Thomas Jones in for a huge year! (1 Viewer)

[gbill2004]

I think that Thomas Jones will have a huge season this year (in relation to where he is being drafted...usually in the 4th round). I see a Jamal Lewis 2007 type season this year for TJ. Three reasons:

1. The obvious...Brett Favre is now the Jets QB and will force teams to respect the pass, resulting in less 8 men in the box thus opening up running lanes for TJ.

2. The addition of Alen Faneca. This is a huge OL upgrade and Big Ben has stated that Faneca was a huge part of the OL success for the Steelers.

3. The addition of FB Tony Richardson. Tony has been the FB for three of the best FF RB's in the last decade or so - Priest, LJ and ADP last season.

I think TJ should get 1400-1500 total yards, and 8-12 TDs this season, making him a solid RB1, and based on his ADP, an absolute steal.

 

[JGalligan]

I agree with a lot of what you said, good stuff.

But I think 1400-1500 total yards in a Brett Favre offense is a tad much for a RB. I'm saying 1250 rushing yards, 350 yards receiving, and 6-8 total TD's.

 

[gbill2004]

I agree with a lot of what you said, good stuff.But I think 1400-1500 total yards in a Brett Favre offense is a tad much for a RB. I'm saying 1250 rushing yards, 350 yards receiving, and 6-8 total TD's.

When I said TOTAL yards, I meant rushing and receiving!You think 1600 total yards!!?? Even better!

 

[gianmarco]

No offense, but why do you keep starting multiple threads on the same players on threads YOU started? Is there a reason you felt the need to start 2 TJ threads like you did 2 Josh Morgan threads the other day?

 

[doubletrouble]

TJ why he won't do all those things:

1. he is old

2. leon washington

3. he is old

 

[teamroc]

TJ why he won't do all those things:1. he is old2. leon washington3. he is old

4. He's never had double digit tds before5. He's never had 1,500 total yards before6. his numbers are declining the past two years7. he's related to julius jones8. He had ***1*** TD last year. 9. projecting career years for journeymen 30 year old rbs. Fun fun fun

 

[Banger]

TJ why he won't do all those things:1. he is old2. leon washington3. he is old

4. He's never had double digit tds before5. He's never had 1,500 total yards before6. his numbers are declining the past two years7. he's related to julius jones8. He had ***1*** TD last year. 9. projecting career years for journeymen 30 year old rbs. Fun fun fun

How many td's did Witten have the year before last? You guys have to get off the age thing. He's got a good QB (for the 1st time in his career), a vastly improved line and he'll get the lionshare of the carries (like he did last year). I liken this to Jamal's situation last year but Jamal was even in a worse spot because he was battling ankle injuries for a few years prior to Clev so there was more uncertainty. He was a talented back, the team invested heavily in their line, their QB play improved a lot and then you get a top 10 back for a guy that was drafted in the late teens/early 20's among RB's. What's so different here?Things change each year and as situations change (new qb's, new lines) you have to adjust your perceptions on players. Too often I see fantasy players pigeon hole players and not take the external factors into consideration. T. Jones will make a very solid #2 this year and I'll be targetting him in every draft.

 

[Payne]

TJ why he won't do all those things:1. he is old2. leon washington3. he is old

Coming from a Leon Washington owner.Jones is going to be a great #2 RB this year.

 

[-baller]

I'm predicting he'll bust, mostly because I'm sick of hearing about him.

I hope that whole team implodes.

 

[cstu]

TJ why he won't do all those things:1. he is old2. leon washington3. he is old

4. He's never had double digit tds before5. He's never had 1,500 total yards before6. his numbers are declining the past two years7. he's related to julius jones8. He had ***1*** TD last year. 9. projecting career years for journeymen 30 year old rbs. Fun fun fun

He's had 1300+ total yards each of the past 4 years and came very close to 1500 yards in 2005.Considering what he was able to do on last year's team, I wouldn't be surprised by 1500 total yards at all. He should get a lot more TD opportunities with the improved OL and Favre at QB - I don't think 8-9 TD's out of the question.

 

[teamroc]

TJ why he won't do all those things:1. he is old2. leon washington3. he is old

4. He's never had double digit tds before5. He's never had 1,500 total yards before6. his numbers are declining the past two years7. he's related to julius jones8. He had ***1*** TD last year. 9. projecting career years for journeymen 30 year old rbs. Fun fun fun

How many td's did Witten have the year before last? You guys have to get off the age thing. He's got a good QB (for the 1st time in his career), a vastly improved line and he'll get the lionshare of the carries (like he did last year). I liken this to Jamal's situation last year but Jamal was even in a worse spot because he was battling ankle injuries for a few years prior to Clev so there was more uncertainty. He was a talented back, the team invested heavily in their line, their QB play improved a lot and then you get a top 10 back for a guy that was drafted in the late teens/early 20's among RB's. What's so different here?Things change each year and as situations change (new qb's, new lines) you have to adjust your perceptions on players. Too often I see fantasy players pigeon hole players and not take the external factors into consideration. T. Jones will make a very solid #2 this year and I'll be targetting him in every draft.

