This season's Top 10 RB "Turnover" (1 Viewer)

[CheeseHead]

This has been discussed in the past (http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=231541) to show that each season there is about a 50% turnover in the top 10 rb's.

Who do you feel will fall out or climb into this season's top 10?

2006's Top 10 (based on FBG's scoring)

1 Tomlinson,Ladainian

2 Johnson,Larry

3 Jackson,Steven

4 Gore,Frank

5 Parker,Willie

6 Westbrook,Brian

7 Barber,Tiki

8 Jones-Drew,Maurice

9 Johnson,Rudi

10 McAllister,Deuce

Obivously Tiki is out and I think Deuce, Rudi, Jones-Drew, and fall out. I like Addai, Maroney, Alexander and either Henry or Bush crack the top 10.

 

[kncks12]

As a new Ronnie Brown owner I am hoping that he can jump on that list, but I just don't know.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Similar discussion going on here

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=326970

 

[Scruff Mcgruff]

Portis, Henry, Addai and Alexander will get in.

Jones-Drew, Parker, Deuce and possibly Tiki will get out

 

[David Yudkin]

A lot of the RB Top 10 is based on health. Guys from the past year don't stay healthy again get nicked up and fall out. Guys that were hurt last year stay healthy and do well this year.

So many times a crystal ball on player health is needed for these things.

 

[ceo3west]

This has been discussed in the past (http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=231541) to show that each season there is about a 50% turnover in the top 10 rb's.

Who do you feel will fall out or climb into this season's top 10?

2006's Top 10 (based on FBG's scoring)

1 Tomlinson,Ladainian

2 Johnson,Larry

3 Jackson,Steven

4 Gore,Frank

5 Parker,Willie

6 Westbrook,Brian

7 Barber,Tiki

8 Jones-Drew,Maurice

9 Johnson,Rudi

10 McAllister,Deuce

Obivously Tiki is out and I think Deuce, Rudi, Jones-Drew, and fall out. I like Addai, Maroney, Alexander and either Henry or Bush crack the top 10.

Careful where you tread, I get slammed every time I mention that there is top 10 turnover every year.That said, here's who I think will drop out:

Johnson

Westbrook

Barber (obviously)

MJD

McAllister

Here's who is in:

Henry

Addai

Portis

Bush

Benson

 

[duaneok66]

OUT

LJ

MJD

Barber

Parker

Rudi

 

[ceo3west]

A lot of the RB Top 10 is based on health. Guys from the past year don't stay healthy again get nicked up and fall out. Guys that were hurt last year stay healthy and do well this year.So many times a crystal ball on player health is needed for these things.

Not all the time. Last year, of the four pre-season consensus top 10 backs that dropped out, I beleive three were not due to injury:BrownCaddyJames

 

[switz]

1 Tomlinson,Ladainian <-- stays in

2 Johnson,Larry <--- may stay in, but will not be in top 5

3 Jackson,Steven <-- stays in

4 Gore,Frank <-- stays in

5 Parker,Willie <-- probably stays in, but may fall

6 Westbrook,Brian <-- out

7 Barber,Tiki <-- out out out

8 Jones-Drew,Maurice <--- not a chance

9 Johnson,Rudi <-- out

10 McAllister,Deuce <-- out

 

[David Yudkin]

A lot of the RB Top 10 is based on health. Guys from the past year don't stay healthy again get nicked up and fall out. Guys that were hurt last year stay healthy and do well this year.So many times a crystal ball on player health is needed for these things.

Not all the time. Last year, of the four pre-season consensus top 10 backs that dropped out, I beleive three were not due to injury:BrownCaddyJames

2005 Top 10 Shaun Alexander - missed 6 gamesLarry JohnsonLaDainian TomlinsonTiki BarberEdgerrin James - switched teamsClinton Portis - missed 8 gamesRudi JohnsonLaMont Jordan - missed 6 gamesThomas JonesMike Anderson - didn't even start on his new team2006 Top 10LaDainian TomlinsonLarry JohnsonSteven Jackson - played an extra game vs 2005Frank Gore - played in 2 more games in 2006 (in addition to starting)Willie Parker - played in 1 more game than 2005 (with a much greater workload)Brian Westbrook - played in 3 more games in 2006Tiki BarberMaurice Jones-Drew - Injury to Taylor or would not have been Top 10Rudi JohnsonLadell Betts - Injury to Portis or would not have been Top 103 guys from 2005 fell out as a direct result to injury in 2006. 2 guys in 2006 were Top 10 as a direct result to injured teammates. Westbrook stayed healthier in 2006. That's 6 players that were impacted by health one way or another.

