in the back by his GF/wife and having a bag of pot discovered by the police on investigation, than i respect you are entitled to your opinion, but i think you would be way off the mark with such concerns.
it would be as relevant to link palmer to rae carruth & say, look at how his career ended, so i guess palmer probably won't be very good either. HUH?
as far as it being easy to have a few big games (any old QB could get 9 TDs in three games, right?)... lets make this an apples to apples comparison. we aren't talking about peyton manning, c-pepp & mcnabb here... we definitely aren't talking about those guys after being in the league for 5+ seasons.
so who are some other young guns taken in recent drafts.
in class of 2004, did eli manning or rothliesberger throw for 9 TDs in any three game span?
how about class of 2003... did leftwich ever thrown for 9 TDs in any three game span over his first two seasons.
class of 2002... have harrington or carr ever thrown for 9 TDs in a three game span in any of their three seasons?
well now we are having to go back close to a half decade to find a comp player... wouldn't you agree maybe throwing for 9 TDs in a three game span for a first year starter is more of a distinction than you were making it out to be, & not to be scoffed at or just casually dismissed & tossed off as if it was a insignificant, negligible achievement.
this might suggest that if he was able to do it in his first year as starter where so many others failed, maybe he does have some special qualities, & is capable of development after all.
* in dynasty league, i would have the same big three in redraft at same place.
my next choices would probably be bulger, palmer & leftwich... palmer is only 25. this is partly respect for great WR weapons palmer has... put leftwich in CIN & palmer in JAX & i probably reverse my order... all things being equal, i probably like palmer slightly more for his athleticism & elusiveness... leftwich may have superior intangibles & football smarts.
Even though your parallel to Jeff Goerge is weak at best, I'll play along.Jeff George was the 7th best fantasy QB twice in his career and 3rd best once. Better than Brady has ever been FWIW.
Leaf is simply one of many names that I threw out to show that scouts don't know much when it comes to QBs. Here are all the QBs drafted in the first round between 1992-2002
avid CarrJoey HarringtonPatrick Ramsey Michael VickChad PenningtonTim CouchDonovan McNabbAkili SmithDaunte CulpepperPeyton ManningRyan LeafJim DruckenmillerSteve McNairKerry CollinsHeath ShulerTrent DilferDrew BledsoeRick MirerDave BrownDavid KlinglerTommy MaddoxThat's certainly a mixed bag. There are a few superstars, a few monumental busts, and a lot of guys who fall somewhere between. Personally, looking at this list doesn't lead me to put tremendous faith in the ability of NFL scouting departments to pick good quarterbacks. While it's true that Manning, McNabb, and Culpepper were all successfully identified, it's also true that a number of impostors like Shuler, Mirer, Leaf, and A. Smith snuck in there. Using Palmer's draft position to justify excitement for his future is a weak stance from my perspective. I don't care if a lot of scouts liked him. That doesn't mean he's going to become the next Elway.
I'm a believer that what you see is often what you get with quarterbacks. Is there a big learning curve at the position? Absolutely. There's no denying that it often takes years for a prospect to adjust to the pro game. Nevertheless, I still think it's valid to consider a player's college career. It's my personal belief that success as NFL QB is at least 50% mental. While I think these mental skills can be honed, I don't think that most of the necessary instincts can be taught. There's really no way to prove whether or not Palmer has these instincts, but it's my own personal opinion that he doesn't. This is a judgment call. I can't really prove it, but I can say from watching him play that he's never struck me as having great instincts. His INT numbers seem to reflect this. You mentioned that he played under a number of different offensive coordinators. That's a valid observation, but I'm not sure that it's a great excuse. My feeling is that a good QB should be able to excel in almost any college system. The level of competition is low and a great player should dominate as long as he has a decent supporting cast. Palmer always had plenty of weapons. Maleagu Mackenzie, Justin Fargas, Sultan McCullough, Reggie Bush, Mike Williams, Kareem Kelly, Jacob Rogers, Keary Colbert. He was surrounded almost exclusively by NFL caliber players. That doesn't mean he's not talented, but a great supporting cast can certainly help mask some flaws.
The point is that not every highly-drafted player who shows signs of potential ends up becoming a great pro.