Oh snap. A lack of a QB has been holding TJ back for the last 7 years? Dayum! How did AD do it? Oh wait, he's GOOD. Gore? Lynch? 100+ more RBs who get it done without a good QB. Stop making excuses, the guy isn't very good.And all this TJ stuff people said last year. Finally he gets to start, no more Benson, no more crappy Bears. Blah blah blah. He's 30. He's been an average RB all his life. He's never reached the stats discussed. Projecting a career year for 30+ year old RBs, that's solid fantasy strategy? ADP of the early 5th? Ehhhh. Lower ADP guys much safer, Edge, Bowe, Jennings maybe even Harrison. Edge KILLED him last year, and has a lower ADP. He's had 6 carries for 18 yards this preseason (I saw one game) and he didn't look very explosive. We hear all this sleeper TJ nonsense last year, how did he work out as your RB2 last year? RB3? RB4? Buuuust. Unlike a fine wine, TJ isn't getting better with age (tds, yards, ypc going down). Lets pick a journeymen RB, who's been average his whole life, give him a QB, OH SNAP suppa sleppa. People in FF this time of year totally forget the past, reinvent players all the time, and will see only the good. Look at Clayton. People are STILL hyping him up. Clayton has started 40 games, 60 catches, 1 td the last 3 years. *LOL* Are you kidding me? Hey Deuce got a new TE. VALUE. Ahman Green just got a year older, BOOYA.5th round for TJ. *lol* Come on. You're dreaming. Draft a solid WR2, top 6 QB, top 3 TE, or Thomas freaking Jones. And Jamal Lewis worked out great, you had to draft him 5 times to get 1 good year. I love those odds. Firs his prison sentence slowed him down. Then it was ogden getting hurt. Then he was a big back who didn't age well. He went from 1st rnd, to 2nd, to 3rd, to 4th, to 8th. If you love TJ that much, you drafted him last year, and got burned. And yeah, I'm a little down on TJ. So please, don't lecture us on pegging players. If you pegged TJ as a bust his whole career, you didn't miss much. If you drafted TJ every year for the last 5 years, you've been the one losing out.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

No offense, but why do you keep starting multiple threads on the same players on threads YOU started? Is there a reason you felt the need to start 2 TJ threads like you did 2 Josh Morgan threads the other day?

 

[ukshane]

TJ why he won't do all those things:

1. he is old

2. leon washington

3. he is old

4. He's never had double digit tds before5. He's never had 1,500 total yards before

6. his numbers are declining the past two years

7. he's related to julius jones

8. He had ***1*** TD last year.

9. projecting career years for journeymen 30 year old rbs. Fun fun fun

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

When Thomas Jones ran for an effective run game team in Chicago, he was a monster in the hole.

He now has Alan Faneca, Tony Richardson and Brett Favre instead of nobody, nobody and old flappy arm Chad.

I am more confident that TJ can re-find the end zone than Willie Parker can, I'll say that.

Having said that, while I am high on Jones as a value RB, I see him as more of a conservative play with 900 yards and 6 TDs almost for sure with some upside from there.

 

[hoochiemama]

No offense, but why do you keep starting multiple threads on the same players on threads YOU started? Is there a reason you felt the need to start 2 TJ threads like you did 2 Josh Morgan threads the other day?

Guess it is a disinformation campaign to get his competitors to over buy.

 

[FantasyTrader]

TJ why he won't do all those things:1. he is old2. leon washington3. he is old

4. He's never had double digit tds before5. He's never had 1,500 total yards before6. his numbers are declining the past two years7. he's related to julius jones8. He had ***1*** TD last year. 9. projecting career years for journeymen 30 year old rbs. Fun fun fun

How many td's did Witten have the year before last? You guys have to get off the age thing. He's got a good QB (for the 1st time in his career), a vastly improved line and he'll get the lionshare of the carries (like he did last year). I liken this to Jamal's situation last year but Jamal was even in a worse spot because he was battling ankle injuries for a few years prior to Clev so there was more uncertainty. He was a talented back, the team invested heavily in their line, their QB play improved a lot and then you get a top 10 back for a guy that was drafted in the late teens/early 20's among RB's. What's so different here?Things change each year and as situations change (new qb's, new lines) you have to adjust your perceptions on players. Too often I see fantasy players pigeon hole players and not take the external factors into consideration. T. Jones will make a very solid #2 this year and I'll be targetting him in every draft.

Agreed. Anybody looking at TJ's '07 and immediately dismissing him isn't seeing the big picture. This O-line has the potential to be very good this year - better than Jones has had in awhile. I don't think 1,200 rushing and 8 TD's is unreasonable. That would make him a top tier #2.

 

[JGalligan]

I agree with a lot of what you said, good stuff.But I think 1400-1500 total yards in a Brett Favre offense is a tad much for a RB. I'm saying 1250 rushing yards, 350 yards receiving, and 6-8 total TD's.

When I said TOTAL yards, I meant rushing and receiving!You think 1600 total yards!!?? Even better!

Ooh, my fault. There's the ADHD for ya..