 

[ceo3west]

A lot of the RB Top 10 is based on health. Guys from the past year don't stay healthy again get nicked up and fall out. Guys that were hurt last year stay healthy and do well this year.So many times a crystal ball on player health is needed for these things.

Not all the time. Last year, of the four pre-season consensus top 10 backs that dropped out, I beleive three were not due to injury:BrownCaddyJames

2005 Top 10 Shaun Alexander - missed 6 gamesLarry JohnsonLaDainian TomlinsonTiki BarberEdgerrin James - switched teamsClinton Portis - missed 8 gamesRudi JohnsonLaMont Jordan - missed 6 gamesThomas JonesMike Anderson - didn't even start on his new team2006 Top 10LaDainian TomlinsonLarry JohnsonSteven Jackson - played an extra game vs 2005Frank Gore - played in 2 more games in 2006 (in addition to starting)Willie Parker - played in 1 more game than 2005 (with a much greater workload)Brian Westbrook - played in 3 more games in 2006Tiki BarberMaurice Jones-Drew - Injury to Taylor or would not have been Top 10Rudi JohnsonLadell Betts - Injury to Portis or would not have been Top 103 guys from 2005 fell out as a direct result to injury in 2006. 2 guys in 2006 were Top 10 as a direct result to injured teammates. Westbrook stayed healthier in 2006. That's 6 players that were impacted by health one way or another.

I know it's not the forum topic, but I prefer to look at the consensus top 10 going into previous years, and how they turned out. There are lessons to be learned looking at it that way. The reason I don't look at last year's top 10 is because guys like Betts and Drew (not to mention Barber) most likely wont be back there. All I care about is who are the top 10 guys being drafted this year, and which guys have a better chance of busting due to various factors that can be seen in past history. If you look at the consensus top 10 going into 2006, 3 of those guys busted last year and it wasn't due to injury.

 

[David Yudkin]

A lot of the RB Top 10 is based on health. Guys from the past year don't stay healthy again get nicked up and fall out. Guys that were hurt last year stay healthy and do well this year.So many times a crystal ball on player health is needed for these things.

Not all the time. Last year, of the four pre-season consensus top 10 backs that dropped out, I beleive three were not due to injury:BrownCaddyJames

2005 Top 10 Shaun Alexander - missed 6 gamesLarry JohnsonLaDainian TomlinsonTiki BarberEdgerrin James - switched teamsClinton Portis - missed 8 gamesRudi JohnsonLaMont Jordan - missed 6 gamesThomas JonesMike Anderson - didn't even start on his new team2006 Top 10LaDainian TomlinsonLarry JohnsonSteven Jackson - played an extra game vs 2005Frank Gore - played in 2 more games in 2006 (in addition to starting)Willie Parker - played in 1 more game than 2005 (with a much greater workload)Brian Westbrook - played in 3 more games in 2006Tiki BarberMaurice Jones-Drew - Injury to Taylor or would not have been Top 10Rudi JohnsonLadell Betts - Injury to Portis or would not have been Top 103 guys from 2005 fell out as a direct result to injury in 2006. 2 guys in 2006 were Top 10 as a direct result to injured teammates. Westbrook stayed healthier in 2006. That's 6 players that were impacted by health one way or another.

I know it's not the forum topic, but I prefer to look at the consensus top 10 going into previous years, and how they turned out. There are lessons to be learned looking at it that way. The reason I don't look at last year's top 10 is because guys like Betts and Drew (not to mention Barber) most likely wont be back there. If you look at the consensus top 10, 3 of those guys busted last year and it wasn't due to injury.

Wait til my ADP vs Value RB article is out . . . you'll have a field day with that one.

 

[ceo3west]

A lot of the RB Top 10 is based on health. Guys from the past year don't stay healthy again get nicked up and fall out. Guys that were hurt last year stay healthy and do well this year.So many times a crystal ball on player health is needed for these things.

Not all the time. Last year, of the four pre-season consensus top 10 backs that dropped out, I beleive three were not due to injury:BrownCaddyJames

2005 Top 10 Shaun Alexander - missed 6 gamesLarry JohnsonLaDainian TomlinsonTiki BarberEdgerrin James - switched teamsClinton Portis - missed 8 gamesRudi JohnsonLaMont Jordan - missed 6 gamesThomas JonesMike Anderson - didn't even start on his new team2006 Top 10LaDainian TomlinsonLarry JohnsonSteven Jackson - played an extra game vs 2005Frank Gore - played in 2 more games in 2006 (in addition to starting)Willie Parker - played in 1 more game than 2005 (with a much greater workload)Brian Westbrook - played in 3 more games in 2006Tiki BarberMaurice Jones-Drew - Injury to Taylor or would not have been Top 10Rudi JohnsonLadell Betts - Injury to Portis or would not have been Top 103 guys from 2005 fell out as a direct result to injury in 2006. 2 guys in 2006 were Top 10 as a direct result to injured teammates. Westbrook stayed healthier in 2006. That's 6 players that were impacted by health one way or another.