Here are some reasons:Carson Palmer - 2004
but like you said, i guess he just had a few lucky, flukey games.* yes, leaf is example of guy with high expectations that didn't fail. but i think a conclusion we could draw from this is that he failed for identifiable reasons, certainly by his first or second year... basically the guy was insane, in technical terms.if you can find a comp player that did as well as palmer in his first year and was subsequently a mediocre QB, do so. if you don't, what else are we to conclude but that it is because you CAN'T. and than you can adhere to your previously formed conclusions, but i think in this case you would yourself have to admit they fly in the face of history & are floating in air without any statistical underpinnings to support your opinion (volek, BTW, was not a first rounder... he did have 11 TDs in a three game stretch last season)... but again, if you take exception to this, show us some RELEVANT comps...not guys like koren robinson & william green... their careers have to date foundered on reasons that are, AGAIN, clearly identifiable & have NOTHING to do with palmer situation. the ostensible reason for using a comp player, or creating any metaphor or analogy for that matter, is to use something simpler or more familiar to explain something more complex or different. a road has a "shoulder", & nail has a "head".a road map wouldn't be very useful if it was as big as the United States (kinda hard to fold up & fit in your glovebox... but is important they have structural similarities... CA on left of map, NY on right... roads in right place, distances to scale, etc)...you can say an avocado is like a zebra, but if people find the connection remote & incoherent, it is incumbent on you to explain why an avocado is like a zebra... ie - what new knowledge & principles we can extract from the robinson & green situations to palmer... why not drag in lawrence phillips while you are at it. surely you can see when you bring in players with seemingly little relevance or remote connection to the matters at hand, there is at least an appearance that you have an axe to grind, & are trying REALLY, REALLY hard to not concede what seems fairly evident to most... palmer had a pretty good second half for a first year starter... by virtually any fair & reasonable standard or measure.a point you are failing to take into account... for some players, it can be harder, not easier as you move through first year... divisional opponents get a book on a QB, learn what he does well & takes it away... learn what he does poorly & force him to do it... see how rothliesberger finished the year.wouldn't you concur that he didn't finish as strong as he started. it seemed like teams started to figure him out, didn't blitz as much, dropped a bunch of guys into coverage, & forced him to beat them by throwing into coverage. but no doubt you will cut him some slack because by your scouting you intuit he has what it takes to develope & get better.
Where'd you get those stats? Palmer finished 19th in passing yards. He wasn't in the top ten even if you adjust for games missed. The same goes for passing TDs (despite finishing sixth in attempts/game).so ebf,
among your list of 21 first round QBs, how many of them finished third in the NFL in TDs & fourth in yards in there first season as the starter.
but like you said, i guess he just had a few lucky, flukey games.
He's going to have to play against some very good D's and that will take it's toll. However, I also believe that the cream rises to the top and this offense has way too much cream to be held down for 4 qtrs. The O-line is the key. By making holes and holding their blocks the skill players then find ways to make TD's.Also, last year he plyed well against the likes of Pitts, Balt and NE and was fine.
This is the best you've got? Right? This is what you're hanging your hat on? If so that's fine I just want to be sure. I don't hear some others things come flying out after I explain to you, again, why you are looking at this in the wrong light. Like I said earlier, you must of thought Manning and alot of other HOF types were going to be lousey as well. And please, do not suggest I am comparing Palmer to HOF players because I'm not.As for the greatness question, I didn't realize I had stated he was great. Do I think he will be great? Yes. And maybe this year but probably not great this year. He will be solid with huge upside.
I saw the start of it last year slbd, and I've been cheering for this joke of a franchise since Paul Brown's family took over.Here's what I noticed last year - early in the season, he looked just like another in the long line of Cincy QB busts. He looked just like Jon Kitna to me. Once the 'gals got in the red zone and the defense tightened and dared him to throw, I expected the horrible decision, the pressing, the turnover, and got it at a similar rate that I have been accustomed to.
Again, the stats have not been broken out to tell the whole story. For example, of the 3 TD's and 4 picks against Balt you referenced, the first game was 1 TD and 3 INT's. The second game, in Balt, near the end of the season, was 3 TD's and 1 INT. That game best illustrates his season more than anything else.Can you guys not see this? Did he not improve and demostrate he can do well against the best D's in the NFL? Within a couple of years he will likely be the top 2-3 QB's. This year I can see him top 5-6.
When did I say he sucks? I never said that. I don't think Palmer is a great QB and I do think he's overrated (particularly in dynasty). That's what I've maintained all along. He had a mediocre rookie year and there's nothing about him that leads me to expect the kind of improvements necessary to make him one of the best QBs in the league. Did he show signs of promise? Sure, but a handful of good games usually isn't enough cause for me to annoint someone a future superstar.
And I'd like to clarify what we are discussing here. Are we discussing Palmer's potential/ability as an NFL QB or as a fantasy QB?I find Palmer & Roethlisberger to be an interesting comparison. Each has played nearly one full season as a starting QB. Each was surrounded by a nice cast on offense in that one season. They finished that one season within 2 fantasy points of one another. (See the player pages.)Small sample set last season, since he missed 3 games. Still:First 7 games: 136/247 (55%), 210 passing yards per game (5.95 ypa), 5 passing TDs, 10 interceptions, 12.1 fantasy points per game
Last 6 games: 127/185 (69%), 238 passing yards per game (7.7 ypa), 13 passing TDs, 8 interceptions, 20.8 fantasy points per game
To start the season, Palmer had to develop his rapport with his WRs, and then to make matters worse, Warrick got hurt after a couple of games, and Housh & Washington each missed one game early. But look at how the rapport improved with the WRs over those same splits:
Palmer's first 7 games:
Johnson: 36/550/2 receiving
Housh (played 6): 22/314/0
Washington (played 6): 13/162/0
Palmer's last 6 games:
Johnson: 44/601/5
Housh: 36/486/3
Washington (played 4): 12/140/3
Just look at the TD production alone. Given that all of these players are back, as well as the entire offensive line and the RBs, there is no reason not to expect Palmer to play at his second half pace, which projects to 3800 yards and 35 TDs.