 

[BigRed]

Oh snap. A lack of a QB has been holding TJ back for the last 7 years? Dayum! How did AD do it? Oh wait, he's GOOD. Gore? Lynch? 100+ more RBs who get it done without a good QB. Stop making excuses, the guy isn't very good.And all this TJ stuff people said last year. Finally he gets to start, no more Benson, no more crappy Bears. Blah blah blah. He's 30. He's been an average RB all his life. He's never reached the stats discussed. Projecting a career year for 30+ year old RBs, that's solid fantasy strategy? ADP of the early 5th? Ehhhh. Lower ADP guys much safer, Edge, Bowe, Jennings maybe even Harrison. Edge KILLED him last year, and has a lower ADP. He's had 6 carries for 18 yards this preseason (I saw one game) and he didn't look very explosive. We hear all this sleeper TJ nonsense last year, how did he work out as your RB2 last year? RB3? RB4? Buuuust. Unlike a fine wine, TJ isn't getting better with age (tds, yards, ypc going down). Lets pick a journeymen RB, who's been average his whole life, give him a QB, OH SNAP suppa sleppa. People in FF this time of year totally forget the past, reinvent players all the time, and will see only the good. Look at Clayton. People are STILL hyping him up. Clayton has started 40 games, 60 catches, 1 td the last 3 years. *LOL* Are you kidding me? Hey Deuce got a new TE. VALUE. Ahman Green just got a year older, BOOYA.5th round for TJ. *lol* Come on. You're dreaming. Draft a solid WR2, top 6 QB, top 3 TE, or Thomas freaking Jones. And Jamal Lewis worked out great, you had to draft him 5 times to get 1 good year. I love those odds. Firs his prison sentence slowed him down. Then it was ogden getting hurt. Then he was a big back who didn't age well. He went from 1st rnd, to 2nd, to 3rd, to 4th, to 8th. If you love TJ that much, you drafted him last year, and got burned. And yeah, I'm a little down on TJ. So please, don't lecture us on pegging players. If you pegged TJ as a bust his whole career, you didn't miss much. If you drafted TJ every year for the last 5 years, you've been the one losing out.

Dear Stuart Scott: don't drink and post. FYI this isn't 2003. True last year was disappointing, but I wouldn't say it exactly sucked how he went for 1300/9 and 1200/6 in 05 and 06, on laughable CHI teams no less. If you don't want guys like that on your team, to each their own, but most of us wouldn't mind too much, and it's debatable at worst which T Jones will show up this year.Basically, considering a career year from a guy who has (more or less) gotten better with age and finds himself surrounded by the best offense he's ever been on BY FAR (admittedly by default) isn't such a massive reach. But having said all that, I agree that some are overrating just how good of a year he'll have (due to the well-worn "Favre factor").

 

[vamphyri]

No offense, but why do you keep starting multiple threads on the same players on threads YOU started? Is there a reason you felt the need to start 2 TJ threads like you did 2 Josh Morgan threads the other day?

 

[Banger]

TJ why he won't do all those things:1. he is old2. leon washington3. he is old

4. He's never had double digit tds before5. He's never had 1,500 total yards before6. his numbers are declining the past two years7. he's related to julius jones8. He had ***1*** TD last year. 9. projecting career years for journeymen 30 year old rbs. Fun fun fun

How many td's did Witten have the year before last? You guys have to get off the age thing. He's got a good QB (for the 1st time in his career), a vastly improved line and he'll get the lionshare of the carries (like he did last year). I liken this to Jamal's situation last year but Jamal was even in a worse spot because he was battling ankle injuries for a few years prior to Clev so there was more uncertainty. He was a talented back, the team invested heavily in their line, their QB play improved a lot and then you get a top 10 back for a guy that was drafted in the late teens/early 20's among RB's. What's so different here?Things change each year and as situations change (new qb's, new lines) you have to adjust your perceptions on players. Too often I see fantasy players pigeon hole players and not take the external factors into consideration. T. Jones will make a very solid #2 this year and I'll be targetting him in every draft.

Oh snap. A lack of a QB has been holding TJ back for the last 7 years? Dayum! How did AD do it? Oh wait, he's GOOD. Gore? Lynch? 100+ more RBs who get it done without a good QB. Stop making excuses, the guy isn't very good.And all this TJ stuff people said last year. Finally he gets to start, no more Benson, no more crappy Bears. Blah blah blah. He's 30. He's been an average RB all his life. He's never reached the stats discussed. Projecting a career year for 30+ year old RBs, that's solid fantasy strategy? ADP of the early 5th? Ehhhh. Lower ADP guys much safer, Edge, Bowe, Jennings maybe even Harrison. Edge KILLED him last year, and has a lower ADP. He's had 6 carries for 18 yards this preseason (I saw one game) and he didn't look very explosive. We hear all this sleeper TJ nonsense last year, how did he work out as your RB2 last year? RB3? RB4? Buuuust. Unlike a fine wine, TJ isn't getting better with age (tds, yards, ypc going down). Lets pick a journeymen RB, who's been average his whole life, give him a QB, OH SNAP suppa sleppa. People in FF this time of year totally forget the past, reinvent players all the time, and will see only the good. Look at Clayton. People are STILL hyping him up. Clayton has started 40 games, 60 catches, 1 td the last 3 years. *LOL* Are you kidding me? Hey Deuce got a new TE. VALUE. Ahman Green just got a year older, BOOYA.5th round for TJ. *lol* Come on. You're dreaming. Draft a solid WR2, top 6 QB, top 3 TE, or Thomas freaking Jones. And Jamal Lewis worked out great, you had to draft him 5 times to get 1 good year. I love those odds. Firs his prison sentence slowed him down. Then it was ogden getting hurt. Then he was a big back who didn't age well. He went from 1st rnd, to 2nd, to 3rd, to 4th, to 8th. If you love TJ that much, you drafted him last year, and got burned. And yeah, I'm a little down on TJ. So please, don't lecture us on pegging players. If you pegged TJ as a bust his whole career, you didn't miss much. If you drafted TJ every year for the last 5 years, you've been the one losing out.