I know it's not the forum topic, but I prefer to look at the consensus top 10 going into previous years, and how they turned out. There are lessons to be learned looking at it that way. The reason I don't look at last year's top 10 is because guys like Betts and Drew (not to mention Barber) most likely wont be back there. If you look at the consensus top 10, 3 of those guys busted last year and it wasn't due to injury.

Wait til my ADP vs Value RB article is out . . . you'll have a field day with that one.

Looking forward to it..

 

[Tau837]

This has been discussed in the past (http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=231541) to show that each season there is about a 50% turnover in the top 10 rb's.

Who do you feel will fall out or climb into this season's top 10?

2006's Top 10 (based on FBG's scoring)

1 Tomlinson,Ladainian

2 Johnson,Larry

3 Jackson,Steven

4 Gore,Frank

5 Parker,Willie

6 Westbrook,Brian

7 Barber,Tiki

8 Jones-Drew,Maurice

9 Johnson,Rudi

10 McAllister,Deuce

Obivously Tiki is out and I think Deuce, Rudi, Jones-Drew, and fall out. I like Addai, Maroney, Alexander and either Henry or Bush crack the top 10.

McAllister didn't finish RB10 with FBG scoring, Betts did. McAllister was RB13 (also behind Addai and Chester Taylor). Tiki is obviously out. I predict MJD and Betts to be two of last year's top 10 not to repeat. Barring injury, I don't see compelling reasons to project any of the rest of them outside the top 10.

 

[cobalt_27]

This has been discussed in the past (http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=231541) to show that each season there is about a 50% turnover in the top 10 rb's.

Who do you feel will fall out or climb into this season's top 10?

2006's Top 10 (based on FBG's scoring)

1 Tomlinson,Ladainian

2 Johnson,Larry

3 Jackson,Steven

4 Gore,Frank

5 Parker,Willie

6 Westbrook,Brian

7 Barber,Tiki

8 Jones-Drew,Maurice

9 Johnson,Rudi

10 McAllister,Deuce

Obivously Tiki is out and I think Deuce, Rudi, Jones-Drew, and fall out. I like Addai, Maroney, Alexander and either Henry or Bush crack the top 10.

McAllister didn't finish RB10 with FBG scoring, Betts did. McAllister was RB13 (also behind Addai and Chester Taylor). Tiki is obviously out. I predict MJD and Betts to be two of last year's top 10 not to repeat. Barring injury, I don't see compelling reasons to project any of the rest of them outside the top 10.

Someone has to explain to me all this love over MJD. He's a good, sure. But, just ridiculous as a top-15 pick, let alone somewhere in the top-10.

 

[Jayrod]

This has been discussed in the past (http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=231541) to show that each season there is about a 50% turnover in the top 10 rb's.

Who do you feel will fall out or climb into this season's top 10?

2006's Top 10 (based on FBG's scoring)

1 Tomlinson,Ladainian

2 Johnson,Larry

3 Jackson,Steven

4 Gore,Frank

5 Parker,Willie

6 Westbrook,Brian

7 Barber,Tiki

8 Jones-Drew,Maurice

9 Johnson,Rudi

10 McAllister,Deuce

Obivously Tiki is out and I think Deuce, Rudi, Jones-Drew, and fall out. I like Addai, Maroney, Alexander and either Henry or Bush crack the top 10.

McAllister didn't finish RB10 with FBG scoring, Betts did. McAllister was RB13 (also behind Addai and Chester Taylor). Tiki is obviously out. I predict MJD and Betts to be two of last year's top 10 not to repeat. Barring injury, I don't see compelling reasons to project any of the rest of them outside the top 10.

Someone has to explain to me all this love over MJD. He's a good, sure. But, just ridiculous as a top-15 pick, let alone somewhere in the top-10.

Your readin' skils is real good.But you'd have to put me in the camp of those that actually think he'll finish top 15.

 

[Tau837]

This has been discussed in the past (http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=231541) to show that each season there is about a 50% turnover in the top 10 rb's.