EBF, I find it interesting that you are very high on Roethlisberger and not high on Palmer, when Palmer was a better fantasy QB than Roethlisberger in his first season and plays in an offense more conducive to good fantasy numbers from the QB position.
Interestingly enough, look at Roethlisberger's splits (14 games, so 7 and 7):
First 7 games: 107/155 (69%), 188 passing yards per game (8.5 ypa), 11 passing TDs, 5 interceptions, 16.4 fantasy points per game
Last 7 games: 89/140 (64%), 186 passing yards per game (9.3 ypa), 6 passing TDs, 6 interceptions, 13.4 fantasy points per game
He played worse in his second half, not better. From a fantasy perspective, he had 4 of his 5 worst games in his last 7 games. And he followed that decline by playing poorly in the playoffs, when he was 31/54 (57%) for 407 yards, 3 TDs, and 5 interceptions in 2 games.
So please explain how you can be high on Roethlisberger but not on Palmer.
I think I've already said that I like Palmer more for redraft purposes, although I definitely prefer Roethlisberger in dynasty.From previous debate with EBF about Palmer:
And I'd like to clarify what we are discussing here. Are we discussing Palmer's potential/ability as an NFL QB or as a fantasy QB?I find Palmer & Roethlisberger to be an interesting comparison. Each has played nearly one full season as a starting QB. Each was surrounded by a nice cast on offense in that one season. They finished that one season within 2 fantasy points of one another. (See the player pages.)Small sample set last season, since he missed 3 games. Still:First 7 games: 136/247 (55%), 210 passing yards per game (5.95 ypa), 5 passing TDs, 10 interceptions, 12.1 fantasy points per game
Last 6 games: 127/185 (69%), 238 passing yards per game (7.7 ypa), 13 passing TDs, 8 interceptions, 20.8 fantasy points per game
To start the season, Palmer had to develop his rapport with his WRs, and then to make matters worse, Warrick got hurt after a couple of games, and Housh & Washington each missed one game early. But look at how the rapport improved with the WRs over those same splits:
Palmer's first 7 games:
Johnson: 36/550/2 receiving
Housh (played 6): 22/314/0
Washington (played 6): 13/162/0
Palmer's last 6 games:
Johnson: 44/601/5
Housh: 36/486/3
Washington (played 4): 12/140/3
Just look at the TD production alone. Given that all of these players are back, as well as the entire offensive line and the RBs, there is no reason not to expect Palmer to play at his second half pace, which projects to 3800 yards and 35 TDs.
EBF, I find it interesting that you are very high on Roethlisberger and not high on Palmer, when Palmer was a better fantasy QB than Roethlisberger in his first season and plays in an offense more conducive to good fantasy numbers from the QB position.
Interestingly enough, look at Roethlisberger's splits (14 games, so 7 and 7):
First 7 games: 107/155 (69%), 188 passing yards per game (8.5 ypa), 11 passing TDs, 5 interceptions, 16.4 fantasy points per game
Last 7 games: 89/140 (64%), 186 passing yards per game (9.3 ypa), 6 passing TDs, 6 interceptions, 13.4 fantasy points per game
He played worse in his second half, not better. From a fantasy perspective, he had 4 of his 5 worst games in his last 7 games. And he followed that decline by playing poorly in the playoffs, when he was 31/54 (57%) for 407 yards, 3 TDs, and 5 interceptions in 2 games.
So please explain how you can be high on Roethlisberger but not on Palmer.
However, Palmer played one less game. And he plays in a less conservative offense. And he showed a positive trend in his second half last season, whereas Ben showed a declining trend.
Yet there are those, such as EBF, who think Roethlisberger has stud fantasy potential but Palmer doesn't.
I guess we'll see how it looks after another season.
i meant to say second half... FM cited these stats for last eight games (his last eight)... i didn't verify them, but they seemed about right. i would still stand by my point that he had an excellent second half, & am still waiting to see if any of the QBs on your list of 21 first rounders had such a good second half. i would think it unlikely you will be able to... except for maybe a guy like c-pepp... but i am guessing that is a comp player you would not like very much to make.Where'd you get those stats? Palmer finished 19th in passing yards. He wasn't in the top ten even if you adjust for games missed. The same goes for passing TDs (despite finishing sixth in attempts/game).so ebf,
among your list of 21 first round QBs, how many of them finished third in the NFL in TDs & fourth in yards in there first season as the starter.
but like you said, i guess he just had a few lucky, flukey games.