Not sure how to respond to that...

 

[The Stookie Bros]

All of those reasons you said will make the Jets a better running team, but you forget how good Leon Washington is. He is going to command more touches this year and this will take away from TJ. He won't have the opportumity to be a RB1 for that reason.

 

[Scooby1974]

TJ why he won't do all those things:1. he is old2. leon washington3. he is old

4. He's never had double digit tds before5. He's never had 1,500 total yards before6. his numbers are declining the past two years7. he's related to julius jones8. He had ***1*** TD last year. 9. projecting career years for journeymen 30 year old rbs. Fun fun fun

How many td's did Witten have the year before last? You guys have to get off the age thing. He's got a good QB (for the 1st time in his career), a vastly improved line and he'll get the lionshare of the carries (like he did last year). I liken this to Jamal's situation last year but Jamal was even in a worse spot because he was battling ankle injuries for a few years prior to Clev so there was more uncertainty. He was a talented back, the team invested heavily in their line, their QB play improved a lot and then you get a top 10 back for a guy that was drafted in the late teens/early 20's among RB's. What's so different here?Things change each year and as situations change (new qb's, new lines) you have to adjust your perceptions on players. Too often I see fantasy players pigeon hole players and not take the external factors into consideration. T. Jones will make a very solid #2 this year and I'll be targetting him in every draft.

Oh snap. A lack of a QB has been holding TJ back for the last 7 years? Dayum! How did AD do it? Oh wait, he's GOOD. Gore? Lynch? 100+ more RBs who get it done without a good QB. Stop making excuses, the guy isn't very good.And all this TJ stuff people said last year. Finally he gets to start, no more Benson, no more crappy Bears. Blah blah blah. He's 30. He's been an average RB all his life. He's never reached the stats discussed. Projecting a career year for 30+ year old RBs, that's solid fantasy strategy? ADP of the early 5th? Ehhhh. Lower ADP guys much safer, Edge, Bowe, Jennings maybe even Harrison. Edge KILLED him last year, and has a lower ADP. He's had 6 carries for 18 yards this preseason (I saw one game) and he didn't look very explosive. We hear all this sleeper TJ nonsense last year, how did he work out as your RB2 last year? RB3? RB4? Buuuust. Unlike a fine wine, TJ isn't getting better with age (tds, yards, ypc going down). Lets pick a journeymen RB, who's been average his whole life, give him a QB, OH SNAP suppa sleppa. People in FF this time of year totally forget the past, reinvent players all the time, and will see only the good. Look at Clayton. People are STILL hyping him up. Clayton has started 40 games, 60 catches, 1 td the last 3 years. *LOL* Are you kidding me? Hey Deuce got a new TE. VALUE. Ahman Green just got a year older, BOOYA.5th round for TJ. *lol* Come on. You're dreaming. Draft a solid WR2, top 6 QB, top 3 TE, or Thomas freaking Jones. And Jamal Lewis worked out great, you had to draft him 5 times to get 1 good year. I love those odds. Firs his prison sentence slowed him down. Then it was ogden getting hurt. Then he was a big back who didn't age well. He went from 1st rnd, to 2nd, to 3rd, to 4th, to 8th. If you love TJ that much, you drafted him last year, and got burned. And yeah, I'm a little down on TJ. So please, don't lecture us on pegging players. If you pegged TJ as a bust his whole career, you didn't miss much. If you drafted TJ every year for the last 5 years, you've been the one losing out.

Oh snap, dayum, fo-shizzle.........AD did it with the best line in football and a great D. Gore had 1500 yards and 6 TD's (not exactly amazing) and a better line, and a better D than the Jets. Lynch is younger, and his line was 10x better than TJ's, and they had half decent QB play. If little to nothing changed for the Jets I'd agree with your arguments that TJ will likely put up the same numbers. As it stands the Jets have improved in nearly every facet of offense and defense in the off-season. To project that Jones' stats stay the same or get worse due to one more year of age with no injury despite the major changes they have made in the offseason [a) new All-Pro QB b) signed a great FB c) WR play will be better due to Favre's presence. d) A young TE that cant stretch the field that has a QB that loves the TE position e) an improving Defense f) huge upgrades on the O-line] is ignorant. Sure you can take the past into account and learn from it, but the difference in last year's Jets team and the team that exists today is Night and Day different.Facts are facts...Fo Sho Dogg