Who do you feel will fall out or climb into this season's top 10?

2006's Top 10 (based on FBG's scoring)

1 Tomlinson,Ladainian

2 Johnson,Larry

3 Jackson,Steven

4 Gore,Frank

5 Parker,Willie

6 Westbrook,Brian

7 Barber,Tiki

8 Jones-Drew,Maurice

9 Johnson,Rudi

10 McAllister,Deuce

Obivously Tiki is out and I think Deuce, Rudi, Jones-Drew, and fall out. I like Addai, Maroney, Alexander and either Henry or Bush crack the top 10.

McAllister didn't finish RB10 with FBG scoring, Betts did. McAllister was RB13 (also behind Addai and Chester Taylor). Tiki is obviously out. I predict MJD and Betts to be two of last year's top 10 not to repeat. Barring injury, I don't see compelling reasons to project any of the rest of them outside the top 10.

Someone has to explain to me all this love over MJD. He's a good, sure. But, just ridiculous as a top-15 pick, let alone somewhere in the top-10.

You quoted my post, which contained Cheesehead's post, and we both said we think MJD will not be top 10. Not sure why you quoted us to make your point.

 

[cobalt_27]

This has been discussed in the past (http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=231541) to show that each season there is about a 50% turnover in the top 10 rb's.

Who do you feel will fall out or climb into this season's top 10?

2006's Top 10 (based on FBG's scoring)

1 Tomlinson,Ladainian

2 Johnson,Larry

3 Jackson,Steven

4 Gore,Frank

5 Parker,Willie

6 Westbrook,Brian

7 Barber,Tiki

8 Jones-Drew,Maurice

9 Johnson,Rudi

10 McAllister,Deuce

Obivously Tiki is out and I think Deuce, Rudi, Jones-Drew, and fall out. I like Addai, Maroney, Alexander and either Henry or Bush crack the top 10.

McAllister didn't finish RB10 with FBG scoring, Betts did. McAllister was RB13 (also behind Addai and Chester Taylor). Tiki is obviously out. I predict MJD and Betts to be two of last year's top 10 not to repeat. Barring injury, I don't see compelling reasons to project any of the rest of them outside the top 10.

Someone has to explain to me all this love over MJD. He's a good, sure. But, just ridiculous as a top-15 pick, let alone somewhere in the top-10.

You quoted my post, which contained Cheesehead's post, and we both said we think MJD will not be top 10. Not sure why you quoted us to make your point.

I'm agreeing with you guys. Emphasizing the point. Piling on. Whatever you want to call it. But, above those posts is MJD's name sitting there at #8. Utterly absurd if that is, indeed, the case that they have him ranked so high (even if not, a few folks here talk about him as though he'll have that kind of production).

 

[Tau837]

This has been discussed in the past (http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=231541) to show that each season there is about a 50% turnover in the top 10 rb's.

Who do you feel will fall out or climb into this season's top 10?

2006's Top 10 (based on FBG's scoring)

1 Tomlinson,Ladainian

2 Johnson,Larry

3 Jackson,Steven

4 Gore,Frank

5 Parker,Willie

6 Westbrook,Brian

7 Barber,Tiki

8 Jones-Drew,Maurice

9 Johnson,Rudi

10 McAllister,Deuce

Obivously Tiki is out and I think Deuce, Rudi, Jones-Drew, and fall out. I like Addai, Maroney, Alexander and either Henry or Bush crack the top 10.

McAllister didn't finish RB10 with FBG scoring, Betts did. McAllister was RB13 (also behind Addai and Chester Taylor). Tiki is obviously out. I predict MJD and Betts to be two of last year's top 10 not to repeat. Barring injury, I don't see compelling reasons to project any of the rest of them outside the top 10.

Someone has to explain to me all this love over MJD. He's a good, sure. But, just ridiculous as a top-15 pick, let alone somewhere in the top-10.

You quoted my post, which contained Cheesehead's post, and we both said we think MJD will not be top 10. Not sure why you quoted us to make your point.

I'm agreeing with you guys. Emphasizing the point. Piling on. Whatever you want to call it. But, above those posts is MJD's name sitting there at #8. Utterly absurd if that is, indeed, the case that they have him ranked so high (even if not, a few folks here talk about him as though he'll have that kind of production).

That list is the 2006 final rankings in FBG scoring. MJD finished #8 last year.

 

[Val Rannous]

Look, did any of you actually WATCH a Jacksonville game last year? MJD is scary good and a physical freak - basically he's a Mini-Me of Earl Campbell with speed. Nobody normal has legs that look like that. I think he will be right at the edge of the top 10 even with Fred Taylor on the team, and will easily break into the top 10 if Fred gets hurt.