I've already made a case about drawing conclusions about an untested player based on a low number of games. It's a risky practice. Also, realize that I have the right to say that I just don't think he's all that good. That's my judgment call and I'm allowed to make it.i meant to say second half... FM cited these stats for last eight games (his last eight)... i didn't verify them, but they seemed about right. i would still stand by my point that he had an excellent second half, & am still waiting to see if any of the QBs on your list of 21 first rounders had such a good second half. i would think it unlikely you will be able to... except for maybe a guy like c-pepp... but i am guessing that is a comp player you would not like very much to make.Where'd you get those stats? Palmer finished 19th in passing yards. He wasn't in the top ten even if you adjust for games missed. The same goes for passing TDs (despite finishing sixth in attempts/game).so ebf,
among your list of 21 first round QBs, how many of them finished third in the NFL in TDs & fourth in yards in there first season as the starter.
but like you said, i guess he just had a few lucky, flukey games.
I like this comment. Stats only go so far and then you've got to let instincts take over. So while we may feel differently about Palmer's future we are in full agreement with this intangiable.I've already made a case about drawing conclusions about an untested player based on a low number of games. It's a risky practice. Also, realize that I have the right to say that I just don't think he's all that good. That's my judgment call and I'm allowed to make it.i meant to say second half... FM cited these stats for last eight games (his last eight)... i didn't verify them, but they seemed about right. i would still stand by my point that he had an excellent second half, & am still waiting to see if any of the QBs on your list of 21 first rounders had such a good second half. i would think it unlikely you will be able to... except for maybe a guy like c-pepp... but i am guessing that is a comp player you would not like very much to make.Where'd you get those stats? Palmer finished 19th in passing yards. He wasn't in the top ten even if you adjust for games missed. The same goes for passing TDs (despite finishing sixth in attempts/game).so ebf,
among your list of 21 first round QBs, how many of them finished third in the NFL in TDs & fourth in yards in there first season as the starter.
but like you said, i guess he just had a few lucky, flukey games.
Domanick Davis is another example of a player that I just don't believe in. You can carve up the stats and make him look like one of the best backs in the league, but I'm just not buying it.
This hobby is an inexact science. Sometimes you have to go with your gut. I think there are plenty of genuine risk factors surrounding Palmer, but a certain amount of my skepticism comes from my own judgment call. I don't buy the hype on every player and I'm not required to.
of course you are not required to... nobody is asking you to... but when you offer unsupported statements that he didn't have a good second half when most measures would say he did... that isn't a case where you are making a judgement call about something you thought you saw in the past that might have some bearing or relevance on something you think might happen in the future. like when you cited the list of 21 first round QBs... clearly you weren't venturing a subjective opinion than... you were citing facts related to recent football history. ironically, this seemed to fail to make the point you were trying to, in fact seeming to undermine & sabotage the very point you are trying to make.I've already made a case about drawing conclusions about an untested player based on a low number of games. It's a risky practice. Also, realize that I have the right to say that I just don't think he's all that good. That's my judgment call and I'm allowed to make it.i meant to say second half... FM cited these stats for last eight games (his last eight)... i didn't verify them, but they seemed about right. i would still stand by my point that he had an excellent second half, & am still waiting to see if any of the QBs on your list of 21 first rounders had such a good second half. i would think it unlikely you will be able to... except for maybe a guy like c-pepp... but i am guessing that is a comp player you would not like very much to make.Where'd you get those stats? Palmer finished 19th in passing yards. He wasn't in the top ten even if you adjust for games missed. The same goes for passing TDs (despite finishing sixth in attempts/game).so ebf,
among your list of 21 first round QBs, how many of them finished third in the NFL in TDs & fourth in yards in there first season as the starter.
but like you said, i guess he just had a few lucky, flukey games.
Domanick Davis is another example of a player that I just don't believe in. You can carve up the stats and make him look like one of the best backs in the league, but I'm just not buying it.
This hobby is an inexact science. Sometimes you have to go with your gut. I think there are plenty of genuine risk factors surrounding Palmer, but a certain amount of my skepticism comes from my own judgment call. I don't buy the hype on every player and I'm not required to.
if you don't have many goose eggs, get at least one a lot, 2 in a few others, maybe 3-4-5 in a few... doesn't that describe most QBs apart from maybe top 2-3?I hope you are joking. That brain-type thing is a joke. I bet you believe in fortune-telling and talking to the dead, too.Carson Palmer is 'The Man'. And Carson Palmer isn't dumb as a box of rocks. He's one of those guys that one look and you know he's destined for greatness. he reminds me of John Elway, but only with talent around him (Elway had to win games on his own in the first half of his career). Carson Palmer has one of the best, if not best deep-balls in the NFL. He has mobility (he lost 20 lbs to get more mobile). He came alive in the last 6 games of the season. If he isn't a pro-bowler this year he will be next year. The most important thing about Palmer is his work ethic, failure is not an option with this kid. He's also very grounded and down to earth, you won't have to worry about any off the field issues (not that many QB's have those...).