 

[QUEZILLA]

I think that Thomas Jones will have a huge season this year (in relation to where he is being drafted...usually in the 4th round). I see a Jamal Lewis 2007 type season this year for TJ. Three reasons:1. The obvious...Brett Favre is now the Jets QB and will force teams to respect the pass, resulting in less 8 men in the box thus opening up running lanes for TJ.2. The addition of Alen Faneca. This is a huge OL upgrade and Big Ben has stated that Faneca was a huge part of the OL success for the Steelers.3. The addition of FB Tony Richardson. Tony has been the FB for three of the best FF RB's in the last decade or so - Priest, LJ and ADP last season.I think TJ should get 1400-1500 total yards, and 8-12 TDs this season, making him a solid RB1, and based on his ADP, an absolute steal.

I was high on all NYJ players before Favre for these same reasons.

 

[swirvenirvin]

I really don't get the hype and now that Favre this and that is going to make him sooooo much better

The 2005 Green Bay Packers with this same AWESOME Brett Favre rushed for 11td's and 3.4 avg

2006 9 td's and 3.86 avg, so why all the hype now?

When Favre moved over to the Jets I gave TJ 2 more TD's (for 6 total) and bumped up toal yardage about 100 yards to (1320)

 

[Scooby1974]

I really don't get the hype and now that Favre this and that is going to make him sooooo much betterThe 2005 Green Bay Packers with this same AWESOME Brett Favre rushed for 11td's and 3.4 avg2006 9 td's and 3.86 avg, so why all the hype now?When Favre moved over to the Jets I gave TJ 2 more TD's (for 6 total) and bumped up toal yardage about 100 yards to (1320)

I don't think the Jets WR's are nearly as good or numerous as GB's were so they won't command the ball quite as much. The addition of Favre and less productive WR's will still stretch the field and will give TJ more room and more opportunity to run.Why are you bringing up 2005 and 2006 GB stats?

 

[Banger]

I really don't get the hype and now that Favre this and that is going to make him sooooo much betterThe 2005 Green Bay Packers with this same AWESOME Brett Favre rushed for 11td's and 3.4 avg2006 9 td's and 3.86 avg, so why all the hype now?When Favre moved over to the Jets I gave TJ 2 more TD's (for 6 total) and bumped up toal yardage about 100 yards to (1320)

It's not just Favre, if it were, he wouldn't even be on my list. It's a huge mistake to look at the QB (Favre) and then say look at their production in '05, it sucked. Their line was god awful, that's why the RB's sucked, not to mention A. Green was hurt. I think Jones will improve due to the upgrade of the line. Lines make RB's, look at SA before/after, LJ before/after and on down the list. They went out and addressed the line bigtime and this is what caught my attention and TJ has been on my list ever since. The addition of Favre is gravy and will only help.

 

[Shiggy Shaol]

All of those reasons you said will make the Jets a better running team, but you forget how good Leon Washington is. He is going to command more touches this year and this will take away from TJ. He won't have the opportumity to be a RB1 for that reason.

I agree with you that Leon is extremely talented. But I don't view him as a big threat to Jones' carries this year. A lot of locals (I'm in NY) view Leon as a present-day Dave Meggett type. I don't necessarily agree with that because he's a good deal sturdier than Meggett was but he really won't be used as the main back on a full Jets' possession. He wouldn't hold up very long in that situation. Put me in the camp that believes Thomas Jones is ready for a SOLID year. I'd be very comfortable with him as my #2 back.

 

[davearm]

If anyone's got access to the historical data (the last 10 years, say), and is up for a little research project, I'd be curious to know a) how many RBs have managed to gain 1300+ combined yards and only score 1 TD, and b) the average number of TDs for that universe of RBs with 1300+ yards.

My guess is the answer to a) is very few, and the answer to b) is somewhere in the 6-9 range.

So long as you think Jones is going to remain in the 1300+ club in 2008, then a sizeable boost in his TD production is in order. And frankly that's just based on the stats... not on Favre, or the bolstered OLine, or any of the other factors that might suggest even greater improvement might be in store.

Bottom line, Jones had a very solid year last year that's obscured by an abnormally low TD total. He should be just as good this year (maybe better), and there's no reason his TD total shouldn't rebound back to the normal range. Heck maybe this is the year he has an abnormally high TD total, like Willie Parker's 16 in '06.

 

[burd]

ok, ill admit that i haven't been paying much attention to the Jets RB situation. But this thread has peaked my interest at picking up TJ as a #2 or #3 RB.

I think that even the biggest Jet-hater will admit that the addition of Faneca will improve run and pass blocking. Also, I do believe that the addition of Favre will make defenses honor the pass more.

But it was mentioned above that Leon Washington is a better back and will steal carries from TJ. As i mentioned, i have been paying little attention to the Jets RBs, so I don't know how accurate this statement is. I'd appreciate a comment from staff about the TJ/Leon situation. What's the talent difference between TJ and Leon?

Also, I think the TDs are overstated for TJ. I think Mangini will go to Favre more often in goaline. 5 TDs for TJ seems more reasonable.