 

[nygiants56]

A lot of people think LJ will drop out of the top 10.wow. I can see , maybe, a drop from #3 to #6 or so, but all the way out of the top 10 is harsh..

outside of the Roaf/Shields retirement, the O-line might be slightly better than last season. first of all, the Roaf retirement was a shock to everyone last year. They scrambled to move linemen around. The team grabbed Kyle Turley , then a 260LB TE prospect who had just been cut by Miami , and put him in the starting lineup. He quickly gained some weight and procuded..He's reportedly back to 300LBS now, and has been working out with the team, although he isn't signed yet. That's likely to change, once camp opens. he should be available for the RT spot, if Terry keeps screwing up.

Welbourn moves back to his normal RG spot, and McIntosh will solidify the LT spot.

sure, losing Shields will hurt, but Welbourn is more than capable. Huard was a good starting QB last season, and even if they decide to go with Croyle, the QB position should be ok. ( Croyle, BTW , has reportedly been surprising the coaches with his quick release and the zip he throws with). Bowe starts from day one. This should give defenses fits, his size should cause mis-matches , thus leading to more down the field plays for Gonzalez and Kennison. All of which takes the focus off of the running game..

KC might be cheap, but they're not dumb. there's no way they don't renegotiate LJ's current deal at some point, once camp opens. Worst case scenario, they trade LJ..he'll still be a top 10 RB anywhere he goes , even Cleveland.

 

[remote controller]

MJD is a concensus drop??? I don't see this in a run first run often offense. He will improve upon his usage and yardage. He likely won't produce 16 Td's again, but I'll take 12.

 

[Z-Dog]

A lot of people think LJ will drop out of the top 10.wow. I can see , maybe, a drop from #3 to #6 or so, but all the way out of the top 10 is harsh..

outside of the Roaf/Shields retirement, the O-line might be slightly better than last season. first of all, the Roaf retirement was a shock to everyone last year. They scrambled to move linemen around. The team grabbed Kyle Turley , then a 260LB TE prospect who had just been cut by Miami , and put him in the starting lineup. He quickly gained some weight and procuded..He's reportedly back to 300LBS now, and has been working out with the team, although he isn't signed yet. That's likely to change, once camp opens. he should be available for the RT spot, if Terry keeps screwing up.

Welbourn moves back to his normal RG spot, and McIntosh will solidify the LT spot.

sure, losing Shields will hurt, but Welbourn is more than capable. Huard was a good starting QB last season, and even if they decide to go with Croyle, the QB position should be ok. ( Croyle, BTW , has reportedly been surprising the coaches with his quick release and the zip he throws with). Bowe starts from day one. This should give defenses fits, his size should cause mis-matches , thus leading to more down the field plays for Gonzalez and Kennison. All of which takes the focus off of the running game..

KC might be cheap, but they're not dumb. there's no way they don't renegotiate LJ's current deal at some point, once camp opens. Worst case scenario, they trade LJ..he'll still be a top 10 RB anywhere he goes , even Cleveland.

I think a lot of people are looking at the combination of an unsettled QB and O-line, as well as LJ's huge workload last season, and are seeing a lot of uncertainty. I think also that a lot of people who are saying LJ will drop have him ranked in their top 10 on their depth charts, it's just that the OP calls for speculation on who will drop, which means guessing who will get hurt. All I know is that I'm preparing deals to trade up and go get him if he drops.

 

[Tau837]

MJD is a concensus drop??? I don't see this in a run first run often offense. He will improve upon his usage and yardage. He likely won't produce 16 Td's again, but I'll take 12.

Recent post on MJD:

MJD had 212 touches last season. The next lowest number for a top 10 RB last season was Betts, who was RB10 and had 298 touches. The top 10 RBs other than MJD averaged 378 touches. Also, only 5 RBs had more TDs than MJD.So, basically, he had a flukishly good season in terms of production per touch. I expect him to have lower ypc than 5.7 and lower ypr than 9.5, perhaps significantly lower in one or both. And I expect him to have fewer TDs.I do expect him to have more touches, but not a lot more... not more than 250. Given that, I am not confident that he can again put up top 10 RB numbers.

Since you think he will improve on yardage, how about posting some projections, including number of touches... I think you'll see when you actually look at the numbers that it is very hard to project anything close to a repeat for MJD, much less improvement. Unless you are projecting a huge increase in touches, which presumably means you are predicting Taylor to get hurt.