Wow, I'm soooo going to bump this at the end of next seasonIs this the shark pool? Am I lost?
Carson Palmer has a nice supporting cast.
Carson Palmer has a top 10 o-line.
Carson Palmer had a decent 2nd half for a 1st year starter.
Carson Palmer finished as the 20th ranked QB in 2004.
Some people on this board are argueing that CP has top 10 potential. Some say he's Hawaii bound. Some say he is potentilal top-3 this season.
I give you all the stats and the potential and the growth. I can't look past the mental makeup or the fact that there are still potentially 19 other guys that will repeat or improve also.
No way will CP be a top 3 guy...ever. He is not a QB1 unless you play in a 18 team league.
Of the 19 guys that bested him in 2004, he may have a chance at catching the likes of Brian Griese, David Carr, Brian Leftwich, Pennington and Roethlisberger (maybe not the last 2), but that only moves him up 5 spots. Add the possibility of an improved Vick, Harrington's nice situation, and Kurt Warner with his own team again, Palmer looks like a decent to good QB2 but definitely not somebody worth starting every week, and definitely not a top 3 QB.
Carson Palmer has greatness written all over him, I'm surprised nobody else can read it...
Where did I say that he didn't have a good second half?
I think we see it differently.
Like I said, I'm not interested in assuming massive long-term improvements on the basis of what basically amounts to 2-3 good games at the end of one season.
Like I said, at some level it's just a matter of judgment. I've never particularly liked Palmer as a pro prospect, so I'm especially skeptical of him. Beyond that, I would've liked to have seen a better YPA, a better TD/INT ratio, and a better QB rating.
It would have taken a lot. Like I said, it's a judgment call. You have to look at the whole of the matter. This is where I'd bring up Domanick Davis again. I don't think Domanick Davis is very good, but one can make some decent arguments in his favor. A lot of people here think he's great. I disagree. I can make my arguments against him, but what it basically comes down to is whether or not you believe in his skills. If you do then you'll only see the good. If you don't then you'll only see the bad. It's the same way with Palmer. If you look at the right set of games and you take them as signs of permanent progress then it's easy to see how you would be high on his prospects. Personally, I'm not sold on his skills. I don't think his numbers or performance were particularly special and I don't think his lofty dynasty ranking is at all justified.
Nope. Palmer's season was mediocre. His second half was pretty strong, thanks mostly to two good games.
the fact that he had a good second half is WHAT MAKES IT a good season... he showed improvement in the second half over the first. isn't that what you would want from a first year starter? wouldn't that in fact, be close to a best case scenario for a first year QB? so why insist on characterizing it as a bad season? it might have been a bad season overall for a ten year starter. but his strong close make it a GREAT season for a first year starter. this is elementary stuff, and to rigidly deny it begs the question... why? a finish like palmer had is rare for a first year QB, and would seem to be a positive to anybody, unless predisposed to interpret the data in a negative light. to say some QBs don't improve, doesn't address fact that few have played at his second half level, and don't belong in discussion. restrict discussion to all the many first year QBs that no doubt had great second halfs of their rookie year like palmer (this must be eminently achievable since palmer is average & testeverde-like), & than we'll talk some more. volek may not be best example of someone who finished strong... towards the end, he looked badly exposed. he didn't get stronger as season progressed like palmer did. he also cleaned up on some heinous defenses, whereas palmer made hay against likes of NE & BAL, two of best teams in league.i don't see the need to belittle palmer's second half or diminish its importance by repeatedly insisting it was merely a few good games. on one level, that is the point... it was his first season as starter... that is all he played was a few games. how could you have 50-100 great games under your belt, if you have only had initial seven "getting acclimated to speed of pro game" games, followed by six "up to speed" games? he only played a few games, so it would only be possible for him to have had a few great games. to expect anything more would be unrealistic or unreasonable.i think above totals are prorated to 35 TDs over 16 games (no longer has to get acclimated this season, if he doesn't miss three games)... i get the feeling you will than discount it & say he just had a few great games plus a few more great games... but wasn't really consistent.* edit/add - i used the words predisposition, slant & bias above, because you seemed to refer to this in post above with dominic davis... something to effect that you like davis or you don't... those that do are bound to see the good in davis, those that don't are bound to see the bad. i think this does effectively capture what seems to be your thought process (you have already concluded that palmer is a marginal, testeverde-like talent...if data pops up that seems to contradict your viewpoint, you ignore it or slant it negatively). imo, though this may be representative of how your thinking operates, & probably explains why you mistakenly assume others think the same way, it is a gross over-simplification of the process of shuttling back & forth between the inner world of our observations & expectations and the external world of what the prospects have actually done in games and the stats they accumulate.i might have said early in the process priest holmes was a mediocre talent... he didn't distinguish himself in college enuf to even get drafted. he didn't explode right out of the gate in the pros. but at some point, his stats are going to conk me over the head & say... hey, maybe i was wrong about this guy... i guess he was good after all. exactly where this transition from sceptic to believer occurs is incidental... we just need to recognize that sometimes it is best to be flexible, admit we make mistakes at times, and reconsider old scouting prospect expectations in the light of new stats that