 

[Scooby1974]

ok, ill admit that i haven't been paying much attention to the Jets RB situation. But this thread has peaked my interest at picking up TJ as a #2 or #3 RB. I think that even the biggest Jet-hater will admit that the addition of Faneca will improve run and pass blocking. Also, I do believe that the addition of Favre will make defenses honor the pass more. But it was mentioned above that Leon Washington is a better back and will steal carries from TJ. As i mentioned, i have been paying little attention to the Jets RBs, so I don't know how accurate this statement is. I'd appreciate a comment from staff about the TJ/Leon situation. What's the talent difference between TJ and Leon? Also, I think the TDs are overstated for TJ. I think Mangini will go to Favre more often in goaline. 5 TDs for TJ seems more reasonable.

Go to Favre at the goaline? What do you mean? Cotchery is 6'...Coles 5'11"....not exactly the "throw it up for a jump ball type". Keller might be in line for some more looks from the TE position. I think that with the addition of Richardson at FB, the odds are the Jets take more chances of running the ball into the endzone thereby giving TJones more opps.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I think that Thomas Jones will have a huge season this year (in relation to where he is being drafted...usually in the 4th round). I see a Jamal Lewis 2007 type season this year for TJ. Three reasons:1. The obvious...Brett Favre is now the Jets QB and will force teams to respect the pass, resulting in less 8 men in the box thus opening up running lanes for TJ.2. The addition of Alen Faneca. This is a huge OL upgrade and Big Ben has stated that Faneca was a huge part of the OL success for the Steelers.3. The addition of FB Tony Richardson. Tony has been the FB for three of the best FF RB's in the last decade or so - Priest, LJ and ADP last season.I think TJ should get 1400-1500 total yards, and 8-12 TDs this season, making him a solid RB1, and based on his ADP, an absolute steal.

Everything you say about the Jets team is spot on. EXCEPT TJ is simply a poor starting Rb in the NFL. He has little speed and is not quick. He is a powerful guy who can catch the ball, but if you lineup RB's in the NFL the guy is in the bottom 3rd talent wise. Leon Washington is a solid COP guy and now they have Musa Smith and Chatman who or effective backups. the Jets running attack will be much improved but TJ will not be the sole beneficiary of the increase.

 

[Nate]

This has all already been discussed ad nauseum, hasn't it?

I seriously doubt we're going to see his rushing TDs go from 1 to 8. But TJ has had over 1300 all purpose yards 4 years running. I expect a slight increase there with the offensive line help alone, and a bit more time in the red zone due in part to Favre. Even if the improvements on the offense amount to only an extra hundred yards

and 3 TDs, he represents big value at an ADP of 40.

ETA: Of course he's not going to get 100% of the carries. The Jets ran 446 times last year. I'll take 60% of that.

ETA2: I would not draft him as my RB1, but I think he could be a great RB2, and he's being drafted near RB3.

 

[Shiggy Shaol]

I think that Thomas Jones will have a huge season this year (in relation to where he is being drafted...usually in the 4th round). I see a Jamal Lewis 2007 type season this year for TJ. Three reasons:1. The obvious...Brett Favre is now the Jets QB and will force teams to respect the pass, resulting in less 8 men in the box thus opening up running lanes for TJ.2. The addition of Alen Faneca. This is a huge OL upgrade and Big Ben has stated that Faneca was a huge part of the OL success for the Steelers.3. The addition of FB Tony Richardson. Tony has been the FB for three of the best FF RB's in the last decade or so - Priest, LJ and ADP last season.I think TJ should get 1400-1500 total yards, and 8-12 TDs this season, making him a solid RB1, and based on his ADP, an absolute steal.

Leon Washington is a solid COP guy and now they have Musa Smith and Chatman who or effective backups. the Jets running attack will be much improved but TJ will not be the sole beneficiary of the increase.

Rumblings that one of Musa/Chatman will be cut by the end of the preseason. The one left will strictly be a backup in case of injury to TJ or Leon.

 

[Scooby1974]

Thomas Jones ranked 10th in rushing yards last year behind a TERRIBLE offensive line. He outrushed the likes of Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore, Addai, Fargas, Jacobs, SJax, Barber, Grant, Graham, Maroney, and MJD.

Call him a poor starting RB if you want...but what does that make the rest of the guys he outrushed above? I'm not saying he'll outrush them ALL again, but if it happened last year behind a terrible line and all the Jets did was improve their line and QB and TE and by default their WR's and strengthened their D so as to get better field position...who is to say he can't?

 

[The Stookie Bros]

All of those reasons you said will make the Jets a better running team, but you forget how good Leon Washington is. He is going to command more touches this year and this will take away from TJ. He won't have the opportumity to be a RB1 for that reason.

I agree with you that Leon is extremely talented. But I don't view him as a big threat to Jones' carries this year. A lot of locals (I'm in NY) view Leon as a present-day Dave Meggett type. I don't necessarily agree with that because he's a good deal sturdier than Meggett was but he really won't be used as the main back on a full Jets' possession. He wouldn't hold up very long in that situation. Put me in the camp that believes Thomas Jones is ready for a SOLID year. I'd be very comfortable with him as my #2 back.