seem to contradict our original thinking... rather than assume the opposite, the facts and stats must be spurious because they don't jibe with what i feel.i'm hoping at some point, if dom davis puts up serial 2,000 combined yard & 12+ TD seasons, you would be forced to conclude maybe he was better than you gave him credit for. perhaps revise, expand or otherwise rethink the criteria you employ for determining what constellation of physical traits, athletic skills & mental profile makes a RB mediocre or great?in this case, you aren't, as you put it... already not liking davis & therefor seeing the bad in him. just like it is possible for palmer & davis to improve, so too can our thinking improve. reggie williams would be an counter-example of this process... in his case stats weren't impressive, which contradicts my judgement that he has talent & could be a good player. at some point, if he does poorly 3-4 seasons in a row, i would no doubt revise my expectations downwards. i would probably say... i guess i was wrong about this guy all along. stats can revise our expectations (priest), but our expectations can lead us to not weight stats overly heavy (i haven't given up on reggie yet)... it is not so necessarily so stark & black & white that people just see what they want to see, good or bad, & twist the stats into their narrow, pre-determined pre-conceptions. for most coaches & dynasty owners, they would be thrilled to see the strong second half palmer finished with... that fact in itself (his seeming development & improvement in second half over first) would make his overall season "good"... but to you, it was a "bad" season.most would look at his last six games, which prorates to 35 TDs as a sign of growth & maturuty. to you, it was just 2 good games... ho hum. maybe the stats were flukey & lucky. but it is not like his good games were at beginning or season... or in middle ... or interspersed throughout in random haphazard fashion... there seems to be a clear trendline. and this fits for what we would expect of first season starter who is maturing & developing. here is an area which seems most monstrously illogical. you admit to sort of having a pretermined judgement of palmer... one which probably precludes him from developing into a very good QB (the refrain... testeverde-like). if there are seeming signs of development & improvement, they are dissed as 2 good games.if he were improving, how would you know it... how could you even begin to identify & recognize it if you are bound & determined to fall back on your observations & analysis of his college days... you have already decided in advance he is testeverde-like, so if there are seeming signs of maturity & development, they can with confidence be dismissed, or re-imagined as luck, flukey, a few good games. since you already know in your own mind how is future is to unfold, no need to give too much weight to facts & stats that don't prop up your rigid, unyielding, predetermined & assumption-laden judgements. the disturbing, insidious dimension to this train of thought, & the implications it engenders... the only possible way to recognize improvement, would be for you to be flexible, keep an open mind & look for signs that possibly you were wrong about his being a mediocre QB probably incapable of improvement. but if you shut it down at some point after seeing him in college, & saying to yourself, i've seen enuf, obviously he'll never be better than testeverde... you remove from yourself the very means by which you might possibly recognize & identify signs pointing towards his possible/probable improvement... let alone being able to interpret & understand their meaning and relevance.** edit/add II - like everything we have both said, positions can be twisted into black & whites, virtues can shade into vices... point taken it is possible to be stupidly bold, rash & reckless... just as it is possible to be stupidly overcatious & conservative. but in the case of dynasty leagues, we are FORCED to be able to interpret limited data samples...interpret rightly chad johnson's huge second half of his sophomore season and reel in a superstar at a cheap price before his value skyrockets... take the attitude... i'm gonna wait a few more seasons, i'm not convinced yet... somebody else will get there first.wait one year too long, and this time next season, palmer may be hugely more expensive or in fact unobtainbale in some leagues (you wouldn't want to pay what it would take to get him in some leagues, making him for practical purposes almost unobtainable). this is part of the pressure of dynasty leagues... in redrafts you can always try again next year. in a dynasty league, make a wrong call & misjudge or undervalue a guy, & they are gone. we don't have the luxury of sitting in a rocking chair for a decade & pondering why we can't reconcile our preconceptions with the facts, stats, data... their pattern & distribution. snooze & you lose. you have to think fast, think on the fly & be on your toes, being vigilant for positive or negative signs, either way.brooks has been mentioned by some as "safer"... my redraft concern is that saints seem to be interested in taking ball out of his hands & feeding mccallister more... for all his stats, brooks has not won consistently... not all his fault, but he has to share some responsibility as the QB & leader. long-term, my dynasty concern about brooks is that he could lose his job to the probably more talented mcpherson.leftwich? i like him a lot (just after palmer), but i don't think he has led team to 30 points in game even once in two seasons. and his lack of mobility relative to palmer could cause him to get hit more than a pinata on cinco de mayo.It is funny when people can look at the same thing and come away with 2 completely different opinions. I guess we are to assume that only the people in the pro-Palmer camp have actually watched him play. I drafted him last season as my QB2, based on that potential, his supporting cast, and his pedigree. I watched him play in part of every game last season. I never got a sense that he was ever going to be a superstar. I never got a sense that he'd be a pro-bowler in a conference with Brady, Manning, Trent Green, Brees, Plummer, and Pennington. I never got a sense that he was gaining confidence.Wow, I'm soooo going to bump this at the end of next seasonIs this the shark pool? Am I lost?
Carson Palmer has a nice supporting cast.
Carson Palmer has a top 10 o-line.
Carson Palmer had a decent 2nd half for a 1st year starter.
Carson Palmer finished as the 20th ranked QB in 2004.
Some people on this board are argueing that CP has top 10 potential. Some say he's Hawaii bound. Some say he is potentilal top-3 this season.
I give you all the stats and the potential and the growth. I can't look past the mental makeup or the fact that there are still potentially 19 other guys that will repeat or improve also.
No way will CP be a top 3 guy...ever. He is not a QB1 unless you play in a 18 team league.
Of the 19 guys that bested him in 2004, he may have a chance at catching the likes of Brian Griese, David Carr, Brian Leftwich, Pennington and Roethlisberger (maybe not the last 2), but that only moves him up 5 spots. Add the possibility of an improved Vick, Harrington's nice situation, and Kurt Warner with his own team again, Palmer looks like a decent to good QB2 but definitely not somebody worth starting every week, and definitely not a top 3 QB.
There are those players over the years that you just know are great after watching them play for a year or so and Palmer is a prime example. He's the prototypical NFL quarterback, he has it all. He really started stepping up his leadership late in the season along with gaining confidence. The man has terrific passing mechanics, great touch, and one of if not best deep balls in the league. Factor that in with pretty good mobility and wtf is this mental makeup bull####? I hope you aren't referring to the 'brain-type' snake oil. SERENITY NOW!!!!
He'll never ever be a top 3 QB? Time will tell
The Brain Doctor was instrumental in helping the Denver Nuggets with their draft selections. Nuff said.It is funny when people can look at the same thing and come away with 2 completely different opinions. I guess we are to assume that only the people in the pro-Palmer camp have actually watched him play. I drafted him last season as my QB2, based on that potential, his supporting cast, and his pedigree. I watched him play in part of every game last season. I never got a sense that he was ever going to be a superstar. I never got a sense that he'd be a pro-bowler in a conference with Brady, Manning, Trent Green, Brees, Plummer, and Pennington. I never got a sense that he was gaining confidence.Wow, I'm soooo going to bump this at the end of next seasonIs this the shark pool? Am I lost?
Carson Palmer has a nice supporting cast.
Carson Palmer has a top 10 o-line.
Carson Palmer had a decent 2nd half for a 1st year starter.
Carson Palmer finished as the 20th ranked QB in 2004.
Some people on this board are argueing that CP has top 10 potential. Some say he's Hawaii bound. Some say he is potentilal top-3 this season.
I give you all the stats and the potential and the growth. I can't look past the mental makeup or the fact that there are still potentially 19 other guys that will repeat or improve also.
No way will CP be a top 3 guy...ever. He is not a QB1 unless you play in a 18 team league.
Of the 19 guys that bested him in 2004, he may have a chance at catching the likes of Brian Griese, David Carr, Brian Leftwich, Pennington and Roethlisberger (maybe not the last 2), but that only moves him up 5 spots. Add the possibility of an improved Vick, Harrington's nice situation, and Kurt Warner with his own team again, Palmer looks like a decent to good QB2 but definitely not somebody worth starting every week, and definitely not a top 3 QB.
There are those players over the years that you just know are great after watching them play for a year or so and Palmer is a prime example. He's the prototypical NFL quarterback, he has it all. He really started stepping up his leadership late in the season along with gaining confidence. The man has terrific passing mechanics, great touch, and one of if not best deep balls in the league. Factor that in with pretty good mobility and wtf is this mental makeup bull####? I hope you aren't referring to the 'brain-type' snake oil. SERENITY NOW!!!!
He'll never ever be a top 3 QB? Time will tell
As I said before, he's got decent-to-good QB2 written all over him. Why he is being drafted ahead of lower level QB1's baffles me.
As for the brain-typing, yes I think there reason to acknowledge it. The process has been successfully used before. I guess the sports teams (NFL, NBA, etc.) that pay Brain Doctor to scout players before the draft are crazy, huh? You can deny it all you want but scientists have broken down personalities in such a detailed way that they can make predictions based on the outcome. You can ignore it. I take it into consideration.
Palmer does not have the personality to be a superstar.