LW will definitely get more carries in 2008 then he got in 2007. Will he get more then TJ? Definitely not, but his explosiveness and big play ability will earn him more touches. I am a lifelong Jets fan and follow the team as closely as anyone. He has had a great pre-season and looks stronger and faster then ever. TJ will not have a blowup year as some are predicting. Depending on where you can get TJ, he can be a great value. But like alot of RB in his tier, i won't be too upset if i can't grab him.

 

[swirvenirvin]

I really don't get the hype and now that Favre this and that is going to make him sooooo much betterThe 2005 Green Bay Packers with this same AWESOME Brett Favre rushed for 11td's and 3.4 avg2006 9 td's and 3.86 avg, so why all the hype now?When Favre moved over to the Jets I gave TJ 2 more TD's (for 6 total) and bumped up toal yardage about 100 yards to (1320)

I don't think the Jets WR's are nearly as good or numerous as GB's were so they won't command the ball quite as much. The addition of Favre and less productive WR's will still stretch the field and will give TJ more room and more opportunity to run.Why are you bringing up 2005 and 2006 GB stats?

Well it seems to be a common theme that after Favre signed Jones instantly bumped up 2 rounds. Favre had a good year last year, but the two before that were very medicore

 

[davearm]

If anyone's got access to the historical data (the last 10 years, say), and is up for a little research project, I'd be curious to know a) how many RBs have managed to gain 1300+ combined yards and only score 1 TD, and b) the average number of TDs for that universe of RBs with 1300+ yards.My guess is the answer to a) is very few, and the answer to b) is somewhere in the 6-9 range.So long as you think Jones is going to remain in the 1300+ club in 2008, then a sizeable boost in his TD production is in order. And frankly that's just based on the stats... not on Favre, or the bolstered OLine, or any of the other factors that might suggest even greater improvement might be in store.Bottom line, Jones had a very solid year last year that's obscured by an abnormally low TD total. He should be just as good this year (maybe better), and there's no reason his TD total shouldn't rebound back to the normal range. Heck maybe this is the year he has an abnormally high TD total, like Willie Parker's 16 in '06.

I used the Data Dominator to answer my own question.Since 2002, there have been 59 RB-seasons in which the RB logged between 1200 and 1500 rush+rec yards.Here is the frequency distribution of TDs for this sample:

TDs   Count2	 33	 24	 15	 66	 107	 108	 89	 710	511	012	213	214	115	2

As you can see, in 2007 Jones was one of only 3 guys with 1200-1500 yards to score as few as 2 TDs. (Parker '07 and Pittman '03 are the others).A guy's just as likely to score 10+ TDs (12 of 59) as to score 5 or less TDs (also 12 of 59). The greatest likelihood, though, is a total between 6 and 9 (35 of 59).Average is 7.6, standard deviation is 3.0.All of which is to say, any reasonable projection for Jones in 2008 will incorporate a big boost in TDs... provided you're willing to assume his yardage total remains in the 1200-1500 range, as it has been in each of the last 4 years.

 

[hostile]

Two words why TJ and the new OLine are not going to be what the hype says they will be: "Bill Callahan".

He's managed to ruin every O-line he's been involved with. Maybe Faneca can counter-balance Callahan, but money is on "not".

 

[The Stookie Bros]

Thomas Jones-250 Carries-1050 Yrds-5 TDs

Leon Washington-150 Carries-750 yards-6 TDs

 

[Shiggy Shaol]

Thomas Jones-250 Carries-1050 Yrds-5 TDsLeon Washington-150 Carries-750 yards-6 TDs

You really loves you some Leon. I love him on the field, but not nearly as much as you in the statbook.

 

[BigRed]

I seem to remember a lot of this Washington hype last year. Yet in more than half their games he got 4 or less carries. Why is that going to jump way up?

 

[PahtyTom]

He's pretty average. He's in a better situation than last year, but he's also another year older and took another years worth of hits. I see him around 1200 and 6.

 

[FantasyTrader]

He's pretty average. He's in a better situation than last year, but he's also another year older and took another years worth of hits. I see him around 1200 and 6.

Do you realize you're describing a borderline top 10 fantasy back from last year?

 

[PahtyTom]

He's pretty average. He's in a better situation than last year, but he's also another year older and took another years worth of hits. I see him around 1200 and 6.

Do you realize you're describing a borderline top 10 fantasy back from last year?

I don't get it, so no, I guess not.

 

[Reaper]

I seem to remember a lot of this Washington hype last year. Yet in more than half their games he got 4 or less carries. Why is that going to jump way up?

Not sure about way up.... And I don't have the numbers but, I'd imagine that with improved QB play and Improved OL play, the Jets will get to run more plays and be in better situations to utilize Leon's skillz. Last year the Jets offense was a mess and couldn't get out of it's own way - Mostly due to the OL.Even with Favre, I imagine this offense is looking to control the clock and run as much as possible.I wonder how the "offensive plays called" compares from 06' to 07'....

 

[sho nuff]

I really don't get the hype and now that Favre this and that is going to make him sooooo much betterThe 2005 Green Bay Packers with this same AWESOME Brett Favre rushed for 11td's and 3.4 avg2006 9 td's and 3.86 avg, so why all the hype now?When Favre moved over to the Jets I gave TJ 2 more TD's (for 6 total) and bumped up toal yardage about 100 yards to (1320)

You bring up a year with Samkon Gado and replacing 2 guards as proof of something about Favre and the Packers?Really?

 

[Scooby1974]

He's pretty average. He's in a better situation than last year, but he's also another year older and took another years worth of hits. I see him around 1200 and 6.

Do you realize you're describing a borderline top 10 fantasy back from last year?

I don't get it, so no, I guess not.

He is saying that 1200 yards and 6 TD's would be a borderline top 10 RB according to last years stats. You are basically saying what the rest of us are......that TJ could go for 1200/6+ TD's this year and be a good #2 RB...

 

[Scooby1974]

FYI...looks like the experts also agree that TJ could have a very good year... OR are they all wrong?

Sigmund Bloom - With the addition of Brett Favre, defenses will no longer be able to put eight in the box against New York because they have to respect the deep pass. The Jets offense got a huge shot in the arm in the form of Favre, and Thomas Jones should be one of the main beneficiaries. He's sure to improve his touchdown total from last year and should be a solid RB2 you can get in the fourth round.

Andy Hicks - One of the biggest winners from the circus surrounding the arrival of Brett Favre will be Thomas Jones. The Jets didn't draft a fancied Running Back as many predicted, nor did they sign a good one in free agency. Add in the improvements to the offensive line, the solid receivers and Thomas Jones will get all kinds of room with opposing defenses lining up to catch potential Favre interceptions. Jones struggled with injury in 2007 and will certainly increase his touchdown production. All the pieces are in place for massive improvement in 2008.

Marc Levin - The New York Jets invested heavily in their running game, signing a multitude of offensive lineman and, most importantly, Pro Bowl FB Tony Richardson. You remember Richardson, right? He opened holes for Adrian Peterson last year, and for Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes in their heydays. Considering the Jets were already 13th in the league in rush attempts, there is a lot of upside potential for this RB23. Expect Jones to compete for a RB1-worthy fantasy finish.

Jeff Pasquino - Jones was one of the biggest beneficiaries during the NFL Draft as the Jets passed on a young RB option. The ability to get a starting RB of his caliber at RB25 is a nice bonus, considering that he had over 1,000 yards on the ground last year. What kept Jones out of the Top15 in 2007 was the lack of touchdowns, so if he gets in the end zone 6-7 times, you are looking at a borderline Top 12 RB.

Aaron Rudnicki - The Jets have made some massive upgrades on both sides of the ball, which should lead to a much improved running game. They signed one of the league's best guards in Alan Faneca and best fullbacks in Tony Richardson, which should help open up bigger holes for Jones to run through. They also traded for Brett Favre, which should force defenses to respect the deep pass a lot more than they used to and that will give Jones more room to run. Lastly, they've made some key upgrades on defense that should allow them to get off the field quicker and give the offense the ball in better field position. All those factors combined with a weaker schedule should make Jones one of this year's best values on draft day.

Mark Wimer - Thomas Jones is one of those rare "featured" backs that every fantasy owner craves, but people are put off by his weak TD totals from last season. Don't be deceived - the Jets' offense will be muc stronger this year, especially since Brett Favre's arrival brings back the credible threat of deep passes - Jones' scoring and fantasy points should rebound to mid-teen levels at his position. The team dramatically improved their OL and also brought in fine lead-blocker Tony Richardson (who has led the way for Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson and Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor (Min) so far in his career) and TE Bubba Franks (a good run blocker) to bolster the OL's efforts.

David Yudkin - Jones joins Edge and LT as the only three RBs to have amassed 1,300 yards from scrimmage the past four seasons. The only thing that changed statistically was Jones' minimal TD total. The Jets made huge upgrades to their OL and the QB position, making Jones in line for a run at the Top 10.

 

[PahtyTom]

He's pretty average. He's in a better situation than last year, but he's also another year older and took another years worth of hits. I see him around 1200 and 6.

Do you realize you're describing a borderline top 10 fantasy back from last year?

I don't get it, so no, I guess not.

He is saying that 1200 yards and 6 TD's would be a borderline top 10 RB according to last years stats. You are basically saying what the rest of us are......that TJ could go for 1200/6+ TD's this year and be a good #2 RB...

1200 and 6 was good for RB 20 in my big league. I'd say TJ is an average to low end #2 RB without the upside to become a #1 RB.

 

[cstu]

I really don't get the hype and now that Favre this and that is going to make him sooooo much betterThe 2005 Green Bay Packers with this same AWESOME Brett Favre rushed for 11td's and 3.4 avg2006 9 td's and 3.86 avg, so why all the hype now?When Favre moved over to the Jets I gave TJ 2 more TD's (for 6 total) and bumped up toal yardage about 100 yards to (1320)

Ahman Green had over 1400 total yards and 6 TD's with a Packers OL that was much worse that the current Jets OL. Also, Green was 29 and only played 14 games. You're not helping yourself here.