I have made an addition to my sig, just for you.
it is the kind of behavior, attention to detail, mind set & outlook, willingness to work on the little things & do the dirty work... shared by great ones. guys like manning. and than they followed up on it by spending time around & outside regular scheduled games & practices to get in extra work, to cultivate the manning/harrison-like telepathic rapport on the field. it doesn't happen by magic... because they looked good in college, doesn't insure they will reach greatness... just as if they weren't spectacular in college doesn't mean they won't (see brady).it has to do with hard work... not cheating or taking short cuts... keep working thru the reps until improvement happens. this is the kind of mindset that leads to improvement. it is also the kind of story or anecdote that would be scoffed or dismissed as meaningless & irrelevant if one were alrready predisposed to always think of palmer as testeverde-like. when have we heard of brooks on his off-time going to a colts game with his WRs to emulate a great, better QB?brooks had to be enrolled in leadership classes by his own team (why did he need them... why didn't he enroll himself).palmer doesn't need leadership classes... he already is a leader. he is a leader by virtue of doing the little things & working hard to better himself... he leads by example.palmer doesn't whine that he hasn't been positioned to succeed because he plays for bad team (its not MY fault... it is everybody else's fault... they are the problem).if he even THOUGHT about thinking like that, let alone say it to the media, marvin lewis would give him a savatte kick to the head. no wonder brooks doesn't instill confidence in his troops or inspire them to rally around him... he sold them out... chopped them off at the heels for two bits.* edit/add - it isn't my intent to badger you ebf... for the record, even though i may think you are off in this case, i think you are right a lot. obviously we can all have differences of opinion in a player, and be wrong in some cases... as i might be here.i just think that if you make a statement that is contrarian... palmer's big second half wasn't really a big second half... it just seemed that way... actually it was just two good games... he didn't really have a good season despite the big second half, because he didn't REALLY have a good second half... he just had 2 good games... etc. you should be prepared to defend those kind of counter-intuitive statements.we possibly could have hashed this out a cycles or iterations of back & forths ago... but bringing in names like leaf, koren robinson & william green that almost everybody would concur have very little or nothing to do with palmer's chances to suceed long term, & the kinds of reasons his improvement might hinge on...didn't put your counterintuitive statements in the most lucid, clear light... & imo didn't do justice to your usually more characteristic insight & debate skills at their best.i have seen some of your other debates & this is probably pretty tame in comparison to some, & from where i am sitting has been civil on both sides. i appreciate that. if i may think you stubborn to concede obvious points at times, i concede i am stubborn also... we are both tenacious if we think we are on to something important worth defending. i respect the reasons why you do this since i often do the same thing (like here).maybe palmer's seeming improvement trendline is just more noise than signal... spurious & misleading? but when it fits the profile of an improving young QB, i see know reason to think otherwise unless there is compelling reason to do so. your most compelling reason you offered was your instinct or gut feeling based on watching him in college. but it is what he has done since college that has to be evaluated to determine whether improvement has occurred. it seems sometimes that you have stopped looking for signs that might disrupt or even dislodge your "worldview" of palmer.you reinforced this when you mentioned that you feel dom davis is not good even though he has done good. this is the kind of counter-intuitive statement that can lead to serious confusion & misunderstanding. did you mean permanently... even if he continues to put up big rushing yards, receptions & TD totals his owners enjoyed in first two seasons into perpetuity, you will always be down on him because you have made up your mind that he is not a special talent? i don't think this is what you meant, but it was left open & an unanswered question. if that is what you meant, it makes no sense to me. who cares if a player does or doesn't meet some internal checklist... maybe the checklist is arbitrary, muddled & in the end in need of expansion & revision, if it doesn't incorporate room for facts & stats. if a guys shows repeated success... i guess the dude by definition had what it took... apparently for reasons i hadn't suspected or accounted for.imo, we need to both pay attention to stat trends as well as have conviction in our scouting sense & not blow with the wind (and buck the consensus at times)... not have preconceived notions drive our interpretation of the stats.this leads to the avoidance of bizarre corollaries to thinking that davis isn't really good even though he did well... how do we explain that? his opponents just inexplicably & repeatedly missed him even though he isn't very good & they SHOULD have tackled him. maybe by a strange coincidence all the teams that faced him were bad, & this year it will different?
IOW-he doesn't like Palmer no matter what. Palmer can be the #1 QB in the NFL and sounds like he's sticking with his assessment because he sticks with his initial judgements of players.
Alrighty then. This sounds like the opposite of what homers do. You know, the guys that draft players from their favorite teams just because they like that team.
Even though I have defended an optimistic view of Palmer here and elsewhere, I wouldn't consider him as a top 5 dynasty QB either.I think in initial dynasty drafts many people tend to overrate age as a factor, but that is really an issue for another discussion.As a dynasty QB I think Palmer has good potential, and I could see drafting him as high as #7 or so. EDIT: And I would attempt to pair him with a veteran with a complementary schedule since veterans tend to be underrated in dynasty drafts.As a redraft QB for this year, I think he has plenty of potential, but I wouldn't take him in the top 10 and I would plan to pair him with another QB who has a complementary schedule given that Palmer has several tough games.
I stick by my initial judgment until I have good reasons to change. Sometimes I'll change my mind quickly. Sometimes it takes a couple years.IOW-he doesn't like Palmer no matter what. Palmer can be the #1 QB in the NFL and sounds like he's sticking with his assessment because he sticks with his initial judgements of players.
